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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected
- danuker 4y agoFinally the mania is slowing down. It seems the rate hikes and layoffs are working.
- InTheArena 4y agoProbably too strong of a statement. I don't view this as a huge miss (.2%), and ask anyone you know on a fixed income what this is doing to their retirement. Ulitmately, it's the glut of cash out there (IMHO) that is going to need to resolve itself before inflation gets back to a normal level.
- guiriduro 4y agoBut it does argue to permit the current tighter fiscal and monetary position to work as it appears to be doing, perhaps too well/quickly, rather than tightening more out of a dangerous over-abundance of caution.
- nine_zeros 4y agoLikewise, it gives the FED a chance to say that they'll only raise rates by 50% next time and maybe only 25% in January. Then they can keep high interest rates for a long time while layoffs continue to cause demand destruction.
- richiebful1 4y agoFYI, 50 basis points is a 0.5 percentage point increase, not 50%
- danuker 4y agoWhether it's through consumer price inflation or bond devaluation, retirees are affected by the economy. There is no instrument or policy isolating them from it. The best you can do is diversify.
- PopAlongKid 4y ago>anyone you know on a fixed income what this is doing to their retirement I don't know any retireees on a fixed income. They all get Social Security, which is not fixed. And if they have any signifcant savings, those interest rates are also not fixed, and have been rising a lot recently (recently advertised CD rates at 3-4% are common where I live).
- InTheArena 4y agoFixed is too wide of a term, but there are still people like my grandmother, who is in her 90s, as well as my parents, who have seen huge drops in the ability for their savings to pay for their retirement.
- happyopossum 4y ago> They all get Social Security, which is not fixed It’s been fixed since the last cost of living adjustment almost a year ago. Trailing adjustments really hurt when inflation rises this fast.
- FollowingTheDao 4y agoI agree. And buy the 10 Year Bond today, its at a great discount!
- BuyMyBitcoins 4y agoI feel like a .2 percentage point drop is near imperceptible and something easily subject to reversal. I don’t think we’re anywhere near an actual slowdown to inflation yet.
- SantalBlush 4y agoFor those who were wondering if we would officially be in a recession after November 8 elections, the answer is still "no".
- InTheArena 4y agoIt will take a quarter, but given the massive layoffs occurring now, the projections of early next year are looking spot on. Inflation is a different problem.
- SantalBlush 4y agoThe argument being repeated here on HN wasn't that recession might happen in the future (which would be a true statement); the argument was that we've been in a recession since summer, but due to government propaganda and a media conspiracy, it was swept under the rug (which was false).
- juve1996 4y agoYea just like "COVID" would go away when Biden became president. You just have to roll your eyes at these people. They're too far gone now.
- mi_lk 4y ago> the projections of early next year where do you see that projection?
- InTheArena 4y agohttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-ceo-says-reasonable-chance-us-recession-2023-2022-10-18/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-ceo-says-reasonab... https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/risk-of-global-recession-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/r... https://abc11.com/recession-prediction-2023-imf-world-economic-outlook/12316495/ https://abc11.com/recession-prediction-2023-imf-world-econom... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/bank-of-england-uk-faces-longest-ever-recession.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/bank-of-england-uk-faces-lon...
- miked85 4y ago
- bamboozled 4y agoWhy is this downvoted ?
- boc 4y agoBecause it’s antisocial behavior? Reflexively casting doubt (without a counter-argument) on a number that the BLS has been publishing for decades using a transparent methodology isn’t helpful. This number isn’t the “how much am I spending on groceries” number, it’s a much larger snapshot of the price levels across multiple industries. Nobody thinks it’s perfect, but it’s consistent. You might not believe it, but Wall Street moves billions based on it. That’s ultimately the greatest vote of trust. If you think it’s wrong, you can put your money where your mouth is and trade against the consensus. That’s the beauty of the free market.
- miked85 4y agoI don't think suggesting that governments put out economic numbers which make them look better is "antisocial behavior".
- SantalBlush 4y agoStatistical methodologies are developed and executed by bureaucrats and academics, not politicians. What most people fail to recognize is that the vast majority of US government employees perform their jobs across many administrations with consistency. They are very much working for the government, and not their favorite politicians.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- jeffbee 4y agoYou only believe in gas prices at the pump? In that case, your inflation rate has been zero over the past 14 years. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=e...
- namelessoracle 4y ago
- transcriptase 4y agoSo you’re saying you don’t buy a new TV every time you get groceries?
- substation13 4y agoEven if you did, the stats are suspect. They include the screen area of the TV in the calculation, so TVs are getting better for the price, but not cheaper to the extent being suggested.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- daniel-cussen 4y ago
- tokai 4y agoI have seen products in the stores I use that have gone down again. Many stores and producers definitely used this inflation to hike their prices way up. How many industries are reporting record revenue underscores this further.
- matwood 4y agoI've been seeing this as well with specials. At the worst point is was buy 2 get 1. Now it's back to buy 2 get 2. I expect to see by 2 get 3 soon.
- mytailorisrich 4y agoInflation and inflation for staple items are obviously not the same thing and thus obviously do not yield the same numbers. People and businesses buy much more than staple items and so the typical basket of goods and services used to calculate the official inflation number includes many more things.
- newaccount2021 4y ago
- lazar_guz_kemp 4y agoInflation was 0.4% month-over-month. This is the same rate we saw las month.
- keewee7 4y agoIt's a bit higher in Denmark and I have a little too much stored as fiat in the bank. What is a safe asset to store value while inflation is >10% in a developed country?
- akmarinov 4y agoReal estate probably for medium term, stocks for long term.
- nemo44x 4y agoDo you have inflation protected bonds? In the USA you can buy I-Bonds (max $10k/year per person) that pay interest at the current inflation rate. But what is considered “safe” really has a lot to do with your timeline. How soon do you want to access the money? If it’s in tears then index funds are likely a good buy today.
- coffeebeqn 4y agoThere are also TIPS which don’t pay as well but you get back 80-90% of inflation as a dividend
- 988747 4y agoPoland offers something similar, but with a twist. On the plus side, the amount you can buy is unlimited. However, interest rate is fixed in the first year, at 7% (which is a far cry from 17.9% inflation). From the year two the interest rate is inflation rate + 1% premium. You can buy either 4 or 10 year bonds.
- nemo44x 4y agoInflation + 1% beat a lot of bonds the last decade to be sure.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- andy_ppp 4y ago
- fasteddie31003 4y agoRANT: This inflation and coming recession is entirely on the hands of the current leadership in the Fed and Treasury. Their super-low interest rates over the years are coming full circle. We live in a centrally planned economy. My advice to the Fed is to set the Fed Funds Rate to equal inflation! This will stop the wild swings in the economy and keep inflation in check. When the Fed Funds Rate is lower than inflation there is an arbitrage opportunity for anyone who has access to this money to invest it broadly into the economy and get a positive return. I actually think this is a huge source of income inequality because only the most wealthy have access to this arbitrage opportunity, but that is another rant.
- throwingrocks 4y agoYeah....and the inflation we're seeing elsewhere in the world is just a coincidence.
- coffeebeqn 4y agoEU had negative interest rates for a decade. Low interest rates during the good times is definitely a mistake You end up paying for eventually
- kmonsen 4y agoThat’s the thing that makes me question the whole Keynesian/ interest rate setting problem, you cannot know if you are living in good times are bad times. That requires knowledge of the future. Let’s say all of this is due to the war in Russia, or in some alternate reality China carpet bombs Taiwan, if you thought you were living in bad times before the event you are in for a rude awakening. It’s the same as black swans and cannot really work over time.
- coffeebeqn 4y agoYou know if unemployment is low and the economy is having solid growth at the time.
- nemo44x 4y agoThis is especially good since it was a year ago we started to notice inflation rising rapidly. If this print was higher than expected it would have indicated something really bad. With this print we could be on the path to healthier inflation in the coming year.
- nivenkos 4y agoThe US has it easy, since the inflation was largely caused by lockdown stimulus, and also benefits from being the global reserve currency so it can leverage cheap imports as the interest rate rises increase the value of USD. I wouldn't be surprised if it's better in a few months, especially with the growing protectionism in the anti-inflation act, etc. and acts against Chinese competition, etc. keeping more industry in the US.
- phpisthebest 4y agoThere was no Anti-Inflation Act, there was a spending... SPENDING bill they claimed would lower inflation because it also included a very limited amount of deficit reduction which 1 week later they had spent like 3 times on new programs including the Student Loan Cancellation which reversed any inflation reduction the original bill could have had (which was nill in the first place)
- ceejayoz 4y agoHow did student loan cancellation reverse inflation reduction when it's on hold due to legal challenges? No one has received a penny.
- koolba 4y ago> No one has received a penny. The Biden administration mailed student loan checks to people (conveniently set up to arrive just before the most recent midterm): https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/student-loan-refund-checks-qualify https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/student-loan-re... The checks are "rebates" for people who paid their student loans during the moratorium. The idea is to reimburse those people and add back their student loan debt so they can claim the maximum $10K / $20K amount of the forgiveness program. It's hard to argue that's not inflationary.
- ceejayoz 4y agoThat's not the student loan cancellation program. Those are people who overpaid during the pause in payments. It's as inflationary as getting a tax refund in April.
- lunaru 4y agoIt bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down （that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achieve because Sept 21 to Oct 21 had a bigger month over month jump. The right way to interpret this number is that high prices have plateaued a bit. Yes that means your groceries are going to be x% higher than in 2020. Short of deflation, they always will be.
- Victerius 4y agoFor the mathematically inclined among us, dp/dt is still positive. It's d^2p/dt^2 that is slightly negative.
- queuebert 4y agoAnyone who's ever had to numerically estimate second and higher derivatives from noisy data can appreciate how difficult the Fed's job is.
- compumike 4y agoFor the mathematically inclined, here is a graph of 1/p over the past year: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/USDOLLAR?start=2021-11-10&end=2022-11-10 https://totalrealreturns.com/s/USDOLLAR?start=2021-11-10&end... or over a longer time period: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/USDOLLAR https://totalrealreturns.com/s/USDOLLAR (this site is my side project) If "p" is the relative price level index (CPI-U in this case), then "1/p" represents the relative purchasing power of a single dollar over time -- explained on homepage in more detail.
- redox99 4y agoNot really. It means CPI_oct22 - CPI_oct21 < CPI_sep22 - CPI_sep21 d^2p/dt^2 isn't necessarily negative.
- 4y ago
- isusmelj 4y agoThe way I read it the price of things like eggs increased by 43% (on table 6 which is seasonally adjusted it's still 10%)? Does anyone know why?
- jeffbee 4y agoLack of low-wage immigrant labor to fill farm jobs. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/07/28/a-shortfall-in-immigration-has-become-an-economic-problem-for-america https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/07/28/a-shortfa...
- mrguyorama 4y agoOur local egg prices in Maine doubled, supposedly because we got hit bad with bird flu and had to cull a lot.
- pmoriarty 4y agoI was just reading "Ray Dalio on the Downturn: 'There's a Lot More to Come'"[1], which said: Inflation in the United States has risen 8.2 percent in the past 12 months. While the Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target is 2 percent, Dalio predicted that the central bank will go for a more realistic target of around 4.5 to 5 percent. Based on those numbers, he believes the real interest rate could land in between 4.5 percent and 6 percent. “Six starts to break things pretty bad,” Dalio said. “The vicinity of 4.5 and 6 may be the number in terms of cracking the thing.” [1] - https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b20hpgzhxph5h5/Ray-Dalio-on-the-Downturn-There-s-a-Lot-More-to-Come https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b20hpgzhxph5h5...
- photochemsyn 4y agoIsolated data points aren't really worth analyzing - something like a running 6-month average makes more sense. See this 2009 blog post on how to inflation-adjust current prices/revenues to those from decades before: > "For this exercise, we’ll use the annual average CPI-U values for 1973 (44.4) and 2008 (215.303). Because the CPI-U includes relatively volatile items such as food and fuel, I tend to avoid the monthly values with their fluctuations. If you want to adjust to the most recent data available, consider averaging the most recent six months of CPI-U values." https://anthonydebarros.com/2009/11/01/adjusting-for-inflation-guide/ https://anthonydebarros.com/2009/11/01/adjusting-for-inflati... This is similar to analyzing climate trends, where you really want to look at 5-year running averages (possibly 10-year). Generally, 'response time of the system to forcing' is what matters, in both cases.
- abeppu 4y ago> Isolated data points aren't really worth analyzing - something like a running 6-month average makes more sense Isn't the YoY inflation definitionally equivalent with running (geometric) mean of the past 12 (annualized) monthly increases?
- seydor 4y agoSo, when will the US Fed announce its own layoffs? They need to contribute to bringing down inflation.
- queuebert 4y agoLies, damned lies, and statistics.
- hnburnsy 4y agoAnyone notice that brand name soda (looking at you Coke) has increased almost 100% while the generic/house brand has had slight increases. I feel like Coke is testing the pricing limits of its customers especially with the smaller packaging and these prices will not come back down.
- bombcar 4y agoPrices around here have stayed the same or gone up a bit, but the sales have dried up. You could almost always get Coke on sale at the grocery store for half the "list price" now that's much rarer.
- gre 4y agoWhat is inflation if not the capitalists raising prices?
- theyeenzbeanz 4y agoA 20oz bottle is easily 2.29 now compared to roughly 1.79 not long ago.
- jackcviers3 4y agoI remember when it was $1 for almost 7 years, then went to $1.49. It hurt because now you had to feed 2 bills into machines that could barely take 1 reliably, and were always out of change. How that didn't drive the price back down to $1 or up to $2 I'll never understand. It had to have increased labor on the parts of the vendors and decreased demand for the vendors at the same time. That's about the time I started just stocking a 6 pack or 2 liter (depending on which was cheaper per oz) in the fridge for the week, too, which drops the unit price.it also decreased the total volume of soft drinks that I bought. I don't know how soft drinks can continue to increase in prices under that dynamic. My guess is that the majority of people just buy it and don't notice anything that costs less than $10 anymore, so convenience stores can get away with movie theater prices as long as they don't cross that trivial threshold. People will pay for convenience under $10.
- kennend3 4y ago
- Zigurd 4y agoSeveral commenters have provided various reasons year-over-year numbers are, to put it mildly, difficult to interpret. Another reason is that a major war in Europe started within this year, adding to the difficulty of Y0Y comparisons. The principal weapon deployed against the aggressor is economic warfare to collapse Russia's economy. That has only recently made an impact that can't be denied in Russia. Meanwhile, the war has directly cut food exports from Ukraine and both directly and indirectly disrupted food and fossil fuel markets in many regions, mostly toward higher costs and trade substitutions that also mostly lead to higher costs. Interest rate rises are probably needed but the causes of inflation are mostly outside central bankers' control.
- flavius29663 4y agoYou can't blame US inflation on the Russia war, this is a DNC misdirection. For the US at least, it should be a minor factor. The US were trading very little with Russia to begin with, even before the war. Russia's economy before the war was still smaller than California, New York or Texas. Waging economic warfare on a medium economy like that should not wreak the US, Europe or the World economies.
- richiebful1 4y agoAgreed with one caveat: energy. Some countries in Europe depend on Russian gas for a significant percentage of their energy. Europe is desperate for LNG and is outbidding other gas importing nations, driving up prices.
- happyopossum 4y agoYet natural gas prices here in the US slumped last month…
- dalyons 4y agoEnergy and food prices are global, regardless of who trades with who. Try to be less nakedly partisan.
- francisofascii 4y agoAnyone know of a publicly available data of grocery prices for staple products month over month? I really wish I would have saved my grocery receipts over the past five years. Rather than rely on my perceptions.
- nonameiguess 4y agoIf you buy from Whole Foods and have Amazon Prime, your receipts are in your order history forever. It's actually been informative, because amidst all of the breathlessness from the past two years, every time I have bothered to check, most of the prices I'm paying haven't gone up at all or have gone up a tiny bit. I buy almost all raw ingredients and cook from scratch, which maybe just works differently than processed goods sold by Coca Cola and what not, or Whole Foods was just so overpriced to begin with that they didn't bother raising. My grocery bills overall have definitely gone up, but that's because I stopped eating out and buy a lot more groceries.
- shrimp_emoji 4y ago>My grocery bills overall have definitely gone up, but that's because I stopped eating out and buy a lot more groceries. Wouldn't this make your bills go down?
- mrguyorama 4y agoNot if you budgeted takeout in a separate category.
- nobody9999 4y ago>>My grocery bills overall have definitely gone up, but that's because I stopped eating out and buy a lot more groceries. >Wouldn't this make your bills go down? I'd imagine that when GP "eats out," they don't do so at the grocery store/supermarket. I know I don't. Usually I'll go to a restaurant. Which may make my overall food bills go up, but it certainly doesn't increase my grocery bills.
- orangepurple 4y ago
- mikeyouse 4y ago
- MagnumOpus 4y agoShadowstats is bullshit for a number of reasons - you can read up on most of them on the official articles and publications and justifications on the BLS website -- which are generally written by statisticians with maths or econ PhDs with no vested political interest, unlike Shadowstats which is written by an MBA who needs to sell a newsletter. But you can very easily debunk Shadowstats by just averaging the ridiculous CPI inflation number postulated by the Shadowstats dude over 2/3/4 decades, and put that compounded rate of 8% into a calculator and multiply it with a wage from 1990 or 2000 or whenever... And see that consumer goods/services can't have increased by that much or otherwise everyone would be destitute...
- hatware 4y ago
- somuchfordonor 4y ago
- hatware 4y agoNotice that they attacked the source, rather than addressed the argument. Inflation is definitely higher than 7.7%. Seems to me there's a lot more energy going into that propaganda wave than anything else.
- staticman2 4y agoI don't think learning about the world is about listening to whomever is best at arguing, exactly.
- willhinsa 4y agolol
- passwordoops 4y agoFunny how markets and analysts lose their minds when the numbers don't match exactly the predicted when there are no error bars associated to either the estimate or the value. Coming under or over is a lot different when we're talking +/- 0.05 vs. 0.5... And yes, I tried checking. The Fed does put out their data, but nary a precision factor to be found
- whimsicalism 4y agoMy guess is that many of the actors in the market have their own error bounds.
- ChicagoBoy11 4y agoI'm always reminded of economists wonderful sense of humor whenever I start seeing decimal points on some of these forecasts!
- yCombLinks 4y agoIt wouldn't matter at all if the fed didn't put in a prediction. You can calculate what inflation level the market is predicting by looking at inflation swaps. When the official rates come out the market reacts to divergence from that prediction.
- techlover14159 4y agoIs the pricing data for inflation swaps publicly available?
- wkrsz 4y agoWhy is this causing USD/EUR exchange rate to fall? And in general USD to lose value compared to other currencies. My guess is that expectation of higher inflation was combined with expectation of further interest rate increases to combat it. Interest rate increases generally make currency more attractive for investments from abroad, which increases exchange rate. This expectation was "priced in" current exchanged rates and now the market has corrected.
- benjaminwootton 4y agoThat’s exactly why. It means US interest rates will perhaps not peak as high.
- sz4kerto 4y agoYou're correct, that's why.
- noasaservice 4y agoIt's not "Inflation". It's straight up wage theft by the rich. They're jacking up prices and blaming (hand-wave) Inflation to extract more profit. And no, workers wages being bumped up to $15/hr is no excuse. Look no further than the profits. ------------------ "Workers around the world: lost $3.7 trillion in the pandemic Billionaires around the world: gained $3.9 trillion in the pandemic It's the biggest one-year wealth transfer in history, yet somehow barely anyone is talking about it." https://twitter.com/danpriceseattle/status/1375189204125114371?lang=en https://twitter.com/danpriceseattle/status/13751892041251143... ------------------ Iron Mountain CEO says he's been 'praying for inflation' because it means he can raise prices https://www.businessinsider.com/ceo-praying-for-inflation-raise-prices-boosts-profits-interest-rates-2022-9 https://www.businessinsider.com/ceo-praying-for-inflation-ra... ------------------ Leading grocery chains such as Kroger (KR) and Alberstons have said in recent days that they expect to benefit from rising prices. Sales boomed at these chains and other grocers during the early stages of the pandemic, but have slowed down in recent months as more people return to eating meals out. “Our business operates the best when inflation is about 3% to 4%,” Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen said on an earnings call with analysts Thursday. “A little bit of inflation is always good in our business.” https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/18/business/grocery-store-inflation-kroger-albertsons/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/18/business/grocery-store-inflat...
- jdlyga 4y ago"the rate of increase of inflation is decreasing"
- javanissen 4y agoNot sure if this is quoting that economist from the 70s, but in this case it’s inflation that’s decreasing. We’re still just talking about the second derivative of prices, not the third!
- hnthrowaway0315 4y agoThe whole "expected" thing is sketchy for me. I probably know nothing but why is 7.9% expected, not say 7.5% expected? I think a lot of manipulation of those expectations can be done for "friends in IB".
- curiousllama 4y agoExpected is just a survey of those “friends in IB” - it’s just a benchmark for the media to explain if things are surprising. Anyone making impactful decisions based on expectations should not be making impactful decisions.
- ionwake 4y agoIn many European countries inflation is at 15% If it reaches 20% that means every 3.5 years your cash reserve loses half its value Mean someone correct me if I’m wrong I think that is astounding
- hankchinaski 4y agoassuming that the inflation rate remains the same for the next 3.5 years. Which seems unlikely
- kshacker 4y agoIt appears to be more like tectonic plates shifting. Sometimes they shift a bit, a few aftershocks and pretty much back to normal order. But sometimes it kills a few hundred thousand, changes the landscape that even after the aftershocks subside, it leaves behind quite a different world. 20% loss against dollar for 2 years without reversion will end up creating quite a different world.
- aeternum 4y agoI think people are underestimating how much the cost of energy impacts inflation. It used to be primarily labor costs, and labor/wages is still a major part. However with automation some labor is being replaced by automation and thus converts what used to be labor cost to energy cost. European countries are not in great shape from an energy POV.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y agoAnd yet solar radiation falling on just 1% of Spain, Italy, & Greece - even in the Winter - can power >50% of Europe (and >100% in the Summer). Europe already gets ~12% of its energy from Nuclear, ~5% from hydro. Solar energy will not be a problem in the future - neither will sourcing the remaining 33% of energy from other renewables, nuclear, and fossil fuels.
- rank0 4y ago
- mooneater 4y agoDoes anyone actually think this number is accurate to a decimal place?
- sidewndr46 4y agoWho set the expectation of 7.9%? I've never expected my money to lose value every month.
- sillysaurusx 4y agoThe fed.
- meragrin_ 4y agoSo how much of this is due to lower than normal heating costs last month? Utility (piped) gas service -4.6% I used the A/C more than heat last month since temps have been quite a bit higher than normal. Just using A/C in October is pretty abnormal for me.
- nightski 4y agoLooking at the macro picture is so misleading. The only categories that are really down are natural gas, used cars & trucks, and apparel. Everything else is up but it is being masked by the huge drop in natural gas prices (which is due to the situation in Europe).
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- advisedwang 4y agoWeird that gas prices dropped, I would have thought they'd be up. Any insight?
- nightski 4y agoFrom what I understand there was a lot of fear due to the conflict this summer. So Europe bought a ton of overseas liquefied natural gas and stocked up as much as possible. So much so there are tankers sitting in the ocean being used as temporary storage. However currently temperatures are moderate and demand is pretty low. There's optimism for a mild winter and users have done a good job of reducing demand. So at the moment there's a situation where Europe has too much gas in anticipation of future bad things which is driving a slump in prices. This will probably change.
- slaymaker1907 4y agoMoM inflation is still unfortunately 0.4% which is about 5% annualized. I think it's unfortunate that reporting focuses around yearly inflation which isn't really useful for talking about inflation in the moment.
- roflyear 4y ago5% is not that much higher than historic averages. 1990 had 5.4% inflation, and 2008 close to 4%.
- ethagknight 4y agoWorse than 2008, got it.
- roflyear 4y agoI am not sure that we can predict how bad a recession will be based on inflation.
- qclibre22 4y agoSome claim you can: "The historical evidence indicates that when inflation is as high as it is today, and the unemployment rate is as low as it is today, the probability of a recession over the next one and two years is extraordinarily high" source: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/files/Recession_blog.pdf https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcb...
- roflyear 4y agoProbability of recession, but severity?
- smileysteve 4y agoWell, yes, and no, the crash of 2008 caused deflationary pressure, and below [Federal Reserve] (annualized average) target inflation until 2020.
- rufusroflpunch 4y agoDemand destruction is setting in.
- dotnet00 4y agoReminds me of Nixon's "the rate of increase of inflation is going down" comment and the associated quip that it was "the first time a sitting president used the third derivative to advance his case for reelection."
- calgarymicro 4y agoThis isn't that. The rate of inflation is going down, not the rate of increase of inflation. 8.2% in September, 7.7% now. The second derivative of prices, not the third.
- dotnet00 4y agoI'm aware of that, it just reminded me of that incident and I thought others would find it funny too is all.
- qclibre22 4y agoWhich is interesting because Nixon pressured official to make "cheap money" : https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-gre...
- 5350-uiop-1130 4y ago0.2% less than expected and s&p pumps 5%. f* this timeline.
- Kukumber 4y agoAt what cost? "allies" as collateral damage, the US seems to be playing the solo game, not sure if that's gonna serve them well when they'll decide to go frontal with China, since their "allies" won't be able to be used as proxy anymore, too weak and no morale The US announces retreat
- paxys 4y agoSeems like these days there are more people who want the economy to fail just to be able to make a point about the political party they support. I'm personally ecstatic that inflation seems to be softening. It's likely that there will be another couple interest rate hikes regardless, but there does seem to be a "back to normal" in the (distant) horizon somewhere.
- colechristensen 4y agoReporting yearly inflation every month is... confusing at best.
- chiefalchemist 4y agoInflation in and of itself isn't the problem per se. It's income(s) being able to keep pace, or more often than not keep pace. Working citizens - as well as those on public assistance? - have been losing ground to inflation for decades. The bottom line: In the eyes of bread winners this is old news, and does nothing (again) to mitigate their discomfort and pain. From a sociopolitical POV this is not sustainable.
- register 4y agoSo a mere 0,2% delta led to a 6,4% increase in the Nasdaq. I really can't understand...
- thrownaway561 4y agoWhat's sad is that prices will never be where they were ever. I keep getting slammed by family members telling me to "make sure you vote" cause they feel that it's all a single party's fault that we are in this mess and only the other party can fix it, when sadly, it's the world we live in now. Houses will always be insanely priced now and making 100K is like make 50K.
- epinephrinios 4y agohttps://app.truflation.com/ https://app.truflation.com/ Worth a look.
- mbar84 4y agoTime to purchasing power halving: 9.4 Years