adventured

4 ms·

1.
by adventured 5d ago
Well that's pretty easily avoided then. Don't travel through the US.
2.
by adventured 5d ago
99%. Humans break into three categories: originators, amplifiers, mimics. The 99% are mimics, they won't use LLMs for anything other than direct applications to existing life tasks. See: what they did with personal computers and smartp
3.
by adventured 5d ago
Over time LLMs will route around the fraud, bureaucracy, and gilded walls that have been built up around academia and the sciences. Nobody will hate AI more than the con-artists in academia pumping out fake papers by the zillions that are a
4.
by adventured 5d ago
What is my purpose? You pad the text. Oh, my god.
5.
by adventured 8d ago
It's overly automated and repetitive in its styling. Humans make odd stray adjustments to styling manually. LLMs build pages very efficiently. Unless you're very anal-retentive when building a site, there's going to be some d
6.
by adventured 8d ago
The path to vast OpenAI profitability is trivial: advertising. Monetizing several hundred million users = $100+ billion ad network. 900 million active weekly users. Silicon Valley can do ad networks extraordinarily easily. Anybody doubting
7.
by adventured 10d ago
There isn't going to be a great depression. The US is going to debase itself endlessly through spend-print-spend-print. At some point they may load up enough debt that the economy suffers a gradual heat death, in the style of Japan, wh
8.
by adventured 11d ago
I had a typical $20 Gemini plan that I just downgraded to their $5 plan (to keep access to some of the models). It had been so long since I let Gemini work on (or review) any code / design / html (anything) that I couldn't ju
9.
by adventured 12d ago
There's nothing new about any of this liability attachment. You're saying these things like they're novel. If GM does something (or fails to do something) to their vehicle that causes me to crash, they're liable for the
10.
by adventured 12d ago
Tech has become overwhelmingly negative in tone over the past 10-15 years. Nearly every single aspect is drowning in negativity. If you read the volumes of comments on AI on HN or Reddit over the past year for example, it's two things:
11.
by adventured 12d ago
It'll ultimately take a lot of time to produce a polished product that people actually want to use. We're seeing that clearly. The vibe-code-an-app-this-weekend capability is producing almost exclusively a giant pile of worthless
12.
by adventured 14d ago
As the breakneck growth slows, the multiples will compress, and the companies will pull back on spending accordingly as they watch their stocks decline and investors demand more conservative spending behavior. The Internet didn't stop
13.
by adventured 16d ago
There was a ~18 month period of time where prices went up 50-100% at stores like CVS and Walgreens. The large subscription price increases are merely matching the real inflation explosion we're seeing from the debasement of the USD due
14.
by adventured 16d ago
The cultural fervor they're groundswelling isn't a psyop. That part is already out of their control. It's an enormous mistake. Maybe once they've accomplished market capture via regulation they won't care that it&#x
15.
by adventured 18d ago
Billions of long-term users for the most important technology in human history isn't a premise of fake cash in a circular economy. You might as well pretend there's no money in search or social media. 1999. That Google, it has no
16.
by adventured 18d ago
It's not really: it means those out in front. OpenAI, Anthropic, China
17.
by adventured 18d ago
Samsung is now essentially tied for being the world's most profitable company with Nvidia ($62b operating profit last quarter, vs $63b for Nvidia). They're drowning in cash. They're doing the same thing Nvidia has been doing:
18.
by adventured 18d ago
Why hasn't Baidu taken over the world's search market? What moat does Google have that's so special in search? You need to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to scale globally in search. And you have to take the market awa
19.
by adventured 22d ago
They've fired up the same irrational hordes that brought us flat earthing, anti-vax, and 5G Covid. It's just another parade of extreme ignorance. And yes, the SF crowd is comically oblivious to what they're dealing with, ivor
20.
by adventured 22d ago
See: advertising & marketing. Or: political propaganda. Or: bumper stickers. Or political party emails / calls to action. Humans are constantly prompted by The Joneses and perceived authority figures (boss, religion, politics, peer
21.
by adventured 22d ago
Anthropic has the appearance/rep of being non-cooperative with the military industrial complex. OpenAI doesn't have that reputation. That's all.
22.
by adventured 25d ago
The US doesn't require that you lend it money, it possesses the global reserve currency. It'll take it from you via currency debasement. That's a world problem whether the world likes it or not. There is still no viable (real
23.
by adventured 25d ago
Oracle fits in Nvidia's pocket at this point: $67b sales, $22b op income. Vs of course Nvidia: $302b sales, $197b op income. Oracle was never as big of a deal as that brief market cap run implied. The herd pushed it up for no reason. T
24.
by adventured 25d ago
The US can safely reduce its deficit spending by $1 trillion and absolutely nothing big will happen. The US typically adds that much annual GDP every 16-24 months at this point. The notion that somehow the gigantic ~$31 trillion economy wil
25.
by adventured 25d ago
Actual supply hasn't done anything consequential. Extreme increases in generation + publishing are not occurring in a way that impacts the typical user. The typical TikTok user is not seeing a 10x or 100x increase in published tiktoks
26.
by adventured 25d ago
I believe you're spot on. We now have exceptionally capable local image generation models for example. Are the masses rushing to produce a thousand fold increase in the output of any sort of generative images? Not even in the slightest
27.
by adventured 25d ago
We already know the answer, it's identical to the answer for: what if everybody had UBI. Most of the population wouldn't do anything with it. They got 5g mainframes in the palm of their hands and they watch sports, play Candy Crus
28.
by adventured 1mo ago
I use Fable for writing code and some planning. I use GPT for planning/roadmaps and code review, it checks Fable. I use Gemini for stray conversations. Gemini has a better conversational style than GPT, less robotic; it hallucinates mo
29.
by adventured 1mo ago
There is drastically more power and profit in the software ultimately. Apple is in the software first, the hardware second. Everyone at Apple has been trained to understand this for decades, and Jobs pointed it out endlessly. Apple's r
30.
by adventured 1mo ago
Assume a $800 billion valuation. $100 billion ad network. $30 billion op income. 26x price to op income ratio. It's right there for them to grab, or someone else to grab. Their valuation does make sense if you believe: 1) they can reta

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