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Tesla’s success in Europe catches industry off guard

404 points by prostoalex 7y ago

CydeWeys 7y ago
The same thing is happening to traditional automobile manufacturers now as what happened to the likes of Kodak and Xerox when the digital revolution came. They'll deny that the change is happening until it's way too late, and then become obsolete. Even when any outsider can look at the industry and say it's obvious that the future is electric and any manufacturer that hasn't already seriously dived into making EVs is being stupid. And yet, here we are ...
- esturk 7y ago
  The tragic part is there were probably employees pushing for change but management must've smothered them like a dying patient with a pillow.
  - quickthrower2 7y ago
    Why take risks where you can fail when you are getting paid a fat check every month. It’s a “no one was fired for keeping the company running” kind of thing.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  GM has announced what, 22 EVs in the next couple years? I don't think they're in any danger of becoming obsolete due to Tesla. If anything, Tesla should be getting worried. When competition heats up people will start caring more about reliability, features, and looks.
  - intopieces 7y ago
    Did GM announce a charging network? Most people may be able to charge at home, but they also want peace of mind the 1 time a year they travel on a road trip. I picked Tesla for my next EV because of the charging stations. Level 2 and even CHAdeMO and CCS are just too slow, and there’s not enough of the latter two.
    - bradlys 7y ago
      I don't think the vast majority are buying electric cars with it being their only vehicle. Aren't 80% of Tesla owners also homeowners? Likely living with a spouse, who has a non electric car for those longer road trips. And maybe a Tesla owner uses the Tesla network for road trips but I think the majority of electric owners without a network have a gas car too. Even then, I think those buying an electric can afford air travel.
      - deleted 7y ago
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    - rootusrootus 7y ago
      As I recall, the largest DC fast charging network is no longer Tesla's, and that will only accelerate over the next couple years. I'm hoping that soon Tesla will make an adapter available so I can use that network too.
      - CydeWeys 7y ago
        Source? Last time I saw this claim, it was some manufacturer that was also compatible with Tesla's charging infrastructure, and including Tesla's own network as part of its claim.
        intopieces 7y ago
        EVGo is the nation's largest provider of DC fast charging. It has 800 stations to Tesla's 443. Tesla can use EVGo and L2 stations through ChargePoint. But, EVGo usually has 1-2 chargers per station, whereas Tesla has 10-30. Tesla's onboard computer routes to the Tesla stations and prepares the battery to be charged, something that I haven't seen in other EVs.
  - pmorici 7y ago
    I would be surprised if GM has more models available than Tesla in the US at any point in the next 5 years. Tesla will have 7 once all the currently announced models are in production.
  - virgilp 7y ago
    Lots of companies rushed smartphones after the iPhone; like GM with EVs, Nokia also was the inventor/original smartphone producer.. in fact, it was more advanced in the field than GM is with the EV. Yet here we are, with Nokia being a shadow of its former self. I wouldn't be so quick to claim "Tesla should be worried" - Tesla should only be worried about its own execution, and should be ignoring competition altogether (which I think they do).
  - Dumblydorr 7y ago
    Everything you mentioned is dependent on them rolling out EVs in volume reliably, which is probably going to take another 5 years. Meanwhile, Tesla's vehicles have a massive lead on efficiency, range, brand, and performance. GM simply makes lackluster vehicles and I dont see their quality improving to rival Tesla or its huge tech lead.
  - koffiezet 7y ago
    > Tesla should be getting worried I'm not exactly a Tesla fan, I think their cars are pretty bland, certainly the interior is pretty spartan for the price you're paying, and I'm not convinced of the entire infotainment system/massive screen in the middle. But... Other manufacturers allowed Tesla to become an established brand, and right now if you tell someone you have an electric car, their response will be "oh a Tesla?" 9 out of 10. On top of that, Tesla is learning quality/finish faster than other manufacturers are learning how to mass produce electric cars properly. The newer model 3 from one colleague is miles ahead build-quality-wise of the one from another, who got one of the first to arrive in Europe. And lastly, Tesla has a massive head-start in battery production capacity, and I would not be surprised if they'd start selling batteries to other manufacturers soon. Battery supply chains are currently the limiting factors for many car models (the Hyundai Ioniq has a massive waiting list for this exact reason for example). Most classic car brands also give priority to direct battery supply towards their more mass-market lineup where they're now offering hybrid solutions. They can make what - 10 hybrid cars with the same amount of batteries it takes to make a single-electric-one? Choosing between selling 1 or 10 cars limited by a strained supply chain is an easy choice. Sure they'll offer electric versions for a premium, but the hybrid-ones are the ones they're really producing and driving sales.
georgeecollins 7y ago
Leaving aside (and I know this hard) the controversy of Tesla's valuation, Elon Musk and the environmental virtues of electric cars, think what a historic success Tesla is as a car company. There have been dozen(s) of car companies started in the US since WW2 and you could argue that not one of them has been a success. The biggest Kaiser Motors, has probably been surpassed. For decades American and Japanese manufacturers have tried to compete with European luxury brands. American companies had almost no success and Japanese very little. Lexus does well, but it never displaced German car sales the way Tesla is now. I am not a Tesla fanboy, but I do like cars. You have to respect the product.
- jessriedel 7y ago
  In a recent podcast interview, Musk claims there have been thousands of new (EDIT: American) consumer car companies and that every single one has failed besides Tesla (if I recall correctly). Presumably this counts every incorporated team that made a rudimentary prototype.
  - aantix 7y ago
    Do you remember the podcast?
    - jessriedel 7y ago
      Third Row. Can't remember if it was part 1 or 2, but probably 2. It's very fanboyish, but there are some good stories on there about the early days of SpaceX and Tesla.
  - baybal2 7y ago
    BYD - been around for an eternity by silicon valley standards, few other genuinely new Chinese brands (ones which are not subsidiaries of BAIC or FAW,) Vinfast, Peroda
    - jessriedel 7y ago
      Sorry, I forgot to mention he specified American.
neonate 7y ago
https://archive.md/TULea https://archive.md/TULea
- deleted 7y ago
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w-m 7y ago
Tesla seems to be somewhat ahead in technology - their range is currently higher than in the Porsches/Audis/... and the software seems quite a bit more advanced. Tesla can use this to their advantage to sell more cars while the traditional automakers play catchup. But eventually they will get closer. And Volkswagen alone can introduce dozens of new models every year, based on their building blocks (MEB) and numerous brands. There will be cars this year from 15.000€ (VW e.Up and friends) to 150.000€ (Porsche Taycan), and a few others in between. VW alone plans to introduce 70 electric models in the coming years. How will Tesla, who did 4 models in ten years, compete with the sheer breadth of this market? Looking at what’s parked in the street, people choose lots of different types of cars, there’s no one-fits-all.
- btian 7y ago
  How about VW make one model that is competitive in terms of specs and price with Tesla, then we can talk about 70 or 700 models.
  - imtringued 7y ago
    I'm not in the market for a Tesla and I will probably never be even though I am very interested in EVs.
- magicalhippo 7y ago
  From what I read, Audi and Jaguar could have made a lot more cars but can't get enough batteries. The new e-Tron has been a big hit in Norway so far, but they can't deliver enough. How is the situation for Volkswagen?
  - icelancer 7y ago
    >> Audi and Jaguar could have made a lot more cars but can't get enough batteries. This is exactly what Elon said was going to happen years ago: Car manufacturers do not have the capacity to build batteries in sufficient quantity and quality and will not for many years.
raphaelj 7y ago
Aside luxury cars, it seems like German manufacturers are also losing against French manufacturers in the electric compact car market. Peugeot and Renault are having a decent success with their latest cars: https://uk.motor1.com/news/401562/europe-ev-sales-january-2020/ https://uk.motor1.com/news/401562/europe-ev-sales-january-20...
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  VW are on the verge of launching the ID.3, it will be interesting to see the figures in a years time.
baybal2 7y ago
Competition is gooood! What I don't conflate with "Iphone moment" is that European car companies are not Nokias and there are no Elop style saboteurs in them. All of them are used to "fight to bitter end" mentality, even though they haven't had such a moment when they really needed to for a very long time.
richardknop 7y ago
Personally, I don’t think the major move happening right now is from gasoline cars to EVs. The major move is from cars to no cars. Tesla will not be a great trillion dollar company in this scenario. It will be just another car manufacturer.
- mdorazio 7y ago
  Not really. The trend is to not owning cars if you’re a yuppie. People still need to get around in cars of some kind and Tesla is fairly well positioned for electric fleet sales of ride share or rental vehicles.
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    A lot of people, in fact, do not need to get around in cars. And rich people are more likely to own cars than poor people.
    - mdorazio 7y ago
      Right, that's what I said. Young urbanites often don't need cars. Families and people living outside dense urban areas usually do.
      - CydeWeys 7y ago
        It's a lot more than young urbanites that don't need cars. "Need" is an awfully strong word.
- sgillen 7y ago
  what would cars be replaced with then? Driverless cars that you rent on demand?
  - Scarblac 7y ago
    Depends on where you are, but in the Netherlands it'd be bicycle within the city, and trains between cities. For me it's only the camping holidays in summer that I really need a car for, and renting one for that costs close to what owning an old car costs, so I still have one. But I'm constantly considering getting rid of it.
throwsprtsdy 7y ago
> But, while technically innovative, with a carbon-fiber body, the i3 is essentially a very expensive hatchback. Yep. When people buy high performance or luxury cars, part of the mystique is that it is the latest evolution of some sort of classic. It's going to be hard for BMW et al to position electric vehicles as belonging to any existing lineage. This puts their brand at risk unless they can figure out how to make a remarkable electric car. But nobody really knows what that would be.
- jacobush 7y ago
  Porsche already tries hard with "Turbo": https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/04/cars/porsche-taycan-electric-car/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/04/cars/porsche-taycan-elect...
- bch 7y ago
  This is storytelling on the part of the automakers, so let me propose 2: 1) Porsche’s got 120 years of work since their first electric car [0] 2) I remember pulling the leg of some Tesla fans a long while ago (maybe when the first roadster came out) about how the “no radiator, front trunk, smooth underbody” sounded a lot like the air-cooled VWs we’ve all been enjoying since the 1930s. The manufacturers will find a way... [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche
- deleted 7y ago
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- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  They will just put a badge on it. I remember there was a survey of BMW owners a few years ago, most of the respondents didn't know their car was rear wheel drive.
jupp0r 7y ago
I don't know if it's just me, but I find most non Tesla electric cars to be incredibly ugly. If BMW made an electric 3 class sedan with > 350 miles of range for a reasonable price, I think that would be hugely successful. Instead they made the i3. The VW ID.3 looks like it would have the same problem. I know this is very subjective, but why not make a car that looks more like their already successful models?
- ricardobeat 7y ago
  Have you seen the Ioniq / Kona duo? They look quite traditional with a little flat-grille twist.
- d1zzy 7y ago
  I'm the opposite, I find Teslas to be (externally) ugly. In general I find any large sedan to be ugly. I don't get the sedan form factor, it seems to waste a lot of space. I've always owned hatchbacks because I like the way they look and they seem much more practical to me how I can bend the seats and carry a ton of stuff in the back (which I take advantage of at least once a month).
  - pmh 7y ago
    > how I can bend the seats and carry a ton of stuff in the back I don't think I've ever been in a sedan that doesn't have this feature, but you usually get a little more space out of a hatchback if the roof-line doesn't taper down.
    - javagram 7y ago
      A lot of newer hatchbacks seem to have a sharp taper to the roof and it really reduces the amount of space gained vs the sedan form factor. The Honda Fit and a few others are the exception but I assume the reason is that the SUV form factor has gobbled up most of the market for “hatchback with a lot of space for cargo”. E.g. Toyota discontinued the Prius V and is instead offering an electric RAV4.
  - jdhn 7y ago
adaisadais 7y ago
I often wonder what would have happened to the American auto industry if the US Gov’t had not bailed them out. Would we have multiple Tesla-like electric powered automobile companies today? Probably not. But just a thought.
- hristov 7y ago
  Keep in mind that the government bailed Tesla out too. Tesla took a hefty government loan before the model S roll-out. (It has been repaid now). So we might have had exactly zero Tesla like electric powered car companies today.
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    Needless to say, as a taxpayer, I'm very happy with how that loan to Tesla turned out. Talk about a return on investment.
  - grecy 7y ago
    The government did not "bail out Tesla". They lent them $465 million, and Tesla paid it all back, plus interest, ten years before it was due. [1] The government DID paid out GM, Chrysler and Ford. I.e. it lent $80.5 billion dollars and $10 billion will never be repaid. [2] Taxpayers paid for that so those companies can keep making private profits. I wish this kind of misinformation would die, because it's so easy to google and it's factual. [1] https://money.cnn.com/2013/05/22/autos/tesla-loan-repayment/index.html https://money.cnn.com/2013/05/22/autos/tesla-loan-repayment/... [2] https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chrysler-3305670 https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chr...
    - nl 7y ago
      Note that the government didn't "bail out" Ford either: The Ford Motor Company didn't need the funds since it had already cut costs. But it asked to be included so it wouldn't suffer by competing with companies who already had government subsidies. (from your link). I can't find anything about the $10B that won't be repaid. Do you have further details?
aSplash0fDerp 7y ago
IMO, Tesla needs to branch into 80% complete coachbuilder models and in a roundabout way, have a dealership in any town (or country) and shakeup the industry a little more for sh!TS and giggles. Once their production hits its stride and has a surplus of models, they can bring oldworld craftsmanship to a modern canvas. With the limited model lineup, who wouldn`t want a bespoke Tesla personalized just for them. I would still pick the 7-speed dogleg manual in the Vantage S, but a personalized Tesla would be a close second.
olivermarks 7y ago
I wonder whether Tesla will survive the current global economic contagion. They are essentially a luxury novelty vehicle manufacturer that relies heavily on subsidies and virtue signaling consumers of which there are a finite amount. They are the WeWork of the car industry and have interesting financials. Despite all this they have been a terrific r&d and mvp creator for potential future electric vehicle production, although there is much work to be done scaling electrical grids and vehicle recycling IMO
- johnghanks 7y ago
  Now _this_ is a hot take.
ggm 7y ago
Car purchase includes a huge amount of 'non rational actor' decision making. I like old jaguars. Walnut burr, doors that go "thunk" -in every sense (fuel economy, NCAP, reliability) they are irrational purchase: I still love them. And the Citroen DS19. EVs are in a segment with high discretionary spend. Choices in discretionary spending are notoriously bound up in non-rational choices: I could invest in diamonds, or snort it as coke, or fly to the bahamas in a helicopter is totally different lifestyle choices to "I need to get to Walmart at 3am for diapers, and I cannot afford to pay for more than basic AirConditioning" When EVs are in the segment of rational-decision bound purchases, when they are "boring" I will deem them to have succeeded. As long as the competition is Fiskar, not VW, and Not the Ioniq, or other Japanese low-end EV, its not baked yet. The low-end EV have to get about 50% more efficiency and drop price about 30%. There really is a sweet spot in most people's disposable income and on-road costs and range anxiety (also a highly irrational place btw) which is just around the corner: under $20,000 in any local economy over 300km range in real-life chargeable for usable amounts (10%? 20%?) in under 15min
- imglorp 7y ago
  I think a lot of Tesla is simply that they're not the other guys. They're giving people what they want. The dinosaurs have been refusing to innovate in many areas, screwing customers with exploitive dealer networks, dragging their feet on features when it's demanded of them, or just plain making everything miserable about cars for decades. The dinosars deserve to get their ass handed to them until they wake up and serve customers.
  - Areading314 7y ago
    Don't forget deliberately faking their emissions performance
  - clouddrover 7y ago
    > The dinosars deserve to get their ass handed to them until they wake up and serve customers. Who are the dinosaurs? Volkswagen sells 10 million vehicles a year. Toyota sells 10 million vehicles a year. Are you claiming that Volkswagen and Toyota are somehow not serving customers? If they're not serving customers then why are they selling so many cars?
dhosek 7y ago
Pet peeve from the first line: bemusement means confusion, not amusement. I remember when newspapers had editors who cared about what words meant.
- landtuna 7y ago
  Bemused and nonplussed seem to have changed in meaning.
Animats 7y ago
I wonder what will happen in Japan. Toyota is still pushing hydrogen fuel cells as the future and hybrids as the present.
- reustle 7y ago
  My 2 cents, I don't know of any hydrogen fuel stations in Tokyo except for one in Odaiba which seems shut down now.
Yhippa 7y ago
How much of a head start does Tesla have over traditional ICE-based auto manufacturers? It feels like a 10-year head start from my uninformed opinion. It will take a lot of work to change engineering ops, supply chains, and deal with pensions.
- foepys 7y ago
  Not really. German car companies buy most of the parts from suppliers. Those suppliers often have decades of experience with electric motors and batteries, see Bosch. If a supplier only does ICE components, they are out and the car company will find a new supplier.
  - growlist 7y ago
    There's a technology race on, and Tesla are clearly pretty aggressive in pursuit of innovation. I don't think the possibility of them having a lead over German companies as regards batteries is far-fetched at all.
  - dillonmckay 7y ago
    “ I talk here about Tesla as an existential thread for the German automotive industry, and why that is real and backed up with facts.” https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/25/tesla-an-uncomfortable-wake-up-call-for-germany-all-hands-on-deck/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/25/tesla-an-uncomfortable-...
- Wohlf 7y ago
  Nissan-Renault sells more EVs than Tesla, so none.
  - shookness 7y ago
    Wrong: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/04/tesla-model-3-sales-4x-nissan-leaf-sales-worlds-2nd-best-selling-ev-outside-of-china-november-ev-sales-report/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/04/tesla-model-3-sales-4x-...
- 7y ago
integricho 7y ago
If Tesla went bankrupt, would all the other manufacturers just stop producing / developing electric cars? Are they doing it now just out of fear of losing the market to Tesla? If that were the case, for the sake of humanity and the environment, we should be obliged to support Tesla exclusively, otherwise we will never free ourselves from diesel / gas based pollution machines.
- tenpies 7y ago
  Sort of depends on demand. Extremely cheap petrol - which we just got courtesy of OPEC+ - and a recession - courtesy of COVID-19 - are not exactly a hot market for new vehicles, much less luxury EV vehicles. On the bright side, this might be excellent for the environment because the best car for the environment is not a new car, it's to continue using the car you already have.
- akvadrako 7y ago
  EVs still don’t make profits at the prices people are willing to pay. They are building them because of government requirements. Some of them are instead buying credits from Tesla, so if Tesla stopped producing they would have to make more.
tus88 7y ago
Sounds like "industry" is as stupid as the short sellers.
JackPoach 7y ago
This title is highly misleading. Tesla isn't incredibly successful 'in Europe'. It's very successful in VERY few European countries (Netherlands, Norway). And it's due to local incentives mostly. You aren't going to be blown away by a number of Teslas in Italy or Greece or Poland or France. But when you walk through Amsterdam - yes, there are a ton of Teslas parked everywhere.
- Doctor_Fegg 7y ago
  Very much this. I think I’ve seen a single-figure number of Teslas here in the UK, ever. (I presume there are more in London but I don’t live there...)
  - mpswardle 7y ago
    There are tons of Teslas around my area in London. One every Street i would say, about the same level of Porsche.
  - growlist 7y ago
    More and more in Brighton (i.e. London-on-sea).
  - rkangel 7y ago
    I live in Cambridge (the high tech engineering capital of the UK), and unsurprisingly I see quite a few.
  - auiya 7y ago
    I was just in London for a week not too long ago. I saw about the same number of Teslas as I did pick up trucks, which is to say hardly any at all.
- ptah 7y ago
  you see about as many teslas as porsches in my experience
- rcMgD2BwE72F 7y ago
  >This title is highly misleading. Tesla isn't incredibly successful 'in Europe'. It's very successful in VERY few European countries (Netherlands, Norway). And it's due to local incentives mostly. That's just because Tesla remains production constrained. All the car delivered to Netherlands or Norway couldn't be delivered to any other European country. Just watch the UK deliveries for the 1rst quarter of 2020. It makes sense for Tesla to prioritize by markets with big EV incentive, but this shouldn't be interpreted as a lack of demand.
rini17 7y ago
I told my dealer 2years ago that I'm going to postpone replacing my kia cee'd diesel till electric become available in that class. We aren't there yet, but it's promising, now Kia/Hyundai do have couple of BEV models.
Doctor_Fegg 7y ago
ITT: lots of Americans responding to an article about the European car/mobility market with their exclusively American experience.
- TulliusCicero 7y ago
  I'm an American, but I live in Germany, specifically Munich, the home of BMW. Been seeing more and more Teslas around lately for sure. While Musk has said and done some dumb things, I'm still rooting for Tesla. Beyond the fact that electric cars are cool and good, I like the fact that Tesla is shaking the industry up, especially that they don't use dealerships, which are frequently scummy and often outright predatory. That we've tolerated them exploiting the ignorant or unwise for so long is a black mark against us as a society.
GrumpyNl 7y ago
I dont know whats going on with those numbers but sales in Norway and Holland are 80-90% down. They stopped with the tax benefits.
gryzzly 7y ago
Like iPhone took Nokia "off guard" in 2009, after 2 years it was a thing. These wise executives definitely deserve their big pay!
jamisteven 7y ago
Doesnt catch me off guard, europeans love modern, they love high tech, they love american brands as status symbols and they are very, very environmentally aware. Even if the Tesla isnt all that better than the really small engine's already in most cars here, it is perceived as a social statement and lifestyle. Not to mention it is unique compared to all the AUDI/VW/BMW's on the road here.
fmajid 7y ago
The German car makers' arrogance and complacency cannot be overstated.
lloeki 7y ago
I find it a very strange coincidence that the recent law in France to update the tax incentives against CO2 emitters and towards EV placed a new, previously nonexistent limit precisely right below the base Tesla price, excluding everything above (and thus every Tesla car) from the incentive. As it turns out, local EV cars such as the Renault Zoe are below the threshold, not the least because you buy the car but rent the battery, so the price appears much lower to the consumer, and the price of the battery is magically not factored in against the threshold.
- johannes1234321 7y ago
  In Germany there was (is?) a rule that for receiving a government incentive the "base model" of a car without "extras" had to below 60k. Tesla quickly offered a model on that price point ... people bought this in the version with extras (as one always does ...) later they had to repay the incentive as it was rruled that the base model didn't exist, as Tesla wouldn't sell.
  - mgoetzke 7y ago
    This time it seems different. The BAFA explicitly lists even the long range and performance models as base price of less than 40k. Listed under Model 3 2020.
- Reason077 7y ago
  > "I find it a very strange coincidence that the recent law in France to update the tax incentives against CO2 emitters and towards EV placed a new, previously nonexistent limit precisely right below the base Tesla price" This isn't necessarily a bad or evil thing to do. A price threshold increases the incentive for manufacturers to reduce their costs and bring their pricing under the threshold. Subsidy or not, EV prices must come down before they can fully displace combustion as the mainstream technology. (In Tesla's case, EU import tariffs are included in their prices. Once the Berlin factory is up and running, they'll be more competitive in Europe)
- slowmotarget 7y ago
  It's a non-issue for most French people like myself. In France, the Tesla cars are in the luxury price segment. There's no need to incentive the car that only wealthy people can afford.
DrScientist 7y ago
Note luxury car market. It's all about brand, and quick acceleration times so you can show off on the road. New is cool & electric cars have acceleration. Also German cars companies have had their reputation tarnished with the emissions cheating scandal. I wouldn't see the 'autopilot' feature as a big draw - you'd be mad to use that on most European roads, and you buy cars like that to drive
anentropic 7y ago
> One of the Model 3’s big selling points is its autonomous driving software Is it really though? It's not something I would ever want to use in its current form (which I understand is not safe enough to leave 'unattended', as it were, so so it seems to fall into a dangerous valley where it's autonomous enough that I don't have to pay full attention but also inadvisable not to) I'm pretty sure the main selling points are all around the electrification - superior range to other electric competitors plus the running cost benefit of electric vehicles in urban areas with pollution taxation.
classified 7y ago
Is this some kind of bloody joke? In how much of a deep sleep do you have to be to be caught "off guard" by Tesla?
xotehpoodle 7y ago
Tesla is so harmless.

404 points by prostoalex 7y ago

The same thing is happening to traditional automobile manufacturers now as what happened to the likes of Kodak and Xerox when the digital revolution came. They'll deny that the change is happening until it's way too late, and then become obsolete. Even when any outsider can look at the industry and say it's obvious that the future is electric and any manufacturer that hasn't already seriously dived into making EVs is being stupid. And yet, here we are ...

esturk 7y ago
The tragic part is there were probably employees pushing for change but management must've smothered them like a dying patient with a pillow.
- quickthrower2 7y ago
  Why take risks where you can fail when you are getting paid a fat check every month. It’s a “no one was fired for keeping the company running” kind of thing.
rootusrootus 7y ago
GM has announced what, 22 EVs in the next couple years? I don't think they're in any danger of becoming obsolete due to Tesla. If anything, Tesla should be getting worried. When competition heats up people will start caring more about reliability, features, and looks.
- intopieces 7y ago
  Did GM announce a charging network? Most people may be able to charge at home, but they also want peace of mind the 1 time a year they travel on a road trip. I picked Tesla for my next EV because of the charging stations. Level 2 and even CHAdeMO and CCS are just too slow, and there’s not enough of the latter two.
  - bradlys 7y ago
    I don't think the vast majority are buying electric cars with it being their only vehicle. Aren't 80% of Tesla owners also homeowners? Likely living with a spouse, who has a non electric car for those longer road trips. And maybe a Tesla owner uses the Tesla network for road trips but I think the majority of electric owners without a network have a gas car too. Even then, I think those buying an electric can afford air travel.
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  - rootusrootus 7y ago
    As I recall, the largest DC fast charging network is no longer Tesla's, and that will only accelerate over the next couple years. I'm hoping that soon Tesla will make an adapter available so I can use that network too.
    - CydeWeys 7y ago
      Source? Last time I saw this claim, it was some manufacturer that was also compatible with Tesla's charging infrastructure, and including Tesla's own network as part of its claim.
      - intopieces 7y ago
        EVGo is the nation's largest provider of DC fast charging. It has 800 stations to Tesla's 443. Tesla can use EVGo and L2 stations through ChargePoint. But, EVGo usually has 1-2 chargers per station, whereas Tesla has 10-30. Tesla's onboard computer routes to the Tesla stations and prepares the battery to be charged, something that I haven't seen in other EVs.
- pmorici 7y ago
  I would be surprised if GM has more models available than Tesla in the US at any point in the next 5 years. Tesla will have 7 once all the currently announced models are in production.
- virgilp 7y ago
  Lots of companies rushed smartphones after the iPhone; like GM with EVs, Nokia also was the inventor/original smartphone producer.. in fact, it was more advanced in the field than GM is with the EV. Yet here we are, with Nokia being a shadow of its former self. I wouldn't be so quick to claim "Tesla should be worried" - Tesla should only be worried about its own execution, and should be ignoring competition altogether (which I think they do).
- Dumblydorr 7y ago
  Everything you mentioned is dependent on them rolling out EVs in volume reliably, which is probably going to take another 5 years. Meanwhile, Tesla's vehicles have a massive lead on efficiency, range, brand, and performance. GM simply makes lackluster vehicles and I dont see their quality improving to rival Tesla or its huge tech lead.
- koffiezet 7y ago
  > Tesla should be getting worried I'm not exactly a Tesla fan, I think their cars are pretty bland, certainly the interior is pretty spartan for the price you're paying, and I'm not convinced of the entire infotainment system/massive screen in the middle. But... Other manufacturers allowed Tesla to become an established brand, and right now if you tell someone you have an electric car, their response will be "oh a Tesla?" 9 out of 10. On top of that, Tesla is learning quality/finish faster than other manufacturers are learning how to mass produce electric cars properly. The newer model 3 from one colleague is miles ahead build-quality-wise of the one from another, who got one of the first to arrive in Europe. And lastly, Tesla has a massive head-start in battery production capacity, and I would not be surprised if they'd start selling batteries to other manufacturers soon. Battery supply chains are currently the limiting factors for many car models (the Hyundai Ioniq has a massive waiting list for this exact reason for example). Most classic car brands also give priority to direct battery supply towards their more mass-market lineup where they're now offering hybrid solutions. They can make what - 10 hybrid cars with the same amount of batteries it takes to make a single-electric-one? Choosing between selling 1 or 10 cars limited by a strained supply chain is an easy choice. Sure they'll offer electric versions for a premium, but the hybrid-ones are the ones they're really producing and driving sales.

georgeecollins 7y ago

Leaving aside (and I know this hard) the controversy of Tesla's valuation, Elon Musk and the environmental virtues of electric cars, think what a historic success Tesla is as a car company. There have been dozen(s) of car companies started in the US since WW2 and you could argue that not one of them has been a success. The biggest Kaiser Motors, has probably been surpassed. For decades American and Japanese manufacturers have tried to compete with European luxury brands. American companies had almost no success and Japanese very little. Lexus does well, but it never displaced German car sales the way Tesla is now. I am not a Tesla fanboy, but I do like cars. You have to respect the product.

jessriedel 7y ago
In a recent podcast interview, Musk claims there have been thousands of new (EDIT: American) consumer car companies and that every single one has failed besides Tesla (if I recall correctly). Presumably this counts every incorporated team that made a rudimentary prototype.
- aantix 7y ago
  Do you remember the podcast?
  - jessriedel 7y ago
    Third Row. Can't remember if it was part 1 or 2, but probably 2. It's very fanboyish, but there are some good stories on there about the early days of SpaceX and Tesla.
- baybal2 7y ago
  BYD - been around for an eternity by silicon valley standards, few other genuinely new Chinese brands (ones which are not subsidiaries of BAIC or FAW,) Vinfast, Peroda
  - jessriedel 7y ago
    Sorry, I forgot to mention he specified American.

neonate 7y ago

https://archive.md/TULea https://archive.md/TULea

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w-m 7y ago

Tesla seems to be somewhat ahead in technology - their range is currently higher than in the Porsches/Audis/... and the software seems quite a bit more advanced. Tesla can use this to their advantage to sell more cars while the traditional automakers play catchup. But eventually they will get closer. And Volkswagen alone can introduce dozens of new models every year, based on their building blocks (MEB) and numerous brands. There will be cars this year from 15.000€ (VW e.Up and friends) to 150.000€ (Porsche Taycan), and a few others in between. VW alone plans to introduce 70 electric models in the coming years. How will Tesla, who did 4 models in ten years, compete with the sheer breadth of this market? Looking at what’s parked in the street, people choose lots of different types of cars, there’s no one-fits-all.

btian 7y ago
How about VW make one model that is competitive in terms of specs and price with Tesla, then we can talk about 70 or 700 models.
- imtringued 7y ago
  I'm not in the market for a Tesla and I will probably never be even though I am very interested in EVs.
magicalhippo 7y ago
From what I read, Audi and Jaguar could have made a lot more cars but can't get enough batteries. The new e-Tron has been a big hit in Norway so far, but they can't deliver enough. How is the situation for Volkswagen?
- icelancer 7y ago
  >> Audi and Jaguar could have made a lot more cars but can't get enough batteries. This is exactly what Elon said was going to happen years ago: Car manufacturers do not have the capacity to build batteries in sufficient quantity and quality and will not for many years.

raphaelj 7y ago

Aside luxury cars, it seems like German manufacturers are also losing against French manufacturers in the electric compact car market. Peugeot and Renault are having a decent success with their latest cars: https://uk.motor1.com/news/401562/europe-ev-sales-january-2020/ https://uk.motor1.com/news/401562/europe-ev-sales-january-20...

tonyedgecombe 7y ago
VW are on the verge of launching the ID.3, it will be interesting to see the figures in a years time.

baybal2 7y ago

Competition is gooood! What I don't conflate with "Iphone moment" is that European car companies are not Nokias and there are no Elop style saboteurs in them. All of them are used to "fight to bitter end" mentality, even though they haven't had such a moment when they really needed to for a very long time.

richardknop 7y ago

Personally, I don’t think the major move happening right now is from gasoline cars to EVs. The major move is from cars to no cars. Tesla will not be a great trillion dollar company in this scenario. It will be just another car manufacturer.

mdorazio 7y ago
Not really. The trend is to not owning cars if you’re a yuppie. People still need to get around in cars of some kind and Tesla is fairly well positioned for electric fleet sales of ride share or rental vehicles.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  A lot of people, in fact, do not need to get around in cars. And rich people are more likely to own cars than poor people.
  - mdorazio 7y ago
    Right, that's what I said. Young urbanites often don't need cars. Families and people living outside dense urban areas usually do.
    - CydeWeys 7y ago
      It's a lot more than young urbanites that don't need cars. "Need" is an awfully strong word.
sgillen 7y ago
what would cars be replaced with then? Driverless cars that you rent on demand?
- Scarblac 7y ago
  Depends on where you are, but in the Netherlands it'd be bicycle within the city, and trains between cities. For me it's only the camping holidays in summer that I really need a car for, and renting one for that costs close to what owning an old car costs, so I still have one. But I'm constantly considering getting rid of it.

throwsprtsdy 7y ago

> But, while technically innovative, with a carbon-fiber body, the i3 is essentially a very expensive hatchback. Yep. When people buy high performance or luxury cars, part of the mystique is that it is the latest evolution of some sort of classic. It's going to be hard for BMW et al to position electric vehicles as belonging to any existing lineage. This puts their brand at risk unless they can figure out how to make a remarkable electric car. But nobody really knows what that would be.

jacobush 7y ago
Porsche already tries hard with "Turbo": https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/04/cars/porsche-taycan-electric-car/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/04/cars/porsche-taycan-elect...
bch 7y ago
This is storytelling on the part of the automakers, so let me propose 2: 1) Porsche’s got 120 years of work since their first electric car [0] 2) I remember pulling the leg of some Tesla fans a long while ago (maybe when the first roadster came out) about how the “no radiator, front trunk, smooth underbody” sounded a lot like the air-cooled VWs we’ve all been enjoying since the 1930s. The manufacturers will find a way... [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche
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tonyedgecombe 7y ago
They will just put a badge on it. I remember there was a survey of BMW owners a few years ago, most of the respondents didn't know their car was rear wheel drive.

jupp0r 7y ago

I don't know if it's just me, but I find most non Tesla electric cars to be incredibly ugly. If BMW made an electric 3 class sedan with > 350 miles of range for a reasonable price, I think that would be hugely successful. Instead they made the i3. The VW ID.3 looks like it would have the same problem. I know this is very subjective, but why not make a car that looks more like their already successful models?

ricardobeat 7y ago
Have you seen the Ioniq / Kona duo? They look quite traditional with a little flat-grille twist.
d1zzy 7y ago
I'm the opposite, I find Teslas to be (externally) ugly. In general I find any large sedan to be ugly. I don't get the sedan form factor, it seems to waste a lot of space. I've always owned hatchbacks because I like the way they look and they seem much more practical to me how I can bend the seats and carry a ton of stuff in the back (which I take advantage of at least once a month).
- pmh 7y ago
  > how I can bend the seats and carry a ton of stuff in the back I don't think I've ever been in a sedan that doesn't have this feature, but you usually get a little more space out of a hatchback if the roof-line doesn't taper down.
  - javagram 7y ago
    A lot of newer hatchbacks seem to have a sharp taper to the roof and it really reduces the amount of space gained vs the sedan form factor. The Honda Fit and a few others are the exception but I assume the reason is that the SUV form factor has gobbled up most of the market for “hatchback with a lot of space for cargo”. E.g. Toyota discontinued the Prius V and is instead offering an electric RAV4.
- jdhn 7y ago

adaisadais 7y ago

I often wonder what would have happened to the American auto industry if the US Gov’t had not bailed them out. Would we have multiple Tesla-like electric powered automobile companies today? Probably not. But just a thought.

hristov 7y ago
Keep in mind that the government bailed Tesla out too. Tesla took a hefty government loan before the model S roll-out. (It has been repaid now). So we might have had exactly zero Tesla like electric powered car companies today.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  Needless to say, as a taxpayer, I'm very happy with how that loan to Tesla turned out. Talk about a return on investment.
- grecy 7y ago
  The government did not "bail out Tesla". They lent them $465 million, and Tesla paid it all back, plus interest, ten years before it was due. [1] The government DID paid out GM, Chrysler and Ford. I.e. it lent $80.5 billion dollars and $10 billion will never be repaid. [2] Taxpayers paid for that so those companies can keep making private profits. I wish this kind of misinformation would die, because it's so easy to google and it's factual. [1] https://money.cnn.com/2013/05/22/autos/tesla-loan-repayment/index.html https://money.cnn.com/2013/05/22/autos/tesla-loan-repayment/... [2] https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chrysler-3305670 https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chr...
  - nl 7y ago
    Note that the government didn't "bail out" Ford either: The Ford Motor Company didn't need the funds since it had already cut costs. But it asked to be included so it wouldn't suffer by competing with companies who already had government subsidies. (from your link). I can't find anything about the $10B that won't be repaid. Do you have further details?

aSplash0fDerp 7y ago

IMO, Tesla needs to branch into 80% complete coachbuilder models and in a roundabout way, have a dealership in any town (or country) and shakeup the industry a little more for sh!TS and giggles. Once their production hits its stride and has a surplus of models, they can bring oldworld craftsmanship to a modern canvas. With the limited model lineup, who wouldn`t want a bespoke Tesla personalized just for them. I would still pick the 7-speed dogleg manual in the Vantage S, but a personalized Tesla would be a close second.

olivermarks 7y ago

I wonder whether Tesla will survive the current global economic contagion. They are essentially a luxury novelty vehicle manufacturer that relies heavily on subsidies and virtue signaling consumers of which there are a finite amount. They are the WeWork of the car industry and have interesting financials. Despite all this they have been a terrific r&d and mvp creator for potential future electric vehicle production, although there is much work to be done scaling electrical grids and vehicle recycling IMO

johnghanks 7y ago
Now _this_ is a hot take.

ggm 7y ago

Car purchase includes a huge amount of 'non rational actor' decision making. I like old jaguars. Walnut burr, doors that go "thunk" -in every sense (fuel economy, NCAP, reliability) they are irrational purchase: I still love them. And the Citroen DS19. EVs are in a segment with high discretionary spend. Choices in discretionary spending are notoriously bound up in non-rational choices: I could invest in diamonds, or snort it as coke, or fly to the bahamas in a helicopter is totally different lifestyle choices to "I need to get to Walmart at 3am for diapers, and I cannot afford to pay for more than basic AirConditioning" When EVs are in the segment of rational-decision bound purchases, when they are "boring" I will deem them to have succeeded. As long as the competition is Fiskar, not VW, and Not the Ioniq, or other Japanese low-end EV, its not baked yet. The low-end EV have to get about 50% more efficiency and drop price about 30%. There really is a sweet spot in most people's disposable income and on-road costs and range anxiety (also a highly irrational place btw) which is just around the corner: under $20,000 in any local economy over 300km range in real-life chargeable for usable amounts (10%? 20%?) in under 15min

imglorp 7y ago
I think a lot of Tesla is simply that they're not the other guys. They're giving people what they want. The dinosaurs have been refusing to innovate in many areas, screwing customers with exploitive dealer networks, dragging their feet on features when it's demanded of them, or just plain making everything miserable about cars for decades. The dinosars deserve to get their ass handed to them until they wake up and serve customers.
- Areading314 7y ago
  Don't forget deliberately faking their emissions performance
- clouddrover 7y ago
  > The dinosars deserve to get their ass handed to them until they wake up and serve customers. Who are the dinosaurs? Volkswagen sells 10 million vehicles a year. Toyota sells 10 million vehicles a year. Are you claiming that Volkswagen and Toyota are somehow not serving customers? If they're not serving customers then why are they selling so many cars?

dhosek 7y ago

Pet peeve from the first line: bemusement means confusion, not amusement. I remember when newspapers had editors who cared about what words meant.

landtuna 7y ago
Bemused and nonplussed seem to have changed in meaning.

Animats 7y ago

I wonder what will happen in Japan. Toyota is still pushing hydrogen fuel cells as the future and hybrids as the present.

reustle 7y ago
My 2 cents, I don't know of any hydrogen fuel stations in Tokyo except for one in Odaiba which seems shut down now.

Yhippa 7y ago

How much of a head start does Tesla have over traditional ICE-based auto manufacturers? It feels like a 10-year head start from my uninformed opinion. It will take a lot of work to change engineering ops, supply chains, and deal with pensions.

foepys 7y ago
Not really. German car companies buy most of the parts from suppliers. Those suppliers often have decades of experience with electric motors and batteries, see Bosch. If a supplier only does ICE components, they are out and the car company will find a new supplier.
- growlist 7y ago
  There's a technology race on, and Tesla are clearly pretty aggressive in pursuit of innovation. I don't think the possibility of them having a lead over German companies as regards batteries is far-fetched at all.
- dillonmckay 7y ago
  “ I talk here about Tesla as an existential thread for the German automotive industry, and why that is real and backed up with facts.” https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/25/tesla-an-uncomfortable-wake-up-call-for-germany-all-hands-on-deck/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/25/tesla-an-uncomfortable-...
Wohlf 7y ago
Nissan-Renault sells more EVs than Tesla, so none.
- shookness 7y ago
  Wrong: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/04/tesla-model-3-sales-4x-nissan-leaf-sales-worlds-2nd-best-selling-ev-outside-of-china-november-ev-sales-report/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/04/tesla-model-3-sales-4x-...
7y ago

integricho 7y ago

If Tesla went bankrupt, would all the other manufacturers just stop producing / developing electric cars? Are they doing it now just out of fear of losing the market to Tesla? If that were the case, for the sake of humanity and the environment, we should be obliged to support Tesla exclusively, otherwise we will never free ourselves from diesel / gas based pollution machines.

tenpies 7y ago
Sort of depends on demand. Extremely cheap petrol - which we just got courtesy of OPEC+ - and a recession - courtesy of COVID-19 - are not exactly a hot market for new vehicles, much less luxury EV vehicles. On the bright side, this might be excellent for the environment because the best car for the environment is not a new car, it's to continue using the car you already have.
akvadrako 7y ago
EVs still don’t make profits at the prices people are willing to pay. They are building them because of government requirements. Some of them are instead buying credits from Tesla, so if Tesla stopped producing they would have to make more.

tus88 7y ago

Sounds like "industry" is as stupid as the short sellers.

JackPoach 7y ago

This title is highly misleading. Tesla isn't incredibly successful 'in Europe'. It's very successful in VERY few European countries (Netherlands, Norway). And it's due to local incentives mostly. You aren't going to be blown away by a number of Teslas in Italy or Greece or Poland or France. But when you walk through Amsterdam - yes, there are a ton of Teslas parked everywhere.

Doctor_Fegg 7y ago
Very much this. I think I’ve seen a single-figure number of Teslas here in the UK, ever. (I presume there are more in London but I don’t live there...)
- mpswardle 7y ago
  There are tons of Teslas around my area in London. One every Street i would say, about the same level of Porsche.
- growlist 7y ago
  More and more in Brighton (i.e. London-on-sea).
- rkangel 7y ago
  I live in Cambridge (the high tech engineering capital of the UK), and unsurprisingly I see quite a few.
- auiya 7y ago
  I was just in London for a week not too long ago. I saw about the same number of Teslas as I did pick up trucks, which is to say hardly any at all.
ptah 7y ago
you see about as many teslas as porsches in my experience
rcMgD2BwE72F 7y ago
>This title is highly misleading. Tesla isn't incredibly successful 'in Europe'. It's very successful in VERY few European countries (Netherlands, Norway). And it's due to local incentives mostly. That's just because Tesla remains production constrained. All the car delivered to Netherlands or Norway couldn't be delivered to any other European country. Just watch the UK deliveries for the 1rst quarter of 2020. It makes sense for Tesla to prioritize by markets with big EV incentive, but this shouldn't be interpreted as a lack of demand.

rini17 7y ago

I told my dealer 2years ago that I'm going to postpone replacing my kia cee'd diesel till electric become available in that class. We aren't there yet, but it's promising, now Kia/Hyundai do have couple of BEV models.

Doctor_Fegg 7y ago

ITT: lots of Americans responding to an article about the European car/mobility market with their exclusively American experience.

TulliusCicero 7y ago
I'm an American, but I live in Germany, specifically Munich, the home of BMW. Been seeing more and more Teslas around lately for sure. While Musk has said and done some dumb things, I'm still rooting for Tesla. Beyond the fact that electric cars are cool and good, I like the fact that Tesla is shaking the industry up, especially that they don't use dealerships, which are frequently scummy and often outright predatory. That we've tolerated them exploiting the ignorant or unwise for so long is a black mark against us as a society.

GrumpyNl 7y ago

I dont know whats going on with those numbers but sales in Norway and Holland are 80-90% down. They stopped with the tax benefits.

gryzzly 7y ago

Like iPhone took Nokia "off guard" in 2009, after 2 years it was a thing. These wise executives definitely deserve their big pay!

jamisteven 7y ago

Doesnt catch me off guard, europeans love modern, they love high tech, they love american brands as status symbols and they are very, very environmentally aware. Even if the Tesla isnt all that better than the really small engine's already in most cars here, it is perceived as a social statement and lifestyle. Not to mention it is unique compared to all the AUDI/VW/BMW's on the road here.

fmajid 7y ago

The German car makers' arrogance and complacency cannot be overstated.

lloeki 7y ago

I find it a very strange coincidence that the recent law in France to update the tax incentives against CO2 emitters and towards EV placed a new, previously nonexistent limit precisely right below the base Tesla price, excluding everything above (and thus every Tesla car) from the incentive. As it turns out, local EV cars such as the Renault Zoe are below the threshold, not the least because you buy the car but rent the battery, so the price appears much lower to the consumer, and the price of the battery is magically not factored in against the threshold.

johannes1234321 7y ago
In Germany there was (is?) a rule that for receiving a government incentive the "base model" of a car without "extras" had to below 60k. Tesla quickly offered a model on that price point ... people bought this in the version with extras (as one always does ...) later they had to repay the incentive as it was rruled that the base model didn't exist, as Tesla wouldn't sell.
- mgoetzke 7y ago
  This time it seems different. The BAFA explicitly lists even the long range and performance models as base price of less than 40k. Listed under Model 3 2020.
Reason077 7y ago
> "I find it a very strange coincidence that the recent law in France to update the tax incentives against CO2 emitters and towards EV placed a new, previously nonexistent limit precisely right below the base Tesla price" This isn't necessarily a bad or evil thing to do. A price threshold increases the incentive for manufacturers to reduce their costs and bring their pricing under the threshold. Subsidy or not, EV prices must come down before they can fully displace combustion as the mainstream technology. (In Tesla's case, EU import tariffs are included in their prices. Once the Berlin factory is up and running, they'll be more competitive in Europe)
slowmotarget 7y ago
It's a non-issue for most French people like myself. In France, the Tesla cars are in the luxury price segment. There's no need to incentive the car that only wealthy people can afford.

DrScientist 7y ago

Note luxury car market. It's all about brand, and quick acceleration times so you can show off on the road. New is cool & electric cars have acceleration. Also German cars companies have had their reputation tarnished with the emissions cheating scandal. I wouldn't see the 'autopilot' feature as a big draw - you'd be mad to use that on most European roads, and you buy cars like that to drive

anentropic 7y ago

> One of the Model 3’s big selling points is its autonomous driving software Is it really though? It's not something I would ever want to use in its current form (which I understand is not safe enough to leave 'unattended', as it were, so so it seems to fall into a dangerous valley where it's autonomous enough that I don't have to pay full attention but also inadvisable not to) I'm pretty sure the main selling points are all around the electrification - superior range to other electric competitors plus the running cost benefit of electric vehicles in urban areas with pollution taxation.

classified 7y ago

Is this some kind of bloody joke? In how much of a deep sleep do you have to be to be caught "off guard" by Tesla?

xotehpoodle 7y ago

Tesla is so harmless.