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What Will Happen in the 2020s

• gz5 7y ago
  >5/ A decentralized internet will emerge, led initially by decentralized infrastructure services like storage, bandwidth, compute, etc. The emergence of decentralized consumer applications will be slow to take hold and a killer decentralized consumer app will not emerge until the latter part of the decade. The pendulum of history suggests this will occur (at some point), and I hope it happens sooner than later in many respects, but it is also seems like one in which we won't know the triggers/causes/sparks until after the fact, partially because it seems it will take complex combinations of causes? Anyone seeing possible sparks which perhaps the rest of us aren't yet identifying?
  • geoah 7y ago
    ipfs, dat, zeronet I think are good examples of the sparks you are looking for. These are outside of the blockchain world of compute/storage as a service attempts that got started suring the ico goldrush and seem to be doing quite well for themselves.
    • gz5 7y ago
      i might categorize protocols (or even combining ipfs and dat as the basis of interesting solutions) as fuel. not sure they are the spark that lights the fire. maybe that sounds like semantics, so to propose a rough taxonomy of different types of actors: a. nation state level superpowers b. nation state level challengers c. large business / incumbents / leaders d. small business / startups / challengers e. individuals / consumers / social groups f. possibly horizontal groups across combinations of the above it would seem at least one of those groups would need to believe they can reap move-the-needle level benefits from decentralized internet in order to spark progress?
    • sagichmal 7y ago
      > ipfs, dat, zeronet I think are good examples of the sparks you are looking for. All of these things are failures?
      • imtringued 7y ago
        I agree. They are just modernized torrents with higher usability. The real problem (consensus) still only has one solution: blockchain with proof of work.
        • sagichmal 7y ago
          That's not true either. What nonsense has infected the blockchain space that people believe these things??
  • chubot 7y ago
    Maybe there will be a need for massive computing in remote areas: Antartica, or space. They need a lot of local storage and compute. And they have low bandwidth. It's kind of like GPUs are in cars right now. You can't drive a Tesla with dumb sensors over the Internet -- you need smart local compute. https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-self-driving-car-computer-chip-nvidia/ https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-self-driving-car-computer-... So I guess IoT and doing heavy local computation is a technical reason you would need decentralization. I can see that happening for many use cases. I'm not sure if it will happen for the consumer web because centralization is more efficient and the current network effects are so ingrained. Similar to how Windows is still dominant on the desktop, but iOS/Android are perhaps more important platforms. --- I think major changes in behavior are driven by new hardware -- phones in the 00's, PC's in the 80's, Internet in the 90's, etc. People have been trying to push VR, but to me VIDEO is the real VR -- more stuff happens there and more people use it. I was chatting with a friend yesterday and observed that YouTube is basically what "SecondLife" was supposed to be. People are exchanging all kinds of valuable information and entertainment on YouTube. So if you need to process a lot of video locally for some reason, that could be a killer app for decentralization. Just like a self-driving car, although I'm bearish on self-driving impacting the average consumer in the next 10 years. I think it will continue to be cheaper to operate rideshares with human drivers in most parts of the world and most terrains/climates.
    • meesterdude 7y ago
      > YouTube is basically what "SecondLife" was supposed to be. People are exchanging all kinds of valuable information and entertainment on YouTube. A keen observation!
      • chubot 7y ago
        Yeah it's probably because I've been watching a lot of YouTube lately, but it feels like there's just a lot more real interaction going on there than on other platforms. It sounds like Twitch is the same way. One example: I learned how to clean my toilet from this video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd6pV5lyvG8&t=1s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd6pV5lyvG8&t=1s The comments are hilarious... Tons of people having the same "AHA" moment. (Basically you paper mache your toilet with vinegar and wait a couple hours. Old mineral stains come off like butter!) Compare a google search for "clean toilet" and it feels like a bunch of SEO-infested crap. YouTube is more like the "old web" where you can get a real opinion on something. ----- I have friends who cook and that's a whole other subculture of YouTube. I've been watching a good MMA show. And there are programming streams, and pretty much every programming conference has an archive, which is a rich archive of free information (e.g. PyCon, CppCon, etc.) I don't know what's going on in Second Life now but to me it feels like it's probably not "real life". I guess people want "life" and not "second life", and video is becoming an increasingly large aspect of the former.
  • mymythisisthis 7y ago
    There will be another factorial increase in, for a lack of a better term, email attachment sizes. It's still hard to share files that are 500MB in size, and I don't see why. I think it has to do with media companies like Google not wanting individuals to share files, unless it is through them. But the damn will break soon, much like Megaupload changed the scene in 2005.
  • jandrewrogers 7y ago
    The spark is already here. I work in a rapidly emerging domain where the trends clearly indicate that traditional concepts of centralized infrastructure cannot serve the required workloads: operational sensor/geospatial data models. Basically, machinery measuring and reasoning about the physical world at scale, often in real-time. Several aspects of these data models (technical, economic, regulatory) strongly indicate a globally federated implementation that allows for fast, decentralized, ad hoc cooperation of storage-dense compute elements at the edge. The aggregate data velocity is so high that the physics of data model centralization is untenable, so there is a certain near-term inevitability about it even though you can make a centralized solution work today. There is active research into the theoretical and practical design of systems and protocols that will make this plausible. It has no precedent in literature and it is a very non-trivial problem but the sense is that a practical workable design is achievable in the not too distant future. It is worth noting that effectively managing climate change requires implementing the same kind of data model with similar theoretical constraints. Building data models of physical reality at scale breaks just about every part of classic data infrastructure architecture.
  • pascalxus 7y ago
    I think we should be asking: What problem does it solve? why is that problem important? and why would someone use that new solution rather than what they're already using.
• jhbadger 7y ago
  >9/ We will finally move on from the Baby Boomers dominating the conversation in the US and around the world and Millennials and Gen-Z will be running many institutions by the end of the decade. And as typical in such pieces, GenX gets forgotten...
  • meddlepal 7y ago
    GenX is tiny and has failed to progress forward precisely because it is so small compared to the Boomers and Millennials. Also by the end of the decade parts of GenX will be approaching 60.
    • malvosenior 7y ago
      Gen X did just fine. They created most of what we know of as the internet. You probably don't hear much about them because we've (Gen X -- I'm one) been focused on building new things and not complaining about old things. It's a model other generations should look at and emulate quite frankly.
    • _jal 7y ago
      "GenX ... has failed to progress forward"? Did I stop aging at some point and not notice?
      • SllX 7y ago
        What you’re perceiving as aging is merely an illusion created in your mind when you look in the mirror. You think you must be aging because most people do, in fact, age. What you need to realize is that Gen X is stuck in a crack in time that halts the aging process for them. All of them. A side effect of this is that while they can interact with the world and almost be perceived, they actually have been forgotten by the rest of the world. On occasion a regular aging schmuck will notice a wild Gen Xer and be able to interact with them whilst the Xer is within their field of perception, however these interactions are invariably fleeting and almost immediately forgotten for it leaves the regular person’s body and mind in a strangely exhausted state. Interacting with a forgotten person stresses the body, and so while someone may not exactly know why they wish to flee from this person that seems like another person, at some point the brain sends the neurological equivalent of a kill -9 to end the conversation. It is estimated that about 200,000 Gen Xers are killed a year in this way, but nobody has been convicted since 1. nobody has been able to find the bodies again and 2. Even if they were, it would probably be ruled as self-defense and 3. All memory of the events that transpired invariably slips away from the living.
• nicebill8 7y ago
  > Error establishing a database connection Looks like we're going back to the 00's
  • csomar 7y ago
    Comments are broken too...
• cpach 7y ago
  Wilson’s site got the hug of death :)
  • cpach 7y ago
    Fortunately it’s back now :)
• travisoneill1 7y ago
  > 4/ Countries will create and promote digital/crypto versions of their fiat currencies, led by China who moves first and benefits the most from this move. The US will be hamstrung by regulatory restraints and will be slow to move, allowing other countries and regions to lead the crypto sector. Asian crypto exchanges, unchecked by cumbersome regulatory restraints in Europe and the US and leveraging decentralized finance technologies, will become the dominant capital markets for all types of financial instruments. People will not start trusting the Chinese government in the next 10 years. If there is a use for crypto here it will be for rich Chinese to evade their government when moving money outside the country as they typically do.
  • ivan_gammel 7y ago
    Trust is not binary in the world of finance. It is a measurable quantity and it’s equal to the premium investors are willing to pay. If the market is attractive enough people will invest in the hell.
  • Animats 7y ago
    If there is a use for crypto here it will be for rich Chinese to evade their government when moving money outside the country as they typically do. That's the real use of Bitcoin. It's why Bitcoin mining is such a big thing in China. It's "exporting". Made in China, sold outside China - that's exporting, and not only legal, but encouraged and subsidized. Buy a share in a Bitcoin mine in yuan, watch your EUR or USD balance build up in Hong Kong or Switzerland.
    • opportune 7y ago
      It also messes up the Bitcoin mining economics for the rest of the world. If you see mining bitcoin as a way to convert CNY -> equipment and electricity -> bitcoin -> foreign currency, you’re willing to operate at a loss. Kind of like how when people launder money they accept they’ll only get 50% or something of their dirty money converted into clean, except in reverse.
• DailyHN 7y ago
  > 2/ Automation will continue to take costs out of operating many of the services and systems that we rely on to live and be productive. The fight for who should have access to this massive consumer surplus will define the politics of the 2020s. We will see capitalism come under increasing scrutiny and experiments to reallocate wealth and income more equitably will produce a new generation of world leaders who ride this wave to popularity.
  • fastball 7y ago
    #YangGang
• chukye 7y ago
  Error establishing a database connection
• lettergram 7y ago
  I kind of doubt most of these. My prediction: 1. China will fall to internal strife of some kind. Still may maintain power, but famine and mass executions / disappearances will occur. 2. we will have further centralization of the internet 3. Solar will only account for 10k Gw 4. Agree that nuclear will make a massive resurgence 5. Gas will still be the dominate power source for mobile transportation, but less so. This is because gas prices will fall. 6. Saudi Arabia will have a violent revolution 7. California housing market will collapse due to high electricity prices, lack of electricity and wildfires 10. Meat will be nearly as prevalent today, but wild caught fish will be virtually no more 11. Self driving vehicles will operate in many of the non-heavily effected weather states. Laws will be passed to regulate and exclude some states after fatalities 12. Marijuana will be legal federally 13. Government will start accessing Alexa, Google, Siri recordings and public will be made aware 14. China will start using / building power projection in states it can. Specifically to protect food
  • trentnix 7y ago
    I'd bet the farm, all the farms, that your list turns out more correct than the one at the link. The item on your list I have the biggest issue with is 10. We'll still be catching plenty of fish in the wild (but some places that fish are plentiful today won't be that way) in another 10 years.
    • graycat 7y ago
      Blank.
      • runarberg 7y ago
        Even if over fishing is under control there is still an issue with climate change and everything that comes with it, including ocean acidification, ocean current disruptions, migrations of pervasive alien species, collapse of important local populations (due to the above). So even if over fishing is not a threat any more, our ocean food source is still at huge risk.
  • andrepd 7y ago
• FreeHugs 7y ago
  A decentralized internet will emerge It already is decentralized. No single authority controls the routing of packets. led initially by decentralized infrastructure services like storage, bandwidth, compute, etc. Seems like what he means is that more decentralized services will be built on top of the internet. Services, where you don't know who will provide the service you are buying. And where anybody can jump in to provide that service. A bit like AirBnB, Uber etc. But probably he means that the rules of those new services will be enforced by protocols, rather then by companies. So I guess Bitcoin is the most prominent example of such a service that is already in existence.
• brlewis 7y ago
  > We will see nuclear power make a resurgence around the world, particularly smaller reactors that are easier to build and safer to operate. Funny, I was digging into this issue just this morning. One family member supports Andrew Yang, but another won't support anyone who advocates for nuclear power. Despite Thorium not being fully proven yet, I lean toward agreement with Yang: https://en.howtruthful.com/o/nuclear_power_is_a_crucial_component_in_the_move_towards_creating_sustainable_carbon-free_energy_for_the_united_states/68e13aad02e98d53843bc788f00ff193 https://en.howtruthful.com/o/nuclear_power_is_a_crucial_comp...
  • deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  • chillacy 7y ago
    By the numbers nuclear is very safe but it does have asymmetric risk and most importantly a bad reputation. Next gen nuclear should be a marketing rebrand in addition to new tech. So Yang is right to focus on thorium.
    • ianai 7y ago
      Wish these billionaires with good intentions would invest in marketing to revamp public nuclear sentiment. There’s clearly the possibility of progress given how effective other political campaigns are.
      • wallace_f 7y ago
        If most billionaires are optimizing for social image / good will, your idea makes no sense to most of those people.
        • roenxi 7y ago
          On inspection, if they are optimising for social image / good will then a marketing campaign is the obvious starting point.
• deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
• lidHanteyk 7y ago
  Ah, from the mouths of babes. 1) Maybe. Or maybe we fuck it up and we are the penultimate generation of pre-Anthropocene human life. Hard to say for sure. So far, the rich and powerful seem to have little trouble selling their property. 2) Automation will not lead to some sort of wakefulness and critique of capitalism, but just more technocracy. The future is Google being too busy to offer you customer service. 3) China will collapse after their attempts to monopolize the South China Sea fall through. 4) Cryptocurrencies as a technology will collapse after several showstopping protocol-level issues are found. Most notably, a team will crack Satoshi's key and steal their BTC hoard, crashing almost all cryptocurrency prices, while as a runner-up effort, another team will successfully demonstrate forgery of high-difficulty blocks with ironic complexity analysis. 5) The various decentralized mesh networks around the globe will each grow to blanket their metropoloi, and some areas will see their mesh networks merge to create massive clouds of ambient connectivity. Disks will still be expensive, though. In fact, I'll predict another disk supply crash due to a natural disaster, akin to the tsunami from last decade. 6) Most folks around the world do not eat that much meat, and no numbers are listed, so I'll instead say that people will continue to not eat much meat. Perhaps meat consumption in USA, China, etc. will diminish, but probably not. 7) India and China step up their national space programs over the next decade, while ESA and NASA continue operating. Elon Musk is still around because of sheer willpower, but nobody else is really privatizing. 8) Already happened. It will continue to happen. The author's really showing off their bubble with this one. 9) Yes, many Boomers are near the end of their mortal coils. Don't be so morbid about it. I'm not sure if this prediction's at all interesting, since any actuary could make the same prediction without a single cup of coffee. 10) Gene therapy will still be sputtering and straining at the end of the next decade. CRISPR with Cas9 will have been long obsoleted, and nothing will have replaced it. There may be a field of genetic programming, though, where people specialize in writing code using DNA; there will certainly be a field of epigenetics which is distinct from traditional genetics.
• cinnamonheart 7y ago
  I'm seeing a database error, but there's a similar site with 2020 predictions (and onwards): https://futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2020-2029.htm https://futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2020-2029.htm Most of the 'predictions' have links explaining why they think this may occur in that timeframe, e.g., this one about exascale computers: https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2021.htm#exascale https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2021.htm#exascale
• fabatka 7y ago
  >7/[...] The early years of this decade will produce a wave of hype and investment in the space business but returns will be slow to come and we will be in a trough of disillusionment on the space business as the decade comes to an end. I guess this depends on SpaceX's success with the Starship - if a rocket that is made outside a cleanroom and with cheap rolled steel frame proves to be usable means that going to space becomes very very accessible.
  • Faark 7y ago
    Yeah, but space needs to be profitable, not just accessible, for private companies to take over investments. Even as SpaceX fanboy, I have a hard time imagining this any time soon. Space based internet constellations have a huge resurgence right now, but that's unlikely what the author meant. (Asteroid) Mining? Even if we already had the tech, such a mission would take decades. Who would accept the uncertainty risk of investing over such long time-spans? That is, if there is anything worthy enough to mine in space in the first place, will that still be the case many years later? Tourism might be a thing, but enough to bootstrap an entire space economy? Countries/politicians/billionaires wanting to project power or memorialize themselves still seems like the safest bet to me.
• PaulAJ 7y ago
  China is not going to provide a crypto version of its currency. The Chinese government is all about centralisation and control. It will go for electronic transactions via a few tightly-controlled banks combined with the elimination of physical cash.
  • djmips 7y ago
    This has already happened AFAIK.
    • amursft 7y ago
      I recall seeing that they were experimenting with it. Yep, here's a story from August. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-12/china-s-pboc-says-its-own-cryptocurrency-is-close-to-release https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-12/china-s-p...
      • chefkoch 7y ago
        >Unlike decentralized blockchain-based offerings, the PBOC’s currency is intended to give Beijing more control over its financial system. So not what you are expecting from a crypto currency?
        • redisman 7y ago
          Wow sounds great can't wait to invest in this propaganda coin.
      • hanniabu 7y ago
        From this week: https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/12/30/chinas-planned-bitcoin-killer-sparks-major-concerns/amp/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/12/30/china...
• cleandreams 7y ago
  In my view being optimistic about the future is in conflict with believing that China will become the dominant power. There are many concerning signals from China, not least the situation of Muslims and also the surveillance state. There is much we don't know about the true situation of debt, public and private, in China.
  • magduf 7y ago
    >There are many concerning signals from China, not least the situation of Muslims and also the surveillance state. Why is the situation with Muslims concerning for China? For Muslims and for anyone who cares about human rights, sure, it's concerning, but it does not follow at all that this is bad for China. The US became the dominant power despite having slavery longer than any western nation, and then having Jim Crow laws for a full century afterwards, including during the post-WWII economic boom. I would argue that, unfortunately, there is no evidence that treating your minorities well is necessary for economic success. In fact, it may be the opposite. Ancient Rome did quite well while having slavery, after all. As for the surveillance state, here we don't really have a lot of historical precedent. Obviously it didn't work out too well for the Warsaw Pact nations, particularly East Germany, but what they're doing in China really isn't like that.
• chukye 7y ago
  6 is a big NO. The most part of diseases of this decade are caused by plant based diets. Humans need meat, without it we get sick. B12 can't be found in plants, there are plenty studies that shows how sick we get if we eat ONLY plants.
  • brlewis 7y ago
    Aren't there a lot of people currently following vegetarian diets and not getting sick?
    • chukye 7y ago
      No. They need to supplement B12 and some other nutrients that are not found in plants.
      • anonytrary 7y ago
        This is just not true. You're probably thinking of vegans who aren't allowed to have cheese, milk, and eggs. Vegetarians can easily get B12 in their diets.
        • ertecturing 7y ago
          Vegetarians get B12 from the animal products created from animals which supplemented B12. Everyone is supplementing B12 regardless of their diet, it's just a matter of how many steps removed from the supplement that people seem to think makes a difference (it doesn't).
          • chukye 7y ago
            I'm sorry, here are some articles that supports me when I say that plant-based diet are not good for your health: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1331544/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1331544/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/26493452/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/26493452/ https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022347605812399 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00223... https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/90/4/943/4597049 https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/90/4/943/4597049 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/15072869/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/15072869/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/30061399/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/30061399/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3466124/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3466124/ I'm not a huge fan of nutrition, so that's why I take too long post these, anyway don't believe me or in any article, test on yourself and tell me. Plant-based diet might be good for environment, but for sure are not good for your health.
• PaulAJ 7y ago
  Any prediction of decentralisation of the Internet, or anything built on it, needs to explain how this will overcome the economies of scale (1 big data centre is cheaper than 1000 little ones) and the network effects (everyone buys and sells through Amazon because thats where you find the most buyers and sellers).
  • FreeHugs 7y ago
    1 big data centre is cheaper than 1000 little ones There are billions of computers out there that are idle most of the time. Utilizing them might very well be cheaper then building and maintaining a new datacenter. everyone buys and sells through Amazon because thats where you find the most buyers and sellers Not everyone. Not even the majority. Even in the USA which is Amazons biggest market, their market share is less then 50%. Individual onlineshops are also moving billions. Even the small ones built with Shopify are moving billions when you combine their revenue. And then there is Ebay, Facebook Marketplace, Alibaba, Rakuten, Zalando ... all moving billions worth of goods.
    • ohazi 7y ago
      > There are billions of computers out there that are idle most of the time. They will remain idle unltil untethered energy and bandwidth become free. I won't let you use my phone's spare cycles and murder my battery while we're still using lipo cells that degrade after 2 years with regular use.
      • hanniabu 7y ago
        > They will remain idle unltil untethered energy and bandwidth become free unless you tie it to an incentive, and thus you arrive at cryptocurrencies
        • stickfigure 7y ago
          Funny you mention that, since we've seen cryptocurrency processing concentrated in big data centers... for all the same reasons everything else is located in big data centers - energy and bandwidth are cheaper.
• cableshaft 7y ago
  What will happen in the 2020s: “Error establishing a database connection.” Yep, sounds about right.
  • jl2718 7y ago
    Maybe this is the decade that web developers will finally stop using dynamic databases for static content. I'll predict the opposite. Web stacks will get even more unnecessarily complex and buggy. Investment sizes, late-stage development cycles, and page size, will continue to grow toward infinity while startup success rates drop closer to zero. Page load times on the best available connection and hardware will remain constant as it always has.
• James-primitive 7y ago
  Bitcoin and Urbit will come to dominate the political, economic and social landscape of the Internet. Wikipedia will decay and become increasingly difficult to use. It will be supplanted by something built on top of Urbit. Marvel will take over the reigns of the Star Wars franchise. Elizabeth Warren will be President.
• amursft 7y ago
  Good predictions. Didn't mention distributed/remote work. Not sure if that's because it's so obvious a trend as to be boring? I think he's early on the plant-based diet prediction, but correct in 20-30 years. Actually a lot of these seem like trends that might take more than 10 years, but have a high chance of being correct eventually.
  • rubidium 7y ago
    Distributed work will continue to be a minor thing prevalent mainly in tech circles. Human nature doesn’t change on 10 year timescales. We’re tribal beings who organize around work and family. Best Buy’s pullback from it for their office staff is instructive.
    • chrstphrhrt 7y ago
      Yeah I've been doing remote 95% of the last couple years and it takes a toll not being able to be around people at all. Even as a mostly introverted person who needs quiet alone time for solving harder problems and general flow state. There's something about social interaction that helps with motivation that I find hard to get over chat and video. This is assuming the people are not toxic somehow.
      • gfodor 7y ago
        See my post above: there are reasons to be optimistic remote social presence and shared spatial awareness for many contexts will be solved this decade.
• neonate 7y ago
  https://web.archive.org/web/20200101163454/https://avc.com/2020/01/what-will-happen-in-the-2020s/ https://web.archive.org/web/20200101163454/https://avc.com/2...
  • throwaway5752 7y ago
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    • petulla 7y ago
      Thanks for this nudge. I signed up for a recurring donation.
    • DrAwdeOccarim 7y ago
      Totally agree and signed up for monthly recurring $10.
    • gist 7y ago
      > Please consider this. They are a real bargain and provide a real service to humanity. Instead of upvoting this comment, please give them $5 instead if you can. What do users of the archive gain by it being independent of advertising? And why can't it be a non profit and also offset expenses by selling advertising? Look at it this way. There are plenty of non profits that can only make money by donations. They can't easily make money off of advertising. Internet Archive can. So in theory any money that someone sends to them would not go to an organization that might have a greater need. Make sense? Now of course you are saying 'give them $5 instead of upvoting'. So that is a small enough amount that you would say 'you still have $5 to give to someone else'. But I say when people (en masse) behave like that a portion will feel that they have done their 'good person' duty and not make another donation to another cause (that once again can't sell advertising). By the way 'service to humanity'??? Edit: One other thing. I'd be glad to pay IA for 'service'. That is if I need to get a page taken down or I need to get something scraped more or less I'd gladly pay for being able to discuss with a real person and get something done. This idea that free means 'you take what you get and you don't get upset' to me is just nonsense at the core. Maybe have a free no ad service but then charge for things to raise revenue not just 'donate donate donate'.
• gfodor 7y ago
  I predict the 2020's will turn out to be the most difficult-to-predict decade yet. The predictions of the OP in my mind fail to account for several yet-to-mature disruptive technologies that will potentially transform our society to the degree the Internet and web have. The only prediction I'll make is in the domain where I work: By the end of the decade, most people will be wearing some kind of immersive computing device (glasses, contacts, perhaps neurological etc) all day which allow software to proxy most aspects of their visual and audio perception, perhaps more. Among the many results of this change, the most profound will be the loss of physical co-presence as a factor for interacting with other people. People will routinely 'beam in' each other (similar to FaceTime conceptually, but with no visual or auditory perceptual deficiency vs being together in person) in varying contexts for varying purposes. The technical miracle aside, this will cause a fundamental shift in the way we think about what it means to "be" with other people -- the dependence upon physical co-locality will be no longer something we place highly in our mental model for spending time with others, other than children. This will affect nearly every industry in terms of economics, some sectors potentially catastrophically like long distance transportation, but the biggest effect will be degree to which we will become able to empathize with others around the world and create novel, deeply impactful forms of interacting with others in a physical and emotional sense. I suspect, perhaps hope, that the dominating result will be that, in combination with new forms of media based upon these new technological marvels, we will be able to greatly reduce or eliminate the tribalist tendencies we have for one another when those 'others' are out-of-reach for us to talk with, hug, dance with, and learn from. In 2030, you'll be able to hug anyone on Earth instantly, and that's something to be optimistic about.
  • jstimpfle 7y ago
    What are your thoughts considering that VR was supposed to be the next big thing in the 90s already (at least from what I remember hearing...) and what are your thoughts regarding human chemistry?
    • gfodor 7y ago
      The tech track towards full perceptual override in this current generation of VR is fairly well understood and has been on track, though slightly delayed, for approx 7 years now, with the current Oculus Quest device being the best available, and something many of us in the industry felt was almost a dream possibility a few short years ago. So I'm fairly optimistic that the tech will mature to a point where it is effortless to have fully convincing perceptual software proxying all day in 10 years. I think the bigger unknown questions are around the impact of this technology. It seems hard to understate how much of a change it will be, particularly if there is a path towards young people being able to use it at a young age.
• anonytrary 7y ago
  The climate crisis will be exacerbated by the increasing centralization of large cities. Humans are tending towards centralized population hubs, and away from rural areas. This will be the main catalyst for adopting greener infrastructure. Fear of permanent climate change will not be the catalyst, as that is a long term repercussion of not solving the pollution problem, and humans have never been good about preparing for things in advance.
  • dehrmann 7y ago
    I'm not following your logic. Yes, humans are leaving rural communities for cities, but I'm not sure how that exacerbates climate problems...unless they're all moving to New Orleans.
    • ianai 7y ago
      I’ve seen at least one article suggesting the end of centralization into cities. I suspect LEO based internet services will further help people move back to the country. All that’s needed is work out there.
      • dehrmann 7y ago
        A friend lived outside a city of 20,000 in rural Colorado. He dropped $10-20k to get fiber run out. It seems like a lot, but If that's literally the only thing keeping you from moving from the Bay Area to a small town, you just haven't done your research.
        • anonytrary 7y ago
          Yeah people think the internet alone is powerful enough to reverse physical centralization, which is happening due to much, much stronger factors.
  • augustt 7y ago
    I thought it was the other way around? Don't people in cities have a lower carbon footprint because of public transportation, smaller homes, and other things that can be shared?
• emayljames 7y ago
  Agree with all, except the crypto currency bit. Asia (China) would not have an incentive politically to run with it, as it would remove traceability and control of money flow. Not to mention online currencies pitfalls.
  • dehrmann 7y ago
    Crypto currencies have failed to be useful as currencies, so I'm not sure why governments would be so eager to try them.
    • deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
• aazaa 7y ago
  Many of these seem like wishful thinking on the part of the author. For example, take the first one: > The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one. Oddly enough, if you go back to 2010 for predictions about the next decade, you'll see quite a few people talking about "peak oil." Almost nobody predicted a sharp turnaround in oil production and I don't think anyone in 2009 was predicting that the US would become a net oil exporter by the start of 2020. I'll make a counter-prediction on the topic of climate crisis for the 2020s: The climate crisis movement will become widely discredited for its attempts to manipulate scientific data and the scientific process for political ends. Grave prophecies of doom will not come to pass, causing loss of momentum and credibility. Climate research will continue, and as a result, new thermal regulatory mechanisms will emerge that lead to a more nuanced view of future climate change.
  • commandlinefan 7y ago
    > Grave prophecies of doom will not come to pass, causing loss of momentum and credibility. Why would you think this? Grave prophecies of doom have failed to come to pass for nearly half a century now and the climate change tale is _gaining_ momentum.
    • pmiller2 7y ago
      Failed to come to pass? Are you aware there’s an entire continent literally on fire right now?
      • RookyNumbas 7y ago
        Australia is always on fire. More of has burnt many times, many decades ago. I'm not saying that climate change isn't responsible. I do believe that it has increased the severity of the situation, and that is a big problem. But this is not a doomsday scenario. It's a once every 20 years going back as long as we can measure scenario. I think your reaction is a perfect example of what the parent comment is talking about.
    • acdha 7y ago
• seanalltogether 7y ago
  > Plant based diets will dominate the world by the end of the decade. Eating meat will become a delicacy, much like eating caviar is today. Much of the world’s food production will move from farms to laboratories. This needs a huge asterisks at the end of it right? You could argue that plant based diets already dominate the world. Now if he's claiming that "muscular" foods that are produced in a lab will pound for pound outsell animal based meat I would happily take that bet against him.
  • toyg 7y ago
    Same. Beyond the obvious lack of perspective on the developing world (where meat-eating can only grow), entire cultures are completely wrapped up in the rituals around eating meat and will resist any attempt to go back to the bad old days of meat scarcity.
    • nine_k 7y ago
      If artificial meat becomes really good, these cultures won't need to change. Real meat, and all the rituals down to the actual killing of it publicly, can still coexist with artificial meat, with an elevated status, like marble beef, or having a sheep solemnly slain for a feast, already are today.
    • joering2 7y ago
      Knowing how far we advanced with body parts reporuduction (altho not much in widespred use yet) but 2030 I envision most meat producers will move into printing meat, rather than regular farming. And its not because of growing demand or some personal feelings but because it will be much cheaper to print out part of a cow than raise one.
    • puranjay 7y ago
      As an Indian, I just hope fake meat can become good enough to stop the widespread adoption of real meat into Indian diets. India is largely vegetarian (eating meat, even in non-vegetarian households, is like a once-a-week affair) and that has been good for the planet. 1.4B people adopting meat as they become wealthier would be disastrous for the planet
• justinzollars 7y ago
  My predictions: 1. China overtakes the USA GDP by 2029 2. Trump wins reelection 3. The United States has a recession by 2021 4. Inflation becomes an issue in the United States because of high debt, increased military spending as a result of great power competition and huge pension debts/promises coming due with baby boomers retiring. The best investments (other then great startups of course) becomes Gold (because of the proclivity to favor spenders over savors.) 5. The United States will focus on big infrastructure spending. 6. Google develops a competitor to Huawei's Safe City project for the United States and its geopolitical allies, this will be a great benefit to our society 7. Humanity will reach mars 8. Humanity will turn the corner on Carbon pollution 9. San Francisco reaches a breaking point and elects moderates whose focus is building more housing. 10. The United States will join the TPP 11. Chinese culture and media breaks out and becomes popular in a similar way Hollywood and American culture is popular in other places
  • ertecturing 7y ago
    1. Probably 2. Trump wins by smaller margin (losing Michigan or Florida) 3. What will the recession be caused by? 4. Maybe younger voters vote against Social Security for this reason [insert doubt] 5. Unless Bernie is elected don't expect any infrastructure spending 6. Huh 7. Don't get your hopes up 8. Maybe 9. There's no breaking point. Their Hell has no bottom. 10. Both Bernie & Trump are against TPP. Would require moderate to get it. 11. Only Americans/Brits are good at spreading movie culture, that'll be true for a long time to come.
• rvz 7y ago
  Some of the points made here I agree with, probably slightly more accurate that the other warped predictions I’ve seen so far. However, I question that predictions /2 and /6 seem to be wildly far-fetched that it’s as if the author based his predictions from a damaged magic mirror. /2) While the tech is there for automation, Several safety and regulatory requirements the AI technology is not transparent enough to completely replace workers. This will take more years to only end up being a complimentary tool for its users. /6) doesn’t sound very realistic to achieve in this decade. The research is experimental or starting to emerge but not mature yet for be available to all yet and will not be in this decade. Probably the next or very late 2020s. I’m surprised to see that mainstream AR not being mentioned nor the further regulation of tech being detailed more in this article.
  • adventured 7y ago
    Several of his answers are between laughable and decades sooner than would be possible under any scenario. It came across as Fred reaching desperately to say something interesting and instead he just wrote a bunch of well-worn low value fantasy from other sources. Just look at how comical this stuff is: > Plant based diets will dominate the world by the end of the decade. Eating meat will become a delicacy, much like eating caviar is today. In one decade? Dominating the whole world and meat becoming a delicacy. That's such a bad prediction it's borderline sad. Maybe over the course of 50-100 years. It would take a decade just to scratch the surface of that prediction. It'll take decades just to scale up the necessary food production changes and distribution required by that prediction. He entirely ignores the massive investment required, the slow moving nature of it, the entrenched gatekeepers that dictate food policies, and the very slow moving nature of changing global consumer taste & demand (more likely to occur via aging out and new young people adopting, rather than true mass adoption by existing people that have all been eating meat for the entire lives; that will take a long time). > Asian crypto exchanges, unchecked by cumbersome regulatory restraints in Europe and the US and leveraging decentralized finance technologies, will become the dominant capital markets for all types of financial instruments. Things at that scale, dominated as they are in finance by giants with vested interests and tightly regulated and influenced directly by military muscle, do not change that much in the span of ten years or less. Another absurd, impossible prediction. This is Fred going overboard on a crypto binge. He might as well have said in his list that we'll all be piloting flying cars in ten years. It's the exact same bullshit worthless futurism fantasy backed with the exact same supporting basis (vapor). > China will emerge as the world’s dominant global superpower leveraging its technical prowess and ability to adapt quickly to changing priorities In ten years the US will still have the only global projection military and will still have the world's largest economy. Another obvious error of projection by Fred and a bad one at that. If everything goes right for China, in 30 years they could theoretically occupy a dominant superpower position. That's best case scenario. However what is most likely is that China will split the world in half with the US and never achieve such an overwhelming position and that they'll suffer stagnation due to well understood problems they're already sinking under (demographics, debt, increasingly extreme authoritarianism). Basically none of what he lists in item #1 will occur in the next decade. Most of it is so impossible to occur in the span of just ten years, that again, it's super far fetched. Someone should have screened all of this for him before he hit publish.
• csomar 7y ago
  > The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one. I don't think so. WWII was a war between two fronts. Climate change affects countries very differently. The ones not affected much will unlikely contribute. My guess is that everyone to his own in this one. > experiments to reallocate wealth and income more equitably will produce a new generation of world leaders who ride this wave to popularity. I don't think it'll be more than experiments. Capital is very sensitive to being grabbed by government for the benefit of the "people". My guess is that we'll see countries that try to have their industries collapse; while other countries letting that capital flow to them. > China will emerge as the world’s dominant global superpower China is doomed to fail in the long run. Not sure if it's going to happen in the next decade or later, though. But it'd be all good and hopefully democracy is established. > Countries will create and promote digital/crypto versions of their fiat currencies, led by China who moves first and benefits the most from this move. This was already tried and failed. Crypto-currencies have no meaning without the decentralized factor. Governments will never be able to establish their crypto due to the fact that they want to control the underlying. > Asian crypto exchanges, unchecked by cumbersome regulatory restraints in Europe and the US and leveraging decentralized finance technologies Kinda related to the point above. Countries with low taxes are going to boom further as western countries are tightening their fiscal game. > A decentralized internet will emerge, led initially by decentralized infrastructure services like storage, bandwidth, compute, etc. I, very, believe this one and hope it happens in the next decade.
  • ianai 7y ago
    China doomed to fail based on what?
    • almost_usual 7y ago
      Witness what’s going on in Hong Kong? There’s plenty of speculation that what’s happening there is being funded or supported by an opposing party in China. Older generations are also implicitly supporting protestors there very carefully. The young college kids are who everyone sees but there is a lot happening behind the curtain. China has had multiple generations of unrest. It isn’t just the young generation that is ready for change. I wouldn’t say China itself is doomed but communism there might be.
• politelemon 7y ago
  I would take a pessimistic view on #8: > Mass surveillance by governments and corporations will become normal and expected this decade and people will increasingly turn to new products and services to protect themselves from surveillance. The biggest consumer technology successes of this decade will be in the area of privacy. I'd take this a step further and fear that not only will it become the norm, even making use of privacy tech and devices will be viewed with suspicion or may even serve as barriers towards getting access to various societal instruments.
  • ohazi 7y ago
    WTF, the products and services are the surveillance...
  • matt_kantor 7y ago
    > making use of privacy tech and devices will ... serve as barriers towards getting access to various societal instruments This already happens. For example, in the US good credit is often necessary to rent an apartment, open a bank account, get insurance, or even land a job. In order to maintain "good credit", one needs to make sure their financial activity is reported to the bureaus. If you do everything using more-private cash or debit transactions you lose out.
    • sroussey 7y ago
      Yes, but... Some things you want as a signal and some things you don’t. Paying rent on time should be a signal, but often is not. Going to a cancer clinic may not be a signal you want, but already is exploited. Nuance is needed. Lots of small but important decisions to be made. Sounds like a product to me.
  • TACIXAT 7y ago
    Yea, I really think this one will be the opposite. Surveillance will increase and people will not do anything about it. People cannot effectively deal with online surveillance, what happens when that intensifies in the physical space? We are so far behind on this front that I do not believe we can catch up. I hope so though, it would be beautiful if Open Whisper Systems was the next unicorn.
• chiefalchemist 7y ago
  > We will see real estate values collapse in some of the most affected regions and we will see real estate values increase in regions that benefit from the warming climate. Identifying the risky low lying areas is relatively easy. However, predicting how and where the climate will change for the better, is at best a crap shot. We'll know things are getting serious when there's talk on Wall Street about moving out of lower Manhattan.
• tardo99 7y ago
  My favorite is the part where the torch will be passed from baby boomers to millenials and gen z. As if there isn't an entire generation of people between the baby boomers and the millenials.
• mymythisisthis 7y ago
  All cars will be required to have dashcams. Either by insurance companies or by governments. All cars will be required to have GPS, and be tracked in real time. This is already the case with the majority of commercial vehicles. Incremental steps in autonomous cars, first starting with 'drone' cars. Cars and trucks that are operated from a remote location. This will be piggy backed on existing technology. Cheap cameras, cheap cell networks etc. Think of delivery car, one person drives a truck from a remote location and one person is inside sorting packages, carrying them to the door. People with kids can work from home as Uber drivers and delivery drivers.
  • dclowd9901 7y ago
    Your last point got me thinking about people sitting in a dark room waiting for autonomous cars to have trouble on the road then alert them to intervene, turning 1 driver:1 car into 1 driver:20 cars.
    • mymythisisthis 7y ago
      I can see that. Or, even simpler, a delivery person hopes out with a package and the remote driver circles the block. Garbage trucks might be the first to have this system installed. You need two people to operate a truck currently, a driver and a guy in the back. It drives slow along the road, very predicable routes. Needs to be driven back to the yard once filled, and another truck to take over the route.
      • nradov 7y ago
        Many garbage trucks have only a driver now. The guy in back was replaced by a mechanical arm that grabs and lifts the garbage cans.
        • markkanof 7y ago
          Also the ability to drive the truck, at least to some degree from controls at the back of the truck. In my neighborhood there are too many parked cars to be able to let the robotic arm do everything. I often see the driver at the back of the truck moving it forward and hoping off to position trash cans where the robotic arm can pick them up.
• sethgibbons 7y ago
  I’m hoping that in 2020 fewer VCs will try to market themselves by making random predictions for the future.
  • F_J_H 7y ago
    ...and that we'll have fewer trolls...
    • sethgibbons 7y ago
      This VC is a troll indeed
• boyadjian 7y ago
  There are two wealth in this world: financial wealth, and demographic wealth. Both are limited by natural resources, so it should come as no surprise that they are declining. Humanity will be confronted with the principle of reality.
  • ianai 7y ago
    What is demographic wealth?
    • amelius 7y ago
      I'm guessing a population that can generate wealth (think age distribution, education).
  • gfodor 7y ago
    The reality is the universe is infinite and so are its resources. So in the long run, it’s unknowable if we will fail to harvest them. But there is no innate limit.
• buboard 7y ago
  What about demographic collapse in the west/china? will it not overshadow a lot of this? Esp coupled with demographic looming catastrophe in africa. Poor countries becoming increasingly unsustainable at a time when the developed ones will be least able to help.
  • deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  • rgarrett88 7y ago
    Immigration will make both of these things less of an issue. It will create increasing political tensions.
    • buboard 7y ago
      immigration requires opportunity, and opportunity is becoming increasingly scarce in europe. it's more likely, lots of capital will be reallocated towards the growing parts of africa
      • nradov 7y ago
        Immigration doesn't require opportunity if you're fleeing from drug cartels or islamist death squads.
        • buboard 7y ago
          that's a very small number; and they re refugees
• octocode 7y ago
  If we start predicting that the 2020's will be the rise of the remote-working 6-hour workday, maybe it will catch even more momentum and finally become true.
• ianai 7y ago
  The predictions about China are a little confusing. I know they’ve copied lots of foreign tech, but have they demonstrated any ability to source original research and development that had no external links? This read a little like what China would want the 2020s to look like.
  • m_ke 7y ago
    Does it matter? They're a manufacturing powerhouse and have a government in place that can (and has shown willingness to) take long term bets that are in the interest of their country.
  • arnaudsm 7y ago
    I agree. Except for mass manufacturing and stolen tech, most chinese tech is smoke and mirrors at the moment. Chinese research is famously low-quality given that most researchers are paid by the paper. I hope their fusion and quantum experiments are real, and not PR lies like the soviet union used to do in the 80s.
  • Symmetry 7y ago
    Historically most countries don't succeed in copying others and those that are able to, like the US and Japan, go on to innovate later.
  • rjkennedy98 7y ago
    Yes they have. Huawei and 5g is the largest instance of this, but there are plenty of others.
• RivieraKid 7y ago
  > Countries will create and promote digital/crypto versions of their fiat currencies Why? I don't see what would be the benefit of that. Fiat currency already is digital. And - at least where I live - domestic transfers are instant.
  • petters 7y ago
    Giving each citizen an account at the central bank. Then everyone will have access to "real" money digitally (not only via cash, which is currently the case).
    • jayd16 7y ago
      What's the point? Why would countries bother?
      • buboard 7y ago
        tracking everything
    • throwawayhhakdl 7y ago
      who exactly does that help?
  • magicsmoke 7y ago
    Here's a possible reason for why a crypto fiat currency with a distributed ledger might be attractive. Currently, all fiat currencies operate with a central ledger at whatever central bank is authorized to print or destroy units of the currency. For example, every US dollar is linked through a chain of deposits and liabilities back to an account at the Fed since any bank operating in the US is required to hold an account with the Fed. However, this gives the US the ability to control the transfer of USD to use in sanctions. Suppose you were an Iranian company that wanted to buy goods from the EU, to be paid in USD. In normal times, an Iranian bank with an account at the Fed would ask the Fed to transfer USD from its account to that of the EU bank to complete the trade. However, since Iran is under sanctions, the Fed can freeze the assets and refuse to initiate the transfer or confirm that the Iranian bank has the required funds. Without assurance that you can actually pay for the goods in USD, the EU company decides not to sell any goods and you're stranded from the world market. Trying to bypass this by buying the goods with Euros doesn't work either, since the Fed can also threaten the USD accounts of EU banks too. Suppose the US catches an EU bank helping an Iranian company trade with a EU company in Euros. The US could then order the Fed to freeze the accounts of the EU bank or extract a fine for violating sanctions. EU banks get spooked away from helping Iranian companies deal with international payments due to the risk of getting themselves locked out of the USD system. All this is thanks to the power the Fed has over the one central ledger of USD that they can modify and freeze at will. But with a distributed ledger secured with cryptography, the Iranian bank wouldn't have to depend on the Fed to modify their central account book when performing money transfers. They could cryptographically prove that they had a certain amount of USD in their accounts and transfer it to the EU bank in a way that all bystanders can observe and confirm. You would have a currency system with unblockable and unsanctionable transfers, as if you had teleported containers of physically verifiable US dollar bills from Iran to the EU. This would be the key draw for countries trying to make their fiat currencies crypto. They could then advertise it as a currency that is impossible for the host country to use for sanctions. This boosts the cryptocurrency's viability as a reserve currency, and once enough countries begin using it then the host country could print money to improve their country's consumption, living standards, and economic clout without worrying about inflating the currency away.
• Buttons840 7y ago
  My prediction: Average commute time will increase in proportion to the adoption of self driving vehicles.
  • criddell 7y ago
    I think so too. Autonomous cars are going to fuel urban sprawl like crazy. I know I want to get further out of the city. Once I can commute without driving I won’t mind a long commute.
  • Namrog84 7y ago
    I disagree and think it will decrease because self driving vehicles will act as pace cars and smooth out traffic considerably
• watertom 7y ago
  I think the climate is going to change much faster than any models predict, like 3-4x faster, because we went past the tipping point about 30 years ago. Phytoplankton populations will crash out in the next 10 years and the marine food chain will collapse. Extreme wether patterns are going to completely disrupt food production, which will cause mass starvation and a global immigration/refugee crisis. In the U.S., the terrified of everything elderly, and right wing will go for less freedom and more authoritative government control. They will also secede more control to corporations as a way of avoiding “big government”, effectively handing over power special interests and the ultra wealthy. Healthcare will however become nationalized because the system as it stands is out of control and therE is no way to reign it in, so costs will keep spiraling up until the system breaks. Marijuana will get legalized in most states, and the percentage of THC will start to get capped. Designer CRIsPR “therapies” will become popular. The U.S. college system have a major event, costs are spiraling out of control, and the colleges have no way to stop the cost growth, students are becoming more accustomed to online classes, in the next 10 years there will be a mass realignment of the U.S. college system, just like banking, healthcare. A lot of closures, mergers and partnerships. A commoditization of higher education, which will be good for some majors, like STEM, and really bad for majors that are more “subjective”. I also think we’ll see incorporation of what is seen as traditional “trade school” skills. Learning is learning, and is the schools can make it profitable, “why not?”.
  • AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    What's going to cause the crash of phytoplankton? Rising CO2, I presume, but by what mechanism?
    • Symmetry 7y ago
      Possibly ocean acidification could damage the cell walls of diatoms, which make up a fair fraction of phytoplankton? But I don't see how that could have been locked in 30 years ago.
  • radford-neal 7y ago
    Phytoplankton populations are not going to crash. Extreme weather is not going to cause mass starvation. There's no scientific basis for either of these things happening. Furthermore, you don't believe they are going to happen. If you did believe this, it would be absurd to talk about a "major event" regarding the US college system - "mergers and partnerships", "commoditization", etc. Really? Really?? What happened to the major event of the students starving to death? What happened is that you don't actually believe the stuff you say about climate change. You just think it's cool and sophisticated to say that you know that change will happen 3-4x faster than any scientifically-based model says. Because whatever...
• rayhendricks 7y ago
  One thing that was not mentioned was anti-trust action by the government. I predict by 2030 one of the FAANG + MSFT will have been investigated and broken up by the government. Leaning twords FB or AMZN.
• bransonf 7y ago
  A few good takes, but China becoming the dominant global power? Not a good take. China is fairly good at a few things, namely lending money and manufacturing goods. What they aren’t good at is making people happy. See Hong Kong for the last 6 months. I don’t think the United States is becoming increasingly isolationist. I think we’ve seen a brief period of these attitudes, but it’s not indicative of the next decade imo. And the author seems to think China will be able to rapidly adapt to change, pointing to global warming. China is the world’s worst source of pollution. I don’t think they’re going to 180, especially since their economy is built on it.
  • arnaudsm 7y ago
    I agree except with your last sentence. They have the biggest total pollution, but their pollution per capita is actually low compared to eastern countries, and they are investing and legislating aggressively for clean tech.
    • Phenomenit 7y ago
      Yeah but in this case absolut numbers seem more relevant, per capita will always be low if you're a billion population nation.
      • pulverizer 7y ago
        Since we all live on earth surface, per land area could be a good measure. US ~500 China ~1100 UK ~1500 Germany ~2000 Japan ~2000 South Korea ~4000
    • bobx11 7y ago
      That is a logical stat I never hear about and it looks they they are indeed lower than USA and Canada (and the worst, Middle East): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_... However it’s still far worse than most European countries in the list.
    • pedalpete 7y ago
• daxfohl 7y ago
  AI will attain perfect scores on international math and computing olympiads. Toward the end of the decade we'll see AI solve an unsolved Clay Millennium Problem.
• opportune 7y ago
  I don’t really buy into 4-6. I don’t see any benefit for a country to turn its currency into a crypto asset. Either they are relinquishing a great deal of control in democratizing their financial system (also exposing themselves to attack), or it’s a crypto in name only that doesn’t seem any better than digital cash through banks except for a buzzword. Decentralization is hit or miss. You get economies of scale with centralization that are hard to beat. I only see decentralization being useful for certain applications (namely, anything that needs to be censorship resistant/ can’t rely on the centralized infra for some reason) like it already is being used for. Meat won’t be a delicacy unless we are not counting lab grown meat. Absolutely no way. I would be willing to take a huge bet on this. People all over the world love meat, it’s one of the first things people start spending on when they hit middle income (globally speaking). Plant based alternatives will become a lot more popular especially once they become cheaper, and we will probably start eating mostly lab grown meat, but meat will be consumed, at least by stubborn, older red-blooded Americans wary of technology and set in their ways that the author likely has little exposure to.
  • pascalxus 7y ago
    Yes, the only way #6 will come true is if the replacement for meat looks, smells and tastes exactly like the real thing and it'll have to be cheaper too. People all over the world love meat, especially US, UK and the Chinese. I've tried to convince some family members to reduce their meat consumption even a tiniest amount gets a huge amount of resistance. People aren't going to give up their meat: they may not even be willing to try alternatives. Impossible meat has a great start and I think their market share will continue to increase. But, there's an immense amount of variety in the meat market and the alternative meat industry still has a huge amount of work to do to address it.
    • 6nf 7y ago
      Faced with a choice between beef or fake beef that tastes exactly the same, most people will just go for the real beef. They don't want the highly processed fake stuff that contains who knows what. The only way beef loses is if the alternatives are significantly cheaper. If a McBeef is $5 more than a McFakeBeef then you got a shot at converting people.
• grok2 7y ago
  What? No reference to country specific disconnected-from-the-rest-of-the-world Internet, a-la Russia's experiment a few days ago? To me, more government control over the Internet to the extent of governments basically sealing the Internet to within country borders with more regulation (taxes, anyone?) of out-of-country access seems like a no-brainer thing happening in the upcoming decade...way more than just the great-wall-of-china firewall.
• Yizahi 7y ago
  No excessive carbon taxation will happen. No significant or global emergence of digital currencies (not including regular "electronic" dollars or euro). Meat may become more rare along with fish (due to still unregulated in 2030 overfishing and acidification), but there will be no or almost no lab grown food. Mass surveillance will propagate even more but privacy will not succeed or become sought by majority.
• jl2718 7y ago
  > people overestimate what will happen in a year and underestimate what will happen in a decade. Last decade seemed like the opposite. So much happened every year, but nothing changed over the decade. The biggest change seems to be the expansion of aggrieved classes to include almost everybody. This only applies to “the West” of course. Changes elsewhere are perhaps striking.
  • dwaltrip 7y ago
    There are enormous changes ocurring. Rapid development of less developed countries, complete commoditization of computing power, secularization of america (catching up to Europe), revizitalizion of the space industry (SpaceX and other "new space" companies, smallsats, internet constellations, etc), amazing resurgence of psychedelic research, prosthetics and other biotech advancing rapidly, continued progress in many fundamental technologies (batteries, materials science, robotics, BMIs, etc), AI technologies, information representation and communication (changes in media, continued digitalization of business, etc). The list goes on and on.
    • gfodor 7y ago
      I agree - the list of technologies (not just bits and atoms, but human institutions) winding their way along the innovation cycle leaves many, many reasons to feel confident the next decade is going to be one of profound, transformative, positive change. One potential dark horse is genetic engineering. I wonder how close we are to the point where kids are doing gene hacking after school. It could happen this decade.
• dadarepublic 7y ago
  There was a smattering throughout about areas where the US lags. There was a lot of discussion around #6 but I found #3 to be quite interesting, esp. the last sentence: > Conversely the US becomes increasingly internally focused and isolationist in its world view I wonder what are some people's thoughts on this - specifically if they agree and what are some of the potential impacts to US citizens and abroad (influence, wealth, industry leadership, etc)?
• unexaminedlife 7y ago
  I think by the end (very end) of this decade it will become common place for at least the upper class to cryogenically freeze and store a cell culture to take advantage of advances in medicine that will also occur in this decade such as affordable / reliable processes for growing your own organs for transplant, etc.
• unexaminedlife 7y ago
  By the end of this decade a commercialized, industrial strength solution will exist for people to (a) make machines do things just by thinking, (b) transfer a subset of your thoughts to someone else just by thinking them.
• weej 7y ago
  Bizarre: In chrome this is rendering as strange character set in UTF8, but HTML source shows correct english text output. https://imgur.com/a/18CJCDY https://imgur.com/a/18CJCDY
• SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
  Fred Wilson (A VC) somehow dominates HN last New year as well... And was so completely wrong it’s shocking anyone would promote him year after year. It’s obvious to me people are doing so only because they WANT all these predictions to come true not that they have any basis in reality. It’s bubble talk for bubble people, no offense. His solution to NN (which we all died from, remember?) was “blockchain”. Here he is last year heavily propped up for saying Trump wouldn’t be in office after Mueller probe... Remember the Mueller results? Anyone not involved in hyper partisan politics knew it was going to be a dud. https://avc.com/2019/01/what-is-going-to-happen-in-2019/ https://avc.com/2019/01/what-is-going-to-happen-in-2019/ Just browsing his previous predictions just makes more curious how he gets spotlights here every year. 2018 he made a list “questions” answering only some himself, about 1/2 wrong. And 2017 is just... well... AI isn’t the new Mobile, Cyberwarfare isn’t the new Cold War: https://avc.com/2017/01/what-is-going-to-happen-in-2017/ https://avc.com/2017/01/what-is-going-to-happen-in-2017/
  • rokhayakebe 7y ago
    And was so completely wrong it’s shocking anyone would promote him year after year. This is a misunderstanding of how voting/promoting works. If someone is wrong you may want to promote them as much as someone who is right in the hopes of enlightening the masses. Also, you may disagree with something and find it interesting still. In that case upvoting makes sense. Upvoting != Agreeing. Unfortunately, when you do not have a button for agreeing or disagreeing, you are inclined to use the Vote button.
• ma2rten 7y ago
  Regarding China, I believe that the Chinese economy will collapse because less and less countries will want to do business with China due to it’s human rights violations. Regarding plan based diets, I agree but I think that eating meat will be seen as babaric. I believe that the way way we treat animals now will be seen similarly as we see slavery now. Regarding, decentralized internet and crypto currencies. I don’t see why those would happen and believe will see more regulation not less.
  • wayoutthere 7y ago
    > Regarding China, I believe that the Chinese economy will collapse because less and less countries will want to do business with China due to it’s human rights violations. Think you're totally wrong here. The only countries that will care about China's human rights record are the NATO countries. The other 6 billion people in the world live under governments that will be happy to work with a superpower willing to look the other way to their own transgressions.
    • ma2rten 7y ago
      But those are the countries that China would want to trade with. China also has territorial conflicts with all of it’s neighbors in South China Sea.
      • wayoutthere 7y ago
        China is very much in the same position the US was in at the turn of the 20th century: lots of territorial conflict with old powers, but a grudging recognition that the winds of change are in their favor. All it will take is a single small-scale conflict akin to the Spanish-American War and China will have unquestioned dominance over the South China Sea (like the US did with the Caribbean and South Pacific). Their neighbors will be forced to play nice with them or be blockaded. Which is exactly what the US did in the early 1900s with central / south American banana republics. There is a playbook for ascendant superpowers, and China is just playing their best hand. Anyone who isn't a superpower is just going to have to accept what China does.
• jackcosgrove 7y ago
  I too dream of a decentralized internet and especially decentralized cloud resources, but I can't find a way around the question of how you securely host a database on some random person's idle computer/"spot instance". If that data is compromised, who do you sue? The random person who has no assets? Data security ultimately depends on secure physical access to the hosting hardware. Not everything can or should be put in a public database, so you need physical security. Cloud providers provide physical security plus trustworthiness due to their reputations, as well as deep pockets to sue if something goes wrong. Most industries end up with only a few competing firms. Why would cloud computing be different? I'm open to solutions on data security.
  • jaggirs 7y ago
    1. Data Redundancy 2. Encryption
    • jackcosgrove 7y ago
      You need to decrypt the data somewhere, which requires holding the key in memory. What's to prevent a nefarious node in the distributed cloud from extracting your key? I could see a solution where every user has their own key, served by a securely hosted (non-distributed) server, and decrypting the data client side, but that doesn't cover all cases where you might need to aggregate or share data across users.
      • redisman 7y ago
        Only some workloads make sense to offload on such a network. For example I could see it working as a DYI render-farm. I guess the algorithm could be creative in which pixels to give each node so that they don't reveal the source data based on one corrupt node.
  • ironarm 7y ago
    I think it's very possible to decentralize databases. Not to sound like I'm jumping off the deep end... What if each set of decentralized data was verified by each user on... a block chain. Using a proof of work/stake model that each existing copy verified each new copy or propagated update. If the hashes didn't match with the greater pool then data would be considered corrupt and ignored. Even cooler is people could simply fork their data sets and create a new blockchain for their project. Truly free data. I'm iffy on the cryptos but it's appearing less and less of a solution looking for a problem and more a solution for many problems dealing with decentralization. For an interesting existing solution sans blockchain check out [gundb](https://gun.eco/ https://gun.eco/).
• booleandilemma 7y ago
  This kind of reads more like a wishlist than a list of predictions.
• bouncycastle 7y ago
  One prediction he missed out is the mining of space for scarce resources. (He just touched on commercialization of space, but he probably assumed things like satellite launching and space tourism) I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla/SpaceX towed a lithium filled asteroid to near Earth within the next decade. They are probably working on it right now. Save this comment and come back in 2030
• avrulz 7y ago
  the article pretty much ignores 80% of the world. its more like what will happen in america and china as my newsfeed only shows that all the time.
• ggm 7y ago
  In 2020 a cohort of US politically active people will die, retire or be replaced in significant roles. Ruth Bader Ginsberg is statistically likely. Saunders and McConnel likewise. This is influencing longer term politics because of obsession with 'legacy' such as the make up of the supreme court. Putin is less likely to move on. There may be a new leadership in Iran but culturally it's unlikely to be more flexible, if anything it's going to be less flexible. Europe already has it's new leaders. It probably won't be very different. A politically resurgent youth vote will be coming into it's prime pissed off with current tax and social policy in housing and education. And of course climate. The ww2 generation and it's successor will be dying out faster, but costing more in pension and health costs and contributing less in tax inputs. Ubiquitous internet will be a given but more overtly a dual edged sword as tax and national borders continue to collide No candidate for high office will have a blank sheet of high school pranks. Fifteen year old tweets will be held up to fresh air
• Leader2light 7y ago
  Nobody here is talking about the coming collapse. I predict the 2020s will be a decade of pain. Our environment and financial systems are on the brink.
• theincredulousk 7y ago
  I think the next decade will see a radical change in the materials used to make a significant percentage of common goods. From biodegradable materials that equal the performance of petro/plastics, to graphene replacing steel, aluminum, carbon-fiber, etc. for many applications. Also potentially changing the game with respect to microchip fabrication and performance. RE: Graphene though, there are so many military applications, that it’s hard to say what the lag will be to civilian technology. If history is any indication, and I hope it isn’t, there could be a decade or (much) more between first production applications and public knowledge that those applications even exist, let alone having access to products incorporating them.
• Damorian 7y ago
  I look forward to laughing at this list a decade from now.
• fernly 7y ago
  A lot of the regulations that "hamper" U.S.-based fiscal markets provide basic protection against financial mismanagement and corruption. The writer's supposition that relatively unhampered Asian crypto-currency markets would be trusted is highly optimistic. They are more likely to turn out to be prone to in-house theft or corrupt insider-dealing, or to external hacking (the 750K BTC lost from Mt Gox are still missing[1]), or to government control and manipulation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox#Bankruptcy;_stolen_bitcoin_(2014%E2%80%93ongoing) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox#Bankruptcy;_stolen_bit...
• ledauphin 7y ago
  #9 is hilarious. There will be 50 year old millennials in 2030, making the "prediction" nothing more than an observation about how political power has worked for all of known history.
  • pmiller2 7y ago
    Not to mention it completely ignores Gen X.
• Mikeb85 7y ago
  These predictions don't show any particular insight beyond the things that absolutely everyone talked about in 2019. Literally just predicting that some of this year's causes du jour will extend a decade.
• larnmar 7y ago
  On the central conceit about people underestimating how much happens in a decade... how much has happened in the last decade? I feel like very little has changed in the last decade. Technologically, socially, politically, it feels like we’ve lived through a decade of very little noticeable change, especially compared to other periods such as 1990-2000 or 1980-1990.
• stephc_int13 7y ago
  In my opinion, most the predictions made here are dumb, to be honest. It seems like a mix of wishful thinking and linear projection of a few trends this particular VC happen to like, but nothing bold or creative, nothing that could make me think and wonder. Are most VCs living in their own world or something?
• ekianjo 7y ago
  > 6/ Plant based diets will dominate the world by the end of the decade. Eating meat will become a delicacy, much like eating caviar is today. Much of the world’s food production will move from farms to laboratories. In this decade? Not a chance. Maybe in 50 years this is more likely.
• mythrwy 7y ago
  I'm in doubt on most of this. China won't become the dominate superpower this decade. Plant based diets won't replace meat. Youngsters won't replace oldsters in power (unless at that point they are the oldsters). A decentralized internet won't be the norm. There won't be a WWII level of effort against man made climate change and in fact after "nothing much happens" (again) the noise will die down. Here's my prediction for the next decade: Some unexpected stuff happens but mostly incremental changes. I do agree with #10.
• cletus 7y ago
  So, I have a problem with a large number of these points. Each point alone requires a long rebuttal that no one would read. I think Fred is way off here. The bullet points: 1. There will be no global change in human behaviour and activity that is against the short term interests of those people. Period. The way to replace fossil fuels with renewables is by them being a cheaper source of power. We're well on the way here for solar. 2. Until someone can devise a safe way to processor nuclear fuel, transport the fuel and waste and process and store the nuclear waste nuclear power is just not making any kind of resurgence. It just isn't. Believing otherwise is a pipe dream that ignores the significant externalities of nuclear power (as in the waste products from the reactor and refinement processes). 3. Why Fred thinks China won't have the same short term self-interest that every other country does seems fanciful at best. 4. Crypto currency doesn't solve any problems that most people care about. Bitcoin surged in value for two reasons: - So wealthy Chinese people could escape their country's capital controls and move their wealth out of China. Mine Bitcoin in China, sell overseas for USD, profit. - For illegal activity. Traditional currencies have reversible transactions (which most people actually want) and aren't subject to 51% attacks. Nor do they require technical proficiency to safely use. 5. Decentralized Internet is a pipe dream. 6. Plant-based diets by the end of the decade? Not a chance. I look forward to having a chuckle at this list in 2030.
  • henrikschroder 7y ago
    Actually, one more significant problem with nuclear power is that there isn't enough manufacturing capability to build reactor cores. Most existing reactors are decades old, and although we have a lot of theoretical knowledge on how to build reactors, how to build more modern reactors than the existing ones, we globally lack the practical know-how, there's no assembly line that we can just pick up reactors from. So the cost of a new reactors is almost unknown. How much does it cost to build the factory that builds the reactors? Handling nuclear waste is much easier, because we're actively working on that problem, there's practical know-how in spades.
    • wongarsu 7y ago
      "Modern" reactor designs would indeed solve many problems with nuclear energy. But nuclear reactors are for the most part extremely expensive projects with high risks, so only conservative designs that are well tested are actually being built. This has been a problem for the last four decades, and I don't see why it would suddenly change. If anything risk appetite probably decreases as civilian nuclear reactors stop making financial sense.
• spodek 7y ago
  Climate left out many other environmental issues: pollution, plastic, extinctions, etc Most of all Overpopulation. People fear discussing it now because they only know of China's policy and eugenics. I predict that the successful, non-coercive policies of Thailand, Iran, Mexico, etc that increased peace, prosperity, and stability will become better known. Those models will lead us to realize that we can peacefully and stably lower birth rate to increase peace and prosperity, easing all other environmental problems. We'll realize steady-state following de-growth works more successfully on a full finite planet than pushing economic and population growth forever.
  • jtr1 7y ago
    I'm intrigued by this and definitely open to learning more about de-growth models. Would you mind providing some examples of the policies implemented in these countries?
    • spodek 7y ago
      Alan Weisman's book Countdown revealed to me about countries that lowered birth rates without coercion. Before reading it I only know about the one-child policy and some eugenics attempts. I highly recommend the book. I just recorded a conversation with him for my podcast. Fascinating conversation but it's still in the editing queue. Off the top of my head, his main examples were Thailand, Iran, and Mexico. Here's a piece on Thailand https://www.context.org/iclib/ic31/frazer https://www.context.org/iclib/ic31/frazer. Wikipedia covers Iran between 1989 and 2006 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_planning_in_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_planning_in_Iran. Cultures including Japan and Italy saw dramatic decreases in birthrates without focused efforts. Here are videos of him: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=alan+weisman&oq=&gs_l= https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=alan+weisman&oq.... I haven't watched them, but probably will give you a jump start on the book.
• tamaharbor 7y ago
  I predict the 2020s will be strikingly similar to the 2010s.
• ilaksh 7y ago
  The global debt crisis and intractable US entitlements will lead to a global depression. China will promote a new cryptocurrency to compete directly with the failing dollar. The US and allies will attempt to use their massive military to defend the dollar. China will not have sufficient military might be so will lean on other countries in particular Russia with their nuclear arsenal. World War III will be sold on supposed moral grounds as all wars are. China and other countries will say that they need to defeat an evil US that is immoral and forcing the world to use their baseless currency causing great suffering. The US will say that China is attempting to create a global dictatorship with total control and no freedom. Both sides will see moral justification to fight to the death. As the likelihood of the war ramps up over the next few years, there will be a feverish push to create general purpose AI and improved robotic locomotion such as artificial muscle-based locomotion with high strength to weight ratios. Around the time that the first nuclear salvos arrive, perhaps around 2023-2025, these efforts will pay off with robust general AI and humanoid robots. By 2030, the planet will be a nuclear wasteland, with several billion dead. There will be a new religion pushing to give the AGIs full autonomy and control. The Martian colony will have a few dozen people already and rapidly ramping up. A growing group of nuclear survivors have adapted with advanced high bandwidth brain-computer interfaces connected to superintelligent AI systems that act as a supercortical layer.
  • buboard 7y ago
    When is the movie out?
• XCSme 7y ago
  My prediction is that the top 10 defining factors in 2020 will have absolutely nothing in common with this list.
• torinrittenberg 7y ago
  hey all - wondering your thoughts on my end-of-year notes around startup fundraising and VC. https://torinrittenberg.com/writing/looking-back-and-ahead-on-the-vc-funding-landscape https://torinrittenberg.com/writing/looking-back-and-ahead-o...
• deleted 7y ago
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• softwaredoug 7y ago
  > the US becomes increasingly internally focused and isolationist in its world view. There’s about 50-60% of the US population, and 2/3 of the US economy, that are very much eager to do business with the rest of the world. They are concentrated in urban areas, and thus have issues in the political process, but it’s enough clout that I wouldn’t make hard predictions about US isolationism in the 2020s.
  • gfodor 7y ago
    Isolationism does not seem to be anything more than a ghost. Any analysis that assumes that the current US administration is isolationist is in my opinion a tell that someone is trapped in a filter bubble.
• mrfusion 7y ago
  I’m really curious to hear what we underestimated in 2010? Anyone have some thoughts?
• aaron695 7y ago
  These are realy realy awful predictions. > We will see real estate values collapse in some of the most affected regions and we will see real estate values increase in regions that benefit from the warming climate. What happens this decade is the same as the last decade. The difference is small for any measure. Seas rise at about the same rate, climate changes at the same rate. wtf? If anything technology is improving and long term implementations are starting to be implemented to reduce the issues we saw from the last decade. > Plant based diets will dominate the world Meat will rise and continue to rise. The world is getting richer, this stats are undeniable. It's like they look at the fad at McDonalds down the road and extrapolate across the world. Once lab based meat becomes normal (perhaps this decade) it will increase even faster.
• cia-killer 7y ago
  I'm surprised this guy isn't bankrupt and homeless.
• guscost 7y ago
  For future reference, vote as you please: The “looming climate crisis“ and most of today’s popular academia will be a mainstream joke by 2030.
• jgrant27 7y ago
  Lost all credibility at "... Age and experience will be less valued ...".
  • swalsh 7y ago
    It's sad, but it may not be wrong. The AOC's of the world are popular for a reason.
• ermartin 7y ago
  Would someone please TLDR these comments for all of us?
• graycat 7y ago
  Plant based food? Well, let me think! I just ate a home cooked pizza. The total calories were 654, and 455 of those were from just the flour, a "plant based food"! More generally, in the US, big time grocery store items are milk, butter, cream, eggs, beef, chickens, and pork. For feeding the animals, we have grass, hay, wheat, corn, and soy beans. E.g., look at a rail yard https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Qv7y0W_mNM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Qv7y0W_mNM and see the long train of grain cars!!! We're talking a LOT of grain. For the retired dairy cattle, "think fast food" -- US hamburgers are not going away at all soon! Point: No way, not a chance, not even a teeny, tiny chance, will that huge industry and supply chain, with huge fractions of the land in the US South and Midwest devoted to growing animal feed, be displaced or even affected by "laboratory" anything. Sure, we grow some mushrooms in caves. And some greenhouses grow tomatoes and maybe oregano, bib lettuce, basil, rosemary, etc. But greenhouses and hydroponics both go way back with no chance of anything similar having a big, new impact now.
• ivalm 7y ago
  Wow, I think I disagree with... most of them? 1. While I do think climate change is something we need to mitigate now, political realities are very clear on this one -- people don't want to spend much money on mitigation. Furthermore, the dire consequences are still quite far away, doubtful 2020s are the years this will turn around. 2. I think for now automation will do what industrialization did before -- increase productivity which will lead to increase in consumption. I think it is only when we start approaching AGI when human labor will start becoming superfluous. Again, I don't think UBI is in the cards for mass adoption in the US or other major countries in the 20s (although I see it as inevitable on a longer time scale). 3. China IS a global super power, whether it will fully displace the US is again doubtful, they have the capacity to do it in the next 20-50 years, but probably not in the next 10. There is a lot of inertia against them basically everywhere (europe, east asia, india, etc). 4. There is literally no reason this would happen. Even private attempts on decentralized currencies (bitcoin/etc) did not produce assets that are used as money for regular transactions (not black market, not aimed at speculation). For countries it is even less attractive to start a crypto since if you have a stable fiat then why wouldn't you just... have the stable fiat? Countries LIKE having control over their currency. 5. Internet relies on hardware/infra that is currently privately owned by what are essentially local monopolies/duopolies. Unless laws that force infra sharing get passed (which in the US I just don't see happening), decentralized internet will absolutely not happen. Again, the 20s are now and we have no real movement in this direction. 6. Most people prefer meat. Currently population growth is such that meat production can easily keep up with demand. I agree that meat production is worse for the world (due to being resource inefficient) and I agree that it is more ethical to eat artificial meat due to decrease in suffering, but let's be real, most people will just eat the meat that is cheap and easily available. There is zero chance major countries manage to pass bills that would make meat expensive. 7. This one I almost agree with, I just don't think that there will be "a wave of hype" since without better propulsion/space elevators capital costs are obviously high and don't scale well (space isn't software). 8. I agree that governments will ratchet up surveillance, but I don't think consumers will be willing to put much money into privacy. I bet most people don't care (enough to spend money) about privacy, and the fraction who are OK with surveillance will only increase. 9. I mean, given that most baby boomers will be retired by 2030 I agree that they will play increasingly diminished role in the society, but I don't think it's because age/experience will not longer matter. 10. This is something I most agree with. I do hope that the 20s will be year genetics changes how we treat non-infectious diseases.
• cable2600 7y ago
  >6/ Plant based diets will dominate the world by the end of the decade. Eating meat will become a delicacy, much like eating caviar is today. Much of the world’s food production will move from farms to laboratories. GMO Frankenfood made in labs hasn't been proven safer than regular meat in peer reviewed studies yet. Eating all plants like potatoes in The Martian have to take multi-vitamins as well. It is boring to eat the same thing each day. McDonald's has farms so that it can sell a $1.48 McDouble cheaper than a $6 salad. If plants cost more money, why eat them when meat is cheaper? Ever tried to price plants in the veggie section? They cost too much, but you can buy a frozen pizza for $3 which is cheaper.
  • gfodor 7y ago
    It’s a fallacy when making ten year predictions to assume nothing will change in order to lead to the prediction. Presumably for the idea of plant based diets to dominate, there will need to be an available substitute for meat which is competitive economically and in taste.
    • bergie 7y ago
      It might be enough to force near prices to include their environmental impact. I think that's what the post says about meat becoming like caviar. So it would still be available, just way too expensive for every day meals.
      • cable2600 7y ago
        Jacking up meat prices would upset a lot of people. Meat-substitutes would have to be cheaper than they are now. Food By Products are already used in meat as filler. Like ground beef and hamburgers have cereal or soy in them.
• zoomablemind 7y ago
  Reminded me of 2009 "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century" by George Friedman of Stratfor. Among of his far fetched (but who knows, still possible) predictions was Poland becoming [again] a decisive power in Europe...
• hkyeti 7y ago
  There's a large plant based burger chain here in Australia. Many of their customers aren't even aware they aren't having meat, they just enjoy the taste. I definitely think the plant based prediction is on the money.
• knolax 7y ago
  > 9/ We will finally move on from the Baby Boomers dominating the conversation in the US and around the world and Millennials and Gen-Z will be running many institutions by the end of the decade. Age and experience will be less valued by shareholders, voters, and other stakeholders and vision and courage will be valued more I don't how the first part of his prediction leads to the other. By the time Millennials/Gen Z take control they'll be just as old amd curmudgeonly as the Boomers. All in all the article seems pretty light on justification.
• naruhodo 7y ago
  > We will finally move on from the Baby Boomers dominating the conversation in the US and around the world and Millennials and Gen-Z will be running many institutions by the end of the decade. Gen-X will continue to be forgotten, apparently.
• qznc 7y ago
  Interesting absence: No autonomous cars, no AI breakthrough, and no drone delivery.
• maddog3356 7y ago
  For "1/ The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one. It will require countries and institutions to re-allocate capital from other endeavors to fight against a warming planet. This is the decade we will begin to see this re-allocation of capital. We will see carbon taxed like the vice that it is in most countries around the world this decade, including in the US. We will see real estate values collapse in some of the most affected regions and we will see real estate values increase in regions that benefit from the warming climate. We will see massive capital investments made in protecting critical regions and infrastructure. We will see nuclear power make a resurgence around the world, particularly smaller reactors that are easier to build and safer to operate. We will see installed solar power worldwide go from ~650GW currently to over 20,000GW by the end of this decade. All of these things and many more will cause the capital markets to focus on and fund the climate issue to the detriment of many other sectors." there is an accurate one word summary -- nonsense. With two or more words, even worse than nonsense. It's time to drive a stake through the heart of this climate change alarmism. We can do a good job just in this little post. In simple terms, there is no serious evidence that CO2 from human activities at anything like probable concentrations will have any significant effect on the temperature or climate of the earth. Yes, CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but it is a long logical path from there to any claims of a significant effect. We need just two steps: (1) History. There is NOTHING in the climate history from the present back to about 1 million years ago that supports the idea that anything like realistic concentrations of CO2 from human activities will have any significant effect on temperatures. (i) For the ice core records going back ~1 million years, yes, both temperatures and CO2 concentrations went both up and down. BUT, if we just look carefully at the big graph in Al Gore's movie, with high irony, that graph totally destroys his claims from that graph: He misread the graph. The main point is that there is an 800 year delay; CO2 concentrations changed 800 years AFTER the temperature changes, from whatever cause. Specifically: (a) When temperatures started increasing, from whatever cause, CO2 concentrations were LOW, not high. (b) About 800 years later CO2 concentrations were HIGH, from increased biological activity from the higher temperatures. (c) When temperatures started to fall, from whatever cause, CO2 concentrations were still HIGH, not low. (d) The high CO2 concentrations did not keep the temperatures from falling. (e) Once the temperatures fell, about 800 years later so did CO2 concentrations. Net, CO2 did not cause the higher temperatures or keep the higher temperatures from falling. (ii) In the last 2000 years we had the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and there is no suggestion that CO2 concentration changes caused either. (iii) Starting in the 1940s and through about 1970, we actually had some significant cooling, but in those years CO2 from human activities -- WWII, pulling of the Great Depression, and the economic boom after WWII -- increased. So, we got COOLING, not warming, with the additional CO2 from human activities. Net, there is NO data from the historical record that supports the claim that higher CO2 will cause higher temperatures. (2) Yes, CO2 is a <i>greenhouse</i> gas. The absorption spectrum is at https://webbook.nist.gov/cgi/cbook.cgi?Spec=C124389&Index=0&Type=IR&Large=on https://webbook.nist.gov/cgi/cbook.cgi?Spec=C124389&Index=0&... So, CO2 absorbs in three narrow bands, one for each of bending, stretching, and twisting of the molecule, out in the infrared. No, Tom Friedman of the NYT: CO2 does not absorb sunlight, and anyone can confirm this by looking at a source of CO2, e.g., exhaling or the bubbles from soda pop, and simply observing that the CO2 is not visible and does not cast a shadow. So, the theory has been that the CO2 warms the planet. Then there has been ALARMIST CLAIM: Extra CO2 from current human activities will soon cause significant extra warming and, thus, "climate change", a "climate crisis", etc. Since the historical record can't support the ALARMIST CLAIM, we have to rely on the theory based on the absorption spectrum of CO2 and computation. Well the computations were done by dozens of teams, and the results are summarized in http://www.energyadvocate.com/gc1.jpg http://www.energyadvocate.com/gc1.jpg Net, as in this graph, nearly all the computations predicted rapid, significant increases in temperatures soon. Well the time of predicted increases came and went with no sign of anything like the predicted increases. In science, when predictions are made and found to be false, we junk the science. No doubt, the failures in that graph are some of the worst in all the history of science. GOOD science, e.g., the hunt for and finding the Higgs boson at the LHC (Large Hadron Collider), the observations that confirmed the predictions of black holes, many other confirmed predictions of special and general relativity, the A-bomb, the H-bomb, the design of the Hubble telescope, to the quantum mechanics in semi-conductors that are the core of current digital electronics, the science was just rock solid. We are just awash in super solid science, and the global warming computations in that graph are just a humiliation of anything scientific and just sick. So, for the ALARMIST CLAIM, there is no scientific support. For more there is the video documentary <i>The Great Global Warming Swindle</i> at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52Mx0_8YEtg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52Mx0_8YEtg there see (A) the remarks of MIT Professor R. Lindzen on (i) why any warming we might be getting now cannot be from CO2 and (ii) the huge pile of money that didn't just buy off the climate scientists but HIRED the climate alarmists pretending to be climate scientists, maybe 10 times more alarmists than real scientists. Also that documentary argues that the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age were caused by variations in the rates of sun spots. More sun spots increase the solar wind which, from more links in a causal chain, in the end slows cloud formation and has a net warming effect. So, since both (1) history from ~1 million years ago to the present and (2) the computations based on CO2 being a greenhouse gas fail to support the ALARMIST CLAIM, we have no scientific support or even meaningful evidence for the ALARMIST CLAIM or the proposed very expensive reductions in carbon, etc. In this case and quite generally, if we are willing to go forward with big, expensive changes without good evidence, then we leave ourselves open to some of the worst mistakes in all of civilization. One current example of such mistakes is killing off the rhinoceroses to get their horns for use in Chinese medicine. For another such mistake, there is from page 76 of Susan Milbrath, Star Gods of the Maya: Astronomy in Art, Folklore, and Calendars (The Linda Schele Series in Maya and Pre-Columbian Studies), ISBN-13 978-0292752269, University of Texas Press, 2000. with "Indeed, blood sacrifice is required for the sun to move, according to Aztec cosmology (Durian 1971:179; Sahaguin 1950 - 1982, 7:8)." That is the Mayan charlatans killed people to pour their blood on a rock to keep the sun moving across the sky. No doubt the sun actually did keep moving across the sky. If we go forward with the Green New Deal, the Paris Accords, carbon taxes, etc. we are making a mistake as irrational as in the Chinese medicine and the Mayans. Warning: It appears that now the sun is entering the part of the 11 year or so sunspot cycle with fewer sun spots. So, we are in line for a few years of cooling. So, don't believe a claim of the global warming alarmists that their efforts caused the cooling. At this point, continuing with entertaining the ALARMIST CLAIM is just nonsense, expensive nonsense.
• 29athrowaway 7y ago
  > 6/ Plant based diets will dominate the world by the end of the decade. Eating meat will become a delicacy, much like eating caviar is today. Much of the world’s food production will move from farms to laboratories. Before refrigeration, a considerable amount of meat on the market was spoiled, with a horrible taste as well as a horrible aftertaste. The price was much higher than today. You had to use a sauce to make it more palatable. It would have made sense to go vegan back then, but no. People are more willing to eat spoiled, expensive meat with mold rather than going plant-based.
• biolurker1 7y ago
  Majority of the HN community would downvote anything decentralized/crypto/block chain up until a few months ago. Lately I see less titled "why you don't need blockchain*. Let's see
• jon_akimbo 7y ago
  The fallacy I see here is the assumption that today's hot topics will still be as relevant in 10 years and not (as I suspect) superseded by wholly different issues and problems.
• pier25 7y ago
  The 2020s will be when the majority of humanity finally agrees that we need to make climate change our highest priority since it will be too obvious to ignore. See what's happening in Australia now for example. OTOH I don't think serious global action will happen in this decade. I seriously hope I'm wrong on that one because we are already 40 years late and I fear we might have passed the point of no return.
• magwa101 7y ago
  "Cancer solved", every 10 years. "Plant based diets", um, I don't know anyone that stays vegetarian.
• aussiegreenie 7y ago
  Here are my 2 cents worth of prediction. 1. Energy will become very cheap (almost free), solar and wind will be about USD 5-7 per MW-h (or ~USD 13 per BOE) 2. The Chinese CCP will fail. - China will return to local strongmen who may claim to be the CCP. But are really Warlords similar to 1919 - 1940. 3. Major ecological failure. The shit will really hit the fan. Millions dead and many more millions trying to get to rich countries. 4. Economic growth stalls - all the neo-liberal bullshit dies. Growth hits hard ecological limits. This is just the start, modern civilisation will be lucky to survive until 2040.
• randomsearch 7y ago
  Predictions for 2020s 1. Agree 2. Automation will be one of the anticlimaxes of the decade. 3. China will have a mixed decade, marred by competition from other countries for production, human rights scandals, a domestic financial crisis that will spread globally, and a complete slowdown in growth. But its government will survive. 4. Crypto currency will be no more relevant in 2029 than 2019. The dollar will continue to dominate beyond 2030, until at last in the 2030s the Euro is backed by a significant military force. 5. No decentralised internet will gain popularity. 6. Plant based diets will see a meteoric rise in the west, but will still be a minority by 2030. 7. Biggest story of space will be the failure of NASA to make much progress in landing humans on Mars. SpaceX will make the most progress along those lines, with a test landing of an unmanned craft, but safety concerns over manned flight will hold SpaceX back in serving NASA. 8. A surprising backlash against social media will see the end of Facebook (but Whatsapp will survive well, with Instagram in a long decline). Twitter will pivot successfully almost beyond recognition. 9. Baby boomers will no longer dominate the electorate, and a shift to the political left will take place across America and Europe. The UK will see the most left wing government since Atlee’s. The climate crisis will help make big government palatable again. 10. Progress on cancer will be piecemeal and slow. However, this disappointment will contrast with miraculous advances in treating and prevention of Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s. Mine... 11. VR will replace games consoles. VR will have a huge impact on society, but it will be only the beginning - much like 90s Internet, it will grow in importance decade by decade, but the 2020s will be remembered as the one in which it “arrived”. 12. Apple will decline to a shadow of its former self. 13. To everyone’s surprise, smart watches will have a come back in the second half of the decade thanks to hardware improvements, and will become almost universal for younger demographics. They will become a significant item of self expression, and related “digital jewellery” will also take off. 14. Electric cars will arrive faster than anticipated, putting huge strain on electricity distribution. 15. In the US, the college bubble will burst. In the UK it will not, but student numbers will drop and many universities will be forced to merge and close humanities departments. 16. Post Brexit UK will suffer a economic stagnation similar to Japan’s post banking crisis. Scotland will vote to remain in the UK, but Ireland will be reunified. A great number of people will leave the UK to work in the USA. 17. Putin will die, and Russia will enter a period of crisis and civil disorder. 18. After Trump’s second term ends in economic disaster, popularism in the US will slowly retreat. The democrats will be in power for the remainder of the decade, particularly focused on climate change. 19. Amazon and Microsoft will emerge as the great winners of big tech over the decade, driven by cloud services and consumer appliances. 20. A new e reader device that actually works well will be launched, destroying the kindle’s grip on the market, and will be universally adopted for education and leisure. The maker will be a newcomer and will end the decade as one of the most exciting startups since Google.
• blueyes 7y ago
  This post from Alex Danco contains a similar but much more opinionated and falsifiable set of predictions: https://alexdanco.com/2019/12/17/ten-predictions-for-the-2020s/ https://alexdanco.com/2019/12/17/ten-predictions-for-the-202...