45 ms·

Twitter Deal Temporarily on Hold

• chewbacha 4y ago
  Could it have to do with the recent stock/crypto slump? Perhaps he doesn’t have the cash any more because his assets have rapidly diminished in value since he begun the take over. It’s not clear to me why the calculation over bots and spam would threaten the deal.
• togaen 4y ago
  Looks like someone got in over his head and is looking for an excuse to back out of the deal.
• Mindwipe 4y ago
  Elon found his out then when he realised this deal was insane.
• lvl102 4y ago
  Elon backing out because he realized he will lose a lot of money on this because his TSLA shares are also plunging as a _direct_ result of his actions.
  • jamesredd 4y ago
    The whole stock market is plunging, is this also a “_direct_ result of his actions”?
    • fxtentacle 4y ago
      Some people seem to think that Elon == "The Market". I wouldn't be surprised if you'd get a "Yes!" as the answer.
      • FabHK 4y ago
        Some other people seem to think that the market is crashing because crypto. What happened to good old fundamentals... earnings and rates? Sigh.
        • eimrine 4y ago
          AFAIK crypto is following the regular markets. As a crypto fanboy I do not see a problem on the crypto territory.
          • can16358p 4y ago
            Other than Luna perhaps, which shook the trust in stablecoins. If crypto market didn't go down significantly, Luna would have still been probably up and stable. But one might also argue that what happened to Luna now might have prevented a catastrophe MUCH bigger in the future though.
    • str3wer 4y ago
      tesla stocks are crashing way more than all the other stocks tho
      • shytey 4y ago
        This isn't true
        • cowsandmilk 4y ago
          S&P 500 down 18% from 52 Week High Vanguard total stock market down 20% from 52 week high Tesla down 40% from 52 week high Sure seems true that it has crashed more than the stock market in general. And guess what, on news that he might pull out of the twitter deal, TSLA up 6% in pre-market trading at the moment...
          • dubcanada 4y ago
            Yes that's correct, on average TSLA is down more then SPX. But you cannot compare a index to a single stock. Since you'll have stocks that are also up. Compared to the other leaders weight wise in the SP500 (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, etc) TSLA is down about the same.
            • smrtinsert 4y ago
              No, looks more like 20-25% for the others vs 40% for tesla.
      • hef19898 4y ago
        Crazy theory: Tesla stock is crashing, Musk used hos Tesla stock in his financing of the Twotter acquisition (security against loans and what not) and cannot secure the funding now. Having a 1 billion "fine" to pay if the deal falls through, he is now looking for an easy way out, hence trying to find something "material" in Twitters numbers.
      • dubcanada 4y ago
        That is completely incorrect. TSLA is holding up quite well. Take a look at SHOP for example. Nov last year it was $1700 now it's $350. TSLA was $1200 and now it's $750. It's holding up really well compared to some others.
    • throwmeariver1 4y ago
  • sschueller 4y ago
    "_direct_", Tesla is way overvalued and we all know it. Where is the cybertruck, roadster, semi and FSD? All promised years ago and the only real progress seems to be on a nutured cybertruck.
    • lvl102 4y ago
      It’s direct because (1) he is selling and collateralizing his shares, and (2) he is also taking on a role to overhaul Twitter that’s going to take time away from Tesla.
• mikkergp 4y ago
  Did Twitter stock price just drop 20%?
• deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
• koolba 4y ago
  Which direction of this is meant to be the “better”? Is it too high and it’s not worth what they say? Or is it too low and there’s not much room for improvement through better tools to remove them?
• petesergeant 4y ago
  I'd like Bezos to buy it and then stay out of it (editorially) like he did WashPo
  • cdot2 4y ago
    I hope everyone gets that this is a joke
    • hef19898 4y ago
      I'm still waiting for proof that Bezo's is inluencing WP's editors.
      • hnhg 4y ago
        It seems to be a position of faith either way. It depends on your world outlook (aka priors).
  • deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  • LeicaLatte 4y ago
    All tweets in STAR answer format only
  • smrtinsert 4y ago
    Bezos is clearly the smarter oligarch. He just wanted to buy an outlet on the cheap (several hundred million or so?) just to soften the bad press but generally stay out of it.
    • BigJ1211 4y ago
      I really dislike using the phrasing oligarch, when you can compare it to actual oligarchs. People like putin and his close ‘friends’ who use and force economic downturns so they can buy up national companies and markets so they own most of it. Musk/Bezos can’t ring up Biden and develop a scheme with him (or orchestrated by him) to seize more of the market and dictate politics. They have to use more subtle means. This doesn’t mean that they have no sway, or that they’re not far more powerful than the average citizen. They just aren’t buddies with a dictator that enriches himself and them.
• pdevr 4y ago
  >>Twitter deal temporarily on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users He is asking for proof that spam and fake accounts are less than 5% of total users. He obviously believes the number is much higher[1]. This does not seem to be a deal killer - he is just calling their bluff[2]. Maybe they are right. Maybe not. We will see. Interesting times! [1] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215066550116354 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215066550116354 [2] https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-estimates-spam-fake-accounts-represent-less-than-5-users-filing-2022-05-02/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-estimates-spam-fa...
  • onion2k 4y ago
    This does not seem to be a deal killer - he is just calling their bluff What does he gain by calling their bluff?
    • rendall 4y ago
      Maybe negotiating tactic?
    • RF_Savage 4y ago
      Parhaps a lower price?
    • ceejayoz 4y ago
      Getting out of the deal after the recent stock slump? Without the $1B penalty fee?
    • basisword 4y ago
      Reduction in price.
    • raverbashing 4y ago
      I'm always amazed when that kind of question pops up. Because it shows how knowledge of basic business practices is less circulated. If you're selling me a house and saying it's one size but in practice it's another you bet I'm taking it up with you! I can be happy to buy it as is (depending on the case) but this says a lot about the seller.
• encryptluks2 4y ago
  LOL... I called this on here a while back while all the Elon worshipers told me how Elon was a great man that would fix Twitter and bring about world peace.
  • Inu 4y ago
    Have you read the article?
    • rvz 4y ago
      I really hope you have read the guidelines: [0] > Please don't comment on whether someone read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that." [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
      • Inu 4y ago
        Okay, sorry, it's just that it's not nearly as unambigious as they claim. It could be an exit move, it could also be Musk trying to renegotiate the price. Also, he just tweeted: "Still committed to acquisition." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1525080945274998785 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1525080945274998785
        • encryptluks2 4y ago
          The statements are contradicting. You don't announce that a deal is on hold unless you're questioning whether you're committed. That is like telling your fiance the wedding is on hold. I'm hopeful just the tweet saying the deal was on hold will be considered a violation of the agreement as it will clearly affect the stock price.
          • mirceal 4y ago
            This is classic Musk playing 5D chess
• t0mas88 4y ago
  Many people predicted a couple of weeks ago he would wiggle out...
  • vmception 4y ago
    The implied volatility of those twitter option remained at 99% 66% across expirations People were betting
  • usrn 4y ago
    I still have my puts.
  • TheHypnotist 4y ago
    The whole thing was a pump and dump. He sold billions in shares weeks ago. https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sells-billions-of-dollars-in-tesla-stock-11651197227 https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sells-billions-of-dol...
    • zydex 4y ago
      In order to fund the Twitter deal. They were Tesla not Twitter shares.
      • outworlder 4y ago
        Yeap. Sell high, TSLA tank, buy low. Pump and dump by definition.
      • deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
• bigbillheck 4y ago
  The odds have always been good for the 'Musk talks big, doesn't follow through' outcome.
• fredgrott 4y ago
  most of the sane one's here called his including me. Tis is a way for Elon to back out by saving face since he did not notify Twitter upon the 9% threshold which would oopne himself to lawsuits from investors.
• ryzvonusef 4y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-estimates-spam-fake-accounts-represent-less-than-5-users-filing-2022-05-02/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-estimates-spam-fa... >Twitter Inc(TWTR.N)estimated in a filing on Monday that false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of its monetizable daily active users during the first quarter. >The social media company had 229 million users who were served advertising in the first quarter. read more
  • conradfr 4y ago
    Funnily enough, Elon Musk's tweet does not mention "monetizable".
    • WJW 4y ago
      It seems evident that a bot user is almost never monetizable, so you'd think the amount of bots in Twitters monetizable user base would be very close to zero even if the total amount of bot users is 90% of the total user base.
      • eimrine 4y ago
        Why do you think a bot is not monetizable? What if some payed by Putin pro-Russian trashtalker (bot by definition) without Adblock installed (unlike most of decent users who are not happy to see some ads in the social network they love) - who is monetizable and who is not in this case?
        • XorNot 4y ago
          Because they devalue your ad business. Your views don't lead to enough click-throughs which don't lead to conversions for the buyer. Even if you imagine that the paid sockpuppet operator might be interested in the ads, their whole business is representing themselves as being from a country they're not so the targeting is all wrong.
      • SpicyLemonZest 4y ago
• christkv 4y ago
  He can back out let the market slaughter twitter and buy it for a massive discount right down the road.
  • hef19898 4y ago
    Wouldn't be the first time Musk is manipulating stock prices with a tweet.
    • christkv 4y ago
      Considering the blood bath in tech stock I recon is actually more of a case of him badly timing the bid. Had he waited a couple of weeks more he could have picked it up for 1/2. The price will plunge today. My bet is 25% or more.
      • hef19898 4y ago
        Just looked it up, the last days hit my last AMZN shares pretty hard... Bad timing indeed!
• findthewords 4y ago
  Hypothesis: The deal will go through once his stock price goes back up - if this were to occur it would be strong circumstantial evidence to suspect he is timing the market.
• Bubble_Pop_22 4y ago
  • emptysongglass 4y ago
    > If you live in SF you know how normal people felt under China's Mao. This is truly the heights of false equivalence no matter what you actually think of Elon Musk. The Great Leap under Mao took the lives of between 15 and 55 million people. There is no comparison and I find it frankly offensive that we think it's OK as a society to throw these kinds of comparisons around, casually, in any sincerity.
    • Bubble_Pop_22 4y ago
      • ceejayoz 4y ago
        Burning some money is not an “honest comparison” to killing tens of millions of people, no.
        • Bubble_Pop_22 4y ago
  • kragen 4y ago
    Quite aside from the fact that things like mass famine and nationwide mob violence can affect people's emotions sometimes, and Mao had those and Elon didn't, I don't recall ever seeing portraits of Elon Musk being emblazoned all over San Francisco, or kids all coming home from school with Musk's Little Red Book.
    • TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
      Elon's just getting started in politics. The presidential run won't happen for another couple of cycles. Also: https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=musk+poster&source=lnms&tbm=isch https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=musk+poster&source=lnms&tb...
• soumyadeb 4y ago
  The two twitter exec firings yesterday must be related to this. Musk must have asked for proof which the product team could not produce.
  • rendall 4y ago
    What is your thinking behind "must be"?
    • moralestapia 4y ago
      Those exits were not planned, one guy was even on parental leave, so it was definitely a rushed thing. That always stinks when an acquisition is taking place.
    • soumyadeb 4y ago
      One person (their VP Product) was on paternity. You don't fire people like that unless they did something very very wrong. Misrepresenting spam/bot accounts would fall under that bucket. If the number of spam accounts is like 20% (instead of 5%), not only would the deal fall through, other shareholders would sue twitter. Not sure this misrepresentation would count as financial misrepresentation (which results in jail etc under Sarbanes-Oxley)
      • muglug 4y ago
        > You don't fire people like that unless they did something very very wrong. If he's on paternity leave he won't have been responsible for a number that came out last week.
        • soumyadeb 4y ago
          Well, he is still responsible for the process through which the number was derived (assuming the process was put in place by him).
        • raizer88 4y ago
          Pretty sure twitter have a dashboard with these numbers, and don't do it manually. So if this dashboard makes data up, I'm pretty sure VP of Product's head is on the table, since it's a really sensitive data to report wrong. And twitter firing him can be a way to protect the top exec from the SEC, blaming him for everything.
• boeingUH60 4y ago
  I used to like Elon circa 2018 up until he started acting up (pedo guy, et al), but the main thing that soured my opinion of him lies in being -- don't know if this is the right word -- unhinged. I just can never trust anything he says because he has a significant history of being indecisive and disorderly. This deal is a perfect demonstration of how I feel. What I can't really tell is if he was always like that or grew into it at one point. Also, the guy is always going to extreme lengths to seek attention, just like one certain US politician...Something turns me off from these types of people.
  • feintruled 4y ago
    I think the word that might fit better than unhinged is 'capricious' - given to sudden and unaccountable changes of mood or behaviour.
  • tjpnz 4y ago
    I just listen to the space stuff and tune everything else out.
    • ctvo 4y ago
      Same here. SpaceX does impressive work. The rest of Elon's companies? Not so much for me. He's such a polarizing figure folks can't seem to detach the worthwhile things he's done from all his other flaws. Elon isn't particularly impressive as an engineer or scientist, but incredibly impressive as a product and business person. Realize that he's a brand, and try not to fall for the marketing.
  • hartator 4y ago
    > don't know if this is the right word -- unhinged [my bad misunderstood what unhinged means.]
    • hnbad 4y ago
      I wish people would stop excusing bad behavior with "oh they're autistic". It just makes us autistic people look bad by association.
• jmyeet 4y ago
  There's a lot of talk about how Elon is weaseling out of this. That may be true but you should know something about acquisitions. Typically there is a termination or breakup fee that one side has to pay for walking away or if the deal falls through. AT&T paid billions for the failed takeover of T-Mobile [1], for example. The Musk Twitter deal has a $1 billion termination fee [2] on both sides. Now it's unclear on what conditions would trigger this exactly. In Twitter's case, it at least includes accepting another offer. On Musk's end, it includes if financing falls through. So here's the $1 billion question: what happens if (as Musk might argue) Twitter made material misrepresentations about their business, specifically to do with how many users they actually have? This might be an out for Musk or it might not. Personally I've long thought there are a huge number of fake Twitter accounts and Twitter is actively disincentivized from ever finding out if that's true or not. Put another way: they like their big numbers for active accounts, DAU and MAU. But if Twitter is found to be materially misrepresenting those numbers, they have way more serious problems than if the Musk deal falls through. They've then opened themselves up to litigation by the SEC and investors that they materially misled investors. Things could actually get really ugly for Twitter here regardless of what happens with the Musk deal. If you think about it, this could be a relatively cheap way of mortally wounding Twitter. Make a buyout offer, get access to the books, prove they're lying about DAU/MAU, walk away with no termination fee paid, watch the executive team get sued into oblivion and the company tanks. [1]: https://money.cnn.com/2011/11/24/technology/att_t-mobile_breakup_fee/index.htm https://money.cnn.com/2011/11/24/technology/att_t-mobile_bre... [2]: https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/26/elon-musks-twitter-deal-includes-a-1-billion-termination-fee-on-both-sides https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/26/elon-musks-twitter-deal-in...
  • throwmeariver1 4y ago
  • nicce 4y ago
    I am curious how they prove either of the arguments about fake accounts precisely. What is the definition of fake account and how to prove them? If they can prove some self-evident cases, it could be just the tip of the iceberg.
• _u 4y ago
  I'm having trouble understanding his reasoning. Musk refers to an article which claims that false or spam accounts represent fewer than 5% of its monetizable daily active users during the first quarter. In his Tweet, he suddenly wants to know whether spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users. Aren't these concepts (percentage of users and percentage of monetizable daily active users) something totally different?
  • kragen 4y ago
    Maybe this is performance art designed to demonstrate the menace of communication media that require you to strip out crucial qualifiers from your claims in order to fit into an artificial character size limit?
    • gerikson 4y ago
      You have 260 characters, and can create threads. I've read plenty of Twitter threads that are at least as persuasively argued as a similarly long blog post.
  • moduspol 4y ago
    Do they even define "users"? I'm a lurker on Twitter. I follow people but don't tweet. Do I count as a user? My behavior is probably difficult to discern from a bot (using a third party app). The bots everyone is concerned about are the ones tweeting, but there are probably all kinds of "legitimate" bots, like the ones that tweet when Apple pushes a software update, or something goes on sale on Steam. That 5% number may be describing the "legitimate" bots, while what everyone cares about is the illegitimate ones.
• firstSpeaker 4y ago
  I bet twitter stock price is gonna take a dive!
• fatih-erikli 4y ago
  "Spam/fake accounts do represent less than 5% of users" This claim raises lots of open questions. If they are able to determine the fake users, why they did not just delete these users? Don't they have such an spam detection and prevention process? Also I think it is a lot more than %5. Also, again, I think it is still OK only if the half percent of the users represent the real (not-spam) users. The spam users are increasing and becoming much harder to determine when the user base grows. Even if you're running a simple blog and you notice lots of spams in your comments when you get some traffic. %5 is just not a realistic value. Also lets not forget about "the paid" users. There is such a thing behind the scenes and they are not spam/fake.
  • jmalicki 4y ago
    If you can do a statistical sample of a very small number of users, say 0.1%, and do very expensive detailed investigation of them that determines 5% are fake, you can easily extrapolate that 5% to the entire userbase with small confidence bounds, but have no idea which of the rest of the users are fake.
  • tsimionescu 4y ago
    You can in principle conduct user interviews to determine the likely percentage, without having a clear way to ide tify every individual account. Similar in principle to how you conduct pre-election polls.
  • chrisweekly 4y ago
    5% of monetizable users - a crucial distinction, since it completely ignores bots which might represent 80% of the accounts while not being monetizable
• seydor 4y ago
  This is more sane than if it went through. If he really wants a microblog he can build it for $1b or buy substack. I guess we'll find out more at 6/9
• gregoriol 4y ago
  The guy has mastered the art of stock price manipulation
  • oneeyedpigeon 4y ago
    Has he really? a) it's really obvious that he's doing it — I cannot believe he hasn't fallen foul of regulators yet b) he hasn't gained anything from this particular deal yet, as far as I can tell
    • xuki 4y ago
      He used that excuse to sell 9B of Tesla stocks. It's pretty hard to justify selling that much as a CEO of the company.
      • rcMgD2BwE72F 4y ago
        $9B sounds big… until you realize it's a tiny % of his holding.
        • nowherebeen 4y ago
          It doesn't matter how tiny. 9 billion in stock market trade by management will move the market both from the amount of sell orders and from the market reaction.
        • CamperBob2 4y ago
          It also sounds big until it costs him $50 billion.
      • grumple 4y ago
        Wow. Now that you say it, that seems really obvious. He managed to do an unscheduled sale of stock at the peak of the market.
        • nowherebeen 4y ago
• RichardHeart 4y ago
  Hackernews is the best. Hates crypto check. Hates Elon check. Hates longevity check.
  • vmurthy 4y ago
    HN has its fair share of cynics. Just like in a stock market you need bulls and bears , you need people to peek behind the stories and tell whether there is substance or full of shit. It's up to us (the other readers) to be influenced or learn or tune out, isn't it? You don't buy a stock or sell one because someone yelled something, do you?
  • paulgb 4y ago
    HN prefers nuance to personality cults. When Elon does something good, he tends to get praise here; when he’s in chaotic neutral mode he gets the eye-rolls he deserves.
    • the_doctah 4y ago
      Anyone trying to stem the tide of censorship on social media platforms would be chaotic good in my book.
• ckastner 4y ago
  I strongly feel that the spammers thing is smoke and mirrors. The deal at $54.20 was maybe OK for him a month ago (it was great for Twitter because nobody else was interested at that price). Since then, Twitter reported disappointing numbers for the past quarter, and the entire market took a nose dive, with tech hit especially hard. TWTR stock price was in the mid-30s before Musk's offer. Without the offer, and with the disappointing numbers, and with the recent market development, one could reasonably assume that the stock would be below 30 today. Musk should just pay the break fee of $1bn, and renegotiate for $42.69 or whatever meme number he fancies. Why pay $42bn total for something when you can get it for $30bn.
  • nicce 4y ago
    You always need to pay much more on payouts than the current stock price. There is no chance he could buy it for $30bn. Unless history and future predictions suggests that there is no chance for stock to grow in foreseeable future.
  • zerocrates 4y ago
    Feels like you'd have to offer substantially more premium, or more breakup fee, or (probably) both, if you've intentionally broken your last deal and then you turn around and propose another. Now that's premium starting from a lower base, but... Also, it does feel a little "manipulation"-y to tank the price on news of you yourself trashing your deal, then taking advantage of that to make the same deal but cheaper? Of course any analysis is assuming Elon actually means it and didn't just tweet this as a joke or on a whim.
    • kibwen 4y ago
      > Also, it does feel a little "manipulation"-y to tank the price on news of you yourself trashing your deal, then taking advantage of that to make the same deal but cheaper? Elon Musk's past behavior has shown him to be extremely comfortable with this tactic.
  • itsoktocry 4y ago
    >Musk should just pay the break fee of $1bn, and renegotiate for $42.69 or whatever meme number he fancies. Why pay $42bn total for something when you can get it for $30bn. Perhaps because the board and shareholders will be far more inclined to reject an offer from Musk after he feigned buying it one time and backed out?
• throwaway4good 4y ago
  The whole world knows that there is more spam than 5% (depending on how you measure it). This is just a way of getting out of the deal and/or negotiating a better price; in particular now that general market valuations have changed.
• dzdt 4y ago
  Musk is already locked into the deal. If it is possible for him to back out he will have at least one billion dollars in breakup fees. [1] This could be a setup to give him an reason to cause a breakup of the deal (he can't just walk away!) but there are real money consequences. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-02/twitter-s-board-gave-up https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-02/twitte...
  • kibwen 4y ago
    Whether or not Elon Musk is worth $42 billion or $41 billion is completely immaterial to his quality of life. This is why gonzo-extreme wealth inequality ruins the power of markets: once the marginal value of a dollar falls to zero for any given actor, they can keep a market irrational indefinitely with no penalty. If you're the sort of person who wants to believe in the power of markets, then you need to make sure that every participant has actual skin in the game, which means stopping people from accumulating so much wealth that they render the market permanently irrational, and the irony is that fomenting runaway wealth inequality is a natural tendency of markets.
    • SantalBlush 4y ago
      >This is why gonzo-extreme wealth inequality ruins the power of markets: once the marginal value of a dollar falls to zero for any given actor, they can keep a market irrational indefinitely with no penalty. This is an excellent point. Our assumptions of rationality don't hold up as well with this amount of money. One billion dollars means something totally different to him than it means to the average person.
• mrtksn 4y ago
  After the market crash a day ago, there was a joke on Twitter about Musk cancelling the offer, burning a billion and buying Twitter later at a half price. Conspiracies and jokes aside, how one determines(at contractually acceptable certainty) what accounts are absolutely fake or bot account? It's not like they ticked the checkbox saying "I am a fake account". If the sellers and buyers are not on the same page here, wouldn't that drag in court for years maybe? After all, maybe Musk will actually burn a billion only to buy Twitter later at a half price or less and save $20B+. Twitter might end to be much more cheaper after a stock crash due to the bearish markets and that fake users scandal(?) that Musk exposed(?).
  • matwood 4y ago
    Except when the market as a whole goes down it impacts everyone who was bringing money to the table in this deal. I wonder if the financing he's gathered is getting nervous. It might be harder for him to raise the money again, even if the price is better.
    • mrtksn 4y ago
      Tesla stock also suffered quite a lot, AFAIK that was how Musk was going to finance the deal. That said, Tesla doesn't have "more than %5 fake users" problem that came out just as the deal was closing. I guess Musk is a luck man.
  • seydor 4y ago
    bots are not fake, they can be useful accounts. I have one that still works, another kept being taken down so i stopped reinstating it. To say that twitter is ran by schoolchildren would be understatement
  • once_inc 4y ago
    > how one determines(...) what accounts are absolutely fake Right now, Twitter's ability to ferret out fake accounts is just completely ineffective. In the communities I follow, I see literally hundreds of reply posts under each tweet of certain people, all with the same profile picture as the OP, all tweeting about giveaways. Twitter should be focussed on cleaning up their product, and one of the variables required for that is knowing what amount of users are being used to spam scam messages. The fact that they can't means twitter's development isn't prioritising it. A ballpark estimate of the order of magnitude of that figure should be possible for them if they were in any way actively trying to solve the problem, which they are obviously not doing.
• yakubin 4y ago
  > Twitter Incestimated [...] That's an unfortunate bot error from Reuters. For a moment I thought I was mistaken about what "Inc." should expand to.
• zxienin 4y ago
  is this what legally valid, openly public, stock manipulation looks like?
• anonu 4y ago
  Pretty sure the SEC is going to love this one.
• Aillustrator 4y ago
  Is there a reason that when you are not logged in, the comments below a tweet are sorted by time rather than upvotes? This makes it pretty hard (in case of a popular tweet like this one impossible) to find the more important replies.
• keiferski 4y ago
  I don’t understand how an acquisition offer that takes months to finalize doesn’t account for changes in the stock price. Is that standard practice?
  • FabHK 4y ago
    yeah, apparently. If the market collapses, or Twitter collapses due to bad earnings, that is not enough to walk away, according to Matt Levine: > Much of the negotiation in a merger agreement is over what might go wrong: How could the deal fall through, and what would happen if it does? We talked about the main issues yesterday, and let’s go through them again. > 1. Can Musk just change his mind? The short answer is no. If Musk changes his mind without a good reason, Twitter can force him to close the deal, as long as his debt financing is available. That is, if all of the conditions to closing are satisfied, and if Musk’s banks are willing to fund the $13 billion of Twitter debt and $12.5 billion of Tesla margin loans that they’ve promised, then Twitter can force Musk to put up the $21 billion of cash that he has promised and close the deal. (Section 9.9(b).) Short of that, though — short of actually forcing Musk to close the deal, which is tricky — Musk’s liability is limited to a reverse termination fee of $1 billion.[7] This is exactly what I laid out yesterday, except that I assumed the reverse termination fee would be $1,420,690,000, because Elon Musk loves meme numbers and Twitter seems willing to play along. The $1 billion breakup fee, while pretty standard for a deal of this size, is bizarre for an Elon Musk deal. Not a 420 in sight! (420 is a weed joke.) > 2. What if Twitter’s business breaks? Musk does not have to close the deal if there has been a “material adverse effect” at Twitter. (Sections 4.9 and 7.2(b).) “Material adverse effect” is defined on page 5 of the agreement and it is long. Actually the definition doesn’t say much; it just says, tautologically, that a “Material Adverse Effect” is “any change, event, effect or circumstance which, individually or in the aggregate, has resulted in or would reasonably be expected to result in a material adverse effect on the business, financial condition or results of operations” of Twitter. All the action is in the exceptions to the MAE. As I suggested yesterday, there are lots of them, and it is somewhat difficult to think of an event that would cause a material adverse effect on Twitter’s business but not be covered by an exception to the MAE. If Twitter does badly due to all sorts of general conditions (changes in law, general economic and financial conditions, pandemics, etc.), that does not count as an MAE. If Twitter fails “to meet internal, analysts’ or other earnings estimates or financial projections or forecasts for any period,” that doesn’t count as an MAE; just having bad earnings isn’t enough. And, as usual, bad effects that result from “the negotiation, execution, announcement, performance, consummation or existence of this Agreement or the transactions contemplated by this Agreement” do not count as an MAE, though here they felt it necessary to spell out “including (A) by reason of the identity of Elon Musk, Parent or any of their Affiliates or their respective financing sources, or any communication by Parent or any of its Affiliates or their respective financing sources, including regarding their plans or intentions with respect to the conduct of the business of the Company.” If Elon Musk breaks Twitter by tweeting his plans for it, he still has to buy it. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-27/bill-hwang-arrest-inside-the-vicious-cycle-of-archegos-collapse https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-27/bill-h...
• FabHK 4y ago
  The inimitable Matt Levine in his Bloomberg Money Stuff column, two days ago: > As I have said before: "Uniquely among public-company CEOs, Elon Musk has in the past pretended he was going to take a public company private with pretend financing! I am not saying that he’s joking now; I am just saying he’s the only person who has ever made this particular joke in the past." > Perhaps he has decided that the joke would be even funnier if he signed a merger agreement, lined up billions of dollars of financing from banks and equity partners, committed to a $1 billion breakup fee and a specific-performance right in the merger agreement, got through antitrust review and a shareholder vote, showed up at the closing and said “nope, just kidding!” I mean, that would be very funny. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-11/terra-flops https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-11/terra-...
  • aliswe 4y ago
    It wasn't a joke though, the Saudi Investment Fund made the promise to back it up, which was allegedly witnessed by the Tesla CFO as well.
    • shapefrog 4y ago
      Musk had one 30-minute conversation about potentially taking Tesla private with the Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund (“Saudi PIF”) on July 31, 2018. No price was discussed, no structure for the transaction was proposed, no amount of funding was agreed. That is the full extent of the promise to back it up. If it wasnt a joke or stock price manipulation to stop loans against the stock from triggering, then Musk is retarded. Its pretty obvious he isnt retarded so it must be one of the other options.
      • 55555 4y ago
        > No price was discussed. To be fair, the stock price is public info. It is generally understood that to take a company public you need a slightly higher offer and support of shareholders and/or board (Elon). So I could see how you could both be on roughly the same page re: price without talking about specific numbers.
• Dwolb 4y ago
  Has anyone here done this calculation before? How hard is it to reliably spot fake accounts across millions of users for SEC-level reporting fidelity?
• dools 4y ago
  The craziest thing in this world is that there are more conspiracy theories about Bill Gates being a super villain than Elon Musk. Talk about the opposite sketches!
  • mikkergp 4y ago
    It seems like there’s a growing distrust of seriousness lately. Caring isn’t cool or whatever.
  • headsoup 4y ago
    If you look into What Bill Gates' attention is focused on (massive landholder, wants the world fed synthetic beef, hopes the next pandemic will be centrally managed and controlled, ownership stakes in media, connected to Epstein), regardless of intent these things have 'scarier' implications than Musk's electric vehicles, rockets and Twitter ownership.
    • danaris 4y ago
      Indeed; Musk just looks like a cartoon villain. Gates walks the walk.
    • dools 4y ago
      Gates’ attention is focused on solving problems for people in emerging economies. What you’ve quoted are the types of batshit crazy conspiracy theories I’m referring to.
      • bool3max 4y ago
        What did he quote? He only stated facts.
      • cwkoss 4y ago
        Which of those are conspiracy theories? Hasn't Gates publicly spoken about all of those things?
        • 4y ago
• patrec 4y ago
  Are there plausible links between this announcement and the recent Twitter firings?
• strogonoff 4y ago
  I doubt the Twitter acquisition by Musk will go through, regardless of stated reasons. China is the second biggest market after the US for Tesla sales—meaning CCP wields the power to decimate Musk’s wealth, which Tesla stock is the main source of. Musk knows Tesla’s position in China is fragile (like that of any Western company), and the Chinese government knows he knows that; it seems unlikely they will pass on newly found leverage when it comes to influencing discourse on Western social media. By owning Twitter, Musk risks having to choose between his image as free speech maximalist and a large part of Tesla’s sales. From the outside, he doesn’t strike me as someone willing to sacrifice either. (He could implement some mechanism that gives CCP direct or indirect influence over Twitter without the public finding out, but that seems a bit far-fetched.) So far there seems to be no mainstream Western social platform that stands to lose anything by ignoring CCP’s censors. We don’t see YouTube videos, Facebook posts or tweets taken down due to requests from Chinese government. Revenue from China is not a factor for any of their mother companies. I think that’s a good status quo to maintain.
• LeicaLatte 4y ago
  How is this not hypocrisy? Isn't all social networking spam? Elon would do well to embrace the strengths of the medium rather than run away from it. I expected his amazebrains to understand this but maybe he is getting too old for modern tech.
• RivieraKid 4y ago
  Tweet from 3 days ago by Hindenburg Research: > NEW FROM US: We Are Short Twitter > Musk Holds All The Cards. We See a Significant Risk That The Twitter Deal Gets Repriced Lower Space Karen's reply: > Interesting. Don’t forget to look on the bright side of life sometimes! https://twitter.com/HindenburgRes/status/1523677782211186690 https://twitter.com/HindenburgRes/status/1523677782211186690
  • xuki 4y ago
    On the bright side they can probably get out of their position today for 15-20% profit. Not bad for a 3 days trade.
  • philosopher1234 4y ago
    Space Karen! That’s good
    • deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
• TrispusAttucks 4y ago
  I don't get all the hate here. If Twitter lied about spambot counts that violates the deal.
• Bubble_Pop_22 4y ago
  Hindenburg Research (which is notorious for unmasking frauds, stock promoters and market manipulators) called it on May 9th: https://twitter.com/HindenburgRes/status/1523677782211186690 https://twitter.com/HindenburgRes/status/1523677782211186690 Musk tried to use all his 90M followers weight and his snark belitteling them into closing the short : https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1523693971842957312 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1523693971842957312 Good on them for not listening to the noise and making bank. In many years of watching sports, politics, business, culture I have seldom seen a more distasteful character than mr. Musk. Back in my ignorant days I couldn't stand shortsellers, I considered them to be haters. Oh so little did I know. They are the custodian of market sanity and also the saviors of the American consumer, they keep in check these megalomaniacal cult figures such as Musk, Holmes, Bernie Madoff, Adam Neumann who enrich themselves by inflating financial bubbles of epic proportions while providing little to no quality of life to the consumer
  • mcintyre1994 4y ago
    Dumb question, do you know why he’d care about shorts? He’s already agreed a price, does it really matter if people are buying and selling it way lower than that before he buys it all? Is it just an appearance thing?
    • polygamous_bat 4y ago
      Short sellers push the price down, so on the chance he does go through with the purchase, he is seen like a fool who overpaid for the stock. And we all know how much narcissists like looking like fools.
  • Traster 4y ago
    I don't think he was pressuring them to close the short, I think he was hinting that it'd be good for him if he could reprice the deal.
  • zionic 4y ago
    No one takes short-n-distort crews seriously after the 2016-2018 disaster.
• Bubble_Pop_22 4y ago
  • Majestic121 4y ago
    Where are those people saying Elon is a sophisticated investor ? All I see in the thread is that it is most likely either a negotiation tactic to lower the price, or a way to get out of the deal without paying 1B. Don't fall into the reverse cult, from your comment it seems that you have an axe to grind against Elon, and it seems to follow the general narrative towards him that went from savior of humanity a few years ago to total villain now.
• marban 4y ago
  “Puer aeternus is Latin for ‘eternal boy’, used in mythology to designate a child-god who is forever young”
• drumhead 4y ago
  Elon Musk overpaid for Twitter, he knows it and it looks like he's trying to knock the price down or exit the deal entirely
• netfortius 4y ago
  Shorting Twitter, out of the public eye, on the other hand, is perfectly Musk-like approach (see previous Tesla stock manipulation). Simple and efficient
• blantonl 4y ago
  Elon Musk is the Donald Trump of market manipulators. Is there a formal term for this type of leadership that both exhibit? Rapid ready-fire-aim comments and actions? Constantly keeping everyone involved laser focused on what could be coming next, scared to death. Is this what the future of executive and political leadership looks like? The bull in the china shop? Both personalities will be graduate level studies of sociology and phycology for years to come. And the crazy thing is that this stuff resonates so well with so many people (read: the cult of Trump and Elon)
• marstall 4y ago
  Can some explain what the spam/fake accounts are? In my little corner of 4 or 5 accounts with 2500 followers total, and a dozen or so hashtags I check frequently, I really rarely see spam or bot accounts ... I mean they pop up but its not a major aspect of twitter for me in my daily experience. And I use twitter a LOT. Are they counting my +1 accounts as fake? they're not, they each represent a different side of myself that's real, even if they don't bear my name. one for a site I created, one for a particular community I participate in, etc...
• fleddr 4y ago
  If Twitter is true to their word that bots are less than 5% of the user base, then they should not have a problem providing evidence for that. It's an entirely valid question not just in Musk's interest, it's in the interest of every shareholder. The only questionable thing here is that Musk either does not grasp (or care) how influential his tweets are. He's tweeting as if he's just a random person with an opinion, but in reality his tweets tank stocks, pump (or dump) crypto, and activates a lot of harassment towards anybody he criticizes. With this in mind, the question about bots should have been asked behind closed doors. Usually, I don't at all have the impression that there's some evil master plan behind it, they are spontaneous clumsy tweets based on whatever is bothering him. Which in this case are bots that make Twitter unusable for him, or anybody else with a large following. Twitter very much deserves scrutiny and heavy criticism as it comes to bots. Look at Musk's tweets, within seconds there's hundreds of bots replying all with the same avatar and a slight misspelling of a user they're trying to mimic. It's a stunningly primitive pattern, and yet still Twitter is entirely incompetent or lax to address it. For years. These bot replies come in from their API and work based on accounts or simple keywords. Don't try this on somebody else's tweet, but you can test this yourself. Type "I need help with my metamask password". The moment you hit send, the notifications come rolling in. Setting aside Musk's intentions with Twitter, I am fully in favor of the wake-up call. The bot problem. A mysterious verification protocol. Weird boosts and declines in followers. Unclear censorship and shadow banning protocols. Twitter has some explaining to do.
• imron 4y ago
  Twitter Inc estimated. Oh the difference a missing space makes.
  • schmeckleberg 4y ago
    I think the (TWRT_T) link in the press release got removed by a summarizing bot or a summarizing intern. Thus, through chance and endless change, the English language has again been improved. I do believe I will now add "incestimate" to my personal lexicon for any assessment of an entity's value that comes from that self-same entity.
• arrakis2021 4y ago
  This could be why senior execs were let go yesterday. Heavily inflated numbers putting the deal at risk of a significantly lower price.
  • deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
• irthomasthomas 4y ago
  Don't believe it. Twitter made this filing May 2, and it took Musk 11 days to respond?
• MichaelMoser123 4y ago
  It is possible, that Musk didn't expect the twitter deal to become as politicised, as it did. Maybe he just got afraid of getting into the center of politics in the US. For example the state is a major customer, and they could just stop buying launch services from SpaceX for example, as the president might not agree with the politics of Mr Musk. I mean look at Bezos, he got into a fight with Trump, and the pentagon preferred Azure to AWS, all of a sudden. Yeah, and a year later that deal got cancelled too, by the next administration [1]. I mean Musk has a lot of business with Uncle Sam, he really can't play his own game, in terms of politics. I mean, i mean, they really have a lot of 'leverage' with Musk, to begin with. I would guess that Musk would be looking for a way out of the twitter deal, in order to protect his business. Also the economy is going into a recession, therefore his deals with the various governments are going to be much more important. Look, there is even talk of Musk building an e-tank with a German firm, Rheinmetall [2] [1] https://www.zdnet.com/article/pentagon-terminates-controversial-10-billion-jedi-cloud-contract-with-microsoft/ https://www.zdnet.com/article/pentagon-terminates-controvers... [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDe7OGpPodM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDe7OGpPodM
  • elliekelly 4y ago
    If Musk wasn't aware of the political, contractual, and regulatory implications of the twitter deal then he wasn't listening to his legal team. It seems to be one of his favorite business strategies.
    • MichaelMoser123 4y ago
      Interesting perspective. Actually the US government payed for the service: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/08/us-quietly-paying-millions-send-starlink-terminals-ukraine-contrary-spacexs-claims/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/08/us-quietl... https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/spacex-ukraine-elon-musk-starlink-government-b2055491.html https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/spacex-ukraine-elon-musk-...
      • MichaelMoser123 4y ago
• deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
• LZ_Khan 4y ago
  If twitter could detect what accounts were spam/fake accounts.. wouldn't they just.. ban them? The number of spam/fake accounts depends highly on the accuracy of your classifier. Twitter's classifier could just be: "This account is not fake" and there's nothing Elon could say. He can't even sue because for all intents and purposes Twitter is not lying, the classifier is just wrong.
  • FYYFFF 4y ago
    No, they need to show user growth. This is the problem with the public markets. Companies must grow, QoQ or they are a failure. Its at the root of so many of our issues. Some businesses should not grow, or need not grow. Stability is good for the market, but not good for today's Wall St pump and dump where the goal is to fleece others, not to build a viable, reliable business.
• hristov 4y ago
  I hate to point to my old posts and say I told you so but ... actually now that I am doing it, I am not hating it that much. Anyways, Elon did not have the money to buy Twitter, he had to sell a bunch of Tesla stock to do so, he tried to sell some stock and then the price of Tesla stock collapsed and there you have it. Just as I said. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31109355#31111059 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31109355#31111059
  • stjohnswarts 4y ago
    I mean he was literally buying twitter? How did he not have the money for it? Now that new information has come to light the deal is on hold. Maybe he came to his senses and realized twitter isn't worth what he's paying for it and that it will probably become a wasteland if he succeeds in making it "absolute free, short of violent threats, speech" friendly.
    • outworlder 4y ago
      > the deal is on hold. The deal cannot be put on hold. It's either moving forward or it isn't.
• Traster 4y ago
  Well this certainly makes what Parag did make sense. The market conditions have essentially dictated that Musk is now massively overpaying for twitter, and he's doing it from a weak position with the value of Tesla dropping. It would be insane for him to close at this price, and the other people who bought in to finance it will also be very hard to keep on board. So Musk needs to walk away at this price. The question is whether he can either find an out that doesn't involve paying the break up fee, or bully Twitter's board to accept a lower price. Given how Parag is behaving I think that's unlikely. It's important to remember though, if Musk walks away and then comes back with another offer it's going to be extremely hard to convince of a new deal, since Musk no longer has any credibility. The other thing to consider is that no one else wanted to buy Twitter for $45Bn. But let's say Musk walks away and Twitter drops back to where it should be at around $25 per share. Now you could easily see someone coming in and picking it up for $35-40 per share.
  • boringg 4y ago
    I think that's why he's hunting for the less than 5 % spam accounts. If that isn't accurate I bet you it allows them out of the breakup fee. Also probably difficult for Musk to go in at a lower price if the deal falls apart. Best and most likely only route forward for twitter ownership by Musk is probably board agreeing to a lower price but prices are sticky in peoples mind so might be tough times ahead.
    • minsc_and_boo 4y ago
      >If that isn't accurate I bet you it allows them out of the breakup fee. Not really. There's nothing in the deal contingent on this and Twitter has no fiscal or regulatory responsibility to report which accounts are fully human or not human. Having APIs and allowing bots shows that Twitter is open about having bot accounts.
      • romellem 4y ago
        This is correct. [This article][1] ([archive link][2]) goes through some of the contract law stuff, and they speak to this: * The merger agreement contains a provision that allows Musk to walk away if Twitter’s securities filings are wrong — and this 5% number is in its securities filings — but only if the inaccuracy would have a "Material Adverse Effect" (MAE) on the company. An MAE is apparently a high standard and courts [almost never find an MAE][2] [1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-13/elon-musk-trolls-twitter https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-13/elon-m... [2]: https://archive.ph/NFWVp https://archive.ph/NFWVp [3]: https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2018/10/delaware-chancery-court-finally-finds-an-mae https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2018/10/delaware-chance...
• Tycho 4y ago
  This takeover attempt carries a similar world historical significance to the Girardian interpretation of the Crucifixion. Jesus exposed the underlying collective violence, the scapegoat mechanism, that holds society together. Exposing the hidden mechanism weakens it, its psychological efficacy. And so of course the powers that be reacted, trying to silence Jesus and suppress his movement. But in doing so they only proved Jesus’s point, turning him into the ultimate example of the scapegoat and ensuring his message would echo through the ages. In the Information age, Musk is exposing the informational violence, censorship and propaganda, that power relies upon. And so of course the powers that be conspire to thwart his takeover attempt of the world’s most important social network, pulling the levers of law and regulation and politics to stop this simple business transaction, while running defamatory stories about him in the press. But in doing so they only reveal the true extent of their lies and deceit, ensuring Musk’s message reverberates through the public consciousness. The moment of revelation is inescapable.
  • rs_rs_rs_rs_rs 4y ago
    Is this a joke?
    • schmeckleberg 4y ago
      I think it's art and, as the youths are wont to say, I am here for it!
      • deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
  • deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  • pram 4y ago
    Musk is Christ is the hottest take I’ve seen in this thread so far, thanks!
• FYYFFF 4y ago
  Toxic hubris. The man is high on his own supply and he's acting like a spoiled child. I have no respect for this kind of stuff from a mature, capable person. Its trolling and it's destructive.
• roamerz 4y ago
  Elon is a smart guy and while this may seem knee jerkish to some and attributable to mental characteristics by others I’m pretty certain it will work out for him. Why? Look at his past accomplishments. This guy is a visionary and isn’t afraid to take risks to get’r done. Disclaimer: Not even close to smart enough to judge this guy.
  • frob 4y ago
    > Disclaimer: Not even close to smart enough to judge this guy. So off went the Emperor in procession under his splendid canopy. Everyone in the streets and the windows said, "Oh, how fine are the Emperor's new clothes! Don't they fit him to perfection? And see his long train!" Nobody would confess that he couldn't see anything, for that would prove him either unfit for his position, or a fool. No costume the Emperor had worn before was ever such a complete success. "But he hasn't got anything on," a little child said. "Did you ever hear such innocent prattle?" said its father. And one person whispered to another what the child had said, "He hasn't anything on. A child says he hasn't anything on." "But he hasn't got anything on!" the whole town cried out at last. The Emperor shivered, for he suspected they were right. But he thought, "This procession has got to go on." So he walked more proudly than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn't there at all.
• dcow 4y ago
  Curious why this is immediately about Elon and his psyche? Is it not possible that Twitter may have/be wildly understated/ing how many fake accounts are present on its platform in an effort to stay above water and such information is coming to light during diligence? Wouldn't that type of discovery put any “normal” deal on hold? It’s usually not great as a buyer when you discover the item you just bought or are looking to buy isn’t actually worth what you perceived or were lead to believe it is which is why these deals involve diligence in the first place.
  • mirceal 4y ago
    It's because of his way of doing things in the past and his credibility. Why does he even need to announce this on Twitter if this isn't another one of his schemes. If this was anyone else we wouldn't bat an eyelid.
  • systemvoltage 4y ago
    People on HN really despise him. I think I saw someone call him Space Karen. This entire comment section is frothing with hate, and not much objectivity.
• bambax 4y ago
  > Uniquely among public-company CEOs, Elon Musk has in the past pretended he was going to take a public company private with pretend financing! I am not saying that he’s joking now; I am just saying he’s the only person who has ever made this particular joke in the past. > Perhaps he has decided that the joke would be even funnier if he signed a merger agreement, lined up billions of dollars of financing from banks and equity partners, committed to a $1 billion breakup fee and a specific-performance right in the merger agreement, got through antitrust review and a shareholder vote, showed up at the closing and said “nope, just kidding!” I mean, that would be very funny. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-11/terra-flops https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-11/terra-...
• rossdavidh 4y ago
  Score another one for Hindenburg, who predicted something like this (and bet on it) less than a week before it happened: https://hindenburgresearch.com/twitter/ https://hindenburgresearch.com/twitter/
• mupuff1234 4y ago
  Are there numbers/estimates for % of bots in other social media sites?
• sysadm1n 4y ago
  https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/1525049369552048129 https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/1525049369552048129
• gigatexal 4y ago
  Anyone else laughing maniacally? I am. This is so great. Tesla is tanking. Twitter is, too (and so is the market in general but if the Twitter deal were a sure thing it’d be trading at near 54.20 but it’s not…). I think the market is finally figuring out that Musk is a smart guy with no filter and says anything he wants to because he was given a platform because Tesla’s stock has 10x’d.
  • livinglist 4y ago
    Hopefully those Tesla/Elon Musk fanboys finally realize that Elon musk is just another capitalist with some sugar coat lol
• Vladimof 4y ago
  Only one top level comment visible on the first page ...
  • Underphil 4y ago
    You have to hand it to the man. I wouldn't piss on him if he was on fire, and have zero interest in Twitter, yet I'm drawn to this comments section like a moth to a flame. He knows what he's doing.
• xlpqt 4y ago
  I guess Twitter can ban Musk now for not going through with the deal. If that happens, where will he get all the attention?
  • shapefrog 4y ago
    you have to delete your twitter account The deal break clause should have been this...
• alkonaut 4y ago
  The wording of the contract had lots of text describing the various ways in which either party could become liable for backing out of the deal. If I was to ever make a deal involving Elon Musk the first thing I’d make sure is to have paragraphs making it clear that Elon doesn’t open his mouth about it until the deal is either completed or cancelled.
• FollowingTheDao 4y ago
  Who deserves this much attention? Elon or the countless people with mental illnesses living on the street?
• Invictus0 4y ago
  There's no one in finance on HN and it shows. Elon can pay the $1Bn breakup fee and renegotiate the deal at a lower price, given the current market conditions. This is completely reasonable and rational, and Hindenburg called it days ago; but the top comment right now is arguing that Elon is "unhinged".
• greenglass 4y ago
  Surprised that people know so much about Musk and claim they don’t like him. I can see nerding out on your hero or whatever, but to be motivated to research his personal upbringing out of disdain for the man strikes me as a bit unhinged. As someone who is 60/40 pro musk it’s bizarre the emotions he triggers in certain types of people. If we could somehow harness that energy…
  • flavius29663 4y ago
    > If we could somehow harness that energy… I think Musk already figured this out: he's overworking his employees and overselling to his customers. He's a marketing genius, better than Steve Jobs
    • systemvoltage 4y ago
      Did you ever wonder that employees wanted to work for Steve Jobs and Elon Musk? From my experience, and personal contacts that have both joined and left SpaceX, this is the case. These comments never made any sense. A job at Tesla is not akin to Slavery. But most people act like it is. Why?
      • flavius29663 4y ago
        of course they wanted, and it might still be a good deal for them long term. But compared to market rates, the USD/hour is smaller in Tesla than at most tech companies. Musk makes up the difference with PR: he sales the job so well that people are willing to take a paycut to work there. Nothing wrong with that, also nothing wrong with being convinced to spend more on a car than you need too, in fact I think most Americans do anyway...
  • tombert 4y ago
    I don't think it's weird. I know a lot about the life of Ted Bundy and John Wayne Gacy and Bernie Madoff, but that doesn't mean that I like them. Not trying to compare Musk to a serial killer or a Ponzi schemer, but my point is that I think most of his critics will acknowledge that he's an interesting person, even if they think he's a douchebag.
• LightG 4y ago
  What's "funny" (sad/tragic not haha) is that his cult will have bought into this on the 'anything he touches turns to gold' tip.
• RustyConsul 4y ago
  It's interesting that people are using this moment to fault Elon, when it's one of his finest moments. Making an 'offer' on what you believe to be good faith. Hidden in your pocket, you know the other party is acting in bad faith. (Twitter says 5% of the DAU is bots) Elon calls them out on that ridiculously low number, says the deal is on hold until this fraud is verified. Obviously the bots on twitter account for more than 5%, and will be at the detriment of the biggest KPI that twitter touts. He's given them a taste of what will happen if they walk away from the deal by 'putting it on hold' and watching the stock lose 10% in precisely the same day as a general market recovery. He now has the ability to renegotiate below his 'best and final offer'.
  • mikkergp 4y ago
    Seems like a risky move but this whole thing is high risk so, it’s not out of the question.
  • teachrdan 4y ago
    > it's one of his finest moments What if he dedicated this energy to reducing homelessness or slowing climate change? Showing up a tech company for having a lot of fake accounts seems more like a dick measuring contest than a fine moment for anyone.
    • pb7 4y ago
      It's not his job to reduce homelessness or slow climate change. Dedicate your energy to getting your elected representatives to do their jobs. They have orders of magnitude more money and power.
      • jmeister 4y ago
        And Twitter is helping get around elite failures that are causing those problems to persist: https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/actually-twitter-is-real-life https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/actually-twitter-is-re...
      • teachrdan 4y ago
• hunterb123 4y ago
  ITT: conspiracy theories and personal insults
  • SantalBlush 4y ago
    Elon Musk called a guy a pedophile. He deserves to be insulted.
• the_doctah 4y ago
  Don't care about the reasons, but finally one of these platforms are getting called on their BS. MAU has a large impact on valuation, all of these platforms are filled with spam bots, and they are allowed to flourish because it pumps up those numbers. The platforms content suffers (Instagram comments anyone?), but they reach higher valuations because of these nonsense MAU numbers. They are all guilty of fraud. It's well within their ability to combat bots, but they have zero motivation to do so. Eager to see what comes out of this.
• floatinglotus 4y ago
  The guy is a clown. Don’t trust what he says.
• StillBored 4y ago
  I can't imagine any state, where this "deal" was anything other than a "I'm a bigger man than you" kind of thing. Probably fueled by some mind altering substances. All fine and dandy as long as its like a billionaire throwing a $100 bill at a bum, but when it turns out that it could sink his ship, or at least put him in serious financial trouble and threaten things he actually cares about, then he needs to find a way to get out of it. I've been sorta a musk fan because he was willing to risk everything to pull off things that no one else was willing to take a risk on. OTOH, its patently obvious that he isn't some kind of genius, more like a gambler who managed a winning streak and somehow thinks its because they have a lucky charm. Maybe his biggest strength is that he is such a fine bullshitter he can detect it in others a mile away.
  • mrguyorama 4y ago
    >Maybe his biggest strength is that he is such a fine bullshitter he can detect it in others a mile away. Bullshitters who succeed have a strong tendency to start smelling their own farts and drinking their own koolaid
  • memish 4y ago
    Why do people think they have a better idea of his abilities and contributions than those who know him personally? John Carmack: "Elon is definitely an engineer. He is deeply involved with technical decisions at spacex and Tesla. He doesn’t write code or do CAD today, but he is perfectly capable of doing so." Here's Kevin Watson, who developed the avionics for Falcon 9 and Dragon and previously managed the Advanced Computer Systems and Technologies Group within the Autonomous Systems Division at NASA's Jet Propulsion laboratory: "Elon is brilliant. He’s involved in just about everything. He understands everything. If he asks you a question, you learn very quickly not to go give him a gut reaction. He wants answers that get down to the fundamental laws of physics. One thing he understands really well is the physics of the rockets. He understands that like nobody else. The stuff I have seen him do in his head is crazy. He can get in discussions about flying a satellite and whether we can make the right orbit and deliver Dragon at the same time and solve all these equations in real time. It’s amazing to watch the amount of knowledge he has accumulated over the years." Garrett Reisman, engineer and former NASA astronaut: "What's really remarkable to me is the breadth of his knowledge. I mean I've met a lot of super super smart people but they're usually super super smart on one thing and he's able to have conversations with our top engineers about the software, and the most arcane aspects of that and then he'll turn to our manufacturing engineers and have discussions about some really esoteric welding process for some crazy alloy and he'll just go back and forth and his ability to do that across the different technologies that go into rockets cars and everything else he does."
• ineedasername 4y ago
  Pure speculation: Musk still wants Twitter and doesn't care about the money that lawsuits or a breakup might cost. What he cares about is looking foolish for buying Twitter at a premium to it's stock price right before tech stock prices tumble even further. In short, it's not about money, not about new information (% spam accounts), not about cold feet, it's about what he thinks would be seen as an embarrassingly bad business decision.
• scollet 4y ago
  Twitter is about to become a marketing platform.
• rasz 4y ago
  Its never to late for due diligence https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252512620/British-court-rules-in-HPs-favour-in-Mike-Lynch-fraud-case https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252512620/British-court-... https://www.cio.com/article/304397/the-hp-autonomy-lawsuit-timeline-of-an-ma-disaster.html https://www.cio.com/article/304397/the-hp-autonomy-lawsuit-t... In best case scenario might end up like this with Twitter CEO (which one) facing securities fraud charges.
• wnevets 4y ago
  Alwaleed bin Talal and the folks from Qatar are gonna be upset
• tptacek 4y ago
  As Matt Levine points out in today's Money Stuff: no, it's not. There's no such thing as "temporarily on hold". Musk is obligated to buy Twitter. He can't just pay a break-up fee; Twitter can compel him to complete the deal. Musk's only "out" is that a Delaware court finds a "Material Adverse Effect" occurrence. They (1) never do, (2) there's a rule of thumb for the magnitude of an effect to qualify as "Material" (something like 40% off revenue), and (3) the bot-user thing he's talking about was specifically disclaimed by Twitter in their filings, and likely can't be the basis of an MAE claim. None of this is to say the deal will go through; Musk can just ignore the law, as is his wont.
• Tehchops 4y ago
  It was as if millions of twitter trolls with a distorted idea of free speech suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced.
• idoh 4y ago
  Elon's comment is just as likely to have been made in jest as serious, which is not a take I've seen in these comments. If you follow his Twitter account then it seems in line with his sense of humor. A lot of people get pretty riled up over his tweets it seems. If it brings you joy then follow it. If it messes with your mind, then maybe just unfollow it. He's rich, mercurial, sarcastic, and a lot of other things, but ultimately you can just disconnect from it and go about your life.
• daanlo 4y ago
  Taking an absolutely wild guess here, but the reasoning sounds like a Due Diligence finding by one of the financing partners to me. E.g. one of the banks that would loan some of the money hired a commercial DD team. The 5% fake accounts was a red flag raised by them and the bank is making their financing subject to an explanation on the 5% fake account topic. Maybe the bank is also only pushing this „finding“, since they want weasel out of the deal, but can only due this for legitimate DD findings. The business plan probably has 5% fake accounts as an assumption in it and if this is 15% the economics would change. /End of wild guess
• yumraj 4y ago
  Looks like a repeat of the "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured."
• lizardactivist 4y ago
  Just an excuse. Either he actually has changed his mind, or other people, possibly government, made him change his mind. I can definitely believe that the U.S. government does not want to allow just anyone to wield something like Twitter to their liking.
• alaricus 4y ago
  with the market taking a nose dive, elon musk probably doesn't have the money he thought he had.
• memish 4y ago
  Here's what prompted this. Yesterday Elon saw a bunch of obvious bots[1] and asked "If Twitter can tell the difference between real and fake users, why does it allow these in our comments?" That's a good question. Anyone have a good answer? 1] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1524909413462573058 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1524909413462573058
  • yumraj 4y ago
    So you're saying that Elon Musk made an offer to buy Twitter without knowing about the above issue I'll say that makes him look like an amateur ..
    • scotuswroteus 4y ago
      I'm more interested in the slightly less snarky question of what led Elon to believe the number was <5%
    • daenz 4y ago
      How is he expected to know whether Twitter knows if their bot% number is accurate? You're suggesting he should know more than Twitter does about their internal data. And it's the internal data that is being disputed.
  • bsder 4y ago
    Tech is down and Elon now wants out. Musk knew the numbers and didn't care before everything started crashing. Bend over, Elon. Pony up the gigabuck and go home.
    • memish 4y ago
      "Still committed to acquisition" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1525080945274998785 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1525080945274998785 He probably wants to save $10bn on the price and stick it to the board that originally tried to block the deal with a poison pill.
  • yupper32 4y ago