7 ms·

> And yeah, I get it. We programmers are currently living through the devaluation of our craft, in a way and rate we never anticipated possible. I'm a programm

> And yeah, I get it. We programmers are currently living through the devaluation of our craft, in a way and rate we never anticipated possible. I'm a programmer, been coding professionally for 10 something years, and coding for myself longer than that. What are they talking about? What is this "devaluation"? I'm getting paid more than ever for a job I feel like I almost shouldn't get paid for (I'm just having fun), and programmers should be some of the most worry-free individuals on this planet, the job is easy, well-paid, not a lot of health drawbacks if you have a proper setup and relatively easy to find a new job when you need it (granted, the US seems to struggle with that specific point as of late, yet it remains true in the rest of the world). And now, we're having a huge explosion of tools for developers, to build software that has to be maintained by developers, made by developers for developers. If anything, it seems like Balmers plea of "Developers, developers, developers" has came true, and if there will be one profession left in 100 year when AI does everything for us (if the vibers are to be believed), then that'd probably be software developers and machine learning experts. What exactly is being de-valuated for a profession that seems to be continuously growing and been doing so for at least 20 years?

hacb 1y ago
It's absolutely not easy to find a new job in France, and more generally in Europe
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  My experience and the ones I personally known, been in Western Europe, South America and Asia, and programmers I know have an easier time to find new jobs compared to other professions. Don't get me wrong, it's a lot harder for new developers to enter the industry compared to a decade ago, even in Western Europe, but it's still way easier compared to the length people I know who aren't programmers or even in tech.
  - IAmBroom 1y ago
    That's a quantifiable claim. Using experience to "prove" it is inappropriate. US data does back it up, though. The tech labor sector outperformed all others in the last 10 years. https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-...
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
ulfw 1y ago
> What are they talking about? What is this "devaluation"? I'm getting paid more than ever for a job I feel like I almost shouldn't get paid for (I'm just having fun) You do realise your position of luck is not normal, right? This is not how your average Techie 2025 is.
- lopis 1y ago
  Specially for new developers. Entry level jobs have practically evaporated.
- ishouldbework 1y ago
  Well, speaking just for central Europe, it is pretty average. Sure, entry-level positions are different story, but anyone with at least few years for work experience can find reasonably payed job fairly quickly.
  - IAmBroom 1y ago
    Others in Europe in this thread contradict your belief. Actual data is convincing; few are providing it.
    - ishouldbework 1y ago
      Fair. My "information" is based on what I heard in my network. :)
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  I don't know what "position of luck" you're talking about, it's been dedicated effort to practice programming and suffer through a lot of shit until I got my first comfy programming job. And even if I'm experienced now, I still have peers and acquaintances who are getting into the industry, I'm not sitting in my office with my eyes closed exactly.
- Aeolun 1y ago
  That’s probably because the definition of ‘average techie’ has been on a rapid downward trajectory for years? You can justify the waste when money is free. Not when you need them to do something.
lopis 1y ago
The job of a programmer is, and has always been, 50% making our job obsolete (through various forms of automation) and 50% ensuring our job security (through various forms of abstraction).
- empath75 1y ago
  Over the course of my career, probably 2/3rds of the roles I have had (as in my day to day work, not necessarily the title) just no longer exist, because people like me eliminated them. I personally was the last person that had a few of those jobs because I mostly automated them and got promoted and they didn't hire a replacement. It's not that they hired less people though, they just hired more people, paid them more money, and they focused on more valuable work.
GlacierFox 1y ago
Are we living on the same planet?
- belter 1y ago
  No... :-)
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  Considering we surely have wildly different experiences and contexts, you could almost say we live on the same planet, but it looks very different to each and one of us :)
kalaksi 1y ago
> programmers should be some of the most worry-free individuals on this planet, the job is easy, well-paid, not a lot of health drawbacks... I don't know what kind of work you do but this depends a lot on what kind of projects you work on
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  Across ~10 jobs or so, mostly as a employee of 5-100 person companies, sometimes as a consultant, sometimes as a freelancer, but always with a comfy paycheck compared to any other career, and never as taxing (mental and physical) as the physical labor I did before I was a programmer, and that some of my peers are still doing. Of course, there is always exceptions, like programmers who need to hike to volcanos to setup sensors and what not, but generally, programmers have one of the most comfortable jobs on the planet today. If you're a programmer, I think it should come relatively easy to acknowledge this.
  - kalaksi 1y ago
    Sure, it's mostly comfy and well-paid. But like with physical labor, there are jobs/projects that are easy and not as taxing, and jobs that are harder and more taxing (in this case mentally).
    - embedding-shape 1y ago
      Yes, you'll end up in situations where peers/bosses/clients aren't the most pleasant, but compare that to any customer facing job, you'll quickly be able to shed those moments as countless people face those seldom situations on a daily basis. You can give it a try, work in a call center for a month, and you'll acquire more stress during that month than even the worst managed software project.
      - kalaksi 1y ago
        When I was younger, I worked doing sales and customer service at a mall. Mostly approaching people and trying to pitch a product. Didn't pay well, was very easy to get into and do, but I don't enjoy that kind of work (and many people don't enjoy programming and would actually hate it) and it was temporary anyway. I still feel like that was much easier, but more boring.
amrocha 1y ago
There’s been over 1 million people laid off in tech in the past 4 years https://www.trueup.io/layoffs https://www.trueup.io/layoffs
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  Again, sucks to be in the US as a programmer today maybe, but this isn't true elsewhere in the world, and especially not if you already have at least some experience.
  - lm28469 1y ago
    Definitely true in western Europe, and finding a job is extremely hard for the vast majority of non expert devs. Of course if you're in south eastern europe or in south asia where all the jobs are being offshored you're having the time of your life.
    - embedding-shape 1y ago
      > Definitely true in western Europe, and finding a job is extremely hard for the vast majority of non expert devs. I don't know what else to say except that hasn't been my experience personally, nor the experience of my acquaintances who've re-skilled to become programmers these last few years, in Western Europe.
      - amrocha 1y ago
        Do you base your entire worldview purely on your own personal experience?
        embedding-shape 1y ago
        [flagged]
        amrocha 1y ago
csmantle 1y ago
> programmers should be some of the most worry-free individuals on this planet, the job is easy, well-paid, not a lot of health drawbacks if you have a proper setup and relatively easy to find a new job when you need it Not in where I live though. Competition is fierce, both in industry and academia, for most posts being saturated and most employees face "HR optimization" in their late 30s. Not to mention working over time, and its physical consequences.
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  Again, compare this to other professions, don't look at in isolation, and you'll see why you're still (or will have, seems you're a student still) having a much more pleasant life than others.
  - MattRix 1y ago
    This “compare it to other professions” thing doesn’t really work when those other professions are not the one you actually do. The idea that someone should never be miserable in their job because other more miserable jobs exist is not realistic.
    - embedding-shape 1y ago
      It's a useful thing to look at when you feel like all hope is lost and "wow is so difficult being a programmer" strikes, because it'll make you realize how easy you have it compared to non-programmers/nom-tech people.
      - MattRix 1y ago
        Realizing how supposedly “easy” you have it compared to other people is not as encouraging or motivational as you’re implying it is. And how “easy” do you have it if you can’t find a job in your field?
        embedding-shape 1y ago
Mashimo 1y ago
> What exactly is being de-valuated for a profession that seems to be continuously growing A lot of newly skilled job applicants can't find anything in the job market right now.
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  Based on conversations with peers for the last ~3 years or so, some of retrained to become programmers, this doesn't seem to as absolute as you paint it out to be. But as mentioned earlier, the situation in the US seems much more dire than elsewhere. People I know who entered the programming profession in South America, Europe and Asia for these last years don't seem to have more troubles than I had when I got started. Yes, it requires work, just like it did before.
  - DJBunnies 1y ago
    Nah it's pretty bad, but congrats on being an outlier.
    - embedding-shape 1y ago
      Literally the worst job you can find as a programmer today (if you lower you standards and particularly, stay away from cryptocurrency jobs) is 10x better than the non-programmer jobs you can find. If you don't trust me, give a non-programming job a try for 1 year and then come back and tell me how much more comfy $JOB was :)
      - nake89 1y ago
        > give a non-programming job a try for 1 year I have a mortgage, 3 kids and a wife to support. So no. I don't think I'm going to do that. Also, I like my programming job. EDIT: Sorry I thought you were saying the opposite. Didn't realize you were the OP of this thread.
      - kamaal 1y ago
        >>Literally the worst job you can find as a programmer today (if you lower you standards and particularly, stay away from cryptocurrency jobs) is 10x better than the non-programmer jobs you can find. A lot of non-programmer jobs have a kind of union protection, pension plans and other perks even with health care. That makes a crappy salary and work environment bearable. There was this VP of HR, in a Indian outsourcing firm, and she something to the effect that Software jobs appear like would pay to the moon, have an employee generate tremendous value for the company and general appeal that only smart people work these jobs. None of this happens with the majority of the people. So after 10-15 years you actually kind of begin to see why some one might want to work a manufacturing job. Life is long, job guarantee, pensions etc matter far more than 'move fast and break thing' glory as you age.
mschuster91 1y ago
> What are they talking about? What is this "devaluation"? I'm not paid enough to clean up shit after an AI. Behind an intern or junior? Sure, I enjoy that because I can tell them how shit works, where they went off the rails, and I can be sure they will not repeat that mistake and be better programmers afterwards. But an AI? Oh good luck with that and good luck dealing with the "updates" that get forced upon you. Fuck all of that, I'm out.
- flir 1y ago
  > I'm not paid enough to clean up shit after an AI. I enjoy making things work better. I'm lucky in that, because there's always been more brownfield work than greenfield work. I think of it as being an editor, not an author. Hacking into vibe code with a machete is kinda fun.
m_a_g 1y ago
> I'm getting paid more than ever for a job I feel like I almost shouldn't get paid for (I'm just having fun) In my Big Tech job, I sometimes forget that some people can really enjoy what they do. It seems like you're in a fortunate position of both high pay and high enjoyment. Congratulations! Out of curiosity, what do you work on?
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  Right now I'm doing consulting for two companies, maybe a couple of hours per week, mostly having downtime and trying to expand on my machine learning knowledge. But in general, every job I've had has been "high pay and high enjoyment" even when I initially had "shit pay" compared to other programmers, and the product wasn't really fun, I was still programming, an activity I still love. Compare this to the jobs I did before, where the physical toll makes it impossible to do anything after work as you're exhausted, and even if I got paid more than my first programming job, that your body is literally unable to move once you get home, makes the pay matter less and feel less. But for a programmer, you can literally sit still all day, have some meetings in a warm office, talk with some people, type some things into a document, sit and think for a while, and in the end of the month you get a paycheck. If you never worked in another profession, I think you ("The Programmer") don't realize how lucky you are compared to the rest of the world.
  - IAmBroom 1y ago
    A useful viewpoint. I too have worked in shit jobs. I too appreciate that I am currently in a 70F room of my house, wearing a T-shirt and comfy pants, and able to pet my doggos at will.
  - queenkjuul 1y ago
    I work remote and i hate it, sitting all day is killing me, my 5 minute daily stand-up is nowhere near enough social interaction for a whole day's work. I've been looking for a role better suited to me for over a year, but the market is miserable. I miss having jobs where at least a lot of the time i was moving around or working directly with other people. More than anything else i miss casual conversation with coworkers (which still happened with excruciating rarity even when i was doing most of my programming in an office). I'm glad you love programming and find the career ideal. I don't mean to harp or whine, just pointing out your ideals aren't universal even amount programmers.
zombot 1y ago
I'd love to live on the same planet you do.
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  Gained life experience is always possible, regardless of your age :) Give other professions a try, and see the difference for yourself.
roxolotl 1y ago
I came here to quote the same quote but with the opposite sentiment. If you look at the history of work, at least in the states, it’s a history of almost continual devaluation and automation. I’ve been assuming that my generation, entering the profession in the 2010s, will be the last where it’s a pathway to an upper middle class life. Just like the factory workers before us automation will come for those who do mostly repetitive tasks. Sure there will be well paid professional software devs in the future just as there are some well paid factory workers who mostly maintain machines. But the scale of the opportunity will be much smaller.
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  But in the end, we didn't end up with less factories that do more, we ended up with more factories that does more. Why wouldn't the same happen here? Instead of these programmers jamming out boilerplate 24/7, why are they unable to improve their skill further and move with the rest of the industry, if that's needed? Just like other professions adopt to how society is shaped, why should programming be an exception to that?
  - overflow897 1y ago
    And how is the quality of life for those factory workers? It's almost like the craft of making physical things has been devalued even if we're making more physical things than ever.
    - embedding-shape 1y ago
      If you live in a country where worker's health and lives are valued, pretty good. 98% of them are in a union, so they can't get fired from nowhere, they have reliable salary each month, free healthcare (as everyone else in the country) and they can turn off when they come home. Most of them work on rotation, so usually you'd do one week of one station, then one week of another station, and so on, so it doesn't get too repetitive. Lots of quality of life improvements are still happening, even for these workers. Of course, I won't claim it's glamorous or anything, but the idea that factory workers somehow will disappear tomorrow feels far out there, and I'm generally optimistic about the future.
thunky 1y ago
> What exactly is being de-valuated for a profession You're probably fine as a more senior dev...for now. But if I was a junior I'd be very worried about the longevity I can expect as a dev. It's already easier for many/most cases to assign work to a LLM vs handholding a human through it. Plus as an industry we've been exploiting our employer's lack of information to extract large salaries to produce largely poor quality outputs imo. And as that ignorance moat gets smaller, this becomes harder to pull off.
- spicyusername 1y ago
  > assign work to an LLM This is just not happening anywhere around me. I don't know why it keeps getting repeated in every one of these discussions. Every software engineer I know is using LLM tools, but every team around me is still hiring new developers. Zero firing is happening in any circle near me due to LLMs. LLMs can not do unsupervised work, period. They do not replace developers. They replace Stack Overflow and Google.
  - grumbel 1y ago
    > This is just not happening anywhere around me. Don't worry about where AI is today, worry about where it will be in 5-10 years. AI is brand new bleeding edge technology right now, and adaption always takes time, especially when the integration with IDEs and such is even more bleeding edge than the underlying AI systems themselves. And speaking about the future, I wouldn't just worry about it replacing the programmer, I'd worry about it replacing the program. The future we are heading into might be one where the AI is your OS. If you need an app to do something, you can just make it up on the spot, a lot of classic programs will no longer need to exist.
    - danaris 1y ago
      > Don't worry about where AI is today, worry about where it will be in 5-10 years. And where will it be in 5-10 years? Because right now, the trajectory looks like "right about where it is today, with maybe some better integrations". Yes, LLMs experienced a period of explosive growth over the past 5-8 years or so. But then they hit diminishing returns, and they hit them hard. Right now, it looks like a veritable plateau. If we want the difference between now and 5-10 years from now and the difference between now and 5-10 years ago to look similar, we're going to need a new breakthrough. And those don't come on command.
Xenoamorphous 1y ago
> the US seems to struggle with that specific point as of late, yet it remains true in the rest of the world Are you sure about that?
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  No, I'm just pulling anecdotes out of my ass/am hallucinating. Is there something specific you'd like to point me to, besides just replying with a soundbite?
  - IAmBroom 1y ago
    Data.
  - RHSeeger 1y ago
    Admittedly, there's the responses in this thread with people saying "I'm in <some country that isn't the US> and the market here is bad, too".
    - embedding-shape 1y ago
      Admittedly, there seems to be responses that also disagree with that, just like I did. So I guess it depends? News at 11:00.
  - llm_nerd 1y ago
    How about you tell us where the market is good for devs? It is heinous in Canada and all of Europe that I'm aware of. Are you in China? India?
    - embedding-shape 1y ago
      Western Europe is fine, for seniors as well as newcomers, based on my own experience and friends & acquaintances. Then based on more acquaintances South America and Asia seems OK too. But again, ensure you actually understand the context here. What does "heinous" actually mean here? I've repeated it before, but I guess one more time can't hurt: I'm not saying it isn't difficult to find a job as a developer today compared to a decade ago, but what I am saying is that it's a thing across all sectors and developers aren't hit by it worse than any other sector. Hiring freezes has been happening in not just technology companies, but across the board.
spicyusername 1y ago
100% my experience as well. Negativity spreads so much more quickly than positivity online, and I feel as though too many people live in self reinforcing negative comment sections and blog posts than in the real world, which gives them a distorted view. My opinion is that LLMs are doing nothing but accelerating what's possible with the craft, not eliminating it. If anything, this makes a single developer MORE valuable, because they can now do more with less.
- evnp 1y ago
  Exactly. The problem is instead of getting a raise because "you can do more now" your colleagues will be laid off. Why pay for 3 devs when the work can be done by 1 now? And we all better hope that actually pans out in whatever legacy codebase we're dealing with. Now the job market is flooded due to layoffs, further justifying lack of comp adjustment - add inflation, and you have "de-valuing" in direct form.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
queenkjuul 1y ago
You clearly haven't tried looking for a job in the last two years have you
conradfr 1y ago
I didn't enter this profession because I love reviewing code though.
- elif 1y ago
  Then use better software engineering paradigms in how your AI builds projects. I find the more I specify about all the stuff I thought was hilariously pedantic hyper-analysis when I was in school, the less I have to interpret. If you use test-driven, well-encapsulated object oriented programming in an idiomatic form for your language/framework, all you really end up needing to review is "are these tests really testing everything they should."
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  It is a part of gaining experience and knowledge though. If you aren't a senior right now, eventually you will be, and one of the expectations will be that you can read and review more novice programmers code and help them improve it, and lend a helping hand when you can. Eventually, all you do will be to review the work others have done after you instructing them to do the thing. Not to mention reading through really great written programs is personally a great joy for me, and almost always learn something new. But, probably remaining a developer who runs through tickets in JIRA without much care for collaboration could be feasible in some type of companies too.
tester756 1y ago
>the job is easy software engineering is easy? you live in bubble, try teaching programming to someone new to it and you'll realize how muuuuch effort it requires
- marbro 1y ago
  [dead]
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  Have you tried any other jobs? Have to ever tried teaching just the basics of plumbing to a 18 year old who can barely hold a screwdriver? If you want a challenge, try almost any other job than development, and you'll realize how easy all this stuff actually is.
  - tester756 1y ago
    I've been helping people with programming, from students struggling with classes, thru people trying to get 1st job, to people working in industry. They were passing their classes, getting jobs and completing their tasks. So I've witnessed how maaaany things people need to learn, what things are not easy to them and so on. I'm not saying other jobs are easy/easier, but none of my friends, who work in "traditional" industries like homebuilding, road maintenance, manufacturing, etc, etc. needed to push THIS MANY hours into it in order to get 1st job, be decent on it, improve, get promoted, etc. Almost none of them is learning during their free time in order to get better, etc. >If you want a challenge, try almost any other job than development, and you'll realize how easy all this stuff actually is. I mean, difficult != hard. software eng. is difficult cuz requires a lot of time to put into in order to be proficient.
swatcoder 1y ago
The "devaluation" they mention is just the correction against the absurd ZIRP bump, that lured would-be doctors and lawyers into tech jobs at FAANG and FAANG-alike firms with the promise of upper middle class lifestyles for trivially weaving together API calls and jockeying JIRA tickets. You didn't have to spend years more in grad school, you didn't have to be a diligent engineer. You just had to had to have a knack for standardized tests (Leetcode) and the time to grid some prep. The compensation and hiring for that kind of inexpert work were completely out of sync with anything sustainable but held up for almost a decade because money was cheap. Now, money is held much more tightly and we stumbled into a tech that can cheaply regurgitate a lot of so the trivial inexpert work, meaning the bottom fell out of these untenable, overpaid jobs. You and I may not be effected, having charted a different path through the industry and built some kind of professional career foundation, but these kids who were (irresponsibly) promised an easy upper middle class life are still real people with real life plans, who are now finding themselves in a deeply disappointing and disorienting situation. They didn't believe the correction would come, let alone so suddenly, and now they don't know how they're supposed to get themselves back on track for the luxury lifestyle they thought they legitimately earned.
- j4coh 1y ago
  I don't believe companies can reliably tell expert and non-expert developers apart, to sort them so efficiently to play out like you say.
  - kelseyfrog 1y ago
    The companies that can will remain and the companies that can't will perish. Not necessarily quickly nor gracefully, but the market stops all bucks.
    - marcosdumay 1y ago
      You are assuming no government intervention or anti-competitive measures. Neither has been true for a really long time.
    - 1y ago
Mountain_Skies 1y ago
Your complete lack of empathy is going to be your undoing. Might want to check in on that.
i_love_retros 1y ago
> I'm getting paid more than ever for a job I feel like I almost shouldn't get paid for (I'm just having fun), and programmers should be some of the most worry-free individuals on this planet, the job is easy Eh? I'm happy for you (and envious), because that is not my experience. The job is hard. Agile's constant fortnightly deadlines, a complete lack of respect by the rest of the stakeholders for the work developers do (even more so now because "ai can do that"), changing requirements but an expectation to welcome changing requirements because that is agile, incredibly egotistical assholes that seem to gravitate to engineering manager roles, and a job market that's been dead for a few years now. No doubt some will comment and say that if I think my job is hard I should compare it to a coal miner in the 1940's. True, but as Neil Young sang: "Though my problems are meaningless, that don't make them go away."
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  I guess ultimately our perspectives shape how we see current situations. When I write that, I write that with the history and experience of doing other things. Deadlines, lack of respect from stakeholders, egoists and changing requirements just don't sound so bad when you compare to "Ah yeah resident 41 broke their leg completely and we need to clean up their entire apartment from the pools of blood and pus + work with the ambulance crew to get them to the hospital". I guess it's kind of a PTSD of sorts or something, as soldiers describe the same thing coming home to a "normal life" after spending time in a battle-zone. Everything just seems so trivial compared to the situations you've faced before.
monegator 1y ago
> What exactly is being de-valuated We are being second guessed by any sub organism with little brain, but opposable thumbs, at a rate much greater than before, because now the sub organism can simply ask the LLM to type their arguments for them. How many times have you received screenshots of an LLM output yesanding whatever bizarre request you already tried to explain and dismiss as not possible/feasible/unnecessary? the sub organism has delegated their thoughts to the LLM and i always find that extremely infuriating, because all i want to do is to shake that organism and cry "why don't you get it? think! THINK! THINK FOR YOURSELF FOR JUST A SECOND" Also, i enjoy programming. Even typing boring shit as boilerplate because i keep my brain engaged. As much as i type i keep thinking, is this really necessary? and maybe figure out something leaner. LLMs want to deprive me of enjoyment of my work (research, learn) and of my brain. No thanks, no LLM for me. And i don't care whatever garbage it outputs, i'd much prefere if the garbage was your output, or you are useless. The only use i have for LLMs and diffusion models is to entertain myself with stupid bullshit i come up with that i would find funny. I massively enjoy projects such as https://dumbassideas.com/ https://dumbassideas.com/ Note: Not taking into account the "classic" ML uses, my rant only going to LLMs and the LLM craze. A tool made by grifters, for grifters.
abraxas 1y ago
You sound exactly like that turkey from Nassim Taleb's books that came to the conclusion that the purpose of human beings is to make turkeys very happy with lots of food and breeding opportunities. And the turkey's thesis gets validated perfectly every day he wakes up to a delicious fatty meal. Until Thanksgiving.
- lxgr 1y ago
  Unlike the turkeys, they seem rather self aware about it.
  - dugidugout 1y ago
    I'm sure, given the means, the Turkey could have written some convincing prose about their delicious fatty meal.
- ragazzina 1y ago
  The turkey story predates Nassim Taleb books by decades.
- theonething 1y ago
  Your comment is hyperbolic fear mongering dressed up in a cutesie story. Our industry is being disrupted by AI. What industry in history has not been disrupted by technological progression? It's called life. And those that can adapt to life changing will continue to thrive. And those who can't will get left behind. There is no wholesale turkey slaughter.
  - dugidugout 1y ago
    If you read the grand parent, they seem to be denying a disruption is taking place industry wide. The adage was used to illustrate how complacency is blinded by the very conditions that enable it, and while this is unfalsifiable and not very conducive to discussion, "fear mongering" is a bit rich to levy. Further: > Our industry is being disrupted by AI... No wholesale turkey slaughter. Is an entirely different position than the GP who is essentially betting on AI producing more jobs for hackers, which surely won't be so simple.
JeremyNT 1y ago
> And now, we're having a huge explosion of tools for developers, to build software that has to be maintained by developers, made by developers for developers. What do you think they're building all those datacenters for? Why do you think so much money is pouring into AI companies? It's not to help make developers more efficient with code assistants. Traditional computation will be replaced with bots in every aspect of software. The goal is to devalue our labor and replace it with computation performed by machines owned by the wealthy, who can lease this out. If you can't see this coming you lack both imagination and historical perspective. Five years ago Claude Code would have been essentially unimaginable. Consider this. So sure, enjoy your job churning out buggy whips while you can, but you better have a plan B for when the automobiles truly arrive.
- aishsh 1y ago
  I think it’s much more likely they’ll be used for mass surveillance purposes. The tech is already there, they just need the compute (and a lot of it). Most of the economy is making things that aren’t really needed. Why bother keeping that afloat when it’s 90% trinkets for the proles? Once they’ve got the infra to ensure compliance why bother with all the fake work which is the real opium of the masses.
- allturtles 1y ago
  I agree with all this, except there is no plan B. What could plan B possibly be when white collar work collapses? You can go into a trade, but who will be hiring the tradespeople?
  - Gagarin1917 1y ago
    The companies who now have piles of cash because they eliminated a huge chunk of labor will spend far more on new projects, many of which will require tradesmen. Economic waves never hit one sector and stop. The waves continues across the entire economy. You can’t think “companies will get rid of huge amounts of labor” and then stop asking questions. You need to then ask “what will companies do with decreased labor costs?” And “what could that investment look like, who will they need to hit to fulfill it?” and then “what will those workers do after their demand increases?” And so on.
syllogism 1y ago
Software to date has been a [Jevons good](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox). Demand for software has been constrained by the cost efficiency and risk of software projects. Productivity improvements in software engineering have resulted in higher demand for software, not less, because each improvement in productivity unblocks more of the backlog of projects that weren't cost effective before. There's no law of nature that says this has to continue forever, but it's a trend that's been with us since the birth of the industry. You don't need to look at AI tools or methodoligies or whatever. We have code reuse! Productivity has obviously improved, it's just that there's also an arms race between software products in UI complexity, features, etc. If you don't keep improving how efficiently you can ship value, your work will indeed be devalued. It could be that the economics shift such that pretty much all programming work gets paid less, it could be that if you're good and diligent you do even better than before. I don't know. What I do know is that whichever way the economics shake out, it's morally neutral. It sounds like the author of this post leans into a labor theory of value, and if you buy into that, well...You end up with some pretty confused and contradictory ideas. They position software as a "craft" that's valuable in itself. It's nonsense. People have shit to do and things they want. It's up to us to make ourselves useful. This isn't performance art.
ewzimm 1y ago
What is devalued is traditional labor-based ideology. The blog references Marx's theory of alienation. The Marxist labor theory of value, that the value of anything is determined by the labor that creates it, gives the working class moral authority over the owner class. When labor is reduced, the basis of socialist revolution is devalued, as the working class no longer can claim superior contributions to value creation. If one doesn't subscribe to traditional Marxist ideology, this argument won't land the same way, but elements of these ideas have made their way into popular ideas of value.
- elektronika 1y ago
  Marx addressed exactly this sort of improvement in productivity from automation. He was writing with full hindsight on the industrial revolution after all. I hope coding LLMs give professional computer touchers a wakeup call to develop some sorely lacking class consciousness. >the capitalist who applies the improved method of production, appropriates to surplus-labour a greater portion of the working day, than the other capitalists in the same trade […] The law of the determination of value by labour-time, a law which brings under its sway the individual capitalist who applies the new method of production, by compelling him to sell his goods under their social value, this same law, acting as a coercive law of competition, forces his competitors to adopt the new method. From Capital, Vol 1 Chapter 12 if you're curious.
  - blackqueeriroh 1y ago
    Marx was a racist.
Trasmatta 1y ago
> What is this "devaluation"? The part where writing performant, readable, resilient, extensible, and pleasing code used to actually be a valued part of the craft? I feel like I'm being gaslit after decades of being lectured on how to be a better software developer, only to be told that my craft is pointless, the only thing of value is the output, and that I should be happy spending my day babysitting agents and reviewing AI code slop.
acedTrex 1y ago
I consider the devaluation of the craft to be completely independent from the professional occupation of software. Programming has been devalued because more people can do it at a basic level with LLM tooling. People that I do not consider smart enough or to have put enough work in to output the things that they have nor do they really understand it themselves. It is of course the new reality and now we all have to go find new markers/things to judge peoples output by. Thats the devaluation of the craft itself. For what its worth, this devaluation has happened many times in this field. ASM, Compilers, managed gc languages, the cloud, abstractions have continually opened up the field to people the old timers consider unworthy. LLMs are a unique twist on that standard pattern.
- jrm4 1y ago
  Excellent take; this is like saying "being an amazing chef is devalued because McDonalds exists."
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  > Programming has been devalued because more people can do it at a basic level with LLM tooling But just because more people can do something doesn't mean it's devalued, or am I misunderstanding the word? The value of programs remains the same, regardless of who composes them. The availability of computers, the internet and the web seems to have had the opposite effect so far, making entire industries much more valued than they were in the decades before. Neither do I see ASM, compilers, and all your other examples of devalualing, it seems like it's "nichifying" the industry if anything, which requires more experts, not fewer. The more abstractions we have in reality, the more experts are needed for being able to handle those things.
an0malous 1y ago
I think comments like yours should include what salary range, industry, and company size your job entails. The last few years have been absolutely miserable for me at Series A YC startups
- embedding-shape 1y ago
  Salary range: 400 > 8000 EUR (monthly) over the years (starting job 10 years ago > last full-time salary) Industry I guess would be "startups" or just "tech", it ranges across holiday related, infrastructure, distributed networks, application development frameworks and some others. Smallest company I worked at was 4 including the CEO, largest been 300 people. Most of them I joined when it was 5-10 people, and left once they got to around 100.
  - an0malous 1y ago
    Thanks. So maybe there's a difference between European startups and American ones, or maybe I'm just really unlucky.
moralestapia 1y ago
Same here, my rate keeps going up ... I do see a shortage of entry-level positions (number of them, not salaries). Going through the author's bio ... it seems like he's just not able to provide value in any of the high-paying positions that exist right now; not that he should be, he's just not aligned with it and that's ok. I can see why he's desperate.
jimbokun 1y ago
Because there are now massive layoffs and graduating CS majors have a higher unemployment rate than the average new college graduate.
Summershard 1y ago
The amount of negativity your positive comment has received looks almost overwhelming. I remember HN being a much happier place a few years ago. Perhaps I should take a break from it. People working in one of the coolest industries on Earth really do not appreciate their lives nowadays.
theshrike79 1y ago
The only way to create senior programmers is for someone to hire juniors and let them grow. I'm not worried for my job, I can work _with_ AI very well. I'm not precious about my processes or ways of working. What I AM worried about is that if companies stop hiring juniors because they (try to) replace them with AI, we'll no longer have new seniors and the craft itself will deteriorate.

hacb 1y ago

It's absolutely not easy to find a new job in France, and more generally in Europe

embedding-shape 1y ago
My experience and the ones I personally known, been in Western Europe, South America and Asia, and programmers I know have an easier time to find new jobs compared to other professions. Don't get me wrong, it's a lot harder for new developers to enter the industry compared to a decade ago, even in Western Europe, but it's still way easier compared to the length people I know who aren't programmers or even in tech.
- IAmBroom 1y ago
  That's a quantifiable claim. Using experience to "prove" it is inappropriate. US data does back it up, though. The tech labor sector outperformed all others in the last 10 years. https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-...
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]

ulfw 1y ago

> What are they talking about? What is this "devaluation"? I'm getting paid more than ever for a job I feel like I almost shouldn't get paid for (I'm just having fun) You do realise your position of luck is not normal, right? This is not how your average Techie 2025 is.

lopis 1y ago
Specially for new developers. Entry level jobs have practically evaporated.
ishouldbework 1y ago
Well, speaking just for central Europe, it is pretty average. Sure, entry-level positions are different story, but anyone with at least few years for work experience can find reasonably payed job fairly quickly.
- IAmBroom 1y ago
  Others in Europe in this thread contradict your belief. Actual data is convincing; few are providing it.
  - ishouldbework 1y ago
    Fair. My "information" is based on what I heard in my network. :)
embedding-shape 1y ago
I don't know what "position of luck" you're talking about, it's been dedicated effort to practice programming and suffer through a lot of shit until I got my first comfy programming job. And even if I'm experienced now, I still have peers and acquaintances who are getting into the industry, I'm not sitting in my office with my eyes closed exactly.
Aeolun 1y ago
That’s probably because the definition of ‘average techie’ has been on a rapid downward trajectory for years? You can justify the waste when money is free. Not when you need them to do something.

lopis 1y ago

The job of a programmer is, and has always been, 50% making our job obsolete (through various forms of automation) and 50% ensuring our job security (through various forms of abstraction).

empath75 1y ago
Over the course of my career, probably 2/3rds of the roles I have had (as in my day to day work, not necessarily the title) just no longer exist, because people like me eliminated them. I personally was the last person that had a few of those jobs because I mostly automated them and got promoted and they didn't hire a replacement. It's not that they hired less people though, they just hired more people, paid them more money, and they focused on more valuable work.

GlacierFox 1y ago

Are we living on the same planet?

belter 1y ago
No... :-)
embedding-shape 1y ago
Considering we surely have wildly different experiences and contexts, you could almost say we live on the same planet, but it looks very different to each and one of us :)

kalaksi 1y ago

> programmers should be some of the most worry-free individuals on this planet, the job is easy, well-paid, not a lot of health drawbacks... I don't know what kind of work you do but this depends a lot on what kind of projects you work on

embedding-shape 1y ago
Across ~10 jobs or so, mostly as a employee of 5-100 person companies, sometimes as a consultant, sometimes as a freelancer, but always with a comfy paycheck compared to any other career, and never as taxing (mental and physical) as the physical labor I did before I was a programmer, and that some of my peers are still doing. Of course, there is always exceptions, like programmers who need to hike to volcanos to setup sensors and what not, but generally, programmers have one of the most comfortable jobs on the planet today. If you're a programmer, I think it should come relatively easy to acknowledge this.
- kalaksi 1y ago
  Sure, it's mostly comfy and well-paid. But like with physical labor, there are jobs/projects that are easy and not as taxing, and jobs that are harder and more taxing (in this case mentally).
  - embedding-shape 1y ago
    Yes, you'll end up in situations where peers/bosses/clients aren't the most pleasant, but compare that to any customer facing job, you'll quickly be able to shed those moments as countless people face those seldom situations on a daily basis. You can give it a try, work in a call center for a month, and you'll acquire more stress during that month than even the worst managed software project.
    - kalaksi 1y ago
      When I was younger, I worked doing sales and customer service at a mall. Mostly approaching people and trying to pitch a product. Didn't pay well, was very easy to get into and do, but I don't enjoy that kind of work (and many people don't enjoy programming and would actually hate it) and it was temporary anyway. I still feel like that was much easier, but more boring.

amrocha 1y ago

There’s been over 1 million people laid off in tech in the past 4 years https://www.trueup.io/layoffs https://www.trueup.io/layoffs

embedding-shape 1y ago
Again, sucks to be in the US as a programmer today maybe, but this isn't true elsewhere in the world, and especially not if you already have at least some experience.
- lm28469 1y ago
  Definitely true in western Europe, and finding a job is extremely hard for the vast majority of non expert devs. Of course if you're in south eastern europe or in south asia where all the jobs are being offshored you're having the time of your life.
  - embedding-shape 1y ago
    > Definitely true in western Europe, and finding a job is extremely hard for the vast majority of non expert devs. I don't know what else to say except that hasn't been my experience personally, nor the experience of my acquaintances who've re-skilled to become programmers these last few years, in Western Europe.
    - amrocha 1y ago
      Do you base your entire worldview purely on your own personal experience?
      - embedding-shape 1y ago
        [flagged]
        amrocha 1y ago

csmantle 1y ago

> programmers should be some of the most worry-free individuals on this planet, the job is easy, well-paid, not a lot of health drawbacks if you have a proper setup and relatively easy to find a new job when you need it Not in where I live though. Competition is fierce, both in industry and academia, for most posts being saturated and most employees face "HR optimization" in their late 30s. Not to mention working over time, and its physical consequences.

embedding-shape 1y ago
Again, compare this to other professions, don't look at in isolation, and you'll see why you're still (or will have, seems you're a student still) having a much more pleasant life than others.
- MattRix 1y ago
  This “compare it to other professions” thing doesn’t really work when those other professions are not the one you actually do. The idea that someone should never be miserable in their job because other more miserable jobs exist is not realistic.
  - embedding-shape 1y ago
    It's a useful thing to look at when you feel like all hope is lost and "wow is so difficult being a programmer" strikes, because it'll make you realize how easy you have it compared to non-programmers/nom-tech people.
    - MattRix 1y ago
      Realizing how supposedly “easy” you have it compared to other people is not as encouraging or motivational as you’re implying it is. And how “easy” do you have it if you can’t find a job in your field?
      - embedding-shape 1y ago

Mashimo 1y ago

> What exactly is being de-valuated for a profession that seems to be continuously growing A lot of newly skilled job applicants can't find anything in the job market right now.

embedding-shape 1y ago
Based on conversations with peers for the last ~3 years or so, some of retrained to become programmers, this doesn't seem to as absolute as you paint it out to be. But as mentioned earlier, the situation in the US seems much more dire than elsewhere. People I know who entered the programming profession in South America, Europe and Asia for these last years don't seem to have more troubles than I had when I got started. Yes, it requires work, just like it did before.
- DJBunnies 1y ago
  Nah it's pretty bad, but congrats on being an outlier.
  - embedding-shape 1y ago
    Literally the worst job you can find as a programmer today (if you lower you standards and particularly, stay away from cryptocurrency jobs) is 10x better than the non-programmer jobs you can find. If you don't trust me, give a non-programming job a try for 1 year and then come back and tell me how much more comfy $JOB was :)
    - nake89 1y ago
      > give a non-programming job a try for 1 year I have a mortgage, 3 kids and a wife to support. So no. I don't think I'm going to do that. Also, I like my programming job. EDIT: Sorry I thought you were saying the opposite. Didn't realize you were the OP of this thread.
    - kamaal 1y ago
      >>Literally the worst job you can find as a programmer today (if you lower you standards and particularly, stay away from cryptocurrency jobs) is 10x better than the non-programmer jobs you can find. A lot of non-programmer jobs have a kind of union protection, pension plans and other perks even with health care. That makes a crappy salary and work environment bearable. There was this VP of HR, in a Indian outsourcing firm, and she something to the effect that Software jobs appear like would pay to the moon, have an employee generate tremendous value for the company and general appeal that only smart people work these jobs. None of this happens with the majority of the people. So after 10-15 years you actually kind of begin to see why some one might want to work a manufacturing job. Life is long, job guarantee, pensions etc matter far more than 'move fast and break thing' glory as you age.

mschuster91 1y ago

> What are they talking about? What is this "devaluation"? I'm not paid enough to clean up shit after an AI. Behind an intern or junior? Sure, I enjoy that because I can tell them how shit works, where they went off the rails, and I can be sure they will not repeat that mistake and be better programmers afterwards. But an AI? Oh good luck with that and good luck dealing with the "updates" that get forced upon you. Fuck all of that, I'm out.

flir 1y ago
> I'm not paid enough to clean up shit after an AI. I enjoy making things work better. I'm lucky in that, because there's always been more brownfield work than greenfield work. I think of it as being an editor, not an author. Hacking into vibe code with a machete is kinda fun.

m_a_g 1y ago

> I'm getting paid more than ever for a job I feel like I almost shouldn't get paid for (I'm just having fun) In my Big Tech job, I sometimes forget that some people can really enjoy what they do. It seems like you're in a fortunate position of both high pay and high enjoyment. Congratulations! Out of curiosity, what do you work on?

embedding-shape 1y ago
Right now I'm doing consulting for two companies, maybe a couple of hours per week, mostly having downtime and trying to expand on my machine learning knowledge. But in general, every job I've had has been "high pay and high enjoyment" even when I initially had "shit pay" compared to other programmers, and the product wasn't really fun, I was still programming, an activity I still love. Compare this to the jobs I did before, where the physical toll makes it impossible to do anything after work as you're exhausted, and even if I got paid more than my first programming job, that your body is literally unable to move once you get home, makes the pay matter less and feel less. But for a programmer, you can literally sit still all day, have some meetings in a warm office, talk with some people, type some things into a document, sit and think for a while, and in the end of the month you get a paycheck. If you never worked in another profession, I think you ("The Programmer") don't realize how lucky you are compared to the rest of the world.
- IAmBroom 1y ago
  A useful viewpoint. I too have worked in shit jobs. I too appreciate that I am currently in a 70F room of my house, wearing a T-shirt and comfy pants, and able to pet my doggos at will.
- queenkjuul 1y ago
  I work remote and i hate it, sitting all day is killing me, my 5 minute daily stand-up is nowhere near enough social interaction for a whole day's work. I've been looking for a role better suited to me for over a year, but the market is miserable. I miss having jobs where at least a lot of the time i was moving around or working directly with other people. More than anything else i miss casual conversation with coworkers (which still happened with excruciating rarity even when i was doing most of my programming in an office). I'm glad you love programming and find the career ideal. I don't mean to harp or whine, just pointing out your ideals aren't universal even amount programmers.

zombot 1y ago

I'd love to live on the same planet you do.

embedding-shape 1y ago
Gained life experience is always possible, regardless of your age :) Give other professions a try, and see the difference for yourself.

roxolotl 1y ago

I came here to quote the same quote but with the opposite sentiment. If you look at the history of work, at least in the states, it’s a history of almost continual devaluation and automation. I’ve been assuming that my generation, entering the profession in the 2010s, will be the last where it’s a pathway to an upper middle class life. Just like the factory workers before us automation will come for those who do mostly repetitive tasks. Sure there will be well paid professional software devs in the future just as there are some well paid factory workers who mostly maintain machines. But the scale of the opportunity will be much smaller.

embedding-shape 1y ago
But in the end, we didn't end up with less factories that do more, we ended up with more factories that does more. Why wouldn't the same happen here? Instead of these programmers jamming out boilerplate 24/7, why are they unable to improve their skill further and move with the rest of the industry, if that's needed? Just like other professions adopt to how society is shaped, why should programming be an exception to that?
- overflow897 1y ago
  And how is the quality of life for those factory workers? It's almost like the craft of making physical things has been devalued even if we're making more physical things than ever.
  - embedding-shape 1y ago
    If you live in a country where worker's health and lives are valued, pretty good. 98% of them are in a union, so they can't get fired from nowhere, they have reliable salary each month, free healthcare (as everyone else in the country) and they can turn off when they come home. Most of them work on rotation, so usually you'd do one week of one station, then one week of another station, and so on, so it doesn't get too repetitive. Lots of quality of life improvements are still happening, even for these workers. Of course, I won't claim it's glamorous or anything, but the idea that factory workers somehow will disappear tomorrow feels far out there, and I'm generally optimistic about the future.

thunky 1y ago

> What exactly is being de-valuated for a profession You're probably fine as a more senior dev...for now. But if I was a junior I'd be very worried about the longevity I can expect as a dev. It's already easier for many/most cases to assign work to a LLM vs handholding a human through it. Plus as an industry we've been exploiting our employer's lack of information to extract large salaries to produce largely poor quality outputs imo. And as that ignorance moat gets smaller, this becomes harder to pull off.

spicyusername 1y ago
> assign work to an LLM This is just not happening anywhere around me. I don't know why it keeps getting repeated in every one of these discussions. Every software engineer I know is using LLM tools, but every team around me is still hiring new developers. Zero firing is happening in any circle near me due to LLMs. LLMs can not do unsupervised work, period. They do not replace developers. They replace Stack Overflow and Google.
- grumbel 1y ago
  > This is just not happening anywhere around me. Don't worry about where AI is today, worry about where it will be in 5-10 years. AI is brand new bleeding edge technology right now, and adaption always takes time, especially when the integration with IDEs and such is even more bleeding edge than the underlying AI systems themselves. And speaking about the future, I wouldn't just worry about it replacing the programmer, I'd worry about it replacing the program. The future we are heading into might be one where the AI is your OS. If you need an app to do something, you can just make it up on the spot, a lot of classic programs will no longer need to exist.
  - danaris 1y ago
    > Don't worry about where AI is today, worry about where it will be in 5-10 years. And where will it be in 5-10 years? Because right now, the trajectory looks like "right about where it is today, with maybe some better integrations". Yes, LLMs experienced a period of explosive growth over the past 5-8 years or so. But then they hit diminishing returns, and they hit them hard. Right now, it looks like a veritable plateau. If we want the difference between now and 5-10 years from now and the difference between now and 5-10 years ago to look similar, we're going to need a new breakthrough. And those don't come on command.

Xenoamorphous 1y ago

> the US seems to struggle with that specific point as of late, yet it remains true in the rest of the world Are you sure about that?

embedding-shape 1y ago
No, I'm just pulling anecdotes out of my ass/am hallucinating. Is there something specific you'd like to point me to, besides just replying with a soundbite?
- IAmBroom 1y ago
  Data.
- RHSeeger 1y ago
  Admittedly, there's the responses in this thread with people saying "I'm in <some country that isn't the US> and the market here is bad, too".
  - embedding-shape 1y ago
    Admittedly, there seems to be responses that also disagree with that, just like I did. So I guess it depends? News at 11:00.
- llm_nerd 1y ago
  How about you tell us where the market is good for devs? It is heinous in Canada and all of Europe that I'm aware of. Are you in China? India?
  - embedding-shape 1y ago
    Western Europe is fine, for seniors as well as newcomers, based on my own experience and friends & acquaintances. Then based on more acquaintances South America and Asia seems OK too. But again, ensure you actually understand the context here. What does "heinous" actually mean here? I've repeated it before, but I guess one more time can't hurt: I'm not saying it isn't difficult to find a job as a developer today compared to a decade ago, but what I am saying is that it's a thing across all sectors and developers aren't hit by it worse than any other sector. Hiring freezes has been happening in not just technology companies, but across the board.

spicyusername 1y ago

100% my experience as well. Negativity spreads so much more quickly than positivity online, and I feel as though too many people live in self reinforcing negative comment sections and blog posts than in the real world, which gives them a distorted view. My opinion is that LLMs are doing nothing but accelerating what's possible with the craft, not eliminating it. If anything, this makes a single developer MORE valuable, because they can now do more with less.

evnp 1y ago
Exactly. The problem is instead of getting a raise because "you can do more now" your colleagues will be laid off. Why pay for 3 devs when the work can be done by 1 now? And we all better hope that actually pans out in whatever legacy codebase we're dealing with. Now the job market is flooded due to layoffs, further justifying lack of comp adjustment - add inflation, and you have "de-valuing" in direct form.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]

queenkjuul 1y ago

You clearly haven't tried looking for a job in the last two years have you

conradfr 1y ago

I didn't enter this profession because I love reviewing code though.

elif 1y ago
Then use better software engineering paradigms in how your AI builds projects. I find the more I specify about all the stuff I thought was hilariously pedantic hyper-analysis when I was in school, the less I have to interpret. If you use test-driven, well-encapsulated object oriented programming in an idiomatic form for your language/framework, all you really end up needing to review is "are these tests really testing everything they should."
embedding-shape 1y ago
It is a part of gaining experience and knowledge though. If you aren't a senior right now, eventually you will be, and one of the expectations will be that you can read and review more novice programmers code and help them improve it, and lend a helping hand when you can. Eventually, all you do will be to review the work others have done after you instructing them to do the thing. Not to mention reading through really great written programs is personally a great joy for me, and almost always learn something new. But, probably remaining a developer who runs through tickets in JIRA without much care for collaboration could be feasible in some type of companies too.

tester756 1y ago

>the job is easy software engineering is easy? you live in bubble, try teaching programming to someone new to it and you'll realize how muuuuch effort it requires

marbro 1y ago
[dead]
embedding-shape 1y ago
Have you tried any other jobs? Have to ever tried teaching just the basics of plumbing to a 18 year old who can barely hold a screwdriver? If you want a challenge, try almost any other job than development, and you'll realize how easy all this stuff actually is.
- tester756 1y ago
  I've been helping people with programming, from students struggling with classes, thru people trying to get 1st job, to people working in industry. They were passing their classes, getting jobs and completing their tasks. So I've witnessed how maaaany things people need to learn, what things are not easy to them and so on. I'm not saying other jobs are easy/easier, but none of my friends, who work in "traditional" industries like homebuilding, road maintenance, manufacturing, etc, etc. needed to push THIS MANY hours into it in order to get 1st job, be decent on it, improve, get promoted, etc. Almost none of them is learning during their free time in order to get better, etc. >If you want a challenge, try almost any other job than development, and you'll realize how easy all this stuff actually is. I mean, difficult != hard. software eng. is difficult cuz requires a lot of time to put into in order to be proficient.

swatcoder 1y ago

The "devaluation" they mention is just the correction against the absurd ZIRP bump, that lured would-be doctors and lawyers into tech jobs at FAANG and FAANG-alike firms with the promise of upper middle class lifestyles for trivially weaving together API calls and jockeying JIRA tickets. You didn't have to spend years more in grad school, you didn't have to be a diligent engineer. You just had to had to have a knack for standardized tests (Leetcode) and the time to grid some prep. The compensation and hiring for that kind of inexpert work were completely out of sync with anything sustainable but held up for almost a decade because money was cheap. Now, money is held much more tightly and we stumbled into a tech that can cheaply regurgitate a lot of so the trivial inexpert work, meaning the bottom fell out of these untenable, overpaid jobs. You and I may not be effected, having charted a different path through the industry and built some kind of professional career foundation, but these kids who were (irresponsibly) promised an easy upper middle class life are still real people with real life plans, who are now finding themselves in a deeply disappointing and disorienting situation. They didn't believe the correction would come, let alone so suddenly, and now they don't know how they're supposed to get themselves back on track for the luxury lifestyle they thought they legitimately earned.

j4coh 1y ago
I don't believe companies can reliably tell expert and non-expert developers apart, to sort them so efficiently to play out like you say.
- kelseyfrog 1y ago
  The companies that can will remain and the companies that can't will perish. Not necessarily quickly nor gracefully, but the market stops all bucks.
  - marcosdumay 1y ago
    You are assuming no government intervention or anti-competitive measures. Neither has been true for a really long time.
  - 1y ago

Mountain_Skies 1y ago

Your complete lack of empathy is going to be your undoing. Might want to check in on that.

i_love_retros 1y ago

> I'm getting paid more than ever for a job I feel like I almost shouldn't get paid for (I'm just having fun), and programmers should be some of the most worry-free individuals on this planet, the job is easy Eh? I'm happy for you (and envious), because that is not my experience. The job is hard. Agile's constant fortnightly deadlines, a complete lack of respect by the rest of the stakeholders for the work developers do (even more so now because "ai can do that"), changing requirements but an expectation to welcome changing requirements because that is agile, incredibly egotistical assholes that seem to gravitate to engineering manager roles, and a job market that's been dead for a few years now. No doubt some will comment and say that if I think my job is hard I should compare it to a coal miner in the 1940's. True, but as Neil Young sang: "Though my problems are meaningless, that don't make them go away."

embedding-shape 1y ago
I guess ultimately our perspectives shape how we see current situations. When I write that, I write that with the history and experience of doing other things. Deadlines, lack of respect from stakeholders, egoists and changing requirements just don't sound so bad when you compare to "Ah yeah resident 41 broke their leg completely and we need to clean up their entire apartment from the pools of blood and pus + work with the ambulance crew to get them to the hospital". I guess it's kind of a PTSD of sorts or something, as soldiers describe the same thing coming home to a "normal life" after spending time in a battle-zone. Everything just seems so trivial compared to the situations you've faced before.

monegator 1y ago

> What exactly is being de-valuated We are being second guessed by any sub organism with little brain, but opposable thumbs, at a rate much greater than before, because now the sub organism can simply ask the LLM to type their arguments for them. How many times have you received screenshots of an LLM output yesanding whatever bizarre request you already tried to explain and dismiss as not possible/feasible/unnecessary? the sub organism has delegated their thoughts to the LLM and i always find that extremely infuriating, because all i want to do is to shake that organism and cry "why don't you get it? think! THINK! THINK FOR YOURSELF FOR JUST A SECOND" Also, i enjoy programming. Even typing boring shit as boilerplate because i keep my brain engaged. As much as i type i keep thinking, is this really necessary? and maybe figure out something leaner. LLMs want to deprive me of enjoyment of my work (research, learn) and of my brain. No thanks, no LLM for me. And i don't care whatever garbage it outputs, i'd much prefere if the garbage was your output, or you are useless. The only use i have for LLMs and diffusion models is to entertain myself with stupid bullshit i come up with that i would find funny. I massively enjoy projects such as https://dumbassideas.com/ https://dumbassideas.com/ Note: Not taking into account the "classic" ML uses, my rant only going to LLMs and the LLM craze. A tool made by grifters, for grifters.

abraxas 1y ago

You sound exactly like that turkey from Nassim Taleb's books that came to the conclusion that the purpose of human beings is to make turkeys very happy with lots of food and breeding opportunities. And the turkey's thesis gets validated perfectly every day he wakes up to a delicious fatty meal. Until Thanksgiving.

lxgr 1y ago
Unlike the turkeys, they seem rather self aware about it.
- dugidugout 1y ago
  I'm sure, given the means, the Turkey could have written some convincing prose about their delicious fatty meal.
ragazzina 1y ago
The turkey story predates Nassim Taleb books by decades.
theonething 1y ago
Your comment is hyperbolic fear mongering dressed up in a cutesie story. Our industry is being disrupted by AI. What industry in history has not been disrupted by technological progression? It's called life. And those that can adapt to life changing will continue to thrive. And those who can't will get left behind. There is no wholesale turkey slaughter.
- dugidugout 1y ago
  If you read the grand parent, they seem to be denying a disruption is taking place industry wide. The adage was used to illustrate how complacency is blinded by the very conditions that enable it, and while this is unfalsifiable and not very conducive to discussion, "fear mongering" is a bit rich to levy. Further: > Our industry is being disrupted by AI... No wholesale turkey slaughter. Is an entirely different position than the GP who is essentially betting on AI producing more jobs for hackers, which surely won't be so simple.

JeremyNT 1y ago

> And now, we're having a huge explosion of tools for developers, to build software that has to be maintained by developers, made by developers for developers. What do you think they're building all those datacenters for? Why do you think so much money is pouring into AI companies? It's not to help make developers more efficient with code assistants. Traditional computation will be replaced with bots in every aspect of software. The goal is to devalue our labor and replace it with computation performed by machines owned by the wealthy, who can lease this out. If you can't see this coming you lack both imagination and historical perspective. Five years ago Claude Code would have been essentially unimaginable. Consider this. So sure, enjoy your job churning out buggy whips while you can, but you better have a plan B for when the automobiles truly arrive.

aishsh 1y ago
I think it’s much more likely they’ll be used for mass surveillance purposes. The tech is already there, they just need the compute (and a lot of it). Most of the economy is making things that aren’t really needed. Why bother keeping that afloat when it’s 90% trinkets for the proles? Once they’ve got the infra to ensure compliance why bother with all the fake work which is the real opium of the masses.
allturtles 1y ago
I agree with all this, except there is no plan B. What could plan B possibly be when white collar work collapses? You can go into a trade, but who will be hiring the tradespeople?
- Gagarin1917 1y ago
  The companies who now have piles of cash because they eliminated a huge chunk of labor will spend far more on new projects, many of which will require tradesmen. Economic waves never hit one sector and stop. The waves continues across the entire economy. You can’t think “companies will get rid of huge amounts of labor” and then stop asking questions. You need to then ask “what will companies do with decreased labor costs?” And “what could that investment look like, who will they need to hit to fulfill it?” and then “what will those workers do after their demand increases?” And so on.

syllogism 1y ago

Software to date has been a [Jevons good](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox). Demand for software has been constrained by the cost efficiency and risk of software projects. Productivity improvements in software engineering have resulted in higher demand for software, not less, because each improvement in productivity unblocks more of the backlog of projects that weren't cost effective before. There's no law of nature that says this has to continue forever, but it's a trend that's been with us since the birth of the industry. You don't need to look at AI tools or methodoligies or whatever. We have code reuse! Productivity has obviously improved, it's just that there's also an arms race between software products in UI complexity, features, etc. If you don't keep improving how efficiently you can ship value, your work will indeed be devalued. It could be that the economics shift such that pretty much all programming work gets paid less, it could be that if you're good and diligent you do even better than before. I don't know. What I do know is that whichever way the economics shake out, it's morally neutral. It sounds like the author of this post leans into a labor theory of value, and if you buy into that, well...You end up with some pretty confused and contradictory ideas. They position software as a "craft" that's valuable in itself. It's nonsense. People have shit to do and things they want. It's up to us to make ourselves useful. This isn't performance art.

ewzimm 1y ago

What is devalued is traditional labor-based ideology. The blog references Marx's theory of alienation. The Marxist labor theory of value, that the value of anything is determined by the labor that creates it, gives the working class moral authority over the owner class. When labor is reduced, the basis of socialist revolution is devalued, as the working class no longer can claim superior contributions to value creation. If one doesn't subscribe to traditional Marxist ideology, this argument won't land the same way, but elements of these ideas have made their way into popular ideas of value.

elektronika 1y ago
Marx addressed exactly this sort of improvement in productivity from automation. He was writing with full hindsight on the industrial revolution after all. I hope coding LLMs give professional computer touchers a wakeup call to develop some sorely lacking class consciousness. >the capitalist who applies the improved method of production, appropriates to surplus-labour a greater portion of the working day, than the other capitalists in the same trade […] The law of the determination of value by labour-time, a law which brings under its sway the individual capitalist who applies the new method of production, by compelling him to sell his goods under their social value, this same law, acting as a coercive law of competition, forces his competitors to adopt the new method. From Capital, Vol 1 Chapter 12 if you're curious.
- blackqueeriroh 1y ago
  Marx was a racist.

Trasmatta 1y ago

> What is this "devaluation"? The part where writing performant, readable, resilient, extensible, and pleasing code used to actually be a valued part of the craft? I feel like I'm being gaslit after decades of being lectured on how to be a better software developer, only to be told that my craft is pointless, the only thing of value is the output, and that I should be happy spending my day babysitting agents and reviewing AI code slop.

acedTrex 1y ago

I consider the devaluation of the craft to be completely independent from the professional occupation of software. Programming has been devalued because more people can do it at a basic level with LLM tooling. People that I do not consider smart enough or to have put enough work in to output the things that they have nor do they really understand it themselves. It is of course the new reality and now we all have to go find new markers/things to judge peoples output by. Thats the devaluation of the craft itself. For what its worth, this devaluation has happened many times in this field. ASM, Compilers, managed gc languages, the cloud, abstractions have continually opened up the field to people the old timers consider unworthy. LLMs are a unique twist on that standard pattern.

jrm4 1y ago
Excellent take; this is like saying "being an amazing chef is devalued because McDonalds exists."
embedding-shape 1y ago
> Programming has been devalued because more people can do it at a basic level with LLM tooling But just because more people can do something doesn't mean it's devalued, or am I misunderstanding the word? The value of programs remains the same, regardless of who composes them. The availability of computers, the internet and the web seems to have had the opposite effect so far, making entire industries much more valued than they were in the decades before. Neither do I see ASM, compilers, and all your other examples of devalualing, it seems like it's "nichifying" the industry if anything, which requires more experts, not fewer. The more abstractions we have in reality, the more experts are needed for being able to handle those things.

an0malous 1y ago

I think comments like yours should include what salary range, industry, and company size your job entails. The last few years have been absolutely miserable for me at Series A YC startups

embedding-shape 1y ago
Salary range: 400 > 8000 EUR (monthly) over the years (starting job 10 years ago > last full-time salary) Industry I guess would be "startups" or just "tech", it ranges across holiday related, infrastructure, distributed networks, application development frameworks and some others. Smallest company I worked at was 4 including the CEO, largest been 300 people. Most of them I joined when it was 5-10 people, and left once they got to around 100.
- an0malous 1y ago
  Thanks. So maybe there's a difference between European startups and American ones, or maybe I'm just really unlucky.

moralestapia 1y ago

Same here, my rate keeps going up ... I do see a shortage of entry-level positions (number of them, not salaries). Going through the author's bio ... it seems like he's just not able to provide value in any of the high-paying positions that exist right now; not that he should be, he's just not aligned with it and that's ok. I can see why he's desperate.

jimbokun 1y ago

Because there are now massive layoffs and graduating CS majors have a higher unemployment rate than the average new college graduate.

Summershard 1y ago

The amount of negativity your positive comment has received looks almost overwhelming. I remember HN being a much happier place a few years ago. Perhaps I should take a break from it. People working in one of the coolest industries on Earth really do not appreciate their lives nowadays.

theshrike79 1y ago

The only way to create senior programmers is for someone to hire juniors and let them grow. I'm not worried for my job, I can work _with_ AI very well. I'm not precious about my processes or ways of working. What I AM worried about is that if companies stop hiring juniors because they (try to) replace them with AI, we'll no longer have new seniors and the craft itself will deteriorate.