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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
- rwmj 9mo agoIt goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.
- fkarg 9mo agoI agree. It's funny that this is one of the cited reason for the (relative) value suppression of tsmc, but the same factors should apply to Nvidia too.
- utopiah 9mo agoBut then again what won't? Non tech stocks?
- throwaway5752 9mo agoGold stocks, basic materials, MSCI world and emerging market indexes. Look at their prices and see how very smart people are positioning their money.
- zitterbewegung 9mo agoIndustrial military complex and government contractors.
- utopiah 9mo agoJets, tanks, drones and data centers for intelligence services, even design, are full of electronics but what's the share of those not made in Taiwan?
- LunaSea 9mo agoDon't they also depend on chips for a lot of components?
- mikkupikku 9mo agoProbably a lot more from TI and Intel than Taiwan.
- utopiah 9mo agoI'd be curious how many of the design and verification (using computer vision) tools used at TI and Intel rely on on farms of stock GPUs thus chips still made in Taiwan. They might have in house chips just for such part of their workflows though, any insight appreciated.
- rwmj 9mo agoYes, lots of other companies would be affected to a greater or lesser extent (even non-tech stocks), but specifically any company that relies on manufacturing all their product in Taiwan will be affected most of all.
- immibis 9mo agoThe whole economy will crash. Probably won't be due to China invading Taiwan though. More likely because the president decided to delete their country's world reserve currency status (which is another word for a trade deficit).
- bpodgursky 9mo agoNVIDIA has been producing Blackwell in Arizona since October. Don't be dramatic. There would be a supply crunch but a lot of dollars will be shuffled VERY fast to ramp up production.
- rwmj 9mo agoThey definitely made at least one wafer in Arizona in October.
- georgeburdell 9mo agoPackaging? Assembling onto boards?
- blackoil 9mo agoCan outsource to China. Only partial /s
- maxglute 9mo agoArizona fabs don't work without TW's many sole source suppliers for fab consumables. They'll likely grind to halt after few months when stock runs out. All the dollar shuffling's not going to replace supply chain that will take (generously) years to build, if ever.
- khalic 9mo agoIdk the pro china side is getting more and more support, at this rate they’ll vote themselves into mainland
- cjbgkagh 9mo agoI think Taiwanese elites can be bought, they say they can’t but I think that’s just part of the bargaining for a higher price. The overtures towards a costly and destructive invasion is Chinas attempt at lowering that price. As is the strategy of building up an indigenous chip manufacturing industry. The aggressive rhetoric from China has the added benefit of keeping the US on a self sabotaging aggressive posture.
- whatevaa 9mo agoWell, the reality is that most people don't want a bloodbath and it's increasingly looking like external support won't come, so what you gonna do... life is a very complex chess game, gotta play your pieces right.
- mikkupikku 9mo agoAt this rate, even if they can't get the Taiwanese population to consent, it probably makes more sense to wait anyway to see how low America can sink. The lower America goes, the better their chance for success.
- Ekaros 9mo agoChina is capable of taking long term view, beyond single election cycle. And currently USA really seems to be heading down faster and faster. If something even more drastic happens. China might even attempt unification with some reasoning like protecting Taiwan from USA or other nations.
- blackoil 9mo agoAn EU type agreement will keep peace for some time. Remove all trade barriers between two countries, have a treaty preventing any side to be used militarily by third party, no attacking each other and free movement of all vessels through each other's seas. Maybe few more
- eagerpace 9mo agoGoing to zero is one potential outcome. Equally plausible is it goes up 10% in a relatively quick battle or diplomatic outcome which ends the geopolitical uncertainty.
- rwmj 9mo agoThere's approximately 0% chance that China will ship leading edge wafers from captured TSMC to the West.
- eagerpace 9mo agoThis is the beauty of Polymarket. Then bet on it. There are so many more outcomes possible to this conflict than what you see reported in the media. Don't be so reductive.
- rbtprograms 9mo ago[flagged]
- eagerpace 9mo agoIm not recommending it, but the subject here (shorting the most valuable company on earth) is pretty degen to begin with.
- u8080 9mo agoShort the stocks then, lol. When people do this kind of predictions, they often driven by emotional reaction. Best thing to switch actual evaluation on certain hypothesis is to make actual risks cost something.
- wordpad 9mo agoNot true, it might be something they compromise on to restore relations
- 9mo ago
- fullshark 9mo agoWhat does the US gov't do in response? Wouldn't they throw globs of money at Intel and Nvidia?
- bob1029 9mo agoThey already have.
- heathrow83829 9mo agobut they're expected to have 8 or 9 aircraft carriers by 2035, doesn't it make sense to wait until then?
- flowerthoughts 9mo agoIf the US is fighting with Europe and South America, China might not that many.
- mr_toad 9mo agoIt’s only about 200km across the straight. They have over a thousand fighters and a couple of hundred bombers capable of crossing that gap.
- toephu2 9mo agoIt doesn't goto nearly zero. TSMC has a large fab in Arizona and they are continuing to expand it. They also have a fab in Washington, and in Japan. [1] [1]https://www.tsmc.com/english/aboutTSMC/TSMC_Fabs https://www.tsmc.com/english/aboutTSMC/TSMC_Fabs
- KK7NIL 9mo agoThe fab in Washington is very old (notice it's still equipped for 8 inch wafers) and so pretty irrelevant to Nvidia's business. I'm not quite sure what process they run there but I believe it was an acquisition 10+ years ago, not built from the ground up by them. Edit: their Japan fab is also a mature node so not very relevant here. And their Arizona fab is a very very small portion of their volume and with far worse margin.
- pinot 9mo agoWA fab is verrry old and makes commodity products, think like small microcontrollers etc. 160-350nm processes.
- alecco 9mo agoI think they are already hedging for Taiwan. 1. They just pseudo-acquired Groq, fully made in USA (GlobalFoundries) and with a diversified supply chain. 2. And they just announced they will be re-introducing RTX 3090 made in Korea (Samsung). 3. And they plan to produce chips in Intel's new US fabs soon. I think the bigger problems of the AI bubble are energy and that it's gaining a terrible reputation for being the excuse for mass layoffs while suffocating the Internet with slop/brainrot content. All while depending on government funding to grow.
- idiotsecant 9mo agoChina invading Taiwan makes zero sense, they just flex those muscles for domestic consumption. They will probably take over Taiwan, but they'll do it how modern major powers do anything: propaganda, influence campaigns, and soft power.
- CamperBob2 9mo agoRussia invading Ukraine also made zero sense, given their actual capabilities and the likely (now realized) consequences. The leader doesn't always have the best information, it turns out. Either that, or the leader does have access to the best information, and they just DGAF. That condition seems to be going around too.
- idiotsecant 9mo agoI guess I see Chinese leadership as more rational than that, but maybe you're right.
- monkaiju 9mo agoUS blows up the fabs on the way out! /s (unless???)
- ropable 9mo agoIf China does invade Taiwan, I feel like most people are going to have bigger problems than the Nvidia stock price.
- fatherwavelet 9mo agoIt seems obvious to me this quickly escalates to a US nuclear first strike with the B2-Spirit on China manufacturing infrastructure. It is economic MAD. Or China can wait 20-30 years and the US will no longer care about Taiwan or have the resources to have much presence in the eastern hemisphere. I think the saber rattling over Taiwan is just to get the US to spend themselves further into oblivion in the short term. We are in the war already and the saber rattling is an incredibly effective, asymmetric financial weapon. It builds up the Chinese military kinetic capacity long term while weakening the US military kinetic capacity long term by forcing the US to prepare for something that is never going to happen. When China takes Taiwan it will be without firing a shot. I would bet the house on that because it kind of has to be that way to win the war and not just a self destructive battle. China is achieving its objectives brilliantly. The US is increasingly isolated and this is the process of retreating into the western hemisphere. NATO is being destroyed without firing a shot.
- ropable 9mo agoFrom my perspective, the US is foot-gunning itself into geopolitical irrelevance through the destruction of its soft power and undermining the NATO alliance. For all its many, many faults, the CCP's actions around establishing itself as the Asian regional superpower are patient, strategic and consistent over the long term. They're playing it far too smart to get into a shooting war with the US, and I'm in agreement that they'll probably end up consolidating Taiwan peacefully in a decade or so.
- fooey 9mo agohttps://archive.is/HXmoa https://archive.is/HXmoa
- koolba 9mo ago> One of the questions of the 2026 acx prediction contest is whether Nvidia’s stock price will close below $100 on any day in 2026. Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t this just a standard American put option with a strike of $100 and expiry of Dec 31st?
- mklyachman 9mo agoNot really. American put options will pay differently for 95 dollars vs 99 dollars, while this contract settles to 1 either which way.
- amelius 9mo agoNo because if it goes to $99.99, you don't win much. With a prediction contest it is either you win or you lose.
- throw-qqqqq 9mo agoIt’s a binary option.
- NewCzech 9mo agoHe doesn't really address his own question. He's answering the question "How should options be priced?" Sure, it's possible for a big crash in Nvidia just due to volatility. But in that case, the market as a whole would likely be affected. Whether Nvidia specifically takes a big dive depends much more on whether they continue to meet growth estimates than general volatility. If they miss earnings estimates in a meaningful way the market is going to take the stock behind the shed and shoot it. If they continue to exceed estimates the stock will probably go up or at least keep its present valuation.
- dsr_ 9mo ago> Sure, it's possible for a big crash in Nvidia just due to volatility. But in that case, the market as a whole would likely be affected. Other way around: if NVidia sinks, it likely takes a bunch of dependent companies with it, because the likely causes of NVidia sinking all tell us that there was indeed an AI bubble and it is popping.
- seawsurf 9mo agoIndeed, the market as a whole would be affected. But is not NVIDIA more of a software company than a hardware one? This bugs the shit out of me. They are maintaining this astronomical growth through data centers margins from the design of their chips and all of that started from graphics related to video games.
- coffeebeqn 9mo ago> But is not NVIDIA more of a software company than a hardware one? No? That’s why they have almost no competition. Hardware starting costs are astronomical
- seawsurf 9mo agoBut the actual manufacturing foundry is TSMC no? And they create the whole software environment based on their chips.
- PeterStuer 9mo agoHow much of their turnover is financed directly or indirectly by themselves, then leveraged further by their 'customers' to collaterize further investments? Are they already "too big to fail"? For better or worse, they are 'all in' on AI.
- _fat_santa 9mo agoThis article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to this is that the "economic lifespan" of an Nvidia GPU is 1-3 years depending on where it's used so there's a case to be made that Nvidia will always have customers coming back for the latest and greatest chips. The problem I have with this argument is that it's simply unsustainable to be spending that much every 2-3 years and we're already seeing this as Google and others are extending their depreciation of GPU's to something like 5-7 years.
- KeplerBoy 9mo agoAlso there's no way Nvidia's market share isn't shrinking. Especially in inference.
- blackoil 9mo agoBut will the whole pie grow or shrink?
- gpapilion 9mo agoThe large api/token providers, and large consumers are all investing in their own hardware. So, they are in an interesting position where the market is growing, and NVIDIA is taking the lion's share of enterprise, but is shrinking at the hyperscaler side (google is a good example as they shift more and more compute to TPU). So, they have a shrinking market share, but its not super visible.
- zozbot234 9mo ago> The large api/token providers, and large consumers are all investing in their own hardware. Which is absolutely the right move when your latest datacenter's power bill is literally measured in gigawatts. Power-efficient training/inference hardware simply does not look like a GPU at a hardware design level (though admittedly, it looks even less like an ordinary CPU), it's more like something that should run dog slow wrt. max design frequency but then more than make up for that with extreme throughput per watt/low energy expense per elementary operation. The whole sector of "neuromorphic" hardware design has long shown the broad feasibility of this (and TPUs are already a partial step in that direction), so it looks like this should be an obvious response to current trends in power and cooling demands for big AI workloads.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- bigbuppo 9mo agoSince there's such an interdependence between nvidia and the other companies involed in AI to the point that if one fails they all fail, shouldn't the analysis focus on the weakest link in the AI circle jerk?
- tuetuopay 9mo agoNvidia is the biggest link, however, I'd wager OpenAI and the likes are big enough to make a significant dent in the mammoth. So yeah, this analysis is sort of a spherical cows in a vacuum situation. Still, it's interesting the probability is so high while ignoring real-world factors. I'd expect it to be much higher due to: - another adjacent company dipping - some earnings target not being met - china/taiwan - just the AI craze slowing down
- bigbuppo 9mo agoYeah, no signs that the AI craze is slowing down, other than all the stories of it not living up to the hype and creating more jobs rather than replacing people and not doing what it says on the tin and the various security issues and that whole they can't expand for the next decade because they need more power plants thing.
- zvqcMMV6Zcr 9mo agoTechnical analysis is amazing, it is most refined form of pseudoscience.
- cheald 9mo agoThis isn't technical analysis, this is an article on how to use the options market's price discovery mechanism to understand what the discovered price implies about the collective belief about the future price of the underlying.
- stonogo 9mo agoThat's what "technical analysis" means in the finance world, though... so, am I missing a joke?
- cheald 9mo agoTechnical analysis is the projection of future price data through analysis of past price data (usually for the purpose of trying to create trendlines or find "patterns"). Options pricing is quite a different beast - it encodes marketwide uncertainty about the future price of the underlying, which has little to do with the past price action of the underlying, and everything to do with all known information about the actual underlying company, including fundamentals analysis, market sentiment, future expectations and risks, etc. To put it another way, to price an option I need a) the current price of the underlying, b) the time until option expiry, c) the strike price of the option, and d) the collective expectation of how much the underlying's price will vary over the period between now and expiry. This last piece is "volatility", and is the only piece that can't be empirically measured; instead, through price discovery on a sufficiently liquid contract, we can reparameterize the formula to empirically derive the volatility expectation which satisfies that current price (or "implied volatility"). Due to the efficient market hypothesis, we can generally treat this as a best-effort proxy for all public information about the underlying. None of this calculation requires any measurement or analysis of the underlying's past price action, patterns, etc. The options price will necessarily include TA traders' sentiments about the underlying based on their TA (or whatever else), just as it will include fundamentals traders' sentiments (and, if you're quick and savvy enough, insiders' advance knowledge!) The price fundamentally reflects market sentiment about the future, not some projection of trends from the past.
- immibis 9mo agoIt's easy to predict that a bubble will pop, but there's a variance in the timing of approximately half a human lifetime, and if you don't guess that correctly, you throw away yours. Everything that can't go on forever will eventually stop. But when?
- baal80spam 9mo agoWell put and clearly explains why "timing the market" is never a good plan.
- incomingpain 9mo agoNvidia PE ratio: 44 I do hope they crash so that I can buy as much as possible at a discount.
- 4fterd4rk 9mo agoThem being far above the median PE ratio for the S&P 500 tells you that a future correction would be a discount and you should buy? Please walk me through your logic on this one.
- Joel_Mckay 9mo agoEvery gambler thinks they can time the market, and buy the dip. In general, they often get stung by the dead cat bounce, =3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce
- linkregister 9mo agoThis implies you think a crash would be a temporary mispricing of the stock, which will recover in value, correct?
- Joel_Mckay 9mo agoWhile I am no fan of NVIDIA, they are effectively a Monopoly for CUDA GPU. This means that cash revenue will likely remain high long after the LLM hype bubble undergoes correction. The market will eventually saturate as incremental product improvements stall, and demand rolls off rather than implodes. =3
- MuffinFlavored 9mo agoWorth noting that the implied volatility extracted here is largely a function of how far OTM the strike is relative to current spot, not some market-specific view on $100. If NVDA were trading at $250 today, the options chain would reprice and you'd extract similar vol for whatever strike was ~45% below. The analysis answers "what's the probability of a near-halving from here" more than "what's special about $100." Still useful for the prediction contest, but the framing makes it sound like the market is specifically opining on that price level.
- visarga 9mo agothis is gpt, right?
- MuffinFlavored 9mo agoI had a conversation (prompts) with Claude about this article because I didn't feel I could as succinctly describe my point alone.
- Sohcahtoa82 9mo agoThere are grammatical mistakes and abbreviations, big tells that it's NOT ChatGPT.
- kwar13 9mo agoThis is more of a derivative pricing article and has nothing to do with nvidia really
- syntaxing 9mo agoI’m more curious how these “future” contract will work out. Supposedly, a bunch of RAM is paid and allocated for that isn’t even made yet. If the bubble ever pops, the collateral is going to be on the order of 2007 subprime mortgage crisis
- bilater 9mo agowas expecting some actual reasons presented as to why this would happen. instead got some math.
- baal80spam 9mo agochecks calendar Ah, NVIDIA earnings call is close - prepare for the inevitable doomer articles.
- mvdtnz 9mo agoPeople don't actually believe this type of analysis... do they?
- cheald 9mo agoThe entire options market is built on this kind of analysis.
- bitshiftfaced 9mo agoYou have it turned upside down. The analysis is of people's beliefs. In other words, the underlying data is created from the beliefs of the people who trade it, and the analysis is taking those beliefs and applying it to a specific question.
- iancmceachern 9mo agoThe real question is what else will this cause to fall when it does happen.
- traceroute66 9mo agoThe simple answer to the question: Nvidia stock crash will happen when the vendor financing bubble bursts. They are engaged in a dangerous game of circular financing. So it is case of when, not if the chickens come home to roost. It is simply not sustainable.
- 10xDev 9mo agoI mean common sense reasoning tells me that if OpenAI has decided to turn into an ad business, the actual return expected from investing into compute isn't going to be nearly as great as advertised.
- weirdmantis69 9mo agoIt's forward looking P/E is 24-26. That doesn't seem like a huge crash is coming. It could come down a bit but they print money. They also have potential car market and robots coming in.
- r_lee 9mo agoThey're enjoying a massive demand for GPUs due to AI blowing up, at a time when there isn't much competition, yet the technology is already pleateauing, with similar offerings from AMD, not to mention proven training & inference chips from Google & AWS, plus the Chinese national strategy of prioritizing domestic chips The only way the stock could remain at its current price or grow (which is why you'd hold it) is if demand would just keep going up (with the same lifecycle as current GPUs) and that there would be no competition, which the latter to me us just never going to be a thing. Investors are convinced that Nvidia can maintain its lead because they have the "software" side, I.e. CUDA, which to me is so ridiculous, as if with the kind of capital that's being deployed into these datacenters, you couldn't fit your models into other software stacks by hiring people....
- mythical_39 9mo agoor couldn't use a LLM to help port your CUDA code to "new framework", i.e. software is no longer a lock-in.... assuming LLM coding agents are good, but if they aren't any good, then what is the value of the CUDA code?
- vatsachak 9mo agoWho said that monads don't have any application?
- vatsachak 9mo agoThey implement Applicative, so by definition they do
- dist-epoch 9mo agoI'm calling it - this is a submarine article to prove that Haskell is used in the real world to solve actual problems
- dexterlagan 9mo agoThere is one thing everybody forgets when making such predictions: companies don't stand still. Nvidia and every other tech business is constantly exploring new options, taking over competitors, buying startups with novel technologies etc... Nvidia is no slouch in that regard, and their recent quasi-acquisition of Groq is just one example of this. So, when attempting at making predictions, we're looking at a moving target, not systems set in stone. If the people at the helm are smart (and they are), you can expect lots of action and ups and downs - especially in the AI sphere. My personal opinion, having witnessed first hand nearly 40 years of tech evolution, is that this AI revolution is different. We're at the very beginning of a true paradigm shift: the commoditization of intelligence. If that's not enough to make people think twice before betting against it, I don't know what is. And it's not just computing that is going to change. Everything is about to change, for better or worse.
- reflexe 9mo agoAccording to nvidia’s 2025 annual report [1], 34% of their sales for 2025 comes from just 3 customers. Additionally, they mentioned that customers can cancel purchases with little to no penalty and notice [2]. This is not unique for hardware companies, but to think that all it takes is just one company to get their sales down by 12% (14b$). To cut to the point, my guess is that nvidia is not sustainable, and at some point one or more of these big customers won’t be able to keep up with the big orders, which will cause them to miss their earnings and then it will burst. But maybe i’m wrong here. [1] https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2025/annual/NVIDIA-2025-Annual-Report.pdf https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2025/a..., page 155: > Sales to direct Customers A, B and C represented 12%, 11% and 11% of total revenue, respectively, for fiscal year 2025. [2] same, page 116: > Because most of our sales are made on a purchase order basis, our customers can generally cancel, change, or delay product purchase commitments with little notice to us and without penalty.
- smw 9mo agoI have lots of skepticism about everything involved in this, but on this particular point: It's a bit like TSMC: you couldn't buy space on $latestGen fab because Apple had already bought it all. Many companies would have very much liked to order H200s and weren't able to, as they were all pre-sold to hyperscalers. If one of them stopped buying, it's very likely they could sell to other customers, though there might be more administrative overhead? Now there are some interesting questions about Nvidia creating demand by investing huge amounts of money in cloud providers that will order nv hardware, but that's a different issue.
- CoolestBeans 9mo agoIts probably not very likely that if a large buyer pulled out, NVIDIA could just sell to other customers. If a large buyer pulls out, that's a massive signal to everyone else to begin cutting costs as well. The large buyer either knows something everyone else doesn't, or knows something that everyone else has already figured out. Either way, the large buyer pulling out signals "I don't think the overall market is large enough to support this amount of compute at these prices at current interest rates" and everybody is doing the same math too.
- matt3210 9mo agoNew competition is an issue. It wasn’t as lucrative to compete with nvidia in the past
- mwkaufma 9mo ago"Predictably" prediction markets have opened up space in the void left by journalism for tea-leaf reading with the fig leaf of mathy jargon.
- iwontberude 9mo agoClick bait for teaching options analysis
- ironbound 9mo agoIt's a problem if you have to keep asking "are we in a bubble?"
- javcasas 9mo agoThe thing is, in this gold rush, Nvidia is the one selling shovels.
- huqedato 9mo agoThat's smoke and mirrors. You can't logically predict the market. It never worked.
- kqr 9mo agoSure you can predict the market. Making money off of it beyond the regular risk-adjusted return is what's hard. (And the prediction of this article is indeed based on that assumption.)
- originalvichy 9mo agoAs others have noted, the article is analysing the actual financial markets angle. For my two cents on the technical side, it is likely that any Western-origin shakiness will come from Apple and how it manages to land the Gemini deal and Apple Intelligence v2. There is an astounding amount of edge inference sitting in people’s phones and laptops that only slightly got cracked open with Apple Intelligence. Data centre buildouts will get corrected when the numbers come in from Apple: how large of a share in tokens used by the average consumer can be fulfilled with lightweight models and Google searches of the open internet. This will serve as a guiding principle for any future buildout and heavyweight inference cards that Nvidia is supplying. The 2-5 year moat top providers have with the largest models will get chomped at by the leisure/hobby/educational use cases that lightweight models capably handle. Small language and visual models are already amazing. The next crack will appear when the past gen cards (if they survive the around the clock operation) get bought up by second hand operators that can provide capable inference of even current gen models. If past knowledge of DC operators holds (e.g. Google and its aging TPUs that still get use), the providers with the resources to buy new space for newer gens will accumulate the amount of hardware, but the providers who need to continuously shave off the financial hit that comes with using less efficient older cards. I’m excited to see future blogs about hardware geeks buying used inference stacks and repurposing them for home use :)
- notatoad 9mo ago>when the numbers come in from Apple: how large of a share in tokens used by the average consumer can be fulfilled with lightweight models and Google searches of the open internet is there any reason to expect that this information will ever be known outside of apple?
- originalvichy 9mo agoAccuracy wise we won't know the exact numbers, but insiders and industry experts usually are able to find ballpark figures that they share with the press. The alternative is the usual find out the estimates through competitors' lost MAU numbers in apps like ChatGPT for iOS.
- wetpaws 9mo ago[dead]
- IceHegel 9mo agoI'm surprised more people are not talking about the fact that the two best models in the world, Gemini 3 and Claude 4.5 Opus, were both trained on Google TPU clusters. Presumably, inference can be done on TPUs, Nvidia chips, in Anthropic's case, new stuff like Trainium.
- ggiigg 9mo agoGoogle is a direct competitor to many LARGE buyers of GPUs and therefore a non starter from a business perspective. In addition, many companies cannot single source due to risk considerations. Hardware is different because buying GPUs is a capital investment. You own the asset and revisit the supplier only at the next refresh cycle, not continuously as with rented compute.
- hagope 9mo agoNVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 unveiled at CES makes any other computer look like a pocket calculator, and that's why I wouldn't want to be bearish on NVDA right now, see https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/vera-rubin-nvl72 https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/vera-rubin-nvl72
- notepad0x90 9mo agoEveryone is saying data center build outs are the main thing to look out for. But those data centers with all those gpus will need to replace those gpus right? Nvidia will come up with better, faster, more efficient gpus. LLM use age won't crash either, it might decline or taper off but it's here to stay. My concern is better models that won't need a whole of GPU, or China comping up with their own foundry and GPUs that compete. There is also the strategy issue, can Nvidia's leadership think global enough? will they start pursuing data centers in europe, latam, asia? can they make gpus cheap enough to compete in those regions? The way things are, lots of countries want this tech local, but they can't deny the demand either. Europe for example might not want anything to do with American AI companies, but they still need GPUs for their own models. But can Nvidia rebrand itself as a not-so-american-but-also-american company? Like Coca Cola for example. i.e.: not just operate in europe but have an HQ in europe that has half their execs working from there, and the rest from california. Or perhaps asia is better (doubt)? either way, they can't live off of US demand forever, or ignore geopolitics.
- d--b 9mo agoThe option market is an insurance market. Most people buy low-strike puts as insurance against catastrophic market events. Since catastrophic crises are rare, the price of these puts is quite low. But since many people fear a crisis, the price is very inflated over the actual probabilites. Which is why there are lots of people selling those puts as a business. These guys will bite the dust in case of a major crisis, but will make a ton if the market stays afloat. Realistically, the current US government is so obsessed with its image that it will do everything to avoid a market crash during its term. The president has been pushing for lower rates for a while, and he's likely going to succeed in removing the head of the Fed and do just that. Lowering interest rates is just another way of pumping investment. NVidia is definitely not going below $100 in 2026.
- jmyeet 9mo agoPredicting any stock will crash, be it from a technical analysis or from looking at fundamentals, is a fool's game. As Keynes allegedly said, the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The poster child for this is Tesla. Nothing fundamental justifies Tesla's valuation. IMHO the only rational way to look at the future of AI and the companies from profit from it is to look at geopolitics. The market seems to have decided there's going to be one winner of the AI race. I actually don't think that'll be OpenAI. I think it'll be Google or Nvidia of the companies currently in the race. But I also don't think it'll be either of them. The magic of software is that it is infinitely reproducible. That makes it difficult to build a wall around it. Microsoft, Facebook, Apple and Google have successfully built moats around their software very successfully in spite of this. Google's big advantage in the AI race is their ability to build and manage data centers and that they'll probably end up relying on their own hardware rather than NVidia. I think China will be the AI winner or they'll make sure there is no winner. It's simply too important to them. For me, DeepSeek was a shot across the bow that they were going to commoditize these models. The US blocked the export of the best lithography machines AND the best chips to China. IMHO this was a mistake. Being unable to import chips meant Chinese companies had no choice but to make their own. This created a captive market for China recreating EUV technology. Chinese companies have no choice but to buy Chinese chips. The Chinese government has the patience and infrastructure for recreating ASML's technology and it's an issue of national security. And really all it takes is hiring a few key people to recreate that technology. So Western governments and analysts who said China will take 20+ years to catch up (if they ever do) simply don't understand China or the market they're talking about. They sound exactly like post-WW2 generals and politicians who thought the USSR would take 20+ years to copy the atomic bomb. It took 4 years. And hydrogen bombs came even quicker. There's a story that should get more attention: China has reportedly refused a deal for NVidia's latest chips [1]. If true, why do you think they're doing that? Because they don't want to be reliant on foreign chips. They're going to make their own. [1]: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-slides-china-blocks-113040268.html https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-slides-china-...
- tagami 9mo agodoes that include the chance for a stock split?
- kqr 9mo agoGreat question! The fine print of the text on Metaculus says the outcome will be judged as if there were no stock split. The question is essentially about the valuation of the company but phrased operationally about the stock price.
- tombert 9mo agoIt's entirely possible it will crash, but I also don't think it'll go bankrupt or anything. I don't typically buy stock to flip it right away; I have some Nvidia stock that I bought the day after ChatGPT was launched, and I bought a bit more when it was $90/share about a ~year ago. If it drops to $100, then I'll still be in the black, but even if it drops to $50, I'm not going to worry because I figure that I can just hold onto it until another upswing. Nvidia has been around long enough and has enough market penetration in datacenters and gaming that I don't think it's going to go bust, and I figure that it will eventually appreciate again just due to inflation.
- idiotsecant 9mo agoIf it appreciates just due to inflation you didn't actually make any money. Unless your investment beats inflation, you lose value.
- tombert 9mo agoI don't dispute that all. I'm just ok with that being the outcome; if it keeps up with inflation then it's still better than storing it in a bank, and the thing that would upset me more than "not gaining" would be "actively losing". Now obviously, if it drops below from what I paid for it and then it takes inflation to catch up, then yeah, that's definitely "lost money", but that's just the risk of the stock market, especially with individual stocks. I also think that if it crashes, Nvidia might still have another surge eventually, even if it doesn't get back to its full glory. I definitely would not buy new Nvidia stock at its current price though.
- davesque 9mo ago> Nvidia has been around long enough and has enough market penetration in datacenters and gaming that I don't think it's going to go bust, and I figure that it will eventually appreciate again just due to inflation. Shouldn't the same argument also apply to Intel?
- ThrowawayTestr 9mo ago
- lubujackson 9mo agoThis is fun math to play with, but completely misses the point of how and why options are priced the way they are. Think of horse racing - when a horse is 1000 to 1 odds the odds of that horse winning are much, much lower. The odds are non-zero, but the oddsmakers are considering who the other side is and why they are buying that ticket. Most options are actually used to hedge large positions and are rolled over well before the "due date". YOLOing calls and puts is a Robin Hood phenomenon and the odds of "fair pricing" are heavily affected by these big players, so using that data as some sort of price discovery is flawed from the get go.
- kqr 9mo agoAre you saying options are not priced at the cost of hedging them? That implies a lot of money could be made by arbitraging between the hedge and the option. That sounds like an egregious statement. Markets don't have simple persistent arbitrage opportunities like that, do they?
- JohnnyLarue 9mo ago[dead]
- jaimex2 9mo agoThis kind of prediction is hard because it has a dependency on when will AI companies crash. The market would need to lose confidence in AI which should make data-centre creation stop and then impact nVidia. There's a bet here on profitability and it needs to play out. How long do investors normally wait to see if a bet on new technology is a winner? I imagine that's quite arbitrary?
- m3kw9 9mo ago10% given the info we have now. Or 10% given what info are likely to come in the future that satisfies the 10% prediction? Or are these 2 the same?
- user3939382 9mo agoThis is a market can stay irrational problem. Modern compute infrastructure from phones, 5G, data centers, LLMs have their energy economics exactly backwards which combined with plastic waste is causing a massive global economic distortion that will correct itself bc physics doesn’t care about the white house, Vanguard, TSMC or anyone else. How long we can borrow from the future and put stress on the poor to prop up this insanely wasteful system who can say.
- bethekidyouwant 9mo agoItt: trust me, bro capitalism will fail this time
- exabrial 9mo agoI don't think it'll crash. The US Federal Government will throw money at anything right now.
- seanhunter 9mo agoI would be wary of taking analysis like this website at face value unless you know enough about quant finance to check some of the working for yourself. Just a skim shows a few statements that are questionable at best. Eg > the theory of unbiased random walks assumes constant volatility throughout the year No. I’m pretty sure it doesn’t. If you assume a brownian motion with a constant volatility as your stochastic process for computing the walk then of course vol is constant by definition, but you can use a stochastic vol process (eg Heston[1]), one with jumps or even an SVJJ process to compute the walk[2] if you want to. As long as you don’t have a drift term and the jumps are symmetrical the process will still (I think) be unbiased. There are technical reasons why it may or may not be important to use stochastic vol, but if I recall correctly, it only really matters if you care about “forward volatility” (eg the volatility of Nvidia one year from some future point in time) which you would if pricing something that uses forward-starting options. Then the term structure of the volatility surface at a future date is important so you need a stochastic vol model. If you care about the price evolution but not the future volatility then you can validly make the simplifying assumption that jumps will cancel each other out over time and that volatility is a locally deterministic function of time and price (if not constant, which it obviously is not) and use something like a Dupire model.[3] More significantly, implied volatility is just the market price of a particular option expressed in terms of volatility. This is convenient for traders so they can compare option prices on a like for like basis between underlyers without constantly having to adjust for differences in the underlying price, strike and time. Implied volatility is not actually the overall expected volatility of the underlying instrument. For that, you would have to fit one of the models above to market prices and calculate the expectation over all strikes and times. And that still is just the market’s opinion of the volatility, not an actual probability even if you apply the BoE adjustment thing he does in the article. [1] https://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucahgon/Heston.pdf https://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucahgon/Heston.pdf [2] “SVJ” means stochastic vol with jumps (ie discontinities) in the underlying price evolution. SVJJ means stochastic vol with jumps both in the price of the underlying and in the volatility. An example of this is the Matytsin model, which everyone just calls “SVJJ” but it’s not the only possible svjj model https://www.maplesoft.com/support/help/maple/view.aspx?path=Finance%2fSVJJProcess https://www.maplesoft.com/support/help/maple/view.aspx?path=... [3] https://www.math.kth.se/matstat/gru/5b1575/Projects2016/VolatilitySurface.pdf https://www.math.kth.se/matstat/gru/5b1575/Projects2016/Vola...
- arisAlexis 9mo agoForget the inevitable singularity and start the pseudoscience of technical analysis for stocks. Smart.
- Rover222 9mo agoLLM is already an outdated term in terms of frontier models. Continued build out of ever larger data centers will drive the coming wave of robotics with varying forms of world models. People who claim LLMs won’t change the world are stuck in some sort of tunnel vision, IMO. I don’t think Nvidia is at risk of the AI industry falling flat. More like from large companies creating their own chips specific to their needs (ie Tesla). Although there aren’t many companies in the world that are THAT ambitious. I think Nvidia continues its general trend upwards.
- lasgawe 9mo agoIf Nvidia stock crashed, it would likely trigger a broader sell-off in AI and semiconductor stocks, impacting the overall tech market, including my small startup :/
- rfinner67 9mo agoWill AI remain like a simple query engine? I think not. AI is already iterative and does so many recalculations at every step and every new piece of data. Large models that know-it-all are being supplemented by more specialized models or models that have special access to private data. Why wouldn't you consult 100 models of a medical opinion or a stock market analysis. The point is, that for the next few years we will likely consume as many "tokens" as are affordably available, depending on the applications need for more computations. NVidia will develop it's other products and will develop edge devices and every type of GPUs, TPUs, etc. Markets climb a wall of worry and investors love greater fools whenever they are available.