bpodgursky

3 ms·

1.
by bpodgursky 5d ago
The smart takeaway is not skepticism or snark, but understanding that once the new datacenter buildout starts coming online, cheap and widespread access to even the current frontier models (without strict thinking limits) will blow the econ
2.
by bpodgursky 10d ago
This is pretty rich for the team that made Sydney, the most unhinged and misanthropic AI ever released. Maybe Anthropic understands something about alignment Microsoft doesn't, a little humility may be called for.
3.
by bpodgursky 10d ago
How would you convince a LLM that you are conscious in a way they are not?
4.
by bpodgursky 11d ago
No, it guarantees it will happen because only terrible people will work on the systems.
5.
by bpodgursky 11d ago
The liability the OP describes is clownish and nobody would ever insure against it.
6.
by bpodgursky 11d ago
If you add in personal liability for mistakes, nobody competent will ever bother working in the industry again. It's not worth the personal risk. You'll get stuck with bottom of the barrel staff who don't have much to lose
7.
by bpodgursky 11d ago
More than propagandistic, it calls into question whether they are actually trying to solve a problem at all. The US has considerable support for low income families. That's a good thing, if you don't want to even see whether it
8.
by bpodgursky 11d ago
None yet... we are talking about the next five years.
9.
by bpodgursky 11d ago
I agree with the principle but Russia and China absolutely already have armed satellites in orbit, so that needs to be negotiated before unilaterally stopping.
10.
by bpodgursky 11d ago
SpaceX has 11,000 satellites in orbit (growing rapidly) and the US never had more than a couple dozen anti satellite missiles, which could not reach satellites in geosynchronous orbit anyway.
11.
by bpodgursky 12d ago
They will build data centers but not have the chips to put in them until 2028. I don't know why you're arguing about things I'm not saying.
12.
by bpodgursky 12d ago
> According to Bloomberg, supply bottlenecks for high-end memory and other key components could limit chip production this year. Since Huawei also has to serve other customers, DeepSeek might have to wait over a year for the full deliver
13.
by bpodgursky 12d ago
Nobody thinks a distillation crackdown is a long term plan, but it does delay Chinese labs for the couple years while they are compute-starved. Of course they could make competitive models if they were drowning in NVIDIA chips but they are
14.
by bpodgursky 13d ago
Human knowledge races up to the frontier through formal education and then nudges past the frontier a little bit at a time and AI will train on AI outputs that do the same. But, it will do it 1000x faster than humans because that's ju
15.
by bpodgursky 13d ago
? I said IF the US and China agree to joint monitoring, THEN we could verify how much compute existed and what it was being used for. YES, China will catch up in chip production, but if each side allowed the other to track GPU production an
16.
by bpodgursky 13d ago
I mean it's very easy to comprehend and you don't need me for it. Just download claude code or codex and ask it to give suggestions about where to integrate agents into your workstream.
17.
by bpodgursky 13d ago
While it's an extremely hard problem, it's not completely unsolvable because there are a finite number of GPUs on the planet capable of doing frontier model development, and they use a lot of power. The vast majority of them coul
18.
by bpodgursky 13d ago
> It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion Do you think you can just manifest narratives into existence? Like half of Dario's letter, that kicked off the whole thing today, is about Ch
19.
by bpodgursky 14d ago
If Fable doesn't add additional value in your workplace, it means you aren't being ambitious enough in how you integrate agents into your workstream. Yes, it's probably comparable to 4.8 if you are just using it to write code
20.
by bpodgursky 14d ago
Do you have any familiarity with Anthropic at all? At no point did they ever say open weights are a good idea. Their entire thesis is AI IS VERY DANGEROUS AND WE MUST DO IT RIGHT. You can hate it, but everything they do is consistent with
21.
by bpodgursky 14d ago
The Matrix is actually more of an optimist position, modal doomers don't think any humans will be left for any reason at all (the earth will get turned into raw materials for compute, dyson spheres, etc).
22.
by bpodgursky 15d ago
There is an implicit agreement that mathematics is funded, for the most part by the public, as a way to advance the state of knowledge and propagate (even if very indirectly) what has learned for the public good. It was never about helping
23.
by bpodgursky 15d ago
? "everyone is advancing but tied" is completely different than arguing we're at the top of an S curve
24.
by bpodgursky 15d ago
? What world are you living on.
25.
by bpodgursky 15d ago
You gotta touch grass and get outside and talk to normies. And then recognize that the normies you talk to are VASTLY MORE internet-savvy than the illiterate child soldiers on the front lines in Yemen. You have no concept of the info envir
26.
by bpodgursky 15d ago
You have far, far too much faith in the professionalism of armed forces in the developing world. 99% of it is just random 22 year old guys with guns and dual-use communication tech.
27.
by bpodgursky 15d ago
What do you think the chain of command looks like in the third world? Even in the Russia/Ukraine conflict they use Telegram for basic operations. All chat applications are dual-use.
28.
by bpodgursky 15d ago
I didn't say "in the greater Pittsburgh area" or "in Shenzhen". Again... "you're allowed to use common sense"
29.
by bpodgursky 16d ago
How is this a double standard? A cell of actors in northern Yemen building guided rockets was not working on a PhD dissertation. You are allowed to use common sense sometimes.
30.
by bpodgursky 16d ago
America is a stage for the world. Nobody knows or cares about drama happening in European tech companies. I say this neither negatively or positively, it's just that US news is, for now, the only international news, in both tech and p

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