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Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- napolux 5mo agopolymarket should be illegal, challenge me.
- jongjong 5mo agoThe stock market should be illegal too. The stock market is just a prediction market at this point. What value does it create?
- napolux 5mo ago> The stock market is just a prediction market at this point. Not really. But I can get your point.
- bartvk 5mo agoThere's manipulation going on, but if you fight that, why do you feel that prediction markets should be illegal?
- brainwad 5mo agoProhibition just drives vices into a black market. In this case, probably just with VPNs to offshore betting markets where users would have less legal recourse. Nobody ever regulated insider trading in gambling _until_ the CFTC started authorising predictions markets.
- yakbarber 5mo agoThat's aweful, only senators should be allowed to do that!
- thewileyone 5mo ago[flagged]
- khazhoux 5mo agoYou can probably just say Trump
- tomaytotomato 5mo agoA UH60 Blackhawk with DEVGRU is heading to your location now </joke>
- elicash 5mo agoThe Senate unanimously changed their rules last month to explicitly block senators and staff from engaging in prediction markets. https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/senators-agree-to-block-themselves-trading-on-prediction-markets https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/senators-agr... The House has not (yet, at least) adopted any such rule.
- morkalork 5mo agoAnyone could have run the list of candidate names from the bets through google trends right?
- fragmede 5mo agoThere's an end-of-year Google trends wrapped that the employee pulled off an internal system before it was public.
- ElenaDaibunny 5mo agoForbes flagged this account back in December and it still took prosecutors months to charge him.
- Duwensatzaj 5mo agoYes, what did you expect? That’s amazingly fast for federal prosecutors.
- plqbfbv 5mo agoIt does take a while for all warrants to be in place, run the investigation and tie up all loose ends.. 6 months is fast by bureaucracy standards. The fact that he happened to be in NY is a lucky shot for the prosecutors.
- tonfa 5mo agoAlso they needed to wait for the person to travel to the US.
- wyldfire 5mo agoOf course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.
- NDlurker 5mo agoThe real money is in providing liquidity if you don't have insider knowledge.
- Onavo 5mo agoWell you either get XKCD 1570 or Jane Street. https://xkcd.com/1570/ https://xkcd.com/1570/ Not much in between. The efficient market hypothesis claims many victims.
- cosmojg 5mo agoThis is true of all markets.
- nostrademons 5mo agoThat's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices, who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they have better information.
- mikeweiss 5mo agoYou are correct, but you say this like the prediction markets are open about this fact. They aren't and if you ask them they will deny this.
- hoten 5mo agoI think they are open about it. John Oliver did a piece on it last month and I recall an interview where the founder of one of these prediction markets shared this as a beneficial effect of the product.
- kingleopold 5mo agoSo now the real bet he lost is salary + time for all those years he is going to prision + lower job for decades after prison. This person bet Millions to get $1M basically and lost both, very rare gambling level lost from smart(used to) person. At least normal gambler loses what they have and some debt.
- winter_blue 5mo agoHe was Staff-level as well. That's minimum $500k a year or more. And tenure often grows pay disproportionately at Google. That's easily $20 million lost.
- cbg0 5mo agoYou're making a bold assumption that this is the first time they're making money off of these bets.
- jezzamon 5mo agoIt's possible he had multiple accounts but seems unlikely, one reason he was caught was because he made a whole bunch of trades on markets related to "year in search", all on one account, and all the trades were perfect. If he was thinking about creating new accounts to obscure himself then he should have at least made each bet he placed on a seperate account. People (particularly those committing crimes) do frequently overlook things in inconsistent ways, so it's possible. But seems unlikely to me.
- 827a 5mo agoAnderson Cooper: But predictive markets do rely on someone having some inside information. Shayne Coplan: Uh-huh. Yeah. I think that people going and having an edge to the market is a good thing. Obviously, you need to curate them and you need to be really clear and stringent on where the line is drawn and, like, sort of ethics and we spend a lot of time on that. But it's sort of an inevitability that this will happen, and there's a lot of benefits from it. And, you know, people will adapt. [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-ceo-shayne-coplan-online-betting-platform-60-minutes-transcript/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polymarket-ceo-shayne-coplan-on...
- gammarator 5mo ago“and, like, sort of ethics”
- jcgrillo 5mo agothey spent a lot of time on it!
- kevmo314 5mo agoIf he had made less money doing it he probably would have gotten away with it.
- ChrisArchitect 5mo ago[dupe] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48301808 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48301808
- frakkingcylons 5mo agoIf you worked at Google for 12 years, it seems pretty irrational to commit this kind of crime for only $1M. Maybe there’s a chance he can get pardoned before 2029 lol
- Marsymars 5mo ago> If you worked at Google for 12 years, it seems pretty irrational to commit this kind of crime for only $1M. Kinda? It's not like people making an order of magnitude less don't get busted for crimes where they're stealing an order of magnitude less.
- VoidWhisperer 5mo agoI think the point the grandparent comment is trying to make is that at a staff level, and having been at google for 12 years, he was likely being paid pretty well, and that he could've made that same money longer term just by continuing to work at google
- dist-epoch 5mo ago[flagged]
- hawkice 5mo agoI feel like this pastiche burned through whatever comedy potential it had before mid-2017.
- lII1lIlI11ll 5mo ago> If you worked at Google for 12 years, it seems pretty irrational to commit this kind of crime for only $1M. Person who has been working in a single FAANG for decade+ without job-hopping could have had quite minor refreshers during their tenure, so you shouldn't automatically assume they are rich.
- onlypassingthru 5mo agoIf you're playing a poker game and you look around the table and and can't tell who the sucker is, it's you. - Paul Newman
- iririririr 5mo agoSo they hanged a nobody while the person who made even more with white house insider trading announcements by the president goes scotch free?
- jeroenhd 5mo agoTrump's family and their cronies have a free pardon waiting for them the day they get convicted. Better wait until the next regime shift, spending money on trying to prosecute the insiders now is just a waste of everyone's time and money. So far Trump has pardoned the 1/6 insurrectionists without any consequences, pardoning someone for a little white collar crime is barely going to hit the news cycle.
- solarkraft 5mo agoInteresting to see that insider trading is considered illegal after all. When will the white house insiders see the same fate?
- ramon156 5mo agoWell, you see, the house always wins
- plagiarist 5mo agoIn fascism, laws are for binding the out groups.
- mortsnort 5mo agoWhy are we wasting government money cracking down on Polymarket betting? The most offensive thing in this article is the government pretending Polymarket bets are securities. Prediction markets provide no benefit to society and don't need to exist.
- anonu 5mo agoIsn't that stock market a prediction market?
- tsimionescu 5mo agoNo, as the name sort of suggests, it's a stock market. As in, it's a place for people to buy stakes in companies, and occasionally a place for companies to raise money by selling stakes in themselves.
- il-b 5mo ago> (…) provide no benefit to society and don't need to exist. The sounds extremely fascist.
- Alpha3031 5mo agoTIL fascism is when you let states regulate gambling because of the public interest and lack of public benefit.
- small_scombrus 5mo agoFascism is when seatbelts
- thrance 5mo agoYou do not know what this word means, please consider educating yourself before using it again.
- brainwad 5mo ago> pretending Polymarket bets are securities No, they are pretending they are _commodities_. Pretending things are securities is disfavoured by the current administration.
- burnhamup 5mo agoI was curious how a man in Switzerland gets charged in the US for a placing bets on a site that doesn't allow the US to participate. The short answer seems to be that he stole private information from a US company and used that information to enrich himself. And then got that charge enhanced with things like wire fraud and transacting on systems involving US currency. And another commentor suggests that punishing insider traders in a step towards legitimzing and regulating prediction markets in the US.
- scheme271 5mo agoThe interesting part is that he got charged with insider trading. A few attorneys on bluesky have pointed out that this is a novel use of this law since previously the trading occurred on regulated markets (e.g. SEC or CFTC regulated markets like stock markets and commodities/futures exchanges).
- tsimionescu 5mo agoThese markets are regulated by the CFTC, currently, so what exactly is novel here?
- kasey_junk 5mo agoPoly market is not a us exchange. Kalshi is.
- tsimionescu 5mo agoSo is Polymarket US, the separate entity Polymarket created specifically for the USA.
- brainwad 5mo agoThe argument goes that because Polymarket (.com) doesn't effectively block US users, it is in practice operating in the US even though it claims not to be. Similar to how the EU claims jurisdiction over foreign sites that process EU citizen data for GDPR.
- profsummergig 5mo agoNSA employees must be the final boss of this kind of stuff.
- nielsbot 5mo agoSo are we going to regulate these things or what? See also: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/us/how-prediction-markets-and-crypto-firms-steamrolled-a-watchdog-agency.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/us/how-prediction-markets...
- seydor 5mo agoWell at least if they were gambling they wouldn't be in danger of arrest. A few more cases like this and people will go back to gambling
- wg0 5mo agoMeanwhile His Royal Highness is free to do as he please. Got even life time immunity deal as well
- AtNightWeCode 5mo agoHow could this be insider trading? Polymarket has nothing to do with financial securities. A bet on Polymarket is like trading any other crypto asset.
- tsimionescu 5mo agoPolymarket US is only able to operate in the USA because it is being regulated by the CFTC as a securities market. Otherwise, they would have been seen as a gambling site and would have been banned virtually everywhere.
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- cm2187 5mo agoI am confused. Are bets considered securities? I thought the CFTC and insider dealing laws applied to securities, not betting.
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- tsimionescu 5mo agoIf they recognize they are betting companies, they have no right to operate in the majority of the states. So, they found the CFTC willing to pretend that these betting contracts are in fact securities, and that is how they can legally operate.
- rafram 5mo agoCommodities, not securities. The CFTC doesn’t regulate securities.
- efitz 5mo agoI’m completely failing to get outraged here. I think that the person misused Google internal information and deserves termination or other discipline, but I’m struggling to otherwise see the harm in what they did. Is insider trading a crime on prediction markets? Doesn’t it contribute to the accuracy of the pricing of prediction contracts, and therefore is good for the prediction market?
- epolanski 5mo agoI’m completely failing to get outraged here. I think that the person that a/b/c deserves prison or other discipline, but I’m struggling to otherwise see the harm in what they did. Is insider trading a crime on prediction markets? Doesn’t it contribute to the accuracy of the pricing of prediction contracts, and therefore is good for the prediction market? a. started fires in California b. lobbied the president to attack Iran c. neglected critical aid spreading Ebola By the way there are reasons why we ban sport people from betting or insiders to disclose their (and relatives) trades to the sec: incentives. It seems like the prediction market crowd cannot understand the economics of incentives and their harmful consequences. Even though we already see the harm in the real world with journalists receiving death threats for reporting news or randoms tampering with meteorological equipment to win bets. And that's only what we know.
- tsimionescu 5mo ago> Is insider trading a crime on prediction markets? Yes, it is both against the CFTC's regulations and against the companies' T&Cs. > Doesn’t it contribute to the accuracy of the pricing of prediction contracts, and therefore is good for the prediction market? That's irrelevant, the purpose of these markets is to provide fair bets for entertainment, not information.
- shric 5mo agoI’m curious how he got caught. Polymarket accounts should be untraceable
- dormento 5mo agoProb googled "how to bet with privileged info and not get caught".
- plqbfbv 5mo ago> Polymarket accounts should be untraceable The funding/retrieval chain normally isn't if you want to spend the money in real world goods and services.
- jezzamon 5mo agoThere's another way to find out, which is to track things from the other side. Highly likely Google has access logs on the data.
- jongjong 5mo agoWow. WTF does this say about Google algorithmic manipulation if an employee can predict specific search results to such a granular extent... Down to a specific artist. Google is rigged.
- plqbfbv 5mo ago> if an employee can predict specific search results to such a granular extent It's not a prediction, it's a query in a tool/database that's supposed to hold counts. There's no rigging here - it's just a summary of historical data being accessed and used before being public, in violation of confidentiality agreements. If he had just sourced the data without acting on it, the system would have still logged somewhere, but likely nobody would have looked at it. My understanding is that the last couple weeks before being released won't dramatically change counts unless an extraordinary event happens that drowns the last 11 months of data.
- spwa4 5mo agoIs that even illegal?
- swingboy 5mo agoWhat would happen if some regular Joe, completely unrelated to any other user, watched for bets that could signal insider information and made significant profit themselves, too?
- leifmetcalf 5mo agoThis is a trade that is already done by trading businesses. It doesn’t even need to be this explicit; you could for instance dispose one side of a trade to reduce exposure to insiders.
- mikeodds 5mo agofair number of people do this, bunch of free tools to filter by this criteria (brand new account, more than $xx,xxx size), vulnerable to spoofing obviously
- TrackerFF 5mo agoThat's called "copy trading", which has been around for decades. If there's no connection between you and the trade you're copying, there's nothing you can be charged with. Normally there's a natural latency between the "signal" trade (i.e. the trade to copy), and the copy trade, which obviously can alter the profitability. This latency can range from sub-seconds if there's some public ledger, to days/weeks/months if the info is due to disclosure. Obviously when it comes to crypto and public ledgers, we're on the former. But as soon as you place such trades based on insider trading, that's insider trading.
- tempoponet 5mo agoThis is where a lot of the crypto scammers on x have moved, selling ai/bots to do this. It seems like the odds slip significantly after these large bets are filled.
- deleted 5mo ago[deleted]
- aldanor 5mo agoAnd that lad is of course an information security engineer
- stego-tech 5mo agoLike it’s nice to see someone get charged for using insider knowledge to win at prediction markets, but are we seriously just going to say this is the first big case and not any of the suspiciously accurate accounts created immediately before Iran War events? I fucking hate this double standard hypocrisy. Leading by example means if your political or corporate leaders can game the system then so can you, I say.
- pgraf 5mo agoPretty ironic find: Extracting knowledge from cryptocurrencies - Michele Spagnuolo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9P04hm7tmgs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9P04hm7tmgs
- ericyd 5mo agoInteresting the federal government can't seem to find the resources to investigate their own internal insider trading related to war and foreign policy.
- tjwebbnorfolk 5mo agohttps://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-bets https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas...
- julianozen 5mo agoSo, after doing some light Googling and AI research, this doesn’t seem to be strictly an “insider trading” charge from the SEC. It looks more like a broader fraud case. The charges are commodities fraud / Commodity Exchange Act violation, wire fraud, and money laundering, and the case is being brought by the DOJ. So, lawyers, please correct me if I’m wrong, but this feels more like prosecutors found a legal framework to charge him for conduct that resembles insider trading. By contrast, if he had sold Google stock based on insider knowledge, that would have more directly implicated SEC insider trading rules. So, functionally, it feels like an insider trading case, but technically, it isn’t one.
- mhluongo 5mo agoMy understanding - "insider trading" is specifically for securities, and brought by the SEC. The equivalent for commodities is called "market manipulation", brought by the CFTC. Market manipulation is a much harder thing to prove than insider trading. This kind of reminds me of the OpenSea "insider trading" scandal. [0] Not a lawyer, not legal advice, etc. [0] - https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2025/09/second-circuit-vacates-nft-insider-trading-conviction-in-united-states-v-chastain-clarifies-property-rights-in-confidential-information-under-wire-fraud-statute https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2025/09/...
- selectodude 5mo agoYeah I’m not entirely sure how what he did was illegal. I hope he can afford good attorneys. Hard to see this as anything other than a way to take the heat off the White House for using insider information to profit on prop betting sites.
- lesuorac 5mo agoThe charges are a bit funny. [1] "From at least in or about October 2025 up to and including at least in or about December 2025, in the Southern District of New York and elsewhere outside of the jurisdiction of any particular State or district of the United States". Um yes, everywhere is either inside of or outside of the jurisdiction of SDNY. But argueable, if you're charging somebody it only matters if it's _inside of_. [1]: https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/media/1442621/dl https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/media/1442621/dl
- Aardwolf 5mo ago> He did not enter a plea and was released on a $2.25 million bond I'm not familiar with the US system of bond. Is this payment a kind of fine that you don't get back, or a temporary payment? And what does it give you? I mean if prosecuted you get prison anyway, right?
- bpicolo 5mo agoIt’s temporary, yes. Basically just collateral to promise you’ll show up for the court hearings. Often they’re paid through bondsman who finance bonds (you pay them a fee). Which also results in a bounty hunting industry for the people that do run away.
- conductr 5mo agoAlso of note, if you can’t pay the fee or give the bondsman some collateral for his service, your court date may be many months or even years in the future and the date can be postponed many times along the way. So you will be in jail that whole time. If you’re given a prison sentence, time served is usually applied towards it. If you’re found innocent or otherwise not given a prison sentence, your life was just ruined. It’s kind of a bad deal but mostly hurts the poor so nobody cares to fix it. Innocent until proven guilty is kind of a lie. The US has so many edge cases like this where our US Constitutional rights have been severely neutered.
- tekla 5mo agoThere is some differences between bail and bond, but basically the same thing. Is a payment that lets you out of prison until trial under conditions. If you break conditions, payment is forfeited, but returned otherwise This is because time to trial/actual trial itself can take a long time and there is generally dislike of keeping a person in confinement on the chance they are innocent.
- ajb257 5mo agoIt's temporary, yes. If you show up for your court date it's returned to you - it's collateral.
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- T3RMINATED 5mo ago[dead]
- TomMasz 5mo agoIsn't this been what some (so far) unnamed Trump administration people have been doing?
- Yizahi 5mo agoWait what? What "bets"? Bets can happen only on the gambling sites, and Polymarket is definitely not one of those, right? Poly is a prediction market, rewarding the person with the best prediction. How can there be "insider trading" on a site rewarding best information? The USA corporate and regulatory hypocrisy is off the charts :)
- rldjbpin 5mo agoprediction markets have become like the "modern" version of crypto "get rich quick" mania of the nft era. grifters gonna grift where they see an opportunity. also got the money printer turned on for some while the others resort to "chance" (fair or otherwise) to get paid.
- sspoisk 5mo ago[flagged]
- edge_trader_41 5mo ago[dead]