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Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

• nkurz 5y ago
  https://archive.md/Fkpwr https://archive.md/Fkpwr
• Jimmc414 5y ago
  [But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”.] The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions. It is discouraging that scientists can make statements like this and get away with it.
  • ceejayoz 5y ago
    Scientists do not have the luxury of pretending politics and bad actors don’t exist.
    • Jimmc414 5y ago
      Politics and bad actors have always existed. Scientists should counter them with facts and honesty not censorship.
      • xqcgrek2 5y ago
        That's not how the world or mathematics (game theory) works
        • Jimmc414 5y ago
          Can you think of a scenario where science has ever benefited from censorship? Correct me if I am wrong, but respectfully that is the argument you are making, right?
          • sooheon 5y ago
            Not that science benefits from censorship, but that game theory sometimes necessitates it. Imagine a scientist with significant political cachet. This allows them to receive more funding, do more science. They cannot optimize their behavior only for truth-seeking, because that fails to maximize their political capital. If they optimize for the former, they will be replaced by someone who is better at the latter. Any scientist that relies on external funding must balance science with politics to continue to do science, sometimes this involves censorship.
      • ceejayoz 5y ago
        > Scientists should counter them with facts and honesty not censorship. Scientists must be careful in how they communicate, and organizations like the CDC and FDA need to staff expert scientific communicators who can explain complicated things to lay people. Bill Nye types. "Vaccines contain dihydrogen monoxide, a chemical that killed over 200,000 people within hours in 2004" is a scientifically factual statement, but not a well communicated one.
    • johncena33 5y ago
      The reality is not so rosy. Many virologists know that if lab leak is true their careers will be over. So I am very skeptical of how much obfuscations and disinformation spread by virologists is for the good of humanity and how much of it is just to protect their self interest.
  • xqcgrek2 5y ago
    This is how science works in the post-WW2 era. Most prominent scientists (in any field) seldom do science when they attain their stature -- they manage people (students and postdocs), and many become politicians for their institution or lab to attain more funding.
    • Jimmc414 5y ago
      I'm curious, what effect do you see WW2 having on science itself? That is not intended to be argumentative, I'd like to hear your opinion.
      • nradov 5y ago
        By that point most of the low-hanging scientific "fruit" had already been picked. Due to increasing complexity and the high workload of running experiments, solo scientists could no longer make much progress. So they had to act as administrators and project managers, leading larger teams of assistants and graduate students.
      • xqcgrek2 5y ago
        Government funding of science and a proposal/grant system. Senior people spend a lot of time writing proposals, and need underlings to do the leg work. They also have to be politically savvy so their peers don't reject their proposals.
        • btrettel 5y ago
          To expand on this, before World War II, there was far less federal funding for science, and I don't think university faculty had the need to bring in external funding that they do now. I don't know the history of requirements that faculty bring in funding, however. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK45556/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK45556/
  • dane-pgp 5y ago
    > warned it could damage “international harmony”. I've never understood the argument that people would want to suppress the (accidental) lab-leak hypothesis out of a desire to protect the image of China. If the lab-leak hypothesis is incorrect, that doesn't change the fact that the virus originated in that country, it just means that the virus emerged from a wet market. I'm not Chinese, but I'd imagine that a country's image is more harmed by accusations of having backwards cultural and food habits (and insufficient government regulation of dangerous markets) rather than potentially just one lone scientist making a mistake while working on advanced genetic research, which is a risk at any such lab in the world.
    • boomboomsubban 5y ago
      >I'm not Chinese, but I'd imagine that a country's image is more harmed by accusations of having backwards cultural and food habits (and insufficient government regulation of dangerous markets) Yeah, there could never be a virus transmitted between Westerners and their food. Some kind of "swine flu" is a ridiculous notion.
    • Jimmc414 5y ago
      I agree. Should Galileo have suppressed his observations to protect the Catholic Church? If he had, would it have been in the name of science or something else?
      • analog31 5y ago
        An amusing factoid is that the Vatican astronomers bought one or more telescopes from Galileo and confirmed his observational data.
    • theplumber 5y ago
      >> I'm not Chinese, but I'd imagine that a country's image is more harmed by accusations of having backwards cultural and food habits You forget the politics. CCP can never be wrong or do wrong. That would risk their rule. I'm pretty sure they would rather see the country burning than admitting guilt and incompetence. You can see that kind of selfish behaviour at most of the leaders(I would dare to say even in recent US history) but in an authoritan system this is made worse/more dramatic b/c there is no alternative(i.e opposition to replace leaders in a peaceful way)
  • wahern 5y ago
    A charitable interpretation would read the statement as "further speculative debate". Indeed, several of the lab leak arguments mentioned in that very article were subsequently disproven months later, and their unqualified and categorical assertions were arguably no less unprofessional (indeed, perhaps more unprofessional) than other scientists simply exclaiming, "Ssshhhhhh". We can't know the precise motivations behind those who suggested Sir Jermey pipe down, but indeed that's the problem with such speculative discourse. When speaking with a public voice--which can arguably include private communications to political leadership--there's nothing per se untoward, IMHO, with demanding that professionals speak carefully. It's a fine line, but I don't see anything damning in these e-mail disclosures even though I'll readily admit that many people, including professionals (scientists, journalists, etc), prematurely dismissed the possibility of a Wuhan lab leak.
  • Mandatum 5y ago
    Collins hasn't done anything except management and policy for the last 30 years. The closest he's gotten to science is writing books I'd put in the autobiography or philosophy section and tag it "theistic evolution".
    • helloworld 5y ago
      At least as of 2011: "Collins remains actively involved in research, studying the molecular genetics of diseases including cancer and adult-onset diabetes. His group also is developing animal models of genetic disorders to test potential therapeutic approaches." [0] [0] Kresge N, Simoni RD, Hill RL. The Molecular Genetics of Cystic Fibrosis: The Work of Francis Collins. J Biol Chem. 2011 Aug 12;286(32):e8–9. doi: 10.1074/jbc.O111.000248. PMCID: PMC3151108
      • jeremyjh 5y ago
        Yes, that is the management part of his job. He runs a research group and probably has to spend much of his time looking for funding for that group while lightly supervising the actual science it is doing.
        • dash2 5y ago
          That’s what most senior scientists do. It doesn’t condone violating the norms of science, though.
  • johncena33 5y ago
    > warned it could damage “international harmony”. "international harmony" is just a front for hiding self-interest. Many elites, including the said virologists and bureaucrats, have significant financial or other ties with China. That's why any discussion of China and pandemics is very quickly buried with bullying and force [1]. [1]: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FI3V-gdWQAkWyJS?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FI3V-gdWQAkWyJS?format=jpg&name=...
  • blockwriter 5y ago
    This is the behavior of a priesthood.
  • grover35 5y ago
    • throwawaysea 5y ago
      The CCP is already furthering oppression more than anyone else. They have absolutely decimated the indigenous way of Chinese life because they are anti culture and anti religion, except where it aligns with their party ideology. Harming their credibility actually helps the “actual” indigenous Chinese people and way of life.
    • pault 5y ago
      I can’t tell if this is satire or not…
    • slowmotiony 5y ago
      Oh give me a fucking break. Ever been to China? The country is ruled by Han supremacists and is openly racist to its own citizens who aren't Han. To defend the CCP using the argument of "Deep racism since the West existed" is just absurd party propaganda.
      • dang 5y ago
        Please don't take HN threads further into flamewar, regardless of how right you are or feel you are. It just leads to hell. Also really tedious and repetitive threads, and we want the opposite. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  • ifkngluvscience 5y ago
    "Science" is a big-money industry with motivated sponsors, government influence, and strict gatekeeping. When the quote says "further debate would do unnecessary harm to science," it's talking about this, the big S Science industry. The scientific method is a way to verify truths by testing hypotheses. The Science industry will kick you out if you uncover inconvenient truths or even test the wrong hypotheses.
  • awb 5y ago
    > The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions True, but it’s possible to ask questions that sway public opinion. Look at all the “studies” tobacco companies paid for. Or the racist scientific theories that attempted to justify slavery. If you’re asking questions about a lab leak out of genuine scientific interest, that’s perfectly legitimate. But if you’re asking out of a desire to win political points, stir up tensions, etc., that’s destructive. There are plenty of actors on both sides, using the same tool of scientific inquiry for good and for ill.
    • whatshisface 5y ago
      Your examples don't match the point you were making. The bent studies from tobacco companies were falsifying answers, not just asking questions, and the racist theories were operating on a hazy pseudoscientific level that can't even be called "falsification," but were also, by another means, giving false answers. There may have been a time in history when asking questions alone has been used maliciously, but it's neither of those.
      • awb 5y ago
        They’re the end result of asking biased questions then manipulating answers to fit those biased questions. My point is that if you ask biased questions it won’t be long until someone provides biased answers. You need to ask unbiased questions to get unbiased answers.
        • whatshisface 5y ago
          "Does tobacco smoking cause cancer," isn't a biased question... What's biased is answering it with a "no."
          • awb 5y ago
            Right but when asked by biased people, with biased intent, it solicits biased answers. It looks innocent on the surface but it’s anything but.
  • throwaway4good 5y ago
    Check out Peter Daszak twitter profile for an example for the abuse you will get if you speak out against the lab leak hypothesis: https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak Quite understandable if you would not want to participate in that.
    • JudasGoat 5y ago
      Somewhat telling that you need a "throwaway" to point that out...
      • throwaway4good 5y ago
        JudasGoat was already taken ...
      • throwaway4good 5y ago
        But seriously. It is easy to be labelled "CCP-shill" or "useful idiot" if you question the lab leak theory. And what is even crazier is that the lab leak-proponents are convinced that they are being censored. Even though they are completely dominating here (and elsewhere) in the hn comments, commenting on a pro-lab leak theory article from a major UK newspaper.
        • mandmandam 5y ago
          Facebook, Twitter and Instagram deleted millions of posts for simply discussing the mere possibility of a lab leak. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/may/27/facebook-lifts-ban-on-posts-claiming-covid-19-was-man-made https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/may/27/facebook-... That's not conspiracy, that's fact; and it's weird no one called you out on it.
• karpierz 5y ago
  Is there a way to disprove the lab leak hypothesis?
  • Sunspark 5y ago
    Disprove it? No. We do innocent until proven guilty in our jurisprudence.
    • colordrops 5y ago
      This isn't a US legal case; it's a scientific inquiry. Either lab leak or zoonosis is plausible, so you can't say one isn't the default until the other is proven. You don't flip a coin and say "heads until proven tails".
    • nahnahno 5y ago
      This seems like the misuse of impressive sounding words. The hypothesis has nothing to do with US law. It’s a question of whether there is sufficient empirical evidence in support of the prevailing hypothesis, that the virus originated from a market in Wuhan.
      • Sunspark 5y ago
        No, there isn't especially after 2 years. This does not however mean that in the absence of wet market evidence that the only possible answer is lab leak.
  • xqcgrek2 5y ago
    Yes - an animal host or reservoir is found. It's unusual after 2 years none has been found.
    • sudosysgen 5y ago
      There are many animal hosts or reservoirs. The issue is that it's not obvious wether they got it from or gave it to humans. You really need the most direct ancestor virus.
• perihelions 5y ago
  >"Professor Andrew Rambaut, from the University of Edinburgh, also said that furin cleavage site “strikes me as unusual”." >"He added: “I think the only people with sufficient information or access to samples to address it would be the teams working in Wuhan.”" This pair of quotes has a completely different meaning from the original quote it sliced up: >"I am also agnostic on this – I do not have any experience of laboratory virology and don’t know what is likely or not in that context. From a (natural) evolutionary point of view the only thing here that strikes me as unusual is the furin cleavage site. It strongly suggests to me that we are missing something important in the origin of the virus. My inclination would be that it is a missing host species in which this feature arose because it was selected for in that host. We can see this insertion has resulted in an extremely fit virus in humans – we can also deduce that it is not optimal for transmission in bat species." >"... [this ellipsis (...) is from the house.gov transcription] The biggest hinderance at the moment (for this and more generally) is the lack of data and information. There have been no genome sequences from Wuhan for cases more recent than the 6 beginning of January and reports, but no information, about virus from non-human animals in Wuhan. If the evolutionary origins of the epidemic were to be discussed, I think the only people with sufficient information or access to samples to address it would be the teams working in Wuhan." https://republicans-oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Letter-Re.-Feb-1-Emails-011122.pdf https://republicans-oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2... (pp. 8-9) To emphasize the very last part: Rambaut is talking about genome sequences from human patients in Wuhan -- not laboratory data from the suspect WIV. But the Telegraph quote implies the opposite. (Also, obviously I'm not picking any "side" here: dishonesty in the Telegraph doesn't vindicate dishonesty in NIH leadership, and vice-versa).
  • systemvoltage 5y ago
    The article shouldn’t have quote this person in the first place - there are plenty of serious investigations into the lab leak theory from reputable virologists. I recommend Alina Chan’s new book: Viral. This clarification also masquerades as a clarification of something important. This person quoted by the tabloid is irrelevant here. In fact this article does more damage to the credibility of lab theory than otherwise and your clarification just shows. Frustrating both the article and your clarification of basically a meaningless source. There is a vast amount of information regarding lab leak theory and potential origin spanning back 20 years even though China has shut any investigation with gag orders and complete lack of transparency. Too much to unpack. My concern is this: People will read your clarification of the quote as if it’s something important to clarify. Source itself is garbage.
• rhcom2 5y ago
  Is there a way, outside full transparency from China in some "perestroika" type situation which seems highly unlikely, we will ever really know for sure?
  • nradov 5y ago
    It's also possible that the Chinese authorities themselves don't even know exactly what happened. Despite their authoritarian surveillance state they aren't omniscient.
    • systemvoltage 5y ago
      Massive push for gag orders and having to sign in red ink over “severe punishment” for discussing anything related to COVID across the entire science community in China? Every virus related paper must be approved by CCP before publishing it or they’ll face severe consequences. I have by default zero trust in CCP. So they would need to go out of their way to disprove it. Even then, I would question forgery and fake made up data to show to the world. Ethics goes out of the window when it’s party’s reputation.
    • Reason077 5y ago
      It's easy to make sure you don't know what you don't want to know if you don't go looking for it.
      • dane-pgp 5y ago
        To give a recent Western example, here is a story in two acts: "An Intelligence Report Will Say UK Spy Agencies Found No Evidence Of Russian State Interference In The Outcome Of The Brexit Referendum"[0] "Boris Johnson refuses Russia report's demand to probe 'meddling' in Brexit vote"[1] [0] https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/intelligence-report-russia-no-interference-brexit https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/intelligence-report... [1] https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnson-refuses-russia-22390201 https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-boris-johnso...
      • RandomBK 5y ago
• Flankk 5y ago
• joelbondurant1 5y ago
• djkivi 5y ago
  • perryizgr8 5y ago
    Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.
    • TrispusAttucks 5y ago
      We really have come full circle haven't we.
  • philliphaydon 5y ago
    It was never debunked. But a lot of claiming it to be debunked.
  • tootie 5y ago
    That article has a correction front and center. The mistake at the time was conflating lab leak theory with engineered weapon theory. Lab leak has never been disproven but the media rightly said it's unlikely despite lots of assertions to the contrary.
  • _ozde 5y ago
    I think HN debunked it too.
    • Thorrez 5y ago
      WAs it? I remember debates about it on HN.
      • _ozde 5y ago
        At least according to this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24482197 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24482197
        • 5y ago
• neonate 5y ago
  Alina Chan on this: https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1480947600199229444 https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1480947600199229444
  • neom 5y ago
    She's also on HN as of a few days ago, fingers crossed she chimes in here: https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=Ayjchan https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=Ayjchan
  • chrisjc 5y ago
    Also on Hidden Forces podcast a few weeks back with her co-author: https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/lab-leak-hypothesis-alina-chan-matt-ridley/ https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/lab-leak-hypothesis-alina-c...
• marcodiego 5y ago
  Certainly could hurt. Saying anything related to China at that moment could sound like conspiracy theory, xenophobia or racism, certainly bringing in question the reputation and professionalism of these scientists. Now... "Scientists believed..." Considering the realm of professional scientists, beliefs have no value and should be guarded unless sufficient evidence arises. They behaved well by not announcing it. Their behavior maybe questionable if it has had any negative impact on the awareness of the problem. But that is another matter and not something one should omit if the problem, initially, turned out the be clearly serious. AFAIK, that was not the case.
  • enchiridion 5y ago
    It’s anti-scientific to not consider a leak from the lab studying coronavirus in a city where a novel one appears. Where do you think hypothesis come from? Ingenuity based on educated beliefs is a the very core of science. The above stance sounds a lot like the cult of science which has become so pervasive. They did not behave well. Many scientists put forward the seafood market and then animal vector believes which have equal or less evidence.
• DarknessFalls 5y ago
  Can someone explain why the furin cleavage site is unusual from a natural evolutionary view?
  • jeremyjh 5y ago
    If a feature would make the virus very unsuccessful in bats, then how did it propagate? There had to be another cross-over species or something but no one has any data to suggest what that is. China has apparently made it impossible to do the work of piecing that together, so the lab leak hypothesis may never be put to bed. Maybe the party leadership believes a lab leak is likely even if they have no specific knowledge of it.
    • DarknessFalls 5y ago
      To add to my original question, is the furin cleavage site further adapted in the Omicron variant, explaining its increased infectiousness? If so, what is the difference between that and the Delta variant?
      • Sparyjerry 5y ago
        The Omicron variant is actual prior to Delta variant and prior to all other variants even so named Alpha variant. This article indicates why Omicron could be yet another lab leak. https://bprice.substack.com/p/lab-leak-20 https://bprice.substack.com/p/lab-leak-20
    • tim333 5y ago
      EcoHealth Alliance, the main US funders of the Wuhan lab have been awfully shy about letting anyone see their data. There's a good chance proof is there and the data can legally forced out of them.
  • _Nat_ 5y ago
    RootClaim discusses that claim and its perceived relevance [here](https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2#furin_cleavage https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV... ).
• awb 5y ago
  Some additional perspectives: Snopes is highly skeptical: https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/07/16/lab-leak-evidence/ https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/07/16/lab-leak-evidence/ An r/science essay from a PhD in virology is highly skeptical: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... While Root Claim estimates an 83% chance of a lab leak: https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2 https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...
  • perryizgr8 5y ago
    Snopes and the science page on reddit are not confidence-inspiring sources, to be honest. We need an authoritative investigation (led by WHO/CDC) into the origins of the virus to be able to make knowledgable statements. Until that happens, there is only hearsay and speculation.
    • deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    • rhino369 5y ago
      I wouldn’t trust the CDC or WHO. We need an independent group who don’t have any baggage on this issue. CDC can’t be trusted to even make a simple covid test and they don’t want to admit scientific research killed 20 million people.
      • perryizgr8 5y ago
        Sad truth is that CDC/WHO are one of the most competent authorities on the matter, and they have experienced experts in the relevant fields. Only when politics comes into play, that the organisations' actions and intentions are called into question. The ideal thing would be to somehow remove international political considerations from the equation and then ask WHO to conduct an investigation. Of course, the chances of that happening are probably lower than an actually lethal virus leaking from a lab.
    • 5y ago
• RikNieu 5y ago
  > “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. You know what else causes unnecessary harm to science, public trust and health policy? Repeated and condescending lies and gas-lighting from those in charge.
  • senectus1 5y ago
    so also does the firehose of conspiracy theory's, misinformation and lunatic fringe that appears to be the overtly noisy minority on all forms of media these days.
    • disambiguation 5y ago
      Deliberate misinformation directly from your government meant to control the reaction of the masses is orders of magnitude more dangerous than your right-wing uncle meme-ing on Facebook. Not even close.
      • senectus1 5y ago
        Not sure I agree. Its harder for Gov to keep a secret than it is for a facebook group to maintain a lie. much much harder. And there are various degrees of accountability to every level of a Gov. Not as much as I'd like and not as reliable as i'd like it to be, but its there. there is zero, zilch, no accountability for facebook liars.
        • nervlord 5y ago
    • mod 5y ago
      I'm going to jump in here, because I wanted to make a point about conspiracy theorists, too. What pisses me off most about this is that now it's so much easier for a conspiracy theorist to believe in government cover-ups of big, important things. One of my family members is way into all this stuff, and next time I tell him cancer isn't cured because how would all the experts across the globe all simultaneously keep that a secret--he's gonna point at this. People can be stupid and believe really crazy ideas, but let's not have governments and experts lying to the people they represent.
• 99_00 5y ago
  Trust the science and experts, huh? What a joke. A genocidal totalitarian regime that harvests organs from non-violent political prisoners may be responsible for the worst accident in human history and the people we count on for the unbiased truth are covering it up. I wonder what they'd do for more funding. Being called anti-science is starting to look like a compliment. And their's more: >Chan said there had been trepidation among some scientists about publicly discussing the lab leak hypothesis for fear that their words could be misconstrued or used to support racist rhetoric about how the coronavirus emerged. https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/lab-leak-theory-science-scientists-rcna1191 https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/lab-leak-theory...
  • tootie 5y ago
    Ironic because Chan has been a media crusade about it. Every news org seems willing to give her air time even though she's turned up zilch. Now chiming that the media is suppressing is the cry of someone who has staked their career on an argument they can't win it's merits. If she (or anyone) had some viable proof then it would be guaranteed to be splashed on every front page.
    • rrdharan 5y ago
      I think you’re mistaking a book tour for a media crusade.
  • WaxedChewbacca 5y ago
• TrispusAttucks 5y ago
  So much data drops and narrative shifts taking place re:covid data. Allegedly those [1] project defuse documents submitted to darpa we're legit. How they gonna wiggle out of that if so? Brace for house of cards collapse. [1] https://www.projectveritas.com/news/military-documents-about-gain-of-function-contradict-fauci-testimony-under/ https://www.projectveritas.com/news/military-documents-about...
  • post_from_work 5y ago
    I looked up Major Murphy using Marine Online's Locator: he shows up, with his place of work as the Office of Naval Research. My initial skim of the docs didn't raise any immediate red flags to me (things like poor adherence to Naval Correspondence standards for documents). Seems legit. Just my $0.02...
    • Kimcha 5y ago
      Have you read the actual documents? Most of it is Murphy’s unsubstantiated opinion. All the quotes in the video are from Murphy’s opinion and not from the leaked funding request documents. Nowhere in the documents is any proof that DARPA rejected the research due to gain of function concerns. All we know from the documents is that HealthAlliance requested funding to research and vaccinated bats. That’s it. Everything else is fan fiction by a soldier.
      • post_from_work 5y ago
        >>>Have you read the actual documents? Most of it is Murphy’s unsubstantiated opinion. His letter to the Inspector General lists reference documents. Even a cursory search via DDG yields some of them, which were covered on HN when they were released back in September ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28965770 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28965770 ). https://newsrescue.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/defuse-project-drastic-analysis-1.pdf https://newsrescue.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/defuse-pro... https://drasticresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/defuse-project-rejection-by-darpa.pdf https://drasticresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/defuse-p... https://drasticresearch.org/2021/09/21/the-defuse-project-documents/ https://drasticresearch.org/2021/09/21/the-defuse-project-do... >>>Nowhere in the documents is any proof that DARPA rejected the research due to gain of function concerns. Here's the rejection: https://drasticresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/hr00118s017-preempt-fp-019-pm-summary-selectable-not-recommended.pdf https://drasticresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/hr00118s... "The team discusses risk mitigation strategies to address potential risks of the research to public health and animal safety but does not mention or assess potential risks of Gain of Function (GoF) research and DURC. Given the team's approach does potentially involve GoF/DURC research (they aim to synthesize spike glycoproteins that may bind to human cell receptors and insert them into SARSsr-CoV backbones to assess capacity to cause SARS-like disease), if selected for funding an appropriate DURC risk mitigation plan should be incorporated into contracting language that includes a responsible communications plan." Major Murphy's letter also states: "When synthesized with the EcoHealth Alliance proposal, US collections confirm EcoHealth Alliance was performing the work proposed. The analysts produce their reports in a vacuum, absent the context the proposal provides. As a fellow at DARPA, I could see both, and can do the synthesis." Do you have access to the intelligence agency collections plans, and/or their analyst outputs? What information do you have that contradicts his statement that his conclusions are corroborated by Top Secret intel analysis? >>>Everything else is fan fiction by a soldier. Are you ready to retract that accusation?
• bsder 5y ago
  And we have research now that hypothesizes that Omicron incubated in mice and then jumped back to humans. If that hypothesis is true, then we have a fine example of something running in the background in a reservoir and then Hey, Presto! suddenly appearing to be mutated specifically for humans. If that's true, then all manner of "weird" things suddenly become both plausible and probable without any human intervention at all. As for "lab leak"--at this point all we can do is shrug. China will NEVER allow that to be investigated if there is even the slightest possibility of being true. Period. Full stop. Barring a whistleblower with hard evidence, we'll never know.
  • torstenvl 5y ago
    "If you find that [a government] has lost, destroyed, or failed to preserve any evidence whose contents or quality are material to the issues in this case, then you may draw an inference unfavorable to the [government]." West Virg. Jury Inst. 5.03
    • bsder 5y ago
      Okay. China created it. Now what? I have yet to see anyone explain what they would do with the result that is somehow beneficial. Does knowing this help fight it? Does it help stop it? Does it help treat it? Does it help stop the spread? Let's say China even INTENTIONALLY did it. Then what? You gonna invade China? Exactly how are you gonna make someone like Apple pull out of China when they should already be doing that NOW for other reasons? I regard the "lab leak hypothesis" like I regard news about celebrities--worthless and unactionable. It's simply a "boogeyman" to focus hate to create the "in group" and the "out group" for propaganda purposes.
      • torstenvl 5y ago
        You seem very convinced of your position. But there's a whole world of options in between "unactionable" and "invade China."
        • 5y ago
• KurzweilsThumb 5y ago
• xony 5y ago
• tonymet 5y ago
  Fool me once shame on you. Fool me 30 times , I'll keep on trusting you
• fumar 5y ago
  The connectedness of the earth's inhabitants including microscopic beings is in full effect and spotlighted by Covid. Regardless of where the Covid strain originated, we can't deny how closely linked every being on earth is. I ruminate on this known and cliche fact, but I struggle to pin point why. I know we are all connected and its obvious we share one planet. I know we all share distant relatives and descended from simpler earth-life eons ago. But living through the connectedness of Covid is both frightening and enlightening.
• marsven_422 5y ago
• partiallypro 5y ago
  What really raises the most suspicion of the lab leak theory in my mind was how the Chinese government acted towards the rest of the scientific community...well before it was a theory at all. Not allowing foreign scientists in, destroying evidence, arresting journalists, etc. That just screams cover-up, even if there was none (in terms of a lab leak.) Then Western scientists that rely on grants with Chinese ties, etc trying to cover the asses publicly, while privately saying it's possible...really doesn't inspire a lot of public confidence imo. There is a pretty big monetary incentive from the very people that we'd want to figure this out to say it didn't happen, even if it did.
  • dehrmann 5y ago
    It does feel like there hasn't been a proper airing of exactly what gain of function research has been going on (whether or not it led to this particular virus) and how governments have supported it. I suspect it's because, despite being a "hindsight is 2020" moment, a lot of people would be angry, and at a lot of public policy scientists involved in the response.
    • cudgy 5y ago
      Plenty of people had the hindsight in 2020 that the lab leak theory was not only plausible but likely; it’s disingenuous to call this “hindsight is 20/20”.
      • dehrmann 5y ago
        I meant that gain for function research looks like a really bad idea right now, even if that wasn't the origin of covid, and some of the public policy experts making recommendations right now were people who had no problems with game of function research 3 years ago.
        • rasz 5y ago
          It was never a good idea, thats why it was officially rejected and performed in secret, and why Fauci keeps lying.
• Jack000 5y ago
  This article is kind of self defeating - based on the article the scientists expressed uncertainty over the origins of covid, but the title is "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab" which seems to prove their point exactly? I don't know if this is common knowledge but there's an equal and opposite theory in China that covid came from the us. I just did a search for "covid us" on Baidu and this is the third result https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/114737709 https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/114737709 along with suggested search queries "Is the new crown virus caused by the United States?" "Is the new crown pneumonia a virus released by the United States?" (crown = omicron, I'm pretty sure) I think there is a real possibility that covid is a lab leak, but it's impossible to find the truth when everyone is eager to point the finger at (other ethnic group)
  • Sparyjerry 5y ago
    The story is more about how this was covered up which destroys any faith you had in our scientific leaders who are clearly making decisions base on their political goals, and not on the truth. It is the same way Dr. Fauci admitted to lying to the public about masks not working so that he could achieve his goal of having masks being saved for healthcare professionals. When your leaders are known to be lying to you, especially on something much bigger than even 9/11 or pearl harbor, this sparks the kind of outrage that should get those in charge fired. They by their own e-mails and admissions are lying about the science of the biggest event in our lifetime in order to achieve completely separate goals from science. Even if their goals are the most noble in their own eyes to serve as preventing international issues, it is still a disservice to every single scientist that is practicing with the goal of finding the truth. They are trying to act like the parents and that everyone else is the child. It's like those movies when they hide things from the public so as 'not to cause a panic,' but even worse as their hiding of the truth has resulted in censorship of actual science being researched, not to mention censorship on social media platforms.
    • Jack000 5y ago
      I'd agree if there's actual science being suppressed, but it seems to me there is none, just a lot of speculation and finger pointing without evidence on all sides. Despite the lack of solid evidence more than a quarter of Americans already believe in the lab leak theory. In this very article any private expression of uncertainty has been twisted to serve a political agenda. I would say that these scientists' concerns are well founded.
• sigstoat 5y ago
  are there any articles interviewing relevant staff from the wuhan lab, in the last 12 months? have they issued any statements?
  • option 5y ago
    Yes, they said it’s not them /s
• decebalus1 5y ago
  Dear HNers, please consult the post history of OPs account. It is a newish account which has been used daily to post controversial ideological and political flame baits, mostly related to COVID conspiracies, pandemic denialism and low-key misinformation.
  • useragent86 5y ago
    If I'm not mistaken, this comment of yours is itself a violation of HN guidelines.
    • jacquesm 5y ago
      https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29902131 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29902131
  • Jack000 5y ago
    welcome to the bottom of the page! You're in good company though, we have tea and snacks. Unfortunately HN users are not somehow special and immune to flame bait. This type of content would dominate the front page if it weren't manually down-weighed. Meanwhile, truly technically interesting projects like clip guided diffusion and GLIDE have zero coverage or discussion here. It's a shame but the larger the community the more topics tend toward the mean.
  • KevinMS 5y ago
    Can you explain why you think this telegraph article is part of a conspiracy theory?
• jimbob45 5y ago
  What happened was the best case scenario. China has highly plausible deniability and was the first and possibly hardest hit victim of the whole pandemic. Further, there is virtually no way China has benefited from the pandemic in a way that would make a premeditated leak plausible. If this thing was China’s fault, it seems most likely that it was accidental. Imagine if this thing had leaked out of Iran, Israel, or Russia with hardish proof. We’d potentially be looking at world war right now.
• Proven 5y ago
• throwawaysea 5y ago
  I’m curious if anyone has investigated the recent leaks from Project Veritas (https://www.projectveritas.com/news/military-documents-about-gain-of-function-contradict-fauci-testimony-under/ https://www.projectveritas.com/news/military-documents-about...). It suggests once again, that the NIH/NIAID grant to EcoHealth Alliance was in support of gain of function research at WIV involving SARS-like viruses. As a reminder, EcoHealth Alliance’s president, Peter Daszak, is a listed author on various WIV papers that explicitly describe gain of function research, and was suspiciously chosen by the WHO as the only US representative in the WHO’s visit to WIV in early 2021. From this new leak of documents, DARPA’s rejection of the NIH proposal (https://assets.ctfassets.net/syq3snmxclc9/5OjsrkkXHfuHps6Lek1MO0/5e7a0d86d5d67e8d153555400d9dcd17/defuse-project-rejection-by-darpa.pdf https://assets.ctfassets.net/syq3snmxclc9/5OjsrkkXHfuHps6Lek...) specifically calls out that the proposed NIH research seems to be Gain of Function but the proposal doesn’t admit it (DARPA is effectively accusing the NIH of falsely describing their research). This is exactly what Professor Ebright previously accused NIH and NIAID of, which is systematically avoiding the frameworks meant to prevent dangerous GoF research (https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/03/26/how-anthony-fauci-systematically-thwarted-the-pause-in-us-gain-of-function-research-an-interview-with-dr-richard-h-ebright/ https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/03/26/how-anthony-fauci-sy...). And it is also what Senator Rand Paul, among others, accused Dr Fauci of in past senate hearings.
  • swader999 5y ago
    If true, this would be insane. Covering up the leak, hiding early treatments, killing millions of us. And I'm not implicating CCP in this, those docs point to USA origination. At the moment I feel like it all just fits too easily. So skeptical about whether or not it's a convenient plant.
    • throwawaysea 5y ago
      Some of the previously identified papers listing Peter Daszak as an author were already damning, as they explicitly describe creating infectious clones of SARS-like (SL) viruses that can spread easily (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4936131/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4936131/). The related grants are all still searchable and listed on the official government websites: > Recently, another bat SL-CoV strain, SHC014, has been demonstrated to use human ACE2 by the construction of an infectious cDNA clone (12). Furthermore, animal infection experiments indicated that SL-CoV WIV1 and SHC014 could replicate efficiently and caused low pathogenesis in ACE2 transgenic mice (12, 13). The fact that the native bat SL-CoVs could use human ACE2 without any mutations indicates a high risk of interspecies transmission for these and similar coronaviruses that may exist in natural reservoirs. I am not sure how Fauci has managed to avoid accountability so far - I guess his aggressive behavior at Senate hearings has worked. But this new leak suggests that another government agency (DARPA) also accused the NIH/NIAID of conducting gain of function research in violation of the law and in violation of basic ethics, all using taxpayer money. If true and not a plant, it might just be enough to break through the lack of attention around this.
• option 5y ago
  I highly recommend the book “Viral” by Chan and Ridley to anyone curious about this pandemic’s origin.
• chx 5y ago
  I think the clearest article on topic is from Zeynep Tufekci https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/opinion/coronavirus-lab.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/opinion/coronavirus-lab.h... who says , repeatedly what we do not know and what is disturbing.
  • pelario 5y ago
    Somebody in HN recommended Zeynep Tufekci for covid coverage, and I'm really thankful for that, as IMO is quality scientific journalism.
  • jdthedisciple 5y ago
    If only it wasn't behind a paywall :(
    • ggsp 5y ago
      https://archive.is/V0ERz https://archive.is/V0ERz
  • ricardobeat 5y ago
    https://archive.md/V0ERz https://archive.md/V0ERz
  • synquid 5y ago
    Zeynep has been wrong so many times during the pandemic that it hurts. She will not admit to it, though. She claimed that the Delta variant would end the pandemic, in the same way it is claimed for Omicron now. She's very naive about how the immune system works. Her writing is generally more propaganda than science.
    • p49k 5y ago
      > She claimed that the Delta variant would end the pandemic No she didn't - the article you're referring to is below, and what she said was more nuanced. It's also a reasonable analysis from the perspective of the time it was written (May 2021): https://www.theinsight.org/p/we-need-to-get-real-about-how-the https://www.theinsight.org/p/we-need-to-get-real-about-how-t...
• TheProbes 5y ago
  The "Torygraph"? This newspaper has always been shrill semi-Fox News tripe.
• malwarebytess 5y ago
  You know what hurt more? The divide that sprouted from the obfuscation of the truth and its pursuit.
• vasco 5y ago
  You know this effect, when you've been reading the news for years, and finally your favorite source has a story about something you studied or worked on, and you realize how low quality or outright wrong it is? The spell is broken and you realize how little they know about anything they write. Once government officials and scientists gaslight us about what they think they should, how does one know they wouldn't for anything at all they decide to? These people have done a huge disservice to society - and the harm in increase of conspiracy theorists is likely helped by their contribution in hiding this information.
  • zaji 5y ago
    Yeah, the line in there about how "debate on such accusations will cause the voices of conspiracy to dominate, doing great potential harm to science and international harmony.", to paraphrase, almost made me laugh out loud. Do they really not see the glaring irony there? They are creating the voices of conspiracy all on their own by hiding that information. They are the ones doing harm to science and international harmony.
  • staplers 5y ago
    Getting into crypto around 2012 dramatically highlighted this for me. Many in here still regurgitate the same talking points I saw published then.
    • oblio 5y ago
      Could you list a few of those, please?
      • ls15 5y ago
        It even correlates with the price. https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/ https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/ If you would remove the dates and the prices, I would not be able to tell the age of most of these headlines.
        • midasuni 5y ago
• beebmam 5y ago
  So, did it leak from a Chinese lab? If so, why isn't China being held economically and ethically liable? Why do they continue stonewalling any investigation and suffer zero consequences?
  • kennywinker 5y ago
    On one hand, China hasn’t faced ethical or economic consequences for literal concentration camps so why would this be different? On the other hand - would you really seek to punish an entire nation for the (supposed) actions of a few careless scientists?
    • krageon 5y ago
      > literal concentration camps I've seen this repeated hundreds of times, approximately 0 times with proof. Can I find these camps somewhere? Are there photos? As it stands, a casual reader must conclude this is part of a propaganda campaign vilifying China.
      • kennywinker 5y ago
        I didn’t think I had to cite sources, since it’s been incredibly well covered but if you want to get started down a dark road here’s a link to the top hit on duckduckgo https://nypost.com/2020/08/28/chinas-260-concentration-camps-are-proof-of-pure-evil/ https://nypost.com/2020/08/28/chinas-260-concentration-camps... The general lack of action by governments and corporations means a casual reader must conclude nobody with any power cares, since they’re all getting rich off china.
        • iqanq 5y ago
          That article doesn't say much to me. They've found... buildings? And how do they know what goes on in them?
          • krageon 5y ago
            It's mostly witness accounts from people they claim have been in there, frequently people the Chinese government says are terrorists. There's a natural friction there which makes it clear that there's definitely a group unhappy with the Chinese government (and vice-versa), but it's very hard to not just devolve into outrage porn while looking around for what goes on.
• tunesmith 5y ago
  I feel like it was impossible to really deal with this debate responsibly, what with the current state of society and social media where everyone has figured out how to weaponize false information, before we as a society have figured out how to really deal with it. Even now it seems like everyone wants to elide the massive differences between "accidental lab leak" and "deliberate lab leak". Even now the common phrase is "lab leak" which can be taken either way. But if you ask anyone on twitter or facebook what "lab leak" means, but especially at the beginning of the pandemic, they would have immediately jumped to a deliberate bioterror attack scenario and there would have been no way to stop it. And we already had a surge of asian hate with what we dealt with.
  • zpeti 5y ago
    > I feel like it was impossible to really deal with this debate responsibly, what with the current state of society and social media where everyone has figured out how to weaponize false information So, the solution to this is lying. Right. That will make everything better. Oh and also make fact checkers tell people the truth is false information. FACT checkers. Yes. That will increase trust. Sure.
    • frockington1 5y ago
      Fact checkers have determined this statement to be mostly false. While fact checkers have been proven over and over to be incorrect, we find the sarcastic tone of this post to be dangerous and have therefor decided the entire thing is false
  • fileeditview 5y ago
    Concealing all kinds of information to "protect" the sheep-like citizens is counterproductive and dishonest. An honest discussion is the best way to avoid spreading of false information which will always exist to some degree. However politicians more and more try to avoid all discussion with the voters and just convince them of the rightfulness of their doing. If you don't accept their way you must be wrong, maybe even protected from false information, shielded for your own good..
• khazhoux 5y ago
  Jon Stewart's take is brilliant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSfejgwbDQ8&t=170s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSfejgwbDQ8&t=170s > "The name of the disease is printed on the lab's business cards!!" But the reason the Left in the US couldn't even consider Wuhan as the source, is because the Right (well, Trump himself) wanted to say that because it was "China's fault", that his Administration bore no responsibility for dealing with it.
  • minerva23 5y ago
    Doesn't it make sense to establish a lab near a source of what you're studying? You don't establish a tropical botany lab in Antarctica. Left/right (false binary) politics aside, doesn't it make sense to focus on finding a solution prior to focusing on prevention/blame?
    • klabb3 5y ago
      If by near, you mean the same continent, then yes. The candidate bat caves for the zoonotic origins of sars-cov-2 are spread out over east and southeast Asia, and are nowhere near Wuhan. The lab received funding from the US, and GoF research happens all over the world, so the China bad narrative overlaps quite poorly with the lab leak theory. The proper reaction to the lab leak theory would be more along the lines of reconsidering the cost-benefit analysis on gain of function research, where a single leak can lead to tens of millions dead and perhaps more next time. > doesn't it make sense to focus on finding a solution prior to focusing on prevention/blame? Why not both? One reason to hurry the hell up is that evidence may be destroyed and the people who know something may be silenced or disappeared.
• Borrible 5y ago
  I don't know to what extent the China Daily News, apparently a Chinese communist propaganda outlet[0], can be considered a reliable source in 2004, but back in the day the folks in Bejing seemed to be a bit peeved about their lab minions with regards to the first SARS epidemic. http://web.archive.org/web/20040703130948/https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-07/02/content_344755.htm http://web.archive.org/web/20040703130948/https://www.chinad... And it weren't just the Chinese with a rather sloppy lab security, it seems. https://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/CDS_CSR_ARO_2004_2.pdf?ua=1 https://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/CDS_CSR_ARO_2... Better times back then. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Daily https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Daily
• kevinfat 5y ago
  So for anyone reading this and seeing other comments about gain of function. The first thing you should realize is that the people here commenting about gain of function have no idea what they are talking about. They are completely clueless about micro biology and have never read any of the published papers that were labeled gain of function. For someone naive you would get the impression from the news that the research was a slam dunk obvious case of gain of function. But if you know some biology and actually looked at the papers then you know this really fuzzy and ambiguous and really does depend on how you define "gain of function".
• dash2 5y ago
  It’s hard to believe how bad this is. Not the lab leak theory itself, but the fact that scientists found it plausible that a scientific mistake released an epidemic which killed 20m people – and decided they should cover this up because “talking about it might harm science“. This is truly scandalous, and I don’t see how those people can remain in their post.
  • mandmandam 5y ago
    Let's not forget the media's role in selectively amplifying and smearing scientists. Or government's role setting the agenda (and bungling the response horrifically while putting all the blame on political opposition and the unvaccinated). Or FB and Twitter's role in deleting millions of posts re the mere possibility of a lab leak. Or various health organization's roles watching all this and saying nothing. ... Looking at all this - is it time to reexamine some other major incidents in the last 20.75 years?
  • kklisura 5y ago
    I find that behaviour more dangerous than any other anti-science or anti-vax movements. That behaviour degrades the public trust in institutions, in science and in scientists. It will breed even more anti-science and anti-vax people for years to come.
    • xeyownt 5y ago
      Conspiracy theory at its best. Self-amplifying narrative. Congratulation.
    • hunterb123 5y ago
      Can we stop with the anti-vax crap? I haven't met a single person who is hesitant of traditional vaccines. The anti-vaxxer crowd is still as small as it once was, loonies in Oregon and other places that cause an occasional Measles outbreak. Being hesitant of unknown longterm effects of mRNA vaccines is reasonable and is not "anti-science" or "anti-vax". But yes, lying about what you think caused millions of deaths because you're scared of the support the CCP has is pretty high up there on the fucked up meter. Maybe Facebook and Twitter will let us talk about it now.
• gadders 5y ago
  Trust the science, yeah, but don't necessarily trust scientists. They're people, same as anyone else.
• randomsearch 5y ago
  I have mixed feelings about this, and I certainly think it’s not as clear cut as HN is converging on, although I share the same instincts. On the one hand, yes, science should be completely open and unhindered by geopolitics. But recall that Trump was in the White House at the time. We are a community of generally highly educated nerds with a strong understanding of science and engineering. We understand that all labs will have leaks, we often have first hand experience of the difficulty of making any system truly secure. We’re also probably not interested in making big political gains from this - rather our discussion might be “omg that’s terrible what went wrong and how do we prevent it from happening again.” But Trump, his party, and many many people in the West would care only for the political capital they could make from it, with potentially catastrophic results that would make COVID look relatively minor. At a time when a global pandemic requires international cooperation and focus, these decisions are very very difficult and we shouldn’t be too hasty to judge.
  • raxxorrax 5y ago
    Trump is irrelevant here, in fact I believe a lot of people voting for him out of spite because they felt they had been lied to by the other party. You will not improve the situation with more paternalism. That is has degraded to "owning the libs" is a predictable result. Yes, people jump to conclusion, but if you want to build a society of trust, you let some people jump. Others will hit the breaks if no conclusive information is available. Trump is not an excuse to withhold information at all. You have to make sure that the uncertainty of the information is clearly communicated. > we shouldn’t be too hasty to judge. You do judge yourself at the time you withhold information because you declared people incapable to making the same judgement.
    • KingOfCoders 5y ago
      • Tenoke 5y ago
        This is the kind of extremely simplistic view one holds if they only get their news via The Daily Show or are in a massive echo chamber that tells them their opponents are cartoon villains. Such events are rarely so conveniently mono-causal and it should be easy to disprove for yourself if you weren't just looking for a convenient narrative given that Trump had significant minority vote (30-38% of Hispanics, Asian and other ethnicities).
• nathias 5y ago
  I can't believe how stupid these people are.
• jacquesm 5y ago
  If this comment thread is the way the self proclaimed smartest forum on the web deals with articles like this then we're doomed. This article contributes zero actual evidence, is littered with out of context quotes (including of all places the title), doesn't appear to understand the science or the probabilities involved and finally is clearly written with an agenda. It shouldn't have been posted to HN in the first place, it just serves to divide, not to find fact. If there is an article that deals with the actual evidence available in a neutral manner it would be nice to read, but opinion-masquerading-as-fact is not.
  • enraged_camel 5y ago
    I’m with you. 300+ comments as of this writing and most of the top ones are shitting on scientists and science in general…
  • secretsatan 5y ago
    And it's in the Telegraph
  • te_chris 5y ago
    The telegraph is a mix of fox news and the daily mail, but with plummy vowels [0] [0] https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/plummy https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/plummy
  • brigandish 5y ago
    What would that evidence look like? The House Committee on Oversight and Reform have a press release with more detail[1], which the Telegraph mentions - it's how I found it - and you can download a pdf which contains the partially redacted emails. It doesn't seem to me that the Telegraph has misled anyone regarding this news at all. Perhaps you could read it and be more precise as to where you think they're providing slant, or even lies, if that's what you think. [1] https://republicans-oversight.house.gov/release/comer-jordan-faucis-emails-raise-questions-of-lab-leak-cover-up/ https://republicans-oversight.house.gov/release/comer-jordan...
    • 5y ago
• JimWestergren 5y ago
  Related interesting info, well worth a read: https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/ https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-peop...
• say_it_as_it_is 5y ago
  The science community played ball because government pays their checks. The problem they were trying to avoid is unemployment. You can't hold it against them for protecting their fundamental interests. They were acting so as to protect science only to the extent that people would no longer be able to receive funding for being honest with the public.
  • minerva23 5y ago
    I think many don't fear unemployment, they fear loss of access (funding). Science isn't cheap. Proper facilities are important. Good virologists may not be independently wealthy (and they need good colleagues). I'm sure many would continue their work unemployed, but that too would be part of the fear. If a leak can happen in a BSL4 facility and you know some would rather continue their work in their basement than give it up entirely, that alone should terrify you/everyone.
• bArray 5y ago
  > But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”. COVID-19: the time where Scientists pretended to be politicians and politicians pretended to be Scientists. Also if their intention was to not hurt China, we now see one of the largest decentralisation efforts away from Chinese manufacturing we have seen in quite some time. Any future outsourced research to China will be under extreme scrutiny. > Later emails showed that by February 4, Sir Jeremy had revised his estimate of a laboratory leak to 50:50, while Professor Eddie Holmes, of the University of Sydney, gave a 60:40 estimate in favour of an accidental release. When you consider how the CCP and all staff involved have behaved, the odds appear higher. You have a major opportunity to show openness and lack of wrongdoing - and yet choose to act closed and actively prevent investigations. > An email from Dr Ron Fouchier to Sir Jeremy said: “Further debate about such accusations would unnecessarily distract top researchers from their active duties and do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular.” Unnecessary harm? If it was as a result of a lab leak, it would be completely necessary harm. For all we know, COVID-X is just around the corner. Bare in mind many labs around the world have been processing COVID samples and performing experiments on it in order to figure out how it may mutate.
  • jacquesm 5y ago
    > For all we know, COVID-X is just around the corner. Not necessarily Coronavirus based, but the next jump from one species to another of some pathogen (viral, bacterial) is pretty much a certainty. And with the amount of habitat destruction and bushmeat/wetmarkets we are increasing the odds of it happening soon considerably. The last three decades have seen an ever increasing number of such events each of which has the potential to trigger a pandemic like this one, a milder one or one that is much worse.
    • tim333 5y ago
      Talking about COVID-X EcoHealth Alliance who were enthusing about Covid gain of function research also wanted to much around with MERS, a virus that kills 30% of humans rather than the namby pamby Covid with its mediocre 1%. Another reason why I feel this stuff should be investigated properly https://mobile.twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1432007464392794118 https://mobile.twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/143200746439279411...
• krsdcbl 5y ago
  Stumbled upon this thread on a related post here on hn and had to come to the conclusion that apparently news outlets are currently picking up some out of context details that seem to have long be debunked: https://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-origin-of-ncov2019/384 https://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-or... Does anybody have further reading on this subject?
• mcflibbles 5y ago
  The scientist in question believes there is a 50% chance of it being a lab leak, according to the article text (down a bit from their initial estimate). The scientists didn't believe focusing on a debate over this possibility was worthwhile, knowing many would focus on this possibility instead of discussing actual action. Just as predicted, Trump, Fox, and the UK equivalent, the Telegraph, duly focus on the possibility of a lab leak and consistently argue against action. They say over and over again it will soon be over, it won't really do much harm, etc. Trump, Fox and the Telegraph are consistently proved wrong over and over again. Hacker news libertarian crypto idiots lap it up, and literally use the word "sheeple" to discuss everyone who's not part of their bizarre cult.
  • klabb3 5y ago
    The problem with lying isn't that your lie won't work, it will work to some extent. Heck it can even do good! I'm sure in this case it did turn down the temperature momentarily, which may or may not have been good, depending on who you ask. But no, the real problem is that lying spends trust very quickly, trust that you need later, for instance when there is a vaccine on the horizon. Most humans have a baked in BS detector, that stops taking repeat liars seriously. This is a good thing.
• deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
• necovek 5y ago
  I find it important to note that "believed" suggests that their beliefs were based on as-of-yet insubstantial data to prove this was the case. Not that this really stopped this hypothesis from being explored in the public (even people like Trump jumped on it). The way social media works today, I find it reasonable not to share all of your beliefs without gathering enough proof to either prove or disprove something. I completely believe in open debate, but that's not what modern media provides: it usually goes for the most sensationalist angle it can get. And it leads to overarching reactions from the public when none is needed.
• brigandish 5y ago
  Did anyone else enjoy the irony of a group of scientists engaging in a conspiracy (of silence) in order to stop conspiracy theorists dominating a conversation about a probable (in their own eyes!) conspiracy? You couldn't make it up.
• godmode2019 5y ago
  An interesting tidbit. The image of Wuhan on the map in the article shows WIV down the road across the river from the wet market. Something that gets zero screen time is the Chinese CDC is literary across the road from the wet market. They have since moved / unlisted that address. This does not mean a lab leak, but its a weird thing to be left out of the conversion.
  • mandmandam 5y ago
    > the Chinese CDC is literary across the road from the wet market I would looove a source on that, please. Can't find anything with a quick search and haven't heard that before.
    • godmode2019 5y ago
      I can read Chinese and saw it on a Chinese map at the start of the pandemic, when I was looking at the huanan wet market. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Center_For_Disease_Control_%26_Prevention https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Center_For_Disease_Con... No. 288, Machang Road, Jianghan District, Wuhan If you duckduckgo the address you can see a bunch of academic papers listing that as the address. Its not controversial. Just no one has ever brought it up. Only media that reported on it was this https://nypost.com/2021/08/13/who-scientist-eyes-on-wuhan-lab-that-moved-before-pandemic/ https://nypost.com/2021/08/13/who-scientist-eyes-on-wuhan-la... Again, this doesn't prove a lab leak. But its a weird fact to leave out of public discourse.
      • mandmandam 5y ago
        > its a weird fact to leave out of public discourse It surely is. Thanks for getting back to me, appreciate it.
• pelasaco 5y ago
  Probably when Trump started to brag about it, saying that "he knew" it came from China, he was leaking some CIA information that he couldn't talk about it. Unfortunately it transformed the issue in a political issue and therefore people couldn't talk freely about it without the risk to be canceled.
  • deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
• biscotte_ 5y ago
• pelasaco 5y ago
  relevant other sources https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27367394 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27367394 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K78jqx9fx2I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K78jqx9fx2I
• scotty79 5y ago
  I wonder if having additional two years worth of data changed their mind. We see how easily this virus mutates. Recent research indicates that Omicron evolved for some time in mice without breaking out back into human population. Natural origin is way more playsible than ww thought in February of 2020.
  • throw8932894 5y ago
    This "natural" origin theories kind of sound like conspiracy. Bats, mice, lemurs.. Somehow wildly different DNA parts combine, and virus perfectly adapted for human population emerges from cave with zero prior human contact... If Omicron evolved in mice, we should be able to find it in wild mice population. Or maybe partially replicate its evolution in lab on mice population. We know virus synthesis is possible, it is accessible even to small national governments, universities and research centers. But mainstream agrees there is ZERO chance of that happening. Nobody would invest couple of million dollars, to end pandemic once for all.
    • scotty79 5y ago
      Not all mice, some mice, somewhere. This virus in the form we encountered, spreads among humans best, but it also can spread between a ton of other animals. Most probable explanation is that it originated from civets (second best) and infected a single person with immunity sufficient to suppress it but insufficient to eradicate it. In this person it multiplied and mutated learning how to infect human cells best and finally one mutation allowed it to skip to another person. And then it spread like wildfire because it was already adapted to humans because it mutated in one human for months or years already and just learned how to overcome immune suppression enough to break through.
      • throw8932894 5y ago
        It stayed in single person for months, and somehow it got more infectious in this person, without infecting anyone. It is perfectly adapted to stain airborne and pass lungs, but it gained that inside person! And it only gained mutations related to higher infection rate and severity, nothing else, no other random changes. Omicron DNA was "forked" in July 2020. It was not detected until now, when it spread like wild fire. Unless we find missing links in nature, I find natural origin very unlikely.
• forgotmypw17 5y ago
  This continues the trend of most* "conspiracy theories" proving to be true 6-12 months after they are dismissed by the mainstream. Excepting completely ridiculous ones, but even those sound more and more plausible with every confirmation.
  • tim333 5y ago
    I don't think pizzagate is doing well. The thing is a Wuhan lab leak never really was a conspiracy theory. Theorizing a bat coronavirus may have come from the nearest known source of bat coronaviruses doesn't really require much conspiracy.
• zNHQYj4nlJx09Fj 5y ago
• mads 5y ago
  Somewhere inside a document somewhere there is going to be a forgotten cursor.
• Wolfenstein98k 5y ago
  Unforgiveable.
• deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
• EMM_386 5y ago
  https://twitter.com/BillyBostickson/status/1481193800072835079 https://twitter.com/BillyBostickson/status/14811938000728350...
• mrtri 5y ago
• sebow 5y ago
  People often forget what entity coined and pushed the term conspiracy theory.They only see the word in mass-media attached to individuals or groups and take it for granted. Even if theories said by 'legitimate'(/actual) conspiracy groups are false, that doesn't mean we're so quick to dismiss a discussion about it.Often the discussion itself is more important about the truth discussed, and in some cases people quickly change their minds when presented facts.Same goes in reverse: you cannot call someone a conspiracy-nut when you cannot disprove his claims and more over his claims gradually become accepted by society. This is why the general public has issues with such persons or such big claims: they are not capable(or willing) of thinking some people are capable of such malice, and they're willing to dismiss even a discussion because: 1.it's uncomfortable; 2.the truth is hard to reach; both unreasonable arguments to shutdown a discussion, let alone charge someone (which in US this apparently has re-surfaced). A society becoming so intolerable of listening to such people is the first symptom of societal collapse.You can call this a conspiracy, or just check a history book. The difference is that we can somewhat verify information more quickly now, as long as people keep their innate filter on and stop consuming garbage.
• edumucelli 5y ago
  I have read this (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-...) about the origins of Covid and one phrase that called my attention was: "Dr. Richard Ebright, board of governors professor of chemistry and chemical biology at Rutgers University, said that from the very first reports of a novel bat-related coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, it took him “a nanosecond or a picosecond” to consider a link to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Only two other labs in the world, in Galveston, Texas, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina, were doing similar research. “It’s not a dozen cities,” he said. “It’s three places.”"
  • KingOfCoders 5y ago
    I don't know who is right. A lab that does bat related research and is located where bats have traditionally shown these viruses, it's hard to determine cause and effect. "When I first heard about the Arctic, I thought about that Arctic ice research institute in a nano second. There are only two places. There are not a dozen places, it's two places."
    • tim333 5y ago
      >A lab that does bat related research and is located where bats have traditionally shown these viruses But it isn't - the bats carrying coronaviruses live 600+ miles away. Wuhan was actually used as a control in a paper on bat coronaviruses as a population that wasn't exposed to them.
      • KingOfCoders 5y ago
        Ah didn't know, do you have a map with all the bat viruses say last 20 years in the wild + Wuhan? Couldn't find one, perhaps I don't have the right Google keywords.
• morelandjs 5y ago
  It’s interesting to think about this from a Bayesian perspective. What is the posterior probability we expect the virus to have originated from a Wuhan lab, given the outbreak happened in Wuhan?
• minusSeven 5y ago
  So what makes it so difficult to prove that a virus is not naturally occurring? Because that would be the starting point to all this and without proof this would continue to be theory without any actually basis and point.
• sgdjgkeirj 5y ago
  The New Yorker article gives a much more detailed look at the evidence for both natural origins and lab leak. “ The Mysterious Case of the COVID-19 Lab-Leak Theory” https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/the-mysterious-case-of-the-covid-19-lab-leak-theory https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/the-mysterious-ca...
• agumonkey 5y ago
  That's why science cannot lead. Scientific truth is not political governance .. human groups live in relativism and noise.
• LatteLazy 5y ago
  You can't disprove the existence of unicorns. But that doesn't mean they exist or we should discuss the matter or make decisions based on them being real.
• tilolebo 5y ago
  The people in charge of the investigation should be totally independent from these scientists. That would otherwise be an obvious conflict of interest. Hopefully they will be as independent as the credit rating agencies are from the financial institutions they evaluate...
• callmeal 5y ago
  Might be a good time to remember the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect: “Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray [Gell-Mann]'s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them. In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.”
• throwawaymanbot 5y ago
• deviantbit 5y ago
  In America, the president placed tariffs and sanctions on China. The opposing political party then tried to remove him from office twice. There was an erroneous political hit job made by the losing candidate, spreading misinformation about the president's ties to Russia. Then a virus appears, just blocks from a Research Institute that researches the very type of virus that is now in the wild. Our leaders initially told us masks were not necessary, and that closing the borders would be bad for combating the virus. Police in Australia are beating people in parks for not wearing masks with clubs. Our leaders fired the very people we need to operate our supply chain for not being vaccinated. Call it conspiracy, but you don't read novels like this. “Tis strange,-but true; for truth is always strange; Stranger than fiction: if it could be told, How much would novels gain by the exchange! How differently the world would men behold!” -Lord Byron
• throway453sde 5y ago
  PaulGraham hypothesized this way earlier in a tweet. But the important realization to me was that not all riches are the same. Not all rich people have access to the most important information. Certainly being rich in tech sector is powerful.
• TsukiZombina 5y ago
  Feb 2020
• dekhn 5y ago
  My only two thoughts on this: Think of the consequences of finding slam-dunk evidence that a government was aware of, led to, and covered up the creation of a world-impacting virus. Either intentionally, or unintentionally. Think of the consequences of suggesting so without slam-dunk data. I figure that's the calculus that went through leaders minds. I just didn't like it when early on, people suggested reasonable if improbable (given the lack of high quality data) hypotheses, and major journals published opinions/letters saying "if you think this, you are a conspiracy theorist". talk about framing a debate!
• benpiper 5y ago
  The headline should be: "Everyone asking if this could have been created in a lab was ignored or ridiculed in 2020 by the same scientists who now look like complete buffoons"
• sandstrom 5y ago
  Some believe that Omicron (yes, the mutation) may be a leak from a lab that was doing research on the original version of Covid. https://bprice.substack.com/p/lab-leak-20 https://bprice.substack.com/p/lab-leak-20 It's an interesting read. Author puts forward a few arguments for why this may be the case (more research needed, of course, but pretty compelling in my view).
• bioinformatics 5y ago
  Wimps.
• stjohnswarts 5y ago
  These article is full of “this one scientist did something” and extrapolate it to “all western scientists are bad and holding out information” without considering those same scientists didn't think it was plausible. You can't take one scientist's belief and extrapolate to all scientists. The person who wrote this article is just trying to do this for shock value.
• id02009 5y ago
  would hurt... their careers. I presume.