22 ms·

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More

• IlikeMadison 7mo ago
  Germany has 80+ mil inhabitants. Also 90,000,000 people doesn't mean 90,000,000 soldiers, especially when a large part of them hate their own regime.
  • Animats 7mo ago
    Right re 80 million in Germany. After a bombing campaign, most of the people tend to hate whoever bombed them.
    • mathgradthrow 7mo ago
      I don't believe you understand how modern bombs work.
      • kelnos 7mo ago
        They seem to work not very well, considering the number civilians they've killed in Iran.
        • Windchaser 7mo ago
          Supposedly the issue was less bomb accuracy and more bad intel
          • kergonath 7mo ago
            Does it matter, at this point? If you go and tell someone who’s lost their home and half their family in a strike, "oops, it was just bad intel", do they hate you less?
            • Windchaser 7mo ago
              Oh no, if anything I think bad intel is probably worse
          • kakacik 7mo ago
            its always that, and absolutely nobody cares
            • foxglacier 7mo ago
              I sometimes wonder if our modern philosophy of requiring intentionality for crimes is the wrong way. You can launder intentionality be not trying too hard. If you try really weakly, it's called negligence but even that isn't as morally bad as intentionality. Perhaps we should forget about trying to read the mind of a state or criminal and only judge them by their actions. In my country, punishments for killing people with deliberate violence varies from 8 months home detention (bus driver punched a passenger in the face, knocking him out so he fell backward and cracked his head on the ground), to several decades (man grabbed scissors from the kitchen, ran to his ex girlfriend's room, and stabbed her repeatedly). Both victims are equally dead but the courts decided that the perpetrators' feelings mattered far more than what they did. Perhaps if the bus driver had been weaker and needed a weapon, he'd be in prison for 10 years instead of free? Perhaps if the ex-boyfriend had used his fists outdoors on a concrete pavement, he'd be free? Seems grossly unfair.
  • kelnos 7mo ago
    I bet that "large part" isn't thrilled about the US bombing civilians, including children, either.
  • alsetmusic 7mo ago
    > Also 90,000,000 people doesn't mean 90,000,000 soldiers, especially when a large part of them hate their own regime. You know what engenders nationalism? Attack on your way of life and the murder of someone you know by said attack.
    • tommica 7mo ago
      If my countrymen were killed by my government by the thousands, I'd not be super happy about defending that government. If the enemy does the same kind of mindless killing to the civilians, then I would have different ideas.
      • kakacik 7mo ago
        Who cares if you are super happy, you get force-drafted with alternative either harsh deadly jail or firing squad. You have 10 seconds to decide. Good luck on having strong opinions in such case.
        • tommica 7mo ago
          That seems a bit dramatic - do you have sources for the things you mentioned? I'd like to learn more.
      • zarzavat 7mo ago
        The truth barely matters anymore. People believe whatever they want to believe, or whatever they are told to believe. You can be sure that Iranians are being blasted with propaganda just the same as Americans are being blasted with propaganda, except that currently Iran is cut off from the internet so the effect is much stronger. You can't say for sure that you wouldn't wilfully join up if you were in that kind of information environment.
        • tommica 7mo ago
          Information does go around even without the internet - doubt that iranians do not know about the things their government is doing in those mass executions.
  • ifwinterco 7mo ago
    German geography makes it much easier to invade (most of the country except for the far south is a relatively flat plain). And it still wasn't much fun for the troops who had to do it in 1944 and 1945 even against a significantly weakened force fighting on multiple fronts at once
  • refurb 7mo ago
    Indeed it’s an odd argument. The regime is immensely unpopular. If it weren’t for the murderous crackdown they would have been overthrown long ago.
    • don_esteban 7mo ago
      There is a good case to be made that if it weren't for the consistent pressure, sanctions and assassinations from US/Israel, the moderates would have prevailed in Iran.
    • expedition32 7mo ago
      Saddam was immensely unpopular. The Taliban was immensely unpopular. It doesn't mean that people like America- or Israel. Every country has it's own elite who have their agenda independent from whatever the White House wants.
• asa400 7mo ago
  > Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which any attack on the US homeland, however small or local, is met with anything other than overwhelming retribution. Having difficulty projecting force from the air with fighter bombers launched from air craft carriers and refueling caravans from the Indian Ocean or Mediterranean Sea against a determined enemy that has been preparing for this eventuality since 1979 is one thing. Being able to fly non-stop B-52 and B-2 sorties from home air bases with single-digit-hour flight times is a different thing entirely.
  • maxglute 7mo ago
    The real thought experiment is ~600m people in central/south American within ~6000km, i.e. IRBM range of US gulf coast, where ~50% of US oil refinery and LNG plant production are. Now that Iran has validated mid tier power can cobble together precision strike complex, it's only going to be matter of time before relatively wealthier countries realize only way out of M/Donroe is to build conventional strike against US strategic infra. This stuff going to get commoditized sooner than later with competing mega constellation ISR. It's pretty clear building up conventional airforce/navy etc will simply get overmatched vs US projection and only credible deterrence is PRC style rocket force. There's a fuckload of places to hide 8x8 missile launchers in the Americas. E: 50% of PRODUCTION, not plants, as in a few plants responsible for 50% of US refinery / LNG production.
    • alsetmusic 7mo ago
      Downvoting a description of a technical solution for smaller nations based on actual evidence from existing conflicts is silly. You might not like the politics you perceive from someone using particular vocabulary, but the proof is there. The USA's supremacy has been challenged in a meaningful way (along with every other major military power). The strategies of the large powers will have to evolve.
• angled 7mo ago
  Bush and his son in one gulf, Bobby and his in another. Crisis after crisis.
• mathgradthrow 7mo ago
  You think the pentagon was like "shit, Iran is bigger than we thought"?
  • onion2k 7mo ago
    Of course not, but it's very believable that the current administration ignored what the pentagon told them.
  • gherkinnn 7mo ago
    I am certain that Hegseth is facing several, "shit!" moments, at least one of them along those limes, yes.
    • smackeyacky 7mo ago
      He doesn’t show any signs of that kind of introspection. The simple answer as to how he is conducting this war is the best one. He’s a fucking moron.
  • baq 7mo ago
    Pentagon, absolutely not. The current USA leadership, I’m afraid it isn’t impossible.
  • Jackpillar 7mo ago
    If you've been paying attention you'd understand that (1) the US military brass has been almost entirely replaced by MAGA stooges who think the rapture is real and (2) Trump and co 100% thought they could Maduro-esque behead the IRGC and this would be over in a week. The military officials who (correctly) dare not attack Iran aren't in any positions of power any longer.
  • 8bitchemistry 7mo ago
    God created war so that Americans would learn geography. Like Trump's obsession with Greenland because he does not understand the Mercator projection...
  • mdni007 7mo ago
• meitham 7mo ago
  The global Shia’s population is even larger than Russia’s population, and more willing to fight the US/Israel. Russia is of course superior to Iran technologically but Iran has the larger support worldwide.
  • baq 7mo ago
    Russia is a buyer of Iranian drone tech. Iran has also done a very good job marketing their maneuvering reentry vehicles in the last couple weeks.
    • meitham 7mo ago
      Agreed. Minus the nuclear and air defence, Iran is more advanced than US and Russia in many other weapons capabilities.
  • mortarion 7mo ago
    Russian military technology has not evolved since the 90s
    • wiseowise 7mo ago
      The point still stands.
• hax0ron3 7mo ago
  I agree with some of your points, but I'm not sure about the drones. I don't think the kind of drone you can build with a lawnmower engine would be likely to do any significant damage to any but the smallest ship. And the US/Israel coalition has a much greater airpower advantage enabling them to target drone production than Russia does. Cuba is in no shape to do anything. Even if they had drones, the leadership there is very unlikely to use them since doing so would result with almost 100% probability in the US killing or capturing them.
  • swiftcoder 7mo ago
    > I don't think the kind of drone you can build with a lawnmower engine would be likely to do any significant damage to any but the smallest ship It's not really a lawnmower engine, but the L550E clones used in the Shahed drone are roughly the same scale as a big lawnmower engine (higher power/weight, but similar horsepower), and they've successfully taken out $100 million radar installations.
• finnjohnsen2 7mo ago
  TIL: Germany (85m) has almost the same population as Iran (90m)
  • fransje26 7mo ago
    > Iran has 90,000,000 people. [..] More than 2x Germany. TIL: Germany has less than 45m inhabitants. Less than Spain! /s
• _s_a_m_ 7mo ago
  > Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. Germany has 83.000.000 people
• LarsDu88 7mo ago
  Don't forget the coastal geography. Iran's coastline in the Persian gulf is longer than California's coastline, and they can do drone attacks anywhere in the Gulf, not just the narrow strait portion that everyone seems to focus on. Cuba allying with Iran is pure fantasy though. There's no logistical connection between the two nations. It would be as irrelevant as Greenland allying with Antarctica.
• mmooss 7mo ago
  > This is a real problem for the U.S. Navy, because they've invested heavily in craft intended to operate near hostile shores. It's a great sign for the US military as a whole: That is the primary American tactic to defeat China, using land forces hidden on the First Island Chain with anti-ship missiles, to control the seas around China. More here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47584795 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47584795
• riffraff 7mo ago
  Germany has 80M people.
• _zoltan_ 7mo ago
  it's not 2x Germany. Germany is ~83.5M.
• citrin_ru 7mo ago
  > Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine Population size is relevant but not the most important factor. Russia has 146,000,000, more than 4x than Ukraine. It doesn't guarantee that Russia will win the war. > On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. Ukraine also had Bayraktar TB2 overhead which distracted Moskva's crew and provided targeting information. Russia probably didn't sent a fighter to down it because skies around Ukraine are contested. Skies not only around but over Iran are not reallty contested. Having said that Iran could sink an american ship if the navy will become complaicent and will assume there are no threats. > The size of Iran means that knocking out drone and missile production for long won't work. Russia has been trying to do that to Ukraine for years now. Russia cannot fly planes over Ukranian territory. The US can fly not only F-35 but even B-52. That's a big difference. The only thing which could prevent the US from knowking out missile and drone production is insufficient intellegence.
  • tobyhinloopen 7mo ago
    Russia is the aggressor, Iran is a defender. That’s a huge difference.
    • mdni007 7mo ago
      [flagged]
  • mamonster 7mo ago
    >The US can fly not only F-35 but even B-52 There is, at this point in time, literally 0 evidence B-52s are flying over Iran with JDAMs. Every single photo we saw of B-52s literally shows them with AGM-158, which means they are launching outside Iran aerospace. The biggest evidence for B-52s not flying over Iran is that there have still not been any losses. Go look at attrition rates in Linebacker 2 for comparison.
    • bwv848 7mo ago
      OSINTechinical literally had one yesterday https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2038625975332692466 https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2038625975332692466
• reeredfdfdf 7mo ago
  Cuba can barely keep electricity on amid fuel shortages and ancient infrastructure. They are in no position to fight a war, and don't really have a strong ideological force like IRGC in Iran. The ruling elites are way more likely to make a deal that allows them to keep their heads.
  • adrian_b 7mo ago
    The "fuel shortages" are caused by the blockade started by USA a few months ago, which has also threatened with an actual unprovoked attack against Cuba. Even just the blockade cannot be considered as anything else but an act of war, even if, as usual, USA does not declare the wars it starts. In the past, USA at least made attempts to appear that it follows the international laws, but today it makes great efforts to perfectly match the stereotype of the lawless "Imperialist Americans" that was used in the past in the propaganda of the former communist countries. Any act of war that Cuba would ever do against USA would be perfectly justified by the already done actions of USA, which make random Cubans suffer from serious shortages.
• notepad0x90 7mo ago
  Why do you think the number of people in Iran matters? I think most of what you said is just speculation, not founded on reality. The only thing that would stop the US from invading Iran in under 3 months is political will. Russia doesn't have the scale and power of the US airforce, or the ability to project that power using the US navy and all the bases in the middle-east. Any comparison with russia at all makes me question your entire analysis. Iran is big and geographically challenging, Afghanistan is notorious in the same sense as well, even more so by their infamous defeat and expelling of Russia in the 80's. The US invaded afghanistan in a matter of 1-2 months and held on to the country for 20 years. Establishing a FOB initially will be challenging but with Kuwait and KSA eagerly cooperating, it won't be a challenge. Drones are effective when your enemy is nearby and you can project it against them. Iran can threaten just about any US interest in the region but not the US homeland itself. They can't attack Europe because that would risk drawing them into the conflict, so their only option is to attack existing enemies in the region and do their best to inflate the price of oil. And therein is their strategy that might win the war, it isn't all the reasons you listed, but political will as a result of economic pressure. The US lost in Afghanistan, Vietnam, and even arguably in Iraq because of loss of political will to continue the conflict. But then again, the current administration will not be deterred by pesky things such as the will of the american people, they'll use it to declare emergencies and attempt to hold on to power instead. The only thing that can defeat the US right now is the republican party in the US willing to turn on their beloved dictator. > Ukraine has people making them in basements. Presumably, so does Iran. The US has bunker-busters. Even though your analysis is full of many technical flaws the most critical flaw in my opinion is how you aren't considering aerial advantage for the US, but yet you seem to think drones are an advantage. Drones are only useful at attacking pre-determined regional targets to influence political will. For the US however, unlike Russia, the US doesn't have a decrepit airforce, and doesn't flinch at launching $70~M/launch tomahawks. The ukrainain army right now isn't withstanding a constant barrage of bomber jets dropping on them. Russia is several decades behind US equivalent fleets from what I understand. The US military hasn't been sitting on their hands watching the Russia-Ukraine conflict either. They've been testing all kinds of anti-drone tech in the desert for a while now, but this is the real opportunity for them to battle-test different techniques. No one is sanctioning the US either (more like sanctioning itself), and there is no real or practical shortage of war-chest funds (unlike Russia), and having a big war every two decades means the US military-industrial complex far more capable to meet the supply-chain logistics demands. The US military certainly is the biggest in the world, dwarfing all other countries' militaries combined. But the thing most people don't realize is that is not what makes it the most capable invading force in the world, it is the sheer efficiency of the logistical effectiveness unseen the history of war before, backed by the ability to fund years-long wars without so much as flinching on the domestic economy front. I would argue that the if the political will existed, the US can invade the entire region, from the Mediterranean to the Himalayas in less time than how long Russia has been at war with Ukraine. Even if the US couldn't use the bases and airspace in Europe at all, the calculus remains the same. > This worked a lot better when the trouble spots couldn't do much to them. Huh? what do you mean? They're entirely designed to address hostilities, they're not designed establish access in a non-hostile littoral, this goes back to WW2 beachead establishments (like normandy). The carrier ships are never meant to be close to land to where they're a target, but the carrier group itself is entirely designed to establish a beachead and deploy an expeditionary force under hostile conditions. I admit, maybe my history recall is lacking, do you know of any post-WW2 conflicts where the US navy established a beach head as part of an invading force that didn't face both aerial and naval resistance? Iran and Afghanistan didn't require it, neither did Korea or Vietnam as far as I know.
• mattmanser 7mo ago
  Just to note, Germany has 83 million people, so not 2x Germany.
• sveme 7mo ago
  Sorry, irrelevant to what you‘re saying, but Germany has 85 mio inhabitants. You might mistake it for Poland.
• b112 7mo ago
  A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. There is value in much of what you're saying in your post, even though I don't necessarily agree 100% with all of it. However, no one involved in planning or starting this attack, underestimated the size of Iran at all. All of that would have been covered by all briefings. The US admin and military knew all of this, and frankly has planned all of this. The US has some of the most capable spy networks, knowledge, and military experience on the planet. And yes, even the current admin takes advantage of this. So the real question is, what is the end goal? None of the noise we hear from mouthpieces is really it. I suspect that causing trillions in damage to Iran is likely simply it. A bloody nose. I'd be astonished if 1000s of exit strategies weren't deep planned, maybe a dozen best-outcomes planned, before a single plane bombed anything. The US knows how to exit this. The US military, and daily briefings have all covered every aspect of what's been happening in the Ukraine war. They know. They've been studying it. They're not surprised by it. They 100% knew that Iran has been supplying drones to Russia in vast quantities. What I strongly suspect is that Iran is being given a message. One it didn't listen to when it was bombed months ago. Don't help Russia. Don't align with China. Don't sell oil to China. And also? Right now, all those drones made-in-Iran? All the munitions. All the missiles. All the tech they've been shipping Russia? It's ground to a complete halt. So whether or not Iran was stubbornly going to continue to export these things to Russia, it can't, as it needs them domestically now. Russia is now cut off from that supply chain, because Iran needs it for itself. If you look at what's happening, Russia has been forced to withdraw from the world stage as it is bled dry by the Ukraine war. It first pulled back from Syria, and it (Assad) fell. It pulled out of Cuba, out of Venezuela, all troops and aircraft and support. Russia has ceased to be a world power, it's literally done. It's become nothing but a regional power, incapable of projecting any power on the world stage. The Ukraine war is serving its purpose. The West and the US are only supplying enough weaponry to keep Russia bleeding. Never enough weaponry for the Ukraine to win, never enough support, the US just trickles weaponry to them. The Ukraine just serves one purpose -- keep Russia fighting, keep it off the world stage, keep it bleeding all its power and might until it's a complete empty husk. Yet as Russia has pulled back, China has attempted to moved to fill that vacuum. It's been buying oil from places like Venezuela, and Iran. It was extending soft power into Cuba. The US cannot tolerate this, and back to the start, I suspect that this is also a secondary message being given. A message to China. "Don't do this". Cutting Russia and China off, each for different reasons, could be viewed as a good success for the US. My thoughts are -- what's next? What other thing does the US want to cut off from China, and Russia? Because I suspect that's where things will pivot to. -- (One thought here is, about exit strategies, is that just walking away and leaving the straight Hormuz a mess, will literally force Western allies to police that straight with their navies. The US has been pulling back from policing shipping lanes world wide over the last 20 years, and unhappy with its allies for not taking up the slack, or what it deems a "fair share". With Hormuz, US allies will be forced to take up the slack, an interesting outcome. This too would be an immense success for the US.)
• helsinkiandrew 7mo ago
  > The US can't just pull out, either. The enemy gets a vote on when it's over. Israel, Iran, and Yemen now all have to agree Is that really true? Just claim that Iran's Nuclear ambitions have been destroyed, and anyone who needs oil can "Buy it from the US or get it themselves from Hormuz" - mission accomplished! With the US withdrawing (or atleast not attacking), Iran can stop the drone attacks and open Hormuz - collecting fees from passing ships, call it reparations and a win!
  • nemomarx 7mo ago
    How to get Israel to back down in that scenario? They seem pretty committed to keeping this going.
    • NickC25 7mo ago
      This is what everyone misses. Bibi has been found guilty by his own court system of gross corruption. Bibi tried to neuter his country's court system as a result, which pissed off a lot of Israel's population. Everything from 10/7 onward has been done to encourage Israelis to rally 'round the flag and keep fighting the enemy. Bibi goes to jail if the perma-war stops. Bibi does not want to go to jail.
      • jalapenoj 7mo ago
        He can just move to the US and order the senate to take turns kissing his feet.
        • NickC25 7mo ago
          I live in SoFLA and have seen one of his kids around town a few times. The kid is 110% all-in on the "chosen people" mantra and seems to think everyone is beneath him. Miami Beach's jewish population loves him. Ironically enough, I do business frequently with a secular Israeli dude who has introduced me into some of the circles he runs in (mainly other secular Israelis), and they all seem to despise Benjamin "Nutty-Yahoo" Mielekowski and his ilk.
• DaedalusII 7mo ago
  "Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. " >Germany's population is approximately 83.5 to 84.1 million as of early 2026 agree with analysis of iran industry etc, cant see cuba happening. usmil could roll over cuba in a few months and the local population probably wouldnt be hostile
• kakacik 7mo ago
  > The US can't just pull out, either. Watch orange man pull that one out. There are no rules of behavior anymore, he can do whatever the fuck he wants, laws, treaties, morals, future and so on be damned, ego whims dominate the decision chain. Who is going to do anything. The only exception is israel, they seem to have a massive leverage on him and utilize it to the fullest. Also he and his clan are heavily gaining from insider trading on those huge swings, we talk about billions here on just closest circle and everybody knows this. Also, US is gaining on big oil prices, another reason to sow more chaos. Not happy times ahead.
  • ErroneousBosh 7mo ago
    > The only exception is israel, they seem to have a massive leverage on him and utilize it to the fullest. That's a funny way to spell "kompromat".
• m_mueller 7mo ago
  90M > 2x Germany? You might wanna check your math on that...
• talideon 7mo ago
  Germany has a population of ~87,000,000 though.
• sankhao 7mo ago
  Germany has over 83M people.
• zimpenfish 7mo ago
  > Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. According to [0], in 2025 Iran had 86M people. Ukraine had 29M (~33%), Germany (highest in Europe) had 83M (~96%, uh?), Iraq had 46M (~53%), and Russia had 146M (~168% / ~59% reversed). Wildly, wildly wrong about Germany but not too far off the rest[1]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependen... [1] Although if you include Turkey in "Europe", "more than any country in Europe" droops a little because Turkey's 86092168 (99.456%) is basically identical to Iran's 86563000 when it comes to projection and estimation errors.
  • cherryteastain 7mo ago
    Presumably they meant WW2 Germany.
    • jabron 7mo ago
      Germany's population in 1938 was higher. Around 86 million.
      • lava_pidgeon 7mo ago
        It was 78 Million https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/NS-Staat https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/NS-Staat
        • jabron 7mo ago
          Huh, not sure where I got the 86 number from, because I did check a primary source. Probably a mixup with a later number that included annexed territory. If you're interested: https://digi.bib.uni-mannheim.de/werksansicht/57050/59/einzelseiten/nogridview?ht=56993&cHash=60a9e67d36fcdc0f5223450f274f6738 https://digi.bib.uni-mannheim.de/werksansicht/57050/59/einze...
  • ap99 7mo ago
    [flagged]
• cycomanic 7mo ago
  > A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. Not necessarily disagreeing with your other points, but Germany has a population of ~84 million, so comparable size.
• bob1029 7mo ago
  > Mass-produced drones today are a simple airframe, a lawnmower engine, and the smarts of a cell phone. Ukraine has people making them in basements. Presumably, so does Iran. The ships the LCS are intended to replace are significantly more capable at absorbing damage from this type of threat. If you are willing to go up to destroyer class, you are probably approaching immunity for this scenario. > Former CIA intelligence officer Robert Finke said the blast appeared to be caused by C4 explosives molded into a shaped charge against the hull of the boat.[6] More than 1,000 pounds (450 kg) of explosive were used.[7] Much of the blast entered a mechanical space below the ship's galley, violently pushing up the deck, thereby killing crew members who were lining up for lunch.[8] The crew fought flooding in the engineering spaces and had the damage under control after three days. Divers inspected the hull and determined that the keel had not been damaged. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Cole_bombing
• gmerc 7mo ago
  Can we just appreciate that if we’re at a place where anyone “makes mistakes appreciating scale” in the space age, we have much bigger problems
• tim333 7mo ago
  I figure the US was aware of the scale of Iran. It seems the US were talking with about three possible people in the Iranian government who could take over like what happened in Venezuela but their initial strikes killed them all which was a bit of a screw up. (Trump vid https://youtu.be/Zokz9DJ0KhI https://youtu.be/Zokz9DJ0KhI)
  • watwut 7mo ago
    And the expectation was that IRGC and Islamists just accepts that and Israel stops bombing Iran at that point? Why would Israel find that sufficient considering that would give them nothing? And the other thing is that I just dont understand how that can be called a regime change. Venezuela was not regime change either - Venezuelan regime stayed exactly the same as before, but now USA is co-responsible for the abuses.
• chadash 7mo ago
  I’m not sure I agree with your argument but all of it made sense until you started talking about Cuba. Iran knows that the US population really really doesn’t want a ground invasion. Right now, we have lost a handful of lives from missiles hitting US bases, but it’s not the same as a ground war. Cuba, however, would very much get a ground invasion if they start striking the US with missiles. It’s not even a question. And I also assume their leaders are not religious fanatics with any interest in martyrdom.
  • kdheiwns 7mo ago
    Iran also knows that Americans don't want high gas prices so they targeted Americans' wallets from the outset. If even a half-assed invasion attempt existed that so much as involved a single dock being damaged, the psychological damage to America would be intense. America hasn't really been invading in, what, 2 centuries? War is a thing that happens "over there", never at home. It's easy to dissociate and pretend it doesn't affect you. Once people realize they've poked a bear, regret sinks in fast.
• maplethorpe 7mo ago
  Wait, wasn't the Iranian military obliterated? What do they have left?
• dmos62 7mo ago
  I like the size and population take, but the industry perspective is bad: Russia doesn't have air superiority. US and Israel do. Cuba becoming a base for Shaed drones? You are out of touch with how much industry you need for that. They are cheap, but they are not FPVs or off-the-shelf Mavics.
• fny 7mo ago
  The big mistake was underestimating the appetite for rebellion despite 70%-80% wholesale opposition to the regime.[0] I personally know many, many Iranians who welcome the attacks along with their families. All of the high-profile assassinations involve intelligence from Iranians. However, no one has guns, and government-backed militias roam the streets to maintain order.[1] There is no possibility of military coup. Many officers lives and livelihoods are at stake post-revolution, and they will go to great lengths to protect it. Remember, they killed 30K of their own to quell an uprising.[2] Surveillance is everywhere online and in person.[3] One spy in ten can ruin a revolutionary group. To make things worse, there is no unification around a leader or what should come next. If anything, this war demonstrates the tyranny and tentacles of the modern state. The well seems forever poisoned once power is lost to despots. [0]: https://gamaan.org/2025/08/20/analytical-report-on-iranians-political-preferences-in-2024/ https://gamaan.org/2025/08/20/analytical-report-on-iranians-... [1]: https://www.npr.org/2026/03/19/g-s1-114144/iran-voices-war https://www.npr.org/2026/03/19/g-s1-114144/iran-voices-war [2]: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jan/27/iran-protests-death-toll-disappeared-bodies-mass-burials-30000-dead https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jan/27/i... [3]: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-built-a-vast-camera-network-to-control-dissent-israel-used-it-to-track-targets-ap-sources-say https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-built-a-vast-camera-...
  • ekianjo 7mo ago
    > Remember, they killed 30K of their own to quell an uprising.[2] There is absolutely no way to know if it's true or not
    • bluGill 7mo ago
      There are ample indepentant sources for that estimate. We don't know an exact number but we know it is close to that.
      • johnbarron 7mo ago
        [flagged]
• pylua 7mo ago
  Cuba would be bombed off the map if that happened.
• DanielHB 7mo ago
  I saw a teardown of an Ukrainian drone a while ago and I was surprised how similar the setup was to the IoT project I worked on. I could be setting up a good chunk of the software part of a similar system myself and I am not that specialized of an engineer.
• lynx97 7mo ago
  > More than 2x Germany. Nope, your numbers are way off.
• jojomodding 7mo ago
  Not sure where you get your numbers from but 80*2 is more than 90. Germany has about 80 million inhabitants.
• danbruc 7mo ago
  The big mistake was attacking a state in violation of international law.
  • rbanffy 7mo ago
    Any country that can veto a UN resolution is, effectively, immune to international law.
    • danbruc 7mo ago
      So is everyone with enough power, every law requires enforcement. But even without enforcement or with the ability to outright block laws, being in violation of international law still matters. It informs others whether you truly belief in a rule-based order or whether you only use it as a tool if it benefits you and they will adjust their behavior accordingly. Also if you want support from others, if you are in violation of international law, the others will think twice if they should support you.
• CyanLite2 7mo ago
  US can pull out and probably should. The impetus for the blockade on the Strait goes away when the US pulls out. Even the UAE said as much as which is why they are currently trying to pass a UN Security Council Resolution stating as much and get the RoW to show enough teeth to get Iran to back down.
• gcanyon 7mo ago
  I am not a military expert, but the US theory of war has for a long time started with and was based on airspace dominance/control, and drones/cheap missiles put a serious dent in achieving that. Maybe laser weapons put the balance back toward the side that has them?
  • ef3dfd 7mo ago
    " airspace dominance/control," Lmao re-writing the history books? That plan of attack can be attributable to the Nazis. "Maybe laser weapons put the balance back toward the side that has them?" Thats more fiction than reality.
    • gcanyon 7mo ago
      I didn’t say it was original with the U.S., just that it has been their strategy for some time. And the U.S. has been prepping/testing lasers on boats for some time. Combine rapid fire/quick kill with good radar and you have (airborne) drone defense.
• rbanffy 7mo ago
  > Countermeasures can take out some attacking missiles, but not all of them. Exactly. On asymmetrical warfare, one side needs to get lucky all the time while the other only needs to get lucky once. > Mass-produced drones today are a simple airframe, a lawnmower engine, and the smarts of a cell phone. Ukraine has people making them in basements. Presumably, so does Iran. Their cheap and simple nature allows them to easily swarm targets and saturate their defenses. You can defend from a dozen incoming drones, but a hundred is significantly more difficult. Also, consider the massive quadcopter shows in China as an example of how a well placed shipping container can swarm a target and make a devastating attack. Ukraine demonstrated one and disabled a significant part of the Russian bomber fleet. > Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. Cuba would be foolish not to do that at the first opportunity, not to attack the US, but to neutralize any offensive from the US. Without a navy, a land invasion, or an effective blockade, is impossible.
  • dinkumthinkum 7mo ago
    Cuba would be foolish not to “neutralize” the US? You think Cuba has the capability to destroy the US Navy? Where did you learn all this?
    • rbanffy 7mo ago
      Attacking a navy has proven easy and cheap. Right now they lack any significant military capability but that will not last forever.
      • dinkumthinkum 7mo ago
        Again, based on what? What reality are you living in because it is not the consensus one. You're just saying that. Also, you went from "neutralizing" to "attacking." Attacking anything is pretty easy. I really need a better form anti-Americanism, the one I keep seeing on HN is so weak and boring.
• jvanderbot 7mo ago
  This is a fairly well trod argument. It also requires a fairly long series of strawman arguments to come together. Yes, there are challenges, but ... The reality of Hormuz was well known decades ago - even in 2002 Millenium exercise a bunch of speedboats and motorcycles stopped the US Navy from opening hormuz. [1] Moskva was taken down by a well coordinated strike that distracted its one (1!) fire control radar. It was also alone. Those are important factors. [2] A blanket comparison of Russia's attempts to eliminate Ukraine's industry with US Navy's ability to eliminate Iran's is ... questionable. We've flown 1000s of uncontested sorties over Ukraine, and Russia has been relegated to knocking down apartment buildings with Iran's own drones. It is entirely possible that the US Navy is commanded by myopic idiots who fall for those tricks, but I doubt it. Finally, it's not entirely clear that the large population won't, itself, become at least partially an asset of the resistance. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 [2]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/04/14/ukraines-bayraktar-drones-helped-destroy-russian-flagship/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/04/14/ukrain...
  • dlisboa 7mo ago
    > A blanket comparison of Russia's attempts to eliminate Ukraine's industry with US Navy's ability to eliminate Iran's is ... questionable. We've flown 1000s of uncontested sorties over Ukraine, and Russia has been relegated to knocking down apartment buildings with Iran's own drones. Russia has literally taken over the industrial heart of Ukraine in the east and southeast regions. With boots on the ground, tanks, everything. They claim it as their land. And yet they can't stop Ukraine from building drones. That's far more than the US/Israel have done or are willing to do. It's extremely realistic that they do not have the capacity to destroy Iran's drone making capabilities, ever.
    • jvanderbot 7mo ago
      Think about it this way - if Russia had the US Navy's task force near Ukraine, and the level of air dominance that US has in Iran, do you think Russia would do anything differently? Would they, for example, be making 100s - 1000s of daily aerial strikes anywhere in Ukraine? Because US _does_ have that, and so it _does_ significantly change the calculus. Unless you think it doesn't. In which case, we just disagree.
• traceroute66 7mo ago
  > A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. I think you're missing the point. I am sure Israel did not underestimate the scale of Iran. That is why Netanyahu dedicated 40 years of his life to the famous "40 years 2-weeks away from a bomb" one-man stand-up comedy show when visiting the US or the UN. For 40 years Netanyahu waited for a stupid enough President to take a seat in the Oval Office. For 40 years, consecutive US presidents asked their advisors before going back to Netanyahu with a polite but firm "Thanks, but no thanks". Then along came the Donny. Advisors ? What advisors ? Cabinet of yes-men ? Yes please ! Netenyahu's birthday and christmas both came at once.
• mycall 7mo ago
  Sorry but if Cuba starting launching drones at Florida, especially Mar-a-Lago, Cuba will be carpet bombed. Americans would simply not put up with that. It would be sad days in history imho.
• wat10000 7mo ago
  Underestimation requires estimation. There was no thought put into the decision to start this war. These are people who have thoroughly bought into their own propaganda. Can the US win a war against Iran? The answer is “America, fuck yeah.” They think we’re omnipotent and literally favored by their god. They think the reason we’ve had military problems in the past is because lefty bedwetters insist on stupid rules like “no bombing schools.” You’ve put more thought into this operation in this comment than our top leadership has.
• asdff 7mo ago
  >Russia has been trying to do that to Ukraine for years now. To be fair this is basically a weakness of modern kid gloves warfare not really due to any asymmetric advantage. If the year were say 1941, Kiev and the rest of Ukraine would have been reduced to rubble and conquered years ago by now and not thanks to technology but the state of what is seen as politically acceptable. Really, Putin could do this today if he really wanted to waste a couple million ukrainians. There is no technological moat protecting kiev from destruction today. People claim if he did something like that then western nations would rally to arms and prevent that, but they said the same before he invaded ukraine in the manner they did, too. Maybe Putin doesn't even realize the bluff is a bluff, or maybe he does have a bit of a conscious unlike Stalin.
• AsItIs 7mo ago
  Some claim, Islamic fascist Republic massacred 90,000 of its own people. {Canadian politician Goldie Ghamari} Goldie Ghamari | گلسا قمری @gghamari: 'The audacity of spitting in the face of an entire nation that's lost over 90,000 people, murdered by the Islamic Regime for wanting @PahlaviReza to lead the country from an Islamic Dictatorship to a democracy. Shame on Toronto Star for calling HRH Reza Pahlavi an "opportunist".' X, Feb 16, 2026 [https://x.com/gghamari/status/2023550188300960091 https://x.com/gghamari/status/2023550188300960091] ---- {Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser} [Congressional Record Volume 172, Number 41 (Wednesday, March 4, 2026)] [House]. [Pages H2395-H2412]. From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]. Mr. MEUSER. Mr. Speaker.. Because of this regime's reign of terror, their own civilians rose up and protested, Mr. Speaker. Over the last 2 months, there are reports that as many as 90,000 Iranian civilians were murdered. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-03-04/html/CREC-2026-03-04-pt1-PgH2395.htm https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-03-04/html/CRE... ---- {Christian activist Attieh Fard} A cry for freedom from Iran | Opinion By Attieh Fard. 4 March 2026. Iranian Christian, Attieh Fard shares the anguish and hope surrounding Iran’s uprising, calling for urgent action and solidarity with those fighting for freedom. Mar 4, 2026 — ... murdered. The numbers are likely higher, with some reports suggesting that as many as 90,000 were killed, within just two days. Women were shot in their eyes and bellies. There were also reports of teenage girls being detained in unknown locations and some subjected to rape. https://www.womanalive.co.uk/opinion/a-cry-for-freedom-from-iran/21106.article https://www.womanalive.co.uk/opinion/a-cry-for-freedom-from-... ---- {Former Kurdish-Iranisn tortured prisoner, rapper Saman Yasin} Samanyasin @isamanyasin: #IranMassacre. According to reports and eyewitness accounts, over 90,000 innocent people have been killed in Iran simply for seeking freedom. Even one execution destroys not just a life, but an entire family. Every death leaves wounds that never heal. @LeoTerrellDOJ Feb 22, 2026 https://x.com/isamanyasin/status/2025625711822672217 https://x.com/isamanyasin/status/2025625711822672217