nopinsight

5 ms·

1.
by nopinsight 24d ago
"It is extremely sad that this didn't end up as an example of how the labs could cooperate/coordinate, because the stakes will be so much higher in the future." -- Sholto Douglas, an Anthropic researcher [1] "Strong
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by nopinsight 2mo ago
I suspect an AI, possibly a successor to current LLMs, will achieve that by the early 2030s. It might help illuminate many mysteries in math and beyond for us all.
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AVAL: A new open-source format for interactive video on the web(pixelpoint.io)
2 points by nopinsight 3mo ago|0 comments
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by nopinsight 3mo ago
As someone who's always loved synthesizing ideas and having lightbulb moments, I find the headline flattering. I wonder, though, if there's any more rigorous and general analysis (hah!) of the complexity of these two modes of thou
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by nopinsight 3mo ago
Someone also input lots of pre-GPT texts to Pangram and they were all clear. The point is Kramnik’s claims are much weaker and not comparable.
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by nopinsight 3mo ago
To my knowledge, Pangram has a very low false positive rate approaching zero. (False negative is another matter.) I’m not sure that’s what you want to use as the analogy here? (I don’t know much about this Kramnik situation.)
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Design Crit: We taught AI to judge design like a designer(twitter.com)
2 points by nopinsight 3mo ago|0 comments
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by nopinsight 4mo ago
Quite frustrating to see all these cynical, borderline-irrational comments on HN. Maybe I should do what pg and other ex-HN contributors have done--avoid taking part in the discussions here. The level of discourse here has dropped so much.
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by nopinsight 4mo ago
Demis' bar is high and he stated clearly multiple times: AGI should be capable of inventing truly novel things. Examples he gave included the Theory of General Relativity and the game of Go. Just a taste of what's to come: https:
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by nopinsight 4mo ago
No one rational ever said software engineers were going to be replaced in 6 months. Some people said AI will automate 90% of coding in 6 months and they were not far off (and accurate in some contexts, e.g. startups).
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by nopinsight 4mo ago
Ten years ago, most of the skeptics in these threads would have said the success of AlphaFold 3 was impossible.
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by nopinsight 4mo ago
"Ten years from now, I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now... I believe that we're only a few years away from [AGI], maybe 2030 plus or minus a year... I think [AGI] will be an enorm
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by nopinsight 4mo ago
"Ten years from now, I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now... I believe that we're only a few years away from [AGI], maybe 2030 plus or minus a year... I think [AGI] will be an enorm
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by nopinsight 4mo ago
With incessant advances in robotics, how long would that continue to be the case? Should we start preparing for something that could be world-changing in the next 10-20 years?
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by nopinsight 4mo ago
Things in the real world often take longer than expected. Still, in cities where Waymo operates, many people routinely ride autonomous vehicles and prefer them. For software, however, a rapid turn is often a possibility. See: AI for coding
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by nopinsight 5mo ago
I have watched Dario’s interview at WEF referred to in the article and I am quite certain Dario didn’t say that. He talked about AI automating most coding already or soon, not software engineering as a whole. He did say a few months later i
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by nopinsight 5mo ago
This is already the case for many startups. In fact, the figure might be closer to 100%. The work shifts to requirements analysis, high-level specifications, and final review instead (after AI code review).
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by nopinsight 5mo ago
I assume you're using the "regular" Pro version of Gemini 3.1 for the above, rather than the Deep Think mode, which is more comparable to GPT-5.5 Pro. To my knowledge, regular 3.1 Pro is a tier below and often makes mistakes.
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by nopinsight 5mo ago
There are reasons, based on machine learning related theory, that justify the belief. Economics will likely sort itself out through optimizations, which are also highly plausible.
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by nopinsight 5mo ago
Given the capabilities of upcoming LLMs, I suspect that by mid-2027, most competent companies, outside specific niches, will not hire and might fire any non-senior “generative AI vegetarian” software developer. Note: I agree with others tha
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by nopinsight 5mo ago
From the author’s earlier essay: “A good way to describe myself is as a generative AI vegetarian. You can find a fuller explanation—and many, many links—at the above essay by Sean Boots, which I agree with almost 100%.” —- Given the capabil
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Anthropic: Project Deal(anthropic.com)
4 points by nopinsight 5mo ago|1 comments
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by nopinsight 5mo ago
> "a broken clock is right twice a day." The combinatorial nature of trying things randomly means that it would take millennia or longer for light-speed monkeys typing at a keyboard, or GPUs, to solve such a problem without dir
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by nopinsight 5mo ago
They probably want to select for high-quality ads without having to be responsible for filtering issues, whether false positive or false negative, which will adversely affect their reputation with consumers and advertisers. They probably wa
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by nopinsight 6mo ago
Ord's frontier-cost argument is right as far as it goes, but the piece doesn't engage with the counter-trend: inference cost for a fixed capability level has been falling faster than Moore's law. Pushing the frontier will lik
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by nopinsight 6mo ago
A growing number of non-technical managers are now using Claude Code to build small custom software. A larger share will use Cowork to automate routine business tasks. Claude Cowork will become easier to use and more automated over time, as
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by nopinsight 6mo ago
I don't think 'software brain' is required for non-coding tasks. Rather, it requires 'manager brain', the ability to delegate, direct, and review the output. Manager brain is more prevalent than software brain and l
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by nopinsight 6mo ago
> LLMs are better at 'fuzzy' things like writing specs or documentation than they are at writing code. At least for writing specs, this is clearly not true. I am a startup founder/engineer who has written a lot of code, bu
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by nopinsight 6mo ago
Jensen Huang said he commands thousands of AGIs but still feels pretty useful. Founders and CEOs are still needed to set direction, bring unique vision to life, and build relationships for long-term partnerships—-as long as humans still con
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by nopinsight 6mo ago
> nobody is sure if even their metered pricing is profitable This is most likely wrong. Lab executives insist that serving tokens is profitable. It's the cost of training next-gen models that requires them to keep raising ever large

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