nradov

4 ms·

1.
by nradov 5d ago
Good timing. But on the other hand if you had sold AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, AVGO, ADI, KLAC, LRCX, etc at the Internet bubble top then you would have missed out on huge gains since then.
2.
by nradov 5d ago
Periodic component shortages have been a fact of life in the server business forever. Like a key supplier's factory burns down or something. The key thing is being transparent with customers on price, availability, and delivery schedul
3.
by nradov 5d ago
So you're proposing to create a privileged class of investors with MD degrees who are protected from competition and will be able to earn above-market returns on their equity? Why would we want provider organizations to have a higher c
4.
by nradov 5d ago
We'll probably see a few middle-tier countries like France or Japan training their own national LLMs that they can control. Even if it's expensive, this will eventually be just as critical to national sovereignty as having nuclear
5.
by nradov 5d ago
AI can help doctors with the administrative side but insurance companies are also deploying AI. We're seeing an escalating arms race with provider AIs battling against payer AIs. That's only one part of economies of scale. The tec
6.
by nradov 5d ago
Most doctors don't want to be business owners. It used to be that they were kind of forced to operate in partnerships but now most choose to become employees. This might be worse for patients but for better or worse there's no goi
7.
by nradov 5d ago
That's really not true. Studies have shown that there's little correlation between care quality and profitability. In some cases non-profit health systems charge high prices and deliver terrible care quality. The reality is that m
8.
by nradov 5d ago
That's a silly suggestion. The lenders buying that debt know what they're getting into. Those are sophisticated investors. If lenders want to limit what borrowers are allowed to do then there's nothing stopping them from impo
9.
by nradov 5d ago
Not all businesses are obsessed with growth. Many mature businesses are managed for value rather than growth and focus on returning profits to shareholders through dividends or stock buybacks.
10.
by nradov 5d ago
This is ridiculous. Most clinicians prefer to be employees rather than business owners.
11.
by nradov 5d ago
Good luck to you and I sincerely hope that you succeed. It's not a dumb idea. But on the human side many health systems are non-profit, and they generally aren't any cheaper or better quality than their for-profit competition. The
12.
by nradov 8d ago
Testing isn't an effective way to catch most race conditions. Code reviews, static analysis, and rigorous enforcement of concurrent coding standards is usually a better approach.
13.
by nradov 8d ago
LLMs have made it easier than ever so search for things. I remember fumbling around with Google, trying different combinations of search terms and never hitting useful results. Now I can give a vague or even partially wrong prompt to an LLM
14.
by nradov 8d ago
The majority of code has always been proprietary and never published. But there's also more open source code being published than ever before.
15.
by nradov 8d ago
Lawsuits are just one type of legal services. There will also be more contract reviews, more cease-and-desist letters, more patent applications, more regulatory comments, more license applications, etc. Although I do expect legislatures wil
16.
by nradov 8d ago
It'll be like software. The demand for both software and legal services is effectively infinite. If it becomes cheaper to file lawsuits then we'll get more lawsuits, not the same number of lawsuits at a lower price. There will sti
17.
by nradov 8d ago
And free the biglaw junior associates while we're at it!
18.
by nradov 8d ago
Bold of you to assume that I've ever been wrong about anything. But are you unfamiliar with the "Baltimore Stockbroker" confidence scam? The same basic issue applies here.
19.
by nradov 8d ago
Why is it not realistic? The USA is largely populated by millions of immigrants and the descendants of immigrants who just uprooted. My grandparents uprooted themselves from what's now Croatia in the 1930s and never returned. I'm
20.
by nradov 8d ago
I've heard of them. There's no reason to expect that those self-promoting blowhards can predict the future more accurately than random chance. Those who take them seriously are engaging in hero worship and unscientific appeal to a
21.
by nradov 8d ago
Exactly. While there are a few academics who work in private for years and then surprise the world with an amazing breakthrough, most of modern science and mathematics is a collaborate process. Researchers make gradual progress on hard prob
22.
by nradov 8d ago
Just putting a clause in a publication won't prevent it from being used as training data. Information wants to be free. The frontier LLM vendors do sell enterprise licenses which contractually guarantee that your prompts won't be
23.
by nradov 9d ago
The Nordic countries abandoned their failed attempt at socialism decades ago.
24.
by nradov 9d ago
Gary has a huge geographical advantage in being located on the Great Lakes. This really cuts the cost of transport for bulk materials. And it gives them a reliable source of fresh water. It could be a great site for a nuclear power plant. R
25.
by nradov 9d ago
What were your concrete plans then for the thousands of Oracle employees who were fired in 2005, 2006, 2009, 2017, and 2022 before they got ambitious with AI? Mass layoffs at Oracle are nothing new, they've never hesitated to make hu
26.
by nradov 9d ago
It's a multifactorial problem. The decline of heavy manufacturing was one cause of economic stagnation in Detroit. But the failed progressive social policies and lack of effective law enforcement didn't help either. Businesses are
27.
by nradov 9d ago
The notion of using cranes to swap heavy battery packs at sea (even near coastlines) is ludicrous. Some of you guys have never spent much time out on the ocean in bad weather and it shows. Plus the coastlines along much of the Asia-Europe r
28.
by nradov 9d ago
Batteries are already being used for ferries but they're too large and heavy for transoceanic merchant ships. I doubt that operators will be willing to make more frequent port calls just to recharge.
29.
by nradov 9d ago
Longer term I think we'll also use synthetic liquid hydrocarbon fuels manufactured through the Fischer–Tropsch process. People have proposed bringing back nuclear powered merchant ships but that's a non-starter for cost and securi
30.
by nradov 9d ago
In US courts you can sue anyone for anything but you might not win. The US government has sovereign immunity from most civil liability. As for the legal system in Bahrain I have no idea but hypothetically even if Amazon could somehow win a

More ›