20 ms·
Statement from Jerome Powell
- jmclnx 9mo agoFor those,like me, who do not wnt to go to youtube: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/fed-jerome-powell-criminal-probe-nyt.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/fed-jerome-powell-criminal-p... https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/federal-reserve-chair-powell-says-doj-has-subpoenaed-central-bank-threatens-criminal-indictment/ar-AA1U11Hm https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/federal-reserve-chair-powe...
- zamadatix 9mo agoOfficial written statement (same as the speech given) for those who prefer https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260...
- dang 9mo ago(This comment was originally posted to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46582441 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46582441, before we merged the threads)
- davidw 9mo agoThis is... just crazy. One of those mostly boring bits of plumbing that has been left to professionals throughout the entire 50 years of my life - and they're trying to wreck it.
- SanjayMehta 9mo ago[flagged]
- spamizbad 9mo agoJerome Powell is not a Democrat.
- SanjayMehta 9mo ago[flagged]
- antoniojtorres 9mo agoPowerful
- SanjayMehta 9mo ago[flagged]
- collinfunk 9mo agoTrump appointed him. Do you put not blame on him for choosing "uniparty birds" and "shades of grifters"? Or do you live in his colon.
- mcphage 9mo ago[flagged]
- SanjayMehta 9mo ago[flagged]
- JoeJonathan 9mo agoPowell is a grifter? The guy who held the US economy together through a pandemic and subsequent inflation?
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- SpicyLemonZest 9mo agoBootlicking won't save you when Trump decides it's you he'd like to imprison next.
- SanjayMehta 9mo ago[flagged]
- SpicyLemonZest 9mo agoI'm sure a lot of Indian exporters thought they were amused outsiders too, until he randomly applied a 50% tariff to their country. Nearly everyone who imagines that Trump is a sideshow who couldn't possibly affect them is wrong.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- myko 9mo agoThe career criminal and literal traitor donald trump deserved to be investigated and deserves to be imprisoned for his many, many crimes.
- spamizbad 9mo agoIt's also for very stupid reasons: The fed dropping rates to the degree that would satisfy Donald Trump would greatly accelerate inflation which in turn would further upset voters, who would in turn blame Donald Trump (just like they did Biden before).
- Loughla 9mo agoIs it just a cynical view that enough voters can be convinced it's the other side at fault? Someone who supports trump, please let me know the logic on this. Genuinely. I'm trying to read other places about these charges but they're just so slanted that they're not really trustworthy. Is there anything to this, or is it really just to pressure the federal reserve?
- SpicyLemonZest 9mo agoI implore you to stop being credulous before it's too late. Trump supporters deeply believe, and are not shy about saying, that anyone who stops Trump from achieving his political goals should be imprisoned or murdered.
- pluralmonad 9mo agoHoly shit. If you believe even a small minority actually want that, please unplug and talk to real people in meat space.
- collinfunk 9mo agoEven if one grants that it is a small minority, aren't they still voting for someone who advocates for jailing and killing political opponents?
- gruez 9mo ago>Even if one grants that it is a small minority It is. What's more, such support is roughly the same across both parties, but both parties vastly overestimate the other side's support. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2116851119 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2116851119 https://x.com/JustinGrimmer/status/1966997411060215960 https://x.com/JustinGrimmer/status/1966997411060215960
- abrookewood 9mo agoIt's also completely in character with Trump's behaviour. He is a dictator who wants what he wants and can't abide anyone standing in his way. He wants absolute authority to do as he wishes. This extends to removing foreign heads of state so he can access their countries resources and also threatening 'allies' so he can take their territory. We're watching him systematically destroy any good will or moral authority that the USA held.
- jiggawatts 9mo agoHe was the owner and CEO of a private company — essentially a dictator without even a board or the SEC keeping him in check. For decades he hasn’t had to tolerate “checks and balances”! Nobody could say “no” and retain their jobs under him. The American public decided to put this type of person in charge. The consequences were predicted.
- callc 9mo agoIt goes back before Donald was in charge of the Trump real estate business. It started with a really really shitty father who desired a “killer” business instinct in his children (read: cruelty) above all else. Reading some of Mary Trump’s books will give some insight on the family that Donald grew up in. No love, all cruelty. Donald is just a rich kid who inherited a big business and learned nothing but cruelty from his daddy.
- senordevnyc 9mo agoI disagree, he’s more than that. Lots of people having shitty abusive parents, even lots of wealthy people. There’s something wrong with his brain.
- mrtksn 9mo ago[flagged]
- garyfirestorm 9mo ago
- dboreham 9mo agoThis week's episode of "Not the Epstein Files".
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- throw0101c 9mo ago> One of those mostly boring bits of plumbing that has been left to professionals throughout the entire 50 years of my life - and they're trying to wreck it. There is even a more boring and obscure bit of plumbing, the Treasury payment system, that they/DOGE went after last year: * https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/01/musks-doge-clashes-with-treasury-over-access-to-payment-system-report-says/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/01/musks-doge-clash... * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42904200 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42904200 * https://hn.algolia.com/?q=treasury+payment+system https://hn.algolia.com/?q=treasury+payment+system Every knee must (forced to) bend.
- swagmoney1606 9mo agoThere hasn't been a single point in my shorter life so far where things have been this out of control. The fed is supposed to be as non-political as possible. I know politics and the economy are intertwined, but tell me how this won't end up a disaster please. How do we get back to the USA we had even 10 years ago?
- OutOfHere 9mo ago[flagged]
- oenton 9mo agoThis is the second or third comment I’ve seen online that says this. I’m curious how do you conclude the fed has “never been non-political?” Is this just a matter of using the right terminology? The term “non-political” (also “independent”) isn’t concerned with each board member’s individual party affiliation, or how they vote in elections. It just means that management of the fed and importantly its monetary policy I.e. the federal rate, be guided by data; not influenced by short term goals of politicians and especially not influenced by the President or his administration. (Edit) all that to say, maybe that’s what you meant by “never at an individual level”?
- OutOfHere 9mo agoI have looked at individual votes for far too many years, and they often are politically aligned as per the respective state of the voter. This is not a coincidence, and it's not something to overlook. If the votes were guided by data alone, this pattern would not exist, but it does.
- baby_souffle 9mo ago> but tell me how this won't end up a disaster please. Unless you want to split hairs and argue that "disaster" is really only in the middle of the spectrum of plausible outcomes... then there is no outcome here that isn't a disaster. At *best* this only moderately raises inflation in the short-term and somehow the rest of the world isn't shaken too much and the USD somehow still remains a reserve currency. I'm in the "USD looses reserve currency status in 6-48 months" camp but there are some reasonable arguments against this.
- Loughla 9mo agoHoly shit. So our monetary policy will be just set at the arbitrary whims of the president if this new scheme works. Why does all of this feel like it's just sliding completely out of hand? Am I just being a doomer?
- nemomarx 9mo agoLots of respected limits and lines on government power are just being casually broken, so I don't think you're wrong. Whatever's going to happen next it probably won't have the stability of the past.
- toomuchtodo 9mo agoBecause it is, you are not. Checks and balances are at their limits (judicial branch), or non existent (Congress).
- dc396 9mo agohttps://rall.com/2026/01/08/checks-and-balances-are-dead https://rall.com/2026/01/08/checks-and-balances-are-dead
- davidw 9mo agoI find myself seeking out non-doomer people to read, since the doom and gloom doesn't really help, it's just demotivating. "Look for the helpers" and all that. This outlet has some good things from time to time, like https://www.liberalcurrents.com/we-are-going-to-win/ https://www.liberalcurrents.com/we-are-going-to-win/ That said, yeah this is really bad.
- Herring 9mo agoNot sure about that article. In the short term maybe you might get through this round, but the long term really doesn’t look good. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/how-stop-minority-rule-doom-loop/618536/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/how-stop-m... I’m applying to jobs in Europe.
- 9mo ago
- Aurornis 9mo agoTerrible. Trump was even the person who nominated Powell in 2017, and now he’s being squeezed for doing the job of Federal Reserve Chair instead of bending to demands.
- rib3ye 9mo agoUnprecedented times call for unlikely youtube heroes.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- Dusseldorf 9mo agoHe certainly doesn't beat around the bush here. Very nice too see someone of his stature stand up and call out these shenanigans for what they are.
- scoofy 9mo agoHis term ends on May 15, 2026, so it's almost pointless to file these charges now. I see what's happening now as game-theory signaling, not as a real threat to Powell. I would suggest that this action is better seen as a latent threat to the next Fed chairman to let them know that they will either enact Trumps desired Fed policies or they will be prosecuted for anything that the administration can manufacture. It's also important to remember that Powell is not the only Federal Reserve Board of Governors to have very odd accusations of wrongdoing and investigations launched. He's also done this with Lisa Cook. It seems pretty blatant at this point what's really happening.
- JumpCrisscross 9mo ago> His term ends on May 15, 2026, so it's almost pointless to file these charges now His term as chairman ends in May. He remains on the Board of Governors after that. Following this fight, he may remain the most prominet voice despite losing the chairmanship.
- prodigycorp 9mo agoMany times I've disagreed with Powell, but major props for this statement.
- toomuchtodo 9mo agoCourage in short supply, refreshing to see it flexed.
- abrookewood 9mo agoIt's honestly depressing how little push back there seems to be.
- davidw 9mo agoI hope that some heads of universities, CEO's and people running important journalism outfits are looking at this and feeling a deep sense of shame.
- ptero 9mo agoI came in to say the same thing -- major, major respect to Powell. I am not a big fan of his earlier policies (or of Greenspan's and anyone after him for that matter). His "unlearn the importance of M2" did not age well. He made the tail end of the ZIRP more painful than it needed to be. But those were honest mistakes from a public servant who did his best and believed in what he is doing. And standing up for what he believes is right, against this insanity from the president is the gold standard of what we need from public servants. My 2c.
- JumpinJack_Cash 9mo ago[flagged]
- pizlonator 9mo agoYes. His statement is firm and well articulated. I have nothing bad to say about the man right now
- don_neufeld 9mo agoEconomists: The interest rate on US Treasuries is often used as a benchmark for the “risk free rate” Trump: Hold my beer.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- JKCalhoun 9mo agoWild. Some kind of fucking banana republic.
- AnimalMuppet 9mo ago"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President." Thank you, Mr. Powell. We really want interest rates set to serve the people, not the whims of the President.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- ralph84 9mo ago[flagged]
- ohyoutravel 9mo agoThis is an exceptionally poor take on the matter.
- hrimfaxi 9mo agoYou had a comment to explain the poor take and instead do the equivalent of point and laugh. Can you help but wonder as onlookers question what your point might have been? People undoubtedly think this way, and to discount wholesale their line of thinking without engagement does not win hearts and minds.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- cconroy 9mo agowhy? asset holders in this country have a free fed put, wage earners get smashed in the face. you can make a solid case this institution is more harmful and free banking is much better for wealth equality.
- collinfunk 9mo agoIt seems like they learned a lot from the Letitia James and James Comey cases, which are going great (not in the way they intended).
- voidfunc 9mo agoExciting two weeks to start the year!
- jb1991 9mo agoI don’t think “exciting” is the right word.
- voidfunc 9mo agoWhere's your sense of adventure?
- jb1991 9mo agoThere is a time for adventure, and this is not it.
- AnimalMuppet 9mo ago"And did you find adventure?" "No. Neither does anyone else. Adventures happen to other people. When it happens to you, it just looks like trouble." - The Ballad Of Sir Dinadan, by Gerald Morris, quoted from memory
- throwaway_2494 9mo agoYou know this part of the problem! Politics is now consumed as entertainment, and ask any writer of books or screenplays and they will tell you _conflict_ makes for good entertainment. Politics should be _boring_. The fact that we demand to be entertained by our political system is a big part of the problem.
- JumpinJack_Cash 9mo agoFar too many people decide to occupy the us vs. them part of their brain with National politics as opposed to sports. Both are basically useless as it relates to your personal quality of life but at least with the latter you can see nice geometric combinations between players on a pitch and some incredible athleticism in between
- retrocog 9mo agoIts crazy how you can see where things are heading and still be surprised when they arrive there.
- whatever1 9mo agoEveryone calling it out was named a doomer. Well doom is here. Congrats.
- retrocog 9mo agoGradually (last 3 decades) ==> Suddenly (we are here)
- LorenPechtel 9mo agoFundamentally, people don't like situations with no good answer. I see it again and again, present a problem with no good answer and most people will resort to the answer that aligns with their political leanings even when faced with clear evidence they are wrong. Look how quickly big business rolled over for The Felon--because they saw what mot people have been denying since the election.
- naijaboiler 9mo agobig business will always act in the interest of big business. Only a stupid business man will confront the full-might of the executive branch of the federal government heads on, particularly when the President is showing that he is willing to use that power against anybody
- shimman 9mo agoBig business will always side with the oppressors, it's like we learned nothing from history about colonialism, imperialism, or the history of european fascism. I mean FFS it was corporations that financed Mussolini. As you said they don't care, they just want to make money.
- throw0101c 9mo ago
- shrubble 9mo agoI’m of the opinion from the old Yiddish proverb: “when the cat and dog are fighting, the mouse is safe”. If the admin is fighting with the Federal Reserve, it means they are not focused on figuring out how to further screw us over…
- Aurornis 9mo agoThey have had no problem screwing people over on multiple fronts at the same time. This is wishful thinking. > If the admin is fighting with the Federal Reserve, it means they are not focused on figuring out how to further screw us over… Messing with interest rates for short term political gain would screw us over.
- refulgentis 9mo agoPuerile and uninformative, unfortunately. I respect that each of us has their world view, but if the last decade has shown anything at all, it is that when you are in the public square, you are asking for interlocution, not for escapism to be indulged. And the best thing is to do as you implicitly ask, and interlocute.
- Philpax 9mo agoI don't think a fight with the Federal Reserve will stop ICE from murdering civilians.
- et-al 9mo agoWhat's a pleb supposed to do now? Convert every paycheck to BTC, gold, or EUR?
- rvz 9mo agoYou might as well for the next 3 years.
- closingreunion 9mo agoToilet paper and ammunition.
- ProllyInfamous 9mo agoThe most-unamerican thing you can do right now is HOLD bitcoin/gold/silver. If you still want fiat — and they're available — Swiss Francs are deflating least-quickly. Otherwise, as a fellow pleb, my best advice is to get enough bullets for occassional hunting (and other tax-free methods of living) and protection. If you're of a draftable age/gender, I'd either get extremely fit or extremely disabled. If you're a lard-ass, I'd get to a state where you can live without medicines. —fellow blue collar american
- garbawarb 9mo agoI assume there are some stocks that would benefit this? Maybe foreign stocks if the dollar declines?
- brcmthrowaway 9mo agoDoes anyone have a steelman argument for this?
- Aurornis 9mo agoDo you think that criminal prosecution for Jerome Powell for maybe doing something wrong with some building renovations under timing that just happens to coincide with the President’s personal and public vendetta against this person is worth steelmanning? At some point it stops being steelmanning and starts becoming an invitation for some propaganda to distract from the obvious.
- zamadatix 9mo agoThe more obvious something seems the more valuable steelmanning becomes, precisely because if the only steelman arguments you get (if any) are propaganda at best (instead of reasons you just hadn't considered) then you can be that much more confident your outrage is based in reason rather than feelings. My guess is there won't be many coming up with steelman arguments for this one though anyways. Inviting propaganda is good, let the obviously weak arguments come front and center to be logically considered and ridiculed rather than put in small private group chats where they seem to grow and grow. This only works, in any way, if people stop saying things aren't worth having consideration about because it's obvious to them.
- Aurornis 9mo agoI understand the theory of steelmanning, but in cases like this it's just an high-brow version of the "both sides" style of journalism where you pretend like both sides are similarly plausible and deserve equal consideration. At the extremes, the steelmanning can turn into a game of giving the other side more consideration. > Inviting propaganda is good, let the obviously weak arguments come front and center to be logically considered and ridiculed That's literally what I'm doing: Ridiculing the obviously weak arguments. And do you know what's happening? My ridicule and dismissiveness are being talked down, while you invite someone to "steelman" the argument instead. This pattern happens over and over again in spaces where steelmanning is held up as virtuous: It's supposed to be a tool for bringing weak arguments into the light so they can be dismissed, yet the people dismissing are told to shush so we can soak up the propaganda from the other side.
- neom 9mo agoSo I'm sitting here as a Canadian wondering what the American people are going to do? I understand a lot of what the President of The United States says - I even agree with some of it, the problem is I don't feel like we're engaging with the American people anymore. I really wonder where you guys are headed and what it means for the rest of us, I spent 15 years in the states, built a public company there, I really like the Americans, but I don't want annexation. I wonder where you guys are headed.
- Frost1x 9mo agoComplain to our representatives who will do absolutely nothing because the system is ripe for abuse and we’ve put people who actively want to abuse and exploit it into office. I keep telling everyone and have been for a year, it’s not just our problem, due to global US positioning it’s now a world problem. Just ask Venezuela. Regardless of what you think about the end result the ends did not justify the means. I for one will be collecting my (completely legal) hunting rifles and weapons I’ve had in storage since I was a kid, have them professionally serviced and grab some ammunition, on the terrible case I need to defend myself which I thought I’d never ever have to consider and I’d just sell them some day. But alas we have a lot of really really stupid as well as downright toxic voters in this country.
- jiggawatts 9mo agoYou’re all tooling up to defend against your neighbours instead of the people causing the political instability. The outcome of this is all too predictable.
- renegade-otter 9mo agoAmerica has enough power to help someone else. No one has the power to save America from itself. The cavalry is not coming, and this fire is going to take its course. One day, maybe we will rebuild from scratch.
- mandeepj 9mo ago> No one has the power to save America from itself. Wrong!! Please don’t say that! We all have power inside the US. Congress had the opportunity in 2021 to correct the wrong, but Republicans kowtowed and they are still doing so. That was the easy way. Now for the hard way, American people will have to do something about it. Edit: Grammar
- hazard 9mo agoAnd of course equity futures immediately dropped on the news
- scottarthur 9mo agoYep, we’ll see how the free market responds. Wonder if it will be a TACO Tuesday (or even Monday)
- dashundchen 9mo agoGuarantee there are dozens if not more in the admin insider trading like they have on so many announcements. Market manipulation right out in the open. The slimiest swampiest criminals, they need to be put on trial.
- rvz 9mo agoSo this is the bar for the next country to surpass the US as the world's economic super-power, if this continues it's most likely going to be China to surpass the US. An opportunity for the EU to stop its bureaucracy and cleanup its act. If it cannot convince anyone that they are next, then one can argue that democracy is completely finished. If this nonsense continues it will be the UAE + Saudi Arabia + China, cutting off the west and that's that.
- AnimalMuppet 9mo agoIf that's the bar, well, China is not a sterling example of central bank independence and the rule of law either.
- padjo 9mo ago> stop its bureaucracy and cleanup its act What does that mean? Do you have any idea what the EU is?
- rr808 9mo ago[flagged]
- rvz 9mo ago[flagged]
- hrimfaxi 9mo agoOne must ask, to whose benefit? On what side are they wagering?
- tclancy 9mo agoYou’re assuming they’re clever instead of mean and stupid.
- hrimfaxi 9mo agoFuck. This blew my thinking wide open. Thank you but damn you but thanks.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- blurbleblurble 9mo agoWhy not all three?
- blurbleblurble 9mo agoPeople with capital are always ready to buy the dip
- AgentOrange1234 9mo agoWow that's bold.
- jacquesm 9mo agoIt is. It is also rare and late. Possibly too late. But let's hope it is not and that this will inspire some other people to draw lines in the sand.
- closingreunion 9mo agoThe titanic amount of generational neglect that has allowed even a fraction of voters to look at Trump for more than a second and find him qualified for any public office is truly fantastic. This is one of the clear examples that Trump is seeing Putin's Russia as a model for his vision for the USA.
- Waterluvian 9mo agoRemember early in his first term when he tested waters but the governmental system pushed back and kept him in check? It feels like an out of body experience to look at this and contemplate how much he’s changed about how the U.S. government conducts itself.
- jayd16 9mo agoHe was rewarded with full control of every branch of government. What did we expect?
- colejhudson 9mo agoThrough what mechanism is he controlling the other branches of government?
- galleywest200 9mo agoThe GOP in Congress abdicating its role and deferring to the executive, as well as SCOTUS continually using the “shadow docket” to rule in his favor with little to no explanation provided.
- cosmicgadget 9mo agoCongress: anyone falling out of line will lose his support in midterms. Judiciary: appointments and ideological alignment with some of the Supreme Court. Thomas and Alito are fully controlled, Kavanaugh just loves a powerful executive, the rest aren't controlled but often in agreement. Then there's his use of executive power to punish his adversaries, e.g. Perkins Coie.
- zaptheimpaler 9mo agoThe question is through what mechanism are other branches curtailing his power? It seems to be limited to strongly worded letters and speeches, indignant comments and scathing news reports but nothing real.
- vannevar 9mo ago
- mrstackdump 9mo ago[flagged]
- unethical_ban 9mo agoThat's a conspiracy I've yet to hear.
- mrstackdump 9mo agoHe says it himself! His role its to induce "healthy" unemployment.
- jacquesm 9mo agoAs opposed to unhealthy unemployment which means the system collapses. Zero unemployment is not going to happen in any normally functioning society, though in the former USSR it existed. That included a lot of busywork (changing traffic lights, for instance, and requiring three cashiers to buy a bread).
- unethical_ban 9mo agoBut that's not a conspiracy, that's built into the system. 2% unemployment is a number I remember from high school economics.
- philips 9mo agoI have heard shadows of this theory a bit from Jon Stewart over the years. https://youtu.be/tU3rGFyN5uQ?si=0387L1blOdW2Ttpe https://youtu.be/tU3rGFyN5uQ?si=0387L1blOdW2Ttpe
- colejhudson 9mo agoWithout the Fed, how would you advise the nation deal with events like the Great Depression, the Great Recession, or COVID? Would you disagree that the Feds actions shortened these events and thus helped the public in the process?
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- laidoffamazon 9mo agoI’m aghast but numb to this now. The biggest question for me now is how the usual defenders of this lawless administration will try to defend this or both sides it.
- luxuryballs 9mo agoThe defense is that the status quo has become archaic and self-serving instead of serving the public so the current operations people doing some house cleaning and tossing a few rooms to see what’s going on in there is overdue, changes need to happen and power structures need to be shaken out a bit to make sure they are not getting in the way of the people they were created to act on behalf of, and scatter the ones who are “helping themselves” to the public coffers. This just needs to happen every across all government, it’s like brushing your teeth to kick out the bacteria, but each individual institution needs a different kind of “floss” depending on the nature of the ways they have strayed from their original purposes.
- __loam 9mo agoIt's a funny defense coming from the most corrupt administration since Nixon
- pstuart 9mo agoNixon looks good in comparison -- EPA, OSHA, Clean Air Act, etc. He'd be called a communist by MAGA.
- luxuryballs 9mo agothere’s just a lot of partisan media outlets that are trying to make it look this way because it’s the corruption paying to try and stop it so they can keep power
- luxuryballs 9mo agoI don’t see evidence of corruption all I see is a system already heavily steeped in corruption and regulatory capture that is using fake and ironic anti-establishment narratives to try and keep it.
- YY438723874623 9mo agoAmerica has reached the inter-departmental warfare stage of failed states it seems. As an appreciator of all sorts of banana republics, kleptocracy and military juntas, this is a very familiar pattern of behavior.
- avierax 9mo agoCouldn't disagree more. Failed states normally have a single department (the military, often) dictating without opposition what other departments should do. Here we see a functioning system, the President presses, the Fed disagree and push back. The President weaponizes the judicial, yes, but it'll be a long shot. Nothing here smells to a failed state.
- olalonde 9mo agoAs a side note, is there a compelling reason why interest rates aren't set algorithmically? I assume human intuition isn't really a factor in setting them. This would eliminate concerns about political motivation.
- martinald 9mo agoBut who sets the algorithm? Whichever department of branch of govt was in charge of that would become have the enormous power, and political motivation would then fall to that. Equally the same for data that goes into the algorithm - if you can control that you control interest rates.
- olalonde 9mo agoAgreed, but we're already living that reality. Moving to an algorithmic approach provides a layer of transparency that makes manipulation easier to detect.
- hrimfaxi 9mo agoWould that make it easier or more difficult to guide, I wonder?
- lamontcg 9mo agoEconomic models are complex and far from perfect, and we're still waiting for Hari Seldon's psychohistory models to be created to tie together macroeconomics and macropsychology.
- olalonde 9mo agoAre you saying that human intuition does play a role? I assumed it was all pretty mathematic and deterministic already.
- mandeepj 9mo ago> is there a compelling reason why interest rates aren't set algorithmically? Can’t believe you are saying that!! Then anyone can manipulate it like they manipulate stocks by writing hit pieces one day and gushing articles a few days after,
- jb1991 9mo agoVenezuela, Greenland, and this. Anyone notice how these extreme events all happened around the same time of the Epstein files getting released with highly publicized questions about all the redactions? It certainly seems like a distraction game.
- blurbleblurble 9mo agoNot to mention what's happening in Minnesota
- jb1991 9mo agoThe difference is that the actions and rhetoric around Venezuela and Greenland and the Fed reserve are direct actions by Trump. The thing in Minnesota is a tragedy but I don’t think he told anyone to go out and kill somebody on the street.
- blurbleblurble 9mo agoI ask you to look deeper into what's happening there and reconsider your stance. US citizens are being beaten up and harassed, as are non-citizens. ICE officers are using their cars to ram observers and then arresting them violently. They arrested a teenaged clerk at target and then threw him out of a vehicle onto the street upon realizing he was a citizen. A woman was filmed being taken into a portapotty in handcuffs by a federal agent. The violence is quite clearly systematic. Watch the videos.
- jb1991 9mo agoSure but all of that predates the Epstein releases and reactions, which is what this thread is referring to.
- blurbleblurble 9mo agoThe stuff I mentioned, the clear escalation, happened over the last few days, starting on the 7th. Along with the USDA suddenly cutting off all funds to Minnesota (which includes SNAP benefits for > 100k people). I don't see how this is any different.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- jshchnz 9mo agothis is a big deal, markets gonna tank tomorrow morning... and then realize AI is still a thing and recover
- garbawarb 9mo agoOr realize it means interest rates are sure to be dropping.
- jgalt212 9mo agoand remind themselves there is way too much cash sloshing about for a broad-based and lasting market retreat. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
- ajross 9mo agoAI is a bubble; well, the stock market as a whole is, being led by an AI boom. At the end of a bubble (and it's not clear if we're there yet) markets find ways to self-finance. A crash means not just that the value is lower, but that the leveraged bets are now due, and those have to be paid by selling more. When it crashes (and it's not clear when that will be), it will crash back to a cash-value baseline. And, sigh, it's not clear where that is. But it won't magically start going back up. The cyclic reinvestment engine needs to be reinvented every time.
- ponkywonku 9mo ago[flagged]
- tclancy 9mo agoThousands of days for you to join in the past but you did today.
- quadragenarian 9mo agoI love how you put that! Suspicious is too gentle of a word.
- senectus1 9mo agolots of reasons, asbestos being one of them.
- toomuchtodo 9mo ago[deleted] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-renovation-budget-ballooned-2-090300688.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-renovation-budget-balloon... https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/building-project-faqs.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/building-project-faqs.ht...
- zamadatix 9mo agoThe point is better (and stands on its own) without treading into personal attacks. Don't let a throwaway account bait you into turning it into a battle of name calling instead of sticking to readily available facts as you link at the end, it's what they often want and if they were sincere it severely diminishes the chances they'll believe your links were in good faith anyways.
- toomuchtodo 9mo agoFacts matter, as does telling people it is on them to understand them. Otherwise, we will spin in perpetuity refuting people who are not discussing in good faith. I stand by my assertions. I do not believe it is impolite to call out a potential lack of education, or ignoring of facts and reality. Without shared facts and reality, discussion and debate is impossible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law
- jordanscales 9mo agoThreats like the ones Powell's receiving would be the end of any other presidency. Why tech elites continue to align themselves with this clownshow will be a source of incredible shame that I'll hold onto forever.
- wefergrtgwrergf 9mo ago[dead]
- option 9mo agoThe tech CEOs will have to do a whole lot of explaining, relocating and, perhaps, other things once this clown show is gone after 2028
- afavour 9mo agoI really wish that were true but they won’t. They’ll just keep on keeping on.
- kettlecorn 9mo agoI think a lot of largest tech companies feel that they'll face retribution from the current administration for not being supportive enough but would not from future admins. For many of the smaller players I think there's unfortunately a lot of people who realized there's significant money to be made in grifting. Many of the largest crypto proponents have pivoted into endeavors, whether crypto or otherwise, that profit off of being rewarded for being part of the 'correct' tribe.
- pixelatedindex 9mo ago> I think a lot of largest tech companies feel that they'll face retribution from the current administration for not being supportive enough but would not from future admins. The Democrats should play hardball but the geriatrics can barely take a swing.
- 9mo ago
- igonvalue 9mo agoHere's Trump and Powell publicly disagreeing about these exact Fed renovation costs in July 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvYljCN970s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvYljCN970s Powell corrects him in real-time. Worth watching given today's statement.
- tolerance 9mo agoFor people who don’t know what this is about and why everyone else is concerned…me neither. 2025-10-03 "You Decide: What Does the Fed’s Rate Cut Mean?”: <https://cals.ncsu.edu/news/you-decide-what-does-the-feds-rate-cut-mean-2/ https://cals.ncsu.edu/news/you-decide-what-does-the-feds-rat...> 2025-12-10 “A divided Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for a 3rd straight time”: <https://alaskapublic.org/news/national/2025-12-10/a-divided-federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-for-a-3rd-straight-time https://alaskapublic.org/news/national/2025-12-10/a-divided-...> "‘Silent Dissents’ Reveal Growing Fed Resistance to Powell’s Cuts”: <https://archive.is/JDlB0#selection-1235.0-1235.64 https://archive.is/JDlB0#selection-1235.0-1235.64> 2025-12-30 "Fed Minutes Reveal Split on Interest Rates Headed Into 2026”: <https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/articles/fed-minutes-reveal-split-on-interest-rates-headed-into-2026 https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/articles/fed...> "Deep Divide Inside Fed Raises Questions About Timing of Further Rate Cuts”: <https://archive.is/7XdPo https://archive.is/7XdPo> "Trump says he will 'probably' sue Fed's Powell”: <https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-says-he-will-probably-sue-feds-powell/3784378 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-says-he-will-probabl...> HTH
- derangedHorse 9mo agoI dislike the existence of the Fed, but I dislike the idea of the executive branch being in control of monetary policy even more. I'll be tuning in to see how the case progresses.
- pixelatedindex 9mo agoDo you have an alternative to the Fed? Likes and dislikes has nothing to do with it. Or let me ask you another way — why do you dislike the Fed?
- jgalt212 9mo agoI dislike that the Fed operates as if the happiness of the investor class is their number one priority.
- pixelatedindex 9mo ago> if the happiness of the investor class is their number one priority The investor class has capital, and America is capitalist. I’m not the biggest fan either but we gotta acknowledge the reality we live in.
- cman1444 9mo agoOf the dual mandate, which would you say prioritizes the investor class, and how would you approach it differently?
- jgalt212 9mo ago> promote maximum employment and price stability (low, stable inflation, targeting 2%) The dual mandate says nothing about asset prices. The only prices it mentions are those involved in CPI calcs.
- lovich 9mo agoYou asked about which piece "of the dual mandate", but the OP said "operates as" which I am going to reply to. Does the Fed can any data from labor sources or unions? I am asking in honest because the few reports from them that I have looked into(mostly around unemployment) all seem to be polls solely sourced from investor class assets like companies. If they are only sourcing from one biased source for their data, they wouldn't have to have a bad mandate or manipulate it, to operate like it was for the benefit of the data source, right?
- arminiusreturns 9mo agoIf you are a complete normie, turn back now, it's gonna get conspiratorial. Otherwise, read on for some insights. First, one must understand that the Federal Reserve was the main trojan horse vehicle for the European banking families into America. Read any number of good books, starting with the latest edition of G. Edward Griffins "The Creature from Jekyll Island". But all that is mostly known already to those who have payed attention and done the reading... so whats next? My conclusion is that America is being setup, in multiple ways (fall guy for global empire, etc), but one major setup that is going on right now is a twofer: 1) Jack up the US economy at any time by raising rates and unraveling the ponzi scheme and 2) If you do 1), you have the perfect excuse to try to implement some CBDC-esque new system, but this time with much more surveillance tech, for example unified ledgers that merge digital identity with financial identity, with ESG and social credit style added on. Read Whitney Webb for more on the structures being put in place for this. So what is happening is that Trump knows the people that control the Fed, for whom the Fed chair is a mere mouthpiece, really want to suddenly and unexpectedly hike rates and soon, but Trump doesn't want it to happen under his last term, so he has been doing major backroom maneuvering to influence the Fed every time a rate-change date is coming up. Essentially he wants to kick the can to the next POTUS, but since the Fed is technically independent, it really can do whatever it wants, all he can do is fire after the fact. My guess is they will drop it on him late term, a perfect excuse to usher in the political pendulum swing of the hegelian game they play with us. To me, that this backroom maneuvering is becoming more public tells me they really want to do the sudden rate hike. Want a decent intro to the real fed? Try this video from the great James Corbett: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IJeemTQ7Vk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IJeemTQ7Vk
- arghandugh 9mo ago[flagged]
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- hash872 9mo agoFrom an institutional engineering POV (warning- I am a grouchy old former political scientist), it would be interesting to come up with institutional solutions for some of the problems America is facing right now. Specifically I think I'd remove the Attorney General role from the President's authority and give it to Senate, to nominate & confirm exclusively. Let's say 51 votes to confirm and 55 votes to impeach. Even among presidential systems, the US cabinet is unusually presidential-centric. I'm not a big LatAm expert, but I think they typically separate the public prosecutor from the president's nomination capacity. Of course I would strongly prefer to not be a presidential system at all. But if we're discussing post-Trump constitutional reforms that could plausibly pass, I think removing the Attorney General/DOJ from the president's purview and also placing some checks on the pardon power seem doable
- nabbed 9mo ago>Of course I would strongly prefer to not be a presidential system at all. Having grown up in the US and having blinders on, I always thought all those parliamentary systems seemed unstable and sometimes comical. But now I see the value in it. Once a leader has demonstrated he is not up to the task, has grown out-of-touch, or has descended into madness, he can be replaced by his party, and if that didn't happen, a no-confidence vote could trigger an election. No guarantee either of those things would happen, but the option exists. The fixed four-year term idea now seems artificial and inflexible. I suspect the current US leader and maybe even the previous US leader (maybe in his 4th year) would have suddenly found himself a back-bencher.
- Marsymars 9mo ago> Having grown up in the US and having blinders on, I always thought all those parliamentary systems seemed unstable and sometimes comical. There are so many different variables between countries, and plain luck, that it's tough to extrapolate too much, but this just jumped out a bit for me as a Canadian - the average Canadian PM term has historically been marginally longer than the average American Presidential time in office.
- rsynnott 9mo ago
- rootsudo 9mo ago[flagged]
- epolanski 9mo agoThere are other boards for this nonsense like wsb.
- JumpinJack_Cash 9mo agoI am surprised by the negative comments, the low interest rates = better thesis has always been somewhat popular on HN , now just because Trump is saying it (and operating to get there) it becomes an issue or something not to be aligned with. There are countless comments and discussions on this board about how: 1) interest rates should be zero, 2) interest rates being non-zero create a misallocation of capital where there is a return on an investment without any ingenuity or creation behind 3) Banks are too risk averse to lending and their risk averse behavior is due to the risk free rate they enjoy when they park money at the Fed and when they buy T-bills No matter how little ingenuity or creation is required to keep afloat a zombie company or a dubious startup, for sure it's a notch higher than what happens when that money is parked at the Fed or invested in t-bills...
- layer8 9mo agoEven if one disagrees with Fed policy, the way Trump is having the DoJ criminally prosecute Powell under unrelated pretexts is disgraceful and undermines the Fed’s independence.
- bakies 9mo agothe fed's goal is zero interest rate, it's not that people are negative because "tRuMp SaId So" it's because he's trying to influence the fed's decision with criminal prosecution of the chair and not through his economic policy. His policy is ass and that's why the fed can't get back to their ZIRP goal
- JumpinJack_Cash 9mo agoThe rate should be zero regardless of any other consideration. The dismantling of the fed would be in order
- presto8 9mo agoThe Fed's interest rate goal (which is half of their dual mandate) is 2%.
- 9mo ago
- tds_is_real 9mo ago[flagged]
- ibero 9mo agotree, meet the forest.
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- layer8 9mo agoTrump has partly himself to blame here. From https://fortune.com/2025/07/23/federal-reserve-renovation-cost-explained/ https://fortune.com/2025/07/23/federal-reserve-renovation-co...: “Trump appointees to the US Commission of Fine Arts, however, required the project use more white marble to align with a proposed presidential mandate from the president that all new federal buildings be neoclassical in style. This luxury white marble comes from Georgia and has been used extensively in the construction of national landmarks including the U.S. Capitol. Aside from Georgia marble, the materials used throughout the Fed’s renovation are required to be sourced domestically. “And to match the original marble facades and detailed interiors, the Fed is required to use specialized processes more costly than those allowed in Washington buildings without historical significance or not on the National Mall.”
- tds_is_real 9mo ago[flagged]
- m0llusk 9mo agoBuilding is much cheaper than renovation which is much cheaper than preservation. Ambitious project goals preserving unique historical assets make this project inherently expensive. From https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/building-project-faqs.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/building-project-faqs.ht... which includes much more detail. > ... complete overhaul and modernization that preserves two historic buildings that have not been comprehensively renovated since their construction in the 1930s ...
- cosmicgadget 9mo agoDefinitely not his job and the renovation plans aren't a state secret.
- ball_of_lint 9mo agoPowell for president please
- __MatrixMan__ 9mo agoNobody who takes money as seriously as either party to this case should be president. Leaders should be focused on outcomes not abstractions.
- cosmicgadget 9mo agoHe printed way too hard when Trump asked him to in '20.
- fib11235 9mo agoMy understanding is the United States has one of the strongest post-pandemic recoveries, the printing was definitely a factor.
- cosmicgadget 9mo agoI'm not arguing against QE I am saying there was too much of it and we could have had recovered just fine without the severe inflation that landed us in the current predicament.
- estearum 9mo agoLower inflation and higher growth than every peer nation? The Fed absolutely crushed it. Totally unambiguous.
- cosmicgadget 9mo agoHere are some ambiguous things: 1. Inflation 2. Comparing peer economies 3. Counterfactual timelines
- 9mo ago
- trashface 9mo agoI wonder if the fed's lawyers advise him on this or if he has to use his own lawyers
- tds_is_real 9mo ago[flagged]
- bigyabai 9mo agoWho appointed Powell?
- afavour 9mo agoThey literally have an entire web site dedicated to this that explains the reasons for the cost increase: https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/building-project-faqs.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/building-project-faqs.ht... Could it have been cheaper? Possibly. But let’s be real here. It’s blatant intimidation.
- cal_dent 9mo agoThe US drift into Adam Curtis' broad thesis in hypernormalisation(a) continues apace I see. Great to see J Pow putting up a fight but I fear this is all going one way. (a) >We live in a world where the powerful deceive us. We know they lie. They know we know they lie. They don't care. We say we care but do nothing.
- mmooss 9mo ago> I fear this is all going one way That belief isn't the consequence of the situation, but the cause. There is ample ability to change events, but people must believe they can act and act together, as they have for centuries of democracy and for all human history. They do it in Iran. The Republicans and MAGA movement have made changes that would have been unbelievable ten years ago.
- jordanpg 9mo agoStated differently, if things really are so bad (and I would be the first to agree that things are pretty bad), then why are so many comfortable people (like me) not out on the street every day? There are a lot of reasons for that, of course, but the bottom line is that when things get bad enough -- much worse than they are today -- then more people will take to the street, along with whatever sacrifice that entails. We're just not there yet, because for many, there is far too much to lose.
- Barrin92 9mo ago>then why are so many comfortable people (like me) not out on the street every day? because a lot of people have a kind of built-in main character syndrome and believe they're the protagonists of the world and things can't really go bad. They haven't internalized that there isn't some god behind the curtain that saves them. That's how it goes in every country that ends up in the dirt, they all thought they were special, they all thought "surely we're not there yet" and you can pick their remains out of the rubble. relevant piece from a few years ago: https://indi.ca/i-lived-through-collapse-america-is-already-there/ https://indi.ca/i-lived-through-collapse-america-is-already-...
- epolanski 9mo agoOne of the very few lonely voices. It's quite impressive how scared everybody is of this administration. News outlets, international leaders even in face of threats, big tech, including the delusional Musk who thought he could've handled the president's rage. Hell even his own party is scared of speaking up, you either fall in line or you risk falling victim of the most vicious direct attacks, even if you've been a huge and core voice for the president, see senator Marjorie Green. From Russia, to Belarus, from the Philippines to Argentina, from Hungary to Poland it's crystal clear what a failure of democracy it is to have a presidential republic.
- cosmicgadget 9mo agoThe turning point may have been when the Supreme Court decided a president couldn't be criminally liable for anything done in office. Having no fear of consequences is quite an enabler.
- OutOfHere 9mo ago[flagged]
- pixelatedindex 9mo agoYou should read up on some market history, if you’re making ridiculous claims like this. > The interest rate can be set via an algorithm. Who writes this algorithm? Are algorithms without biases?
- OutOfHere 9mo agoDo you know anything about how data science works? The algorithm is to be tuned over historical data to optimize for an unchanging reward function. The problem isn't that complicated if you think about it.
- pixelatedindex 9mo agoI do know how data science works. > The algorithm is to be tuned over historical data So you’re saying that historical data can’t have biases? Data cannot be collected and shared (or not collected a la jobs report) to manipulate the output? Seems a bit of a naïve take if you ask me.
- OutOfHere 9mo agoIf data is not collected, it is missing. A decent algorithm will be robust to missing data. How on earth do you think the Fed sets the rate? Each board member probably has a simple spreadsheet, although they use their gut feeling in the end. It's markedly less objective and completely un-transparent. People here are funny in that when I preach for transparency and objectivity, they preach for obscurity and individual board member bias. Their skepticism of data science shows how uneducated they are about defining and optimizing an objective function.
- pixelatedindex 9mo ago
- hypeatei 9mo agoThey're already pursuing a case against another Fed board member, and now this? I have a feeling these two cases are going to suffer the same fate as the Letita James and James Comey cases: thrown out due to incompetence and/or malfeasance. It's a disgusting, clear weaponization of the DOJ. MAGA, of course, tried to accuse Biden of weaponizing them during his term so that they could justify the Trump 2.0 revenge tour. Now we're here.
- macinjosh 9mo agoThis is logical end game of having these economic controls at all. Put a steering wheel on it someone will drive it. A true free market isn’t at whims of any one person.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- jgalt212 9mo agoTrump is, of course, wrong. But the independence of the Fed being at stake is a myth. Since the bursting of the dot com bubble, the Fed has operated as if the well being of the investor class is their number one priority.
- cosmicgadget 9mo agoI wonder if we'll see another round of resignations at Justice like the Eric Adams thing. Powell normally talks around the political pressure he's been subjected to. Funny to see him call it out right here.
- throw0101c 9mo agoObservation: > Some countries that have prosecuted or threatened to prosecute central bankers for the purpose of political intimidation or punishment for monetary policy decisions: Argentina, Russia, Turkey, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. * https://xcancel.com/jasonfurman/status/2010532384924442645#m https://xcancel.com/jasonfurman/status/2010532384924442645#m * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Furman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Furman And Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) > If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none. It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question. > I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed—including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy—until this legal matter is fully resolved. * https://xcancel.com/SenThomTillis/status/2010514786467959269 https://xcancel.com/SenThomTillis/status/2010514786467959269 who sits on the United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs (which oversees the Fed): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_Committee_on_Banking,_Housing,_and_Urban_Affairs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_Committee... The "independence and credibility of the DoJ" line is quite something else.
- kentm 9mo agoThere’s no question about the independence of the DoJ. Its independence is undeniably gone and it is full on working as Trump’s enforcement arm. Anyone who tries to argue otherwise is a clown.
- nullocator 9mo agoThom Tillis is a liar and will immediately confirm whoever Trump nominates. There are no examples of Tillis or other prominent republicans ever coming together to actually effectively oppose a Trump nominee (see the current secretary of defense, or leader of DHS for evidence).
- itsdrewmiller 9mo agoMatt Gaetz didn't get the AG spot - there was at one point some kind of a line.
- the_real_cher 9mo agoMonero up around 20% today.
- pixelatedindex 9mo agoI’m a little shocked to see the quality of some comments here - I would expect a more grounded discussion. This is like Reddit / YouTube comment history. Someone please tell me this is a Wendy’s. Sure the Fed isn’t perfect. But we don’t really have a better solution as of now because our financial systems are extremely powerful and anyone in office would love to abuse it if they can. Sure, the renovations are ridiculous. But it’s not like this administration is austere in the slightest, so that’s a bit rich. Not to mention the cronyism prevalent across the cabinet.
- pests 9mo agoWhy are the renovations ridiculous?
- pixelatedindex 9mo agoNot the renovations themselves but the cost is supposedly at 2.5B. Personally I don’t really mind but I also don’t think government buildings need to be all that fancy with marble flooring.
- pests 9mo agoIt was budgeted at 1.9B (in 2019). Most of the cost overruns are from unexpected site issues like asbestos (more than thought) and water table problems. The buildings are historic, they already had marble. The marble was taken down and saved, this marble will be re-used. Some pieces are damaged, those will be new marble. These buildings are near 100 years old. I also don't think they have marble floors, but facades and other stonework.
- Kephael 9mo agoI don't understand the cost either, apparently it only costs around a billion dollars to build a skyscraper? The Burj Khalifa only cost one and a half billion dollars when completed in 2010. I don't know that there's criminal activity here, but the cost of this is rather surprising to me. I knew the Federal Reserve was being renovated, but I thought it was something closer to a hundred million dollars.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- omnivore 9mo agoWhat an unhinged moment in time. At some point, they'll need to be courageous people with the ability and funds to speak up and say enough. But will they? It does not appear so.
- egberts1 9mo agoIt all started with all grants and department expenditures being tagged with the employee ID, of supervisory. Latest 2024 budget expenses, a fairly good percentage were chocked with no ID, no supervisor or delgated authority. Better now, no ID, no money from Treasury.
- jacquesm 9mo agoShots fired. Even the republicans will not be able to ignore this and they know that if Powell caves in the American economy will likely collapse. So who will speak up in his defense?
- breakyerself 9mo agoIt's probably going to collapse anyway. He's been hitting all of the pillars of the economy with a sledge hammer.
- jacquesm 9mo agoYes, but for now the USD has more or less survived. If Trump forcibly removes the FED chair on a pretext things could go downhill very fast. You can probably kiss the USD as a reserve currency goodbye overnight and China is going to have a real problem given the amount of debt they hold. This could easily knock the last pillar that holds it all up away.
- hvb2 9mo ago> Yes, but for now the USD has more or less survived. Excuse me? It lost over 10% in a year against the euro and almost 10% against the British pound. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR
- altmanaltman 9mo agoI wonder how the stock market would look if AI wasn't such a big driving factor. Or how it would look if there was no sledge hammer. Insane times.
- f33d5173 9mo agoMy working theory is that the ai bubble is caused by trump. People are too uncertain to want to invest in most industries, but they have to put their money somewhere, so they put it in ai stocks. Since the supreme court is likely to rule trump's tariffs illegal in a week or so, this may lead to a stock market crash. As people reallocate their portfolios, they will sell their ai stocks, which will pop the bubble and cause a crash. Something to watch out for.
- boringg 9mo agoBest of luck JPow - that was a perfect statement from the Fed. It seems like theres a bit of an inflection point right now in the US. I wonder how much entropy the system can handle it has to be near a breaking point.
- refurb 9mo ago[flagged]
- jacquesm 9mo ago> I don’t get it. Then you should have probably left it at that. Criminal investigations in this administration are just a means of pressure and harassment, they have zero bearing on any suspicion of criminal activity. I predict that within a few days Powell will be the recipient of death threats. That's the second part of the pattern.
- refurb 9mo ago[flagged]
- mindslight 9mo ago> Should this administration NEVER conduct any criminal investigations Probably, yes. At least until they reverse course and start enforcing our most basic fundamental laws like the Constitution and Bill of Rights.
- kentm 9mo agoThis administration has not been operating the DoJ in good faith. One only has to look at the buffoonish attempts to push through charges on Comey, James and other political opponents to see that. Treating the investigation in good faith is not being neutral or unbiased. Expecting more of the same is.
- refurb 9mo ago> One only has to look at the buffoonish attempts to push through charges on Comey, James and other political opponents to see that. How so? Charges were dismissed on a technicality of on the US prosecutor who brought them, not based on evidence presented. Have you seen all the evidence? You seem very confident that no crime has been committed. I mean we've seen the declassified Obama memo on sicking the CIA on Trump. Seems like some smoke there, why not find out if there is a fire?
- idiotsecant 9mo agoIf Trump does try to politicize the fed he is going to do the one thing that the American political system will not tolerate - messing with the money of the most powerful capital class in the world. Normally, the incentives of this class are most aligned with grinding the rest of us into a fine powder suitable for lubrication of the engines of commerce, but hopefully just this once they'll come to the rescue. My only fear is that the short term quarterly obsessions that we've built might actually lead to some business supporting this decision out of a suicidal drive for short term gains.
- CamperBob2 9mo agoIf Trump does try to politicize the fed he is going to do the one thing that the American political system will not tolerate I've lost track of the number of times I, and others, have said that. Turns out there really are no brakes on the Trump Train. In the parlance of the metallic-headgear fans, any other POTUS would have been treated to a nice convertible ride through downtown Dallas by now.
- b00ty4breakfast 9mo agoI can't say I'm the biggest fan of the financial apparatus in general but it is more than a little heartening to see someone in the federal government with a spine for once.
- jacquesm 9mo agoHe's one of very few adults left at that level.
- callc 9mo agoIt might be childish, but I think the “act like an adult” (or not) is a good way to frame the bad behavior that’s been so present lately. It encapsulates so much of how I want to describe things. Selfish behavior - this adult is just a child who didn’t learn to share. Mean and vindictive behavior - didn’t learn to empathize as a kid Lying? You’re still a child. Grow up and then join the adults.
- mattgreenrocks 9mo agoVery apt for the current moment. Adults push back on aggressors when necessary. Children cower behind the adults.
- dionian 9mo agoyou mean for not cutting interest rates, right?
- camillomiller 9mo agoWhat about another nice dinner with all the Silicon Valley CEOs paying their respect to the orange dictator? I'm sure that will appease him. What a bunch of spineless puppets.
- duxup 9mo agoTrump can’t tolerate anyone in government who isn’t a total Trump sycophant.
- burnt-resistor 9mo ago(Boring, important thing that holds civilization together.) Dunning-Kruger effect billionaire: We don't need that. What's it even for anyhow? I'm not paying for it. All these naysaying wimps and freeloaders say we can't live without out. I will use my unelected government position and bling chainsaw to cut fraud, waste, and abuse to eliminate red tape and unnecessary big government regulation. And I demand a negative tax rate, subsidies, and lucrative government contracts! Rawr!
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- dpc_01234 9mo agoThe US government entered a debt spiral a while ago (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA), and needs lower interest rates to service its tremendous debt while trying to inflate it away by printing money. That's all it comes down to. For decades fiscal conservatives were warning about it and were laughed at. Now that we're are the end game the inevitable shitshow will become apparent. You can hate Trump (rightly so), but as much as he did contribute to the problem directly, the problem is larger and systemic, and anyone else in office would have the exact same problem now.
- Kephael 9mo agoExactly, interest rates must come down due to the government debt burden. This debt burden creates a strong incentive to force rates to zero, but we have to pretend the Federal Reserve is independent. Separately, I think Jerome Powell is one of the worst Fed chairs as he is most (but not exclusively) responsible for what happened to the housing market by creating a lock-in effect and focusing on their CPI basket.
- nullocator 9mo agoOr you know we could like tax wealthy people and companies...
- burnt-resistor 9mo agoAmerica needs more public administrators like Powell in POTUS, SCOTUS, and COTUS: seemingly boring, reasonable, decent, professional, and competent.
- bulbar 9mo agoThank God there's one important institution that can not be forced or bullied into compliance. Powell will go down in history as hero.
- docmars 9mo agoAs they say in Starship Troopers: "It's afraid." Good.
- fittingopposite 9mo agoTLDR and context?
- bean469 9mo agoI think that the President has too much power and should have only a symbolic role, limited to soft-powers
- jayd16 9mo agoWell the power is limited but weve also allowed every check and balance to be given to sympathetic cronies.
- treebeard901 9mo agoThe entire reason the markets give the response wanted after a rate cut is because of the decision being made independently of politics. A politically enforced rate cut may still boost the economy in the short term, over the longer term the interest rate mechanism will not be trusted. This will defeat the entire purpose for very limited gain. Behind all of this is another fact that the conditions around the U.S. reserve currency are changing quickly. This is happening with just interest payments on existing debt being the largest cost every year. No matter who controls the Government, soon they will all be forced to cut spending in a large way and be forced to try to inflate themselves out of this coming debt crisis.
- windowpains 9mo agoI like jpow so I’m biased for sure. But when I zoom out, I think the thing some people are missing is the arbitrage aspect. With US politics, we typically get a choice between two people. Often it’s a choice between the lesser evil. Many of Trumps voters were not people who liked Trump, but people who were horrified by Kamala. This means Trump can arbitrage that gap, and do all sorts of disagreeable things as long as he remains the lesser evil to his voters, those disagreeable acts will be ignored come election time. Many Trump voters will be aghast at him weaponizing the courts to chip away at the independence of the fed, but they’ll vote for him and his preferred candidates because they feel the alternative is even worse. The important implication is that resistance or countering with extremism in the other direction only makes him stronger. To defeat Trump the left will need to move closer to the middle so he has less room for that kind of political arbitrage. Alas emotion seems to be in greater supply than strategic thinking so probably things will get worse before they get better.
- sergiogjr 9mo ago"In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment." I take any claims of absolute neutrality with a huge grain of salt. Besides, he's an unelected bureaucrat. He can only pretend to represent the interests of the people.
- aebtebeten 9mo agoBureaucrats can do more than pretend: they can have a history of actions which reflect their representation of the interests of the people.
- mickle00 9mo agoThe only adult left in the room :(