sciinfo

8 ms·

1.
by sciinfo 7y ago
The vast majority of people don't have an intuitive understanding of exponential growth. People not trained well in math and science don't even have/know the tools to help them understand it analytically. We need (much) bette
2.
by sciinfo 7y ago
Most severe cases require trained medical staff. Since ~20% of infections requires hospitalization, no healthcare system is prepared for an exponential rise in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Most fatalities are from pneumonia. Lots of details are a
3.
by sciinfo 7y ago
No healthcare treatment in real life can be sufficient for an exponential growth of severe cases that require skilled staff and specialized equipment. Health service ranking focuses on treatment I suppose. We need a different ranking for ep
4.
by sciinfo 7y ago
A hotel speeded up the international outbreak of SARS in 2003. "The Metropole Hotel hastened the international spread of the 2003 SARS outbreak by the index case infecting visitors from Singapore, Vietnam, Canada as well as local peopl
5.
by sciinfo 7y ago
Yes, I think I might have mixed up stats of different kinds (Posting too late at night, sorry). However, the point stands that fatality rates will likely go up a lot if medical resources are overwhelmed. Long-term lung damage is also anothe
6.
by sciinfo 7y ago
If most people don't care to prevent infection, the hospitals and medical resources will soon be overwhelmed, the death rate will surge from 0.5-4% (no exact figure at the moment) to 10-20% like earlier in Wuhan. When viral load in the
7.
by sciinfo 7y ago
The first patient was confirmed after having been intubated for >= 4 days. On average it takes 9 days from infection to ARDS, which requires intubation, according to a Lancet study. She was confirmed 5 days ago (on Feb 23rd). So she coul
8.
by sciinfo 7y ago
It's in fact 1.5 beds per 1000 capita according to World Bank data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.BEDS.ZS
9.
by sciinfo 7y ago
Doctors and nurses are exposed to a much higher viral load than most people. In Wuhan, they may also overwork and have insufficient sleep.
10.
by sciinfo 7y ago
There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. The first hypothesis is likely
11.
by sciinfo 7y ago
I read that South Korea is developing them and it's close to ready. They probably need them for their own people first though. It's a huge opportunity for a startup/company to create a home test kit for COVID-19. Massive glob
12.
by sciinfo 7y ago
I have followed the news closely, the CFR might decrease a bit in Hubei because China has reinforced it with 20,000 medical staff and hospitals. They also have found some better treatments (not a cure, to be clear). The approx. 20% hospital
13.
by sciinfo 7y ago
The doubling time is about 6 days for cases around the world excluding China. Graphs here: https://ncov.r6.no/ This means several people in contact with the unconfirmed infected case may not yet self-isolate and can spread
14.
by sciinfo 7y ago
For people thinking it is just like SARS, MERS, or Swine Flu, check out these graphs: https://ncov.r6.no/
15.
by sciinfo 7y ago
Social distancing, avoiding crowds and certain events, washing hands routinely and before meals, wearing masks when ill would help reduce the spread speed a lot. Wearing masks also helps set a new social norm. It is now common in Taiwan sub
16.
by sciinfo 7y ago
Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College: => Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who with mild cases and don't go to see doctors) => Estimated Case Fata
17.
by sciinfo 7y ago
For people still thinking it is just another SARS, MERS, or Swine Flu, check out these graphs: https://ncov.r6.no/
18.
by sciinfo 7y ago
Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College: => Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who don't go to see doctors) => Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for