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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-ceasefire-deal-trumps-deadline-reopen-strait-hormuz-2026-04-07 https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-war-live-tehran-rejects-c...
- IAmGraydon 7mo agoThe fact that so many people on this thread believe any of this is real is really a sobering reminder. The entire thing, top to bottom, is theater.
- gib444 7mo agoTo which extent exactly? The images of destruction are faked? I know what you're saying just not sure how literally to take your words
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- torlok 7mo agoThe talks are theater. Trump is running around like a headless chicken, so it may look like a lot of "diplomacy" is happening, but if you look at the Iranian side, they remain in control over the strait, and their demands haven't changed. The fact that Iran agreed to talk is because Trump caved-in enough.
- gib444 7mo agoI find it a little odd when you're clarifying someone's comment and someone else wades in and replies (without even a "not the person you replied to but ..")
- wileydragonfly 7mo agoClown world.
- oyebenny 7mo agoInteresting, if the Mossad appears to be in the comments.
- g-b-r 7mo agoTwo weeks who would have guessed xD
- commiepatrol 7mo agoCame here to say this
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- xarchive 7mo ago[flagged]
- verdverm 7mo agoIt seems to be more likely on the unlikely side because (1) Iran planned for distributed operations (2) missiles are still apparently flying, speculated that any agreement may not have disbursed to all the independently operating groups (3) your point, it's unclear if there is any actual agreement (4) is Israel party to this agreement, will they honor any such agreement? Same for Hezbollah and Hamas
- Computer0 7mo agoNYT is reporting that Pakistan is saying the Ayatollah agreed, and it was due to Chinese pressure regarding the global economy.
- rasz 7mo agoProbably not since they just launched a barrage of ballistic missiles.
- MegagramEnjoyer 7mo ago[flagged]
- verdverm 7mo agolike a healthcare plan, always 2-3 weeks away
- Sabinus 7mo agoTrump said "repeal and replace Obamacare" so many times during his first term I can clearly hear it in my head in his voice.
- vjvjvjvjghv 7mo agoNot only Trump. Most Republicans want to repeal. They are just struggling a little with the replace part.
- Computer0 7mo agoA thread documenting a market reaction just before the announcement: https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1sf8u1e/iran_megathread/ https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1sf8u1e/iran_...
- underdeserver 7mo agoThank goodness. Let's hope some peace and quiet comes out of this.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- notyourwork 7mo ago[flagged]
- doener 7mo agoTACO
- orwin 7mo agoIt's not, i don't think so. For the first time Trump did a belligerent announcement while the market were open, and not on a late Friday. as expected, the market cratered. Then 4 hours later, this announcement? Crazy coincidence (which it might be, but frankly when it come to market manipulation, i think this admin has lost the benefit of the doubt).
- atmavatar 7mo agoIsn't that precisely the definition of TACO, though? Trump does a thing, the market goes down as a result, so he does a 180 on the thing. That he may also be doing it to lower prices for friends and family so they can buy up stocks just before he does a reversal and the market rebounds, making them all a lot of money, is immaterial to whether this counts as TACO.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- saladdays 7mo agoWhat is even the point of all the flip flopping if there’s ongoing talks? I feel like the doesn’t put any real pressure on Iran, but I may be uninformed.
- zb3 7mo agoMarket manipulation..
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- rasz 7mo agoThere are no talks.
- le-mark 7mo agoTrump is cornered. There is no “winning” this for him. Expect Iran to get some major concessions that Trump will talk up as win.
- loloquwowndueo 7mo agoAll he does is flip flop. Was the same with tariffs against everyone last year - he kept backing off at the last moment.
- joshgachnang 7mo agoAmusing that it's on a Tuesday again. TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) Tuesday.
- moralestapia 7mo agoHelp me understand. Isn't it a good thing that Iran wasn't blown to pieces?
- doener 7mo agoSeems like Trump agreed to give Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz: https://xcancel.com/araghchi/status/2041655156215799821 https://xcancel.com/araghchi/status/2041655156215799821
- readthenotes1 7mo ago[flagged]
- acdha 7mo agoWhat they didn’t have until last month. If this ends with Iran being able to tax shipping, it’s a major change.
- AnimalMuppet 7mo agoWhat in that do you read as "Trump agreed to give Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz"? For two weeks, you're going to have to consult with Iran to get through the straits.
- small_model 7mo ago"Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced that Iran has achieved a major victory, compelling the United States to accept its 10-point plan. Under this plan, the U.S. has committed to non-aggression, recognized Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, accepted Iran’s nuclear enrichment, lifted all primary and secondary sanctions, ended all Security Council and Board of Governors resolutions, agreed to pay compensation to Iran, withdrawn American combat forces from the region, and ceased hostilities on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon." Can't see this holding
- lbreakjai 7mo agoI don't buy it. The only way this could be more humiliating for the US is if Trump agreed to do a public apology from Tehran. No way the Gulf countries and Israel would even entertain the thought.
- surgical_fire 7mo agoI wonder how badly damaged the Gulf countries as Israel were in the past few days. I have the impression a lot of the damage caused by Iran is being hidden and downplayed.
- alchemism 7mo agoNone of the targets have anything remotely resembling free press. So yes, the real effects were censored.
- dinkumthinkum 7mo agoWith all due respect, I feel people that hold your views would believe it if someone told them that not only did Iran complete defeat and demoralize the U.S. war power in Iran, that Iran has actually successfully bombed the U.S. into submission and the U.S. essentially no longer exists except as a vassal to Iran. I really think there is no Anti-American narrative that is too ludicrous for people that hold this view to believe. I actually find it fascinating.
- anonym00se1 7mo ago[flagged]
- TheGuyWhoCodes 7mo ago[flagged]
- mupuff1234 7mo ago[flagged]
- anonym00se1 7mo agoI'm specifically referring to the attacks on Iran that started this mess ~6 weeks ago. If the US and Iran agree, but Israel decides to continue bombing campaigns, then this ceasefire will be very short-lived.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- master_crab 7mo agoDeclaring someone an enemy does not automatically lead to war. America considered the USSR an enemy of democracy for 50 years. They never went directly to blows.
- mupuff1234 7mo agoSure, but Iran did sponsor proxies that did attack Israel. And whether something is direct war or proxy war feels more like meaningless semantics imo. Historically speaking I think it's clear Iran has been the aggressor in this specific conflict. Not that I think Israel took smart actions, but that's a different matter.
- Ancapistani 7mo agoKorea was a proxy war between the US and China - which is very different from a direct war between those two countries, wouldn’t you say?
- hightrix 7mo agotrumps supreme negotiation skills have gotten us a worse agreement than before the senseless, baseless, and aggressive attack on Iran. What a complete moron.
- megamike 7mo agoIran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz 10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations
- Bubble1296 7mo agoWhat about the other Middle East countries involved such as the UAE and what about Europe?
- surgical_fire 7mo agoEurope, thankfully, stayed out of this mess. Some countries even rejected to even give logistical support to the US.
- natpalmer1776 7mo agoI wonder if uninvolved nations will also be required to pay the safe passage fees.
- giantg2 7mo agoAside from Iranian allies, it seems likely.
- natpalmer1776 7mo agoSo this would have the downstream effect of further degrading international sentiment towards US military operations in the future.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
- 3eb7988a1663 7mo ago"We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated." The ten point plan which had previously been rejected outright? The 10-point plan which leaves Iran in an incredibly better financial position? So, apart from blowing up children, what did the US gain out of this?
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- 7thpower 7mo agoI don’t know, but I hear the Trump boys are going to be doing a JV on some gold plated Persian toll booths. That family has unreal foresight.
- eclipticplane 7mo ago> what did the US gain out of this Market manipulation and the media largely forgetting about a certain set of files that reference many people in powerful positions.
- Spooky23 7mo agoYeah the friends and family made a fortune from this, and we are teed up for the WTI options date which is… two weeks from today.
- koolba 7mo agoHow much did Iran make? There’s plenty of unregulated futures markets for them to make a massive short bet on oil.
- Krssst 7mo agoLess oil on the market meaning higher fuel prices with the US being a net exporter. Not sure that was the plan but it looks like a benefit.
- xnx 7mo ago"'Two weeks' is one of President Trump’s favorite units of time. It can mean something, or nothing at all." https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/world/middleeast/trump-iran-two-weeks.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/world/middleeast/trump-ir...
- rasz 7mo agoUS just agreed to: Commitment to non-aggression Continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz Acceptance of uranium enrichment Lifting of all primary sanctions Lifting of all secondary sanctions Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions Payment of compensation to Iran Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region Cessation of war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon TLDR US lost the war, hilarious.
- pageandrew 7mo agoSource? Do you seriously think the US just agreed to accept Iranian nuclear enrichment?
- etc-hosts 7mo agoThe CIA (lets for now ignore the alleged Director of the CIA) has for years been saying Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program. Iran has been saying for years it does not have a nuclear weapons program. Every country has the right to pursue a civilian nuclear energy program.
- pageandrew 7mo agoThe IAEA said earlier this year that Iran had enriched uranium to 60%. Uranium is enriched to 3-5% for nuclear energy, and 90%+ for weapons. Don't be silly. Iran has a nuclear weapons program. Were they actively racing to a bomb? No. (That's what the CIA was saying). Did they enrich uranium to near-weapons grade so they _could_ race to a bomb, in a matter of weeks, if they decided to do so? Absolutely. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-stored-highly-enriched-uranium-underground-site-iaea-report-says-2026-02-27 https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-stored-highly...
- richwater 7mo agoIt's as if the person your replying to is intentionally being misleading
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- 100ms 7mo agoI don't understand enough about the US system of government. Are there any hopes of seeing Trump unseated before his term is up? If not for the astonishing damage he's doing to the western world, then only for the sheer fatigue from having every media outlet saturated by him on a daily basis.
- nirav72 7mo agoNope. Maybe a cheeseburger and mother nature.
- throwaway173738 7mo agoVance is actually worse. He’s basically a sock puppet for Peter Thiel.
- le-mark 7mo agoIf the Dems win the house in the midterms he will be impeached again. If there are 60 votes in the senate he will be out. Dems are unlikely to win the senate, let alone 60 seats. It’s a bizarre situation in that US elections have such a huge impact on a world that has no say.
- jjordan 7mo agoNeed 66 senate votes to impeach in the senate.
- etc-hosts 7mo agoTrump has been impeached before. Doesn't matter. The seriousness of the word 'impeachment' has been greatly devalued.
- vjvjvjvjghv 7mo agoIt has become a tool to fire up party supporters but otherwise achieves nothing.
- voidfunc 7mo ago[flagged]
- yoyohello13 7mo agoDon’t forget trans people. Those 4 trans women competing in sports was just too much to bear…
- parpfish 7mo agoWoah, don’t be so hasty. Those were just folks that take email security really seriously
- Gigachad 7mo agoIt wasn’t just morons. It was helped by greedy tech bros just as much who believed they might be able to enrich themselves in the process.
- jauntywundrkind 7mo agoEverything else aside, really relieved for the tanker crews stuck inside the Gulf, with no port that will take them, who are not-so-slowly running out of food. They can get out? Right? Right Anakin?
- slg 7mo agoI wonder why this post is worthy of staying on the HN front page but all the articles about Trump's threats that "A whole civilization will die tonight" got flag killed. I guess the president making genocidal threats isn't "interesting" enough to meet HN's moderation standards.
- Maken 7mo agoLet's just be glad somebody talked him out of using nukes. For now.
- hypeatei 7mo ago[flagged]
- dang 7mo agoI was just answering a similar comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47683437 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47683437.
- steve-atx-7600 7mo agoWe all know he’d say something like that and that there’s a chance he’d actually do it. It isn’t really newsworthy. This isn’t the set of minds that needs to change to affect change in the short term anyway.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- eeixlk 7mo ago[flagged]
- jacquesm 7mo ago[flagged]
- whateveracct 7mo ago[flagged]
- Krssst 7mo agoWe should be glad he did.
- idle_zealot 7mo agoWe already attacked Iran twice during "talks," is there any indication that we mean it this time, or are we just going to bomb them again while negotiations are ongoing?
- tdeck 7mo agoThis will be the one ceasefire that Israel respects?
- mhb 7mo ago[flagged]
- themafia 7mo agoThey underestimated Iran's unique mix of capabilities and strategy. It's not that Iran is undefeatable but it seems that the price is going to be far too high both globally and especially regionally for the tiny coalition of Israel and the US to succeed in the long term. I think it says something that the US paid such a high price to try to produce a "viral military campaign" video of a Uranium heist. Straight out of the cold war. The palatable options must be steadily dwindling.
- ignoramous 7mo ago> tiny coalition of Israel and the US This coalition is "tiny" insofar NATO & the GCC (well, apart from Bahrain and the UAE) refused to join the attacks, despite Iran's transgressions. The US could wage this war for many years all alone, and force the GCC to watch as the region burned. I guess, Trump's administration isn't willing to go as far as the current Israeli leadership may have hoped or wanted. That said, the war could very well still flare up, if the events from past 2 years following "talks" are any indicator.
- notepad0x90 7mo agoI just don't know how his supporters aren't embarrassed. Nominative determinism is insane. one man trumped the legacy and fortunes of a great nation.
- mcmcmc 7mo ago[flagged]
- dboreham 7mo agoIt's a self selection or axiomatic property: if you're his supporter then you have no capability for being embarrassed in the first place.
- RiverStone 7mo ago[flagged]
- blurbleblurble 7mo agoThey're utterly embarrassed it's just that they've been persistently encouraged via their amygdalas to project their own shame and insecurities onto others, as well as to swallow insane rationales as to why even though these people are evil it's a necessary bitter pill for the worldly government to swallow in order to bring in the eternal kingdom
- nickpeterson 7mo agoIf the USA walks away and lets every other country pay a new fee to Iran… That would be interesting…
- RiverStone 7mo agoIt will unify countries against Iran and maybe they’ll actually participate to open the strait like Trump asked them to
- tristanj 7mo agoIt will not happen. The only way Iran can enforce the fee is by actually shooting missiles at ships that don't pay. This is an act of war and terrorism; and in our current international order, is not viable solution. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other gulf countries, will never agree to it. Another reason it won't work -- by Iran's logic, every nation adjacent to a strait of water can levy a toll on ships that pass through. Why doesn't the UK charge tolls on ships that pass through the English channel, and bomb them if they don't pay up? The same logic applies to the Strait of Gibraltar (Spain, UK, Morocco) and the Strait of Malacca (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia).
- pjc50 7mo agoGibraltar's political situation is what it is because this was sorted out in the Treaty of Utrecht three hundred years ago, and Europe got very tired of leaders that thought they could redraw the map at the cost of millions of lives. Probably the best we can expect from Iran is a frozen conflict like Korea or Cyprus, that stays frozen.
- tristanj 7mo agoI disagree. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, run a financial economy, pay salaries, etc. Without fuel, there are no logistics; there is no capability to transport an army. Nor is there an ability to transport food; it would cause an enormous civilian crisis, and this would cause massive riots. Iran would collapse, within a week. It would collapse into factions, and a civil war would start, similar to in Syria. The US and Israel have been sitting on this the entire time. They don't want to do it, because it would cause near permanent economic damage to Iran. Once Iran showed it had no ability to prevent the US/Israel from doing a indiscriminate bombing campaign, it was clear the US and Israel could always win this war.
- cheriot 7mo agoLet's not forget the road to war started in 2016 when Trump walked into the White House at withdrew from the JCPOA. He's wanted the war for years, got it, and lost it.
- danny_codes 7mo agoHey now, the JCPOA was designed to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, and was working effectively at doing that. That’s completely different from what Trump is demanding now, which is to prevent Iran from getting nuclear.. Wait I think Trump dementia’d again
- HKH2 7mo agoIsrael would still get the US to attack Iran regardless.
- RiverStone 7mo ago[flagged]
- Nursie 7mo agoAnd where has that gone now? From all reports the regime has not lost control domestically, and internationally it is now emboldened - the US tried to get rid of them and has failed, and they have demonstrated their power to disrupt the region and much of the world's economy. They come out of this looking stronger.
- cheriot 7mo agoOne supreme leader replaced by another, even more hardline, supreme leader. Trump failed.
- Sanju_2306 7mo ago>Iranians danced in the streets when Khamenei was killed. And have felt hope for the first time in decades that they may change their government. This is a dumb take, I will guarantee that more people will dance on the street if Trump, or Modi gets killed, doesn't mean it is righteous to do that.
- vcryan 7mo ago[flagged]
- aorloff 7mo agoI felt it in my bones that Trump would see a way to agree to a 2 week extension
- SecretDreams 7mo agoLook, I'm glad we're pausing this. But I'd like to understand why an article on the pause shoots right to the top, but news of a tweet from the president indicating a plan to annihilate a whole country does not see a similar rise to the top.
- dang 7mo agoIt's too random a process to be precisely answerable about a specific data point or two. One could argue that this is a doing-something as opposed to a saying-something, and thus more substantive. Or perhaps people want some good news to believe in? I don't know - one can make up lots of just-so stories about these things (see paragraph 1).
- RevEng 7mo agoTrump tweets insane things hourly. A reputable news organization announcing something actually happening with quotes from both sides confirming is news worthy.
- steve-atx-7600 7mo agoI used to feel this way, but I think at this point you don’t need much of a brain to realize he’s a narcissist grifter that serves only himself without limit. A fellow gets tired of seeing his mouth shit all over the place. Peace/less killing is a positive break I’d much rather hear about.
- surgical_fire 7mo agoTrump says a lot of shit all the time, and often contradicts himself right after. Listening to what he has to say is nearly worthless. Better to react to his actions.
- chatmasta 7mo agoBetter article with text: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-war-ceasefire https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-w... > Israel will also agree to the two-week ceasefire, Axios reported, citing an Israeli official, adding that the ceasefire would enter effect as soon as the blockade of the strait of Hormuz ceased There’s the catch.
- nickvec 7mo agoYep. No way they’re opening the Strait of Hormuz until the US/Israel gets the fuck out of Iran.
- chasd00 7mo agoThey’re not in Iran. Both countries have announced an end to offensive operations in the past half hour or so.
- nickvec 7mo agoI thought it was only for two weeks? Unless I'm missing some big news.
- bawolff 7mo agoAnd no way US stops bombing them unless they open the strait (I say US because Israel doesnt care about the strait). I think such an agreement is plausible. Trump really cares about oil prices, and i imagine Iranian leadership would really like to stop being bombed.
- computerex 7mo ago[flagged]
- throwaway290 7mo ago[flagged]
- Levitating 7mo agoAn hour before the "deadline", by the way
- robinsoncrusue 7mo agoAlways look at the actions, not the talks. Reality on the ground is: US has been amassing troops in tens of thousands. Their mercenary IDF is claiming territory like a field day. Market has barely capitulated (which is the only thing this admin care about). I expect this is just Trump buying time until he launches ground invasion after two weeks of failed negotiation. You don't spend millions sending tens of thousands of soldiers and billion dollar worth of hardware to just call them back to base. Trump will "negotiate" and then in the middle of negotiation start a ground invasion just like they did in the past while they map all the military targets for ground invasion (which is hard to when missiles flying all the time). Possibly also replenish their interceptor stocks from other regions which has been running low. If you follow the kind of people advising him and have his ears (Witkoff, Kushner, Loomer, Levin) they are all for ground invasion. But yeah, win for US. Oil prices will rebound giving economy the breathing time. Possibly also time to arm the insurgents to regroup for regime change.
- surgical_fire 7mo agoTens of thousands of troops are not really enough to invade a country the size of Iran. The US used an order of magnitude more in Iraq, which had a third of the population, and a smaller and more geographically forgiving territory.
- BLKNSLVR 7mo agoYeah, but the Iranian armed forces have been obliterated...
- throw0101c 7mo agoJust like it's nuclear program…
- jasdfwasd 7mo agoTrump and Netanyahu believe they can win this one [1]: [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-wa...
- markus_zhang 7mo agoOK I guess it is pause time. US and Israel are probably restocking on whatever missiles they can get, while Iran doing the same, and Russian/China rushing stuffs to Iran through sea and railroad. At least I got a cheaper tank of gasoline tomorrow…
- chasd00 7mo agoGas won’t be any cheaper. While gas prices rise by the hour they take months to ever so slowly go down.
- s5300 7mo ago[dead]
- torlok 7mo agoThere's no ceasefire until Israel stops attacking. Iran retains control over the strait, and their demands haven't changed. Nothing's new other than Iran is ready to sit at the negotiating table because Trump caved-in enough.
- df2df 7mo agoNot really. The fact we have a cease-fire signals the U.S. does not want to continue further with the war. The reality is making statements re. actions associated with committing war-crimes has left the US with no friends... except Israel.
- raziel2701 7mo agoOh brother, gas goes up in a hurry, it takes its sweet time to come down.
- zahlman 7mo agoThe way I recall things, in 2022 they took half the year to go up and were back to normal by the end. The statistics I can easily find corroborate this.
- hypeatei 7mo agoDidn't the US and Israel gather intelligence during previous "talks" which ended up with senior Iranian leadership dead? It seems unlikely that this relationship would be fixed by now, and a deal would require big concessions from one side... of which one is polling real badly at home currently. Between the threats to NATO allies, high oil prices, lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, US personnel losing their lives, military equipment losses, and broken campaign promises... I don't think this is something you just walk away from. It's still not clear why we're there in the first place; one could speculate that Trump was convinced by Israel that this operation would be like Venezuela which seems plausible because no US intelligence agencies backup the notion that Iran was developing or trying to develop nuclear weapons.
- dboreham 7mo agoHe was convinced for other reasons to proceed with the operation. Reasons to do with what might happen to him personally if not.
- hypeatei 7mo agoI don't know if you're implying kompromat or assassination but I think the explanation that they played into his ego and got him to do their dirty work in Iran is much simpler and makes more sense. Every President before Trump has told Israel no when they asked for "assistance" with Iran.
- storus 7mo agoDoes this mean that Iran will have functional nukes in two weeks? Given how previous "ceasefires" turned out (blowing up their leadership), I don't think they are naive again and don't seem desperate to end it.
- giantg2 7mo agoGiven how the past nuclear deals went over decades, there's little hope of follow through now.
- scythe 7mo agoJCPoA compliance was verified by the US and the IAEA regularly until the agreement was suspended by Donald Trump in 2018.
- giantg2 7mo agoAnd the agreement continued with other nations, but IAEA started raising concerns in 2019 and Iran started breaking conditions. A bunch of countries tried to reinstate it under Biden but the Iranians wouldn't do it. Maybe they would have stayed compliant, maybe not. We'll never know. What we do know is that they wouldn't continue the agreement with other parties nor recommit to it later.
- tristanj 7mo agoNo, there is more to building a functioning nuke than just fuel enrichment.
- leonidasrup 7mo agoThe access to highly enriched uranium or separated plutonium is the limiting factor for construction of nuclear weapons. It really depends on how small and how efficient you need to make weapon, a nuclear weapon fitting inside a rocket nose cone is much more sophisticated than nuclear weapon that has to be only transportable by truck, ship or airplane. For example, the simple design of Little Boy used on Hiroshima contained 64 kilograms of uranium, but less than a kilogram underwent nuclear fission. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_boy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_boy "Unlike the implosion design developed for the Trinity test and the Fat Man bomb design that was used against Nagasaki, which required sophisticated coordination of shaped explosive charges, the simpler but inefficient gun-type design was considered almost certain to work, and was never tested prior to its use at Hiroshima." So with access to highly enriched uranium (enrichment greater than 90%), a large and crude bomb could be produced in few weeks. How could they deliver it anywhere? They don't have airplanes. Truck? Speedboat?
- dataflow 7mo agoHow does anyone just open a strait that has mines in it in 2 weeks?
- danans 7mo ago> How does anyone just open a strait that has mines in it in 2 weeks? The strait has been open for weeks for friendly countries' ships that pay Iran $2M per passage through their "toll booth", an unmined route through Iranian territorial waters. This ceasefire appears legitimize that situation. If it holds, Iran is about to make huge amounts of money on top of sanctions relief.
- tristanj 7mo agoThe strait is barely mined, at most a few dozen mines were placed. Multiple ships have transited through in Omani waters since the start of the conflict. So far none have been struck by mines. The threat why boats do not cross are Iranian missiles / drones striking ships attempting to pass thru, without paying a protection fee. It's basically a terrorism protection fee.
- vincnetas 7mo agodoes policemen shooting at you when you don't listen to his orders is considered terorism? i would say its just enforcing tax collection.
- tristanj 7mo agoIran doesn't have legal control over the entire strait; approx half of the strait is Iranian territorial waters and the other half is Omani territorial waters. For Iran's toll system to work, they would need to strike at ships sailing in Omani territorial waters, which is an act of war.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
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- KnuthIsGod 7mo ago[flagged]
- dinkumthinkum 7mo agoI don't know. The Kuwaitis might feel differently about your brilliant assessment.
- smcnc 7mo agoI don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the threat it was a month ago.
- straydusk 7mo agoHave you missed the lessons of the last 25 years of US involvement in the middle east I guess?
- Avicebron 7mo agoWe'll see if gas prices go down I suppose?
- actionfromafar 7mo agoWell it's all settled then! Guess the show's over. Everything will be fine from now on. What else can be done to avoid the Epstein files?
- ourmandave 7mo agoWe threatened to invade Cuba unless they "make a deal", whatever that means. Probably be the next Venezuela, except they help us against drug dealers, so I'm not sure what lies will be told to justify this one.
- oa335 7mo ago> Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed How are they still firing missiles and downing aircraft?
- smcnc 7mo ago[flagged]
- sleepyguy 7mo agoAmerica surrenders...hehehe.....Looks like Trump basically agreed to all 10 points (Truth and Social post).
- tristanj 7mo agoI disagree. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. China and Pakistan told Iran to come to the table, and negotiate, because they do not want a collapsed Iran. Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, run a financial economy, pay salaries, etc. Without fuel, there are no logistics; there is no capability to transport an army. Nor is there an ability to transport food; it would cause an enormous civilian crisis, and this would cause massive riots. Iran would collapse, within a week. It would devolve into factions, and a civil war would start, similar to in Syria. The US and Israel have been sitting on this card the entire time. They don't want to do it, because it would cause near permanent economic damage to Iran.
- 8note 7mo agoIts not yet clear who blinked, really. they dont want to do that attack, because Iran can still respond in kind, and both Israel and the US have some value in electricity, oil, and water existing around the gulf and in Israel. if you make Iran pay that war cost ahead of time, what are you gonna negotiate for after?
- maxglute 7mo agoNow reason without water, aka Israeli + GCC desalination. Iran with shit water situation is still less existentially water stressed. Iran 5% vs others 80/90%+ dependency on desalination = once Iran demonstrated survivable regional strike complex, they own the top end of escalation ladder that can take out everyone with them while coming out least harmed. This not to mention, relative to US performance / conemps, i.e. going back to standoff munitions, there's not really enough discretionary high end munitions to take degrade all Iranian infra vs Iran has enough in reserve to take out all regional desalination. Nevermind US expending 1000s more TLAMs / JASSM(ER)s leaving it unprepared for any other near peer conflict. Reminder Iraq was 20% size of Iran, and so far US+Israel only flew ~20% of sorties via Iran than it has Iraq. Even factoring in precision munitions, US would have to expend more munitions than it has to actually cripple Iran on par with Iraq.
- drivebyhooting 7mo ago[flagged]
- cumshitpiss 7mo ago[dead]
- alfiedotwtf 7mo agoWeird how Iran is able to come to a ceasefire when their whole leadership has been killed times over. Who exactly does Trump think he’s negotiating with?!
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- Unicironic 7mo agoIt's disheartening to hear people talk about this in terms of won and lost. Is that how you think of these events? I think of them in terms of sadness and horror. The US threatened to obliterate a country and people, because gas was getting a little expensive. If winning and losing is the way you are framing this, instead of thinking about the humans that these actions affect, then we all have lost.
- aaron695 7mo ago[dead]
- RiverStone 7mo agoThat doesn’t align with the perspective of actual Iranians I know. There are news reports of Iranian expats and opponents within Iranian who are disappointed with the ceasefire. They wanted trump to go further and destroy the regime. That aligns with conversations I’ve had with Iranians friends in the US and family members within Iran who want the regime destroyed so there is a chance of removing the Islamic theocracy that governs the country currently.
- scythe 7mo ago> There are news reports of Iranian expats and opponents within Iranian who are disappointed with the ceasefire. They wanted trump to go further and destroy the regime. Most of them realized their mistake: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/01/irans-opposition-in-exile-is-rethinking-its-support-for-the-war https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/01/... Iranians hoping that war and death will save them are chasing a gruesome mirage. The US has successfully liberated exactly one country by regime change since 1945: Panama in 1989. Every other intervention has either supported a rebellion (secession) instead of a revolution, or it has ended in failure (Afghanistan, Vietnam, Somalia) or a prolonged civil war (Iraq, Libya, Yemen). Anyone hoping for such a fate to befall their own country is morally compromised.
- RiverStone 7mo ago
- jacknews 7mo agoWhat a clown show. I'm very sure that Trump just announced the ceasefire to save face and brag that his threats worked to get the strait reopened, and the whole thing will be just a ruse to regroup for further attacks. I can't see cooler heads in Washington agreeing to these 10 points, and Israel will certainly have something to say. If these points are agreed, it's a catastrophic strategic defeat for the US. They already lost most of their bases in the region (13/18 I believe), and would now have to evacuate the rest. We've learned that American military is not so mighty after all. America's reputation as upholding a rules-based world order is in the toilet. Iran will emerge as the dominant regional power, with global leverage and a steady extra income due to their complete and accepted control of Hormuz. The smaller states will be scrambling to find a new international security partner, and China seems like a likely candidate. The Petro-dollar is likely toast. I mean if Vlad Putin himself were to direct every decision Trump has made, he could scarcely have done a better job of damaging America and disrupting the world order. Making America Grotesque Again.
- helo4362 7mo agoWhy does india support iran while enemies to Palestine. Is it because of shia vs sunni sects
- intensifier 7mo agoIndia supported Israel until Iran started to look like winning. Modi visited Israel right the day before Israel strike on Iran leading to this war. They never thought Iran could fight USA.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- ted_bunny 7mo ago[flagged]
- yongjik 7mo agoThe number of comments here trying to argue that this is anything other than utter humiliation for Trump and America ... I guess I should get used to it now. At least 1/3 of Americans will be swayed at nothing and will stand behind their beloved leader, whatever happens. I wonder what will happen to the price of oil in the coming months and whether that will cause some people to change their minds.
- lolcopedope 7mo ago[dead]
- ahf8Aithaex7Nai 7mo agoI had a teacher in school who would sometimes stand at the front of the class with her hand raised and three fingers extended, announcing, “I'm going to count to three, and then you'll all be quiet!” Of course, that never worked. I never understood why she kept putting herself through that farce over and over again. Every deadline that passes without consequence is a loss of face. The same goes for Trump. He can sugarcoat it all he wants: the world sees it as a defeat. The only thing missing is him collecting shells on the beach and ordering the construction of a lighthouse.
- raspasov 7mo agoA reminder that both things can be true at the same time: 1. Trump is a bad president 2. The Islamic Republic of Iran should not be allowed to have nuclear weapons
- chimpanzee2 7mo ago> The Islamic Republic of Iran should not be allowed to have nuclear weapons Neither should Israel, right ... right?
- zoklet-enjoyer 7mo agoI've been calling my reps and demanding they impeach Trump and Hegseth and get in contact with Doug Burgum and get going on the 25th amendment.
- tristanj 7mo agoKamala Harris would have started this exact same war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48DxQTPOouU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48DxQTPOouU Sometimes, it doesn't matter who you vote for.
- zoklet-enjoyer 7mo agoAnd she'd be in the wrong too. Our country is run by psychopaths.
- 8note 7mo agowould she though? president after president has had the choice but haven't. the best you get from that interview is that she was unwilling to say a yes or a no. probably a no, and she's not one to make decisions on a whim based on people stroking her ego
- deathanatos 7mo agoThere is exactly a 0% chance of the 25A happening. It will be a cold day in hell — these people worship Trump. They're not ousting him. Impeachment would be more likely, but an impeachment conviction still seems utterly improbable. You'd need to flip a lot of seats in November, and this country is going to have forgotten all about this set of genocidal threats well before then. There's no way the current House/Senate GOP impeach, let alone convict. > get in contact with Doug Burgum I have absolutely no idea why you think Burgum would ever support a 25A invocation against Trump.
- zoklet-enjoyer 7mo agoI'm from North Dakota. My reps know him. I know they're all cowards and cucked by Trump, but I'm going to keep calling them, demanding they do this, and reading insane Truth Social posts to them because I don't know what else I can do. Burgum is a fucking disgrace to this state. I wish he'd grow some balls like the cowboy character he sometimes cosplays as and stand up to Trump. I wish my cucked reps would do the same.
- karim79 7mo agoI'm putting this[0] here just as a reminder of how horrible things can be and for basically nothing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack
- acyou 7mo agoI used to attend elementary school on a military base. I didn't feel like a human shield at the time, then again I was more naive and had less life experience than I do now.
- karim79 7mo ago[flagged]
- JumpCrisscross 7mo agoI'm...not seeing how the comment you're responding to "blames the victims."
- InexSquirrel 7mo agoYeah I'm not following what they mean there.
- karim79 7mo ago"The Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' elementary school in southern Minab was attended by both boys and girls, taught on separate floors.[9] According to locals, the school was previously a military facility.[10] Its location was near[c] the Sayyid al-Shuhada military complex which included the headquarters of the Asif Brigade of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN).[13] As of early 2026, the school had existed as a civilian institution more than 10 years, close to but separate from the IRGCN compound."The Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' elementary school in southern Minab was attended by both boys and girls, taught on separate floors.[9] According to locals, the school was previously a military facility.[10] Its location was near[c] the Sayyid al-Shuhada military complex which included the headquarters of the Asif Brigade of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN).[13] As of early 2026, the school had existed as a civilian institution more than 10 years, close to but separate from the IRGCN compound. For more than ten years. That's Palantir caching for you.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- axus 7mo agoPeace in our time!
- rofljewfail 7mo ago[flagged]
- tristanj 7mo agoThe USA and Israel could always win the war, at any time, by playing the "destroy all your power plants and fuel facilities" card. They've been sitting on this card the entire time. They don't want to play it, because it would cause near permanent economic damage to Iran. It is not possible to run a modern economy without fuel or electricity. Without fuel, there are no logistics; there is no capability to transport an army. Nor is there an ability to transport food; it would cause an enormous civilian crisis, and this would cause massive riots. Iran (and most of this thread) does not understand this, and that's why there were kindly encouraged by Pakistan and China to go to the negotiating table, before this conflict gets worse.
- bigyabai 7mo agoIran can still escalate too. Past a certain point we really have to examine what "winning" means if regime change is only feasible via mass starvation.
- tristanj 7mo agoEscalate, how? By bombing gulf countries infrastructure? So they cannot produce oil, gas, and water; extending the humanitarian crisis to the rest of the Gulf countries? Doing so does nothing to prevent Iran from being bombed itself. Iran (so far) has shown no ability to prevent the USA and Israel from dropping thousands of bombs on Iranian daily.
- rofljewfail 7mo ago[dead]
- hdivider 7mo agoLet me articulate the thing which I believe is on many people's minds: What is the chance the president will order a nuclear strike on Iran as this war proceeds? We would hope the odds are vanishingly small, because doing so would be profoundly disadvantageous. But the same was true for initiating this war in the first place. The logic -- such as it is -- of some people in power may lead them to conclude once more that shock and awe can succeed. We've already struck the country with powerful conventional weapons at scale and it has not led to a weakening of Iranian resolve. All the above said, my personal hope of course is this will never happen. I'm curious what other folks think however.
- tristanj 7mo agoNo chance. A nuclear strike on Iran won't achieve anything that a large number of conventional strikes would.
- bkishan 7mo agoWouldn't*
- aschla 7mo agoYou're assuming the current president operates on rationale. He simply would love to be the guy who uses a tactical nuke.
- mlrtime 7mo agoHow much would you wager? It's easy to to say what you're saying because it's popular. If you watch action and not social media bs, the probability is close to 0%.
- Ntrails 7mo agoMy real question is not whether it would achieve anything meaningful, but what would be the side effects of such a strike on allies in the region. I don't have a remotely decent mental model of fallout etc from modern nuclear weapons - my assumptions are they're still toxic enough to be a bloody terrible idea anywhere near someone you like.
- pkilgore 7mo agoDid the USA just lose a war to fucking Iran?
- wnevets 7mo agoSo before this war the strait was open and now it's gonna reopen? So much progress!
- mandeepj 7mo agoI call the orange guy many things! I believe he's an accidental president. DNC screwed up big time both times. The stakes were higher than ever, so they could have played it safe by looking at past elections, but nope. They wanted to write history, but got the other guy to do it. Bush (reminder: a republican) screwed things so bad that the country opened to something that had never happened before - A black President. Now, orange guy (again, a republican, see the pattern) has screwed, and I'm not sure where his bottom is, will set the country to accept again something that hasn't happened before - A Woman President; maybe a black one. There's still time until the 2028 general election. Also, what do conservatives conserve? They conserve their brains by not using them. Don't take my word; just look at the history, what they have done so far! They are the same everywhere - be it the US or India - same hate mongering lunatics!
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- worthless-trash 7mo agoForgive my ignorance, but doesn't allowing them to collect a tax on transit pretty much continue to fund themselves to continue this bullshittery forever. Bad behavior can't be encouraged.
- karim79 7mo agoIf Israel actually stops attacking Iran, that will be a win for the world. Will it happen? I doubt it. The last thing Netanyahu wants is a ceasefire or diplomacy. I think even if Trump tells him to stop he'll keep going. The furniture salesman knows he's in trouble for the all the illegal gifts he has received and all the other horrific crimes he has committed. He'll hold on for as long as he can. The world be damned.
- holografix 7mo agoThis is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if anyone messes with them they’ll close the straight. Then gas prices go up. Then your own domestic pop gets pissed. Then your chances of re-election drop. 5. Destabilised the whole region costing the ME lots and lots of money.
- Nursie 7mo agoYup, and it's a demonstration that the US is unable to just impose its will wherever it wants, making the US look weaker. Failure all around. But no doubt Trump and his people will tell the world what an amazing success the whole thing was, and how they exceeded all their goals, whatever those goals might have been.
- ekr 7mo agoI think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. So I think there will be another leader elected soon.
- alsetmusic 7mo ago> I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. > So I think there will be another leader elected soon. What does that have to do with anything? The USA (my country, sadly) provoked a far smaller nation and was proved incapable of dominance. Trump will claim victory, but it's not what they thought they'd get.
- 7mo ago
- Balgair 7mo agoAside: We should not make fun of both of these lying cheating idiots in charge of either faction. Look, it's really easy to dunk on them, like super easy. This is a very dumb war and will continue to be so, we all can see that. But both sides are in a escalate-to-deescalate trap. Neither wants to back down in order to save face. So they can only make things worse. And things can get a lot worse. Lots of people legitimately thought that Tehran was going to be a glowing hole by the time you are reading this. That would have been ~17 million lives wiped out. A ground war is a generation in each country that is just decimated like Ukraine is seeing. Already there has been far too much death and destruction, too many children that are now without parents, too many parents now without children. If avoiding that means not dunking on these barbarous morons for a little while, so be it, a small price. I know that some random internet comments are about as important as the fly on a horse's ass is to a hurricane, but it has to start somewhere. I'm not saying we should not hold them to account. No, this mess is maybe something that will snap everyone out of it, it's already so dumb and bad. They deserve, like we all do, the best justice we can give them. And it will not be kind to either side, we all know that. But, let them have this win. Do the best we can to encourage others to let both sides walk away from this horrible trap. If the do so scot free, hey, that's a win in all of our books. Let Donny strut about, walk away. Stop it with the TACO nonsense. Let him feel like a big man, a winner, whatever his little pudding brain needs. Just let the war end before it gets even more out of hand. Before even more babies have only pictures and stories to know their father by.
- goranmoomin 7mo agoTBH as an outsider, I am just so frustrated on Trump deciding that US invading Iran large scale is a great idea. (And why even is it involving Israel for gods sake?!) If you guys wanted to be supportive to the Iranian protests, US could instead just selectively target some of the leadership and give the protests a push (and give the whole world a hint that US is supportive of them). After 40 years of Iran constructing a thearchy government, the Iranians finally started having a huge protest on throwing up the thearchy government and possibly talking about a new west-friendly government. And then Trump just decides to wholesale invade Iran with Israel? That's just giving so much more reasons for the current government to be in power and the Iranians to hate the US and more generally the western world. It took 40 years for the Iranians to realize that there's enough problems in the thearchy system and want their more secularized country back; and then Trump just destroyed the whole premise! Does the US just really think that they will be loved by everyone when they rage in and invade any random country? Do they really think like that? I'm just frustrated so much. How can the US be so egocentric?
- 8note 7mo agoif you look at the iranian response over the past month, the theocracy really hasn't played into it. no calls to jihad, no ayatollah dorecting anything, no nothing. as far as i can tell, the revolution is already dead. if the US had just sat around, chances are that iran would have moved towards something more like a constitutional monarchy. still the ayatollah as a figure head and religious leader, but with the rest of the power in the democratic institutions' hands
- throwawayheui57 7mo agoCan you point out some signs of concession from islamic regime? I think they wouldn’t concede, with or without war. That’s not in their DNA. They are religious extremists.
- 1234letshaveatw 7mo agoInvasion lol.
- yalogin 7mo agoThis is not over yet and it may just result in an established fee for each shipment through the strait to Iran. We won’t/havent hear from Israel which is the key player here. They just do what they want to do because they know the whole world will look the other way.
- karim79 7mo agoThis is Israel's "business as usual" stuff. Mowing the lawn, fake ceasefire, distraction, expansion and greater Israel project let's go! stuff. Stretch goal is to make Iran a failed state. Primary goal is distraction from the very real annexation of Palestinian and Lebanese territories, one war crime at a time.
- jojocool0501 7mo ago[dead]
- tristanj 7mo ago[flagged]
- karim79 7mo agoIsrael hates negotiations. Netanyahu funded Hamas. And you're writing comedy and I just can't be bothered. You got me. No you didn't. Only a Zionist would call equal rights and the right to self-determination a "maximalist" position. Answer me one thing. Who will be the people who flow into Israel while the whole world sees the ugly state it has become? A weirdly supremacist ethno-state is not a solution. It might seem like a good idea but I don't think it has legs to be honest.
- cm2187 7mo ago> "Netanyahu funded Hamas" I see this claim repeated over and over. You should be aware that it is false. As far as I am aware, Israel never funded Hamas. Israel allowed Qatari money to the Gaza authority to pay for civil servants, humanitarian aid and basic services, while it was run by Hamas.
- iamacyborg 7mo ago> Only a Zionist would call equal rights and the right to self-determination a "maximalist" position. To be clear, this was not Hamas’ position during negotiations.
- boxed 7mo ago
- b345 7mo ago[flagged]
- Ms-J 7mo agoAny American's I've spoke to either are so sick of wars and of course don't want this or they actively oppose it. The only people you find wanting this war is israelis and their kind. They sit back and relax while having their blackmail controlled, ancient, American politicians do all of the dirty work while sending their sons and daughters to die for isreal.
- Galanwe 7mo agoSorry but I just dont buy this argument. All Americans I have met had the same discourse: "I am ashamed, it's a pity Trump is in power, it's hard for us too, we don't support him", etc. I am rather sick of it. A democracy is not an "us versus them" system, it's a closed loop. One cannot hide behind "these imbeciles votted for him and I am held hostage by their ignorance". Pros and antis Trump are equally responsible for his election. Maybe if the US was not such an individualistic country, with growing educational and wealth inequality, half the population wouldn't have voted for exploding the status quo. Politicians are no more corrupt than the population not impeaching them. The US is basically in a streak of blatantly stealing resources of other countries, mafia style, and we are long past the point where the population can argue "we didnt know, we thought they had weapons of mass destruction, I am so against it".
- zahlman 7mo ago> A lot of American and Israeli degenerates here egging on the military to continue their war crimes (bombing of civilian infrastructure and civilians) in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon while simultaneously calling the Iranians evil. Anyone who points that out is downvoted to oblivion. I see nothing whatsoever resembling that ITT.
- andsoitis 7mo agoHow much money did we spend on this nothingburger?
- helo4362 7mo agoWhats the irans citizens feel about this while thing. As an outsider I see there was lot of protest against islamic regime with the killing of young girl for not covering the head or something like such. But after trump killed the leader it seemed people rooting for islamic regime. Whats the state of people. Is there a way to know
- bigyabai 7mo agoIran's citizens probably gave up hope when their civilian infrastructure was attacked by the United States. I doubt any of them actually were foolish enough to think the Kurds, Mossad or US Army would march in to help them to begin with. Both the US and Israel would much prefer the mass-punishment of Iranian citizens than a humanitarian ground operation, that was obvious even before the bombs started dropping. If I was an Iranian citizen, I'd be seeing America as a nation of racist sociopaths. This conflict entrenches the current Iranian regime and manufactures consent for Israel and the United States to violate even more conventions of warfare to avoid a ground deployment. The intended result is obviously the balkanization of Iran.
- Jean-Papoulos 7mo agoThe terrorism recruitement numbers are gonna go through the roof in the next few years based on this alone.
- o10449366 7mo agoIs it terrorism? radicalization seems like a pretty natural human response when your family/home/community gets indiscriminately obliterated by missiles from the sky.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- Fricken 7mo agoI told ya the Ayatollah would end up keeping the gate. Tolling all the tankers that want to pass through the straight. The US cannot game this cockamamie new Khameini. So unless you're a tankie you won't be thanking him later. The Hegemon can make demands but can't avoid demand destruction. Steal the oil from Iran, was that the plan? Just like a child abduction? Trump doesn't have the gumption to snatch enriched uranium nor does he have the cranium to manage prices at the pump. Never lower, always higher. Where he sees smoke, I Cease fire. For Nukes and Nikes Nixon hollered "Abandon gold for Petrodollars!" The Ayatollah is now doling Trump a lashing for his trolling. Heed Shaheeds and bleed? No need! Say "Fuck it dude" and just go bowling.
- chimpanzee2 7mo agowow you're like m&m or summin
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- entropyneur 7mo agoThe real winner in this war is Israel. Iran's military might is now a shadow of its former self while all the costs have been paid by someone else: American taxpayers, gas consumers around the world, Arab states. Even the political costs are on Trump.
- solatic 7mo agoCertainly economically. NIS-USD exchange is now 3.09 and continuing to drop, reflecting optimism. Strategically, it remains to be seen what will happen to the nuclear material in the peace talks. If Iran emerges from the war with an intact nuclear program due to a lack of American stamina to carry through and achieve its war goals, that would be an enormous strategic defeat for Israel.
- iamankur 7mo agoFull disclosure: Iran VS USA is just an excuse to dismantle feudalism. That is the real war. The rest are just logistics exercises. If feudalism ends all wars end. At ease everyone.
- dogemaster2026 7mo ago[flagged]
- o10449366 7mo agogee, i wonder who helped put those religious fanatics in power and have helped them retain power by raining down death from the sky
- tfrrggh 7mo agoFanatics exists in every religion given enough population. How do they attain power consistently in islamic countries. I think thats because it's easy to convert even educated open minded people to side with religion because of the incentive structure in islam.
- notTooFarGone 7mo agoThank you dogemaster2026 for the insightful comment.
- 5asH12h 7mo agoThe NYT is throwing Trump under the bus and protects Vance as the next candidate: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-wa... The timing is really suspicious. The fact that all this opposition in internal meetings is leaked could mean two things: 1) The establishment is genuinely upset with Trump. 2) The ceasefire is a ruse and all this purported opposition is deliberately leaked to pretend that the US now really wants peace but is actually shipping ground troops to the region (at best) or manufacturing internal consent for nuclear bunker busters (at worst). The fact that Trump posted that he considers the maximalist Iranian 10 point plan as a basis for negotiations points to 2). He has always attacked Iran during "negotiations".
- zacksiri 7mo agoI hope that one day humanity learns that in war there are no winners. We're all just brothers and sisters born on different corners of the planet. We share the same home. I hope that we stop attacking one another and find peace and work together as a race to overcome our challenges.
- ra 7mo agoIt's times like these when most people recognise that parents in all corners of the world worry about their kids just the same. War should never break out. But it does. We had international rules to prevent war, but they're gone. We had international rules to prevent governments deliberately killing innocent people under the guise of war, but they're gone too. It took two world wars and roughly 80 million killed to create those rules. You could argue about when they got destroyed. In Ukraine, in Gaza, Iran - but it's clear now that they don't exist any more.
- squishington 7mo agoThis is a lovely notion that most well adjusted people can get behind, but if you've ever had a person with narcissistic personality disorder in your life, you'll understand that they need to create conflict to emotionally regulate themselves. Unfortunately these people tend to acquire wealth and power, and are never satisfied. Then the rest of us have to deal with it.
- krembo 7mo agorainbows and unicorns are cool while you're under 9
- contingencies 7mo agoAmen. Also, nature is awesome and we live in a period of technological plenty and instant global communication with arbitrary knowledge and decent translation available in seconds, so why are we still acting like lunatics and hating on groups? Parents: stop teaching your children to identify with irrelevant concepts of ethno-nationalism, and instead teach them to be globalist scientists with empathy. Nationalismus ist eine Kinderkrankheit. Die Masern der Menschheit. ("Nationalism is an infantile disease: the measles of mankind") - Albert Einstein, 1929. Who, incidentally, turned down the presidency of Israel. "Should we be unable to find a way to honest cooperation and honest pacts with the Arabs, then we have learned absolutely nothing during our two thousand years of suffering and deserve all that will come to us." - Einstein on Israel, late 1920s. PLUR
- krembo 7mo agoIt's interesting how the hackernews-biased views of the war outcomes don't align with how Iranians themselves see that. For instance you can translate from persian the following geopolitical view which will shed a totally different light on the situation to whoever depends solely on hn comments https://x.com/i/status/2041693098833518976 https://x.com/i/status/2041693098833518976
- Den_VR 7mo agoPosted from Maryland?
- krembo 7mo agoToo bad the internet inside Iran was shut down by the IRGC terrorists regime
- RiverStone 7mo agoThanks for sharing perspectives from actual Iranians.
- nxor0 7mo agoHey there, semi related to your comment above, I read your point that "Sad that my comment got flagged, this is a major problem with hacker news - censorship of comments that prevent people from hearing all perspectives" and agree completely. I've been flagged and shadowbanned for mentioning Iryna Zarutska and in general, anything that people would rather silence than address with words and reason. I'd love to talk more about this. It's sad because most of the people here regard themselves highly but this doesn't match the experience of "this opinion is counter mine therefore it must vanish and I can go on believing no one disagrees with me"
- noah_buddy 7mo agoUp until a couple months ago, none of these people would even describe themselves as “Iranian.” They would all use another term to distinguish between themselves and those living in Iran.
- aucisson_masque 7mo agoI can't figure out what was even USA goal in this war ? they have said everything and it's contrary, so there is no way to know if they won or if they lost. I guess it's a smart move. But on the other hand, Iran still has enriched uranium, nuclear facilities and now they even have put in the agreement a recognition of Iran's right to seek nuclear technology. Iran missiles.. they still shoot them and there is nothing to prevent them to build more. They are going to get a big cash-flow with that control of the Detroit, recognized in the 10 point agreement. Iran government has not been replaced. I'd say it's even stronger now that it 'won' the war (that's the way they're going to show it on national television) and they even asked to get UN sanctions lifted. That will bring them some legitimacy back. What other usa war goal were proclaimed ? I vaguely remember a national security thing where Iran was going to bomb America. I guess the war didn't prevent that because Iran did kill American soldiers and caused billions of $ in loss. Iran goal on the other hand ? Destroy the evil American ? They weren't going to anyway. Survive ? I guess they did. And now the population that was supporting their government is even more radicalized.
- surgical_fire 7mo ago> Iran government has not been replaced. I'd say it's even stronger now that it 'won' the war (that's the way they're going to show it on national television) and they even asked to get UN sanctions lifted. That will bring them some legitimacy back. That's the thing, winning depends on your goals. Iran's goal was to survive as a country, and the autocratic theocracy that rules it to stay in charge. Not only it managed that so far, but it now effectively controls the flow of all exports going through the gulf. It is an actual victory. US' goals were unclear. A lot was said. Regime change? Stop Iran's nuclear program? Stop its support to proxies in the region? Take Kharg Island? None of that was done. It was a deafeat. Israel's goal is murder. It murdered a lot of people during this war. Double points for murdering children. I think Israel can also claim victory here.
- aucisson_masque 7mo agoYeah, on second thought I think that the real winner is Israel. After all, it's their war. American shouldn't even care and yet they got convinced to spend billions and billions on this war that will benefit mostly Israel. And the greatest achievement ? Before you mention it in the comment, I even had forgotten that Israel was cobeligirent in that war. They go under the radar when they are those who actually reached their goal: kill, murder Iran official, destroy their infrastructures, 'lay down the grass' as they say. And now they even invaded Lebanon while the world is happy because the Detroit is open again. Truly a masterclass.
- XorNot 7mo agoLooks like I'm buying the oil futures dip this week!
- moezd 7mo agoTrump wanted tariffs on everyone to increase everyone's operations expenses so that he can somehow enact a protectionist policy. It was repeatedly shut down by the Supreme Court. Now, even with this ceasefire you will have the new Hurmuz tax long after the insurance premiums wind down, and everyone who's heavily dependent on ME oil have increased expenses. Mission accomplished, I guess? At what cost, though.
- ArchieScrivener 7mo ago[dead]
- yalogin 7mo agoSo with all the bluster we are able to roll the clock back successfully to pre Obama stage of negotiations? Essentially starting from discussing if Iran should have nuclear capability or not and then adding new stuff like Iran controlling the strait and collecting toll on it. Awesome, so much winning!
- Havoc 7mo agoWild that the US accepted Iran's maximalist demands as starting point for negotiations. There seem to be some uncertainty around what those 10 points are - multiple versions floating around, but they all read very much like a US strategic defeat. Full retreat from region, reparations to be paid etc.
- yodsanklai 7mo agoTACO fortunately. Let's hope this is resolved. Question: what are Trump next plans, who is he going to harass now? he seems to go crescendo in the craziness. Maybe he'll calm down a bit before the mid-terms though.
- ablation 7mo agoIt would seem all arrows are pointing at Cuba, which I'm sure won't put up quite as much of a fight.
- junglistguy 7mo ago[dead]
- exabrial 7mo agoI pray for peace in the world. While the past has shown these things to be complicated and sometimes temporary, I accept progress over perfection.
- ZeroGravitas 7mo agoTrump is now threatening CNN with legal repercussions for publishing the Iraninian government's take on this, so I think it safe to say we all lost this war.
- scorpionfeet 7mo agoSo: worse than the Obama treaty. Got it.
- karim79 7mo agoPinning this right here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack
- erfgh 7mo agoI hate bombing as much as the next guy but areas close to military structures, especially to ones that have already been bombed during the last 24 hours, should have been evacuated.
- culi 7mo ago> On 28 February 2026, between 10:23 and 10:45 a.m That's the exact same time the other buildings were hit. It was all part of the same strike package. The school was hit directly, not accidentally, and The Guardian has previously reported on evidence that these targets were selected with AI assistance
- RiverStone 7mo agoResponding with this: https://youtu.be/8_AiSeYsDeA?si=xsZTGWxcVaVRbXCi https://youtu.be/8_AiSeYsDeA?si=xsZTGWxcVaVRbXCi Iranians responding with excitement and hope as we bomb the regime.
- KellyCriterion 7mo agoSo, to summarize: - Trump spent a lot of money - a lot of people were killed - basicly, he gained nothing? - in the future, street of hormuz will be an ongoing conflict thats the result?
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- karim79 7mo agoIsrael's agreement with the GCC countries: 1. Guarantee that Israel won't attack a neighbouring state again. 2. Respect borders and refrain from engaging in expansionist activities. 3. Declare their nuclear weapons and respect the rights of neighbours to possess such weapons. 4. Desist in all genocidal activities for a period of forever. 5. Submit any and all Israeli leaders for whom international arrest warrants have been issued to the appropriate authorities. 6. Be responsible for those occupied by the state of Israel, in accordance with international law. 7. All second hand furniture should be registered with Bibi Netanyahu's office for evaluation. 8. Bibi Netanyahu should not use his thumb on the map in his office while describing the Greater Israel Vision because it's annoying and illegal. 9. Bibi Netanyahu must declare all gifts of second-hand furniture to the state of Israel to avoid further corruption charges. 10. Bibi Netanyahu must submit himself to a psychiatrist with utmost immediacy.
- whatever1 7mo agoPeople died for this shit. And congress did nothing to stop this insanity. Don’t blame Trump. Blame the elected officials.
- erfgh 7mo agoCountries that send their oil through the strait of Hormuz will build alternative routes. But for such routes to be ready a few years will be needed. Once alternative routes are in place, and since Iran will likely not have a nuclear weapon by then, full obliteration of Iran will ensue.
- phtrivier 7mo agoWill people buy more American / Venezuelian / Russian oil now that the ME is going to be perpetually under the threat of another Iranian squeeze ? Will pipelines with creative routing make a comeback ? Or will people, you know, try to reduce their dependency on oil and gas by using less prehistoric technology ? Naaaah that would require R&D. Leave that to the Chinese. We have pensioners to support.
- lolcopedope 7mo ago[dead]
- tristanj 7mo agoThe ceasefire is over. Iran launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Israel after the ceasefire was announced; the first wave happened about an hour after the ceasefire announcement, then another 5 hours after, then another 8 hours after. Iran also launched waves of drones at UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia within the first few hours of the ceasefire, and they've continued more over the next 12 hours. Multiple major energy facilities were struck, including desalination plants and oil facilities. Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline was hit. In Kuwait, three power stations a water desalination plants were severely damaged following drone attacks. Israel announced the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon, and launched a massive wave of airstrikes on Lebanon about an hour ago. Iran said this is a ceasefire violation, and resumed launching drones and missiles. This ceasefire is done, nobody wants to stop fighting, the war will be back to usual in the next few days.
- watwut 7mo agoThe ceasefire was never between Israel and Iran, Israel did not stopped bombing even after first announcement.
- tristanj 7mo agoNope, Israel did stop its strikes on Iran. However, they did not stop bombing Lebanon. https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-backs-iran-truce-opposition-blames-him-for-diplomatic-disaster/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-backs-iran-truce-opp...
- MulliMulli 7mo agoThe poor people in Lebanon, seems Israel is targeting everything from funerals to medics.
- abustamam 7mo agoI wonder why this isn't being covered in western news outlets. Every politician who is in AIPAC's pocket needs to be shown these headlines and be held accountable.
- NickC25 7mo agoA good analogy to this situation is the analogy of playing chess with a pigeon, who knocks over the pieces, takes a shit on the board, struts around for a moment, and flies away. Except in this case, the pigeon has a ton of yes-men worshiping it, and praises each of its moves as genius. Except it hasn't made any chess moves, it's literally knocked over pieces and shit on the board, leaving the board and pieces in worse shape. Worse yet - there's a narrative being built by the pigeon's yes-men that the actions by the pigeon were indeed genius, and the situation is better....and people believe the yes-men.
- d3vguy 7mo ago[dead]
- andyjohnson0 7mo agoReport Card: USA, #1 world power, nukes etc, failed to win. Iranian regime wasn't destroyed, and the HE uranium is still there. Two carrier battle groups weren't enough to re-open the straits. Burned $45bn and achieved nothing much. Iran, fourth-rate regional power, failed to lose. Regime still in power, and still has its HE uranium. Oil infrastructure intact. Military knocked-about a bit, but still capable of controlling the straits and bringing in the $$$. They get to keep brutalising their frightened population. Israel, premium regional power, suddenly all on its own running a hot, two-front war with no easy exit, because Trump cut and ran. Netanyahu is probably toast in the upcoming elections, which means hes going to jail for all the corruption stuff. China, mega military power, picked the right side and comes out of it clean. Looks like a model, dependable global citizen. Access to the oil without paying the $2m/boat straits fee. Didn't blow $45bn on nothing. Russia, third-rate power on the way down, made some roubles on the oil price thing, but still has all the same problems as before. Meatgrinder war. Economic and demographic collapse still imminent. Global pariah, except for Orban and Erdoğan and the Belarus guy. Putin's getting pretty old. EU+UK basically sat it out. Sensible. Much economic damage though. Thousands of dead/wounded/traumatised adults and children -- a running sore that shames us all. Plus all the victims of the Gaza and Lebanon wars. Deep, deep anger for multiple generations. Revenge, etc. ---- Officially its a ceasefire, but everyone knows the US won't restart after this. Its six months to the mid-terms, and the genius orange guy in Washington has other things on his mind. And Epstein is still hanging around like a bad smell. What to try next?
- silexia 7mo agoThe US should seize total control of the Strait of Hormuz, including all land necessary to ensure safe passage of ships. The population should be evicted. The US should collect high fees for safe ship passage to pay for everything.