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Tesla market share in US drops to lowest since 2017
- bluedevilzn 1y agoThe stock on the other hand…
- asdff 1y agoPE of 200 and the 6 month chart looks like a cardiogram. It is a very profitable plaything for the pump and dumpers. Elon included.
- assimpleaspossi 1y agoYes. A lot of people, and obviously some "news" reporters, need to learn the difference between market share and stock price. And that as a market grows one company cannot maintain the same market share as competitors join in over time.
- AsmaraHolding 1y ago> as a market grows one company cannot maintain the same market share as competitors join in over time. Why not? Look at Apple's smartphone market share in the US. It's been fairly constant at 60% for the last 15 years.
- techjamie 1y agoI would say the smartphone market would be more stable in terms of market share by its nature. The only way that it would shift significantly is if there were a mass exodus of users from one platform to the other. But the vast majority of people are perfectly happy staying with whatever they have. Likewise, many new smartphone users who aren't locked into a platform yet get locked into whatever platform people around them are using. In the vehicle market, there's a lot more competition space than just two or three brands. And just because someone is around, say, Ford drivers. It doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to go out and buy a Ford for themselves. Rather, they're going to buy whatever they find appealing.
- assimpleaspossi 1y agoTaken to the extreme for example, say Apple had 100% of the market. If a competitor entered the market and gained 1% share,then Apple's market share will have decreased. In Tesla's case, a number of competitors have entered the market. It would be impossible to maintain whatever market share they had no matter how good the product is or how well their stock price is doing.
- mandevil 1y ago"Tesla is on track toward a second year of sales decline." - from the article Consecutive years of sales declines is a situation where it does not matter if the market is growing or shrinking, it's bad for a company. The only way to grow if absolute sales go down is to raise margins on each individual unit. "But with weakening sales and a host of competitors, Tesla has had to cut prices in recent years, squeezing its margins and worrying investors." Hmmmm, I guess maybe the author of the article understands this better than you think?
- nabla9 1y agoLess than 10% of Tesla's value is in existing business. Tesla's revenue hasn't grown in three years 1. Car company (true) 2. energy company (eh) 3. robotaxi (next year since 2018) 4. robots ... Google, Amazon Robotics/Kiva, Hyundai/Boston Dynamics, even Nvidia are ahead of Tesla in AI+robotics.
- adrr 1y agoTesla’s product is the stock.
- gonzobonzo 1y ago> Google, Amazon Robotics/Kiva, Hyundai/Boston Dynamics, even Nvidia are ahead of Tesla in AI+robotics. Optimus seems to be much closer to actually being released as a product than Atlas. After over a decade, Boston Dynamics still hasn't shown anyone a live, unscripted demo of Atlas as far as I can tell (Tesla was showing those with multiple Optimus robots a year ago). And they don't appear to have any plans for actually selling it as a product anytime soon. I'm skeptical of the humanoid robot market in general, but at the moment Tesla and Unitree appear to be the two companies ate the forefront of it.
- FireBeyond 1y agoWhat? One of Tesla's more recent demos of Optimus literally had a handler with a remote control "driving" it.
- gonzobonzo 1y agoThis is a non-sequitur. The Optimus demonstrations so far have been partially controlled (though the degree to which they were appears to be overstated). This doesn't change the fact that they've done public demonstrations with the robots while Boston Dynamics hasn't.
- FinnKuhn 1y agoThe Tesla stock evaluation has little to do with what Tesla is delivering today and a lot more with what investors imagine they will be able to do in the future. Based on their history I'm pretty optimistic that those expectations will not be met, but Tesla somehow still rises in value.
- nutjob2 1y agoIt's the original meme stock.
- utyop22 1y agoBecause Elon pulls off certain manoeuvres that feeds right into his "just trust me bro" supporters.
- Hnrobert42 1y agoEvery time I think about shorting Tesla stock, I remember the adage: The market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.
- jaimex2 1y agoEvery time I see people betting against Musk, I remember the adage: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results
- andsoitis 1y agoCompany value is dependent on expected future profit/revenue/etc. not market share per se. If the market grows in size and you’re able to grow revenue and profit, reduced market share in and of itself doesn’t matter. While the U.S. market share has declined, Tesla's overall annual revenue has continued to grow from $11.75 billion in 2017 to over $97 billion in 2024, though it saw a slight decline in revenue for the 12 months ending June 30, 2025. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/revenue
- Aurornis 1y ago> If the market grows in size and you’re able to grow revenue and profit, reduced market share in and of itself doesn’t matter. The Tesla story and its high valuation were based on the idea that Tesla had won the car market, others couldn’t catch up, and Tesla was going to be doing laps around the competition with all of their additional business lines that grew out of their class-leading EV business. If their EV business is losing market share, that really is a problem for the narrative. They could be fine as an EV company, but they’ve sold themselves as something far more. > Tesla's overall annual revenue has continued to grow from $11.75 billion in 2017 2017 was forever ago in technology and economic terms. The most important problem right now is that their revenue isn’t growing while everyone else is getting better at EVs.
- DoesntMatter22 1y agoMost of the issue is that their competitors are selling at a big loss. Ford admitted so recently and are starting to make fewer cars. Rivian and lucid are also hemmoraging money. Without the tax credit these companies may cease to exist or stop making evs in the case of Ford. It's likely they will have fewer competitors soon
- andsoitis 1y ago> If their EV business is losing market share, that really is a problem for the narrative. They could be fine as an EV company, but they’ve sold themselves as something far more. Long-term growth is pinned on success in AI, robotics, robotaxis, and autonomous services.
- leetharris 1y agoThe whole EV market is growing and everyone is racing to buy one before incentives run out. The article is framed as a hit piece and even has political statements in it. But here is an exact quote from the article: "Sales of new EVs jumped more than 24% month over month in July to 128,268, according to the Cox data, driven by the looming end of a $7,500 tax credit for EVs and attractive deals. Tesla saw sales rise 7% to 53,816, even as its market share fell."
- testbjjl 1y agoWonder if the end of the subsidies against a 7% increase is sales, potentially due to end of subsidies is a canary?
- to11mtm 1y agoYou mean like the thing where Telsa magically sold a not-really-logical number of vehicles in Canada when subsidies were running out there?
- dghlsakjg 1y agoIf you follow up on the story, Tesla was cleared of all wrong doing after an investigation. Tesla did sell that number of vehicles, they just were very behind on filing for the incentives, but still within the program guidelines. Once the government announced that the incentives were running low, they filed all of their backlog at once. I love to hate on Elon as much as the next person, but everything was above board. https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/canada-clears-tesla-in-izev-rebate-investigation-43m-payment-unfrozen/ https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/canada-clears-tesla-in-izev...
- FireBeyond 1y agoI think there's something else going on there, although yes, that was the statement. > Tesla’s head of sales for Canada, emphasized in a March 28 letter that the filings followed program guidelines, which allowed post-delivery submissions despite recommendations for pre-delivery assessments. but this alludes to something more: > Despite the clearance, Tesla will still be excluded from future iZEV programs Huh. Why, I wonder?
- cosmic_cheese 1y agoPolitical issues aside, Tesla has a variety problem. If we converge the split between midrange and premium, their lineup consists of a midsize sedan, a midsize SUV, and a niche truck. Early on this was in their favor, but with more automakers entering the fray with serious attempts to compete, they’re going to have to add at least a couple more models to reman competitive: something in the vein of a Chevy Bolt on one end and an SUV that’s the next step up in size from the Y/X on the other. A more conventional truck that more directly competes with the F-150 also couldn’t hurt.
- rcdemski 1y agoAgain, politics aside, I just find the lineup boring. Every model outside the Cybertruck looks like a ten year old car. Even the refresh of the model Y is still reskinning a design language started with the Model S, but with any interesting soul stripped out to reduce cost. The nerd in me loves the technology, particularly behind the scenes features of the Cybertruck like 48v architecture. In the end I want to drive something that feels like it has a soul and substance. Teslas lineup right now is not that.
- rayiner 1y agoMy wife thinks they all look like jellybeans. Tesla makes them like that to maximize efficiency, and they’re still #1 on that metric, but people don’t care about that.
- lotsofpulp 1y agoToyota has done quite well by maximizing efficiency.
- nemomarx 1y agoI think the target audience for a Toyota or Honda (boring but reliable car) isn't very interested in the kind of quality control Tesla has. They're supposed to make up for that in other features and the unique style of the truck is part of that, in theory.
- qwertytyyuu 1y agoMan I should have shorted Tesla stock, but when these bubble pop is hard to predict
- barney54 1y agoI wanted to short the stock 8 years ago and boy was I wrong!
- more_corn 1y agoThe market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
- thekid314 1y agoTSLQ
- mminer237 1y agoNote that you would have lost 91% of your money over the last year with this. Gambling on the precise timing of a stock crash is really hard to make profitable. Plus buying an inverse ETF has higher fees than actually shorting it and you can't make a pair trade or earn interest on the money.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- TheAlchemist 1y agoVery very risky (I'm still doing it though). Some very skilled short sellers lost a ton of money on Tesla - for example Jim Chanos - a guy who predicted the fall of Enron and shorted quite a lot of stocks that turned out trash - Beyond Meat, Wirecard, Hertz. But he closed his fund late 2023, in big part because of his short position on Tesla. He's still a very vocal advocate of Teslaq. Feel really bad for the guy - Tesla will end up crashing, but it will take way way longer that anybody could anticipated.
- more_corn 1y ago[flagged]
- lgleason 1y agoBoring lineup, Lack of recent innovation, poor repairability and a CEO who has alienated people on both sides of the political isle. The 1 trillion dollar package the board is offering Musk is a joke. They need to find a new CEO.
- randycupertino 1y agoI low key have a conspiracy theory that the "1 trillion dollar pay package" is just Tesla PR fluff - smoke and mirrors to steal attention away from the poorly performing cybertruck sales and falling stock. If they spin news with dramatic flair highlighting Musk’s bonkers pay package it's a distraction from Tesla’s more immediate and tangible troubles, political alienation of their buyers and ongoing regulatory and manufacturing operational crises.
- sethops1 1y agoI think it's a desperate attempt by the board to get Musk to focus on Tesla again. Tesla has a PE ratio of around 230 right now. If that comes back down to the reality of a declining-sales mid-sized car company, it's going to be an absolute blood bath.
- otterley 1y agoA pay package of that magnitude is a material business fact. If Tesla is lying about this, that would likely constitute securities fraud and risks imprisonment for the people involved in making it.
- jjulius 1y agoThe company that had to pay out $20 million (in addition to Musk paying another $20 million) to settle with the SEC after being accused of securities fraud in 2018, and whose owner has just been accused of another instance of securities fraud by the SEC this year may, in fact, be engaging in securities fraud here? Well, color me just absolutely shocked.
- myvoiceismypass 1y ago
- tonymet 1y ago“Tesla sales rose 7% even as market share fell”. So they’re still selling more cars, but there’s hotter EV competition. I thought that was the goal.
- scotty79 1y agoI thought the goal was to give Musk 50bln before bankrupting the company.
- mandevil 1y agoIt's complicated. Tesla sales rose 7% in July, month-over-month, but the expiration of subsidies hangs over the whole thing. This factor caused total EV sales in the US to jump 24%, month-over-month, as a whole bunch of sales got pulled from future quarters to the present. But because of the expiration of subsidies, those sales that got pulled ahead into July will probably not be there in September or October. This is why outside analysts expect that for 2025 as a whole, Tesla car sales numbers will decline versus 2024 as a whole. 2024 for Tesla as a whole, incidentally, was a 1.1% sales decrease over 2023. Two consecutive years of sales decline is a big warning sign, especially for a company that is considered a growth stock.
- tonymet 1y agoI agree , but I still feel picking and choosing indicators is misleading. A story includes many observations . You did a better job
- JumpinJack_Cash 1y ago> > I thought that was the goal. It was the goal to say it out loud to the press and on twitter to gain sympathy and stand tall on the moral high ground.
- tonymet 1y agoNo i mean the goal that private companies and public policy makers are aligned to expand EV market share. Billions (almost trillions) are being blown to make that happen.
- bilsbie 1y agoBattery prices have dropped so much over the past ten years. So I don’t understand why they can’t make a cheaper vehicle. At some point EVs should be way cheaper than ICE vehicles.
- loloquwowndueo 1y agoPeople are tripping over each other to pay $60k for suvs and trucks. There’s no incentive for smaller or cheaper cars as long as people are happy paying current premium prices.
- FireBeyond 1y agoThese days often on ridiculous 108 month notes. Oof. Paying $95,000 for a $70,000 truck that depreciates to $50,000 the moment you drive it off the lot and worth maybe $10K at loan maturity?
- tayo42 1y agoFord maverick has waitlists. Small and around 30k
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- kube-system 1y agoWhich is 50% more expensive than what Ford initially promised it to be in 2022, but they stopped taking orders because they couldn't (or didn't want to) actually deliver on their promises
- petee 1y agoMusk has said he didn't see a market or need for an affordable car, so any reduction in battery cost is just profit for them
- ncr100 1y ago
- yalogin 1y agoThis is expected. Tesla enjoyed a more than a decade long position as the leader. Even now it’s a strong pick because of the extensive charging network they built. No other company comes close, and this charging network will reap recurring revenue for them. However the cars themselves are really shitty. I mean really bad for quality and do not offer any aesthetic value either, they appear very plain and generic at this point. I can see why people are picking other cars. Of course the whole nazi turn of their founder doesn’t help.
- malfist 1y agoNACS is on all the new cars, and most older cars have shipped out adapters if it was made in the past year or two. The network no longer matters.
- toast0 1y ago> Even now it’s a strong pick because of the extensive charging network they built. No other company comes close, and this charging network will reap recurring revenue for them. Didn't they fire the team behind the charging network a while ago? How has it been since then?
- FireBeyond 1y agoMy brother-in-law, who has worked for both Tesla and Rivian and owned a 3, a Y, an R1T, is now on his second CT, and is just as unhappy with the second as he was with the first. Creaks, rattles, things feeling flimsy or fragile.
- rsynnott 1y ago> is now on his second CT, and is just as unhappy with the second as he was with the first. ... Why on earth would one keep buying them?
- FireBeyond 1y agoGood question. He's a Tesla true believer, though he's also soured on Musk a bit.
- deemeng 1y agoCars tend to be more akin to fashion than consumer electronics. People care about how it looks, interior (eg cup holders) or what brand it is. Tesla is behind here as the traditional car companies have more experience in this. Additionally, Tesla has not materially lowered their prices or spent a lot on marketing.
- guicen 1y agoTechnically, I respect what Tesla has achieved, especially in terms of progress with autonomous driving. But honestly, every time I come across another report of a safety incident, it makes me hesitate. Even if it's a statistical issue, when it happens to you, it's 100%.
- jmward01 1y agoThere is a lot of discussion of the brand being hurt, but I will say that personally I just don't want a new car period and Tesla specifically in large part because of privacy concerns. My understanding it that Tesla is one of the worst offenders in a group of massively offensive (to privacy) options. Are there actually privacy preserving options left in the market at all and in the EV market specifically? If Tesla promised, and delivered, privacy (actually didn't track) it would go a long way to rehabilitating them as a brand in my eyes. It probably wouldn't be enough, but I would at least look at them again.
- LeoPanthera 1y agoThe HN crowd does not reflect the majority of Americans, who simply do not care about "privacy", and are far more interested in whether their car has CarPlay or Android Auto - which Teslas don't.
- petrocrat 1y agoThe Slate truck might be the only one to have less digital tracking just due to how they are skipping so many electronic bells and whistles to keep costs in the $20k range.
- sidcool 1y agoAs usual, articles against Tesla miss the picture. Of course their share would drop as other auto makers ramp up EV efforts. People here calling Tesla cars boring and bad are missing the point.
- 1vuio0pswjnm7 1y agoText-only, no Datadome Javascript: https://assets.msn.com/content/view/v2/Detail/en-in/AA1M6lm4/ https://assets.msn.com/content/view/v2/Detail/en-in/AA1M6lm4...
- diebeforei485 1y agoThe article is referring to EV market share, which is a useless metric. The whole point of Tesla opening their patents and their chargers was to encourage more companies to make EV's, which would necessarily imply a drop in Tesla's EV market share. The metric that I would like to see is Tesla's market share of the auto market in general (regardless of fuel type). I like the new Model 3 and Model Y. It is unfortunate that they didn't do a facelift for the Model S and X. I know they've updated the motors and batteries and interior, but unless you look closely the Model X looks pretty much the same as it did in 2016.
- akmarinov 1y agoSo if you don’t look at the Cybertruck, which basically can’t be sold outside North America, they haven’t had a new vehicle in 5 years. If you look at the existing vehicles: - they no longer sell Model S and X in Europe and right hand markets - Model S has had one external visual change since it was introduced, Model X has never had one - the refreshed Model 3 and Y don’t really have any battery or charging improvements, last time they updated those was 8 years ago - no V2L like others - no increased battery capacity - no 800V on anything outside CT - Tesla’s charging curves compared to others are laughable - no increased creature comforts, eg massaging seats, screens for passenger, air suspension, automated frunk, 360 view, etc - no FSD worldwide - Autopilot hasn’t seen an update in years - park assist is horrible compared to USS The market has really caught up and in a lot of places outpaced Tesla - Rivian, Audi, Polestar, Volvo, Hyundai, KIA have better products
- jaimex2 1y agoSounds like they are all in on Robotaxi huh ;)
- akmarinov 1y agoDo you mean Robotaxi or Cybercab? Robotaxi is just Model Ys that have a FSD version that they let on to some cities. It’s again something that’ll never make it outside the US, even though the market there is big enough for it to be sustainable. Cybercab is never coming out. It doesn’t make sense for it to exist and be sold to people. 200 mile range 2 seater? It mostly makes sense as a literal cab and if it’s going to be profitable for whoever buys it and lets it be a Robotaxi, there’s no point for Tesla to sell it, as they can just be the ones that take in that profit on every vehicle.
- plqbfbv 1y agoI have to agree with most of the points here (I own a Tesla Model 3). The only point where in my view they're still far ahead is infotainment: seamless experience, regular upgrades, very good security, new features every now and then. Hardware-wise the competitors caught up. I'll add: they don't have a city/compact car (Euro A/B/C segment), their "smallest" offer starts at the D-segment Model 3, which is a big car by EU standards. I know that for US standards these look small, but for the rest of the world they represent huge chunk of cars. People don't need a Model 3 for daily driving, they need the equivalent of a Volkswagen Golf, with ~400km real range. If instead of the CT they had released an 800V, V2L+V2G, 48V B/C-segment car, they'd have grabbed most of the market. The CT was a very expensive (and stupid in some places - exterior in non-painted steel) experiment in new tech, architecture and steer by wire that had 0 follow up so far.
- floppiplopp 1y agoIs it because the creepy breeding kink, drug addict CEO playing a neo nazi edgelord who supports far-right extremist parties all over the world? Or is it the noncompetitive products that were oversold for decades? FSD scam? Humanoid robot scam? Cyberanything fail?
- unwind 1y agoWay over here in tiny little Sweden, I've multiple times seen Teslas with custom stickers saying "I got this before Elon went crazy" or something similar on the trunk. The situation might be different here though since there has been a rather long-running and high-profile conflict between Tesla and the unions, on top of all the other madness.
- jaimex2 1y agoUgh, it's just a FUD article. I was all set to watch the stock crash and buy as much as possible but this wont move it.
- no_cable_news 1y ago[flagged]
- Cartoxy 1y agoCybertruck was such a stupid investment from Tesla. seams like everybody kowtowed, somebody should have told him its a dumb idea.
- nswest23 1y agopretty sure they pivoted to robots anyhow.