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I think there’s plenty of interesting debates to be had about immigration policy and its effects on the labor market, but one thing worth noting here is that th

• jpadkins 1y ago
  The top end of H1B has been great for America. In the last few decades, there has been growth of abuse of the program to get mid level talent at below market rates which really hurts the middle class in America. People need to understand that most reformists don't want to get rid of the truly exceptional immigration to the US. We need to limit the volume, especially the immigrants that are directly competing with a hollowed out middle class in the US. Let me know if you want further reading on this topic.
  • RealityVoid 1y ago
    I am skeptical that _that_ is what's hollowing the middle class in America, it's equally easy to point to income inequality for this. But you have your story you believe, I'm resigned that the die are already cast. It's kind of sad to see the accelerated downfall of your country.
    • vntok 1y ago
      > But you have your story you believe, I'm resigned that the die are already cast. But that is your story you believe, consider that the parent commenter has the exact same (mirrored) mindset. A useful segue to avoid you or them "being resigned": given that you say you're "skeptical", what would be the minimal proof you'd consider valid for you to change your mind?
      • RealityVoid 1y ago
        The discussion is already dead, there's no point trying to convince anyone because the discussion is politicized and the current admin doesn't care about petty things like reality. Whoever is right won't matter in this stage, it matters who's saying it. I might be wrong, fully willing to cede the point, but this whole thing going on is more than _just this point_.
    • glitchc 1y ago
      [flagged]
    • jpadkins 1y ago
      It's not the only reason, but it's one of the likely causes. Like most complex issues, it's multi-casual. You can't import 100k+ workers per year into a country and have no effect on wages! I understand the net economic impact is potentially positive, but I am speaking to the direct economic impact of the workers being displaced.
      • giantg2 1y ago
        Just to add, we are also offshoring 300k jobs every year. This makes the impact even larger.
    • jpadkins 1y ago
      > it's equally easy to point to income inequality for this Have you ever considered what causes income inequality? Maybe policy that favors globalist, ownership class over salaried workers? H1B in it's current form favors owners/managers over workers! We are saying the same thing. We have to analyze the causes of income inequality in order to solve it. I will leave you with one last thought: the states with the lowest gini co-efficient are the ones that have been more conservative over time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_income_inequality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territ... policy matters!
      • selimthegrim 1y ago
        I am writing you from one of the two red Southern ones that is a glaring counterexample.
        • 3cKU 1y ago
          "the states with the lowest gini co-efficient are the ones that are the least diverse" seems a better fit.
          • mlrtime 1y ago
            Diversity is just a statistic, it's neither good or bad in either direction.
            • ThunderSizzle 1y ago
              Not all forms of diversity is strength. Mixing a wolf with a bunch of sheep isn't diversity, it's dinner time.
              • defrost 1y ago
                Racial purity ain't all it's heil'd up to be either: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38571-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38571-1 https://www.newscientist.com/article/2342731-neanderthal-family-life-revealed-by-ancient-dna-from-siberian-cave/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/2342731-neanderthal-fam... Have a barbie, find some middle ground: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGdj1TwBU1w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGdj1TwBU1w
    • giantg2 1y ago
      "it's equally easy to point to income inequality for this." Of course - they're connected. Taking advantage of labor is a big part of income inequality, including the way H1B is used/abused.
  • deleted 1y ago
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  • jb1991 1y ago
    This is exactly correct. The H1B visa has not lived up to its original premise in quite some time. A very significant percentage of people who are now working on these visas are not offering anything beyond what is already available within the American workforce, except for lower compensation.
    • abletonlive 1y ago
      I’ve never worked with an H1B software engineer from India that was anything but mediocre. I know they exist and my sample size isn’t huge but at least 3-4 of the H1Bs I’ve directly worked with in the past decade were completely unnecessary and could have been filled by a US citizen
      • gorbachev 1y ago
        A very large majority of all software engineers are mediocore or at least not exceptional. I've worked with some extraordinary H1B sw engineers. I would say the ratio of great to mediocore is about the same as for non-H1B sw engineers.
        • kelnos 1y ago
          I think perhaps part of the point being made is that the ratio should not be the same. We should be bringing in higher-than-average and exceptional talent via these visas. If we're just mirroring the skills and talent level of the native workforce, we should be drawing from the native workforce. I don't buy the argument that there's a big shortage of talent for these jobs in the US, especially in a job market like there is right now. Having said that, I do know quite a few people who have been in the US on H-1B visas, and many of them are exceptionally skilled. I think those are the kinds of people we should be granting H-1B visas. I also know quite a few H-1B holders who I wouldn't ever want to work with again, and there are too many people in that group. Not saying there aren't plenty of US citizens I wouldn't want to work with ever again, but that's a separate issue.
        • paulryanrogers 1y ago
          But isn't the point of H1B to bring in exceptional talent? Not create indentured servants of foreign workers?
  • K0balt 1y ago
    Idk what visa program was is under, but home depot used to bring in immigrants to run their stores (stockers , cashiers, etc ) under a program that meant that some contractor was putting 12 people in a 3 bedroom apartment and charging them big fees to come work for minimum wage. This was a while ago, but I was in the rental business and got to see it first hand and talk to the workers. It was extremely exploitative. 5 years ago they were still doing it my hometown, I haven’t checked since. It was mostly Eastern Europeans.
    • shagie 1y ago
      The H-1B requires that the position requires a specialization. https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/h-1b-specialty-occupations https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/h-1b-spec... The occupation requires: Theoretical and practical application of a body of highly specialized knowledge; and Attainment of a bachelor's or higher degree in a directly related* specific specialty (or its equivalent) as a minimum for entry into the occupation in the United States. The position must also meet one of the following criteria to qualify as a specialty occupation: A U.S. bachelor’s or higher degree in a directly related specific specialty, or its equivalent, is normally the minimum entry requirement for the particular occupation; A U.S. bachelor’s or higher degree in a directly related specific specialty, or its equivalent, is normally required to perform job duties in parallel positions among similar organizations in the employer’s industry in the United States; The employer, or third party if the beneficiary will be staffed to that third party, normally requires a U.S. bachelor’s or higher degree in a directly related specific specialty, or its equivalent, to perform the job duties of the position; or The specific duties of the offered position are so specialized, complex, or unique that the knowledge required to perform them is normally associated with the attainment of a U.S. bachelor’s or higher degree in a directly related specific specialty, or its equivalent.* The positions that you're describing do not meet the criteria for the H-1B. If it was under the H-1B, then it should have been reported for fraud. Chances are this was done as a seasonal H-2B non-agricultural worker (likely under a seasonal need) https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-2b-temporary-non-agricultural-workers https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary... To qualify for H-2B nonimmigrant classification, the petitioner must establish that: There are not enough U.S. workers who are able, willing, qualified, and available to do the temporary work. Employing H-2B workers will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of similarly employed U.S. workers. When you see fraud, report it. https://www.uscis.gov/report-fraud/uscis-tip-form https://www.uscis.gov/report-fraud/uscis-tip-form
  • legitster 1y ago
    The median pay of an H1B visa holder is $118k. The 25th percentile is $90k. This is from the government's official data: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/OLA_Signed_H-1B_Characteristics_Congressional_Report_FY2023.pdf https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/O... Any suggestion that the program is dragging wages down instead of dragging wages up is not just misleading but factually wrong.
    • spwa4 1y ago
      Haven't you heard how cheating that works? This is what was filled in on the H1B applications. The government doesn't check that, and so companies don't pay. Second, Indians have to pay their bosses to get a job. Their real pay is at least $20k lower. And there's far worse as well.
      • mikestorrent 1y ago
        Do you have any articles or anything on the latter? I had not heard of that.
        • spwa4 1y ago
          Easy to find: https://www.epi.org/publication/new-evidence-widespread-wage-theft-in-the-h-1b-program/ https://www.epi.org/publication/new-evidence-widespread-wage... https://www.epi.org/blog/new-data-infosys-tata-abuse-h-1b-program/ https://www.epi.org/blog/new-data-infosys-tata-abuse-h-1b-pr... https://www.aila.org/ice-it-company-pleads-guilty-h-1b-visa-fraud https://www.aila.org/ice-it-company-pleads-guilty-h-1b-visa-... https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/how-to-recognize-and-report-cases-of-h-1b-fraud-or-abuse-by-employer.html https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/how-to-recognize-and...
    • foota 1y ago
      What's the median pay of big tech workers? I started at 150k 8 years ago as a new grad, for comparison.
      • 1y ago
  • Calc13 1y ago
    Agreed, however the top end usually comes to US to do masters and then tries to get job using H1B. If this is where to be instated in this form, it almost precludes any fresh college graduates from getting a shot at this.
    • aianus 1y ago
      $100k signing bonus and $150k salary was normal for fresh grads back in 2014, pretty sure big tech can afford this no problem for actual talent.
      • whatever1 1y ago
        The big tech companies have the financial means to invest in anything. They are essentially printing money. However, which startup can afford an additional cost of 100,000 dollars for a fresh PhD graduate who is essential for their niche? The true economic benefit of the H1B visa program for the US economy lies in the long tail of smaller firms that require a limited number of specialized personnel, which, by definition, is scarce.
        • trollbridge 1y ago
          A PhD holder should be coming in under O-1.
          • whatever1 1y ago
            A PhD comes as a student with F1 student visa that expires the day of their graduation. O1 is unlikely to be granted to a student who has not graduated yet. What are they going to show for evidence? Manuscripts in preparation? Or class grades?
            • bigfatkitten 1y ago
              How many businesses have ever found a fresh graduate to be provably essential?
  • deleted 1y ago
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  • joseangel_sc 1y ago
    this comment is at best wrong, and at worst, purposely misleading
  • thatfrenchguy 1y ago
    > mid level talent at below market rates which really hurts the middle class in America What is "mid level talent" though? you're not getting that data from H1B wage filings, they're factually under-reporting compensation.
  • roughly 1y ago
    The hollowing out of the middle class in the US isn't because of immigrants, it's because of a sustained campaign by capital to reduce the power of labor over the last 50-odd years and to concentrate wealth as best they can. Immigrant labor contributes to that because we've got inadequate labor protections and because we bought into the idea that lower consumer prices was a fine reason to ignore both labor and antitrust.
    • giantg2 1y ago
      "The hollowing out of the middle class in the US isn't because of immigrants, it's because of a sustained campaign by capital to reduce the power of labor over the last 50-odd years and to concentrate wealth as best they can." Creating low cost alternatives and taking advance of lax laws is part of that. If you can import 100k skilled workers per year under a scheme that gives you more power over them. Then you also offshore 300k jobs per year to countries with weaker protections. It's always baffled me how the same candidates that claim to be pro labor and pro environment are also pro globalization. The way it plays out is that the jobs are just offshore to jurisdictions that lack the same labor and environmental protections.
      • sahila 1y ago
        > It's always baffled me how the same candidates that claim to be pro labor and pro environment are also pro globalization. The way it plays out is that the jobs are just offshore to jurisdictions that lack the same labor and environmental protections. Why's that? The jobs and lives of individuals in those countries are better than the alternatives present otherwise to them. Globalization may hurt certain America jobs but certainly countries like India is grateful for all of the engineering roles. High consumerism is harmful to the environment but I don't think the link between offshoring jobs is direct to environmental harms and certainly it's helpful to giving more job opportunites.
        • sokoloff 1y ago
          I'm very much free trade and pro-globalization, but it seems perfectly reasonable to me that a candidate for political office in country X should be most concerned about the overall welfare of the citizens of country X, then next for the non-citizen residents of country X, then non-citizen/non-residents last. We can argue how steep the dropoff should be, but I think most people would believe that the ordering is that one, with some possible ties.
  • valkmit 1y ago
    How valid is this premise in an increasingly global world? Most of the companies that are paying salaries could (and already do!) have offices in other jurisdictions where they could hire the same talent. Better to bring this talent onshore, where the wages are taxed, than force these companies to hire from satellite offices? It doesn't make much financial sense for companies to stop sourcing talent globally just because they can't be brought onshore, especially given enough time. Purely anecdotal, but for me personally this wouldn't change who or how I hire, just the location.
    • tottenhm 1y ago
      Same basic question -- at the price of $100k/ea, it does seem cheaper to build-out more satellite offices. But there's a parallel push around taxing American firms using foreign labor (https://www.moreno.senate.gov/press-releases/new-moreno-bill-would-crack-down-on-outsourcing-fund-american-workers/ https://www.moreno.senate.gov/press-releases/new-moreno-bill...). If multiple new policies are put in place at the same time, then... I dunno... it seems harder to predict...
      • valkmit 1y ago
        This seems virtually impossible to enforce. It's trivial to restructure hiring a developer to write software, as licensing software from a foreign development firm, or any number of other workarounds. This is not just a hypothetical, this is something that already happens when companies are looking to optimize their tax burden. Corporate structuring and income shifting are big businesses in their own right and serve to find the minimum amount of changes required to be able to legally reclassify income. In the case of this bill specifically, in the unlikely even it passes, a simple corporate inversion will solve this problem. Instead of the US company owning foreign subsidiaries, the structure is inverted: the parent company becomes foreign, which will own a domestic US corporation. When the multinational wants to hire or retain offshore talent, it simply pays out from the parent company. Again these aren't hypotheticals, these are real tax avoidance strategies that are already in place and are well-trodden paths. You can come up with an infinite amount of regulation to try to halt this (this problem is also called tax base erosion) but it ends up doing more harm than good - eventually you end up with a tax code and regulatory environment so complex that that alone disincentivizes new investment. The goal is not just to retain existing capital and talent by forcing them to be locked in - it's to compete for the next dollar, the next startup, the next factory - new investment will follow the path of least resistance, while older companies eventually close up shop due to one reason or another. If your worldview is one of "We already have the best capital and talent, so we don't need to bother to compete to acquire new capital and talent", the world you live in will stagnate and wither with respect to societies that will bend over backwards for this.
  • trollbridge 1y ago
    Exceptional migrants can still qualify under O-1, which hasn’t really changed at all. Most tech startup founders can qualify for O-1, unless your startup is really pointless.
  • tw04 1y ago
    > People need to understand that most reformists don't want to get rid of the truly exceptional immigration to the US. And how are “they” planning on determining who is “truly exceptional”? And what makes you think the “truly exceptional” ones are still going to have any interest in coming here when they see what happens to the people who the current regime deems “not exceptional”? I sure as hell wouldn’t come to the US knowing I may be deported to a third world prison if I post the wrong thing online.
    • xp84 1y ago
      I don't think there's an H1B category for online political edgelords anyway -- we have enough of those already on both sides of the political spectrum, so I don't think anyone cares if that type of person is afraid to come here. If anything, maybe it's better to have less of that kind of thing so we can focus on getting things done instead of political partisanship?
    • deleted 1y ago
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    • jwblock 1y ago
      I don't think you need to define 'truly exceptional.' You just need to put in a limit and the scarcity will force the slots to go to the best and rarest talent. I'm all for bringing the truly best and brightest to the US. I'm not for replacing large swaths of the domestic labor force with an imported lower price equivalent.
    • carlosjobim 1y ago
      > And how are “they” planning on determining who is “truly exceptional”? For example by implementing a $100 000 fee for their H-1B visas, which ensures that companies will only use those visas to contract truly exceptional talent. That's a very small price to pay for a company to be able to hire a person who is among the greatest in the world in her field.
    • Nasrudith 1y ago
      Given this administration? Truly exceptional are the ones who pay personal bribes.
  • harbingerofdoom 1y ago
    [dead]
  • ajross 1y ago
    > In the last few decades, there has been growth of abuse of the program to get mid level talent at below market rates which really hurts the middle class in America. That's a weird definition for "middle class", there are only 65k H1b visas issued every year. If you really are talking about the middle 60% or whatever of all workers, immigrants on H1b's are irrelevant noise. At most, these visas might be seen to impact specific professions (tech in particular, lots of doctors too) that most people don't consider representative of the "middle class".
  • charliea0 1y ago
    We should just set a number of H1Bs and auction them off.
  • deleted 1y ago
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  • beowulfey 1y ago
    With that in mind, would you say the administration is going about this the right way? Because this is going to hurt all H1B candidates, not just the "middle".
  • felineflock 1y ago
    Please share the articles you have about the matter.
  • keeda 1y ago
    Looking at it solely from a perspective of competition between labor glosses over the fact that insufficient labor is also bad for the economy because it keeps companies from growing and hiring more people. So sure, while the fewer jobs that they can fill could have higher wages (not a given, because lack of labor can stunt or kill companies) there could be much fewer people employed overall, which is clearly bad overall. Of course, that assumes there is enough room for companies to grow. There are strong indications (e.g. the various labor and unemployment surveys) that this is the case in the US. In fact, there is a credible theory that the reason the US managed the inflation crisis so well was due to the immigration crisis. I elaborated more (along with a couple of relevant studies) here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45308311 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45308311
  • andirk 1y ago
    I have worked with software people on H1B visas who's #1 goal was to hire more [specific nationality] and thin out the rest. Their work ethic was a top-down rule by fear, and their code was VERY bad. Made my life straight up worse. One example of abusing the H1B visa system. I have also worked with amazing H1B visa people. Just make sure they're actually talented.
    • ulfw 1y ago
      Funny you're in so much fear of repercussions that you don't even dare to say which nationality and yet most people in tech know which one you meant
  • hiddencost 1y ago
    Honestly: a lie. One you chose because it appealed to you, and then constructed a narrative to support it. We could easily afford to have a middle class in this country if we distributed wealth differently, and more immigrants would help us do it.
  • hshdhdhj4444 1y ago
    The hollowed out middle class is surely because of the class of jobs that have been growing the fastest, seeing the highest salaries and salary growths, and have been the best jobs in America for 2 decades. It’s not because of the other jobs which the H1Bs aren’t even allowed to do abd have seen falling salaries and degrowth.
  • ambicapter 1y ago
    I would like further reading on this topic.
  • jitix 1y ago
    Agree with mid level talent part, not the middle class part. H1B holders by large don't hold typical "middle class" jobs like accountants, office admins, marketing, sales, teachers, etc: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/11/jobs-with-the-largest-shares-of-middle-class-earners.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/11/jobs-with-the-largest-shares... Can you please share your reading material that links H1B software engineers with decline in middle class jobs from this list?
  • ivell 1y ago
    I think one unintended outcome of this would be that the jobs would be completely outsourced to outside of US. The ones remaining would be government contracts that have provisions against it. The government could add tariffs on services, but we need to see if that just moves the companies outside of US or not. Capitalism in a democracy is hard to control.
  • rtpg 1y ago
    Or you could stop tying H-1Bs to employers, meaning that there's less incentive to do the work to bring "mid level talent" in at below market rates, because those people would immediately find a job at market rates. There's a straightforward solution here. Right now H-1Bs are a way for companies to lock in employees by leveraging the visa status.
    • tomp 1y ago
      The problem with your solution (and similar solutions - e.g. implementing "salary auction" for H1B - i.e. it's not a lottery, but it's that the most paid get the visa) is: It requires changing the law. Which is very difficult, and requires a broad coalition in 2 houses of parliament. On the other hand, executive orders are very easy. I wish the better solutions get implemented, but until they are, we have to seek alternatives.
      • rtpg 1y ago
        > Which is very difficult, and requires a broad coalition in 2 houses of parliament. In the current moment the same party controls all three branches of government. There's a more basic reality that the idea I'm mentioning simply wouldn't be popular. I just think that people talk about market forces in these discussions and the lock-in effect is so clearly something that's affecting the market, yet not mentioned nearly enough IMO.
  • rob74 1y ago
    I suspect that in the case of tech companies, the end result of this won't be more jobs going to Americans, it will be either remote workers in low wage countries or outsourcing to low wage countries. Which, in the long term, might lead to fewer tech jobs in the US overall. Still, I can't help but feel a little bit of glee at all the tech companies who did their best to suck up to Trump, and now he stabs them in the back.
  • quantumgarbage 1y ago
    Sure, show us the numbers you got from your "further readings". Plenty of peeps are being much more factual below, compared to the gvt linguo that you are just rehashing rn
  • EliRivers 1y ago
    People need to understand that most reformists don't want to get rid of the truly exceptional immigration to the US. What do the most influential reformists want? The ones who set the extreme agenda that everyone else follows? As I understand it, right now the US is routinely enacting policies that the majority of citizens do not want; from this, could we surmise that the majority of people, and presumably thus the majority of reformists, will receive the extreme H1B policies that they don't want?
  • regularjack 1y ago
    Is there any data that supports these statements? Specifically that the program is abused and that it "hurts" the middle class.
  • MrMan 1y ago
    [dead]
  • dumbfounder 1y ago
    Are we saying software engineers making $125-150k are middle class? If so, then yes this I absolutely believe this is true. These will still be high level people for the most part that will up our game in my opinion. Thats in the opinion column, hard to prove. But this fee may have a net negative impact on jobs for Americans as it will push more companies to simply outsource to these countries rather than pay more in the US. So you need to tax that too. And then they will find some way around that and we will need to tax that new thing. I don’t like this game, it is trying to stop progress in my opinion. But I guess it is a balancing act and who knows where you set the line. Adding friction to it will definitely make it so only higher quality talent migrates here, that much seems clear.
    • ProllyInfamous 1y ago
      >$125-150k are middle class? I would think healthily so, even if on the upper bands [0]. I personally see "middle class" solidly as $50k-150k household income (2 adults 1 kid)... but I live in the South. Two decades ago I lived in the bay area for less than $100k (electrician)... and that was regionally closer to the lower end of "middle class," even out in Hayward. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_class_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_class_in_the_United_Sta...
  • glutee 1y ago
    Agree with the abuse part. Question is - is this the right way to fix the problem? A half baked executive order that raises more questions than answers for the existing H1B visa holders.
  • Salgat 1y ago
    I imagine for the "best of the best" making $500k+ annually, this is just the cost of business and they're not going anywhere, while for the h1b workers making closer to $100k annually, this is a show stopper.
  • azernik 1y ago
    First it was "we're only against illegal immigration, we want people to do it the right way". Now it's "we need to limit the volume" and "don't want to get rid of the truly exceptional immigration". Forgive me if I am skeptical, especially in a world where ICE is rounding up classic "exceptional" immigrants like biology researchers, or South Korean experts setting up a factory.
  • snowflakeandrey 1y ago
    I thought the top end is supposed to be served via O1 -> EB-1A -> Citizenship pipeline?
• asdff 1y ago
  I don't think it follows that preventing that brain drain would have lead to appreciably better outcomes for those countries. The real sucking factor for the united states is the second to none availability of capital to spend on R & D. If you keep the brains where they were raised, there is no mechanism for them to actually turn their ideas into fruition because there is little funding to support this either in private or public sector. The reason why you hear about research talent going back to China is because they are offered PI positions and generous startup grants or something analogous in most cases, with the government there committed to invest billions in research. You can't really expect that in the global south. You can't even really expect that in Europe in a lot of cases.
  • derefr 1y ago
    > If you keep the brains where they were raised, there is no mechanism for them to actually turn their ideas into fruition because there is little funding to support this either in private or public sector. In such a world, why wouldn't you see 1. foreign R&D companies, 2. indexed into a thriving foreign equities market, 3. gathering the interest of domestic investors who want to diversify beyond domestic investments, by 4. moving their money and/or investing in domestic proxy investments? I say this as a Canadian whose managed mutual-fund holdings are apparently largely composed of foreign (mostly American) proxy equities — and who has met many Canadian-based VCs who don't do much investment into Canadian companies. If not for talent immigration, the American investment landscape would probably look similar!
    • toast0 1y ago
      If you're a US investor, investing in US R&D is easy, you have a good idea of how things work and how to get justice if you're defrauded. If you want to invest in another country, that's a big change. There's certainly opportunity there, but without knowledge and contacts, it can be very hard to get things done. One track to investing in foreign R&D is foreign nationals come and work in the US to earn skills, knowledge, and capital, and then they take those earnings and invest them in their country of origin, maybe living here or there.
• mcmcmc 1y ago
  > A core strategic strength of the US over the last century has been that everyone with any talent wants to come here to work, and by and large we’ve let them do so. This is a double edged sword given that it means there’s less incentive to invest in US public education and fostering our own talent. Instead of brain drain we’re dealing with brain rot.
  • xp84 1y ago
    A hugely overlooked point. If FAANG etc want talented people, and couldn't hire H1Bs, they might have more of an incentive to try to influence education and to train people with aptitude but lacking learnable skills. As of now, both the K12 system and college education seem in freefall in terms of quality and applicability to careers. No doubt those companies will devote their money to lobbying to keep hiring H1Bs instead of training the talent they need here, since they're just profit-optimizing functions, rather than humans with morals.
• jp57 1y ago
  Isn't this what the O-1 visa is for?
• czhu12 1y ago
  I misread this initially as the problem that damn near every other country has is also immigration. This seems to also be at least somewhat true for first world countries. Looking at the politics in Europe and Asia today, the question of who is allowed in and why is a central point of debate that rages and threatens to tear apart much of the fabric that was built over generations.
• deleted 1y ago
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• melenaboija 1y ago
  Absolutely. I think some people underestimate the power of those willing to migrate to the US. I’m in my early 40s and moved from Western Europe to the US 11 years ago, and I feel I was the last generation eager to come, the perception of US is changing fast. This is not an H-1B problem but still a parallel one on how to attract people.
• behringer 1y ago
  It hasn't worked out for Americans either. How many months does it take to get a job? Just ask around.
• fair_enough 1y ago
  One man's rising gas prices are another man's oil industry boom. The H1B process is unfair to engineers because it drives down their compensation in a way that doesn't affect nurses or welders. If immigration were completely irrespective of profession and based solely around whether the imported laborers get paid enough to contribute more than they receive in taxes/public services, nobody would have any standing to complain about their wages being driven down because every single person benefits in the long run from the economic growth. As things stand, tech workers and unskilled laborers get screwed by the current status quo because they don't reap the benefit of cheaper goods and services in all the other industries, but everyone else benefits from cheaper electronics/software and landscaping/housekeeping/food service while their wages grow. You're not wrong on paper, the current immigration practices are just screwy. EDIT - The hard statistical proof that most of the H-1Bs are tech workers: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/o https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/o...
  • fabian2k 1y ago
    Software developer salaries are still extremely high in the US. So I would doubt that this has had a huge effect.
    • Sleaker 1y ago
      This also impacts non-software tech: see recent layoffs statistics at Intel, what percentage are H1B and why aren't companies required to re-prove H1B necessity? Can we just over-hire and claim we need H1Bs because we can't find enough talent to fill the rolls, then submit that we over-hired and lay off all the US talent? This seems to be a bit of what happens even if not intentionally.
    • fair_enough 1y ago
      I'm writing this reply not to the lazy commenter, but to anyone reading this thread... Yet again, we have classic HN speculation masquerading as authority. Should software developer salaries be comparable to accountants or to surgeons? That's an arbitrary value judgment. Software engineers have less purchasing power than they would without the H-1B visa program, and that's indisputable. 64% of the visas go to IT workers and 52% go specifically to programmers, which implies beyond all shadow of a doubt that their salaries decrease further than the cost of the goods and services they pay for. https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/ola_signed_h1b_characteristics_congressional_report_FY24.pdf https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/o... It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal. You get nothing. You lose. Good day, sir!
• davidw 1y ago
  As always, so much zero-sum thinking in all these discussions. Often, the person may not have been as productive, happy, or well compensated in their own country. Also, over time, some of those people make money in the US and take that, their knowledge and skills and go back home to share there. Everyone is better off. I was discussing this elsewhere, and dug up something I wrote 11 years ago, and I think I'm still pretty happy with it: https://journal.dedasys.com/2014/12/29/people-places-and-jobs/ https://journal.dedasys.com/2014/12/29/people-places-and-job...
  • ericmay 1y ago
    > Also, over time, some of those people make money in the US and take that, their knowledge and skills and go back home to share there. Everyone is better off. How are Americans better off in this scenario?
    • aianus 1y ago
      American companies are overwhelmingly owned and operated by Americans who can extract value from the H1B employees well in excess of their salaries (even with the new cap and fees)
      • ericmay 1y ago
        Sure, in theory. Where are the financial figures to demonstrate?
      • harimau777 1y ago
        That helps those few individuals who own those businesses. However, it doesn't help your average American worker much.
    • pastel8739 1y ago
      The more smart people we have working on the world's hardest problems, the more likely it is that we'll have breakthroughs that make the world better
• dyauspitr 1y ago
  Shutting down H1Bs is extremely stupid because >50% of our unicorn founders are first generation immigrants that started out on the H1B. They are the greatest creators of jobs in the entire economy. Shutting down the H1B is a dark horse for the end of American success.
  • alexose 1y ago
    It's absolutely insane. At some point you have to wonder if this is deliberate sabotage.
    • bdhe 1y ago
      A lot of Trump's support comes from people wanting to and happy to blame immigrants (of all kinds) for legitimate grievances - such as unemployment, expensive healthcare, housing, and inflation. The distinction between legal and illegal immigration is blurred not only by Democrats but also the economic populists occupying Trump's base. This is aimed at them.
    • rramadass 1y ago
      I believe it is. Every one of Trump's decisions has been populist, simple and guaranteed to harm the US in the long run. For H-1B see report here - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45306919 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45306919
    • dyauspitr 1y ago
      It’s just populism with no long term planning. They’ve decimated the job market, people are hurting, have given folks someone to hate, it’s an easy win for them.
  • trollbridge 1y ago
    That depends on if unicorn founders are really “American success”. Do we need more Facebooks and AirBNBs?
    • dyauspitr 1y ago
• riazrizvi 1y ago
  It’s not a strategic strength of the country as a whole to displace out of the economy the top talent, with a constant stream of new workers. This is just a local gaming by industry heads chasing end of year bonuses based on short term financials. We saw the offshoring of talent in manufacturing destroy domestic capacity. We are now seeing a similar phenomenon as there is pressure from many sides to offshore tech or migrate employment from citizens and permanent residents to temporary residents. The employment environment in Silicon Valley has been extremely strange since 2022. I haven’t been able to find a job in my field since then, despite being at the top of my game. I’m practically bankrupt and currently making ends meet in a minimum wage job.
• kerpal 1y ago
  This is so absolutely fundamental to US strategic advantage. A huge reason we have so many unicorns is because doing business and scaling in the US is easier than EU or other places. A huge part of why the Manhattan Project was successful was also because of substantial brain drain from Europe. I think Scott Galloway wrote about this or may have popularized it.
  • SV_BubbleTime 1y ago
    If you're only talking about the exceptional sure. But when Microsoft fires x and applies for ~x H1Bs the same day... That doesn't seem like what you're talking about at all. If an employee is exceptional and a skilled unicorn wrangler... 100K is nothing.
    • bialpio 1y ago
      Not sure if it applies to H-1B but if a company does mass layoffs, it automatically makes it so that the PERM applications (required for green card, which you need to keep the employee past the visa validity period + extensions; up to 7 years iirc) will be automatically rejected for some time. So it screws over your existing H-1B holders, making your company way less attractive. Source: I came to the US on H-1B in 2012. I may be misremembering which stage of the process the mass layoffs affect.
    • reverius42 1y ago
      Part of the problem is you don't know ahead of time (certainly not with 100% certainty) who's going to be an exceptional unicorn wrangler, and who's just going to be a pretty good engineer, unless they already have an incredible track record elsewhere. This will filter out a lot of possible future unicorn wranglers.
      • SV_BubbleTime 1y ago
        Geez, maybe there shouldn’t be tens of thousands of hires over Americans then? Sorry, it’s just that maybe a LOT of you aren’t understanding the motivation here?
• ljsprague 1y ago
  Isn't Poland about to overtake Britain in per capita GDP?
  • bialpio 1y ago
    No; UK has roughly double GDP per capita of Poland. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(no...
    • ljsprague 1y ago
      I won't claim to fully understand it but by PPP they're close. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PP...
• onetimeusename 1y ago
  Ok that may be true but I would also argue there is such a thing as elite overproduction[1] via immigration. That is, we are basically importing a new elite for a fixed number of roles in society. Let's presume also that the children of highly talented immigrants are also highly talented. In some sense this kind of social engineering could be harmful to both nations involved. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_overproduction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_overproduction
• LAC-Tech 1y ago
  Sites like jobs.now show the H1B situation is incredibly corrupt. So many hard to find jobs where they ask applicants to physically mail in their resume, so that later on they can make it an H1B job. I don't think being against exploitive mass migration - which by its definition is brain drain of other countries, which every bleeding hearter likes to ignore - is the same saying no one should ever immigrate ever.
• non_aligned 1y ago
  > A core strategic strength of the US over the last century has been that everyone with any talent wants to come here to work, and by and large we’ve let them do so. That's largely a myth, though. The vast majority of smart, driven people have no path to lawfully immigrate to the US. By a wide margin, the main immigration pathway are family visas (i.e., marriages and citizens bringing in relatives). H-1B visas are a comparatively small slice that's available via a lottery only to some professions and some backgrounds - and the process is basically gamed by low-wage consultancies, with a large proportion of the rest gobbled up by a handful of Big Tech employers. And that's before we even get to the fact that H-1B doesn't necessarily give you a path to permanent residency, depending on where you're from. For most people who aren't techies, the options are really very limited, basically "be exceptionally wealthy", "be a celebrity", or "be one of the world's foremost experts on X".
  • Illniyar 1y ago
    I mean there's somewhere between 10-20k o1 visas issued a year. o1 is literally the visa for smart and talented people. There is also EB with National Interest Waiver - including for profession like Doctors and such. Not to mention a lot of employment based visa, if you work for a US employer - L1, EB1/2 directly etc... There isn't a permanent resident visa for Driven people - but you can get entrepreneur visas if you run a profitable business.
    • non_aligned 1y ago
      I'm not sure what you're saying here. Yes, if you're truly exceptional, you can get in the US. You can also get into any other country in the world. And the Trump administration doesn't seem to be interested in changing that. But only a tiny sliver of what you would consider successful, skilled people can qualify for O-1. To my original point: if you're "merely" hard-working and good at something, you - as a general rule - have no lawful pathway to immigrate to the US. Here's another way to look at it: let's say that in any country, roughly 10% of people fall into the category of "talented and hard-working" - not superstars, but the kind of people who would conceptually enrich the economy. Worldwide, that's probably what, 400 million adults? Further, let's say that about 10% would be interested in living in the US. And before all the EU folks sneer at that: that's probably a big underestimate, because a good chunk of the world is living in places with a much lower standard of living. So that's 40 million who probably want to come. And the total number of employment visas is ~100k/year. We aim for the global top <0.1%.
• mbesto 1y ago
  > You can argue how well that’s worked out for us And its an easy argument: The Manhattan Project engaged thousands of scientists, but over 16 notable principal scientists (with major published credits) were foreign-born and either retained their citizenship or became naturalized U.S. citizens only after escaping persecution or war in Europe. As of 2025, about 10-12 CEOs of the top 50 Fortune 500 (F50) companies were born outside the United States, representing roughly 20-25% of F50 CEOs. This number has grown over the past two decades, reflecting increasing diversity among leadership at America's largest corporations. Nearly half of all Fortune 500 companies in 2025—specifically 44%—were founded by immigrants or the children of immigrants, meaning the original founders were not born in the United States or were the first generation after immigration. These are just three major examples.
  • l___l 1y ago
    I don't know if that's easy. If this was flipped around, 100% of the top Fortune 500 would be born inside the United States if no immigrants were allowed in. A better test may be comparing company performance worldwide instead of only in the F500. That's a different list, the Global 500.
• vovavili 1y ago
  Taking the well-being of abstract concepts like a country over the well-being of concrete individuals is a slippery road towards a particularly unappealing version of collectivism. Me emigrating from Eastern to Western Europe was among the best decisions I have made in my entire life, and I couldn't care less if the outcome of this is my country doing "worse". My country by itself doesn't feel nor think anything, but I certainly do. One of these thoughts is me not believing that I have a civic duty to be less well-off materially and mentally just so my taxes get re-routed to a country I accidentally happened to be born in. I vote with my feet.
• the_real_cher 1y ago
  O-1 visas are for people with exceptional skill. H1B visa is just a rank and file worker with a certain skill.
• varispeed 1y ago
  In the UK it is mostly immigration policy. Thanks to something called Boriswave, corporations could import knowledge workers at close to minimum wage (so locals couldn't even compete for those jobs) and now it changed a little, but still it's fraction of what local worker would command for similar job. This has basically collapsed the IT market. Then you have more people competing for the same resources, meaning rents going up, you wait longer for a doctor's appointment and so on. Just don't get me wrong - I don't blame immigrants. If I was in a poor country and had talent, I'd grab any opportunity to get more experience and get foot in the door so to speak. It's corruption of the government. Now, by the way I understand H-1B, $100k still seams cheap for essentially getting a slave.
  • trollbridge 1y ago
    After adjusting for inflation, slaves from the 19th century prices would be worth somewhere from $30k-$150k in present day dollars, according to the best research. Very chilling to think about.
• rdtsc 1y ago
  > but one thing worth noting here is that the primary problem that damn near every other country on earth has isn’t immigration, it’s brain drain. It's great if you only root for the US, but taking more global perspective, let's have other countries improve their situation as well. There are almost 200 or so countries, I am ok with them improving their economy using their equivalent of H1-B programs. This is a golden opportunity for others to step in an eat Americans' lunch so to speak, let's see if they capitalize on it.
• JustExAWS 1y ago
  I’ve worked with plenty of coworkers on H1B both on boring old enterprise companies and BigTech. Absolutely none of them were better (or worse) than American citizens. On the other hand, those working for WITCH companies… And trust me, I’m in no way “anti minority”. Not only are some of my best friends minorities - so are my parents…
  • Braxton1980 1y ago
    If you're not anti minority why are using anecdotal evidence to generalize large population groups?
    • scarface_74 1y ago
      You mean generalizing population groups by saying they are no better or worse than the general population? WITCH companies are not hiring the best or the brightest. Their entire value play is contracting out mediocre developers at mediocre wages.
• ponector 1y ago
  >> hasn’t worked out well for the countries those talented folks came from Not so straight forward. Ambitious people leave underdeveloped countries because there are little opportunities. It's not like they are going to build same great product there as in California.
• rectang 1y ago
  > You can argue how well that’s worked out for us The elephant in the room is that many of these highly successful people who have brought great economic advantage to the US over the years happen to have brown skin. As for why this policy is being adopted: sometimes an elephant is just an elephant. The huge price increase hurts brown people (mostly), and possibly curbs immigration. It will play well with a certain segment of Americans. There are many subtleties to the H1-B visa debate, but I don’t think they are at play in this policy change.
  • ivell 1y ago
    I think it could be most likely to apply pressure on the US-India FTA under discussion. Context: 50% tariff has been applied to India. Chabahar port sanctions are reintroduced. And more to come in next few weeks.
• mancerayder 1y ago
  A lot of the H1B's in the software industry definitely match the description you stated - talented folks coming from places which (I'll add) have superior education systems. The problem isn't immigration, it's the undercutting of wages and the fact that these H1's (who we ALL work with) are trapped, working with fear and under pressure, due to the leverage the employer has. H1B program == leverage over the H1B workers due to the employment tie-in to residence, leverage over other non-H1B workers as well, due to the wider talent pool at LOWER wages. I don't know whether Trump is doing is good, but the H1B program helps Owners more than it helps Workers.
  • gustavoaca1997 1y ago
    Not quite. This type of visa helps folks like me live in livable countries with good enough salaries to help our family and elderly don't die in our home countries
• frogperson 1y ago
  [flagged]
• lo_zamoyski 1y ago
  > but it damn sure hasn’t worked out well for the countries those talented folks came from. The ethics of emigration is an interesting area that's under explored, especially in non-emergency scenarios. We have obligations to our own societies, for example, but how this affects emigration requires clarification.
• vjvjvjvjghv 1y ago
  "extremely talented H1bs" We would have to filter for these more. In reality the majority of H1B visa are issued to companies like Infosys or Tata who often have below average people.
  • kevin_thibedeau 1y ago
    They really should just outlaw H-1Bs for body shops. There is no rational justification for it given the blatant abuse of the visa program they have long demonstrated. If a company needs work done, they should be forced to sponsor a guest worker directly.
    • travoc 1y ago
      Who else is going to pretend to rewrite my ancient CRUD apps?
      • reverius42 1y ago
        Claude Code?
• cgio 1y ago
  Being an immigrant, I think it’s net positive for everyone. I brought skills that, at the moment I immigrated, my home country could not leverage, even though it paid for my free education. I built on these skills and if my home country ever needs these skills, I would be excited to contribute.
• jghn 1y ago
  Don't worry. The actual text declares that DHS has the discretion to give exceptions to companies. [1] I'm sure this does not at all imply that what this policy really means is that companies who bend the knee won't see this extra charge. [1] https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3lz7zcqawg22u https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3lz...
• ferrouswheel 1y ago
  Maybe talent in third world countries. I think it's mostly mid-tier people from first world countries. People with actually talent and intelligence realise how messed up the USA is (and has been for some time) and prefer things like healthcare and gun control. And if they really want the lack of work life balance and/or high paid roles, they can consult from US company like I do. Now I get the money, but I live in a decent country. I don't think there is any amount of money you could offer me to move to the USA. Well ok, maybe when it gets to $10 million / year I would have to start considering it.
  • transcriptase 1y ago
    Meanwhile the vast majority of people in real world don’t consume a steady diet of r/politics et al, has actually spent an appreciable amount of time in the U.S., and has come to a different (nearly opposite) conclusion. I wonder which is more correct.
    • verzali 1y ago
      No, I spent multiple months working in the US and concluded I didn't want to live there long term. Not so much guns and healthcare as how screwed up the culture is and how little community there is. You guys are lonely and you really don't seem to get why.
• cyanydeez 1y ago
  Unfortunately, this is a good faith argument. In reality, this will just be used to show fealty to trump and a fastlane visa will be opened to companies willing to join the fascists. Again, good faith argument against something that isn't bewing done with a reasonably democratic outcome.
• franktankbank 1y ago
  Intelligence and wisdom comes from the shores of experience. This idea that you can pull einsteins from the east is stupid.
  • jeffhwang 1y ago
    Didn't Einstein himself literally come from east of the Atlantic Ocean? ;)
    • LAC-Tech 1y ago
      In English west/east has two meanings; geographic, and cultural. I'm in New Zealand, which is far east of Japan, but still a western country.
  • kingstnap 1y ago
    Are you really suggesting that people who are intelligent are purely that way because of their environment and experience? Any amount of observing children will show that equal instruction will not net equal outcome.
• 8bitsrule 1y ago
  >it damn sure hasn’t worked out well for the countries those talented folks came from. It damn sure hasn't worked out well for a lot of talented, perpetually underemployed (many deep in perpetual debt) US kids. And I'm pretty sure that what those talented folks learn here in the US has made its way back to those countries, considering (e.g.) the level of competition we see from Asia these days.
• Hnrobert42 1y ago
  Well, it's positive for the companies and their investors. Is that the "us" it has worked out for?
• deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
• ambicapter 1y ago
  love it or hate it, it hasn't worked out well for/in the minds of native-born us citizens either, a sentiment which I think this policy is going to tap into hard.
  • bonestamp2 1y ago
    That was my thought too, and then I wondered if the workers are $100k more expensive to bring here then maybe the jobs are just going to go to the same people, but in their home country.
• nashadelic 1y ago
  What other country do you know of that can, with a wave of a hand, import a million highest-quality, ambitious people from across the globe? These folks aren't clamoring to go to other countries; this is the US position, and it was built with lots of hard work. With these changes, let's see how much this hurts in the foot.
• ashoeafoot 1y ago
  [dead]
• mgh2 1y ago
  Did anyone see the writing on the wall? This is an obvious ban on foreign high skill labor: what employer will pay 100k upfront cost? The cost is not even close to cover the wage difference (20-30%): https://www.epi.org/publication/h-1b-visas-and-prevailing-wage-levels/ https://www.epi.org/publication/h-1b-visas-and-prevailing-wa...
  • glenngillen 1y ago
    Admittedly my frame of reference here is now a decade ago when I was living in California. But we would routinely hire people on H1B, and it most definitely wasn't because we thought it was a cost saving. Between the >=$20K in legal fees, similar budget for relocation expenses to bring someone into the country, and having to pay them as a foreign contractor for anything up to 10 months while we wait for the applications to re-open for the year. And then pay them the same as any local talent we hand on the team. Hiring local people was preferable in every way. But the market was hot and it was seemingly almost impossible to actually do that.
    • shiftleft 1y ago
      I'm in the UK and can relate to this view strongly. As a software developer myself looking for hires there simply isn't the talent, especially in the North East of England so we have to cast our net further and accept applications from abroad.
• LightBug1 1y ago
  I'd wager: Not any more !
• tredeske 1y ago
  [dead]
• belter 1y ago
  > but it damn sure hasn’t worked out well for the countries those talented folks came from. No, it has not. And not because the people were not capable. It is because most of those projects depend on having the right kind of ecosystem. Massive venture capital, stable institutions, cutting-edge infrastructure, tolerant regulation, network effects, and huge government spend especially in space, defense, and R&D. Those elements are overwhelmingly concentrated in the U.S. and particularly in Silicon Valley. Jan Koum didn’t build WhatsApp in Kyiv he built it in California. Ukraine in the 1990s barely had reliable phone lines, let alone the mobile networks, cloud infrastructure, and capital required to scale a global messaging service. Sergey Brin didn’t found Google in Moscow. Russia had brilliant mathematicians, but no open internet culture, no ad driven funding model, and no free flowing capital markets. No chance of a SpaceX out of South Africa or Canada. Those countries entire annual space budget wouldn’t even cover a single Falcon 9 launch. These are not just anecdotes, but the proof that without the combination of American capital, infrastructure, and government spending, projects on this scale simply would not have been possible. The brain power was there, but the ecosystem that turns raw talent into global impact was not.
• password54321 1y ago
  Do you not want your own citizens employed for imaginary geopolitical gains? This mindset was always going to backfire and now you are just witnessing it.
• ozim 1y ago
  Example of Poland and guys that Sam.A. Gave shout out. Their talents would be simply wasted in Poland. There simply is not enough capital and academic resources are not going to best people but to ones gaming the system. I bet a lot of talented people move to US because they would have to fight uphill battles in their home countries with lack of funding, nepotism, corruption, caste systems you name it. So I don’t think it would make much difference for the countries if they don’t have society set in ways to benefit from those talents.
• notmyjob 1y ago
  Where would we be without foreign brains like Musk, Theil, the Wright brothers, knuth, North Korean programmers and that guy that got hired by 40 different startups at once.
• thepryz 1y ago
  There’s another benefit to immigration that isn’t often discussed. Known as the immigrant paradox, children of immigrants routinely perform better academically than their peers, even despite other socioeconomic challenges. This suggests that immigrants not only benefit the country from the work they directly perform but their children also benefit the country by raising the bar for academic performance and arguably growing up into better educated if not better skilled workers themselves. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5555844/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5555844/
• slimebot80 1y ago
  Lots of truth there. But it's certainly worked wonders for the top tier of Indian society, being able to farm out labour. Akshata Murty certainly has had a fair slice of the cake, for example.
• rayiner 1y ago
  The U.S. had immigration restriction for almost half of the last century: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/immigration-act https://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/immigration-a.... During this period, the U.S. became the undisputed superpower. Silicon Valley was established during this period too. Of course we continued to accept superstars even during immigration restriction, like German scientists fleeing the Nazis. We probably don’t need more than 10,000 or 20,000 carefully selected immigrants a year to continue doing that.
• shswkna 1y ago
  Thats why this move is good news for the rest of the world. Our competitive advantage will increase, year after year, albeit from a low level compared to the US.