15 ms·

OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

531 points by surprisetalk 7mo ago

https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai

_diyar 7mo ago
Are there any Polymarket / Kalshi bets on the over-under for the price? I wonder when the music will stop.
- tfehring 7mo ago
  https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-above https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-a...
  - aurareturn 7mo ago
    I don't gamble but if I did, I'd bet a lot on $1.6t.
brcmthrowaway 7mo ago
Wow. I doubt Anthropic can raise that. Are they more efficient, can they do with less?
- strongpigeon 7mo ago
  Given how all of Big Tech (except Google obviously) is going all in on Claude Code, I wouldn't be surprised if Anthropic becomes profitable first.
- rvz 7mo ago
  Anthropic doesn't have anything else other than the Claude models. But notice that no-one, not a single mention of Deepseek tells me that they are preparing to scare everyone again. Which is why Dario continues to scare-monger on local models. Sometimes you do not need hundreds of billions of dollars for inference when it can be done locally with efficient software; and Google proved that. But where is the money in that? So continues the flawed belief in infinitely buying GPUs to scale which Nvidia needs you to do. Only a matter of time for local models to reach Opus level. We are 1 or at most 2 years behind that and Anthropic knows that.
  - randomNumber7 7mo ago
    Local models just make no economic sense since the GPU will idle 99% of the time.
    - twoodfin 7mo ago
      [dead]
    - zozbot234 7mo ago
      You have a GPU already (at least an iGPU and an NPU on most newer platforms) as part of your computer, might as well get some use out of it with local inference. And trying to do inference on a larger model with an undersized GPU will have you idling a lot less than 99% - but that still makes a lot of sense for most casual users who will only rarely need a genuine "Pro" class answer from AI. Doing that locally is way less hassle than paying for a subscription or messing with API spend.
    - amazingamazing 7mo ago
      False on a team that’s distributed
  - p12tic 7mo ago
    > Only a matter of time for local models to reach Opus level. We are 1 or at most 2 years behind that and Anthropic knows that. Can confirm. Kimi K2.5 is pretty intelligent and most of the time there's no difference between Opus and Kimi.
adinhitlore 7mo ago
[flagged]
- tencentshill 7mo ago
  You should consider taking a break from LLMs. They are misleading you.
  - adinhitlore 7mo ago
    personal estimation too, the motivation was to create somethin faster than a transformer since transformers were absurdly slow on my cpu - and it's very obviously faster. I get it llm hype you ad adfinitum regardless...
podgietaru 7mo ago
"This is not just product simplification. It is a distribution and deployment strategy." I am so sick of AI writing.
- alex_duf 7mo ago
  corporate speech existed long before AI
  - BitsAndObjects 7mo ago
    Mmm, it’s almost like OpenAI built statistical models using pre-existing corporate speech as the target data... ;)
- baal80spam 7mo ago
  Get used to it. All PR statements nowadays get AI treatment before going public.
- verbify 7mo ago
  The snowclone is annoying, but comparisons are sometimes necessary. The problem here is the actual content is sloppy.
rvz 7mo ago
No mention of "AGI" this time. Since we all knew it was a scam. But this is the most damning of them all: > The OpenAI flywheel is simple. More compute drives more intelligent models. More intelligent models drive better products. Better products drive faster adoption, more revenue and more cashflow. FTX had a "flywheel". It fell off. Being saddled with hundreds of billions of debt makes this situation ten times worse.
aanet 7mo ago
> The OpenAI flywheel is simple. More compute drives more intelligent models. More intelligent models drive better products. Better products drive faster adoption, more revenue and more cashflow. That gives us the ability to reinvest and deliver intelligence more efficiently to consumers, enterprises, and builders around the world. -x- In short, the musical chairs are still playing... Keep on walkin' round, y'all, till the music stops. /s
nemo1618 7mo ago
I'm old enough to remember when companies worth $1 billion were called "unicorns." Now we have a company raising 122 times that? Valued at nearly 1000 times that...? At least they're throwing consumers a bone via the ARK deal. It's crazy how little AI exposure is available to anyone who isn't already wealthy and/or connected.
- chilipepperhott 7mo ago
  I would not call an effective 2.9% expense ratio "throwing a bone".
  - munk-a 7mo ago
    Also, the valuation for such a debt laden company should be viewed with great skepticism. I'm afraid a lot of mutual funds will end up holding the bags.
  - mizzao 7mo ago
    It's not that far off from the standard 2% mgmt fee and 20% of excess performance?
- nine_k 7mo ago
  I think this is reality-distortion field rivaling that of Jobs', and a crisis of faith. Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI.
  - randomNumber7 7mo ago
    > Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI. This is the main reason we see this insane investment into AI imo. If you imagine having lots of money, where should you invest that currently? Housing market: Seems very overvalued (at least in germany). Also with the current uncertainty and inflation its hard to make an investment that pays back over 20-30 years. So building is also difficult. Stocks are very volatile currently. Not only since Iran. To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before. Gold: Only if you are paranoid about collapse of society. It doesn't make sense to invest into s.th. without interest rates. Crypto: Same as gold, but better if you like gamling. I would assume most people who are very rich don't gamble with most of their fortune.
railgunmerlin 7mo ago
didn't they just raise last month?
- ares623 7mo ago
  I think that runway has run out /s
strongpigeon 7mo ago
This has to be just an extension of their previous raise, right? This was a month ago: https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/ https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/
- ricardobeat 7mo ago
  Doesn't look like it, that previous round was entirely Softbank + Nvidia + Amazon, while this one is VC + private investors. The valuation seems odd though, you'd expect $840B post-money from that earlier round?
  - deleted 7mo ago
    [deleted]
- babelfish 7mo ago
  Maybe? Previous valuation is $730B + $122B raised in this announcement = $852B valuation in this announcement (no actual increase in valuation)
  - strongpigeon 7mo ago
    Previous was $730B pre money. This one is $852B post money. So yeah it's the same one. Good catch.
    - ta988 7mo ago
      yup and begging for retailers money.
podgietaru 7mo ago
I can't help but think building an "everything" app is so.. both unbelievably ambitious, and a folly. I am not personally convinced that people want all the things that this super app purports to do. I am from a generation that still sits behind a desktop computer when making "big purchases." I can't even buy a flight on my phone. I am so much less likely to want to have an AI agent do that for me. Then the idea that daily consumption of these products will drive people to use them more at work... I have a very different life outside of work. My use of AI outside of work is exceedingly different to what I use it for at work. I sometimes feel wildly out of touch. But sometimes I view this as the VR moment. To me there are some things that I think may always be preferable to do outside of that ecosystem. And for me, a lot of tasks that 'agents' enable are small enough or important enough that I want to do them myself. I don't think I'll ever be comfortable allowing an agent to call me a taxi, or order food on my behalf. Because the convenience of asking for food isn't worth the chance it'll mess up, and opening an app and looking at a menu is simpler. I also think we're coming to a moment where we can start identifying the markers of AI generated content on sight. And I think there's a growing animosity to it. I might be comfortable asking AI something, but when I am looking for or searching for other content, seeing AI content markers make me angry at this point. To finish, I do just sort of straight up hate the idea that we're comparing this moment to the invention of electricity. It's on the face of it absurd.
- oidar 7mo ago
  >> To finish, I do just sort of straight up hate the idea that we're comparing this moment to the invention of electricity. It's on the face of it absurd. Do you feel that any technology is comparable in it’s impact?
  - BitsAndObjects 7mo ago
    Most of modern medicine, by which I mean each discovery and invention in their own right, stand alongside electricity. Particularly vaccines. AI isn’t there yet. You could turn off AI tomorrow and there’d be a shock but people would quickly switch back. You could not do the same for electricity, medicine, combustion engines (or steam engines/turbines), computers, the internet, modern building materials, etc. You try to swap back off any of those and the modern world (literally and figuratively) collapses. Turn off AI, and there’d be a financial collapse but afterwards everything would return relatively easily to an earlier way of doing things (ye know, the way from just 4 years ago, and which is still 99% of how people do things :) )
sixtyj 7mo ago
> Within a year of launching ChatGPT, we reached $1B in revenue. By the end of 2024 we were generating $1B per quarter. We are now generating $2B in revenue per month. They raised $122B. 122 / 12*2 = 5 years to get your money back (I simplify, I know revenue <> profit) They are so big that almost no one can afford to acquire them. It is similar as someone would like to acquire MSFT or AAPL. WCGW?
- mrcwinn 7mo ago
  Correction: no one can afford to acquire them.
- robertozoia 7mo ago
  Revenue is on metric. Another important metric is gross margin. OpenAI's gross margin is estimated at 33%[0]. They also have to pay Microsoft 20% of revenue. So, for each $1 of revenue: Revenue $1.00 COGS (inference) (0.67) Microsoft (0.20) Gross margin $0.13 That $0.13 must cover "everything else": R&D, payroll, etc., and ideally leave some profit on the table. The problem for OpenAI (and other pure AI companies) is that inference is not like software that sells at marginal cost (build once, sell everywhere), but each token costs money. Inference gets cheaper, but newer models require more computing power and consume more tokens. So the gross margin does not improve over time. Break-even in the future won't come from just growing API usage and subscriber base. [0] https://sacra.com/c/openai/ https://sacra.com/c/openai/
samdjstephens 7mo ago
> The broad consumer reach of ChatGPT creates a powerful distribution channel into the workplace They mention this line in different forms a couple of times in the article. It’s clear they’re pretty rattled about Anthropic’s momentum in enterprise, I wonder how confident they really are in this rationale.
- Ethee 7mo ago
  Kind of makes me wonder how 'accelerated' the timeline of publishing this article was based upon the Claude Code leak today. Considering everyone has gotten a sneak peek at what Anthropic is working on OpenAI might be a little worried. This could also just be coincidence, but this piece really does read like self-encouraging fluff.
  - changoplatanero 7mo ago
    The timing of this coming out today is cause today is the last day of the month/quarter and has nothing to do with Claude.
    - Ethee 7mo ago
      Ah, yeah that makes way more sense, I always forget about financial quarter timings.
  - serioussecurity 7mo ago
    0. These things take an enormous amount of time and coordinating to release.
- zmmmmm 7mo ago
  It's an interesting strategy, I see a pretty big risk from them leaning into it like this. We already have a vibe in my circles of the old "gmail vs yahoo" type thing where if you saw someone had a yahoo mail address you assumed they were technologically illiterate. Similarly it's mildly embarrassing already to say you used ChatGPT for something. It's not unrecoverable, but it's a pretty steep slippery slope they probably don't want to be anywhere near if they care about enterprise.
oulipo2 7mo ago
They are trying very hard to convince themselves that it's going to work, when we see all the models plateauing... it's clearly hitting the ceiling
- thomasahle 7mo ago
  I don't know anyway using these models everyday who think they are hitting a ceiling. If anything there's a plateau between each model release.
  - torben-friis 7mo ago
    I'm seeing diminishing returns, though in fairness we have no idea yet how to integrate properly with existing good practices and principles. I suspect improvement is going to come mainly from improved took usage rather than more impressive models.
- maipen 7mo ago
  I feel that too, every technology has its limits. I use AI daily. But I can’t see the “intelligence“. All I see is fine tuning and bigger datasets. Yesterday I asked claude to fix the color issues of graph. It failed miserably. Opus 4.6 wasn’t able to figure out why the text was grey. It made something up, instead of realizing the problem was simple, oklch wrapped inside a hsl color. hsl(oklch(…)) I easily figured this out by just looking at the css and adding some logs to js. This is not intelligence. This is a tool that’s smart. Not sentient. AGI won’t be achieved by scaling alone.
avaer 7mo ago
This announcement completes the betrayal of their founding principles. "Our goal is to advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return." - Not advancing digital intelligence - While locking people into a superapp - Because they are further constrained to generating financial returns
- class3shock 7mo ago
  Founding principles = initial marketing strategy
- pattt 7mo ago
  Is there a way out of this though? The seed is already planted and everything else is just a PR.
- sharts 7mo ago
  Not too dissimilar from what most companies that start prioritizing growth also do, unfortunately.
- ajam1507 7mo ago
  That was before they knew AI needed a bunch of money.
  - Breza 7mo ago
    I'm not excusing Altman's many many lies, but it is worth noting how many algorithmic advances in the past 20 years were made with relatively little computing power. Think of things like xgboost (2016). A modest computer can run a pretty big dataset on CPU. When Tensorflow was launched in 2015, I played with it on an ancient laptop and it worked just fine. Then I upgraded to a mobile workstation and was still able to keep up with many SOTA models. Turns out LLMs are massively more power hungry than most earlier algorithms, even in NLP.
ltbarcly3 7mo ago
They have to focus on the distant future (where they are frankly unlikely to exist) because they are falling further and further behind in the immediate future. Their latest desperate bid for relevance is a plugin for Claude Code that uses Codex as a second opinion. Please clap.
- nsingh2 7mo ago
  This a big exaggeration. Codex is probably one of the top two LLM programming tools, along with Claude Code. GPT-5.4 models are strong, unlike the initial GPT-5 ones, which were comparatively bad, and can hold up against Opus 4.6. In my experience, they are better at analytical work. I cannot really see how they are "far behind," or how some plugin for Claude Code is a "last desperate bid." The tools are close enough to each other that I regularly use Codex one month and Claude Code the next without much disruption, just to try out any new models or features that might be available. I do not have much visibility into the non-code applications, so maybe it is stickier there. If/when the AI bubble pops and takes OpenAI down with it, I would not expect Anthropic to come out unscathed either.
  - ltbarcly3 7mo ago
    They were years ahead. They managed to generate competitors (Anthropic is OpenAI refugees) by alienating their own employees by being so dishonest and immoral when compared to their own founding principals and even legal documents. They experienced a coup where the primary technical vision of the company was forced out in favor of someone who is comparatively a nontechnical dummy. That was the beginning of the multiple years of stagnation while they burned tens and hundreds of billions of dollars while their competitors caught up and then passed them by. OpenAI is floundering and can't sustain their own burn rate. Their competitors are thriving. This is a market and technology that OpenAI largely created and just a few years in they are behind, losing unprecedented amounts of money, and have no clear path to catch up. Lets be totally clear, they were 3 years ahead 3 years ago and now they are behind. They are literally standing still.
    - nsingh2 7mo ago
alyxya 7mo ago
> Today, we closed our latest funding round with $122 billion in committed capital at a post money valuation of $852 billion. A couple things that stand out to me about this is the use of the phrase "committed capital", which only sounds like a promise that could break from various circumstances, and the valuation of their funding keeps changing so it sounds like a max rather than the valuation every investor invested at.
- interludead 7mo ago
  I think this is more about deal structure than spin
- snoren 7mo ago
  good catch! committed capital is not same as we raised.
- ta988 7mo ago
  that's why they have to open through banks and other less valuable more sliced share system.
- strongpigeon 7mo ago
  I do wonder how much of Amazon's $50B share (per last press release) is in AWS credits rather than money in the bank.
  - dheera 7mo ago
    Probably a lot? It would be much more tax-advantageous to do it this way, $50B worth of credits != $50B worth of spend on Amazon's part, and they might meet in the middle about how much equity that translates to.
    - HWR_14 7mo ago
      I can see a lot of advantages for Amazon, but I don't see why it would be tax-advantageous.
__alexs 7mo ago
I thought they needed $7 trillion or they'd be unable to keep training new models?
- mercatop 7mo ago
  [dead]
smartmic 7mo ago
[dead]
pmdr 7mo ago
The only thing that's really accelerating is how fast you get rate-limited on ChatGPT.
- zozbot234 7mo ago
  The big AI firms are all heavily compute-constrained, so that shouldn't be much of a surprise.
mrdependable 7mo ago
Funny how quickly they have become like every other tech company. There is basically no hint of OpenAI the non-profit anymore. Edit: Why did this go from their press release to a news story?
- pembrook 7mo ago
  Sir, I'm sorry to be the one to tell you this. But you've been in a coma since 2022 after a severe car accident. It's now the year 2026. That dead horse has already been beaten.
  - mrdependable 7mo ago
    They were trying to keep the facade up until they were allowed to become a public benefit corporation. At least that's the way it seemed to me. Now they are fully mask off.
- interludead 7mo ago
  Frontier AI + tens of billions in capex was always going to end here
joaohaas 7mo ago
> This is not just product simplification. It is a distribution and deployment strategy. iykyk
- maxverse 7mo ago
  Are you suggesting this was written by AI?
  - keybored 7mo ago
    It’s not just a suggestion. It’s a demonstration.
    - simonreiff 7mo ago
      It's the demonstration layer
      - Lionga 7mo ago
        agentic demonstration layer
    - dgellow 7mo ago
      And you are so bold for identifying it. You’re not just passively commenting. You’re creating something bigger, larger than yourself.
      - bKHjNaz23wJ 7mo ago
        [dead]
  - wmf 7mo ago
    Why would they not use their own AI?
  - dabbz 7mo ago
    It's a very frequently used structure by LLMs especially ones writing for LinkedIn.
rishabhaiover 7mo ago
> We are now generating $2B in revenue per month What??
- ta988 7mo ago
  Word on the street is that Anthropic is roughly at half that. Hard to know what they include and not, and what their real, non-subsidized costs are.
- rglullis 7mo ago
  They got a very sweet deal from the Pentagon, it seems.
- jsnell 7mo ago
  What what? Are you surprised it's that low, that high, that they can tell what their revenue is, that they report it on a monthly rather than annual basis, or something totally different? It's going to be pretty hard to get a good answer to whatever you're having difficulties understanding if you can't be bothered to write more than a word.
snoren 7mo ago
Money has lost all meaning in tech. 122 Billion raise! This is some kind of dream.
h14h 7mo ago
"Despite unprecedented capital investment in our R&D, our core product isn't getting meaningfully better so now we're building an app." Doesn't really strike me as the kind of statement that comes out of a company that can sustain a ~$1T market cap...
0gs 7mo ago
isn't it weird that there is no attribution to a human here? i mean, eventually, they have to dropkick sama and install GPT itself as king, right? EOQ seems as good a time as any
sidrag22 7mo ago
feels like an insult to readers to try to pretend that their revenue per month is comparable to google or apples growth when the funding is absurdly different, not to mention inflation itself. I am very much onboard with AI within my workflow. I just don't really see a future where openai/anthropic are the absolute front runners for devs though. Maybe OpenAI does just have the better vision by targeting the general public instead, and just competing to become the next google before google can just stay google? What is their next step to ensure local models never overtake them? If i could use opus 4.6 as a local model isntead and wrap it in someone else's cli tool, i 100% do it today. are the future model's gonna be so far beyond in capability that this sounds foolish? the top models are more than enough to keep up with my own features before i can think of more... so how do they stretch further than that? A side note i keep thinking about, how impossible is a world where open source base models are collectively trained similar to a proof of work style pool, and then smaller companies simply spin off their own finishing touches or whatever based on that base model? am i thinking of thinks too simplistically? is this not a possibility?
- thomasahle 7mo ago
  It's hard to train models in the open. All the big players are using lots of "dodgy" training data. Like books, video, code, destinations. If you did that in the open, the lawyers would shut you down.
- simonjgreen 7mo ago
  Anthropic is definitely gaining ground over OpenAI in the business world. Cowork is the absolute hotness right now, and even prompted MSFT to drop their own variant yesterday
  - strongpigeon 7mo ago
    Ask anybody you know that works in Big Tech. They're all pushing hard for Claude Code adoption.
  - operatingthetan 7mo ago
    Codex and Gemini CLI seem 1-2 months behind Claude Code. They will catch up. This race will eventually be won by whoever can come up with the cheapest compute.
synergy20 7mo ago
well we do need at least two powerful AI companies, so they can cross checkout each other when I use them.
simonebrunozzi 7mo ago
No, they didn't raise $122B as the HN title implies. A big chunk of that $122B is a "maybe" that depends on various things that need to happen in the future. Oh, man... I can't wait to see where this is going. Might not be pretty after all.
- jredwards 7mo ago
  Seems like all of OpenAI's "deals" are announcement fodder with no real contract, primed to quietly fall through later.
- Aurornis 7mo ago
  Having large funding rounds contingent on meeting milestones is common. Always has been.
  - ares623 7mo ago
    The assumption that's conveniently left out is that the milestones are realistic
  - wmf 7mo ago
    Why not announce the funding after the milestones have been met?
    - apparent 7mo ago
      It's splashier this way, and is meant to shape the narrative, make other companies fear their warchest, and make hiring easier. Of course, those who are in-the-know won't be fooled, but the perception of the general public will be set in stone by the PR framing.
      - heyethan 7mo ago
        [flagged]
    - Aurornis 7mo ago
aurareturn 7mo ago
$2b/month which is $24b/year. Not as much as I expected considering they were at $20b by end of 2025.[0] They only added $4b since? Anthropic had $19b by end of February 2026 and they added $6b in February alone.[1] This means if they added another $6b in March, they're higher than OpenAI already. However, I heard that OpenAI and Anthropic report revenue in a different way. OpenAI takes 20% of revenue from Azure sales and reports revenue on that 20%. Anthropic reports all revenue, including AWS's share.[2] [0]https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-revenue-crosses-20-billion-2025-2026-01-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-... [1]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-arr-surges-19-billion-151028403.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-arr-surges-19-billi... [2]https://x.com/EthanChoi7/status/2036638459868385394 https://x.com/EthanChoi7/status/2036638459868385394
- troupo 7mo ago
  And that is revenue only. In the past 15 or so years most US companies (and especially startups) always talk about revenue only. Wheras only profit should matter. E.g. what good is 20 billion per year when "OpenAI is targeting roughly $600 billion in total compute spending through 2030". That is $150 billion per year?
  - merlindru 7mo ago
    why should only profits matter? if i had a killer product today that i just need to sell tomorrow, wouldn't you still invest today knowing i'll probably only start to make money tomorrow (or perhaps next week)? the expectation is that they'll eventually make money. they can't raise forever. only startups are not profitable for a few years. but most companies that have existed for a long while have been profitable and since they're expected to make a LOT of money, everyone wants a piece of that future pie, pushing up the valuation and amount raised to admittedly somewhat delusional levels like here
    - Barrin92 7mo ago
      not if your product is selling two dollars for one dollar and as soon as you'll start to charge more I'll switch to one of your twenty competitors profit isn't a function of having a killer product, it's a function of having no competition
alvis 7mo ago
With $122B what are you going to build next? Spaceships?
- topspin 7mo ago
  All the high performance RAM, frontier node wafer capacity, flash and disk drives on Earth. Also, all the gas turbines.
  - Traubenfuchs 7mo ago
    Universal paperclips. And here I am asking ChatGPT which type of onion to use dor coq au vin.
  - zozbot234 7mo ago
    If they buy all the jet engines too (to turn them into gas turbines) they can be carbon neutral. More gas burned, but less jet fuel. It's a win-win.
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- bigwheels 7mo ago
  Rather than advancing the state of the art, they'll use it to slow down competition by starving them of resources. In the style of a monopoly.
- paxys 7mo ago
  Nah, you'll get a few days worth of inference.
- jillesvangurp 7mo ago
  Google makes money like that in their sleep from mostly just advertising. OpenAI charges about 20$/month to tens of millions of users right now. 240/year. About 12 billion per year. That's a market that could grown to billions of people with a long tail probably not paying a lot but being served ads; and a fat high end paying a lot more than that for an ad free/premium experience. They should be able to reach billions of users. It's why Google is matching investments in AI like this entirely from the profit from ads. Going to space isn't that expensive. SpaceX bootstrapped with a lot less than that.
cmiles8 7mo ago
This all smells fishy. They didn’t “raise” $122B. Raise means someone put funds in your bank account and said send us the next quarterly report to tell us how our investment is doing. They have pieces from paper of folks saying they may put up funds or goods and services in that amount. But it’s important to remember that: 1. While they are “raising” commitments others are backing out of deals (see Disney, various data center things). Big deals announced to major fanfare are falling through. 2. They slashed capital expenditure for the future after previously boasting about all the commitments. This is turning into bonkers math of X + Y - X + Z + W - 1/2 of Y = ? On trying to keep track of what’s actually “raised / real” vs what was PR puffery that folks ran away from later. 3. Circular financing still seems to be going on. Big difference of here’s cash, have fun and various “commitments” and balance sheet games that seem to still be going on. Net net this all still looks very scary and iffy at best.
- zitterbewegung 7mo ago
  Are we truly arguing semantics on HN which is a news aggregator for startups and everyone truly knows what a "raise" is and it is obviously not funds in your bank account? I don't disagree with the rest of your comment and the core thesis is valid that OpenAI is very much doing circular financing. Edit: A raise comes with stipulations on what you can use the money for. I don't know if I was being too mean about responding to a parent but before you comment just google what a raise has..
  - sanex 7mo ago
    Other than funds in a bank account I do not know what it would mean.
    - zitterbewegung 7mo ago
      Stipulations on what you can use the funds for.
      - iAMkenough 7mo ago
victorbuilds 7mo ago
[flagged]
- nenadg 7mo ago
  Don't know why so many down votes for something that's clearly just another opinion
  - winrid 7mo ago
    Probably because it reads a little like an LLM and also has an emdash
    - aurareturn 7mo ago
      I’ve seen a lot of anti AI people use ChatGPT to write why AI bubble is about to pop. Ironic, isn’t it?
      - toraway 7mo ago
        > I ship code every day. I use Claude, I use GPT, I run llama locally. An "Anti AI" person...
- dang 7mo ago
  Please don't post generated text to HN. We ban accounts that keep doing this. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47340079 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47340079
Jaskhy 7mo ago
The title is incorrect. The $122B includes previous promises. They raised an additional $12B of promises: "The round totaled $122 billion of committed capital, up from the $110 billion figure that the company announced in February. SoftBank co-led the round alongside other investors, including Andreessen Horowitz and D. E. Shaw Ventures, OpenAI said." This IPO, if anyone underwrites it, is going to fleece retail so hard. Better make it a SPAC with the help of Chamath and Cantor & Fitzgerald.
ds2df 7mo ago
Nah this raise (commitment) is... blah. Last announcement I reckon pre-IPO and the inevitable collapse.
MinimalAction 7mo ago
I hate to read this line when academics and graduate students who work in basic and hard sciences have their funding cut. The grand funding that pays minimum wage to grad students is a burden for this society, yet for a company that took all the valuable data from sources that never got credit, raises billions of dollars. Open says the name, but closed it is by operation. Sorry for this rant, but the priorities of this world suck.
- DrewADesign 7mo ago
  Or all of the people that they didn’t ask, let alone compensate, that made all of the stuff they munged up for training data, so they could sell cheap knockoffs in the same markets.
- danny_codes 7mo ago
  We’re all feeling it. Unfortunately our country is run by a dude with dementia and a carnival of Fox News hosts. But I suspect that’ll u-turn hard when the economy implodes
shafyy 7mo ago
Looking forward to the movie about this absolute scammer Sam Altman when this is all said and done.
BloodyIron 7mo ago
Inflation is a hell of a drug.
josefritzishere 7mo ago
Thsi is the most blatant pump & dump scam I've ever seen. It's going to crash like a meteor.
wei03288 7mo ago
[dead]
ekropotin 7mo ago
Are we going to see a trillion dollar IPO?
mrkramer 7mo ago
Good luck competing with Google which has "unlimited" budget.
mbgerring 7mo ago
Each passing day the lie that markets efficiently allocate capital is further exposed
jmward01 7mo ago
There is a lot of talk about the AI bubble. I think there are comparisons to the late 90's/early 00's here with early stars rising quickly but, ultimately, falling. Since essentially everything touches the internet now it is clear that the 'internet bubble' was more of a shakeup of companies than a real over-hype of the internet. That, I think, is at play right now too with the 'AI bubble'. AI isn't going away but some of the early stars may not make it. So, the real question here is: Is OpenAI Netscape, or are they Google?
- aurareturn 7mo ago
  I don’t care if OpenAI is Netscape or Google. What I want to know is are we in 1994 of the AI bubble or 1999? Because even after the dotcom bubble popped, it was still much better than it was in 1994.
  - jmward01 7mo ago
    I think the cycle is way faster than it used to be so even if we are in 1994, the pop is probably pretty close.
    - aurareturn 7mo ago
      Given that Nvidia's forward earnings in 2026 is 19, which is lower than the average for S&P500, what do you think a "pop" will do to Nvidia stock? Wallstreet is already pricing Nvidia to have no growth above the average S&P500 company. More importantly, do you think that a "pop" means supply of compute is suddenly more than demand?
      - eiskek 7mo ago
        What the heck are you talking about? Nvidia’s value of growth assets are already priced in. You’ve written so many posts with glaring flaws. Are you trying to come across as smart? Lmao
        7mo ago
outside1234 7mo ago
God help us if all of our retirement index funds are forced to buy this bankruptcy bomb.
bentt 7mo ago
Intuitively, it just doesn’t feel like OpenAI has a trillion dollar moat.
- Gagarin1917 7mo ago
  Alphabet is worth $3.5 Trillion. What’s their moat?
  - MinimalAction 7mo ago
    Much more than Google search. Cloud, Waymo, Verily, Deepmind, stake in Claude. So many bets other than just ads.
    - Gagarin1917 7mo ago
      None of those are moats, though. None of it is “something competition cannot do.” The concept of moats just has too much weight put on it around here.
TheAlchemist 7mo ago
"Commited capital" - is this the same commited as the $500B for the Stargate project ? Not gonna lie, I hate those announcements lately. It's full bullshit mode, worse than the Dot-com bubble. Numbers don't make any sense, any more, and yet journalist don't ask any real questions...
jacquesm 7mo ago
Fortunately, I was afraid that this was another bubble. /s I wonder what the bet is here, long term that valuation is going to have to go up even further for this investment to make sense so they're clearly betting that at IPO time they'll be able to convincingly demonstrate AGI or something extremely close to it. That's a pretty risky bet, and meanwhile, whatever they come up with will be a commodity within a year. And that's besides OpenAI no longer being seen as the dominant player or the player with the best edge.
outside1234 7mo ago
Google is totally going to run this company out of money aren't they?
whalesalad 7mo ago
This is so bad. OpenAI has already singlehandedly destroyed the global flash memory market with their war chest, this will just give them more power.
dzonga 7mo ago
does Softbank run of out money i.e announce these deals but never follow up ?
iheartbiggpus 7mo ago
Would be nice to have this seperated from, i-owe-you, vs actual funding that's liquid!
rkagerer 7mo ago
Ugh, does this mean I should say goodbye to what little RAM and other hardware remains available on the consumer market?
ghm2199 7mo ago
Does anyone know if this, like the spacex/xAI stock — will list on nasdaq? And will it be part of every market cap weighted index fund like VOO(S&P) etc or just for nasdax-100 etfs? The exchanges are bending head over heels to accommodate these IPOs[1] and make our retirement index funds the exit-liquidity strategy to the thievery of pump and dump actors that buy it low and then sell high? As i understand the way thievery works is: 1. List at many multiples of market valuation on an exchange. So if you company is just 10 billion$ nasdaq and theives collude and say "can make it 100 billion..". 2. Lots of institutional investors and rich billionaires get stock options. 3. All market weighted index funds — aka all *your* low expense ratio ETF money — have to re-balance and buy them, raising their value: the exit-liquidity event 4. Rich A**** get richer by making an profit by selling higher. [1] https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/31/index-providers-shouldnt-bend-the-rules-for-elon-musk https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/31/index-providers...
- danny_codes 7mo ago
  It does seem likely. Iirc SpaceX wants to waive the year long holding period before their stock enters the indexes. Which to me seems like a very naked attempt at getting 401k to bag hold
- HWR_14 7mo ago
  They are pushing hard to be part of the nasdaq 100. You can shift your retirement funds from the nasdaq to the Dow or s&p
colwont 7mo ago
This is going to be bad
shreyssh 7mo ago
[flagged]
whatsakandr 7mo ago
I do not understand how these companies can have such high valuations when minimax m2.7 is going to be open weight.
y1n0 7mo ago
Pardon my ignorance, but how can a company that spends almost $2 for every $1 it brings in be worth anything?
cat-turner 7mo ago
Standby for tiered information. Have a question on health symptoms? You must subscribe to openAI health Have a question on math? You must subscribe to openAI math The only way they can manage this type of monetization is a lot of compute to process outputs.
blobbers 7mo ago
I get the appetite for frontier models. But why not just invest in Google. Do they really expect the return profile of OpenAI to be vastly different than Google’s Gemini?
- Gagarin1917 7mo ago
  I imagine they get a bigger slice of the pie with OpenAI than they do with Google, an extremely mature company who’s had investors buying in for 30 years. Alphabet’s market cap is $3.5 trillion, compared to OpenAI’s $850 billion reported here.
- flowerthoughts 7mo ago
  Google has little need for more money, so the price will be much higher. OpenAI being a separate entity also means Google's competitors (Microsoft, Amazon) can invest there without looking silly.
- cowl 7mo ago
  it's not really investing though. Amazon will provide 50B worth of compute and Nvidia will provide 30B worth of chips etc. Google doesnt need any of those. The only one that is really investing is SoftBank who is pushing for a faster IPO so they hope to make a profit on that and again Google does not offer that opportunity
imta71770 7mo ago
[dead]
convexly 7mo ago
Feels like the number is more about FOMO than fundamentals at this point.
nickphx 7mo ago
the hype machine knows no bounds. it should be illegal to publish such farcical claims when they are intended to manipulate markets...
Aeroi 7mo ago
thats a really large number
childrapst 7mo ago
[dead]
natas 7mo ago
Microsoft will buy OpenAI for $500B, rebrand it as Microsoft AI.
- rhubarbtree 7mo ago
  This is where they are headed. But the real price will be a lot less.
- dartharva 7mo ago
  With what, Azure credits?
Jaco07 7mo ago
With $122 billion at your disposal, what do you plan to build next—spaceships?
daemin 7mo ago
What if all the people currently using these "AI" services are the entire market for those services? I'm pretty sure everyone that wants to use LLMs is already doing so and already paying for the service. That would mean the only way to increase growth would be to charge more per token and to get the existing people to use more tokens. Both of which seem to be only what mature companies do when trying to squeeze the cash cow for all it's worth. It also explains why they're trying to stuff AI into everything, to keep the numbers up, and to get everyone to try and pay them money.
- mxkopy 7mo ago
  The market hasn’t been built out yet. There’s that post from a couple days ago where someone frontloaded the entire UX of an operating system onto an LLM, so you just tell the hardware what you want to do and it does it. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47557165 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47557165 The growth is there but it’s going to be a marathon, not a sprint. I don’t know why everyone’s in such a goddamn hurry all the time
- natas 7mo ago
  Give it a year or two, and apple or any other hardware will have unified memory OR AMD will have a good offering to run all that stuff locally. It won't be as good as Claude, but it'll do for 90% of the things. It will be expensive as first, just like the first mainframes, then give it another 5 years or so, and it'll be affordable.
  - citizenpaul 7mo ago
    I'd argue this has already happened. The highest end mac pro is $10k and down from there. We might be returning to the appliance business model. Its just a matter of Productizing the software to plug and play light office admin work.
    - daemin 7mo ago
      People that do light office work tend to have light office machines, which are very unlikely to have powerful NPUs or even a lot of RAM. Therefore with this minimal setup is it even feasible to do any sort of LLM based work locally on those machines, or will they all be dumb terminals connecting to hosted LLMs of the big companies? This is also what I wonder, what practical applications can you actually do locally on something like a minimum spec NPU?
camillomiller 7mo ago
Almost a trillion for a company that hasn’t proved it can reach any form of profitability, all on the promise of an elusive messianic concept of machine superintelligence through probabilistic algorithms. Basically like praying cancer away. Peak magical thinking, peak America.
tsoukase 7mo ago
Fortunately, OpenAI's naming didn't cause a wave of greedy and predatory new companies, like OpenHealth, OpenEnergy, OpenCompute. The non-sexy name of their product using the originating algorithm (GPT) is punishing them. It could be anything else more attractive that would bring more customers. Because, for me, a good, inspiratory, engaging name is half the success.
- slashdave 7mo ago
  https://www.opencompute.org https://www.opencompute.org
etcheese 7mo ago
[dead]
_HMCB_ 7mo ago
Amazing. Reporting two mercurial numbers as if they were cornerstones.
Chyzwar 7mo ago
This leak and looking into source code gave me an impulse to try OpenCode with codex models. I am very impressed with how well it works, and the UI is beautiful.
ilaksh 7mo ago
What will happen first? The Singularity arrives, and hyper-intelligent AI causes such rapid technological change that the world becomes unrecognizable overnight? Or OpenAI pays off it's investors? Lol. I am not sure if I believe in the Singularity or not. But it's kind of the best story ever to support the game of musical chairs that is Silicon Valley investing.
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
jongjong 7mo ago
People won't be able to afford to leave their beds because food prices will be too high to justify the energy cost of standing up. Every joule of human energy is energy that could have been better spent to produce AI slop for other AI agents to consume.
iririririr 7mo ago
the only lesson the common man should take from these valuations: start to protest against AI conpanies being included in the sp500! unless you're a private investors in these preIPO, the whole plan is to get big enough, get forced entry into indexes, and leave early with everyone else holding the bag.
motbus3 7mo ago
I lost track when business analysts stopped analysing CEO-level commitments and outputs and performance. right now, it seems that whatever promise is taken as certain and company puffery (using the language invented by themselves) is taken lightly to tricky investor in throwing money. the whole thing did not yet crash because it seems they can still promise even more without actually delivering definite results
lazyguythugman 7mo ago
I still don't get how a non profit can become a for profit entity on a whim.
interludead 7mo ago
"Not yet profitable" doing a lot of heavy lifting here for an 852B valuation
spicymaki 7mo ago
LLMs are definitely a game changing technology, but there is just so much fake money in the market right now (circular deals, paper valuations, etc.) that I cannot take this seriously. At some point the musical chairs will stop and we will all be saying how could we let this happen? Where are the regulators (rhetorical question)?
- limaoscarjuliet 7mo ago
  As with every bubble, we, the people, will pay for it. There will be recession, inflation and general "one step back" to hopefully move "two steps forward" one day in the future.
  - apparent 7mo ago
    I think AI will actually produce price deflation in some areas. There could be inflation based on mechanisms you describe, but it's obviously making it cheaper to make some products/services.
    - doomslayer999 7mo ago
      [dead]
1970-01-01 7mo ago
You do know that not all of these AI companies can become be trillion dollar companies, right? Easy come, easy go has no limit.
sharadov 7mo ago
I can understand why Amazon, MS and Nvidia invested - nefarious circular deals, but Softbank? I mean who the heck is giving Masayoshi Son money to invest? Behooves me!
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
BLACKCRAB 7mo ago
[dead]
aimemobe 7mo ago
[flagged]

531 points by surprisetalk 7mo ago

https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai

_diyar 7mo ago

Are there any Polymarket / Kalshi bets on the over-under for the price? I wonder when the music will stop.

tfehring 7mo ago
https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-above https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-a...
- aurareturn 7mo ago
  I don't gamble but if I did, I'd bet a lot on $1.6t.

brcmthrowaway 7mo ago

Wow. I doubt Anthropic can raise that. Are they more efficient, can they do with less?

strongpigeon 7mo ago
Given how all of Big Tech (except Google obviously) is going all in on Claude Code, I wouldn't be surprised if Anthropic becomes profitable first.
rvz 7mo ago
Anthropic doesn't have anything else other than the Claude models. But notice that no-one, not a single mention of Deepseek tells me that they are preparing to scare everyone again. Which is why Dario continues to scare-monger on local models. Sometimes you do not need hundreds of billions of dollars for inference when it can be done locally with efficient software; and Google proved that. But where is the money in that? So continues the flawed belief in infinitely buying GPUs to scale which Nvidia needs you to do. Only a matter of time for local models to reach Opus level. We are 1 or at most 2 years behind that and Anthropic knows that.
- randomNumber7 7mo ago
  Local models just make no economic sense since the GPU will idle 99% of the time.
  - twoodfin 7mo ago
    [dead]
  - zozbot234 7mo ago
    You have a GPU already (at least an iGPU and an NPU on most newer platforms) as part of your computer, might as well get some use out of it with local inference. And trying to do inference on a larger model with an undersized GPU will have you idling a lot less than 99% - but that still makes a lot of sense for most casual users who will only rarely need a genuine "Pro" class answer from AI. Doing that locally is way less hassle than paying for a subscription or messing with API spend.
  - amazingamazing 7mo ago
    False on a team that’s distributed
- p12tic 7mo ago
  > Only a matter of time for local models to reach Opus level. We are 1 or at most 2 years behind that and Anthropic knows that. Can confirm. Kimi K2.5 is pretty intelligent and most of the time there's no difference between Opus and Kimi.

adinhitlore 7mo ago

[flagged]

tencentshill 7mo ago
You should consider taking a break from LLMs. They are misleading you.
- adinhitlore 7mo ago
  personal estimation too, the motivation was to create somethin faster than a transformer since transformers were absurdly slow on my cpu - and it's very obviously faster. I get it llm hype you ad adfinitum regardless...

podgietaru 7mo ago

"This is not just product simplification. It is a distribution and deployment strategy." I am so sick of AI writing.

alex_duf 7mo ago
corporate speech existed long before AI
- BitsAndObjects 7mo ago
  Mmm, it’s almost like OpenAI built statistical models using pre-existing corporate speech as the target data... ;)
baal80spam 7mo ago
Get used to it. All PR statements nowadays get AI treatment before going public.
verbify 7mo ago
The snowclone is annoying, but comparisons are sometimes necessary. The problem here is the actual content is sloppy.

rvz 7mo ago

No mention of "AGI" this time. Since we all knew it was a scam. But this is the most damning of them all: > The OpenAI flywheel is simple. More compute drives more intelligent models. More intelligent models drive better products. Better products drive faster adoption, more revenue and more cashflow. FTX had a "flywheel". It fell off. Being saddled with hundreds of billions of debt makes this situation ten times worse.

aanet 7mo ago

> The OpenAI flywheel is simple. More compute drives more intelligent models. More intelligent models drive better products. Better products drive faster adoption, more revenue and more cashflow. That gives us the ability to reinvest and deliver intelligence more efficiently to consumers, enterprises, and builders around the world. -x- In short, the musical chairs are still playing... Keep on walkin' round, y'all, till the music stops. /s

nemo1618 7mo ago

I'm old enough to remember when companies worth $1 billion were called "unicorns." Now we have a company raising 122 times that? Valued at nearly 1000 times that...? At least they're throwing consumers a bone via the ARK deal. It's crazy how little AI exposure is available to anyone who isn't already wealthy and/or connected.

chilipepperhott 7mo ago
I would not call an effective 2.9% expense ratio "throwing a bone".
- munk-a 7mo ago
  Also, the valuation for such a debt laden company should be viewed with great skepticism. I'm afraid a lot of mutual funds will end up holding the bags.
- mizzao 7mo ago
  It's not that far off from the standard 2% mgmt fee and 20% of excess performance?
nine_k 7mo ago
I think this is reality-distortion field rivaling that of Jobs', and a crisis of faith. Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI.
- randomNumber7 7mo ago
  > Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI. This is the main reason we see this insane investment into AI imo. If you imagine having lots of money, where should you invest that currently? Housing market: Seems very overvalued (at least in germany). Also with the current uncertainty and inflation its hard to make an investment that pays back over 20-30 years. So building is also difficult. Stocks are very volatile currently. Not only since Iran. To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before. Gold: Only if you are paranoid about collapse of society. It doesn't make sense to invest into s.th. without interest rates. Crypto: Same as gold, but better if you like gamling. I would assume most people who are very rich don't gamble with most of their fortune.

railgunmerlin 7mo ago

didn't they just raise last month?

ares623 7mo ago
I think that runway has run out /s

strongpigeon 7mo ago

This has to be just an extension of their previous raise, right? This was a month ago: https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/ https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/

ricardobeat 7mo ago
Doesn't look like it, that previous round was entirely Softbank + Nvidia + Amazon, while this one is VC + private investors. The valuation seems odd though, you'd expect $840B post-money from that earlier round?
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
babelfish 7mo ago
Maybe? Previous valuation is $730B + $122B raised in this announcement = $852B valuation in this announcement (no actual increase in valuation)
- strongpigeon 7mo ago
  Previous was $730B pre money. This one is $852B post money. So yeah it's the same one. Good catch.
  - ta988 7mo ago
    yup and begging for retailers money.

podgietaru 7mo ago

I can't help but think building an "everything" app is so.. both unbelievably ambitious, and a folly. I am not personally convinced that people want all the things that this super app purports to do. I am from a generation that still sits behind a desktop computer when making "big purchases." I can't even buy a flight on my phone. I am so much less likely to want to have an AI agent do that for me. Then the idea that daily consumption of these products will drive people to use them more at work... I have a very different life outside of work. My use of AI outside of work is exceedingly different to what I use it for at work. I sometimes feel wildly out of touch. But sometimes I view this as the VR moment. To me there are some things that I think may always be preferable to do outside of that ecosystem. And for me, a lot of tasks that 'agents' enable are small enough or important enough that I want to do them myself. I don't think I'll ever be comfortable allowing an agent to call me a taxi, or order food on my behalf. Because the convenience of asking for food isn't worth the chance it'll mess up, and opening an app and looking at a menu is simpler. I also think we're coming to a moment where we can start identifying the markers of AI generated content on sight. And I think there's a growing animosity to it. I might be comfortable asking AI something, but when I am looking for or searching for other content, seeing AI content markers make me angry at this point. To finish, I do just sort of straight up hate the idea that we're comparing this moment to the invention of electricity. It's on the face of it absurd.

oidar 7mo ago
>> To finish, I do just sort of straight up hate the idea that we're comparing this moment to the invention of electricity. It's on the face of it absurd. Do you feel that any technology is comparable in it’s impact?
- BitsAndObjects 7mo ago
  Most of modern medicine, by which I mean each discovery and invention in their own right, stand alongside electricity. Particularly vaccines. AI isn’t there yet. You could turn off AI tomorrow and there’d be a shock but people would quickly switch back. You could not do the same for electricity, medicine, combustion engines (or steam engines/turbines), computers, the internet, modern building materials, etc. You try to swap back off any of those and the modern world (literally and figuratively) collapses. Turn off AI, and there’d be a financial collapse but afterwards everything would return relatively easily to an earlier way of doing things (ye know, the way from just 4 years ago, and which is still 99% of how people do things :) )

sixtyj 7mo ago

> Within a year of launching ChatGPT, we reached $1B in revenue. By the end of 2024 we were generating $1B per quarter. We are now generating $2B in revenue per month. They raised $122B. 122 / 12*2 = 5 years to get your money back (I simplify, I know revenue <> profit) They are so big that almost no one can afford to acquire them. It is similar as someone would like to acquire MSFT or AAPL. WCGW?

mrcwinn 7mo ago
Correction: no one can afford to acquire them.
robertozoia 7mo ago
Revenue is on metric. Another important metric is gross margin. OpenAI's gross margin is estimated at 33%[0]. They also have to pay Microsoft 20% of revenue. So, for each $1 of revenue: Revenue $1.00 COGS (inference) (0.67) Microsoft (0.20) Gross margin $0.13 That $0.13 must cover "everything else": R&D, payroll, etc., and ideally leave some profit on the table. The problem for OpenAI (and other pure AI companies) is that inference is not like software that sells at marginal cost (build once, sell everywhere), but each token costs money. Inference gets cheaper, but newer models require more computing power and consume more tokens. So the gross margin does not improve over time. Break-even in the future won't come from just growing API usage and subscriber base. [0] https://sacra.com/c/openai/ https://sacra.com/c/openai/

samdjstephens 7mo ago

> The broad consumer reach of ChatGPT creates a powerful distribution channel into the workplace They mention this line in different forms a couple of times in the article. It’s clear they’re pretty rattled about Anthropic’s momentum in enterprise, I wonder how confident they really are in this rationale.

Ethee 7mo ago
Kind of makes me wonder how 'accelerated' the timeline of publishing this article was based upon the Claude Code leak today. Considering everyone has gotten a sneak peek at what Anthropic is working on OpenAI might be a little worried. This could also just be coincidence, but this piece really does read like self-encouraging fluff.
- changoplatanero 7mo ago
  The timing of this coming out today is cause today is the last day of the month/quarter and has nothing to do with Claude.
  - Ethee 7mo ago
    Ah, yeah that makes way more sense, I always forget about financial quarter timings.
- serioussecurity 7mo ago
  0. These things take an enormous amount of time and coordinating to release.
zmmmmm 7mo ago
It's an interesting strategy, I see a pretty big risk from them leaning into it like this. We already have a vibe in my circles of the old "gmail vs yahoo" type thing where if you saw someone had a yahoo mail address you assumed they were technologically illiterate. Similarly it's mildly embarrassing already to say you used ChatGPT for something. It's not unrecoverable, but it's a pretty steep slippery slope they probably don't want to be anywhere near if they care about enterprise.

oulipo2 7mo ago

They are trying very hard to convince themselves that it's going to work, when we see all the models plateauing... it's clearly hitting the ceiling

thomasahle 7mo ago
I don't know anyway using these models everyday who think they are hitting a ceiling. If anything there's a plateau between each model release.
- torben-friis 7mo ago
  I'm seeing diminishing returns, though in fairness we have no idea yet how to integrate properly with existing good practices and principles. I suspect improvement is going to come mainly from improved took usage rather than more impressive models.
maipen 7mo ago
I feel that too, every technology has its limits. I use AI daily. But I can’t see the “intelligence“. All I see is fine tuning and bigger datasets. Yesterday I asked claude to fix the color issues of graph. It failed miserably. Opus 4.6 wasn’t able to figure out why the text was grey. It made something up, instead of realizing the problem was simple, oklch wrapped inside a hsl color. hsl(oklch(…)) I easily figured this out by just looking at the css and adding some logs to js. This is not intelligence. This is a tool that’s smart. Not sentient. AGI won’t be achieved by scaling alone.

avaer 7mo ago

This announcement completes the betrayal of their founding principles. "Our goal is to advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return." - Not advancing digital intelligence - While locking people into a superapp - Because they are further constrained to generating financial returns

class3shock 7mo ago
Founding principles = initial marketing strategy
pattt 7mo ago
Is there a way out of this though? The seed is already planted and everything else is just a PR.
sharts 7mo ago
Not too dissimilar from what most companies that start prioritizing growth also do, unfortunately.
ajam1507 7mo ago
That was before they knew AI needed a bunch of money.
- Breza 7mo ago
  I'm not excusing Altman's many many lies, but it is worth noting how many algorithmic advances in the past 20 years were made with relatively little computing power. Think of things like xgboost (2016). A modest computer can run a pretty big dataset on CPU. When Tensorflow was launched in 2015, I played with it on an ancient laptop and it worked just fine. Then I upgraded to a mobile workstation and was still able to keep up with many SOTA models. Turns out LLMs are massively more power hungry than most earlier algorithms, even in NLP.

ltbarcly3 7mo ago

They have to focus on the distant future (where they are frankly unlikely to exist) because they are falling further and further behind in the immediate future. Their latest desperate bid for relevance is a plugin for Claude Code that uses Codex as a second opinion. Please clap.

nsingh2 7mo ago
This a big exaggeration. Codex is probably one of the top two LLM programming tools, along with Claude Code. GPT-5.4 models are strong, unlike the initial GPT-5 ones, which were comparatively bad, and can hold up against Opus 4.6. In my experience, they are better at analytical work. I cannot really see how they are "far behind," or how some plugin for Claude Code is a "last desperate bid." The tools are close enough to each other that I regularly use Codex one month and Claude Code the next without much disruption, just to try out any new models or features that might be available. I do not have much visibility into the non-code applications, so maybe it is stickier there. If/when the AI bubble pops and takes OpenAI down with it, I would not expect Anthropic to come out unscathed either.
- ltbarcly3 7mo ago
  They were years ahead. They managed to generate competitors (Anthropic is OpenAI refugees) by alienating their own employees by being so dishonest and immoral when compared to their own founding principals and even legal documents. They experienced a coup where the primary technical vision of the company was forced out in favor of someone who is comparatively a nontechnical dummy. That was the beginning of the multiple years of stagnation while they burned tens and hundreds of billions of dollars while their competitors caught up and then passed them by. OpenAI is floundering and can't sustain their own burn rate. Their competitors are thriving. This is a market and technology that OpenAI largely created and just a few years in they are behind, losing unprecedented amounts of money, and have no clear path to catch up. Lets be totally clear, they were 3 years ahead 3 years ago and now they are behind. They are literally standing still.
  - nsingh2 7mo ago

alyxya 7mo ago

> Today, we closed our latest funding round with $122 billion in committed capital at a post money valuation of $852 billion. A couple things that stand out to me about this is the use of the phrase "committed capital", which only sounds like a promise that could break from various circumstances, and the valuation of their funding keeps changing so it sounds like a max rather than the valuation every investor invested at.

interludead 7mo ago
I think this is more about deal structure than spin
snoren 7mo ago
good catch! committed capital is not same as we raised.
ta988 7mo ago
that's why they have to open through banks and other less valuable more sliced share system.
strongpigeon 7mo ago
I do wonder how much of Amazon's $50B share (per last press release) is in AWS credits rather than money in the bank.
- dheera 7mo ago
  Probably a lot? It would be much more tax-advantageous to do it this way, $50B worth of credits != $50B worth of spend on Amazon's part, and they might meet in the middle about how much equity that translates to.
  - HWR_14 7mo ago
    I can see a lot of advantages for Amazon, but I don't see why it would be tax-advantageous.

__alexs 7mo ago

I thought they needed $7 trillion or they'd be unable to keep training new models?

mercatop 7mo ago
[dead]

smartmic 7mo ago

[dead]

pmdr 7mo ago

The only thing that's really accelerating is how fast you get rate-limited on ChatGPT.

zozbot234 7mo ago
The big AI firms are all heavily compute-constrained, so that shouldn't be much of a surprise.

mrdependable 7mo ago

Funny how quickly they have become like every other tech company. There is basically no hint of OpenAI the non-profit anymore. Edit: Why did this go from their press release to a news story?

pembrook 7mo ago
Sir, I'm sorry to be the one to tell you this. But you've been in a coma since 2022 after a severe car accident. It's now the year 2026. That dead horse has already been beaten.
- mrdependable 7mo ago
  They were trying to keep the facade up until they were allowed to become a public benefit corporation. At least that's the way it seemed to me. Now they are fully mask off.
interludead 7mo ago
Frontier AI + tens of billions in capex was always going to end here

joaohaas 7mo ago

> This is not just product simplification. It is a distribution and deployment strategy. iykyk

maxverse 7mo ago
Are you suggesting this was written by AI?
- keybored 7mo ago
  It’s not just a suggestion. It’s a demonstration.
  - simonreiff 7mo ago
    It's the demonstration layer
    - Lionga 7mo ago
      agentic demonstration layer
  - dgellow 7mo ago
    And you are so bold for identifying it. You’re not just passively commenting. You’re creating something bigger, larger than yourself.
    - bKHjNaz23wJ 7mo ago
      [dead]
- wmf 7mo ago
  Why would they not use their own AI?
- dabbz 7mo ago
  It's a very frequently used structure by LLMs especially ones writing for LinkedIn.

rishabhaiover 7mo ago

> We are now generating $2B in revenue per month What??

ta988 7mo ago
Word on the street is that Anthropic is roughly at half that. Hard to know what they include and not, and what their real, non-subsidized costs are.
rglullis 7mo ago
They got a very sweet deal from the Pentagon, it seems.
jsnell 7mo ago
What what? Are you surprised it's that low, that high, that they can tell what their revenue is, that they report it on a monthly rather than annual basis, or something totally different? It's going to be pretty hard to get a good answer to whatever you're having difficulties understanding if you can't be bothered to write more than a word.

snoren 7mo ago

Money has lost all meaning in tech. 122 Billion raise! This is some kind of dream.

h14h 7mo ago

"Despite unprecedented capital investment in our R&D, our core product isn't getting meaningfully better so now we're building an app." Doesn't really strike me as the kind of statement that comes out of a company that can sustain a ~$1T market cap...

0gs 7mo ago

isn't it weird that there is no attribution to a human here? i mean, eventually, they have to dropkick sama and install GPT itself as king, right? EOQ seems as good a time as any

sidrag22 7mo ago

feels like an insult to readers to try to pretend that their revenue per month is comparable to google or apples growth when the funding is absurdly different, not to mention inflation itself. I am very much onboard with AI within my workflow. I just don't really see a future where openai/anthropic are the absolute front runners for devs though. Maybe OpenAI does just have the better vision by targeting the general public instead, and just competing to become the next google before google can just stay google? What is their next step to ensure local models never overtake them? If i could use opus 4.6 as a local model isntead and wrap it in someone else's cli tool, i 100% do it today. are the future model's gonna be so far beyond in capability that this sounds foolish? the top models are more than enough to keep up with my own features before i can think of more... so how do they stretch further than that? A side note i keep thinking about, how impossible is a world where open source base models are collectively trained similar to a proof of work style pool, and then smaller companies simply spin off their own finishing touches or whatever based on that base model? am i thinking of thinks too simplistically? is this not a possibility?

thomasahle 7mo ago
It's hard to train models in the open. All the big players are using lots of "dodgy" training data. Like books, video, code, destinations. If you did that in the open, the lawyers would shut you down.
simonjgreen 7mo ago
Anthropic is definitely gaining ground over OpenAI in the business world. Cowork is the absolute hotness right now, and even prompted MSFT to drop their own variant yesterday
- strongpigeon 7mo ago
  Ask anybody you know that works in Big Tech. They're all pushing hard for Claude Code adoption.
- operatingthetan 7mo ago
  Codex and Gemini CLI seem 1-2 months behind Claude Code. They will catch up. This race will eventually be won by whoever can come up with the cheapest compute.

synergy20 7mo ago

well we do need at least two powerful AI companies, so they can cross checkout each other when I use them.

simonebrunozzi 7mo ago

No, they didn't raise $122B as the HN title implies. A big chunk of that $122B is a "maybe" that depends on various things that need to happen in the future. Oh, man... I can't wait to see where this is going. Might not be pretty after all.

jredwards 7mo ago
Seems like all of OpenAI's "deals" are announcement fodder with no real contract, primed to quietly fall through later.
Aurornis 7mo ago
Having large funding rounds contingent on meeting milestones is common. Always has been.
- ares623 7mo ago
  The assumption that's conveniently left out is that the milestones are realistic
- wmf 7mo ago
  Why not announce the funding after the milestones have been met?
  - apparent 7mo ago
    It's splashier this way, and is meant to shape the narrative, make other companies fear their warchest, and make hiring easier. Of course, those who are in-the-know won't be fooled, but the perception of the general public will be set in stone by the PR framing.
    - heyethan 7mo ago
      [flagged]
  - Aurornis 7mo ago

aurareturn 7mo ago

$2b/month which is $24b/year. Not as much as I expected considering they were at $20b by end of 2025.[0] They only added $4b since? Anthropic had $19b by end of February 2026 and they added $6b in February alone.[1] This means if they added another $6b in March, they're higher than OpenAI already. However, I heard that OpenAI and Anthropic report revenue in a different way. OpenAI takes 20% of revenue from Azure sales and reports revenue on that 20%. Anthropic reports all revenue, including AWS's share.[2] [0]https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-revenue-crosses-20-billion-2025-2026-01-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-... [1]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-arr-surges-19-billion-151028403.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-arr-surges-19-billi... [2]https://x.com/EthanChoi7/status/2036638459868385394 https://x.com/EthanChoi7/status/2036638459868385394

troupo 7mo ago
And that is revenue only. In the past 15 or so years most US companies (and especially startups) always talk about revenue only. Wheras only profit should matter. E.g. what good is 20 billion per year when "OpenAI is targeting roughly $600 billion in total compute spending through 2030". That is $150 billion per year?
- merlindru 7mo ago
  why should only profits matter? if i had a killer product today that i just need to sell tomorrow, wouldn't you still invest today knowing i'll probably only start to make money tomorrow (or perhaps next week)? the expectation is that they'll eventually make money. they can't raise forever. only startups are not profitable for a few years. but most companies that have existed for a long while have been profitable and since they're expected to make a LOT of money, everyone wants a piece of that future pie, pushing up the valuation and amount raised to admittedly somewhat delusional levels like here
  - Barrin92 7mo ago
    not if your product is selling two dollars for one dollar and as soon as you'll start to charge more I'll switch to one of your twenty competitors profit isn't a function of having a killer product, it's a function of having no competition

alvis 7mo ago

With $122B what are you going to build next? Spaceships?

topspin 7mo ago
All the high performance RAM, frontier node wafer capacity, flash and disk drives on Earth. Also, all the gas turbines.
- Traubenfuchs 7mo ago
  Universal paperclips. And here I am asking ChatGPT which type of onion to use dor coq au vin.
- zozbot234 7mo ago
  If they buy all the jet engines too (to turn them into gas turbines) they can be carbon neutral. More gas burned, but less jet fuel. It's a win-win.
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
bigwheels 7mo ago
Rather than advancing the state of the art, they'll use it to slow down competition by starving them of resources. In the style of a monopoly.
paxys 7mo ago
Nah, you'll get a few days worth of inference.
jillesvangurp 7mo ago
Google makes money like that in their sleep from mostly just advertising. OpenAI charges about 20$/month to tens of millions of users right now. 240/year. About 12 billion per year. That's a market that could grown to billions of people with a long tail probably not paying a lot but being served ads; and a fat high end paying a lot more than that for an ad free/premium experience. They should be able to reach billions of users. It's why Google is matching investments in AI like this entirely from the profit from ads. Going to space isn't that expensive. SpaceX bootstrapped with a lot less than that.

cmiles8 7mo ago

This all smells fishy. They didn’t “raise” $122B. Raise means someone put funds in your bank account and said send us the next quarterly report to tell us how our investment is doing. They have pieces from paper of folks saying they may put up funds or goods and services in that amount. But it’s important to remember that: 1. While they are “raising” commitments others are backing out of deals (see Disney, various data center things). Big deals announced to major fanfare are falling through. 2. They slashed capital expenditure for the future after previously boasting about all the commitments. This is turning into bonkers math of X + Y - X + Z + W - 1/2 of Y = ? On trying to keep track of what’s actually “raised / real” vs what was PR puffery that folks ran away from later. 3. Circular financing still seems to be going on. Big difference of here’s cash, have fun and various “commitments” and balance sheet games that seem to still be going on. Net net this all still looks very scary and iffy at best.

zitterbewegung 7mo ago
Are we truly arguing semantics on HN which is a news aggregator for startups and everyone truly knows what a "raise" is and it is obviously not funds in your bank account? I don't disagree with the rest of your comment and the core thesis is valid that OpenAI is very much doing circular financing. Edit: A raise comes with stipulations on what you can use the money for. I don't know if I was being too mean about responding to a parent but before you comment just google what a raise has..
- sanex 7mo ago
  Other than funds in a bank account I do not know what it would mean.
  - zitterbewegung 7mo ago
    Stipulations on what you can use the funds for.
    - iAMkenough 7mo ago

victorbuilds 7mo ago

[flagged]

nenadg 7mo ago
Don't know why so many down votes for something that's clearly just another opinion
- winrid 7mo ago
  Probably because it reads a little like an LLM and also has an emdash
  - aurareturn 7mo ago
    I’ve seen a lot of anti AI people use ChatGPT to write why AI bubble is about to pop. Ironic, isn’t it?
    - toraway 7mo ago
      > I ship code every day. I use Claude, I use GPT, I run llama locally. An "Anti AI" person...
dang 7mo ago
Please don't post generated text to HN. We ban accounts that keep doing this. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47340079 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47340079

Jaskhy 7mo ago

The title is incorrect. The $122B includes previous promises. They raised an additional $12B of promises: "The round totaled $122 billion of committed capital, up from the $110 billion figure that the company announced in February. SoftBank co-led the round alongside other investors, including Andreessen Horowitz and D. E. Shaw Ventures, OpenAI said." This IPO, if anyone underwrites it, is going to fleece retail so hard. Better make it a SPAC with the help of Chamath and Cantor & Fitzgerald.

ds2df 7mo ago

Nah this raise (commitment) is... blah. Last announcement I reckon pre-IPO and the inevitable collapse.

MinimalAction 7mo ago

I hate to read this line when academics and graduate students who work in basic and hard sciences have their funding cut. The grand funding that pays minimum wage to grad students is a burden for this society, yet for a company that took all the valuable data from sources that never got credit, raises billions of dollars. Open says the name, but closed it is by operation. Sorry for this rant, but the priorities of this world suck.

DrewADesign 7mo ago
Or all of the people that they didn’t ask, let alone compensate, that made all of the stuff they munged up for training data, so they could sell cheap knockoffs in the same markets.
danny_codes 7mo ago
We’re all feeling it. Unfortunately our country is run by a dude with dementia and a carnival of Fox News hosts. But I suspect that’ll u-turn hard when the economy implodes

shafyy 7mo ago

Looking forward to the movie about this absolute scammer Sam Altman when this is all said and done.

BloodyIron 7mo ago

Inflation is a hell of a drug.

josefritzishere 7mo ago

Thsi is the most blatant pump & dump scam I've ever seen. It's going to crash like a meteor.

wei03288 7mo ago

[dead]

ekropotin 7mo ago

Are we going to see a trillion dollar IPO?

mrkramer 7mo ago

Good luck competing with Google which has "unlimited" budget.

mbgerring 7mo ago

Each passing day the lie that markets efficiently allocate capital is further exposed

jmward01 7mo ago

There is a lot of talk about the AI bubble. I think there are comparisons to the late 90's/early 00's here with early stars rising quickly but, ultimately, falling. Since essentially everything touches the internet now it is clear that the 'internet bubble' was more of a shakeup of companies than a real over-hype of the internet. That, I think, is at play right now too with the 'AI bubble'. AI isn't going away but some of the early stars may not make it. So, the real question here is: Is OpenAI Netscape, or are they Google?

aurareturn 7mo ago
I don’t care if OpenAI is Netscape or Google. What I want to know is are we in 1994 of the AI bubble or 1999? Because even after the dotcom bubble popped, it was still much better than it was in 1994.
- jmward01 7mo ago
  I think the cycle is way faster than it used to be so even if we are in 1994, the pop is probably pretty close.
  - aurareturn 7mo ago
    Given that Nvidia's forward earnings in 2026 is 19, which is lower than the average for S&P500, what do you think a "pop" will do to Nvidia stock? Wallstreet is already pricing Nvidia to have no growth above the average S&P500 company. More importantly, do you think that a "pop" means supply of compute is suddenly more than demand?
    - eiskek 7mo ago
      What the heck are you talking about? Nvidia’s value of growth assets are already priced in. You’ve written so many posts with glaring flaws. Are you trying to come across as smart? Lmao
      - 7mo ago

outside1234 7mo ago

God help us if all of our retirement index funds are forced to buy this bankruptcy bomb.

bentt 7mo ago

Intuitively, it just doesn’t feel like OpenAI has a trillion dollar moat.

Gagarin1917 7mo ago
Alphabet is worth $3.5 Trillion. What’s their moat?
- MinimalAction 7mo ago
  Much more than Google search. Cloud, Waymo, Verily, Deepmind, stake in Claude. So many bets other than just ads.
  - Gagarin1917 7mo ago
    None of those are moats, though. None of it is “something competition cannot do.” The concept of moats just has too much weight put on it around here.

TheAlchemist 7mo ago

"Commited capital" - is this the same commited as the $500B for the Stargate project ? Not gonna lie, I hate those announcements lately. It's full bullshit mode, worse than the Dot-com bubble. Numbers don't make any sense, any more, and yet journalist don't ask any real questions...

jacquesm 7mo ago

Fortunately, I was afraid that this was another bubble. /s I wonder what the bet is here, long term that valuation is going to have to go up even further for this investment to make sense so they're clearly betting that at IPO time they'll be able to convincingly demonstrate AGI or something extremely close to it. That's a pretty risky bet, and meanwhile, whatever they come up with will be a commodity within a year. And that's besides OpenAI no longer being seen as the dominant player or the player with the best edge.

outside1234 7mo ago

Google is totally going to run this company out of money aren't they?

whalesalad 7mo ago

This is so bad. OpenAI has already singlehandedly destroyed the global flash memory market with their war chest, this will just give them more power.

dzonga 7mo ago

does Softbank run of out money i.e announce these deals but never follow up ?

iheartbiggpus 7mo ago

Would be nice to have this seperated from, i-owe-you, vs actual funding that's liquid!

rkagerer 7mo ago

Ugh, does this mean I should say goodbye to what little RAM and other hardware remains available on the consumer market?

ghm2199 7mo ago

Does anyone know if this, like the spacex/xAI stock — will list on nasdaq? And will it be part of every market cap weighted index fund like VOO(S&P) etc or just for nasdax-100 etfs? The exchanges are bending head over heels to accommodate these IPOs[1] and make our retirement index funds the exit-liquidity strategy to the thievery of pump and dump actors that buy it low and then sell high? As i understand the way thievery works is: 1. List at many multiples of market valuation on an exchange. So if you company is just 10 billion$ nasdaq and theives collude and say "can make it 100 billion..". 2. Lots of institutional investors and rich billionaires get stock options. 3. All market weighted index funds — aka all *your* low expense ratio ETF money — have to re-balance and buy them, raising their value: the exit-liquidity event 4. Rich A**** get richer by making an profit by selling higher. [1] https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/31/index-providers-shouldnt-bend-the-rules-for-elon-musk https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/31/index-providers...

danny_codes 7mo ago
It does seem likely. Iirc SpaceX wants to waive the year long holding period before their stock enters the indexes. Which to me seems like a very naked attempt at getting 401k to bag hold
HWR_14 7mo ago
They are pushing hard to be part of the nasdaq 100. You can shift your retirement funds from the nasdaq to the Dow or s&p

colwont 7mo ago

This is going to be bad

shreyssh 7mo ago

[flagged]

whatsakandr 7mo ago

I do not understand how these companies can have such high valuations when minimax m2.7 is going to be open weight.

y1n0 7mo ago

Pardon my ignorance, but how can a company that spends almost $2 for every $1 it brings in be worth anything?

cat-turner 7mo ago

Standby for tiered information. Have a question on health symptoms? You must subscribe to openAI health Have a question on math? You must subscribe to openAI math The only way they can manage this type of monetization is a lot of compute to process outputs.

blobbers 7mo ago

I get the appetite for frontier models. But why not just invest in Google. Do they really expect the return profile of OpenAI to be vastly different than Google’s Gemini?

Gagarin1917 7mo ago
I imagine they get a bigger slice of the pie with OpenAI than they do with Google, an extremely mature company who’s had investors buying in for 30 years. Alphabet’s market cap is $3.5 trillion, compared to OpenAI’s $850 billion reported here.
flowerthoughts 7mo ago
Google has little need for more money, so the price will be much higher. OpenAI being a separate entity also means Google's competitors (Microsoft, Amazon) can invest there without looking silly.
cowl 7mo ago
it's not really investing though. Amazon will provide 50B worth of compute and Nvidia will provide 30B worth of chips etc. Google doesnt need any of those. The only one that is really investing is SoftBank who is pushing for a faster IPO so they hope to make a profit on that and again Google does not offer that opportunity

imta71770 7mo ago

[dead]

convexly 7mo ago

Feels like the number is more about FOMO than fundamentals at this point.

nickphx 7mo ago

the hype machine knows no bounds. it should be illegal to publish such farcical claims when they are intended to manipulate markets...

Aeroi 7mo ago

thats a really large number

childrapst 7mo ago

[dead]

natas 7mo ago

Microsoft will buy OpenAI for $500B, rebrand it as Microsoft AI.

rhubarbtree 7mo ago
This is where they are headed. But the real price will be a lot less.
dartharva 7mo ago
With what, Azure credits?

Jaco07 7mo ago

With $122 billion at your disposal, what do you plan to build next—spaceships?

daemin 7mo ago

What if all the people currently using these "AI" services are the entire market for those services? I'm pretty sure everyone that wants to use LLMs is already doing so and already paying for the service. That would mean the only way to increase growth would be to charge more per token and to get the existing people to use more tokens. Both of which seem to be only what mature companies do when trying to squeeze the cash cow for all it's worth. It also explains why they're trying to stuff AI into everything, to keep the numbers up, and to get everyone to try and pay them money.

mxkopy 7mo ago
The market hasn’t been built out yet. There’s that post from a couple days ago where someone frontloaded the entire UX of an operating system onto an LLM, so you just tell the hardware what you want to do and it does it. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47557165 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47557165 The growth is there but it’s going to be a marathon, not a sprint. I don’t know why everyone’s in such a goddamn hurry all the time
natas 7mo ago
Give it a year or two, and apple or any other hardware will have unified memory OR AMD will have a good offering to run all that stuff locally. It won't be as good as Claude, but it'll do for 90% of the things. It will be expensive as first, just like the first mainframes, then give it another 5 years or so, and it'll be affordable.
- citizenpaul 7mo ago
  I'd argue this has already happened. The highest end mac pro is $10k and down from there. We might be returning to the appliance business model. Its just a matter of Productizing the software to plug and play light office admin work.
  - daemin 7mo ago
    People that do light office work tend to have light office machines, which are very unlikely to have powerful NPUs or even a lot of RAM. Therefore with this minimal setup is it even feasible to do any sort of LLM based work locally on those machines, or will they all be dumb terminals connecting to hosted LLMs of the big companies? This is also what I wonder, what practical applications can you actually do locally on something like a minimum spec NPU?

camillomiller 7mo ago

Almost a trillion for a company that hasn’t proved it can reach any form of profitability, all on the promise of an elusive messianic concept of machine superintelligence through probabilistic algorithms. Basically like praying cancer away. Peak magical thinking, peak America.

tsoukase 7mo ago

Fortunately, OpenAI's naming didn't cause a wave of greedy and predatory new companies, like OpenHealth, OpenEnergy, OpenCompute. The non-sexy name of their product using the originating algorithm (GPT) is punishing them. It could be anything else more attractive that would bring more customers. Because, for me, a good, inspiratory, engaging name is half the success.

slashdave 7mo ago
https://www.opencompute.org https://www.opencompute.org

etcheese 7mo ago

[dead]

_HMCB_ 7mo ago

Amazing. Reporting two mercurial numbers as if they were cornerstones.

Chyzwar 7mo ago

This leak and looking into source code gave me an impulse to try OpenCode with codex models. I am very impressed with how well it works, and the UI is beautiful.

ilaksh 7mo ago

What will happen first? The Singularity arrives, and hyper-intelligent AI causes such rapid technological change that the world becomes unrecognizable overnight? Or OpenAI pays off it's investors? Lol. I am not sure if I believe in the Singularity or not. But it's kind of the best story ever to support the game of musical chairs that is Silicon Valley investing.

deleted 7mo ago

[deleted]

jongjong 7mo ago

People won't be able to afford to leave their beds because food prices will be too high to justify the energy cost of standing up. Every joule of human energy is energy that could have been better spent to produce AI slop for other AI agents to consume.

iririririr 7mo ago

the only lesson the common man should take from these valuations: start to protest against AI conpanies being included in the sp500! unless you're a private investors in these preIPO, the whole plan is to get big enough, get forced entry into indexes, and leave early with everyone else holding the bag.

motbus3 7mo ago

I lost track when business analysts stopped analysing CEO-level commitments and outputs and performance. right now, it seems that whatever promise is taken as certain and company puffery (using the language invented by themselves) is taken lightly to tricky investor in throwing money. the whole thing did not yet crash because it seems they can still promise even more without actually delivering definite results

lazyguythugman 7mo ago

I still don't get how a non profit can become a for profit entity on a whim.

interludead 7mo ago

"Not yet profitable" doing a lot of heavy lifting here for an 852B valuation

spicymaki 7mo ago

LLMs are definitely a game changing technology, but there is just so much fake money in the market right now (circular deals, paper valuations, etc.) that I cannot take this seriously. At some point the musical chairs will stop and we will all be saying how could we let this happen? Where are the regulators (rhetorical question)?

limaoscarjuliet 7mo ago
As with every bubble, we, the people, will pay for it. There will be recession, inflation and general "one step back" to hopefully move "two steps forward" one day in the future.
- apparent 7mo ago
  I think AI will actually produce price deflation in some areas. There could be inflation based on mechanisms you describe, but it's obviously making it cheaper to make some products/services.
  - doomslayer999 7mo ago
    [dead]

1970-01-01 7mo ago

You do know that not all of these AI companies can become be trillion dollar companies, right? Easy come, easy go has no limit.

sharadov 7mo ago

I can understand why Amazon, MS and Nvidia invested - nefarious circular deals, but Softbank? I mean who the heck is giving Masayoshi Son money to invest? Behooves me!

deleted 7mo ago

[deleted]

BLACKCRAB 7mo ago

[dead]

aimemobe 7mo ago

[flagged]