21 ms·
The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
- petereroshdy 1y ago[flagged]
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- quuxplusone 1y agoThe title is kind of the opposite of clickbait — but the actual article is pretty neat. Reminds me of Matt Levine.
- k310 1y ago[flagged]
- jordanb 1y ago[flagged]
- codr7 1y agoIt's not about the money but the ego. The two are very difficult to separate though, I've met very few who could handle a lot of money without becoming corrupted.
- phkahler 1y agoThis. There are a lot of biblical teaching about money and how to handle it, and to multiply it. Unfortunately people tend to make that an end unto itself and that was never the point.
- thinkingtoilet 1y ago[flagged]
- fhdjskdndbdjd 1y ago[dead]
- recursivedoubts 1y agoreligion (that is, an objective morality) has always been the only thing the masses have when confronted with the great pagan principle: "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must"
- HexDecOctBin 1y agoSo pagans don't have a religion or morality? That is interesting to hear, as a Hindu. The more things change, the more they remain the same!
- recursivedoubts 1y agoI don't know anything about hinduism, but I assume there is a base morality that the strong may not take advantage of the weak, in contrast with the athenian dictum I quoted.
- HexDecOctBin 1y agoAnd Hinduism is a so-called pagan religion. Thus, there was no need to pretend that only Abrahamic faiths have a sense of morality.
- recursivedoubts 1y agoDid I say anything about abrahamic religions?
- 1y ago
- pixl97 1y agoHence the Gospel of Supply Side Jesus, remade in the image of America. https://imgur.com/gallery/gospel-of-supply-side-jesus-bCqRp https://imgur.com/gallery/gospel-of-supply-side-jesus-bCqRp
- e40 1y agoBrilliant!!
- Boogie_Man 1y agoIt is important to contextualize this statement. It appears in three gospels, but in each it is in response to a rich man asking what he must do to inherit eternal life. Each instance of the story is told with slightly different emphasis (or they could be similar stories - i.e. this was his standard "line" for rich people), but Luke's account includes 18:27 He replied, "What is impossible for mere humans is possible for God" NET This does not mean it's okay to hoard wealth at the expense of others, of course. I think that Saint Basil the Great's sermon to the rich[1] is instructive for a historical and reasonable Christian instruction on the rich. Let me add an excerpt I really appreciate: But how do you make use of money? By dressing in expensive clothing? Won’t two yards of tunic suffice you, and the covering of one coat satisfy all your need of clothes? But is it for food’s sake that you have such a demand for wealth? One bread-loaf is enough to fill a belly. Why are you sad, then? What have you been deprived of? The status that comes from wealth? But if you would stop seeking earthly status, you should then find the true, resplendent kind that would conduct you into the kingdom of heaven. And one more because I can't help myself: Since, then, the wealth still overflows, it gets buried underground, stashed away in secret places.... A strange madness, that, when gold lies hidden with other metals, one ransacks the earth; but after it has seen the light of day, it disappears again beneath the ground. (The whole thing is worth a read, Basil just went hard non stop) 1. https://stjohngoc.org/st-basil-the-greats-sermon-to-the-rich/ https://stjohngoc.org/st-basil-the-greats-sermon-to-the-rich...
- kubb 1y agoYou just need to employ the right strategy to deal with it. Possible options include: 1. Claim that "camel" or "needle" are a mistranslation or symbolic. 2. Separate financial life from your spiritual beliefs to avoid inner conflict. 3. View wealth as a sign of God’s blessing or something used to do good, making it feel morally acceptable. 4. Emphasize other passages that support generosity or success. In general, it's easy to overcome cognitive dissonance in religion. You just accept additional beliefs that soften it.
- lapetitejort 1y agoIn the flavor of religion in which I grew up, it's easier to just quickly pray for forgiveness than to bother justifying anything. The most vile genocidal maniac could pray for thirty seconds right before death and get into heaven. Why bother following rules when someone already served the punishment?
- zahlman 1y ago5. Interpret that the passage, especially in the context of the subsequent verses, is about the need for God to get into heaven. That is; it's claiming that wealth cannot empower people to find their own route in, absent spirituality.
- recursivedoubts 1y agoThat is not true: with God all things are possible.
- kelseyfrog 1y agoCould God make a man so rich that even he wouldn't let him into heaven?
- victorbjorklund 1y agoWouldnt or couldnt?
- recursivedoubts 1y ago"I don’t know. When my bird was looking at my computer monitor I thought, ‘That bird has no idea what he’s looking at.’ And yet what does the bird do? Does he panic? No, he can’t really panic, he just does the best he can. Is he able to live in a world where he’s so ignorant? Well, he doesn’t really have a choice. The bird is okay even though he doesn’t understand the world. You’re that bird looking at the monitor, and you’re thinking to yourself, ‘I can figure this out.’ Maybe you have some bird ideas. Maybe that’s the best you can do.”
- lurk2 1y agoNo. Similarly, God cannot make a married bachelor, because this is nonsensical. The conversation then turns to questions about how we define God’s omnipotence: Doesn’t the existence of any sort of limitation placed upon God imply he is bound by higher principles and thus not omnipotent? Possibly; but this may just be a lack of imagination on our part. For example, can God abanlqhgfznsjks? Probably not, because that particular string was just a random assortment of keys that I pressed; it conveys nothing meaningful, so to ask if God could abanlqhgfznsjks might not really be asking anything at all.
- recursivedoubts 1y agothe human mind fails at infinities i don't know why we find this so obvious when discussing math and yet so difficult when discussing God
- arp242 1y agoWith modern technology you can probably liquefy a camel sufficiently that you force it through the needle. Jesus ain't said nothing 'bout no hydrochloric acid and pneumatic presses.
- ndsipa_pomu 1y agoProbably easier to just make a really big needle
- arp242 1y agoYes, but that would be less entertaining :-)
- ipython 1y agoThere’s a whole sect who believes the opposite- that you are more spiritual and blessed by God the wealthier you are. Somehow being material wealthy is now a signal of your spirituality. :shrug: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity_theology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity_theology
- hiatus 1y agoThis is the outcome when pearls are cast before swine.
- preachermon 1y agoWhat's missed is that the camel/needle thing is a joke. The "eye of the needle" was a (very small) gate into Jerusalem. To get a camel through that gate, it has to lower its head and crawl on its knees. So Jesus was calling rich people camels; camels can be very arrogant beasts so it fits.
- Yossarrian22 1y agoThere are no primary sources for this
- SketchySeaBeast 1y agoDan McClellan, a biblical scholar (a practising Mormon, but not an apologist) discusses that here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlzR39RVQKs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlzR39RVQKs
- i80and 1y agoThis is an incredibly common and frustrating bit of bad theology. There's no textual or archeological basis for it, and the really interesting mystery is where exactly this myth even came from. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/new-testament-studies/article/origin-of-the-needles-eye-gate-myth-theophylact-or-anselm/51F6B1FD504C36C42D6201F6D87F83C3 https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/new-testament-studie...
- mikestew 1y agoI, too, used to be a “preachermon”. I never found evidence that this argument was anything but apocryphal. It would make a better argument to find a text describing how Jesus referred to a rich person (real or parable) and said, “this rich person gets it, be like him”. Direct, and without the mental backflips.
- reverendsteveii 1y agoit is, however, very easy to find other ways jesus has phrased the idea "the rich don't get into heaven". In matthew he says the last shall be first and the first shall be last, in acts he has his disciples sell all of their stuff and pool the money, and in several other places he tells the faithful to give all of their stuff away.
- victorbjorklund 1y agoIt is not that easy. If we look at historical context we can see that for example in judaism they have this midrash: "The Holy One said, open for me a door as big as a needle's eye and I will open for you a door through which may enter tents and camels." Sounds familiar? The meaning of that saying in jewish context is that we cant really understand Gods abilities. Could the christian saying mean something else? Sure. We dont even know if jesus even said that exact phrase. My point is more that there are often more than one interpretation of vague sayings from 2000 years that been through an oral tradition, translations and copying.
- michaelmrose 1y agoIn your example the saying suggests that a Camel going through the eye of a needle is an extraordinary event like a rich person going to heaven in the traditional Christian saying. It is incredibly clear and without nuance nor is there a reason to suppose it's an issue with translation. Its also consistent philosophically nor is it the sort of thing that the powerful would want inserted when they compiled works. If you disregard it then it makes more sense to disregard the entire bible.
- lurk2 1y ago> In your example the saying suggests that a Camel going through the eye of a needle is an extraordinary event So is the Son of God descending to earth and being nailed to a cross for the sins of man.
- victorbjorklund 1y agoNo, it is not "incredible" clear what ancient jews meant by that saying. Hence the wildly different interpretations. Are you really saying that it is incredible clear that the jewish understanding of the jewish saying is wrong and only your christian understanding is correct?
- michaelmrose 1y agoHalf the planet either explicitly or implicitly believes in the just world hypothesis and America especially valorizes, empathize s with, and seeks to emulate the rich even when they do nothing to earn their wealth and on average do enormous harm. It is therefore hardly shocking that some fail to see the plain meaning of the language and their confusion needn't imply actual credible controversy. It is pretty clear that the saying you provided and the Christian saying are different sayings with different meanings that share the metaphor about a Camel going through the eye of a needle. The surrounding context is Jesus telling a rich person to give his material wealth away because it is barrier to salvation. It is clear that focus on the temporal comforts privided by wealth stunts ones need for spirituality. The man cannot give up his attachment to wealth and gives up on salvation in the Christian sense. It is hard for me to get from this that the rich are especially virtuos and therefore the only lesson was intended to be taught is that not even the rich can be saved without god. It seems very clear that wealth was a direct impediment to salvation.
- bitbang 1y agoThat’s not what that means at all, your inserting modern values into the parable. In the culture of that time, the rich were viewed with high regard. The understanding was that if you were rich, then clearly you were in a favorable relationship to God because he was blessing you with wealth. With that understanding, the sentence that directly follows the parable makes a lot more sense: “When the disciples heard this, they were greatly astonished, saying, ‘Who then can be saved?’” A modern telling of the parable would replace the rich man with a monk who’s taken a vow of poverty to run an orphanage in a God-forsaken third world country. The parable was intended to portray an absurdly impossible standard to entry; the whole point being that human merit, status, or morality, regardless of however the cultural context may define that, does not afford one any distinctive advantage before God.
- michaelmrose 1y agoGot some links to support this interpretation?
- akomtu 1y agoThe rich is firmly attached to wordly things, they would rather sink with their gold than let it go. The monk that you've described is attached to his self by training it with sophisticated hardships. He hoards inner peace just like the rich hoards gold. Both are practicing the culture of personality. They need to leave that baggage behind, their self-centered life and their polished personas, and reorient their life around helping others. Once they do this, an enormous internal conflict will emerge - the struggle between their selfish and selfless sides, and at the end of this path they'll enter the kingdom of God. Those who want to climb to the mountain top need to leave everything behind. The higher they climb, the longer will be the fall if they look back for a moment and slip on this narrow path, longing for what they left behind.
- hatradiowigwam 1y agoThe message IS clear...but I don't see the same message as you. Solomon was /beyond/ rich. So was David. So were countless people that are destined for heaven(as in, Jesus describes them being in heaven in the new testament). Those people all did some things we can see and talk about - and possibly many things we did not see, do not know, and can not talk about. At the very least, those people we know are in/destined for heaven: followed God, feared God, obeyed God. I don't believe their being or not being rich is part of the calculus for "getting into heaven" as you said. Being rich may make you less likely to do those 3 things though, in which case you would correlate richness with not getting into heaven.
- tdb7893 1y ago'I don't believe their being or not being rich is part of the calculus for "getting into heaven" as you said' -> I think viewing that some rich people go to heaven as Jesus not explicitly condemning rich people (which he clearly does multiple times) and not him showing the unlimited power of God's grace is a misreading of the text. The subsequent verses are much less quoted but very explicit about this: And looking at them, Jesus said to them, “With people this is impossible, but with God all things are possible.” This is supported by other text where Jesus says explicitly what people should do with money: Jesus said to him, “If you want to be perfect, go, sell your possessions and give to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven. Then come, follow me" So anyway it's very clear that using money selfishly (which is what many Christians do) is clearly not what God wants from us, it's just that God can love us for our imperfections and sin, which in my view is sorta the main idea behind the New Testament. God wants us to love each other like he loves us, and he would certainly give up his money for us since he even gave up his own son, but accepts that we will be more selfish than that.
- hatradiowigwam 1y ago> God wants us to love each other like he loves us, and he would certainly give up his money for us since he even gave up his own son, but accepts that we will be more selfish than that. I love how you put that, and wholeheartedly agree.
- 1y ago
- lurk2 1y agoWealth is not universally maligned in the Biblical tradition. Job is afforded material rewards in this world after his tribulation. Prosperity gospel is plainly contradicted by the Bible (see again: The Book of Job), but so is the Redditor Christianity you are espousing.
- ImJamal 1y agoYou are just wrong. The Bible never says that rich people aren't getting into heaven. Only that it will be difficult.
- dragonwriter 1y agoThe whole invention of the “Eye of the Needle” gate fiction is an attempt to rewrite a Gospel statement by Jesus that it is difficult-to-the-point-of-impossibility into one that it is merely difficult-in-the-sense-of-mild-inconvenience.
- wavemode 1y agoHave you ever even read the passage? > 25 It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.” > 26 And they were greatly astonished, saying among themselves, “Who then can be saved?” > 27 But Jesus looked at them and said, “With men it is impossible, but not with God; for with God all things are possible.”
- mrguyorama 1y agoThis sure doesn't look like ancient Hebrew to me.
- _--__--__ 1y agoWell yeah, the gospels were written in Koine Greek
- codr7 1y agoAnd I seriously doubt he would approve of Christianity as practiced in general.
- DougN7 1y agoWell as practiced by supposed believers. He said there will be many to whom he’ll say “I never knew you”. And I expect they’ll be actually surprised, until they really compare their actions to what he taught.
- 1234letshaveatw 1y agonon-believers always seem to be the expert in that sort of thing
- freedomben 1y agoHypocrisy is always easier to see from the outside. That said I do think non-believers (such as myself) often have unreasonable and unrealistic "standards" for what they expect from a Christian. That said many Christians I know are much harsher critics of other Christians who don't live their beliefs than most of the atheists I know, and IMHO that's how it should be.
- codr7 1y agoOh dear, who cares what anyone believes? I can read, and I have read the whole thing, several times, I know what Jesus taught. And it's perfectly obvious that very few so called Christians even come close.
- tartuffe78 1y agoHe's coming back as a lion though right? We seem primed for authoritarian Jesus (in America at least)
- freedomben 1y agoYes exactly, first time he came as lamb, next time as a lion. It's going to be ugly, and people rejecting him isn't going to stop it. Disclaimer: No longer a believer so take with a grain of salt
- XorNot 1y ago[flagged]
- codr7 1y agoInsulting to whom, and why? It's objectively true in general from what I can see.
- XorNot 1y agoConsider maybe how a broad statement on people's relationships: you know, their marriages, long term partners, people they raise children with sounds. Like I said: it shouldn't be hard to figure out why.
- sjsdaiuasgdia 1y agoMaybe the Christ-following Christians should be a bit more vocal about the people who wear the same label but do not align to their beliefs.
- vel0city 1y agoThe political party allegedly being the voice for Christian views has an extremely anti-immigrant stance, sending people to pretty extreme prisons for little evidence of doing anything wrong but being someplace with questionable paperwork. They want to eliminate school lunches. They're trying to massively downsize Medicaid. All to help wealthy people build bigger barns. Seems pretty at odds to the things Jesus taught us to do. Matthew Chapter 25: 40 “The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.’ 41 “Then he will say to those on his left, ‘Depart from me, you who are cursed, into the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his angels. 42 For I was hungry and you gave me nothing to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me nothing to drink, 43 I was a stranger and you did not invite me in, I needed clothes and you did not clothe me, I was sick and in prison and you did not look after me.’ 44 “They also will answer, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or needing clothes or sick or in prison, and did not help you?’ 45 “He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me.’ Leviticus 19:33-34: When a stranger sojourns with you in your land, you shall not do him wrong. You shall treat the stranger who sojourns with you as the native among you, and you shall love him as yourself, for you were strangers in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God. Luke 12: 16 And he told them this parable: “The ground of a certain rich man yielded an abundant harvest. 17 He thought to himself, ‘What shall I do? I have no place to store my crops.’ 18 “Then he said, ‘This is what I’ll do. I will tear down my barns and build bigger ones, and there I will store my surplus grain. 19 And I’ll say to myself, “You have plenty of grain laid up for many years. Take life easy; eat, drink and be merry.”’ 20 “But God said to him, ‘You fool! This very night your life will be demanded from you. Then who will get what you have prepared for yourself?’ 21 “This is how it will be with whoever stores up things for themselves but is not rich toward God.”
- roywiggins 1y agoIf he shows up like he does in Revelation it's going to be a bit more dramatic than the first time around.
- blooalien 1y ago> If he shows up like he does in Revelation it's going to be a bit more dramatic than the first time around. Yeah, for sure. They'd best hope that he don't return anytime soon if the Christian bible's description of his return has any validity to it, because he's supposed to return with a flaming sword and a host of angels behind him, and he's likely to be raging pissed at the majority of (Christian) humanity for the way they've twisted his words and teachings.
- snarf21 1y agoEspecially the 3rd, which isn't just about swearing.
- robofanatic 1y agoAs a non-believer I am worried what will he do to us.
- paxys 1y ago[flagged]
- lokar 1y agoThey have more basic issues: Just one-third of U.S. Catholics agree with their church that Eucharist is body, blood of Christ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/08/05/transubstantiation-eucharist-u-s-catholics/#:~:text=Overall%2C%2043%25%20of%20Catholics%20believe,body%20and%20blood%20of%20Jesus. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/08/05/transubst...
- phkahler 1y agoI think the Carholic church has decided it's dangerous to accept parts of the Bible as metaphor, so they must force a literal interpretation on everything - even to the point of absurdity. Jesus said it's his body and blood so it must be. Because you know, everyone making a symbolic gesture always says that's what they're doing...
- lokar 1y agoAs a non-religious person, I wonder, if you reject a bunch of catholic ideas (the authority of the pope, the Eucharist, catholic social teaching, etc), why not just be protestant?
- lupusreal 1y agoThe Catholic Church is broadly accepting of metaphorical interpretation, but with respect to the blood and wine specifically they committed to that literal interpretation a very long time ago.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- xwowsersx 1y agofare* poorly
- hatradiowigwam 1y ago> Statistics and wagering aside, IMO, he'd fair poorly (like the previous visit). If I remember correctly...his first visit was prophesied to end exactly as it did. His next visit is prophesied to be a little different - to paraphrase...he is coming with an army to make war on the beast and all [humans] who follow him. Instead of a spotless robe like earlier depictions - this robe is drenched in blood, and he has a sword coming out of his mouth. Here's the passage immediately following description of this second coming(Revelations 19). “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.” I don't think this visit is supposed to be like the previous one. I strongly encourage you all read this book(the bible) and take it to heart. You aren't my friend, or someone that I know - but it would give me no pleasure at all to know you were spending eternity in hell. We don't get down seeing people suffer, or "you'll all be sorry when you see I'm right!!!" style feelings. If those true believers seem like a bunch of elitist jerks who are always putting you down instead of helping you up, those are /NOT/ true believers. Those are true assholes.
- Tijdreiziger 1y agoBut what evidence supports the theory of heaven and hell? I mean, according to the Hindus and Buddhists, we’ll be reincarnated rather than going to heaven/hell. We could read the Bible, or the Qur’ān, or the Vēdas, or the Buddhist scriptures, or any other religious text… but how would we know whether any of them holds truth?
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- tomhow 1y agoThis comment and subthread has nothing to do with the central topic of the article. It's the epitome of a generic tangent, and has caused just the kind of hellish flamewar that we are most trying to avoid on Hacker News. Please read the guidelines, particularly these ones, and make an effort to observe them in future. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. Please don't fulminate. Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents. Omit internet tropes. Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- jesus2 1y ago[flagged]
- 50208 1y agoLord almighty (lol) ... these folks are so ... I don't even know the word.
- hbbio 1y agoThe elephant in the room is who controls/decides on the outcome. See https://decrypt.co/311634/polymarket-allegations-oracle-manipulation https://decrypt.co/311634/polymarket-allegations-oracle-mani...
- Sniffnoy 1y agoThis is in no way unmentioned in the article! It doesn't consider this a big factor, but it absolutely mentions it.
- thefourthchime 1y agoBump!
- seeknotfind 1y ago> The True Believers hypothesis rings false because that would be a frankly ridiculous belief to hold. Sometimes people profess ridiculous things, but very few of them put their money where their mouth is on prediction markets. It sounds like the author is saying the belief is ridiculous in general. However, if Jesus returns, then the believers would ascend to heaven. So, they would not be able to cash out. What if polymarket put in the money to drive people to vote on the no side? It could be quite a marketing stunt.
- choult 1y ago[flagged]
- yabones 1y agoCalling my bookie to run some numbers on Pascal's Wager... (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager)
- blendergeek 1y agoThis article fails to address that most true believers would not see any point to betting on the yes. If Christ returns this year, the world is done and there is no upside to having bet that he would. Temporal things (like prediction markets) will cease to be interesting when Christ returns. Given that, I highly doubt that the people betting yes actually believe that Christ will return this year.
- PaulHoule 1y ago... and a lot of those folks don't think you should gamble! But really if it happened you wouldn't have any need for money, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sermon_on_the_Mount https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sermon_on_the_Mount
- wslh 1y agoJokes aside, it would be interesting to see if the people betting "yes" are also placing predictions on events after 2025 since truly believing in Christ's return that year should make many irrelevant.
- scarmig 1y agoYou'd still want to hedge.
- cvoss 1y agoRight? If you believe the odds of something are 51/49, you can say both 1) I believe the event is more likely than not, and 2) I absolutely will not bet the farm on the event.
- msgodel 1y agoI've tried to explain this to people before. Polymarket's contracts aren't purely poles for people's predictions, some people just want to be long volatility for any number of reasons. The recent doge tax refund is a good example. If you want to be guaranteed payment you could bet on no even if you think it's a coinflip.
- ty6853 1y agoHigh probability bets on polymarket usually pay worse than the prevailing interest rate, and on top of that you have to deal with counterparty risk.
- Supercompressor 1y agoThis is mentioned in the link.
- speedylight 1y ago[flagged]
- blooalien 1y ago> Someone should tell Jesus to avoid the U.S. or he’ll get deported back to heaven. Nah. Trump would deport him straight to Hell for sure. His plan is to make all foreigners suffer for daring to want a better life.
- delichon 1y agoThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources. I'm too skeptical to believe that a source is credible if that source claims any resurrection, let alone of a messiah. If a man who looks just like Jesus in the images showed up and performed all of the same miracles, I still wouldn't believe it. I wouldn't believe it if the Pope declared it true, or something claiming to be God announced it into my ear. At the very least they should name the credible sources in advance, because the bet is on their credulity.
- ARandomerDude 1y ago[flagged]
- tempestn 1y agoThis is actually interesting. What would make you believe it? Is there any evidence at all? I agree that almost anything I can think of would be more likely some kind of trick. Or in the most extreme examples I'd have to assume there's a good chance I was experiencing some kind of psychosis. So I'm not sure I could actually be convinced either. I suppose if I personally witnessed clearly impossible miracles being performed and multiple people I know and trust corroborated what I was seeing, that might do it.
- haunter 1y agoIt’s not a betting market though but a prediction market. There is no house and odds.
- paulryanrogers 1y ago[flagged]
- ivape 1y agoKeep in mind true believers often learn to live with a massive cognitive dissonance This is quite true. Taking away just the moral teachings is not true belief. Revelations is serious business stuff, the apostles watched Christ ascend from Mount Olive, it’s extremely trippy things. True believers are literally believing in wild shit. In fact, if you are true believer, you almost need to keep it hidden because it’s going to come off as mentally ill. With that said, I somehow can’t seem to deny it anymore because reality is just not explainable. Reality is the most ridiculous explanation for why the Big Bang happened and we’re all just here in a perfect little globe. This “real” explanation is so batshit that the supernatural explanation is more sound - at least to me. The closest science has gotten was to actually corroborate that, yes, this was all not infinite and had a starting point (big bang), literally corroborated let there be light. The quantum stuff just gets even more supernatural. Maybe I’m going mentally ill, but I tend to take the supernatural stuff quite seriously now.
- foxygen 1y agoWhat is so special about reality?
- ivape 1y agoPurpose. That there was a purpose for all of this. If we believe there was no purpose for all of this, then what a hopeless thing. I just look at the erasure of Gaza and have become more and more religious, because my god what a hopeless end if this all isn’t saved at the very end. I feel that way about many of today’s ills. Purpose and hope, even if the answer is utterly magical.
- nlavezzo 1y agoIf you're interested in some of the classic intellectual / philosophical arguments for faith (albeit from a Christian perspective) you should check out "Reasonable Faith" by William Lane Craig.
- LightBug1 1y ago[flagged]
- enaaem 1y ago[flagged]
- amendegree 1y ago[flagged]
- energywut 1y ago[flagged]
- jebarker 1y agoHow much does this kind of Time Value of Money effect and other similar effects determine trading in the stock market? i.e. just trading based on predictions about what other traders will do rather than just beliefs about the value of the underlying assets?
- ivape 1y agoThings are supposed to get real bad before it happens. World War 2 should have been it really, but I guess even that wasn’t bad enough. The gospel has also not been preached to every nation, so there are billions that are unaware of it (this is a prerequisite).
- em-bee 1y agochristianity has spread all over the world. it is being taught in every nation. all muslims know about jesus because mohammad too talks about him. buddhists and hindus have christian and muslim neighbors. so where are those unaware billions?
- wiradikusuma 1y agoI read many comments that essentially say, "Today's (how we practice) Christianity/churches are definitely not something he'd approve of when he returns". I live in the largest Muslim country in the world, and I'd say the majority of people also think that the "commercialization" (for lack of a better term) of their religion is also "too much". It seems people do have a "conscience" (for lack of a better term). But why do we still see people selling God on TV (and it sells)? It's like people complaining about their government, but they don't take action.
- Henchman21 1y agoIt’s reasonable to not like something and realize you alone are powerless to change it. The actions necessary at this point require collective action. This is exceptionally hard when the public’s opinion is sliced and diced like a fat sow.
- hatradiowigwam 1y ago> I live in the largest Muslim country in the world Are you a Muslim? I have a question for you... if I crawled onto your doorstep beaten and starving, would you invite me in and feed you? I am ignorant of Muslim teachings, and I don't know if this sort of things is covered...that's why I'm asking you. I'm a Christian, and if you crawled onto MY doorstep, I would be ashamed with myself if I did not invite you in and care for you. If your faith urges you to help the helpless, and my faith urges me to help the helpless... why do Muslims and Christians seem so opposed? If the news is to believe, we're like matter and anti-matter, we can't be friends, and at some point it always devolves to violence from one or both of the sides.
- judahmeek 1y agoYou should look up the free ebook by Bob Altemeyer called Authoritarians. It explains how religious organizations that highly value authority and discourage critical thinking get corrupted.
- wiradikusuma 1y agoI'm not a Muslim, but I'm very sure it (and all religions, I suppose) has the same teachings. In my opinion, they seem opposed because both religions claim to be the only source of truth and strongly try to spread that belief. It's like TAB vs SPACE, you can't have both in the same file, and ideally not in the same project.
- enaaem 1y agoThere is a conspiracy theory going around that Trump is an Anti-Christ.
- imchillyb 1y agoPeople do kind of worship at Trump's feet. The actual anti-christ is going to have a high priest that performs miracles in his presence. Like magic tricks but more real. The anti-christ is also going to receive a mortal head wound and resurrect 3 days later. ::shrug:: it's all laid out in the Bible. Jesus wasn't ambiguous about anything about Himself, or His opponent.
- krapp 1y agoTo be fair, everything about the Antichrist comes from John of Patmos and the Book of Revelations, not Jesus, and was probably about Nero Caesar[0]. [0] https://old.reddit.com/r/AcademicBiblical/comments/14nnbwt/why_is_the_book_of_revelation_considered_to_have/ https://old.reddit.com/r/AcademicBiblical/comments/14nnbwt/w...
- jihadjihad 1y agoA relevant passage in the gospels is as follows [0]: > Now as He sat on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to Him privately, saying, “Tell us, when will these things be? And what will be the sign of Your coming, and of the end of the age?” And Jesus answered and said to them: “Take heed that no one deceives you. For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many. And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places. All these are the beginning of sorrows. > “Then they will deliver you up to tribulation and kill you, and you will be hated by all nations for My name’s sake. And then many will be offended, will betray one another, and will hate one another. Then many false prophets will rise up and deceive many. And because lawlessness will abound, the love of many will grow cold. But he who endures to the end shall be saved. And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in all the world as a witness to all the nations, and then the end will come. Regardless of one's faith, from reading this text it is apparent that things would need to get substantially worse than they are today to warrant the return of Christ. In particular the part about being delivered up to tribulation--similar persecutions have happened in history but the scale necessary for such an event as described would be immense. 0: https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%2024&version=NKJV https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%2024&ve...
- akomtu 1y agoThere is a more detailed prophecy of these events: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Masih_ad-Dajjal https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Masih_ad-Dajjal "The Dajjal will imitate the miracles performed by Jesus, such as healing the sick and raising the dead, the latter done with the aid of demons. He will deceive many <...>" As for the time of events, I find this the most compelling: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrological_age https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrological_age https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Year https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Year Earth's polar axis slowly rotates, with a period of 26,000 years. This period is divided into 12 ages: the age of Aries, Pisces, Aquarius and so on. A lot of christian symbology revolves around sheep and fish. Symbolically speaking, 2000 years ago, Aries died to begin the age of Pisces. Similarly, in around 2150, Pisces will yield to Aquarius. It's also interesting that the age of Aries is considered the last age of the 12, after which the next great cycle begins (see Pistis Sophia). Whether this has astronomical foundation is a question.
- dfilppi 1y ago[dead]
- excalibur 1y agoEveryone just seems to assume that whether Jesus has returned will be obvious and easily verifiable. As if they could prove that Jesus isn't already here.
- imchillyb 1y agoMatthew 24:4-31 describes -the exact- method of His return. The description is very much like an alien force deceleration within our solar system, and arriving en masse. It'll be noticeable worldwide. Read this and tell me if there's any ambiguity. --- 4 And Jesus answered and said to them, “See to it that no one misleads you. 5 For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and they will mislead many people. 6 And you will be hearing of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for those things must take place, but that is not yet the end. 7 For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places. 8 But all these things are merely the beginning of birth pains. 9 “Then they will hand you over to tribulation and kill you, and you will be hated by all nations because of My name. 10 And at that time many will fall away, and they will betray one another and hate one another. 11 And many false prophets will rise up and mislead many people. 12 And because lawlessness is increased, most people’s love will become cold. 13 But the one who endures to the end is the one who will be saved. 14 This gospel of the kingdom shall be preached in the whole world as a testimony to all the nations, and then the end will come. 15 “Therefore when you see the abomination of desolation which was spoken of through Daniel the prophet, standing in the holy place—let the reader understand— 16 then those who are in Judea must flee to the mountains. 17 Whoever is on the housetop must not go down to get things out of his house. 18 And whoever is in the field must not turn back to get his cloak. 19 But woe to those women who are pregnant, and to those who are nursing babies in those days! 20 Moreover, pray that when you flee, it will not be in the winter, or on a Sabbath. 21 For then there will be a great tribulation, such as has not occurred since the beginning of the world until now, nor ever will again. 22 And if those days had not been cut short, no life would have been saved; but for the sake of the elect those days will be cut short. 23 Then if anyone says to you, ‘Behold, here is the Christ,’ or ‘He is over here,’ do not believe him. 24 For false christs and false prophets will arise and will provide great signs and wonders, so as to mislead, if possible, even the elect. 25 Behold, I have told you in advance. 26 So if they say to you, ‘Behold, He is in the wilderness,’ do not go out; or, ‘Behold, He is in the inner rooms,’ do not believe them. 27 For just as the lightning comes from the east and flashes as far as the west, so will the coming of the Son of Man be. 28 Wherever the corpse is, there the vultures will gather. 29 “But immediately after the tribulation of those days the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light, and the stars will fall from the sky, and the powers of the heavens will be shaken. 30 And then the sign of the Son of Man will appear in the sky, and then all the tribes of the earth will mourn, and they will see the Son of Man coming on the clouds of the sky with power and great glory. 31 And He will send forth His angels with a great trumpet blast, and they will gather together His elect from the four winds, from one end of the sky to the other. --- Sun darkened. Heavens shaken. Loud trumpet sound. Host arriving. God didn't originate on Earth. Alien. Alien invasion. Re-invasion? Neat huh? OH! Did you know the Bible also mentions a Dragon, called Leviathan. And zombies: "...they shall seek death and not find it. Death will flee from them..." His story. Best story ever.
- nickpsecurity 1y agoWe dont know the day or hour. Yet, the end won't come until the Gospel has reached all nations. Likely, people groups. https://biblehub.com/matthew/24-14.htm https://biblehub.com/matthew/24-14.htm https://joshuaproject.net/ https://joshuaproject.net/ Jesus also warns that His message, the Gospel (GetHisWord.com), will be universally hated across the world by those who dont believe. The Devil will inspire people to censor it to prevent both people's sins being forgiven and godliness in nations. This is happening. https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-where-christianity-is-illegal https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries... https://www.persecution.com/ https://www.persecution.com/ As for signs of the end, a number must happen. Many already happened or are happening. That should worry non-believers while friends of Christ are encouraged. I listed some here: https://gethisword.com/signsofthetimes.html https://gethisword.com/signsofthetimes.html A few more that may or may not be in the article. God's Word predicts Jews wont worship in the temple despite taking their country back. They still can't today. Prophecy appears to say there will be a peace deal that lets them do that. Then, the situation will reverse. Two prophets will be preaching and performing miracles before the whole world. YouTube and the Internet make that feasible. The leaders will promote a new, world order. Important aspects will be a world government with one currency. Then, by a mark on the body or forehead, people will be allowed to buy or sell goods (or banned from participation). Our country's leaders, along with business leaders, keep pushing for the same thing in multinational organizations. We also have the tech to do it now. So, there's a few, specific things to look for that will be easy to spot. Christians meanwhile resist attempts to create those things to give non-believers more time to hear the Gospel and repent. If they dont, Jesus says they go into a fiery furnace for the evils they did in their lifetime. Those receiving the mark... which they'll know requires rejecting Jesus as Lord... are tormented forever in the presence of the Lamb.
- em-bee 1y agointeresting. what's the source for there being a world government with one currency?
- nickpsecurity 1y agoGotQuestions often has Biblical answers to common questions. It has supporting data for this one: https://www.gotquestions.org/one-world-government.html https://www.gotquestions.org/one-world-government.html I'll also add that the Bible teaches that Satan puts thoughts in people's heads, including rulers and business elites, to cause them to pr p mote his goals. If true, we will repeatedly see the same ideas pop up that the Bible warns about pushed top-down in many cultures. We'll also see them do damage over time. So, in Revelation, it's a push for world governemnt, a single currency, and ability of governments to dictate both commerce and religion (esp universalism). In Old Testament, the pagans push subjectivism (eg polytheism/atheism), sexual immorality (esp homosexuality), exploitation of the poor, arrogant attitudes, violence, and sacrificing infants for more sex or money. If we see these trends, we're to oppose them because God promises to punish them in Leviticus and Deuteronomy. Historical data confirms that most countries that did such things were destroyed in time. Often from the activities driven by their cultures. That's also why we not only share Christ and His Word but promote character education and righteous government. (Note: Christians being mere humans beings redeemed from sin, but with a human nature, means they will often fall short of the above goals in politics and life in general. Sadly. Doesn't make it any less true, though.)
- delfinom 1y ago[flagged]
- jayGlow 1y ago[flagged]
- guywithahat 1y agoYes you, presumably someone who is not a christian and has never read the bible, know better than billions of christians and the millions of people who've actually read the bible. I'm not religious, but this is a bad take.
- bee_rider 1y ago“Socialist Jesus” is kind of a meme (or, maybe a blowback meme on Capitalist Jesus). But, he was apparently pretty into taking care of the poor, right?
- vintermann 1y agoSelling all you own and giving the money to the poor, even. One thing Jesus was definitely not, was an optimizing utilitarian. He repeats in a dozen different ways in the Sermon on the Mount that people should do what is right, right now, and not worry about what's going to happen (worry about tomorrow, worry about what they will eat, what they will wear etc.)
- guywithahat 1y agoThe meme relies on assuming Socialism==being a good person. This is obviously not the case, as any economic structure is more complex than just being a chill dude, and the bible has a more complex view of morality than just "being nice to thy neighbor".
- bee_rider 1y agoIt also relies on modern understandings of the words “socialist” and “capitalist,” which, as far as I know, hadn’t been invented yet when the Bible was written. Memes are silly, that’s the point.
- m3kw9 1y agoIt’s a rug pull
- josephcsible 1y agoMatthew 24:36: But of that day and hour no one knows, neither the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but the Father alone. Mark 13:32: But of that day or hour, no one knows, neither the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father.
- zb3 1y agoWell, but who would then buy the "yes" bet at an elevated price?
- chrchr 1y agoRight! The explanation in the article -- that "no" holders will need to sell to buy other things before the market resolves, pushing the price up -- doesn't make sense to me. Sure, maybe the price goes up shortly before the market closes, but that's a hell of a falling knife to try to catch.
- erikig 1y agoHonestly, its a pretty solid hedge if you believe in any version of the rapture.
- legitster 1y agoSo, there are actual geopolitical ramifications of this metric. A lot of US protestant theology is rooted in a concept called "dispensationalism" that was introduced in the mid 1800s. It's a heady concept to explain, but essentially it comes down to a few linked core concepts: - The secret, sudden arrival of Jesus to "rapture" believers away - The world is getting worse, not better. There is limited use in improving society. - Strict literalist interpretation of all scripture (where convenient, obv) - An individual's ability to discern scripture as well as the state of the world - Obsession with Israel as a nation-state https://christianhistoryinstitute.org/magazine/article/dispensational-premillennialism-the-dispensationalist-era https://christianhistoryinstitute.org/magazine/article/dispe... By tracking this number, you have a good proxy for the current fervor of a lot of intertwined political concepts in the US.
- ecocentrik 1y ago- The world is getting worse, not better. There is limited use in improving society. That sounds like 19th century fire and brimstone revivalism. Most Christians are not that nihilistic. The sects that survive and flourish tend to be those that don't impose a fatalistic view of the world.
- amdivia 1y agoI agree with the sentiment, but in this specific case, the "nihilism" is more of a green card to do whatever to better your own life, as there is no point improving anyone else's, just focus on yourself and survive. So here it could be seen as an excuse to not only exploit existing systems, but also to avoid attempts at fixing them. So in a way, holders of such fatalistic believes are ironically flourishing
- ecocentrik 1y agoIs that religion or that just a popular social sentiment held by religious individuals and communities? I understand how it might be hard to tell the difference with heavily fractured Christian sects. Are pastors writing theological treatise on this, are they addressing it in sermons or is this just a shared attitude reinforced by other small town attitudes?
- lysecret 1y agoGood moment to reread the grand inquisitor to be prepared.
- klempner 1y agoThe somewhat moribund Foresight Exchange which is a ~30 year old play money idea futures market has discussed this idea a lot over the years, even to the point of having a number of "True" claims of exactly the form described in the article, such as http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=T2015 http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=T2015
- imnotlost 1y agoTalking about blind faith... people still bet on the Dallas Cowboys after all.
- keeganpoppen 1y agowow this is an absolutely fascinating angle, and one that is quite revelatory about markets in general: the price of an asset is affected by time value of money every bit as much about any other form of "value". my intuition here would be that topics that are more "catnip"-y to "speculators" (which i'd lovingly more accurate call "degenerate gamblers") would be the one with the greatest "time value of money premium", such as it is... and also gets me wondering about how to model this topic preference because it seems like a very cool arbitrage opportunity...
- impostervt 1y agoI take a similar approach to investing on Masterworks (they sell shares of paintings). Most investors seem to buy the upfront offering, which is always $20/share, regardless of the painting. They don't seem to realize that MW holds onto the paintings for years, so it can be hard to cash out. Many will sell at a loss just to get their cash our before the painting is sold, so I can buy their shares very cheap.
- namuol 1y agoFiled under: “NOT the Onion”
- csantini 1y agoI think it's just interest rates. I can easily get 3% per year investing in safe bonds, so I expect at least 3% to put money on any 100% safe bet. I want to be paid for waiting X months
- chrchr 1y agoThat doesn't explain why there's a market for "Yes". For "No" to be worth 3% instead of 0%, there must be people who think "Yes" will in some way be worth 3% or more.
- ddp26 1y agoI've been involved in prediction markets for a while, and this story highlights why I'm now more optimistic about using AI than crowdsourcing humans. So much, possibly the vast majority, of intellectual energy that goes into prediction markets is not about forecasting. Like the example Eric gives of “This Market Will Resolve No At The End Of 2025”, it's about arbitrage, it's about edge cases, it's about interest rates, it's about resolution disputes, it's about sniping the dumb money faster than others. Prediction markets are a brilliant way to incentivize accuracy and good research. But you don't see much of that on Polymarket.
- JohnMakin 1y agoI can shed some light on this, maybe - In the year before the 2020 election, a market opened on predictit called "Will Hillary run for president? Yes/No" First this was a reasonable market, but quickly it became obvious she wasn't running (because she repeatedly said she wasn't, there was no campaign created at all, absolutely zero indicators she was running because she wasn't). Predictit allowed a comment section where people worked themselves into a frenzy every time some hillary "news" dropped that somehow secretly indicated she was running a phantom campaign. She missed primary registration deadlines - that only made the "Yes" market move up. There were still people hammering Yes up until a few weeks before the actual election and they closed the market. Anyway it was the same thing. Low % "Yes" and 95+% "No." However, I found an edge holding on to a "baseline" Yes I'd established (1-2%, I can't remember) and just sell the waves of "news" that would spike it to 5+%. Then buy again at the baseline. There were a lot of shenanigans in the comments and people attempting to move the market with various tactics - it was a wild ride and one of my favorite markets I'd ever studied/participated in. There are probably some true believers in the "Yes" jesus purchasers here but I imagine a lot of what I'm describing here too.
- mettamage 1y agoSounds similar in theme with what happened to Hertz. I think at some point it was bankrupt but speculation still had the share price way above what it was worth (nothing).
- BJones12 1y agoThe original shares ended up being worth $8. There might have been a point during the bankruptcy were they were worth nothing (due to changing used car values) but in the end they were worth something. https://nypost.com/2021/05/12/hertz-investors-snag-8-a-share-in-surprise-bankruptcy-win/ https://nypost.com/2021/05/12/hertz-investors-snag-8-a-share...
- mettamage 1y agoYea but that's the thing, if a company is bankrupt, shouldn't it be 0? Like rationally? In that sense, it feels thematically similar as people were trying to outsmart each other with trickery.
- devrandoom 1y agoFat chance based on the treatment he got last time.
- throw7 1y agoThe way they will arrive at the answer is very vague... "The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources." I'd like to know the list of said sources and what consensus means (51%?). Presumably, this question can be asked and answered every minute? hour? so we could have up to the minute coverage of the second coming.
- severusdd 1y agoSo, how much do I make if I bet 30 pieces of silver on this?
- ecocentrik 1y agoThe discussion in Polymarket revolves around the trustworthiness of the market creator and their resolution criteria. Any discussion here that doesn't consider those things is missing the forest for the trees. The market isn't really about Jesus. Jesus is just the engagement hook. It's the reason this post has 147+ comments on Hacker News and $500k+ in market transactions on Polymarket. There's very little stopping the market creator from citing a guineapig pet lovers blog as his source with a claim that Jesus has returned as an adorable little guy with too much rizz to be anything other than the second coming.
- FajitaNachos 1y agoThe settlement criteria for most of these is pretty strict and clearly laid out in the terms. > The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources. That is pretty sparse, but I suspect Polymarket has a vested interest in making sure this resolves appropriately (as noted in the article). I do like the use of the guineapig with rizz anyway.
- dweez 1y agoGreat point. Never forget about counterparty risk!
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- Sniffnoy 1y agoThe article does mention those things. It doesn't consider them big factors. And "the market isn't really about Jesus" is the article's whole point!
- ecocentrik 1y agoFair resolution is the single biggest issue with prediction markets. I don't see how a market resolution based on the occurrence of a supernatural event isn't a problem.
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- thatjoeoverthr 1y agoIf Jesus returned, people wouldn't believe it unanimously; it would be a scissor like everything else. (I don't even want to give examples.) Conversely, if Jesus has not returned, some people can be convinced that he has. Which brings me to the criteria. What are acceptable criteria? Maybe, "will a plurality of people believe that Jesus has returned in 2025?" Eschatological cults routinely convince small numbers of followers that the end is coming. Hustlers do this all the time. I've been told personally, directly, that we know the date. It's coming. (The date in question came and went.) Given the above, could 2025 be the year of Deep Fake Jesus? Deep Fake Rapture?
- jihadjihad 1y ago> Given the above, could 2025 be the year of Deep Fake Jesus? It does make one think, at least. "Take heed that no one deceives you. For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many."
- bdcravens 1y agoAren't the ones wagering yes basically acknowledging they've failed their religion? According to Christian scripture, they would have been raptured seven years prior to the return of Jesus.
- tengbretson 1y ago> But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only.
- bilsbie 1y agoWhat’s the criteria to resolve the bet?
- bigmattystyles 1y agoIs there such a thing as seeding a market to draw in gullible money?
- dr_dshiv 1y agoAfter studying esoteric Christianity, here’s what I can work out rationally. Jesus was understood as the incarnation of the logos (often translated as “word” but with a much deeper meeting). The logos was the emanation of the pure ineffable oneness — ie, logos is the “son” of god (the oneness). These ideas were worked out by the Jewish-platonic philosopher Philo of Alexandria (b. 50 BCE) and directly influenced early Christianity. The message of Jesus was that we are all part of the logos — and if we believe that, we have eternal life (since the logos is eternal). Since the logos doesn’t die, it’s hard to say how it returns. But you know, I’m probably over thinking this prediction market
- dweez 1y agoTo summarize the article: buying the Yes side of this market is like shorting treasuries. It's not a bet that treasuries will default, but rather a macro bet about that demand for cash (i.e. interest rates) will increase.
- Nevermark 1y agoPolymarket itself has a very strong incentive to offer interesting long odd bets, in the hopes that anyone bites. They get the time value of your money. And it makes the site more interesting. It's free PR. It would be very surprising if they don't know this and are not taking advantage of the dynamic. It isn't even sketchy, nobody loses any value they didn't choose to lose.
- tmiku 1y agoIt's worth nothing that it takes less money than you may expect to significantly shift a prediction market's trading price. This article, while its tone aged poorly with the relevant election results, covers the math behind this quite well. https://quantian.substack.com/p/market-prices-are-not-probabilities https://quantian.substack.com/p/market-prices-are-not-probab...
- john-h-k 1y ago> This article, while its tone aged poorly with the relevant election results, While I get your point, it’s critical to recognise that betting 90% on a six being rolled doesn’t make you correct when a six is rolled. You can believe polymarket was truly mispriced even with this outcome
- xunil2ycom 1y agoif we're betting on fictional entities, let's do the easter bunny next.
- fortran77 1y agoThere's a related business for "After The Rapture Pet Care" https://aftertherapturepetcare.com/ https://aftertherapturepetcare.com/ If anyone want to pay me in advance to take care of their cat after rapture, drop me a line!
- nullc 1y agoThe amounts involved are so small that I'm a little doubtful of this cashflow squeeze pattern actually working, but it doesn't have to work to drive markets. Fun example is the old fax pump and dumps. You'd get some 'market prediction' fax for a penny stock that is very clearly just some pump and dump. No one buying thinks it's anything but a P&D. But they buy thinking other people will be tricked and that they'll get out before the suckers do... so sad for the P&D savvy buyers that they are, in fact, the suckers themselves. It was very important to the effectiveness of the scheme that the faxes be both obvious to be a P&D but also not so obvious that their targets couldn't imagine it fooling anyone. The author though shouldn't underestimate people just spending their funds inefficiently. A lot of people are not really aware that they could just get a risk free return better than they'd get from this thing, and even when they are they've adopted a non-linear utility where they value some unlikely JesusMarket windfall as much more valuable than a (higher EV) bond return. Humans seem to have a pretty predictable mishandling of extremely small probabilities. A lot of cons work by convincing the mark that there is a small (but real) odds of a windfall return. This thing shows up in cryptocurrency markets all the time, you can have some token listed on an exchange with no information at all but some symbol/name and random people will plunk thousands of dollars on it. To some extent there seems to be a kind of wealth brownian motion where your income is proportional to the number of pixels on the internet that, when clicked, cause funds to be transferred to you. Of course, having an actual REASON to pay you is even better, but it's not strictly necessary.
- thrance 1y agoIf Jesus returned, he'd be arrested at the borders for being too woke and not white enough, then sent back to the middle east.
- einpoklum 1y ago"This means that the Jesus Christ market is quite interesting!" Well, you know, if Jesus were to materialize, I think he would probably confiscate all of the winnings, because: >* “It is written,” he said to them, “’My house will be called a house of prayer,’ but you are making it ‘a den of robbers.’”* Matthew 21:13
- NickC25 1y agoJesus hated the money changers. I'm not even religious and I know that he despised usury and gambling. And here we are - people bet on his return.
- elzbardico 1y agoAnyone thinking there are no true believers betting on "Yes" should pay more attention to Modern American Protestantism.
- spiritplumber 1y agohttps://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Fanfic/LeftBeyond https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Fanfic/LeftBeyond I wrote a 500 page story about it, in which I tried to explain LLMs and model collapse, which wasn't bad for 2015.
- amelius 1y agoI have a different bet. Let's suspend all advertising for Him, for two or three generations. Will He revive?
- ranger207 1y agoThis is one of several reasons the prediction value of these markets is nil
- david_shi 1y agosubjective/intersubjective binary event market resolution is one of the most fascinating areas of crypto research uma whales currently have a lot of influence on voting results, but I can't imagine that this won't be addressed at some point https://rekt.news/hedging-bets https://rekt.news/hedging-bets https://app.truemarkets.org/en https://app.truemarkets.org/en
- 1270018080 1y agoToo bad the returns aren't high enough. 3% is lower than a savings account.
- beeandapenguin 1y agoNewton spent the majority of his life trying to answer this question. It'd be more interesting if the question asked “Will Newton’s prediction that the Second Coming won’t happen before 2060 be correct?”, but that might be a bit too long for Polymarket.
- aaroninsf 1y agoCan I bet on never? Please God, let me bet on never
- smitty1e 1y agoThe Good News is that He is en route; the other news is that His driver is named Godot.
- johnea 1y agoIs there some way to short sell this?
- macintosh-hd 1y agoAre we sure this isn’t just that there is some set of bots that just vote contrarian opinions on polls that are nearly 100% in one direction just in hopes of gambling on the high return? It’s possible none of the bets on this topic are even aware how bizarre it is to vote yes.
- macrolocal 1y agoTo be fair, if we're living in a simulation, Jesus does feel a bit like a Chekhov's gun.
- zombot 1y agoIf you believe what the fans are saying then the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ is already happening, they just have a different name for it. They call it AI.
- mariusor 1y ago[edit] ...