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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)
- seanieb 10mo agoThe US has had an economic wind at its back for a long time, but there’s perfect storm of debt, trade, inflation and de-dollarization brewing.
- weirdmantis69 10mo agoIf Something Cannot Go on Forever, It Will Stop
- codr7 10mo agoEmpires are very adept at dethroning themselves by way of greed.
- jacquesm 10mo agoIt's not losing it so much as that it is being destroyed on purpose.
- andsoitis 10mo agoThe decline has been gradual. The dollar's portion of global forex reserves has fallen from over 70% in the late 1990s to around 60%. The Supreme Court's ruling on Fed independency is to be watched.
- blurbleblurble 10mo agoGradual isn't nearly profitable enough for some people.
- softwaredoug 10mo agoIt may also point not just to decline in US stability but other areas of the world with stable monetary policy compared to the 90s
- TSiege 10mo agoYou're also forgetting BRICs and the EU's efforts to create their own banking systems that would make it easier to do trade and finances without the dollar as an intermediary. The dollar being the reserve currency is going to be come more sudden once mass adoption of those platforms takes hold. Who can blame them with how the US is behaving
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago> BRICs and the EU's efforts to create their own banking systems One of these exists. The other is bluster.
- direwolf20 10mo ago[dead]
- ElectricalUnion 10mo ago"BRICS" is one of those organizations of countries that make even OPEC (famous for being non-commital, non-punishing, barely advisorial organization that doesn't meet it's own goals since the 1980's) look like a very serious group.
- blibble 10mo ago"at first you go bankrupt slowly, then all at once"
- marcosdumay 10mo agoDoes your data include 2025? Because it was the only year with any international pushback at all, so we shouldn't expect the previous trend to stay unperturbed.
- mkoubaa 10mo agoWhen the debt gets this big and fixed obligations can't be changed devaluation becomes the only workable solution. Yet it's still robbery.
- quantum_state 10mo agoWould second what you said. Election has consequences. We better correct course soon before the country is made bankrupt.
- rvz 10mo ago[flagged]
- nish__ 10mo agoTrue. Good way to pay employees less. Edit: to the downvoters, did I lie?
- tclancy 10mo agoYou seem to be talking about an alternative universe where employers are being paid in a different currency.
- nish__ 10mo agoIt's a conspiracy!
- datsci_est_2015 10mo agoTo be generous, asset holders are hurt less by a weakening dollar than non-asset holders (all else equal). To put it another way, do you think billionaires will let themselves suffer before their employees suffer?
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- lavezzi 10mo agoIt's being destroyed on purpose, with backing from the crypto industry who stand to have the most to gain at the expense of everyone else.
- 827a 10mo agoThe decline has been steady since ~2000. The US dollar being used less across the world has both negative and positive consequences for the US and USG. This is the Triffin Dilemma, and dates back to the 1960s; the USD's dominance over-values the currency relative to other currencies, which hurts exports and thus domestic manufacturing. It also conflicts USG/UST priorities between making decisions that are best for the US people, versus best for international customers of the dollar. Triffin covered this at length in his address to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in 1959, but in short, the USD acting as world reserve currency creates demand for the dollar, which the US has to be able to supply, which pre-1971 meant extreme strain on her gold supply, and post-1971 means greater monetary inflation.
- wesapien 10mo agoMost think that the cracks in the financial system started to appear after 2008 (global financial crisis) and become truly visible after the financial system was weaponized through the seizures of Russian central bank USD reserves. It setup a precedent that it happened once it could happen again to some other country. Cheers to you for mentioning Triffin's dilemma. In my opinion, the dilemma is in the ability of the host country to be able to make "good use" of the exorbitant privilege. The financial system was not only used against other states but against its own people. Instead of developing the country and building equity through the middle class, it cannibalized its own.
- sneak 10mo agoBy whom, for what purpose?
- datsci_est_2015 10mo agoThe Trump cabinet is explicitly determined to improve its trade imbalance (export / import) and has spoken about the US dollar’s relative strength as a weakness in trade imbalance. There’s a delicate, fine line between dedollarization and a heavily weakened dollar, especially when the methods used are viewed as fickle and capricious (tariffs, threats). So it’s basically four choices: - Dedollarization is not happening (#nothingeverhappens) - Dedollarization is happening, but not because of anything the Trump admin is doing (lol) - Dedollarization is happening and the Trump admin is either causing it or exacerbating it, despite not coming out explicitly favoring it (they’re idiots) - Dedollarization is happening and it’s being orchestrated by the Trump admin (5d chess / malicious actors)
- snovymgodym 10mo agoThe international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.
- mkoubaa 10mo ago[flagged]
- mothballed 10mo agoI don't know how you can say that about an institution that was formed by people using false identities on Jekyll Island and ramming it through congress as fast as possible because in their own words "if the people found out they would stop them" (paraphrased).
- Eji1700 10mo agoIt does have a strong economic reason to exist and be independent.
- lovich 10mo agoMy local town doesn't have a Constitutional right to exist or be independent either. This has very little to do with the price of tea in China. Parties outside of the US who don't give a fuck all about the Constitution are involved in keeping us as a reserve currency, and they care that the fed is independent. We have kept it so to keep the economy stable and to reap the benefits of that stability.
- RealityVoid 10mo agoOk? Trump doesn't have a constitutional right to do a bunch of crap but he's doing them anyway. This is the world we live in.
- twh270 10mo agoIt does exist, and it has been independent, and consequently global markets have priced that in. If that changes, markets will respond accordingly.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- dyauspitr 10mo agoTrump is destroying it intentionally.
- touwer 10mo agoWithout a good strategy of course...
- 4fterd4rk 10mo agoCompromised people and useful idiots within the Trump administration are being persuaded by Russia to destroy the dollar and break up NATO.
- outside1234 10mo agoWhere persuaded is probably "bribed"
- DetectDefect 10mo agoAre you certain inflating the money supply with trillions of dollars by prior administrations did not have an effect?
- hluska 10mo agoHow exactly is QE related to all this bullshit? You’re going to need some sources before you start randomly claiming that QE is leading to the collapse of NATO.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- 4fterd4rk 10mo agoWell, yeah. Because there hasn't been any significant fluctuation in exchange rates. You can also see the decline in the velocity of money that's offsetting the increase in the money supply metrics (numbers checked on FRED). It's very clear that we haven't had unprecedented inflation. So the burden of proof is on you... why would the increase in the money supply matter when all metrics are saying otherwise?
- InitialLastName 10mo agoIt assuredly did. For example, the first Trump administration is responsible for ~25% of the current money supply, with the second Trump term only contributing about 6%.
- ezst 10mo agoSo, "let's have Trump burn the house down just to make the point nobody was arguing against that fireplaces can be hazardous"?
- utopiah 10mo agoNo idea how those things work but surprised the $/€ exchange rate stabilized.
- torlok 10mo agoYou had a year of flip-flopping on tariffs, and a lot of noise. Serious threats are coming out just now, and may get cut abruptly closer to November. It's going to be a while before this presidency gets reflected by the market.
- StephenSmith 10mo agoIf the goal is to make US goods attractive to other countries and to decrease our trade deficit (not saying I agree with this goal), either the dollar has to become fundamentally weaker or the goods have to become more valuable. The latter feels more difficult than the former at this point. However, the side effects of a weaker dollar may not be worth weakening it.
- andsoitis 10mo ago> decrease our trade deficit (not saying I agree with this goal), either the dollar A direct link exists between a nation's status as the world's primary reserve currency and its tendency to run persistent trade deficits. This relationship is often described by the Triffin Dilemma, a paradox where the global demand for the reserve currency necessitates that the issuing country consistently supplies the world with its currency, primarily through importing more than it exports.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- notahacker 10mo agoThe flip side is if you weaken the dollar by appearing unstable and displaying hostility to your main trade partners, you get the drawbacks of the weaker currency (reduced purchasing power) without commensurate improvement in the attractiveness of goods to other countries. Some devaluations are more strategic than others.
- usrusr 10mo agoBut the broligarchs don't need purchasing power. All their wealth is in assets, leveraged many times over. Currency collapse is the best that can happen to them.
- RealityVoid 10mo agoDon't worry, assets collapse as well when a lot of the market of the US becomes unavailable.
- outside1234 10mo agoIf Trump announces some toady lunatic to run the Fed, watch out below, because the dollar is going to crash. I know I have moved a bunch of money into international stocks and currency and I suspect when the right leaning crowd finally catches on it will be a stampede.
- HWR_14 10mo agoWhat's the difference between an international stock and a US based multinational in your analysis?
- corimaith 10mo agoThe export driven economies like China or the EU rely on the dollar to weaken their own currencies for competitive trade. Without it, natural FX mechanisms would naturally begin to appreciate their currencies and make their exports uncompetitive.
- FpUser 10mo ago>"The export driven economies like China or the EU rely on the dollar to weaken their own currencies for competitive trade" I have about zero clue how finances really work but it looks to me as the statement is only true if the dollar is the predominant currency for international trade. This looks to be slowly changing for various reasons.
- corimaith 10mo ago>This looks to be slowly changing for various reasons. Well, not really, because obviously that deprecation via buying government treasuries is balanced by the appreciation in the other currencies. But if everybody (large enough to matter) dosen't want their currency to appreciate, if somebody buys Japanese bonds for example to weaken their own currency, then Japan will buy somebody else's treasuries to offset the increase in Yen, and if we go to the long chain of musical chairs of people offsetting each other's behaviours, it just leads back to the USA as the only ones both large enough and willing to take in those capital inflows. That's not a interpretation mind you, that's a description of what central banks are doing right now. If that has to change, you need somebody willing to take the mantle of the absorber of global deficits, and nobody wants to do that.
- the_duke 10mo agoAccording to USTR data the EU had a 200bn goods surplus, but a 100bn services deficit in 2024. So a 100bn deficit out of 800bn total US imports. The deficit is there, but it's not nearly as lopsided as some reporting would have you believe.
- diego_moita 10mo agoThe biggest problem of all social sciences is that they measure only what can be measured or is easier to measure. Sorry for the redundancy, but they don't see what is hard to see and, therefore, think it doesn't exist. I suspect there might be a lot of "de-dollarization" going on in realms that might not be easy to measure. To be specific: it is interesting that crypto-currencies have emerged as the currency of choice for illegal activities.
- hluska 10mo agoThe article is talking about reserve currencies. Cryptocurrency isn’t relevant.
- retrocog 10mo agoThe gold :: oil ratio tells quite a tale https://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historica...
- almusdives 10mo agoDefinitely says something, but I'm not sure what. How are you interpreting this?
- Aloha 10mo agonot the OP - That gold is rarer than oil, and the supply is lower when compared to demand.
- almusdives 10mo agoI appreciate that this figure is showing that the relative scarcity of gold compared to oil increasing, but I'm not sure what it's saying, or is interesting beyond that? Is this reflecting a global shift towards natural gas rather than oil, or reflecting investors are particularly nervous since covid, for example? Obviously, you can't drawn any hard conclusions, but I was wondering what the OP was thinking narratively when posting.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- mertleee 10mo ago[dead]
- mmaunder 10mo agoThe dollar has lost 13% vs the South African Rand in the past year. Thats an interesting metric for me given how South Africa has decoupled from the US in favor of China and Russia, with a strong anti-Israel stance. And also taking into consideration how the country is still struggling with crime, corruption and uncertainty. It’s doing to be interesting to see how this plays out as the producers and makers of the world unite, and the EU turns away from the US.
- mothballed 10mo agoDollar has also lost like 99% vs the South African Kruggerand since 1967.
- einpoklum 10mo agoBut is the exchange rate really the right metric for the "weakening" due to de-dollarization? Especially since world states decoupling from the US would try avoiding both transactions which gain them USD and which require paying USD?
- Havoc 10mo ago>given how South Africa has decoupled from the US in favor of China and Russia That's the party line & there have been some eye catching military exercises and statements to this effect, but daily life is still very much western aligned. It exports a ton of ore to china and imports a bunch of things from there certainly...but that's kinda just every country these days isn't it.
- blurbleblurble 10mo agoWhat if the goal is to crash/burn and consolidate ownership? This time with the money system? I mean, it sure looks like the goal.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- codesnik 10mo agoit'd sound reasonable, if that ownership wasn't already overconsolidated. But who says people doing that are reasonable.
- blurbleblurble 10mo agoIt might be over-consolidated in the aggregate but I don't think the greed is too worried about that.
- fzeroracer 10mo agoI don't think there is a single concrete goal, when you look at how flabbergastingly stupid most of the oligarchs are (just scroll through Elon Musk's most recent posts) it's hard to imagine there being any real master plan. It's a bunch of dumb assholes that were raised with infinite money and where nobody ever told them no. If you've ever had the unfortunate opportunity to interact with your average CEO at a mid-level business it's the same thing but on a much smaller scale. They can't fail, only be failed.
- 7777777phil 10mo agoAt the risk of sounding like shameless self promotion, I recently wrote about how Zoltan Pozsar predicted this over three years ago: https://philippdubach.com/posts/pozsars-bretton-woods-iii-three-years-later-2/2/ https://philippdubach.com/posts/pozsars-bretton-woods-iii-th...
- neom 10mo agoInteresting related read: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/04/us-dollars-role-international-monetary-system-now-dangerously-flux https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/04/us-dollars-role-interna... And if you feel like something long (pdf): https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/A-strategy-for-dollar-dominance.pdf https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/A...
- seawsurf 10mo agoThe world is rich and getting richer. The quality of life outside of the US is rising.
- FpUser 10mo agoEuropeans might disagree
- amanaplanacanal 10mo agoThere is more to the world than Europe.
- anon291 10mo agoWhich is why the euro will not be a reasonable reserve cirrency
- konnekshin 10mo agoBitcoin fixes.
- beardyw 10mo agoPatently. The current situation in the USA doesn't inspire confidence.
- throwaway5752 10mo agoYes, of fucking course it is. The US elected a convicted con artist who is incontrovertibly violating human rights law, breaking treaties with allies, militarily threatening neighbors, and in general making a global outcast of themselves. The US is making an absolute mockery over the honor and responsibility granted to in the post-WW2 world. It has sophisticated rivals that are predictably and effectively making use of the self-inflicted crisis. So far the ruling class of the US has been happy enough to let this go, and has been too busy making rocket ships, fake computer currencies, and large estates in south Florida to deal with real world problems. If you are in the US, buy some gold or a house so your savings aren't destroyed - utterly predictably - by the man who declared Chapter 11 bankrupcy at least 6 times.
- einpoklum 10mo ago> The US is making an absolute mockery over the honor and responsibility etc. The US was a rather empire without many scruples before WW2 and after it. It engaged in genocide in Vietnam, and was complicit in several others, including the ongoing one in Gaza - which was sanctioned, funded and facilitated first and foremost by the Biden-Harris administration. So, without detracting from Trump's crimes and jingoist rhetoric and action, his deviation from US foreign policy tradition is not as far as one might imagine.
- throwaway5752 10mo agoI'm afraid I completely disagree with you and am not interested in arguing further than this. Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Gaza, and so many others are atrocities but they are well understood by anyone with a casual understanding of 20th century geopolitics. Anything you could list is awful but still respected the norms and rules that exist between nation states. There is not a high bar for these things, but some people within a specific flavor of the Republican party reject these rules and norms. By a quirk of history they were able to gain power. I could describe this in more technical and impressive sounding language, but "FAFO, and we are in the find-out stage" goes by many names and is accurate.
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- hnburnsy 10mo agoAlso JPM in April 2025... JP Morgan see gold prices crossing $4,000/oz by Q2 2026 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jp-morgan-see-gold-prices-192717669.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jp-morgan-see-gold-prices-192...
- rvz 10mo agoTLDR: Yes.
- pammf 10mo agoTrump will go down in history as the clearest marker of the United States’ decline.
- add-sub-mul-div 10mo agoAnd you could have said that during The Apprentice.
- techright75 10mo ago[dead]
- thuridas 10mo agoHaving dollars was useful to trade with US. But the trade has been reduced by tariffs. Also. Any attack to the independence of the federal reserve damages whee vale of the dollar
- blackoil 10mo agoCurrent Trade with US is a small percentage of the reserve. It's the trade with everybody else and trust that it will hold value for all the future trade is where it matters.
- touwer 10mo agoThe US century is already over. It's just that a lot of US citizens don't see that. De-dollarization will happen when one is a traitor to it's allies
- Jtsummers 10mo agoMany of us see it, but many others seem to be embracing it and trying to hasten it for reasons unknown. They pine for the glory days of post-WWII US hegemony but are actively undoing the institutions that were instrumental in US economic and political power at that time. They have no coherent world view, they are severely confused, but unfortunately numerous.
- Waterluvian 10mo agoI actually have a greater disgust for those who see it but don't act. I think this line from an incredibly relevant book is precisely this: > "Your ‘little men,’ your Nazi friends, were not against National Socialism in principle. Men like me, who were, are the greater offenders, not because we knew better (that would be too much to say) but because we sensed better. Those who act on behalf of evil are not free from guilt, of course. But the truly damned are those who sense better but look the other way. They walk in the footsteps of the millions who tacitly supported the last time this evil took hold of the world, by not acting. This entire book, but especially this exerpt, is a must read: https://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/511928.htm https://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/511928.htm
- FrustratedMonky 10mo ago"What happened here was the gradual habituation of the people, little by little, to being governed by surprise" Wow, seems on point. Wow "kept us so busy with continuous changes and ‘crises’ and so fascinated, yes, fascinated, by the machinations of the ‘national enemies,’ without and within, that we had no time to think about these dreadful things that were growing, little by little, all around us."
- scottyah 10mo ago
- hypeatei 10mo agoGold front-runs monetary policy, meaning central banks and people use it as a hedge against currency devaluation or other uncertainty (e.g. the U.S. Federal Reserve being taken over by the executive) Now look at the gold chart over this past year. Yeah, people are uneasy and we're likely to see a lot of printing.
- falcor84 10mo agoAs a big nitpick, I found the y axis in that chart ranging between 40%...90% to be horribly misleading.
- drumhead 10mo agoIt's not going to be replaced any time soon, there's no realistic replacement at the moment, but there is a slow movement away from it. We've already seen a stampede into gold from central banks. And pimco have said they're going to relocate funds out of dollar debt. After the nonsense with Greenland no one really wants to give anymore financial power to the US so we'll see more assets kept in local currency or different reserves currencies like the Euro, Yen, Sterling, or ChF.
- thedangler 10mo agoDollar milkshake theory
- quadyeast 10mo agouhm, they need to proof thier article "This increased demand has in turn partly driven the current bull market in gold, with prices forecast to climb toward $4,000/oz by mid-2026."
- bee_rider 10mo agoThey were off, it is going so much faster.
- minkeymaniac 10mo agoArticle is from July 2025, Gold was 3362 at that time
- AnimalMuppet 10mo agoSo gold is up 50% in six months? That's... quite a bit.
- hnburnsy 10mo agoFor those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.
- FpUser 10mo agoAs a long term Gold and Oil pretty much are
- blackoil 10mo agoOil price is highly volatile for it to be reserve currency. A mix of Gold, Yuan, Euro, Dollar makes more sense.
- demosito666 10mo agoEuro?
- tsunamifury 10mo agoThe harsh reality is that a federated state system with a very weak governing body economically and politically is extremely unlikely to be the global trade currency.
- stickfigure 10mo agoLet's what-if a scenario where the Fed is made subservient to the President and the President wants the dials turned to 11, let the next guy deal with the consequences. The dollar isn't indestructible. If not the Euro, what?
- adamc 10mo agoProbably a mix of things, including commodities like gold.
- drinkzima 10mo agoThe issue is that there isn't a great alternative. The euro is difficult to manage because of the diffuse control, pound an even smaller economy, RMB just not global enough (and tough argument to see that happening), gold/bitcoin/whatever not the same inherent stability. Indeed the dollar weakening, but nothing really to take it's place.
- RGamma 10mo agoThe ECB is not diffusely controlled.
- ahnick 10mo agoLiterally cryptocurrencies are the single greatest alternative ever made. Opt out of the system where the government can just print money into thin air and old guys drawing dots on a plot set interest rates in closed meetings. If you want to hedge USD exposure just buy a Bitcoin ETF or if you really can't stomach cryptocurrencies b/c you don't want to be ostracized from the orange site, buy Gold. We are not going back to the way the world was and if you have all your money in USD realize you are on a leaking boat. It is entirely possible to manage funds in crypto for growth and move some amount into more liquid USD denominated assets or MMFs when you need liquidity.
- throwaway132448 10mo agoRight up until you lose your internet access.
- kayamon 10mo agoIt'll all still be there when you get it back.
- throwaway132448 10mo agoWhy would you get it back?
- BowBun 10mo agoJust last week, I was accused on HN of "not knowing what I'm talking about" when sharing data showing, and my interpretation of, a declining US dollar globally. It is so obvious in the context of globalization: countries seeking power will chip away at fiscal dominance of others with a thousand cuts. Why wouldn't they? Especially after years of getting bullied. So many people are so dependent on this reality that I think it's going to happen long before any Americans accept it has happened.
- shevy-java 10mo agoHN may not have the best experts - people are kind of quick to downvote. Almost in a reddit-like fashion.
- therobots927 10mo agoPlenty of Elon musk types / admirers who think that because they’re good with computers they know everything about everything.
- SV_BubbleTime 10mo agoOh, that’s not entirely fair. I feel like the self appointed experts almost have more pretentiousness than Reddit.
- therobots927 10mo agoSimilarly I was downvoted for pointing out that the developed markets index returns (30%) doubled US market returns (15%) over the last year. Simultaneously the value of the dollar has dropped 10%. I simply stated that we’re seeing capital flight from the US. Ray Dalio said the same thing this morning.
- maerF0x0 10mo agoAnd if you look at pricing as a proxy for capital flows, SMMD which is Russell 3000 minus S&P500 has had a heck of a run in 3 months. IMO People are retreating the mag7
- maerF0x0 10mo agoChina is intentionally undermining the dollar in order to try to make the Yuan the world currency[1,2,3]. My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar. Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4] 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_surpassed_the_us_dollar_to_become_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_s... 2 - https://www.economist.com/china/2025/09/10/china-is-ditching-the-dollar-fast https://www.economist.com/china/2025/09/10/china-is-ditching... ( https://archive.is/aNRmm https://archive.is/aNRmm ) 3 - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B006JAM3UU/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/B006JAM3UU/ "Currency Wars" by James Rickards (2011) [4] - https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart
- IshKebab 10mo agoGold is not "real money", come on.
- PlatoIsADisease 10mo agoThe analytical philosopher in me says: "Define real money" I think everyone can agree if you specify your definition.
- maerF0x0 10mo agoIt's a lot less Fiat than USD.
- howmayiannoyyou 10mo agoUSD remains and will remain dominant. Trillions in dollar denominated debt and derivatives, insurance products and assets exist globally. No other country willing to run prolonged & massive deficits required for a reserve currency. No other country, of sufficient size, has as predictable legal and regulatory dispute resolution environment. No other country currently has capabilities to protect overseas shipping - a key component of global trade. USD dominance isn't going anywhere despite hurt feelings over Trump or US policies.
- incomingpain 10mo agoObama during affordable healthcare act discovered they were very dependent on other countries. This was very visible during covid and the 'supply chain' breakdown. Obama started a process, Biden and Trump are in lockstep. They've reduced this issue by about 1/3rd by 2024. Trumps' tariffs are almost certainly going to be upheld by the supreme court. This has led to a reshoring boom and trillions of new investment in the usa. Estimates seem to suggest only a marginal improvement of about 3%, so roughly another 20% improvement. But fixing the very broken trade balances for the USA has long term benefit but it will result in a strong USD, but weaker reserve currency. Obviously the USA is rapidly moving away from bretton woods and being the world police. They will drop below 50%, but nobody else is there to pick up the reserve currency crown. They get all the benefits of seignoiorage and very little of the downsides for decades. Their dominance is over but they clearly saw that the cost-benefit was not worth continuing into the future. Meanwhile, since they stop being the world police and reshored the important things. They dont care about the stability of global trade. Instead their super carrier groups will move to poke their nose only in their own business. You're going to see a fast shift from the usa being hated to being loved over the next 10-20 years.
- shevy-java 10mo agoLet's hope so. The USA has become very aggressive under the TechBro rule.
- mythical_39 10mo agomany of whom are jacked on testosterone supplements. The aggressiveness might be related to that. https://www.them.us/story/testosterone-parties-silicon-valley https://www.them.us/story/testosterone-parties-silicon-valle... https://stand.ie/stand-newsroom/political-power-testosterone https://stand.ie/stand-newsroom/political-power-testosterone
- glemion43 10mo ago[flagged]
- adamc 10mo agoNot really relevant to why there is de-dollarization. And I am not a Trump fan.
- mertleee 10mo ago[dead]
- Waterluvian 10mo agoI'm hopeful that any loss in dominance translates directly to economic pain for all Americans. Nothing will rose those sleepwalking through the rise of fascism faster than not being able to make ends meet.
- shigawire 10mo agoI'm not sure that is true at all. I think the sleepwalkers are just as likely to blame immigrants, foreigners, <insert out group> and continue to hand the current regime more power.
- Waterluvian 10mo agoYeah, on second evaluation I think you're right. People are less likely to be motivated to act, and more likely to be more easily manipulated.
- libraryatnight 10mo agoPart of the strength came from trust and participation in a community. The US has become untrustworthy and hostile toward community.
- mannyv 10mo agoDe-dollarization is one of those things economists love to talk about. The chance of the dollar losing its reserve currency status is slim-to-none. No matter how bizarre the US is, nobody trusts the Chinese Communist Party (CPP). And although the US can manipulate the value of the dollar, its tools are limited compared to the CPP. Plus, the US is still the only country that's willing and able to prop up the world financial system with no immediate benefit (see Argentina). The US can and will intervene when necessary. And as history has shown, the Euro Zone can't really make decisions quickly and effectively. How many times has the Euro been on the verge of collapse in the last 20 years? And is proximity to Russia is, well, risky. In any case there is no currency big enough to take the dollar's spot at this point in time. Trillions of dollars flow through the financial system every day.
- usrbinenv 10mo agoIt's far from slim - it's very likely USD and EUR hegemony will be challenged. Western financial systems are ultimately and inherently discriminatory towards any non-western countries. Where for westerners using those systems enjoy reliability and predictability, the same systems implicitly (and recently, more explicitly) punish non-westerners with excessive compliance and scrutiny. So, basically, if you're from a non-western country, good luck not having your money confiscated or fronzen at some point - and this applies both on state-level and individual level. Of course sensible countries will seek alternatives and will create ways to bypass this elitist bullshit. The whole thing is literally nothing else but inertia at this point and over time both USD and EUR systems are destined to become merely regional.
- vablings 10mo agoWhen you say non-western what do you mean in this context? From what you describe it just sounds like China, Russia and North Korea
- usrbinenv 10mo agoI mean literally any country outside of Europe, North america, Australia, New Zealand and maybe some non-western exceptions like Singapore.
- hintymad 10mo agoHonest question: isn't it just a matter of time before US dollar loses its dominance, given that US has been losing its manufacturing business? I mean, can people really keep investing in the US market if they need less and less stuff produced by the US?
- stickfigure 10mo agoWhy is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software? Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time.
- marcosdumay 10mo ago> Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time. Well, at least up to 2024... I think when people run the next number, there will be a surprise there.
- pessimizer 10mo agoSoftware can leave your country in a fraction of a second. Manufacturing is infrastructure. This is also basic. Manufacturing in the US is shrinking, comparatively with other countries that actually make things. People just think they can just play with numbers, categories and dollar values to hide it. The US has been playing a currency game since 1980 to make up for the loss of the free money it got for reconstructing Europe and Japan, and using that money to buy things from impoverished workers in China. And as China got on its feet through careful planning and management, it moved to India, Pakistan, Mexico, Indonesia, the Philippines, anywhere that was willing to stomp on its workers and pollute its air and water. Now China has gotten to the point that it is a viable alternative to the US, so the US can't unilaterally set terms anymore for its suppliers. It's dumping US treasuries. It's competing for natural resources in countries that the US just tried to topple and steal their natural resources through sieges that ironically served to cut the US's legs from under them, giving China a huge discount. The game is up. China going from nowhere to the greatest economy on the planet in 50 years is what happens when you manage and cultivate manufacturing. US real estate and an economy run on luxury consumption is what you get when you outsource manufacturing and play word games to cover it up. We literally can't tariff China significantly, they could crush our economy just by embargoing us like we freely embargo everyone else. That's the power of a manufacturing base. We might want to fix our bridges, too.
- WarmWash 10mo agoTrump is a populist president who sees the value of US exports (on the back of blue collar work) being more important than global dollar dominance. This plays hand in hand with his championing of tariffs (foreign goods become more expensive) and hostility towards immigrants (apply upwards pressure on domestic wages). If you cannot see this, or cannot believe it, you should probably check if you are in a ideological bubble. Is the world going to de-dollarize though? Probably not, shy of an EU independence, which is about as likely as Europeans adopting an American work culture. Although, I won't rule out the possibility of the EU moving it's eggs to China's basket either. What a world that would be, a Sino-Euro axis and an North American axis. Whew
- AnimalMuppet 10mo agoThe EU is not going to move into China's basket, not if you mean using the yuan as a reserve currency. There's too much political risk - the value is at the control of political decisions by the CCP.
- WarmWash 10mo agoThe EU is going to have to (very painfully) grow legs then. The fact that the US provided the majority of weaponry, and half the money to Ukraine should have been shocking wake up call to every European. But instead the vibe seems to be "Americans are so dumb to live the way they do".
- pessimizer 10mo ago> Trump is a populist president who sees the value of US exports (on the back of blue collar work) being more important than global dollar dominance. This plays hand in hand with his championing of tariffs (foreign goods become more expensive) and hostility towards immigrants (apply upwards pressure on domestic wages). It has nothing really to do with populism. It's the US's only rational option. You can't just run trade deficits forever, no matter what the people who make money from trade deficits tell you. A parasite that gets so big that it disables the host is a dead parasite. People act like this is the how the US always worked. We just started this with Reagan, and every moment since then has seen the rise of finance, the victory of unproductive capital and speculation, and the decline in domestic manufacturing and standard of living that you would expect. There's never been a moment where there's been anything to point at for a finance capitalist to feel vindicated that his success would lead to the US's greater good, so he resorts to claiming that it is simply impossible to be any other way. At best this is sunk cost fallacy, but at worst, it's just propagandistic gaslighting from a bunch of people who don't have any connection or loyalty to anyone in the US, don't care when it's people suffer, don't care how its children will live, and will just leave if their houses start to feel insecure. There's your populism. I agree with your assessment, but Europe is in unique trouble that the rest of the world has no need to relate to. The US will simply have Europeans jailed or killed who steer Europe counter to US interests. Right now the US is on a slow road to peace with Russia, while trying to cultivate and maximize European animosity and estrangement from Russia. The world in which the US is mocked in Europe by NATO (a device to carry out US interests) for trying to appease Russia is a world that no one but a realist could have predicted. Everybody else will de-dollarize, and the US will threaten Europe and the UK with tariffs if they don't peg the Euro and pound to the dollar. The US will be trading freely with Russia and China, while sanctioning Europeans for buying energy from Russia and bribing European governments to harass Chinese companies.
- jmyeet 10mo agoThe most important thing to understand is where the value of the US dollar comes from. It's the US military. More generally speaking, it's US foreign policy. The US military is the force that enables foreign policy. Understand this and you'll avoid falling into various traps and conspiracy theories. For example, there are people who believe that the US invasion of Iraq was caused by Iraq wanting to sell oil in euros instead of dollars. This is a nonsen theory because every oil transaction could be denominated in euros tomorrow and it wouldn't change anything. The same demand for US dollars would still exist so people would simply convert to euros, buy oil then convert back. This same understanding debunks the "threat" of a BRICS alliance. The real problem, if you can call it that, is we have an administration who is both incredibly inept AND intent on destroying the post-WW2 world order. Wealth inequality is getting so bad and the deficit is so bad. Worse, nobody expects either to improve anytime soon. I'm not saying the budget needs to be in balance. It doesn't. A country doesn't work like a business when you can print your own money. But at some point, crippling public debt (in terms of GDP) will devalue the dollar. Put another way: the illusion of "safety" is at risk. It's just a question of when the vibes shift.
- mythical_39 10mo agoYour first paragraph is close to correct, but have you thought of the difference between supportive vs coercive power? If the Russian army is the force that enables Russian foreign policy, they why do some people in Ukraine think that they don't want to do things the Russian way? Likewise, I wonder how helpful the US military will be at forcing our former allies to do things they don't want to do?
- jmyeet 10mo agoIt's a fair question but the answer is fairly simple: the Russian military simply isn't strong. The only reason they haven't been bombed back into the Stone Age is because they have a nuclear arsenal. That has limited the West's response to being "proportionate". The Russian-Ukraine front is kinda like WW1. There's no real air power to speak of. The front is dominated by artillery and infantry and fortifications like trenches. Russia cannot project military power anywhere like how the US can and the US has decades of projecting that power to force countries to capitulate, essentially. Europe outsourced their security to the US, for example. But make no mistake: NATO is a protection racket. It projects American power into Europe. This is one reason why I call this administration inept because they seem intent on splintering NATO, which actually diminishes American power. Just like disbanding USAID diminished American soft power, and quite cheaply at that. The lesson since at least the (W) Bush administration is that only nuclear weapons can guarantee your survival.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- belter 10mo agoKey Takeaways from the JP Morgan Research: • Despite a smaller share of global trade and output, the dollar still dominates in transactions like trade invoicing. • Dedollarization is advancing in central bank reserves, with USD share at a two decade low. • Foreign ownership of US Treasuries has declined for 15 years, signaling reduced external reliance on the dollar. • The shift is most visible in commodities, where an increasing share of energy is priced in non USD contracts.
- lvl155 10mo agoUp until about a month ago, I’d have argued it’s overblown. However, I think this time it’s a real possibility and perhaps even certain. This country is absolutely going down the toilet and China is using this opportunity to strengthen its position. Things will get far worse as the economy rolls over this year and AI bubble pops. It’s a perfect storm.
- glass1122 10mo ago[dead]
- legitster 10mo agoIt's no secret that our current US administration is envious of China. So in no small part they probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. Drop the value internationally to incentivize American exports, and manipulate the hell out of it. (Hence why they have dropped inflation as a political issue - some in the administration are essentially rooting for inflation to get much, much worse). It should go without saying that this would be shortsighted - China made it work because they were able to take advantage of a strong international market denominated in USD. The US cannot destroy our own common market and currency and expect to take advantage of it. Furthermore, we know what a de-dollarized world looks like - imperialism. If you need to secure oil/mineral/food for your economy but you need expensive foreign currencies to acquire it, it suddenly becomes much more economically appealing to take the resources.
- chrisco255 10mo agoNobody is cheering for inflation to get worse, they are celebrating it being held down to 2.7% after higher inflation a few years ago. The U.S. is a net exporter of oil and food and self-sufficent for majority of its mineral needs as well. There is no need for U.S. to crash its currency to incentivize domestic production, it can just impose tariffs on imports to do so.
- thatguy0900 10mo agoThe problem with tariffs is really just trumps complete instability. Why would anyone invest in domestic manufactoring when Trump wildly flip flops on all tariff policy using it as a diplomatic punishment and reward system? Especially when his tariffs in general are legally questionable at best and the other half of us politics are against them just in principal. Imagine investing millions in a domestic factory and then trump gets a personalized jet from some random nation so the tariffs you were depending on for your profit margin are gone. Or Trump loses the midterms and now tariffs as a policy are gone. Unless Trump both becomes a dictator and sets the tariffs in stone without changing them too much, or democrats come out in wide support of tariffs themselves, I don't see how you could use them to invest your money.
- kaycebasques 10mo agoHow do people hold yuan? I was surprised at the lack of ETFs in this space. There's of course a lot of Chinese equity ETFs. There used to be a pure currency ETF but it was liquidated a couple years back. CBON seems like a good way to get exposure via bonds, but its AUM is quite low.
- SV_BubbleTime 10mo ago> How do people hold yuan? Actual answer? In global real estate. So… they don’t or “it’s complicated”.
- CrzyLngPwd 10mo agoThe dollar is a weapon, and when the US can print as much as it likes, the odds are always stacked in favour of the US. Trouble will really come when the US tries to get out of its ridiculous debt trap. What will they do, wave a wand and their debt goes away?
- RealityVoid 10mo agoA large amount of the debt is owed to the US population. I doubt that the debt trap is that large of an existential problem, but having trade alliances break down is much more of a big deal.
- mempko 10mo agoThe reason de-dollarization should be concerning to US citizens and many don't understand is that having the dollar as a reserve currency is a huge asset to the US. The US has control over how many dollars are created and where they are spent. If countries are willing to sell to us for dollars, then the world becomes a friendly market for raw materials and products to be vacuumed up here. Losing the dollar as a reserve currency is losing the empire.
- kshri24 10mo agoIndia will be chairing BRICS this year. And Trump decided to fuck with the wrong country, especially when India-US relations were at its peak. This year will mark the beginning of the end of USD as a global reserve.
- trash_cat 10mo agoThe former IMF chief Kenneth Rogoff has been talking about this and appeared on NYT Ezra Klein's podcast that I highly recommend[0]. He also talks about China and the role of the dollar at the end with Dwarkesh Patel[1]. A lot of the discussion I see here is adressed by him. [0] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pT2cohNt6a4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pT2cohNt6a4 [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2b4TjQa4gk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2b4TjQa4gk
- yalogin 10mo agoThe event has been in motion with every action from the administration just cementing it more. Forget about the dollar’s dominance, at this point I am not forked that he will usher in ww3, or at the very least a war between Europe as the US seems very likely
- tartoran 10mo agoThere's no point in a war between US and Europe, it's not gonna happen. However bad a war would be, the current situation isn't much better. There's definitely a rift going on and will cause irreversible changes to the US - EU partnership. Oh well, not only EU, it seems like US is losing friends at a very fast rate with Trump at the whelm of the country.
- jorblumesea 10mo agoI'm surprised that people are so surprised by this. Funds operate with risk management models and practices. As the US becomes more unstable, politically, these will weigh in on how much money people keep in US markets. US threats to annex Canada and invade greenland. US kidnapping foreign heads of state. Actively using federal agents as shock troops against blue cities. All of this has true economic impact, either real in terms of losses but also USD as a stable currency run by legitimate people. Would they implement capital flight controls? if you invest in the US, can you get your money out? No one knows but it seems increasingly less likely. Red lines are being crossed weekly. The country is heading towards a decline into a developing world style authoritarian dictatorship.
- epistasis 10mo agoWith the pace of news these days, especially economic news, I think this deserves a (2025) in the title.
- maxglute 10mo agoWell the real question: Is the US losing interest in reserve dominance? Contrary to popular opinion, IMO PRC doesn't want reserve currency trade off (triffin / trade deficits etc). What PRC wants is to secure her own interests with RMB, which is mostly happening, energy contracts, lots of bilateral trade happening in RMB now. What PRC also wants is to make maintaining reserve USD onerous, i.e. high rates, high debt servicing... which already indirectly limits US in real ways like reduced defense acquisitions in last few years. PRC wants USD exorbitant privilege to be just exorbitant. Then US incentivized to dump system (etc debasing) which will fuck over global USD users and tank US reputation even more. A lot of US actions make sense when you realize Trump doesn't want to deal with an increasingly unprofitable global utility. PRC doesn't want to step in to build new pipelines, they want to see US (mis)manage existing US owned plumbing that everyone is using so poorly it fucks up things at home and for everyone else, meanwhile PRC has comfy off the grid setup for herself and her guests.
- gyanchawdhary 10mo agoI usually read piaeces like this as bullish for the US .. the truth is .. neither the author nor anyone else can really call how this plays out .. but what is clear (and f***g obvious) is that there’s still no country as economically dynamic or creative as the US .. and if not the dollar .. then what realistically takes its place ... the euro, RMB, rupee? None come close yet in terms of depth, liquidity, or trust ... these type of de dollarization makes for an interesting news cycle and discussion, but it’s a super long road from theory to reality ..
- Esophagus4 10mo agoIn the short run, I agree. But what I do worry about are the long term consequences of US behavior. Even the largest empires aren't on top forever (even before Trump, China was investing heavily in tech and has made significant inroads. India is developing, too. Who knows?). There may be no country as economically powerful today, but tomorrow is a new day. These shifts don't happen in the short term, but over decades, this could be a big problem for the US if our approach continues this way. A business goes bankrupt slowly, then all at once. I worry that we are speed running the "slowly" part of our journey.
- blackoil 10mo agoIs World in immediate trouble? I see three posts discussing collapse of US currency and market on homepage, and this site actively avoids anything political.
- consumer451 10mo agoRelated is the PM of Canada’s speech at Davos today. I don’t think that I have heard such a blunt assessment of the past and future from a politician, ever. This may be a historically significant speech. https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100 https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100
- baxtr 10mo ago"If we’re not at table, we’re on the menu" Good speech indeed
- throw310822 10mo agoMark Carney is a great orator, I was impressed just a few days ago by his speech after meeting Xi Jinping in China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLasfU4l__A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLasfU4l__A
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- consumer451 10mo agoNot only a great orator, but look at his resume: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Carney https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Carney This man is clearly one of the leaders of the new free world.
- mdnahas 10mo agoI started following him after he headed the UK central bank after running Canada’s central bank!
- porkbrain 10mo agoHe quotes Václav Havel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_the_Powerless https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_the_Powerless
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- czhu12 10mo agoThe ultimate check and balance was always supposed to be the US consumer. It seems any major disruption to purchasing power will result in a backlash large enough to undo any policy and administration. I’d still bet that any sudden movements in this direction will be checked
- jorblumesea 10mo agoI wouldn't count on the people that elected trump, twice (!), to come to their senses. The American voter cannot be trusted to do what is right for the country.
- Havoc 10mo ago>It seems any major disruption to purchasing power will result in a backlash large enough to undo any policy and administration. That assumes it can be undone. Reversing course and hoping the damage done heals isn't a sure bet. Especially with timing delays. There is definitely real risk here
- tencentshill 10mo agoMore and more of the people actually spending money in the economy are concentrating in the top 10%. They don't NEED the millions of everyday consumers to maintain the status quo.
- AbstractH24 10mo agoAs they say about bankruptcy. First it happens slowly then quickly. I suspect were about to see that pivot
- nubg 10mo agoDo i need to stop investing in msci world? what else would i invest in?
- parf02 10mo agoCurious how HN is using this information to plan your investing approach. Does the typical approach, broad market globally diversified still hold assuming dedollarization?
- Havoc 10mo agoYou do get World excluding USA ETFs yes - including denominated in say EUR. It does risk missing out on AI though (or AI crash depending on your perspective).
- orsenthil 10mo agoThis was written in July 01, 2025, and lot has happened since then. Is there any update to this report?
- mlindner 10mo agoThere's one of these articles it feels like every month. And as usual, Betteridge's Law of Headlines is at play here. There's no replacing the US dollar until a better option comes along. You need a currency that's open (which rules out Yuan), a currency that is backed up by a strong government (which rules out places like Russia, India, Japan, and the UK), and you'd want something that isn't subject to the same geopolitical rules as the US dollar (which rules out the Euro).
- resurrected546 10mo ago[dead]
- yieldcrv 10mo agoso nobody read the article and instead regurgitated pre-existing sentiment, while forgetting the golden rule of journalism: if an article ends in a question mark, the answer is no. > the greenback dominated 88% of traded FX volumes — close to record highs — while the Chinese yuan (CNY) made up just 7%, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). > Likewise, there is little sign of USD erosion in trade invoicing. “The share of USD and EUR has held steady over the past two decades at around 40–50%. there is currently no other alternative to meet the global liquidity demands
- ptx 10mo agoThat first sentence starts with "In 2022,", so presumably the numbers are different now, but I couldn't find anything in the article about how things have changed in the last four years.
- yieldcrv 10mo agoYou just have to be in it Liquidity is atrocious as soon as you leave USD rails and are trying to move more than a few million (in notional usd terms), let alone billions Downright terrible, its actually amazing how bad it is. “Finance” as infrastructure isn’t anywhere near finished and swapping the currency rails would be very hard Its more than people just agreeing to use a different currency, which means its more than all traders and merchants dying, the next best currencies have structural problems. Their central banks trying to pump the market full of liquidity would destabilize those currencies far more than it would the USD doing the same thing But I’m open to being impressed
- glitchc 10mo agoThe USD's status as a reserve currency is directly linked to it's trade deficit with the rest of the world. Because all other entities (individuals, corporations, organizations) want to keep their wealth in USD, there's a strong incentive to sell (goods, services, infrastructure) to the US and obtain USD in return. Conversely, there's a strong disincentive to buy from the US because goods have to be paid for with USD, which means parting with the very currency one is trying to accrue. One of the most effective ways to ease the trade deficit is to reduce USD's status as a reserve currency.
- stronglikedan 10mo agoBetteridge (correctly) says "no".
- christkv 10mo agoHave people completely missed the stable coin move that will ensure there is a massive continuing market for USD. The prognosis is 2 trillion USD around 2028. Thats a lot of bonds that will need to be purchased to back the coin.
- mullingitover 10mo agoI remember studying pre-WWI history, and particularly how carefully Bismarck arranged German foreign policy like he was the diplomatic equivalent of Bobby Fischer. Everything was situated perfectly and Germany was totally content. Then along came the absolute moron Wilhelm, and he managed to Leroy Jenkins Germany's beautifully arranged relationships into an aggressive, tactless nightmare where all Germany's allies were turned into enemies, and everything turned out exactly like you'd expect. As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes.
- arbuge 10mo agoWho would you say the Bismarck equivalent for the USA is/was?
- mullingitover 10mo agoI wouldn't put it on one person, it was basically everyone between Roosevelt and Obama. Not that any of them were exactly geniuses, but we've gone from mostly sober drivers to someone blowing a 0.5 BAC.
- tonymet 10mo agodo you mind qualifying this? it sounds like you mean dollar hegemony, which I might accept, but if you mean foreign policy in general, I can think of many invasions , financial crises, cold wars, lost prosperity for most of those Presidents.
- arduanika 10mo agoI think we're talking less about the aspect of Bismarck where he won 3 big wars and lost none, and more about the part where he set up a delicate system that was maybe too complex for his successors to maintain, especially under idiosyncratic leaders. We're not talking about financial crises. Bismarck did not stop the Panic of 1873 (in fact, you could wave your hands and argue he indirectly caused it). As far as "who set up the US empire, in all its complexity?", I'd argue for the 4 guys I named in my other comment, but your list might differ. And if you're just interested in the dollar system per se, I'd probably go with Harry Dexter White, who strangely enough turned out to be a Soviet spy. Oh, and if you want a pretty clear analogy from Bismarck's system to earlier US monetary history: Benjamin Strong got the Federal Reserve System up and running and figured out a bunch of the right tricks, but he died in 1928 without getting his successors up to speed on how to run things. They failed miserably in next couple years. Bad timing!
- sebastianconcpt 10mo agoIndia pays one 1.4 GW nuclear power plant in yuan and they start talking about global de-dollarization as if people can't think in proportions anymore?
- jijji 10mo agoThe article is written by JP Morgan which is a little odd but even stranger is they mention of all places China as being a great investment place to put your money, when in reality they can literally take your money away from you and nationalize your business under their current laws.
- jeron 10mo agoI'm glad you're one of the few to call this out. JPM has hedged its bets against American interests and holds a ton of crypto. Of course they'd put out an article like this
- vishnugupta 10mo agoTitle needs to be updated when the 1 July 2025 date. For a moment I thought JPM put it out in sort of a response to criminal charges against Jerome Powell, fed chair. It’s probably unprecedented? Wild times.
- fumo_lover 10mo agoWhat world do you guys live in? The dollar is not held by some mythical rules and polices. It has it's status because of aircraft carriers and 30000+ fighter jets US has. No other country is even remotely close to that level of offensive military power.
- a115ltd 10mo agoIs the US dollar losing its dominance? The answer is both A) yes and B) it doesn't matter. Yes, US dollar is losing a bit of power and influence. This is likely to continue. Making inferences about the US global dominance based on this fact is misguided. US global dominance is as strong as ever and, if anything, getting stronger. US has very successfully managed to move the game a level above currency, to direct governance via financial, legal, political and military means. It has made any meaningful competitors either entirely irrelevant (e.g. Russia), pretty well aligned (e.g. India) or pretty well contained (e.g. China) It's blue skies ahead.
- hashstring 10mo agoAs strong as ever… The US has a strong military but its dominance position is declining rapidly. It’s going around threatening the whole world. It’s failing to effectively address their problem with China and Russia. Domestically, 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, you have ICE running around and Medicaid being slashed to afford that. All the leaves are brown…
- warkdarrior 10mo ago> direct governance via financial [means] This is going to disappear if USD is no longer the dominant currency.
- a115ltd 10mo agoThe exact point I'm making is that this is NOT the case! US has super strong financial control over most of the world in a way which is NOT connected to the strength of the US currency.
- watwut 10mo agoUSA is doing everything in its power to make Russia great again. It was in great position to make it irrelevant, but it has choosen to make itself Russia like and snatch defest out of the jaws of victory against Russia .
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- markhydra 10mo agoIt's a small relief to have emerging markets holding dollars. Hopefully their economies will continue to grow and that could be a long term benefit to offset the slow de-dollarization across the rest of the world. It would be in US interest to invest into those emerging markets.
- RRRA 10mo agoWhen is everyone going to dump their US bonds? Will Groenland be the redline, finally?
- robinsoncrusue 10mo agoContrary to what everyone thinks - Dollar losing its reserve currency _canbe_ a good thing. https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/ https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/
- epistasis 10mo agoI can't figure out what in that article is supposed to be a good thing, and the article doesn't seem to hold an opinion of that sort. My first question is: good for whom? Second question is: how? It's definitely good for holders of whatever replaces the dollar, but it's disastrous for everybody in the US, as far as I can tell.
- robinsoncrusue 10mo ago> As applied to the United States, the current account version of Triffin runs as follows. The global accumulation of dollar reserves requires the United States to run a current account deficit. Since desired reserves rise with world nominal GDP, which is growing faster than US nominal GDP, the growth of dollar reserves will raise US external indebtedness unsustainably. Either the United States will not run the current account deficits, leading to an insufficiency of global reserves. Or US indebtedness will rise without limit, undermining the value of the dollar and the reserves denominated in it.
- epistasis 10mo agoCan you be a bit more explicit about what the benefit is, and who benefits? It's not clear what your thinking is.
- wesapien 10mo agoBlackrock released a document you can download that outlines their 2026 outlook. A key point there was: "We go underweight long-term US Treasuries." A sign of bearishness on USD due to fiscal policy. https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/publications/outlook https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-inves...
- buellerbueller 10mo agoOne can only hope.
- toephu2 10mo agoInteresting how gold hit a record high today of $4700+/oz.
- treebeard901 10mo agoYes
- evklein 10mo agoI would imagine U.S. foreign policy, particularly the prolific use of sanctions contributes to this wane as well. There was some discussion about this a while ago - effectively as the U.S. continues to rely on a strategy of imposing sanctions against foreign adversaries, those adversaries increasingly reorient their economy towards non-U.S. economies such as Russia or China. The more the U.S. utilizes sanctions, the less effective they become.
- mikewarot 10mo agoMy understanding is that the standard of living in Britain dropped about 75% when Britain lost the reserve status of the Pound Sterling. I expect it to be worse here in the US. I wasn't expecting us to try to speedrun it, though. I thought we had a decade or two left, now I think it'll happen before the end of the year.
- holoduke 10mo agoThe US is losing respect in general. Its foreign policy which was never really friendly, now is really really bad. Many countries on Africa genuinely prefer countries like Russia. That's something unheard of 20 years ago.
- soliax 10mo ago[dead]
- jollyllama 10mo agoBetteridge's Law strikes again. As of Q2 2025 (roughly the time that TFA was published) there is more dollar-denominated debt than ever before [0]. And its value relative to other currencies (as of this month), while subject to cyclical fluctuations, is on par for the post-Covid cycles and higher than pre-2020 levels [1]. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS
- gastonmorixe 10mo agoInteresting the wikipedia article of the Mar-a-Lago Accord has been deleted https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar-a-Lago_Accord https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar-a-Lago_Accord Last archival I've found https://web.archive.org/web/20251110042359/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar-a-Lago_Accord https://web.archive.org/web/20251110042359/https://en.wikipe...
- howenterprisey 10mo ago> This appears to be an AI-generated draft with severe hallucination problems bordering on WP:HOAX. For one, it calls it the "Margo Largo Accord" -- a name that is not and never was real. The draft also claims the accord was already introduced, and goes into detail about its supposed contents, effects, and reactions to it; the problem is, no actual accord was introduced at the time (or now), so pretty much all of that is made up. The sourcing gives an impression of WP:SIGCOV [significant coverage] but almost all of it appears to be background information about various topics that aren't the accord. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletion/Mar-a-Lago_Accord https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Articles_for_deletio..., the discussion that concluded with the article's deletion
- gastonmorixe 10mo agoYeah, I've read that and find it a little sus. The article for me was fine even if not perfect. It's the first time in my internet life (20y+) that I go find a wiki article to share to a friend because the US keeps weakening and I found it gone. Didn't know it was that easy to remove a wikipedia article by just hinting it was AI generated.
- TesterVetter 10mo ago[dead]
- StealthyStart 10mo agoI have been interested in this topic for a while now, and have run different scenarios. What is everyone's thought on Chinese Yuan or Euro as the reserve currency?
- tim333 10mo agoThe Yuan isn't free floating enough. Banks will probably hold a mix of currencies including the Euro and others.
- h4kunamata 10mo agoCountries are learning that the USA is no longer what it used to be, on the surface they are trying to please Trump to avoid getting more tariffs but on the ground they are no longer depending on the dollar. Wait until Greenland drama goes sideways, then you will see the dollar getting washed out as the international currency.
- cco 10mo agoI strongly encourage interested folks to read Miran's "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System" (I won't link directly since it auto-downloads a PDF). Miran, and his thinking, clearly have this admin's ear and they're following many of the prescribed steps in his white paper. To the T frankly. So if you're surprised by the USD devaluing by 10% last year or the immense pressure to drop the fed rate to under 2% by next year, well the reasoning and strategy is all laid out very clearly in the above whitepaper. No confusion necessary! They explain every (terrifying) bit of their plan in that paper. What is left out, and why I say it is terrifying, is that the whitepaper is academic and basically leaves uncovered any of the _political_ ramifications of these economic changes. And of course, those political ramifications can be immense.
- cogman10 10mo agoPeter Navarro is the idiot whose mostly pushing the Trump economic policies. I say idiot, because he is really a complete and total crackpot. He's written a couple of papers where he cites himself on uncited principles as if they were ironclad economics. A flat earther to an astronomer is what Navarro is to an economist. He is anti-trade and pro-isolation. He actually wants the US dollar to lose it's status as a world currency. His thought? If it does, then we'll better address national debt. Basically "Let's light the house on fire so we finally address the upstairs draft."
- cco 10mo agoYup! I too was befuddled at why the admin was purposefully devaluing the dollar, but well, like you said, they tell you plainly if you go read and listen to them. Make decisions accordingly folks! They want the dollar down >30% from where it was when they took over, we're about 1/3 the way there so far, be prepared for more.
- windowpains 10mo agoTurns out, Putin was a genius after all. And maybe the optics of Gaza wasn’t helpful either, that seemed to be the moment Macron et al finally turned against the west.
- BLACKCRAB 10mo ago[dead]
- ece 10mo agoI remember looking this up a while ago: https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-us-dollar.html https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/c... A 1.1% devaluation doesn't seem so bad per year, except for the political risk and economic uncertainty.
- gigatexal 10mo agoWhat a hilariously sad legacy that would be for DJT to forever be known for if he pissed off our allies so much and was such a garbage leader that dollar domination died with his legacy.
- tomashm 10mo agoPersonally, I’m selling my U.S. stocks and bond holdings in my pension portfolio. Partly because I see them as a risk, and partly for moral reasons: I don’t want to support what I see as the current U.S. oligarchy. I'm also sad to say I've also bought 4 Teslas until I realized how bad things are, but I'll send no more money in that direction from now on, and I try to convince people I know to do the same. Our company cloud infrastructure at Azure has already been replaced by VPSs at Hetzner in Europe.