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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

• rurban 7y ago
  Thee next big cancellation will be the Cannes Film Festival, with ~40.000 foreigners invading this town for two weeks. This will cost a lot of money.
• aaron695 7y ago
  > coronavirus not contained by late May ?? It cannot be "contained" any more. Consensus is it's pandemic, it's not hard to see. Do we not understand how this works? What do reporters or the public think can happen? Even if there is a vaccination, which in reality will be years off, we can't even vaccinate measles across the world and certainly not by 'May'. We can't even supply gloves and face masks at the levels we need.
  • judge2020 7y ago
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-first-coronavirus-vaccine-for-human-testing-11582579099 https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-firs...
    • akmarinov 7y ago
      https://twitter.com/mmcauliff/status/1232344683348668416?s=21 https://twitter.com/mmcauliff/status/1232344683348668416?s=2...
    • sliken 7y ago
      I saw a quote recently saying something like claiming they have a surgeon making claims about an amazing new surgical procedure because they have an idea and a scalpel working. No proof that it works, doesn't have terrible side effects, or actually does anything useful on humans.
    • hobofan 7y ago
      And with that announcement, their stock price rose almost to their all-time high. Just as the stock price of the in-silico drug discovery platform did that claimed to have a vaccine within a day or so. I'll believe it when I see it. Until then the estimate of 1-2 years (which is already pretty fast for a vaccine that isn't already on a yearly-cycle like the flu shot), sounds far more likely.
  • quelltext 7y ago
    IIRC the SARS outbreak in 2003 was "contained" within that year.
    • cycrutchfield 7y ago
      We are orders of magnitudes larger than the SARS outbreak at this point.
      • deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
      • m0zg 7y ago
        It's also 17 years between then and now, and we've made great strides in antiviral drug research. Trials for COVID-19 specific antiviral drug have already started, and there already exists a vaccine for it as well. Let's not do doom&gloom here. The press does it for clicks, but there's no reason for normal, sane people to buy into this clickbait bullshit.
      • SECProto 7y ago
        > We are orders of magnitudes larger than the SARS outbreak at this point an order* SARS had ~8500 cases, ~800 deaths [1]. COVID-19 is currently ~81000 cases and ~2700 deaths.[2] It will be orders, plural, at some point, but remains to be seen how big (and I won't speculate on that). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2003_Probable_cases_of_SARS_-_Worldwide.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2003_Probable_cases_of_SA... [2] https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
        • totalZero 7y ago
          In my mind at least, all of these numbers are applesauce. Our ability to trust these numbers hinges on our ability to trust information reported by China's government and other authoritarian regimes (eg Iran and North Korea).
  • toast0 7y ago
    You wouldn't need to vaccinate the world to host an event. Vaccinate the participants and the antendees and the staff.
• _JamesA_ 7y ago
  The title is missing the key word Olympics.
  • dang 7y ago
    Ok, let's have Olympics above.
• akmarinov 7y ago
  The European football cup is looking like it will be canceled as well.
  • Fezzik 7y ago
    Any news source on this? UEFA seems to be saying there is no chance of cancelling the Cup... which I find believable, as the governing bodies for the various soccer leagues and competitions tend to be more money-hungry than other sports. Edit: grammar.
    • ta999999171 7y ago
      ...because they're scumbags. Just to complete the thought.
    • lrhegeba 7y ago
      given the importance of football (economic but mainly bc public entertainment #1) i expect it to take place * in empty stadiums * players and staff are waived to travel even when quarantine in place but mostly bc the virus should hopefully succumb to warm weather as the cup is in summertime
  • kzrdude 7y ago
    Why? Spreading out the venues over the whole of Europe seems to be a good strategy (not intentional, of course) for an event like an epidemic. Less concentration of fans and teams that way.
    • flukus 7y ago
      Spreading out the venues means spreading out the transmission. You'll have 20000 people flying from country A to watch a match in country B, then they'll get on another plane together and fly to country C then some will go back home while others fly to country D for the knockouts. A single sick person and it could suddenly be a Europe wide epidemic. Throw in the drinking, the hugging and the tears that these occasions create and it's almost the perfect recipe to spread a virus. A lot could change by June though.
• JohnJamesRambo 7y ago
  This may seem silly but this is one of my first confirmations about how serious this is.
  • wyldfire 7y ago
    It seems like the world is gradually acknowledging its seriousness as it continues to spread. This is certainly the highest-profile event that has considered cancellation.
    • sk0g 7y ago
      Events don't really get bigger than Olympics, do they? The last ones to be cancelled were due to world wars.
      • chewz 7y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Summer_Olympics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Summer_Olympics
      • CaptainZapp 7y ago
        Actually they do. "The World Cup is the most prestigious association football tournament in the world, as well as the most widely viewed and followed sporting event in the world, exceeding even the Olympic Games"[1] [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup
  • TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago
    Does anyone know if ya can catch this thing twice? Or are we expecting it to mutate similar to cold n flu viruse?
    • roywiggins 7y ago
      Seems like yes, but not because it mutates, it's just that the immune response can be weak. Probably more of a risk for people with weak immune systems to start with. Everything I've read suggests that Coronaviruses are more stable, genetically speaking, than the flu. https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/its-possible-for-coronavirus-to-reinfect-recovered-patients-chinese-expert-warns/ https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/its-possible-...
• tinza123 7y ago
  Containing it? It's hopeless. Just cancel earlier so the economic loss can be contained.
  • FooHentai 7y ago
    Containment is still desirable even in a scenario where this has spread to all countries and on-track to become endemic. Why? Because it buys time. If a vaccine can be developed, which is likely but certain to take some months, then you can inoculate the populace and end up in a situation where it's endemic-but-managed. If you don't contain, however, then you assuredly burn through whatever portion of your populace will succumb to this thing, all but ensuring your nation's health service becomes overwhelmed, and as a bonus you stoke mutation due to a greater number of hosts. Fatalism is not useful here and should not be encouraged under any circumstances. Containment efforts are never in vain.
    • WalterBright 7y ago
      > which is likely but certain to take some months The news today reported 12 to 18 months for mass availability of a vaccine.
      • n0rbwah 7y ago
        There was an article about an experimental way of creating new vaccines that could potentially get it out faster. https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-first-coronavirus-vaccine-for-human-testing-11582579099 https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-firs...
    • tinza123 7y ago
      Not just development of the vaccine, you will need to perform sufficient clinic testing, get it approved by FDA or equivalent in other countries, and most difficult, get it mass produced. In addition, treatment would be a entirely different story. I agree it should be contained, I just don't see it can be contained to an extent where the Olympic Games can still proceed as planned.
  • 7y ago
• flukus 7y ago
  I wonder how long until other international events start to be closed? I live almost trackside at a formula 1 event in a few weeks and I'm not exactly enthusiastic about people coming in from all over the world and cramming onto the public transport while they're drunk and sweaty. It probably can't be contained anyway but large international events could cause some huge spikes in transmission.
  • AmVess 7y ago
    China GP is cancelled, and they are thinking about cancelling the Italian GP. More will certainly follow.
    • onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
      What is GP?
      • peterhookgen 7y ago
        GP = Grand Prix
      • deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
      • AmVess 7y ago
        Sorry, Formula 1 gran prix.
  • totalZero 7y ago
    Mobile World Congress was cancelled two weeks ago. 100,000 people. $500 million in economic activity in Barcelona. Many exhibitors from China. It's already happening.
  • hnick 7y ago
    Many major exhibitors are avoiding trade shows at least in the gaming industry, from what I've seen. Not the same as the show being cancelled but you can only have so many no-shows before it's the same in practice.
• DrJaws 7y ago
  It will be cancelled. Mathematic models made by epidemiologist experts from Harvard and prediction from John Hopkins guys are giving huge numbers between 40 and 70% world adult population will be infected in one year and numbers of deaths will be between 30 and 150 million if their predictions are correct and china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Read the threads from their twitters, the situation is much much worse than the media is telling constantly with the influenza comparison, and this guys are not nuts, they are top minds of epidemic control. A brief from their conversations and information would be: - It is absolutely impossible to stop covid and will be a pandemic - The death rate could hit 10% in some countries - Expect between 30 and 70% of the world to be infected - millions of deaths - Governments duty now is not to stop the disease as they can't, but try to slow it until we understand it better, have real numbers (chinese ones cannot to be trusted), and we develop a vaccine so the R0 can be <1 - Governments are likely going to adopt the hardest restrictions they can get away, expect quarantines on every country - Health services on third world countries will collapse, first world will have problems as we are not prepared - CDC is already saying the virus will be with us more than one season - hope we can avoid more deadly mutations https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?refreshed=1582681665 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1228373884027592704.html?... https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1231425805898657795.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1231425805898657795.html https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/research/ncov-making-sense-of-an-epidemic/ https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/research/ncov-making-sense-of-... https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby https://twitter.com/T_Inglesby https://twitter.com/DrEricDing https://twitter.com/DrEricDing https://twitter.com/mlipsitch https://twitter.com/mlipsitch
  • Alex3917 7y ago
    > china didn't lie with the 2% death rate Keep in mind that 2% is just a guess, of people officially diagnosed the death rate is supposedly 4.8%: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality_rate_50k_study/ https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9134d/48_fatality...
    • DrJaws 7y ago
      We need to take into account also the asymptomatic people that will never report the disease
• m3kw9 7y ago
  Cancel culture is getting out of hand.
• dzink 7y ago
  Would a vaccine for Covid-19 work if the virus can re-infect people who have already recovered from it?
  • Fomite 7y ago
    Vaccines can involve a number of techniques that can provoke a stronger immune response than a natural infection.
    • baq 7y ago
      ...which notably was the case in one of original SARS vaccine attempts.
  • netheril96 7y ago
    I heard talks that these "reinfections" are actually people not completely recovering.
• 01100011 7y ago
  I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people. Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit to our soon-to-be overworked heath care system and preserve resources for those who can't hide. I think those of us who have the ability to work from home for a while might want to consider agitating for it to be official policy for the next month or so.
  • Barrin92 7y ago
    >I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. Am in the UK and not the US but given that I'm healthy and relatively young I don't really see the point. This disease is scary in the aggregate, i.e it imposes huge economic costs. The average case of it is basically having flu symptoms, and I never stayed at home unless I got sick during bad flu seasons. I'm not really sure why people paint being infected with this like the bubonic plague or something, there is already a bunch of corona viruses raging around all the time anyway. edit: lots of downvotes because I don't lock myself in because of a corona virus? People here seem to love hysteria a these days.
    • kylemh 7y ago
      At a nearly 2% mortality rate even for younger people, I think the odds are high enough to be worried. It's obviously not as deadly as the bubonic plague, but this disease is very infectious...
      • yitianjian 7y ago
        It's not 2% for younger, it's like <0.5% for less than 40, and something like 10% for older than 70.
      • ihadfun 7y ago
        This is not true. A recent study from China showed the mortality rate for 30-39 year olds to be .2% I believe. And the rate goes down from there as age decreases.
• rococode 7y ago
  I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of uncontained worldwide spread at this point - within the 1st week of reporting it already looked like China's numbers were incomplete (and potentially manipulated) and the scale was greatly underestimated. Untraceable transmission all over the place, relatively low-traffic countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka seeing cases very early on, extremely long incubation periods with airborne transmission without symptoms, false negative tests with people either catching the virus after leaving quarantine or not testing positive (both really bad signs), governments demonstrating weak and ineffective containment of potentially infected travelers (Japan: "no symptoms so they can go home!"), more infections than SARS in a small fraction of the time, the US only testing ~400 people thus far, entire families in Wuhan being wiped out. Basically everything is in place for this to be a serious pandemic. I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. As an aside, BNO has been doing an excellent job of posting timely and sourced updates that make it easy to keep up to date with every new confirmed case (scroll down to the Timeline section): https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus... Hopefully I can look back at this comment in a couple months and chuckle at my paranoia!
  • baxtr 7y ago
    Almost everything you write makes sense, but “entire families wiped out”? Do you have a source for that?
    • rococode 7y ago
      Here's one of the higher-profile examples: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-kills-chinese-film-director-chang-kai-wuhan/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-kills-chinese-film-... > Chang's father, mother and sister also died from the disease, Chinese financial news outlet Caixin reported. His father first exhibited symptoms of the coronavirus on January 25, but was turned away at hospitals because of a lack of beds, leaving him to fight the disease at home. He died days later, followed by Chang's mother, who also succumbed to the illness. > After caring for their parents, Chang and his sister were infected with the coronavirus; according to Caixin, Chang died on February 14, and hours later, so did his sibling. Chang's wife also contracted the virus and remains in serious condition. I've also heard of some totally unconfirmed posts on Weibo, WeChat, etc. with similar stories of entire families being infected and stuck at home without treatment, but those are of course just rumors.
• lqs469 7y ago
  80 years ago, in 1940, Tokyo hosted the Summer Olympics for the first time, but it was canceled due to the outbreak of WWII and Japan had invaded China. 80 years after, in 2020, Tokyo Summer Olympics could be canceled due to outbreak of coronavirus from China.
  • t-writescode 7y ago
    Coincidence?! Yes.
  • paxys 7y ago
    In 1940 it was "Screw you China" - Japan In 2020, it is "Screw you Japan" - China
    • deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
• oh_sigh 7y ago
  Will the tech sector fare better than the general economy during this? After all, no physical contact is the norm there.
  • robjan 7y ago
    Depends on what real-world businesses and processes the tech are supporting. Most tech doesn't exist in isolation and involves things like manufacturing and logistics. Other tech companies are supported by ads which are funded by the aforementioned.
• mc3 7y ago
  Time for a remote distributed Olympics!
  • lqs469 7y ago
    Organizers have to take into account transportation costs and administrative costs. unless as close as possible, such as the World Cup in South Korea and Japan, but that also means no distribution.
  • antris 7y ago
    Go esports!
  • yoavm 7y ago
    ah, finally something we can use blockchain for!
• kyeb 7y ago
  Wow, I've been reading Axios as my primary news source for years - first time I've seen it linked on HN, though! I highly recommend it to other people here. The reporting tends to be smart and to the point, their UI/UX is smooth and modern, and their ads tend to be more subtle than similar news sites.
  • devmunchies 7y ago
    You can click the site name in the title and see all the post from that site. It’s pretty regular. https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=axios.com https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=axios.com
• chime 7y ago
  For anyone looking for more, try the subreddits /r/Covid19 (scientific/medical info), /r/CoronaVirus (maintstream news), and /r/China_Flu (social posts).
  • LeoPanthera 7y ago
    I'm not sure I trust Reddit, or indeed any social media, for reliable reporting on such an emotive topic. There's already so much misinformation and conspiracy theories about the disease.
    • dx034 7y ago
      It's the same as with Hackernews. You should never trust unsourced claims but it can be a great source to find more articles and opinions on the matter.
    • ripdog 7y ago
      Reddit is mostly links to other sources, though. If you're reading self-posts on reddit, obviously be aware that they're not intended to be even seen as 'reporting', but rather discussion topics. /r/covid19 and /r/coronavirus are both well-moderated to remove rumors and rubbish.
    • chime 7y ago
      I agree. That's why I listed the 3 different subs with different moderation criteria. I would much prefer to hear from someone like Dr. Cole than a random anonymous tweet: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9dbeq/covid19_what_do_we_have_to_fear_from_a_pandemic/ https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/f9dbeq/covid19_wha... > Dr Jennifer Cole is an Associate Fellow at RUSI. She was previously Senior Research Fellow, Resilience and Emergency Management from 2007-2017. Her research interests focus on international threats from emerging infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and the UK’s emergency preparedness and response capabilities, with particular regard to CBRN(E), pandemics, flood management, cyber security, resilient communications and the role of training and exercising in resilience. > https://rusi.org/people/cole https://rusi.org/people/cole
    • 7y ago
• rurban 7y ago
  Very likely not. Olympics are in the summer, the virus doesn't even survive the spring. By May it will be gone.
  • LeoPanthera 7y ago
    [Citation needed]
    • rurban 7y ago
      From the expert https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-call-coronavirus-expert https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/confere...
  • hurrdurr2 7y ago
    This is wildly optimistic. MERS is a similar virus and it is pretty much endemic in the Middle East.
    • deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
• AareyBaba 7y ago
  Johns Hopkins has an world map with daily update of current coronavirus cases https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
  • maxden 7y ago
    I would have expected to see Russia reporting more than two cases given the travel between the two countries.
    • jacquesm 7y ago
      Russia is not the most transparent country when it comes to such news, to put it mildly.
• testfoobar 7y ago
  I know we haven't yet resolved what is happening now. But I'm curious - what happens this coming winter with this virus? It is my understanding that SARS and MERS were extinguished - they are not circulating anymore in the general population. Given the dispersion of this virus already, I can imagine hotspots rotating around the globe until the winter. Will it then explode in numbers once again in the colder temperatures/lower humidity of winter?
  • ta999999171 7y ago
    It is Winter in parts of the world.
• nradov 7y ago
  Rather then cancelling completely, a limited option would be to run the games in quarantine with just athletes, officials, and media. No spectators allowed. Athletes confined to the Olympic Village for a couple weeks before and after the Games, and bused to event venues with no public contact.
  • bulutsuzku 7y ago
    Japaneses prefer to kill all the population defending their "honour" than being rational.
• xvilka 7y ago
  Why not just postpone it for the same time next year? It's still possible and not a complete cancellation either.
  • bamboozled 7y ago
    I think it would be better to postpone it to a cooler time of the year also. Not sure if you've visited Tokyo in summer, but it's a ridiculous time to be having it.
    • xvilka 7y ago
      Yes, I have been in Tokyo in summer, it's surprisingly hot and humid.
• animalnewbie 7y ago
  One thing that's not being noted is that the disease has almost 1 in 500 mortality rate for under 40.
  • deadmutex 7y ago
    We all have family, etc. over 70 though.
    • rimliu 7y ago
      I don't.
      • rimliu 7y ago
        Those, who think I do: please name anyone. I just wanted to point absurd generalization "we all".
  • sfj 7y ago
    The problem is if hospitals are overrun, the death rate becomes much higher. I think there is a 10 to 15 percent hospitalization rate. We don't have enough beds if enough get infected at once.
• noodlesUK 7y ago
  As someone tangentially attached to the sports community, the olympics is already a bit screwed up anyway, simply because the sports seasons (and thus the qualification pathway) for many events in the games have been significantly disrupted by the coronavirus. Many athletes who were in touching distance of qualifying will not be able to, and other athletes will be sent in their stead (if it happens at all) Olympic qualification in most sports is extremely complicated, and this is having a serious effect. That being said, sport is not so important (imho) that public safety should be put at risk, and cancelling the games (or postponing them) would seem a sensible option if things continue to get worse.
  • koheripbal 7y ago
    I think it's already a certainty that it's going to be cancelled - they are just trying to lighten the blow by telling people they're just "considering it".
  • jfkebwjsbx 7y ago
    It is not your humble opinion. Sports are just entertainment nowadays. Lowest priority.
    • skrebbel 7y ago
      What a strange way to say "I agree".
    • JumpCrisscross 7y ago
      > Sports are just entertainment nowadays As opposed to when they were military training in Ancient Greece?
    • artsyca 7y ago
      People don't really have their own opinions we are just collections of ideas picked up and regurgitated
      • andreilys 7y ago
• chewz 7y ago
  > Japan’s leaders are so out of touch with the lives of ordinary people that they seem genuinely uninterested in their plight. That, in turn, allows an entire bureaucracy to wallow in denial, even over a crisis like the coronavirus outbreak and just a few months away from the Olympics. [] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-japan-abe.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-japan...
  • drak0n1c 7y ago
    Similarly, the mayor of Boston chastised Sony for cancelling its PAX East appearance, and accused Sony of supporting bigotry. The bureaucratic disconnect is universal. https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2020-02-24-boston-mayor-petitions-sony-to-return-to-pax-east https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2020-02-24-boston-may...
• netheril96 7y ago
  Every time COVID-19 comes up people talk about the "low" mortality rate. But that hinges on enough medical resources. This disease quickly drains medical resources due to so many becoming critically ill. Without effective containment, a country will see their medical resources exhausted, and then the mortality rate won't be 2% ~ 5%. Exactly how high that will be remains to be seen.
  • john_minsk 7y ago
    ~20% of cases are severe and require advanced medical support. I guess it is a good approximation of death rate without medical support.
• reustle 7y ago
  For those of you curious about the state of COVID-19 in Japan, I created an open source tracker that has gained a lot of momentum. Source Code: https://github.com/reustle/covid19japan/ https://github.com/reustle/covid19japan/ Tracker: https://covid19japan.com https://covid19japan.com Twitter Thread: https://twitter.com/reustle/status/1229313493808992257 https://twitter.com/reustle/status/1229313493808992257
  • ImaCake 7y ago
    Thankyou. Nothing like well displayed data to shine sunlight on everyone's paranoia :)
  • einr 7y ago
    Thank you, this is very useful. Got a highly anticipated vacation in Tokyo and Kyoto coming up on the 8th and I'm trying to stay calm and reasonable about the risks. Cold, hard data in an easy to read format helps.
• burgerquizz 7y ago
  Are the effect of the coronavirus on the stock market could be opportunity for investing? The SP500 went down 8% this past 4 days. I'm wondering if that will go lower those next days. I have a bit amount of money on the side, I didn't know where to invest. Would now be a good opportunity to lump sum all the money, or would you Dollar Cost Average? Anyone else with the same dilemma, and would have more arguments?
  • jbob2000 7y ago
    Dollar cost average is your best bet since things are uncertain right now and you, as a retail investor, don't have up-to-date information and can't act very quickly. Your best investments are things that people can't say "no" to; infrastructure and utilities. Banks, railways, power companies, mining companies, and shipping are all things that reasonably hold their value no matter the economic circumstances. You could take a gamble on a pharmaceutical outfit, but if these companies are chasing a corona virus vaccine, they will probably take on a lot of debt to achieve it, which may bite them later.
  • jstewartmobile 7y ago
    the vulture approach to investing tends to be materially profitable yet karmically ruinous
    • pradn 7y ago
      Another way to look at it is that you're optimistic that the crisis will be resolved.
  • rurp 7y ago
    You're never going to get a useful answer to a question like this. If the market is efficient, which is a good default assumption, it's already factored in a weighted average of possible outcomes. Anybody who can reliably spot inefficiencies in the market is too busy making ridiculous amounts of money to respond on HN.
  • kpennell 7y ago
    I'm only betting small amounts and money I could lose....but I bet a 6 month put option using robinhood app on SPY and VTI and it's ready made me a good chunk of cash.
• pyuser583 7y ago
  I played way too much Plague.
• toshk 7y ago
  A friend of mine who worked for defense creating viruses is convinced it's man made because of the way the virus is structured. Whether it's true or not. It's an interesting case, and I wonder why no one is writing about this possibilty in the media. Those ideas are quickly dismissed as crazy conspiracy theory. Where every big government is actively working on creating viruses for both defense and offense. Especially because in Wuhan there is one of these labs. Around the world outbreaks out of viruses out of these labs happen regularly. Even on purpose sometimes, but most of the time accidently.
  • bantunes 7y ago
    > Around the world outbreaks out of viruses out of these labs happen regularly. Even on purpose sometimes, but most of the time accidently. Any sources on that?
  • ImaCake 7y ago
    Virologists seem pretty happy to say that the virus is not man made. [0] It is amazing to me the crazy theories circulating about this virus. Does anyone remember similar stories from Zika or Ebola 2015 outbreaks? 0. http://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-origin-of-ncov2019/384 http://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-ori...
    • dgellow 7y ago
      > Does anyone remember similar stories from Zika or Ebola 2015 outbreaks? Yes, lot of similar ones.
  • Mvandenbergh 7y ago
    I don't know if it's really worth engaging with this nonsense. It looks just like other coronaviruses, there is nothing about it that looks man-made. If it was man-made, don't you think the Chinese government would have locked things down more aggressively as soon as they realised it was out? After all, in this scenario they would know exactly how dangerous it is. >Where every big government is actively working on creating viruses for both defense and offense. How many of those have been respiratory viruses with long incubation times, low fatality rates in military age people, and no vaccines or other treatments? This is basically the worst candidate for a bio-weapon ever! The ideal bio-weapon: -Is something you can protect your own troops and people against -Can be treated but only with high expenditure of resources -Incapacitates the people it infects as soon as possible -Has no or moderate spread person-person Otherwise you are just releasing a pathogen that will come back and infect you as well. This is why Anthrax was such a popular bio weapon, person-person infection is extremely rare and it forms spores so can be spread over an area where it will linger but has little chance of causing an out-of-control epidemic. Smallpox was weaponised by the Soviet Union and that is very contagious but can be vaccinated against.
• Tepix 7y ago
  The significance of the 2020 Olympic games cannot be overstated. All of Japan has been preparing for this for far more than a decade. Just look at stuff from early 2010s regarding topic such as 8K TV and 5G networks. They have been working towards this singular event where Tokyo will be center at the world stage. It would be tragic (but understandable) to see it cancelled. I hope they can do it a year later instead or something like that.
  • RivieraKid 7y ago
    I don't understand why would they care so much about it... it doesn't really matter.
    • admiral33 7y ago
      Sounds like you've never been to a dinner party.
• socialdemocrat 7y ago
  I hope Americans will be fine but I fear it will get bad with the chaotic and ineffective leadership of Donald Trump combined with a privatized and highly individualized health care system. The American idea that health care is a privilege you have to pay for will hit a brick wall when you deal with a pandemic which does not give a shit about how rich or poor you are. With a minimalistic welfare state, lower class people will be forced to go to work and will not afford having health checkups. That will risk spreading the virus and cause more fatalities. What happens when private hospitals have to take on lots of patients who cannot pay? Will there be a race to the bottom trying to push patients over to other hospitals, dump them off on a curb as soon as possible? I cannot see how a relentlessly profit driven health care system can cope with a serious pandemic.
  • 34679 7y ago
    >With a minimalistic welfare state The US spends nearly 20% of GDP on welfare. More (as %GDP) than Australia, Canada, The Netherlands, Israel, Switzerland, and many others. In terms of total spending, it's #2 in the world. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_social_welfare_spending https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_social_...
    • jbms 7y ago
      How much of that 20% goes to pay malpractice insurance and lawsuits?
• alex_roan 7y ago
  Surely European Football Championships this summer is under threat too?
  • originalvichy 7y ago
    Hopefully there’s a green light for games televised from empty stadiums.
• thereyougo 7y ago
  I hope it won't happen but the Olympic could make it spread to countries the virus might not reach otherwise
• noja 7y ago
  Can it be athletes only?
• skc 7y ago
  I'm pretty confident that eventually we will have effective remedies that will keep people who contract it from having to be hospitalized, which is the real problem here.
• sciinfo 7y ago
  Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College: => Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who don't go to see doctors) => Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5% => Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18% The last line (18%) applies when the outbreak becomes prevalent in an area and overwhelm hospital capacity. If not contained, dozens of cities around the world may become Hubei! Ref: Report 4 here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana.. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana.... From Report 6: "we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China." Follow their Twitter at @MRC_Outbreak
  • sciinfo 7y ago
    For people still thinking it is just another SARS, MERS, or Swine Flu, check out these graphs: https://ncov.r6.no/ https://ncov.r6.no/
• anitawilson1010 7y ago
  I THOUGHT THE PYSICIANS SAY NO CURE FOR HIV/AIDS?, I AM TELLING YOU TODAY THAT DR GADAGODO CURE HIV/AIDSWITH HIS HERBAL MEDICINE AND ONCE YOU GET CURED YOU ARE FOREVER CURED IT IS NEVER REVERSABLE.MY NAME IS ANITA WILSON I AM FROM BOSTON MA,, UNITED STATES.I AM USING THIS GREAT OPORTUNITY TO SAVE LIFEBY SHARING MY TESTIMONY THAT THERE IS A CURE FOR HIV/AIDS BECAUSE I AM A LIVING TESTIMONY,I SUFFEREDFOR HIV/AIDS FOR GOOD 3YERS AND 2MONTHS AFTER LOOSING HOPE THAT I CAN NEVER GET THE CURE BEACAUSE THE DOCTORS SAIDTHERE IS NO CURE FOR IT,BUT THANKS BEEN TO THIS GREAT MAN CALLED DR GADAGODO WHOM I READ A TESTIMONY ABOUT ON HOW HE CURED HIV/AIDS WITH HIS HERBAL MEDICINE,I NEVER BELIEVE THIS BUT I DECIDED TO CONTACT HIM THROUGH THE STATED EMAIL,gadagodospiritualtemple@gmail.com and he send to me a herbal medicine and ask me to drink and bath with the herbal medicine for one month but to my greatest surprises, i went for Ia medical test after two weeks and my status was negetive till today i cant keep sharing this testimony please brothers and sisters there is a cure to hiv/aids, contact this man for what ever you are going through, what ever sickness you are suffering from, hiv/aids,perkinsons disease, ALS,CANCERS,HERPES. contact him with his email via, gadagodospiritualtemple@gmail.com watsapp,+2348121921632.
• jtn_001 7y ago
  Look like things getting out of control, world need to assemble the core team which include world's top virology scientist, pharma company and top AI team and jointly discover the drug in faster way and they open source they works on github or other plateform to invite others people to get involve to make thing on faster and best way
  • mantap 7y ago
    The problem is not discovering the vaccine, it is ensuring it is safe. See the recent Dengue vaccine incident of what can go wrong when new vaccines are rolled out without proper caution: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy
• Waterluvian 7y ago
  Cancelled or postponed? By now they must have already spent a huge amount of infrastructure. And why outright cancel? _why_ can't you "just do it in October"?
  • yifanl 7y ago
    Asking athletes to perform in dramatically different conditions than they train for (which will be the case for at least for outdoor events) is practically asking them to drop out.
• mech1234 7y ago
  Referencing the http://coronavirus-realtime.com/ http://coronavirus-realtime.com/ website, the graph of the number of infections over time is suspiciously non-exponential right now. I think China and the rest of the world are both struggling to collect data on confirmed cases.
  • daanavitch 7y ago
    That whole website is an iframe with donation buttons and ads overlaid. The original url is https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
    • mech1234 7y ago
      Yep, and they come up higher on the search results in bing and google. Not sure if I really recommend them, but their dang domain name sure is a hell of a lot easier to remember. Maybe I would recommend them on that fact alone- in a public health crisis, easy access to critical information is important.
  • mlrtime 7y ago
    This site is garbage and needs to be deleted, making money off of https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
• claudeganon 7y ago
  Here’s a new, succinct account of how terribly the Abe government is handling the situation: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-japan-abe.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-japan...
• dredmorbius 7y ago
  I'm in the middle of writing a general update / reassessment (usual caveat: nonexpert space alien cat on the Internets). 1. The wider spread is concerning. 2. Institutional trust, capabilities, and competence in numerous countries is a key factor. Notably in Iran, though also North Korea (its zero case reports is increasingly implausible), and Africa (many ties to China, no cases outside Egypt's sole case). 3. Testing and monitoring are critical, but limited. Keeping ahead of spreads, testing and screening protocols, and back-tracing community transmissions to a confirmed source, will be key to limiting further outbreaks. 4. Second-order impacts are likely to be far greater than the medical consequences, all told. China's CO2 emissions are down by a quarter, not because a quarter of the population is medically impacted, but because preventive efforts, including transport, work, and education shut-downs, have tremendously reduced total activity. Reported cases are 0.005% of the population, deaths 0.0002%. It's concerns (valid), not medical severity itself, which are driving these impacts. Recognising that the present costs are well worth a potential future avoided risk are well-worth paying is a message that needs to be effectively communicated.
• nabla9 7y ago
  Coronavirus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise. Just like common flu virus, increasing sunlight and humidity will stop the spread of the virus during summer. Source: professor John Nicholls a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong and expert on coronaviruses had a conference call where he explained most likely outcome. transcript here: https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-call-coronavirus-expert https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/confere...
  • GarrisonPrime 7y ago
    That’s not soon enough of a resolution to avoid affecting the games, I’m afraid.
  • bognition 7y ago
    Yeah its pretty wild to compare the rates of infection and mortality inside main land china with the rest of the world. The high infection/death rates aren't showing up in the rest of the world. The interesting follow question is why? It could be a number of things, my guess is a sampling issue. Given how secretive the Chinese govt is we'll likely never know.
    • mobilefriendly 7y ago
      The mortality rate in Italy is roughly the same as China. I think it is too early to make this claim. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...?
    • innocenat 7y ago
      It's because 14 days incubation time. It will take 14 days until number start to pick up from the initial infection in new area. It also depends if there is a space available hospital --- overflown hospitals (as in Wuhan) will make numbers grow much quicker.
    • bitreality 7y ago
      You're grossly misinformed. The China outbreak was so strong initially because they had no idea what they were dealing with. The spread and infection is invisible for weeks. There are many people spreading Coronavirus as we speak without knowing a thing. Korea, Iran and Italy all have major outbreaks which only revealed themselves this week, but likely began 2-3 weeks prior. Iran has clearly no idea how many cases are in its country, its numbers are 15 deaths and <100 cases. That's over 15% death rate. Makes no sense compared to all other reported number, their real total cases are likely over 1000.
• every 7y ago
  I will be working our precinct polls on Super Tuesday. I will try to practice the common preventatives for exposure. Wash or use wipes regularly (no need for anti-bacterial). Make a conscious effort not touch your eyes, nose or mouth with your hands until you have washed. Insist anyone coughing or sneezing cover their mouth (offer them a tissue). I've had my flu vaccine in preparation but of course that is worthless against this new strain. I'll do my civic duty on Tuesday as promised, but if things continue to degrade, there is no way in hell I'm working November. I'm in the "elderly" high risk group and not feeling especially lucky...
• aazaa 7y ago
  This same tough decision-making process will play out thousands of times in the next few months. Any event that draws an international crowd poses an elevated risk. You can't know where people have been or what kind of screening process has been applied. If you're planning on attending a tech conference with an international crowd, now is the time to reconsider. The possibility of asymptomatic transmission through casual contact poses unprecedented challenges. As does the low number of cases on which to draw information from outside of China. The problem right now is the extremely poor quality on the information around the disease. Maybe this thing will behave like other infections and "burn itself out" as summer in the northern hemisphere approaches. Maybe it won't. There's quite literally no way to know.
  • bitreality 7y ago
    The disease has spread in places like Singapore and Thailand, which are warmer in February than most Northern Hemisphere cities are in summer. The notion that everything will just die down come Spring is blindingly optimistic.
    • saiya-jin 7y ago
      How do those place fare with regular flu? Parents optimism comes from the notion that in colder climates, there is almost no flu during warm months.
      • senordevnyc 7y ago
        Influenza is a totally different virus though. That said, other corona viruses do tend to display seasonality but experts are uncertain about this latest one: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happens-to-coronavirus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happ...
    • dredmorbius 7y ago
      Despite WHO-Philippines's warning that transmission in tropical/subtropical regions is possible, on February 7, the country only reports 3 cases. All resolved: 1 death, 2 recovered. https://twitter.com/WHOPhilippines/status/1225956082847109122?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw https://twitter.com/WHOPhilippines/status/122595608284710912... Mortality from Wikipedia: https://en https://en. wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak Upstream source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...
• ng7j5d9 7y ago
  It's already been established that hosting the Olympics in the current fashion is generally a money loser for the host city. All of those resources expended to build state-of-the-art facilities, housing, transportation, etc...with rosy ideas of how they might be repurposed after the Olympics....which generally don't come to fruition. And that's when the Olympics actually occur, and the host city is able to gain some revenue from visitors coming and spending a considerable amount of money. If Tokyo builds the required infrastructure and then no one comes, I've got to think future host cities will re-think this madness. Personally I'd like to see a distributed Olympics, with mostly pre-existing facilities being used. Maybe swimming happens in Copenhagen, basketball in LA, beach volleyball in Phuket, etc. Maybe some events could be held in smaller countries or cities that had never been able to complete for a full Olympics before. A larger percentage of the world population would be local to some part of the Olympics, perhaps for once highlighting sameness rather than differences. Or screw it, we could just let dumb governments keep throwing piles of money at this nonsense.
  • mcgrath_sh 7y ago
    The LA Olympics are, from what I recall from a Bill Simmons podcast[0], going to be one of the cheapest to host in history. Salt Lake City also continues to use most venues from the 2002 games[1]. Some of the highlights from the podcast on the 2028 LA Olympics: * Only major construction that is occurring is an upgraded temporary track in the Coliseum, renovation on USC’s swimming arena, and building a train line to the airport (which, IIRC, was in the long term plans already and is just being re-prioritized). The track from the Coliseum will be broken down and split among various high schools who can benefit. * There are some additional temporary structures going up, such as bleachers for beach volleyball. * The LA games are doing what you suggested and are using existing venues for almost everything. UCLA dorms are going to be the Olympic Village and USC dorms will host media. USC, UCLA, MLS, NFL, and NHL/NBA arenas will be used to host various events. There is no brand new permanent construction. [0] https://m.soundcloud.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/mayor-eric-garcetti-and-casey-wasserman-on-landing-the-2028-summer-olympics-ep-243 https://m.soundcloud.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/mayor-eric... [1] https://www.deseret.com/2017/2/4/20605641/utah-s-secret-sauce-keeps-olympic-venues-viable-15-years-after-games https://www.deseret.com/2017/2/4/20605641/utah-s-secret-sauc...
• aphextron 7y ago
  This is just typical "will it happen or won't it" pre-Olympics FUD. It's a perennial clickbait theme that always works. http://aroundtherings.com/site/A__74354/Title__IOC-Chief-Cancellation-of-PyeongChang-Olympics-Very-Close/292/Articles http://aroundtherings.com/site/A__74354/Title__IOC-Chief-Can... https://www.cntraveler.com/stories/2016-02-04/should-the-2016-olympics-be-canceled https://www.cntraveler.com/stories/2016-02-04/should-the-201... https://www.theguardian.com/sport/shortcuts/2012/jun/12/could-olympics-be-rained-off https://www.theguardian.com/sport/shortcuts/2012/jun/12/coul...
• samstave 7y ago
  My brother and his group of friends are all going to coachella and are talking about concerns with coronavirus, as its heavily visited by international goers. Apparently in the past, a huge herpes outbreak occurred, so its a good litmus for massive spread of something. Wonder if events like this will also be cancelled.
• gdubs 7y ago
  Nassim Taleb (author of “Black Swan”) wrote a quick mini paper on the risks of Coronavirus back in January. I think this crowd on HN would be interested: https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_...
• blhack 7y ago
  Ive been somewhat surprised at the coverage or lack thereof that this story has been getting on HN. This virus is disrupting manufacturing from China in a major way. It seems like one of the biggest tech stories of the last decade at least, and for some reason the stories about it seem to drop off of the front page really quickly. Are people flagging these or something for not being tech? Any of my network who does manufacturing is pretty concerned right now about supply chain.
  • jacquesm 7y ago
    > Are people flagging these or something for not being tech Could be, or it could be because they don't want to fan the flames of panic or it could be because they'd rather not know.
• akeck 7y ago
  Will the coming warmer weather in the northern hemisphere slow down COVID-19? That is, is temperature a factor?
• wendyshu 7y ago
  https://predictionbook.com/predictions/198425 https://predictionbook.com/predictions/198425
• epx 7y ago
  The solution is to spread this virus as fast as possible. Everybody gets infected, develops immunity, problem solved.
• gumby 7y ago
  This might be enough to kill the Olympics. There have been such near-cancellations before (consider Moscow and LA in the middle of the cold war), but the context was different: the Olympics were seen as an important trans-national counterforce to the conflict of the two superpowers' spheres of influence at a time when there were few such opportunities. This was ostensibly the original basis for the Olympics being revived/reinvented in the 1890s. Hosting the games could "make" a city (e.g. Melbourne and Tokyo in the 1960s). Nowadays the Olympics are simply one of a set of large international commercial activities and one of the most corrupt of them. Hosting them is typically a disaster for the hosting cities and fewer are interested in doing so. If the games are cancelled people will still seek entertainment, and these days with so many other options, the Olympic Games may not be missed enough to survive.
  • spiderfarmer 7y ago
    Cities will have to smarter with reusing existing and purpose built stadiums and buildings. One cancellation will not kill the brand.
    • gumby 7y ago
      Cities all know they have to be smarter but have not demonstrated an ability to do so. Just asserting they need to be doesn't really suggest any change might happen. As for a single cancellation: I discussed why this time could be different from the two previous examples. If you think that's wrong I'd like to read the counterargument.
• nojvek 7y ago
  I believe a lot more things should be cancelled because of coronavirus. The less we travel, the less it spreads. Effectively the entire world is connected with flights and transport. A contagious virus can prolly wipe out most of humanity in a short period of time. I’d say Airlines should give free refunds to people who don’t wish to vacation in this environment. It’s prolly wishful thinking though.
• lurquer 7y ago
  The Olympics won't be cancelled. Why? Because the percentage increase of foreigners coming into Tokyo as a result of the Olympics is negligible compared to the numbers going in and out on a daily basis. I love a good end-of-the-world scenario as much as anyone. But, gimme a break... What rational benefit would there be in cancelling the Olympics? The only risk of disease arising from the Olympics is the spread of herpes, chlamydia, and ghonorhea in the Olympic village (a small price to pay to party with uber-fit gymnasts...) We've heard these warnings so many times... Ebola, Avian Flu, SARS, MERS, West Nile Virus, Mad Cow Disease, H1N1, Zika Virus, etc., etc.... Wake me when the dead start not staying dead... Now THAT would be a virus I could can get behind. Until then, I fully expect to watch the Olympics this summer (and maybe an episode or two of The Walking Dead), and read through some of these hysterical posts and chuckle.
• tylerjwilk00 7y ago
  The cat is out of the bag so to speak. On a personal level all we can do is hope we recover well and quick, if and when we are exposed. Every day you breath in millions of viruses. You don't die because you have an immune system that has earned you the privilege to survive on this planet. Short of a vaccine we're just waiting for the battle and the reward of a new skill in our immune systems armory. That said, getting sick is terrible and it'd be great if we could nerf nature. I pray for everyone's health and recovery.