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Texas Power Prices Briefly Surpass $9k Amid Scorching Heat
- dawhizkid 7y agoGuessing that breaks down to something like $30-$40 per hour per home? Wow.
- phamilton 7y agoSome fun numbers (@ $9/kwh): Running a 1kw microwave costs 15 cents a minute. Watching a 2 hour movie on a 65" TV costs a dollar. Playing a PS4 is $2/hr. Edit: Added @9/kwh because it wasn't clear that's what I was using in my calculations
- cmurf 7y agoA 1500W microwave at 10 cents/kWh will cost 15 cents per hour. A 65" TV might use 100W, 2 hours a day would cost you $6 a year. A refrigerator will get you because it's running 10 hours a day. Much bigger, is the giant heat sink that is your water heater.
- mlyle 7y agoThe spike here was to $9/kWh. 100W * 2 hours * ($9 / (Kilowatt * Hour) = $1.80
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- kmc059000 7y agoMost (I assume) residential consumers pay a fixed price, so that cost falls to the energy providers. Events like these have caused smaller Retail Energy Providers to have to go bankrupt due to not being able to pay for the demand of their customers.
- jumbopapa 7y agoThis is what I was interested in learning about.
- hanniabu 7y agoI'm surprised there aren't rate limiting controls for home when certain rates are hit (that the home owner can set).
- jhayward 7y agoNo one pays that. This is the realtime spot price, which is only paid by retailers who have an "oh shit" problem with their advanced purchasing. (I should note, there are actually retailers who will sell you spot priced power, should that be your desire). The vast, vast majority of power is purchased years (via PPAs) to days ahead of time at much more reasonable and stable prices.
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago>The unprecedented market rally highlights how volatile the Texas power market has become as coal-fired power plants, which have seen their profits squeezed by cheap natural gas and renewable energy resources, continue to close. Texas’s grid operator has been warning for months that plant retirements and increasing electricity demand has left it with slim supply margins. >This week’s price spikes also underscore how dependent the region’s power grid has become on wind farms, which now make up about a quarter of the generation capacity in Texas. Lackluster breezes have contributed to the higher prices, Hehir said. This is one of the downsides of the push to "green" energy. While wind and solar are great, there can be significant variability. Unfortunately, battery tech is not there yet to help with the supply-demand mismatches.
- prawn 7y ago"Unfortunately, battery tech is not there yet to help with the supply-demand mismatches." Isn't this the situation that Elon's battery in South Australia was built to handle? From what I understand, it's been profitable and successful. --- Without something to handle soaring peaks, a friend of mine who works in energy described the power landscape as like needing a 100-lane wide bridge to deal with peak-hour crossing a city river.
- sjwright 7y agoThe South Australia battery is profitable because it solves the problem of changes in demand over a period of seconds or minutes, filling the gaps while a larger fossil fuel plant manually ramps up to take over the load. It’s critically important and far more costly to do in other ways.
- jedberg 7y agoWasn't Texas also where the price went negative over the spring?
- cavisne 7y agoThat’s what happens in markets with a lot of wind generation, South Australia saw a 14000/mwh price for 5 hours earlier this year (Due to a 48 Celsius heat wave). Hot days and wind generation are not correlated unfortunately.
- Skunkleton 7y agoIt sounds like even a non-renewable grid would benefit from large-scale energy storage.
- tzs 7y agoIsn’t the Texas grid largely isolated, with only minimal connections to the two major multi state grids that the other states connect to? I’d guess that also contributes by limiting their options for dealing with excess when demand is low or shortages when demand is high.
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- nkingsy 7y agoHow hard would it be to run large hvdc lines across time zones and pipe energy between areas with complimenting renewables?
- ars 7y agoTexas has an independent power grid unlike the rest of the US. It's an odd choice, it helps then in some ways, but hurts in others.
- hanniabu 7y agoI guess that's a repercussion from the succession. It was a long time ago, but I'm sure there were many people in positions of power that still held those viewpoints and wanted to keep everything separate for when that (in their minds) inevitable day comes again.
- atdrummond 7y agoMy understanding is that it is a side effect of WWII. Texas had a large amount of plants needing redundancy. Afterwards, ERCOT's independence allowed the state to bypass a significant amount of FERC oversight and regulation.
- 205guy 7y agoBuck minster Fuller called, and he's still waiting for us to implement the future he envisioned. See the section titled "The Global Energy Grid:" http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2009/02/buckminster-fullers-critical-path.html http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2009/02/buckminster-fullers-c...
- newguy1234 7y agoVery hard. Most people don't want an extension cord running through their backyard.
- technofiend 7y agoA friend of mine who works from home was trying to get me to switch to Griddy which offers pass-through market prices at 15 minute increments. Today his electric bill was $9 and that was after he turned off literally everything except his fridge. He even turned off his hot water heater. We only had 3% capacity left in the system, yet out in the Permian Basin operators are flaring off excess gas because they have no access to pipelines or choose not to pay for it. *1 Until the Texas Railroad Commission stops allowing flaring permits and forces operators to connect the energy of all that gas is wasted, which is a damn shame. We could definitely use that gas (after processing) to run peakers until better storage comes online. But how do you sell the idea of investment to flatten energy prices in an unregulated market? (1) https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Gas-Flaring-Running-Rampant-In-The-Permian.html# https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Gas-Flaring-Running-...
- amluto 7y ago> We only had 3% capacity left in the system, yet out in the Permian Basin operators are flaring off excess gas. That has nothing to do with the problem (except extremely indirectly via global warming). There isn’t a shortage of fuels — there’s a shortage of generation capacity. No amount of extra natural gas would make the slightest difference.
- tonyedgecombe 7y agoThere isn’t a shortage of fuels — there’s a shortage of generation capacity. Or an excess of demand, there are plenty of ways to build houses that lower the need for air conditioning.
- dillonmckay 7y agoOr retrofit existing houses with supplemental geothermal cooling.
- adrianN 7y agoOr add some insulation.
- zaroth 7y agoThat's over ~$750 for the power stored in a single Tesla battery pack. Not that the cars are capable of back-feeding the grid (V2G), unfortunately, nor is the infrastructure in place to pull from them in times like this... It sure seems like if we're going to have millions of these 100kWh batteries plugged in, all nicely geographically distributed and internet connected, it would be swell if the owners could set a price at which they would be willing to sell their energy. It would just add another way that EVs are better than ICE cars.
- taneq 7y agoAC Propulsion was touting "vehicle-to-grid" as a feature way back in the 2000. At the time it seemed crazy with car batteries having cycle lives in the low hundreds, but it's looking better and better now...
- zaroth 7y agoI think if you could set your own price limit, and the software can account for it somehow in terms of de-rating the battery warranty, it would work. The big factor I'm not sure about is the added COGS to the car. This [1] seems to say it's only $200-$300 in added cost of parts in the car. It's not clear if that's in addition to the added cost in the charge port, or instead of. One important factor is even though the battery is capable of feeding perhaps up to 100 KW, if your charger is on a 40-amp 240v circuit, you are limited there to just 9.6kW. This drastically limits your ability to profit in the case of a spike, but then again, if there are several hundred thousand batteries competing with you, it's less likely to need to pull more than 10kW from any one battery. [1] - https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/69017.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/69017.pdf
- nradov 7y agoOver time it might be more practical for EV manufacturers to take back decommissioned vehicles and install the battery packs in centralized facilities for grid storage and stabilization. That would avoid the need for expensive and complex grid connection equipment in individual EVs. Even if the reused batteries are down to 60% capacity, stacking a bunch of them could deliver enough power for demand spikes.
- d_burfoot 7y agoOne of the biggest skills humanity has to learn soon is global heat management. At the same time it's 100 degrees in Dallas, it's freezing cold in some other part of the world. And in the same place but at a different time of year, the temperature goes down to around 40 degrees. There's got to be a way to even out those fluctuations, and doing so would produce immense benefits: humans are comfortable in 60-70 degree weather, so by moving heat from the hot space/time locations to the frigid ones, we win on both sides of the deal. And by the way, the Second Law of Thermodynamics also wants to smooth out temperature gradients. It's got to be possible.
- spraak 7y agoLiterally pumping heat or cold around the earth, you're saying? That sounds like it could have a disastrous effect on the seasons at best...
- krapht 7y agoBuild your house in the ground. We should all live in Hobbit holes, which means comfort, because of consistent year round ground temperatures.
- RandomBacon 7y agoAnd having "grass roofs" would probably be better for the environment too.
- lurker458 7y agoTo even it out across space already exists. Temperature differences generate a force that vastly outnumbers our own energy production capabilities (including nukes). It's called wind.
- cobookman 7y agoI’ve wondered as solar gets more popular we’ll have heat and cooling systems that take advantage of the free excess electricity. For example heat my water to 140% the ideal temp and cool a thermal sink for ac when I’m away from home during peak solar. Then when I’m at home and it’s no longer sunny my electricity needs are nil as I utilize the pre stored coolant and heat. Haven’t done the math but I’d assume a 500 gallon water tank that’s heated or cooled during peak solar with insulation could be used to keep your home at the perfect temperature by using excess solar.
- dreamcompiler 7y agoFor reference, $9k is roughly 300x the "normal" price.
- H8crilA 7y agoHere's a chart for a quick visualisation: http://www.energyonline.com/Data/GenericData.aspx?DataId=4 http://www.energyonline.com/Data/GenericData.aspx?DataId=4 https://imgur.com/a/6gfF5NI https://imgur.com/a/6gfF5NI Also such bumps do happen somewhat regularly (which is concerning), but this one was by far the largest recently: https://imgur.com/a/kj9Okjt https://imgur.com/a/kj9Okjt
- 6thaccount2 7y ago$9k is fairly artificial in that it comes from the $9k ERCOT ORDC (operations reserves demand curve) meaning they did a study awhile back looking at Texas GDP and the cost of lost load and judge it to be ~$9k per MWh. This means when the optimization software has a shortage of their operating reserves the prices jump up to that level.
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- nickserv 7y agoSeems like solar power would be perfect for this situation, maximum production at time of greatest use. And Texas has plenty of land where putting in massive solar plants would do little ecological damage.
- xfitm3 7y agoRunning a diesel generator cheaper than $9/kW.
- adammunich 7y agoAround 50 cents / kWh
- driverdan 7y agoSo is a gasoline generator. A Honda EU3000is costs around $0.50/kWh to run, excluding depreciation.
- jabl 7y agoFor something that is used a few hours per year the dominant cost is the capital cost, and not the marginal cost (fuel + wear&tear).
- jhayward 7y agoNot for 90 minutes per year.
- estomagordo 7y agoAre American electricity prices usually given as USD per Megawatt-hour? Because I found the headline wholeheartedly useless without knowing what the unit of energy was.
- carlmr 7y agoIn Canada I had per KWh (same as in most of Europe I think), so yes, I found this completely useless. Maybe they just wanted to say it's over 9000 because of the meme.
- vinay427 7y agoSame everywhere I've lived in the US. These are wholesale prices in the article which seem to use MWh in many countries.
- ralfd 7y ago1 Mega = 1000 Kilo So a price of $9000 per MWh is $9 per KWh.
- carlmr 7y agoObviously, it's missing in the title is the point, not the unit used.
- Dylan16807 7y agoYou're calling an article 'useless' because you have to open it to know the unit? That's pretty extreme. Would you be complaining if it was "Texas Power Prices Spike Amid Scorching Heat"? Or "Texas Power Prices Max Out Amid Scorching Heat"? I think both those titles are fine, and they give about the same amount of information.
- carlmr 7y agoI was replying to a comment on the headline being useless. It's normal in English not to repeat something in a reply. To spell it out. It's completely useless to mention $9k in the headline if you don't mention per how many units of energy. Your suggested titles are IMHO better since they use qualitative language instead of a quantity with no reference point.
- mcv 7y agoIf it's incredibly hot, doesn't that also mean it's incredibly sunny? Sounds like solar would be the perfect solution here. In Australia, energy prices sometimes go negative because of the abundance of solar energy[0]. Admittedly not during the hottest days when everybody turns up the AC, but using solar to supply that energy still seems like the most logical approach. Of course alternating between extremely high and negative prices due to the volatility in supply and demand should create plenty of opportunity for businesses that make money simply storing energy and evening out the fluctuation. [0] https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-push-south-australia-prices-below-zero-for-almost-six-hours-39546/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-push-south-australia-...
- IfOnlyYouKnew 7y agoThere is less of a relation between heat and solar intensity (and therefore solar cell output) than one might think. A cloud-less summer day in Texas offers the same potential solar energy no matter the temperature. And as you go higher latitudes, temperature drops far faster than irradiance. Which is why solar power in southern states is only moderately more productive than in New England or, for example, Germany.
- NovaEcosophy 7y agoThis is somewhat true but a side effect of PV is that its performance degrades with higher temperatures. It is possible to use panels output as thermometers they are so consistent in this behavior. I'm not saying they will stop working but merely they lose out in some potential.
- xavieralexandre 7y agoThe efficiency of photovoltaic tends to decrease with heat above 25°C. Storing energy is expensive.
- ljf 7y agoStoring energy is expensive - but as you can see - the value that the market has put upon this instant dispatch energy is also high.
- peteretep 7y agoCan you use the heat differential of underground former oil mines to pump the heat into?
- sokoloff 7y ago$9K / MWh for those who are curious. ($ alone as a unit is meaningless.)
- bufferoverflow 7y ago$9 per kWh is pretty out there.
- mabbo 7y agoIt sounds as though there is a hell of a market for energy storage in Texas. Tesla dropped that battery station into Australia on a very short timeline- they should try that again.
- i_am_proteus 7y ago> This week’s price spikes also underscore how dependent the region’s power grid has become on wind farms, which now make up about a quarter of the generation capacity in Texas. Lackluster breezes have contributed to the higher prices, Hehir said. > Wind power generation in the region has plunged for three straight days, grid data compiled by Bloomberg show. This happened in Australia earlier in the year. It's going to keep on happening, as long as the industry fails to account for the variance in output by wind power.
- hcurtiss 7y agoAnd the all-in cost of wind will be much greater when accounting for the gas support they require.
- WhompingWindows 7y agoWhich kind of gas? Base load gas yes, but not new gas peakers - solar+batteries is already cheaper than peakers. The problem is Texas is not a solar-friendly state, it will be hard for non-fossil/non-wind sources to penetrate heavily.
- ryanmarsh 7y agoThis is the spot price in an extremely seasonal futures market. This article is clickbait garbage. I have a few clients in this space. Texas, through ERCOT is a deregulated market. The “electricity company” or REP (retail electricity provider) merely purchases futures from ERCOT (the market maker) and bills you for your usage according to the pricing plan you have with them. In the end your provider must purchase from ERCOT at least as many MWh as their customers use. Distribution and maintenance is handled by various regional companies and factored into the price by ERCOT The market price is like a futures auction, of a commodity where demand peaks in August. This is why the spot price can be so ridiculous. The thing is, nobody pays the spot price. If a REP must pay the spot price in August (because of inadequate hedging) they almost always immediately become insolvent. It’s the “third rail” of this industry, touch it and you die. At that point secondary measures kick in to ensure those customers are not without power. If you have more questions please reply.
- tialaramex 7y agoYou mention that "nobody pays the spot price" but what effect does this price have then if nobody pays it? If I have a way to make, let's say, 30MW for up to 5 hours per day, and inject it into that system, could I get $9000 per MWh for that power during the period mentioned in the article? If I wouldn't get $9000 then what purpose does this price signal have? "Oh great, the notional price I won't actually get paid went up. I will be sure to increase the notional amount of electricity I don't actually make"
- jabl 7y agoEverybody (sane) is hedged. So while nobody per se pays the spot price, the spot price affects the parameters of the hedging contracts, PPA's, and whatnot.
- ryanmarsh 7y agoA few REP’s pay that price each year.... and they go out of business. The price is a reflection of the scarcity of generation and transmission capacity when its 101°F at 90% humidity and the entire state has the A/C on full blast. If you were plugged in with ERCOT as a generator (guessing you don’t have the millions to build one), and you were the last to get told to start up, and you were close to the source of the need, you most certainly could earn that much. That’s what “peaker plants” are. You’ve probably heard about how bad they pollute. Oh, and that price might only last for 15 minutes. If you’re generating electricity “behind the meter” (from solar panels) they usually agree to some nominal price but chances are if it’s that hot your system is using your panels to augment your grid usage.
- akeck 7y agoIs there a photovoltaic tech the uses infrared to take advantage directly of the heat?
- Dylan16807 7y agoThe maximum energy you can extract from a unit of heat is based on the temperature ratio of your hot object and your cold object. For light coming from the sun, the hot object is 6000K and the cold object is around 300K. So about 95% of the energy is available to attempt to capture. 94% if your solar panel gets very hot. The infrared coming off local hot objects is almost useless in comparison. If you can keep your infrared-catcher perfectly cooled with an underground loop, it will be at 290K. If you have an object that's all the way up at 150F, that's still only 340K and less than 15% of that energy could possibly be captured.
- wglb 7y agoPerhaps ycombinator should find team who can build the shipstone.
- trhway 7y agoOne would think it would be a slam dunk high profit business opportunity - come to TX, buy a cheap land, put solar panels and large battery, throw a power cable to the electric grid ... and just relax and watch the Niagara of money flowing into your bank account. It is pretty informative to meditate upon why such business opportunity is just a fantasy incompatible with the current reality.
- philipkglass 7y agoPeople are preparing to do just that: "Texas’ solar market is about to catch fire" With more than 5 GW of approved solar projects in the ERCOT grid, Texas is getting ready for a major boom in its utility-scale solar market. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/02/11/texas-solar-market-is-about-to-catch-fire/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/02/11/texas-solar-market-is... Though the Niagara of money is going to be more like a modest rivulet of money since prices like these happen only a few hours a year, and Texas generally has low wholesale electricity prices.
- jweir 7y agoPrices went up from a lack of wind and capacity. If you think solar is the solution stop and think. Solar occurs during peak demand. You will need more solar then demand. That is a lot of solar. Also when it gets really hot the wind often stops. Same goes for really cold. Wind farms often have to shutdown in cold conditions because of ice.