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Private sector lost 33k jobs, badly missing expectations of 100k increase
- toomuchtodo 1y agohttps://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/docs/html/c42ca8a8-178f-4042-85dd-00809178e780.html https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/docs/html/c42ca8a8-178f-40... | https://archive.today/BhC0n https://archive.today/BhC0n
- tomrod 1y agoWhat in the bad-URL-looks-like-phishing-but-appears-legit heck is this?
- toomuchtodo 1y agoContent management system guid I presume, versus a title slug that can drift during editing and publishing. Archive.today link added for the cautious.
- genter 1y agoYeah, but WTF is bluematrix.com? If I see a bank name as a subdomain of a domain I don't recognize, alarm bells go off.
- toomuchtodo 1y agoResearch portal SaaS for financial services firms. Missed opportunity to use a `research.` subdomain CNAME.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- hliyan 1y agoImportant: "[payroll processing firm] ADP's report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report"
- adrr 1y agoGovernment job reports this year have been revised down up to 35%. > The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 65,000, from +185,000 to +120,000, and the change for April was revised down by 30,000, from +177,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 95,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
- dmix 1y agoRevised down from previously reported projections. But the numbers are pretty neutral. > Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.9 percent), teenagers (13.4 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
- llm_nerd 1y agoRecent government payroll data has been hugely suspect. On the big release day the numbers are rosy and get reported to much hoopla and "told you" celebration, but then are subsequently revised downwards to little fanfare or notice. And for those who wonder "why revise downward if it's a lie?", because the numbers eventually are going to collide with reality so they need to be right sized after the fact.
- k4shm0n3y 1y agoThis isn't a recent phenomena
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- psunavy03 1y agoWe really need better ways of measuring economic health. I could lose my six-figure job, turn around, and get hired on as a server at Applebee's for minimum wage, and the "unemployment" rate would stay the same. Not to mention that it doesn't include those not actively looking for work. Either way, "full employment" doesn't mean much unless you take into account whether people are actually able to live a stable lifestyle or are burning the candle at both ends just to put food on the table. One of these enables folks to buy nonessentials and fund all those sectors of the economy, the other doesn't.
- ivape 1y agoWhy do we care so much if jobs are created or not created? The market is the market, either we need more jobs or we don't. If there are not enough jobs, then what are we going to do? Create more? We're just dressing up socialism in capitalism's clothes. If you want to seriously do capitalism, then there is absolutely no reason to measure employment. If it's zero then it's correct, if it's 100% then it's correct, the number is always correct. The problem isn't employment. It's food and shelter. Why do we care so much if people have jobs? Because in America you will die homeless and starve without one. The core issue is much further down Maslow's hierarchy. The food and housing are too expensive so much so that we are now flabbergasted by the reality of the end game of this system, and we're trying to use euphemistic metrics to broom the larger issue (food and a roof) under the bed. The situation is so bad that a large percentage of Americans are absolutely fine dragging anything that resembles economic competition (immigrants) by their fucking ears off the street, mom dad and child, and dumping them in some random country. The larger US population is unable to cede even an ounce of empathy because their wallets are held hostage by a loan-based society/growth-oriented pricing (my house MUST be worth 40% more since I bought it - really? I see.). We're at an inflection point. This could be a false analogy, but I'll throw it out there. Imagine a startup that cannot sell their product because it simply sucks. Now imagine not coming to terms with that and doing relentless A/B testing and pointing at the data from that. You won't solve shit with that data, go back to the drawing board. Infinite growth and infinite "go work more and harder" doesn't sound like the path forward for America. This is very much a "work smarter" situation, because you have to be stupid to keep buying that paradigm. The deal we made with capitalism had nothing to do with annihilating our core conscious of feeding and housing everyone. Capitalism was never supposed to eradicate that human virtue and certainly not add a layer of "must have money and must have job" to stay dry/warm and not hungry, and at the very least not be in constant financial anxiety (which is the day-to-day psychological torment the average American faces). Another way to interpret employment numbers is to simply meditatively say out loud "There's 70k people this month that are on the rails because this society is that cut-throat about money for literally everything, down to the bagel, down to the roof". ---- Anyway, the new bill congress just passed targeted SNAP, so we definitely cut off more people from affordable food. This entire country is going to need something like SNAP for 300+ million Americans in about 10 years, so we'll all get to watch the poetry of this one.
- phplovesong 1y ago[flagged]
- throwawayoldie 1y ago[flagged]
- actionfromafar 1y agoYou just have to wait until China pays the tariffs.
- throitallaway 1y agoRight after Mexico builds the wall.
- actionfromafar 1y agoExactly! :-D In two weeks.
- jimbokun 1y ago> But the contraction was capped by payroll expansions in goods-producing roles across industries such as manufacturing and mining. All together, goods-producing positions grew by 32,000 in the month, while payrolls for service roles overall fell by 66,000. Is this tariffs working as intended?
- danans 1y agoIf your metric is "more/better jobs", then yes tariffs are a failure. But in a roundabout sense ... yes they are working. At least if the goal is to discipline and squeeze labor, and return leverage to employers. Part of the goal of the tariffs (and other non-tariff related policies) seems to be to reset leverage at all layers of the labor markets, pushing higher skilled and paid workers into lower skilled and paid manufacturing jobs by increasing the labor availability pool (primarily via workers being unable to get jobs at their previous skill/salary level). For example, imagine a former software engineer taking a lower paid job as an IT admin at a mining company. Similarly, cutting Medicaid benefits and adding work requirements could trigger increased availability of the lowest skilled labor, thereby reducing the wages that people doing that labor can demand. That is all a boost for employers seeking lower cost but high skilled labor, but a knock down for all the workers.
- doctorpangloss 1y ago[flagged]
- elcritch 1y agoIf more goods are made locally then it seems rather that unions would have more leverage. They’re not competing with underpaid foreigners in countries with even less unions. The bigger loss for all employees is the shareholders primary fallacy giving executives excuses to pay workers less. Since there’s no competition for many consumer goods then there’s no pressure to keep prices low and companies just up their profit margin. The loss in IT / software jobs are again mostly profiteering using AI as an excuse.
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- varelse 1y ago[dead]
- analyte123 1y agoThe ADP payroll report is noise. It is based on the payroll data from ADP only. The assumption of this report is that companies that use ADP to process their payroll are completely representative of the entire economy and that there is no regional, sector, or company stage bias to their customers. A firm with ADP laying employees off and 3 new firms with the same number of employees being founded and using a different payroll provider would be reported as a "loss" here. Maybe the private sector did lose jobs, but I wouldn't use this report to find out.
- chc4 1y agoADP say that they handle payroll for one in six of all companies in America. That is both a large sample size, and probably broadly representative of the economy. There will of course be some business segments that are over or underrepresented but that is different than disregarding the entire report as noise.
- eastbound 1y agoADP is predominant in large companies and has little hold in startups. It skews the stats.
- hx8 1y agoADP data does have a bias, but it is so much data it provides a valuable signal. The importance of understanding the source of your data and how it represents the largest population is something every scientist has been drilled on.
- weaksauce 1y agotwo small companies i used to work for used adp.
- danaris 1y ago...You know that "startup" is not synonymous with "small company", right? What's the situation in the vast swath of the economy that's made up of small non-startup companies?
- realo 1y agoFor completeness, I would suppose those are USA jobs... Not Canadian or EU or South America or SouthEast Asia etc etc jobs. Is it too early to link that bad economic performance with the catastrophic management style of their current administration?
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- guywithahat 1y agoThey're US numbers, and they're from a private HR firm, not government numbers. It doesn't mean they're not meaningful, but they are a biased sample towards large companies using the HR software in US employment
- quantum_state 1y agoWhen the government is robbing all consumers with tariffs, more bad news will come …
- giantg2 1y agoI'm about to lose my job too. The job market looks terrible.
- jjtheblunt 1y agoDon't lose hope; I left grad school right before the first dotcom failures 25ish years ago. I think you'll find that when some novel technology erupts onto the scene, the job market goes through a shift of semi incoherence, that hits folks like us. but, it's temporary and can introduce a way more enthralling era of jobs.
- giantg2 1y agoI think between agism and ableism probably won't get another developer job.
- jjtheblunt 1y agoyeah you will; just think new learning adventure!
- giantg2 1y agoLearning isn't a problem. I can quickly learn many things including many certifications with <10 hours of study. None of that matters when it comes to getting a job.
- zzgo 1y agoI've been unemployed for months. In the last couple of weeks, I've been rejected for jobs as a pool cleaner, shelf stocker, and a state job requiring me to check multiple email accounts and watch security cameras. I've also recently been rejected as an overnight courier and software tester. Whatever you imagine the job market to be like, I assure you it's worse.
- octo888 1y ago
- underlipton 1y agoThe fun part is when it's revised down 60,000 in two months.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- programmertote 1y agoJust one data point to add -- the small firm (~150 ppl) I'm currently working at recently laid off 25 people. The reasoning was there are dark clouds in the horizon in the housing market (the company is related to real estate btw).
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- darqis 1y ago[flagged]
- dyauspitr 1y agoThis administration will drag this country into the gutter.
- JumpCrisscross 1y agoThe actual report: https://adp-ri-nrip-static.adp.com/artifacts/us_ner/20250702/ADP_NATIONAL_EMPLOYMENT_REPORT_Press_Release_2025_06%20FINAL.pdf https://adp-ri-nrip-static.adp.com/artifacts/us_ner/20250702... Goods-producing companies were net hirers (+32,000). Services lost 66,000 jobs, with losses concentrated in professional/business services (-56,000) and education/health services (-52,000). Regionally, losses were concentrated in the West North Central Midwest (-28,000), South Atlantic (-21,000) and Mountain states (-20,000). (Map with old data [2].) Firms with 1 to 50 employees and 250 to 499 employees laid people off while smaller mid-size and large companies were net hirers. “Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed for June at 4.4 percent compared to 4.5 percent in May. Pay growth for job-changers was 6.8 percent in June, down slightly from 7.0 percent last month.” (Pay growth was highest in finance, +5.2%, and lowest in information services, +4.1%.) [2] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtCw0itWYAQSzri.png https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtCw0itWYAQSzri.png
- bix6 1y agoSo rate cut incoming? :p
- issafram 1y agoI used to have multiple recruiters reach out to me daily on LinkedIn regarding software engineering positions. And this was for multiple years. That hasn't been the case for the last 3 or 4 months. None of this surprises me and it shouldn't for others.
- zdragnar 1y agoOdd, it's gotten better for me over the last 3-4 months. The year or two prior to roughly March 2025 were very quiet, though, maybe 1 a month at most.
- dmix 1y agoHave you used your linkedin profile? If you're looking for a job or are active you're going to get more attention. Your name will also start being added to lead databases when you apply for jobs and those will kick around for a couple years until it's marked as uninteresting.
- bgnn 1y agoIt's crazy hot now in semiconductors. Anyone with couple of years experience is approached by recruiters daily.
- mixmastamyk 1y agoIs experience in electronics enough to work in that?
- bgnn 1y agoYes and no. It's hard to enter chip design directly. But eventually all chips are used in a PCB and there's a lot going on on that interface. It's called application engineering or systems engineering in the field and that is also hot.
- mixmastamyk 1y agoSo you’re talking about chip design primarily.
- newcommiedeal 1y ago[flagged]
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- sydbarrett74 1y agoThe media should be reporting U6 and labour force participation rate, not U3.
- tomfucksdan 1y ago[dead]
- ipogrjegiorejkf 1y agoADP is usually off by a good amount. Wondering why the jobs report posted today isn't trending but this story still is? https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/stock-market-today-live-upda...
- the_real_cher 1y agothis confusing because it was posted that jobs were gained? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/business/what-to-know-about-the-jobs-report.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/business/what-to-know-abo...
- atraac 1y agoI've applied casually to around 30 listings(I'm EU based) throughout last 2-3 months, all of which I was almost a perfect candidate for(9 years total exp). I received 2 automatic 'no's and 1 phone call + assignment for which I'm still waiting for a response. Everything else straight up ghosted me, not even confirmation emails of received resumes. Some of those companies even re-newed their listings afterwards. I feel like 80% of job listings are just straight up fake to keep VC's believing.
- more_corn 1y agoAt least the public sector is strong.