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Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
- HeavyStorm 2y agoAs in opposition to the non profit it currently is?there's absolutely nothing open about OAI.
- OrangeMusic 2y agoAs an aside, it's weird (and annoying) that they call him "Elon" rather than "Musk".
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- ronsor 2y agoI like this practice of publicly airing out dirty laundry.
- motorest 2y agoThis is not airing out dirty laundry. This is calling bullshit on a bullshitter making bullshit claims.
- vineyardmike 2y agoIt’s certainly in response to Elon getting more involved in the government. Recently the CFO basically challenged him to try and use his influence against competition “I trust that Elon would act completely appropriately… and not un-American [by abusing his influence for personal gain]”. The best thing they can do is shine as much light on his behavior in the hope that he backs down to avoid further scrutiny. Now that Elon is competing, and involved with the government, he’ll be under a lot more scrutiny.
- hipadev23 2y ago> Now that Elon is competing, and involved with the government, he’ll be under a lot more scrutiny. That's the cutest fucking thing I've heard this year. In what world is anyone going to scrutinize Elon Musk? He's the right-hand man of the most powerful person in the world. The time for scrutiny was 8 years ago.
- nativeit 2y agoScrutiny: noun critical observation or examination
- snozolli 2y agoHe'll be under scrutiny, just not by anyone with any power whatsoever to stop or even meaningfully influence his behaviors.
- zie 2y agoWell Congress could meaningfully influence behaviors, but it seems very unlikely unless something drastic happens.
- nyc_data_geek1 2y agoScrutiny without the ability to exert oversight, control or any modicum of restraint is... utterly useless to everyone except the historians.
- whoitwas 2y agoI didn't even realize he was American until this year. I thought he was African.
- hn1986 2y agoIt's naive for anyone to think that Elon won't use his influence in government to empower his companies and weaken his competitors.
- threeseed 2y agoHe spent $250m+ on helping get Trump elected. Of course he is going to try and recoup some of that money back.
- ruraljuror 2y agoHe already did. Look at Tesla’s stock since the election.
- xyzzy123 2y agoI think he is less worried about competitors than the government itself. Specifically, unelected bureaucrats with lots of power and few responsibilities.
- ericfr11 2y agoHe will actually use his position in the government to take down his competitors (by, for example, stopping the tax benefit of EV). Elon has grown into the biggest corrupt guy
- p_j_w 2y agoElon now IS an unelected bureucrat with lots of power and few responsibilities. If he's really afraid of that kind of thing, he should throw himself out.
- niceice 2y agoThat's what he is doing. He designed the department to have an expiration date.
- niceice 2y agoThat would be out of character for someone that opened Tesla's patents and lets competitors use the supercharger network.
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- themanmaran 2y agoAgreed!(assuming that wasn't sarcasm) Has a nice "nailing my grievances to the town square bulletin board" feel. Doesn't result in any real legal evidence either way, but it's fun to read along.
- tuyguntn 2y agoSo much public drama around AI company, just curious how it would impact their brand and relationship with enterprise companies, who usually seek stability when it comes to their service providers
- leonmusk 2y agowell it seems Elon is playing to win at all costs. Win what though "the culture" from that ian banks book?
- vidarh 2y agoWhole series of books. Banks would have detested where Musk has ended up, though - he was a committed socialist.
- mediumsmart 2y agoHow could he! thank god that did not happen.
- MassiveQuasar 2y agoFrom TFA: > Summer 2017: We and Elon agreed that a for-profit was the next step for OpenAI to advance the mission So basically Elon had the same idea as Sam Altman.
- mediumsmart 2y agoSam too?!! how could he! thank god that did not happen either.
- m463 2y agoI wonder who wrote this missive?
- jtokoph 2y agoGPT-4 :)
- moralestapia 2y agoYes ... and? The part that raises eyebrows is how a non-profit suddenly become a for-profit, from a legal standpoint.
- ascorbic 2y agoHe is suing to try to stop them becoming a for-profit. This post is showing that he originally supported the idea.
- moralestapia 2y ago>This post is showing that he originally supported the idea. Yes ... and? That still wouldn't make it legal. The lawsuit will be decided based on jurisprudence, not based on "what Elon thinks is right". This is a very amateurish move, tbh. Did they hire Matt Mullenweg's legal team?
- fallingknife 2y agoA useless argument. If Elon does, in fact, have the legal authority to prevent OpenAI being for profit due to his initial investment (and these emails seem to indicate that the other founders think he does), then it doesn't matter if he wanted it then, only if he wants it now when the decision is being made. The fact that this is being presented to the public and not to the court is further evidence of its weakness.
- claudiulodro 2y agoI think it's supposed to be juxtaposed to this tweet of his: > I’m still confused as to how a non-profit to which I donated ~$100M somehow became a $30B market cap for-profit. If this is legal, why doesn’t everyone do it?
- arlcode 2y agoWell apparently that's a very bold faced lie if the timeline claimed by sam altman is even close to being plausible. Elon Musks image is, for some reason beyond me, one of a "common man" who doesnt know all that much about business (and he's trying to pander to Twitter fans with that). Even more fascinating is that people are apparently buying into it. As if you can just stumble into that much business success (besides inheriting) without having a very firm grasp on how the corperate structures behind it work.
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- adamrezich 2y agoThat's the funniest part about all of this—the continued posturing that AGI is totally a thing that is just beyond our grasp.
- blibble 2y agojust give us another $100 billion to spend, it's all we need wink
- kachapopopow 2y ago23 trillion.
- colechristensen 2y agoOne of these days if AGI ever does actually come about, we might very well have to go to war with them. There might be a day where billionaires employ zero humans and themselves merge with the AGI in a way that makes them not quite human any more. The amount of data being collected about everyone and what machine learning can already do with it is frightening. I'm afraid the reaction to AI when it actually becomes a threat is going to look like more of a peasant revolt than a skynet situation.
- talldayo 2y ago> One of these days if AGI ever does actually come about, we might very well have to go to war with them. And the same conditions of material wealth that dictate traditional warfare will not be changed by the ChatGPT for Warlords subscription. This entire conversation is silly and predicated on beliefs that cannot be substantiated or delineated logically. You (and the rest of the AI preppers) are no different than the pious wasting their lives in fear awaiting the promised rapture. Life goes on. One day I might have to fistfight that super-dolphin from Johnny Mnemonic but I don't spend much time worrying about it in a relative sense.
- unglaublich 2y agoIf even OpenAI, who could benefit greatly from his money, warns you about this person, you might want to take it seriously.
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- WhatsName 2y agoI wonder if there are PR people out there, who watched the Wordpress vs. WPEngine disaster from the sideline and took notes. For me this rhymes with recent history...
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- baobabKoodaa 2y agoWhat, you can't feel the Christmas spirit?
- Havoc 2y agoNot 100% close to the facts, but from a cursory read this seems deeply dishonest on OpenAI's part to me. Musk appears to be objecting to a structure having profit driven players ("YC stock along with a salary") directly in the nonprofit...and is suggestion moving it to a parallel structure. That's seems like a perfectly valid and frankly ethically/governance sound point to raise. The fact that he mentions incentives specifically to me suggests he was going down that line of reasoning outlined above. Framing that as "Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit"...idk...maybe I'm missing something here, but dishonest framing is definitely the word that comes to mind.
- freedomben 2y ago> You can’t sue your way to AGI. We have great respect for Elon’s accomplishments and gratitude for his early contributions to OpenAI, but he should be competing in the marketplace rather than the courtroom. Isn't that exactly what he's doing with x.ai? Grok and all that? IIRC Elon has the biggest GPU compute cluster in the world right now, and is currently training the next major version of his "competing in the marketplace" product. It will be interesting to see how this blog post ages. I'm not dismissing the rest of the post (and indeed I think they make a good case on Elon's hypocrisy!) but the above seems at best like a pretty massive blindspot which (if I were invested in OpenAI) would cause me some concern.
- hangonhn 2y ago> biggest GPU compute cluster in the world right now Really? I'm really surprised by that. I thought Meta was the one who got the jump on everyone by hoarding H100s. Or did you mean strictly GPUs and not any of the AI specific chips?
- freedomben 2y agoGood point, I don't know if it's strictly GPUs or also includes some other AI specific chips. Nvidia wrote about it: https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/spectrum-x-ethernet-networking-xai-colossus https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/spectrum-x-ethernet-netwo...
- hangonhn 2y agooh wow. I think your original assertion is correct. Wow. What a crazy arms race.
- kiernanmcgowan 2y ago> IIRC Elon has the biggest CPU compute cluster in the world right now Do you have a source for this? I don’t buy this when compared to Google, Amazon, Lawrence Livermore National Lab…
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- factorialboy 2y agoFor-profit isn't the problem. Lying about being non-profit to raise funds, and _then_ become for-profit, that's the underlying concern.
- ozim 2y agoThat should be top comment on all OpenAI threads. Just like “open source and forever free” - until of course it starts to make sense charging money.
- retinaros 2y agoyes but its easy to hate musk thinking u siding with the good guys...
- boringg 2y agotheres no good guys at the executive level of the AI world - its money and power dressed in saving humanity language.
- catigula 2y agoYes, which means his post is an attempt to smear the credibility of musk, not make a legal defense. If this were a legal defense, this would be heard in court.
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- lesuorac 2y agoToo bad not disclosing that you always intended to convert the non-profit into a for-profit during your testimony while numerous senators congratulate you about your non-profit values isn't problematic. https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-senate-judiciary-subcommittee-hearing-on-oversight-of-ai/ https://www.techpolicy.press/transcript-senate-judiciary-sub...
- InfiniteVortex 2y agoregardless of what you think of it, the drama is at least entertaining!
- hermannj314 2y agoA few weeks ago my OpenAI credits expired and I was billed to replace them. I had no idea this was the business model, fine you got me with your auto-renew scam because you decided my tokens were spoiled. At some point, OpenAI became who they said they werent. You can't even get chatgpt to do anything fun anymore as the lawyers have hobbled its creative expression. And now they want to fight with Elon over what they supposedly used to believe about money back in 2017. Who actually deserves our support going forward?
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- pc86 2y agoExpiring tokens is a pretty standard business model. Are they lying and saying the tokens never expire?
- hermannj314 2y agoNope they aren't lying, but they lost me as a customer. My Arby's gift card lasted longer than my OpenAI credits, it's a horrible business model and I wish them luck, but I won't be a part of supporting bad models.
- selimthegrim 2y agoDon’t give them any ideas. Next time Starbucks will be popping up in the ChatGPT output, offering to convert your unused tokens to rewards there.
- nitwit005 2y agoSeveral states banned expiring gift cards. The gift card companies put up signs saying "never expires!" as advertisements in those states. Ethics aren't exactly abundant with this stuff.
- Dylan16807 2y agoStandard for who? That's awful model that probably shouldn't be legal. They're already getting a free loan for a service that gets cheaper to provide over time. At most, tokens should expire after years of inactivity and multiple warnings to reset the timer.
- AlanYx 2y agoIgnoring all the drama, this part is interesting: "On one call, Elon told us he didn’t care about equity personally but just needed to accumulate $80B for a city on Mars."
- pram 2y agoMeasured another way, just a bit under 2 Twitters.
- talldayo 2y agoThe fact that owning Twitter was worth half a Mars colony to him should give you an idea of how seriously he's taking this whole thing. It's up there next to "Full Self Driving" and "$25,000 EV" in the Big Jar of Promises Used To Raise Capital and Nothing Else.
- adabyron 2y agoHe bought Twitter for $40B. His Tesla stock was 0% ytd until the election. Post election it is up roughly 70% ytd & has paid for Twitter & the Mars colony multiple times. Hard to say if that happens without him owning Twitter.
- kingofheroes 2y agoThis. In hindsight, buying Twitter at a loss was well worth the long (though, more like medium) term results. As much as it disgusts me, I'm impressed.
- conception 2y agoNote he didn’t just buy Twitter. He was forced to buy twitter after trying to pump and dump the stock.
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- tuyguntn 2y ago> each board member has a deep understanding of technology, at least a basic understanding of AI and strong & sensible morals. > Put increasing effort into the safety/control problem ... and we are working to get defense contracts which is used to kill human beings in other countries, or fund organizations who kill humans
- jcrash 2y agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBoUHay7XBI&t=345s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBoUHay7XBI&t=345s one of the few youtube links on this page that is still up
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- lsy 2y agoI guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment and little return, and no obvious large-scale product-market fit, much less a superintelligence. As a bonus, they lay out the OpenAI business model: > Our fundraising conversations show that: > * Ilya and I are able to convince reputable people that AGI can really happen in the next ≤10 years > * There’s appetite for donations from those people > * There’s very large appetite for investments from those people
- EA-3167 2y agoIf you push back on them, you get pushed out. If you suck up to them and their delusional belief systems, you might get paid. It's a very self-selecting, self-reinforcing process. In other words, it's also an affective death spiral.
- hengheng 2y agoThese guys didn't get to where they are now by admitting mistakes and making themselves accountable. In power play terms, that would be weak. And once you are way up there and you have definitely left earth, there is no right or wrong anymore, just strong and weak.
- ThrowawayTestr 2y agoIt's been clear for a while now Elon has no one in his life that's willing to push back on his inane ideas
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- catigula 2y agoIs it even possible for Sam Altman to stop being dishonest? This isn't a method to redress concerns, it's a smear that has nothing to do with the lawsuit.
- milleramp 2y agoIs this one of the 12 days of OpenAI?
- heavyarms 2y agoIf this is a GPT-generated joke, I'd say they cracked AGI.
- meagher 2y agoPeople change their minds all the time. What someone wanted in 2017 could be the same or different in 2024?
- gkoberger 2y agoSure, but the nuance is Elon only wants what benefits him most at the time. There was no philosophical change, other than now he’s competing. He's allowed these opinions, we’re allowed to ignore them and lawyers are allowed to use this against him.
- ganeshkrishnan 2y ago> but the nuance is Elon only wants what benefits him most at the time. Isn't that almost everyone? The people who left OpenAi could have joined forces but everyone went ahead and created their own company "for AGI" It's like the wild west where everyone dreams of digging up gold.
- j16sdiz 2y ago> Isn't that almost everyone? Sure. That's why we have contracts and laws to restricts how much one can change without paying or jail. Not every changes are equals.
- fallingknife 2y agoThat is true of most people and is the most common reason people change their minds.
- niek_pas 2y ago[citation needed]
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- kelseyfrog 2y agoMaybe a weird question, but how does a capitalist economy work where AGI-performed-labor is categorically less expensive than human-performed labor? Do most people who labor for wages just go unemployed, and then bankrupt, and then die?
- next_xibalba 2y agoNo one has a strong answer for this. This question was the origin of a lot of universal basic income chatter and research beginning in maybe 2014. The idea being, whoever creates superintelligence will capture substantively all future profits. If a non-profit (or capped profit) company does it, they could fund UBI for society. But the research into UBI have not been very decisive. Do people flourish or flounder when receiving UBI? And what does that, in aggregate, do to a society? We still don't really know. Oh and also, OAI is no longer a non-profit and has eliminated the profit cap.
- slibhb 2y agoThe question shows a total disconnect from reality. People who are unemployed with no money today don't die. Even street people don't die. If AGI labor is cheaper and as effective as human labor, prices will drop to the point where the necessities cost very little. People will be able to support themselves working part-time jobs on whatever hasn't been automated. The tax system will become more redistributive and maybe we'll adopt a negative income tax. People will still whine and bitch about capitalism even as it negates the need for them to lift a single finger.
- kelseyfrog 2y agoUntil now, I didn't think that poverty impacting mortality was a controversial statement. Poverty is the fourth greatest cause of US deaths[1]. Why would I hire a part time worker when I could hire an AI for cheaper? When I said categorically, I meant it. 1. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2023-04-poverty-fourth-greatest-deaths-analysis.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://medicalxpress.com/news/2023-04-poverty-fourth-greate...
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- vwkd 2y agoSounds like Elon's "fourth attempt [..] to reframe his claims" might actually be close to the target. Otherwise, why would they engage in a publicity battle to sway public sentiment precisely now, if their legal case wasn't weak?
- hatsix 2y agoI'm generally in the camp of "I wouldn't miss anyone or anything involved in this story if they suddenly stopped existing", but I don't understand how engaging in a publicity battle is considered proof of anything. If their case was weak, what use is it to get the public on "their side" and they lose? If their case is strong, why wouldn't they want the public to be on their side? I hope they all spend all of their money in court and go bankrupt.
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- dogboat 2y agoPre transformers paper emails. Fun to read.
- 23B1 2y agoNeither they nor Elon can or should be trusted to tell the truth. The only utility this statement should have is to illustrate whatever public narrative OAI wishes to affect.
- I_am_tiberius 2y agoTrue. But after Elon's twitter lies and world domination ambitions he showed during the past 5 years, I just can't support his narrative.
- dtquad 2y agoImportant context: Elon Musk's close friend from the PayPal days and fellow libertarian tech billionaire David Sacks has been selected as the Trump admin's czar for AI and crypto. This is why OpenAI and Sam Altman are understandably concerned.
- I_am_tiberius 2y agoFor additional context: These PayPal guys are very much contra Google and YC (Sam/pg).
- fallingknife 2y agoI know Elon fucked Brin's wife and is currently fighting with Altman over the OpenAI fortune, but is there actually any broader beef there?
- spprashant 2y agoSacks and PG don't see eye to eye. There is some beef there. PG is a big Altman supporter. To be fair he also thinks highly of Musk as a founder, but does not agree with his politics. It would seem to me, there is larger rift developing in SV between the YC clique and the AllIn podcast gang.
- dgrin91 2y agodumb question - in one of the emails they mention ICO. What is that? > I have considered the ICO approach and will not support it. ... > I respect your decision on the ICO idea Pretty sure they aren't talking about Initial Coin Offerings. Any clue what they mean?
- wmf 2y agoAltman created Worldcoin so maybe he did mean Initial Coin Offering.
- intuitionist 2y agoIt’s in an email from January 2018, between Silicon Valley tech bros, next to discussion of fundraising. Of course they’re talking about an initial coin offering.
- falseprofit 2y agoWhy not?
- boringg 2y agoIf I read anything from this it's the OpenAI is looking weak and worried if they are trying to use this to garner support or, at least, generate negative publicity for x.AI / Musk. Altman being the regulatory capture man muscling out competitors via pushing the white house and washington to move for safety, the whole board debacle and converting from not for profit to profit. I don't think anyone sees Musks efforts as altruistic.
- averageRoyalty 2y agoIt's an aside, but these sorts of timelines are very American centric. I don't know when your autumn ("fall") or summer are in relation to September. Don't mix keys here, either use months or quarters, not a mix of things including some relative to a specific hemisphere.
- ronsor 2y agoOpenAI is an American company
- averageRoyalty 2y agoAnd they intend to "determine the fate of the world". As such, communication shouldn't be American centric.
- yazzku 2y agoYou're several decades late for that. Almost a century now.
- ben_w 2y agoI'd give at least even odds the next century won't be american-centric, despite all this effort. China has a good chance of replacing the USA as the global hegemony, with the EU as a lesser alternative but one with enough strengths to be at least plausible if not the most likely.
- samatman 2y agoSince you knew it was American centric, and you knew when autumn or "fall" or summer are in the Northern Hemisphere, where all† of the United States of America‡ is located, You did, in fact, know when was referred to. It's even possible to realize that "over the summer" can include Christmas in Sydney or Buenos Aires! Mostly people realize we live on a sphere, and what the consequences of that are. † With apologies to American Samoa. ‡ Country name spelled in full to avoid the predictable bellyaching about the existence of a continent of the same name, or two, depending on where you hail from. Another thing you are not in fact confused about.
- exprofmaddy 2y agoIt seems the humans pursuing AGI lack sufficient natural intelligence. I'm sad that humans with such narrow and misguided perspectives have so much power, money, and influence. I worry this won't end well.
- kandesbunzler 2y agothen surely you can create your own company and do it much better than them
- lobsterthief 2y agoGreat idea, I’ll just drop everything in my life and do that
- exprofmaddy 2y agoSorry I triggered you.
- agnosticmantis 2y agoFrom Musk's email: "Frankly, what surprises me is that the AI community is taking this long to figure out concepts. It doesn’t sound super hard. High-level linking of a large number of deep nets sounds like the right approach or at least a key part of the right approach." Genuine question I've always had is, are these charlatans conscious of how full of shit they are, or are they really high on their own stuff? Also it grinds my gears when they pull out probabilities out of their asses: "The probability of DeepMind creating a deep mind increases every year. Maybe it doesn’t get past 50% in 2 to 3 years, but it likely moves past 10%. That doesn’t sound crazy to me, given their resources."
- hn1986 2y agoYou should read what he says about software engineering. He's clearly clueless
- paweladamczuk 2y agoI'm interested, can you point me to some interviews or posts with him talking about it?
- steve_adams_86 2y ago> Frankly, what surprises me is that the AI community I came here thinking about this exact part. Well, many of them, but this one in particularly. What surprises me about Elon is how much he can talk about other peoples' work without doing any of it himself. And yet each time I hear him talk about something I'm well-versed in, he sounds fairly oblivious yet totally unaware of that fact. His go-to strategy seems to be hand waving with a bit of "how hard could it be"? He's very fortunate he has competent staff.
- agnosticmantis 2y agoAt his level of wealth and power he can unfortunately peddle in all sorts of highfalutin technical-sounding nonsense with zero accountability. Few people like Yann LeCun can afford to call his bullshit and survive the reality distortion field.
- Biologist123 2y agoI’m neither an Elon fanboy nor a hater. But I do wonder both what he possesses and is possessed by to have created not just a successful company, but era-defining companies plural.
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- ilrwbwrkhv 2y agoSpaceX is era defining. The rest are pretty run of the mill. One could also say that SpaceX happened because the US desperately needed a launch vehicle of their own.
- ben_w 2y agoHmm. I would argue that Tesla became era-defining by the efforts of Musk; and I get the impression that within the USA Tesla is still leading with regard to electric personal transport. Worldwide is a different matter: other brands have learned lessons, replicated what he did right, improved on what he did wrong — so while he's still defined the beginning of the era of electric cars, he's no longer important to the ongoing success of them.
- tonygiorgio 2y agoJust about the only open part about OpenAI is how their dirty laundry is constantly out in the open.
- frognumber 2y agoI think one issue is this highlights is how despicable all these individuals are. The way I read this: Elon Musk wanted OpenAI to commit fraud. They refused. He went away. They decided to commit the same fraud. He sued. They're a strong case in both directions. There's a legal principle that you can't take opposing views on the same legal issue.
- DirkH 2y agoDon't come here with your nuance! It'll confuse people and they won't know what side to take! The horror!
- linotype 2y agoGoogle/Gemini have none of this baggage.
- dtquad 2y agoGoogle/Gemini are also the only ones who are not entirely dependent on Nvidia. They are now several generations into their in-house designed and TSMC manufactured TPUs.
- bgnn 2y agoBroadcom is now the second biggest AI chip producer thanks to Google. Apple recently announced they will also work with Broadcom on something similar.
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- int_19h 2y agoGoogle is its own very special kind of baggage, though.
- willy_k 2y agoNeither does Anthropic/Claude.
- andrewinardeer 2y agoOkay. Is OpenAI now deflecting? Deflecting and reframing.
- VectorLock 2y agoI found all the discussions about Dota pretty amusing. I had no idea it was such a big thing for them early on.
- bee_rider 2y agoIf I’m replaced by a DOTA bot I'm going to be pissed. At least it could be a bot for a good game, like StarCraft or something.
- VectorLock 2y agoI'm curious why they ended up focusing on DOTA. Prize money? Valve make the game particular amenable to machine interface?
- bee_rider 2y agoNot sure. Off the cuff, as someone who only played MOBAs when they were Warcraft 3 maps, * limited choices for actual commands to make, but still lots decision to make. * a very active competitive community * easy to evaluate win conditions and (I think?) somewhat easy to evaluate “am I doing well” conditions (like if you fall behind on experience you are doing poorly I think) So maybe it is a convenient genre.
- agnosticmantis 2y agoIt's amusing how Sutskever kept musking Musk over the years (overpromising with crazy deadlines and underdelivering): In 2017 he wrote "Within the next three years, robotics should be completely solved, AI should solve a long-standing unproven theorem, programming competitions should be won consistently by AIs, and there should be convincing chatbots (though no one should pass the Turing test)." "We will completely solve the problem of adversarial examples by the end of August." Very clever to take a page from Musk's own playbook of confidently promising self-driving by next year for a decade.
- ks2048 2y agoThat’s embarrassing and should be noted when he’s treated as a guru (as in today when I guess he gave a talk at Neurips conference) Of course, he should be listened to and treated as a true expert. But, it’s becoming more clear in viewing public people that extreme success can warp people’s perspective.
- CamperBob2 2y agoI mean, he wasn't that far off. The Turing test is well and truly beaten, regardless of how you define it, and I sure wouldn't want to go up against o1-pro in a programming or math contest. Robotics being "solved" was indeed a stupid thing to assert because that's a hornet's nest of wicked problems in material science, mechanical engineering, and half a dozen other fields. Given a suitable robotic platform, though, 2020-era AI would have done a credible job driving its central nervous system, and it certainly wouldn't be a stumbling block now. It's been a while since I heard any revealing anecdotes about adversarial examples in leading-edge GPT models, but I don't know if we can say it's a solved problem or not.
- philipwhiuk 2y ago> The Turing test is well and truly beaten, regardless of how you define it Unless the question the human asks is 'How many l's in llama'
- _7acn 2y ago“We founded OpenAI as a non-profit, but to create OpenAGI, profit was necessary!!! However, Elon Musk also wanted profit!!!!111 And now, he also created profits!!! So, everything is OK”
- swyx 2y ago> Here is a cool video of our bot doing something rather clever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-vxbREX5ck&feature=youtu.be&t=99 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-vxbREX5ck&feature=youtu.be.... > The HER algorithm (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dz_HuzgMzxo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dz_HuzgMzxo) can learn to solve many low-dimensional robotics tasks that were previously unsolvable very rapidly. It is non-obvious, simple, and effective. > In 6 months, we will accomplish at least one of: single-handed Rubik’s cube, pen spinning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDavyRnEPrI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDavyRnEPrI), Chinese balls spinning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9N1duIl4Fc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9N1duIl4Fc) using the HER algorithm taken down now. anyone have it? > Lock down an overwhelming hardware advantage. The 4-chip card that <redacted> says he can build in 2 years is effectively TPU 3.0 and (given enough quantity) would allow us to be on an almost equal footing with Google on compute. who is this? it isnt cerebras. sambanova?
- nothrowaways 2y ago> You can’t sue your way to AGI
- Uptrenda 2y agoWhy are they airing their dirty laundry like this? None of what they've said makes either side look good. In fact it makes OpenAI look like the money-obsessed hypocrites we always knew them to be.
- nova22033 2y agoBecause Elon sued OpenAI
- jjulius 2y agoI've vented in previous comments this year about how weird it is that we've collectively become okay with corporations, politicians, public figures, yadda yadda, putting out statements that everyone knows to be bullshit. It's the norm, and it's fucking weird. So, strictly in that sense, I'm appreciating this level of "openness".
- WiSaGaN 2y agoSam Altman said this around a year ago: "i expect ai to be capable of superhuman persuasion well before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to some very strange outcomes". I am wondering whether AI has any input for this piece that tries to persuade the public to believe the people that are accusing me is not good either.
- agnosticmantis 2y agoFrom Brockman's email: "Our biggest tool is the moral high ground. To retain this, we must: Try our best to remain a non-profit. AI is going to shake up the fabric of society, and our fiduciary duty should be to humanity." Well, reading this in 2024 with (so-called) "Open"AI going for-profit, it aged like milk. Also a few lines later, he writes: "We don’t encourage paper writing, and so paper acceptance isn’t a measure we optimize." So much for openness and moral high ground! This whole thread is a masterpiece in dishonesty, hypocrisy and narcissistic power plays for any wannabe villains. It's amusing to see they keep their masks on even in internal communications though. I'd have thought the messiah complex and benevolence parade is only for the public, but I was wrong.
- Yeul 2y agoThese people talk like 20th century communists in a Vienna coffeehouse.
- ks2048 2y agoOff-content-comment: I think this is the first time I’ve seen cloudflare “are you a bot” protection on a corporate blog post before. I think somehow related to AI companies viewing the web as valuable data to be stolen if you don’t have it and protected property if you do have it.
- roca 2y agoI'm amazed OpenAI made these disclosures. My main takeaway was how wrong all the predictions of Sutskever and Brockman turned out to be, and how all their promises have been broken. Also interesting that up to 2019 OpenAI was focused on RL rather than LLMs.
- nightowl_games 2y agoWhat were their predictions?
- roca 2y ago"we have reason to believe AGI can ultimately be built with less than $10B in hardware" "Within the next three years, robotics should be completely solved, AI should solve a long-standing unproven theorem, programming competitions should be won consistently by AIs, and there should be convincing chatbots" (2017) "We will completely solve the problem of adversarial examples by the end of August"
- Mistletoe 2y agoWhat would robotics completely solved even mean?
- fsmv 2y agoHumanoid robots operating in the world built for humans performing useful tasks
- Melting_Harps 2y ago> "we have reason to believe AGI can ultimately be built with less than $10B in hardware" As a person who actually builds this infrastructure for Data Centers: Bwahaha!!! This guy should have been laughed out of the room, and probably been out of a job if ANYONE took this guy serious. There are Elon levels of dillusions, and then there is this!
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- zookerterg 2y ago[dead]
- iamnotsure 2y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Email_privacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Email_privacy
- rendang 2y agoThe throwaway diss of Blue Origin was pretty funny. The biggest miss from Elon seems to be that he overestimated Google's lead. Did Google really drop the ball on staying in 1st place and if so why?
- kranke155 2y agoThis has been discussed. Yes Google - and particularly DeepMind were far ahead when OAI started. They even have the first paper on Transformers I think. But the people who ended up productising the entire thing was OAI because the incentives weren’t there for Google to make ChatGPT.
- bloomingkales 2y agoThis seems quite unprofessional.
- taosx 2y agoDid Elon Musk really only take 9 minutes to read, consider, and respond to Ilya & Greg's thoughtful "Honest Thoughts" email? That seems remarkably brief, crazy. I'm surprised by OpenAI's resilience through all this drama. It's impressive to see how far they've come from 2017 to 2024. This journey has given me a whole new appreciation for startups and the individuals behind them. Now I better understand why my own past mediocre attempts didn't succeed. Thank you for sharing this information!
- WhereIsTheTruth 2y agoI would love to know the identity of their GC, the team that does it all
- thih9 2y ago> September 2017: We rejected Elon's terms because giving him unilateral control of OpenAI and its technology would be contrary to the mission Why the rejection in 2017 when in 2024 the company moved towards a similar goal?
- kranke155 2y agoBecause Sam.
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- Alifatisk 2y agoI am used to their articles being sterile and formal, this reads like some teenager spilling their tea on social media.
- nachox999 2y agoso true, it's cringey af
- ouraf 2y agoThey are baiting for a lawsuit. Posting this right now isn't very beneficial for openAI, since they themselves want to loose the self inposed restrictions.
- pikseladam 2y agoelon lost the bet. now he wants to take revenge. thats all there is.