ddp26

3 ms·

1.
by ddp26 9d ago
Yes, I heard from one first-rate forecaster that he thinks AI forecasters are especially weak in predicting big disruptive changes to the world. Hard to study this, obviously!
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by ddp26 9d ago
Right. What's really surprising is how much better the best are. Human superforecasters, and prediction markets are surprisingly accurate too. We could live in a world where things are much more chaotic, and the best humans (or AIs) wo
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by ddp26 9d ago
As someone who started working on AI forecasting 3 years ago, I can confidently say that most people did not expect AI to beat Tetlock's superforecasters, Metaculus pros, or prediction markets as quickly as it did.
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by ddp26 9d ago
The Economist has actually published other human forecasts many times, e.g. Metaculus or Good Judgment forecasts. They do year-end forecasts too. Whether they draw on AI or other humans seems immaterial to the quality of their reporting.
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by ddp26 9d ago
I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I think your idea could actually work, but not in financial markets. (The "keynesian beauty contest" of trying to predict what others think been played out to death there.) You could train a mod
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Artificial intelligence now beats some of the best human forecasters(economist.com)
119 points by ddp26 9d ago|102 comments
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There is a channel to 900M weekly users. What goes in it?(lesswrong.com)
1 points by ddp26 10d ago|0 comments
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by ddp26 11d ago
I spent a summer in PNG in 2010, on the island of Karkar. It was wild. One of my most formative memories was finding out that few of the people who live there, even those who are literate, had books and some DVDs, were high school students,
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Reasons robotics is hard(secondthoughts.ai)
131 points by ddp26 24d ago|78 comments
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by ddp26 24d ago
There must be a deeper read on why Google can rapidly ship better small models while being delayed months on the bigger model. What's the simplest explanation?
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by ddp26 24d ago
Even though these predictions turned out mostly wrong, we should not castigate people for publicly forecasting! That is virtuous, and more people should do it. Thank you Ed!
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Models may behave differently in graded episode(lesswrong.com)
2 points by ddp26 24d ago|0 comments
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by ddp26 1mo ago
What are we to infer from no release of gemini-3.5-pro, but frequent releases of smaller flash models (presumably from the same large pre-training run?)
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Jeff Dean's Discovery Loop Should Automate Chip Design First(futuresearch.ai)
2 points by ddp26 2mo ago|0 comments
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Google is in talks for a $1.5B deal to acquire Mechanize(businessinsider.com)
2 points by ddp26 2mo ago|0 comments
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AI isn't enough to protect social media communities from AI(arstechnica.com)
3 points by ddp26 2mo ago|0 comments
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by ddp26 2mo ago
Not forecasting though. You can't goodhart predicting real-world events
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by ddp26 2mo ago
This seems bad for AI safety/risk. Does DeepMind have any checks on model alignment now? What's stopping them from using AI for military/surveillance purposes?
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by ddp26 2mo ago
Would it though? Meta and Microsoft have had very scandalous AI things happen, and their shares didn't tank (or quickly recovered)
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by ddp26 2mo ago
I would have thought Jeff Dean would never ever leave Google. What on earth is going on?
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Show HN: FutureSearch, AI forecasting you can verify(futuresearch.ai)
11 points by ddp26 2mo ago|0 comments
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by ddp26 2mo ago
Isn't this the same as saying "utility regulators delaying connecting new power to the grid hiked electricity prices on the public by $23B?" When my apples are expensive, I don't generally grumble about all the demand fr
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by ddp26 2mo ago
> I can ask an agent to add OAuth, you can ask one to add caching, and somebody else can ask one to rebuild the database from first principles and make the UI pink. Each change can be reasonable in isolation. But this is just bad vibecod
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by ddp26 2mo ago
When I know something is (primarily) AI generated, I lose interest. The exception is when it's about a niche I care about, e.g. an analysis of opening trends of early world chess champions. I'll read AI on that for an hour. My sen
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by ddp26 3mo ago
Is it possible GPT-5.6 is not a very aligned model?
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by ddp26 3mo ago
People have been making claims about the commoditization of llms since chatGPT, and they've been wrong every time as quality and prices and differentiation have increased.
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by ddp26 3mo ago
But Scott's point is more: why even have markets? Once you have the superforecasting available on the questions you care about, why do you need to publish it for everyone to also react to?
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by ddp26 3mo ago
Almost by definition, once AI forecasters are in the market, they won't (all) be beating the market. But why evaluate AI forecasters by beating the market? Do we evaluate deep learning by whether hedge funds make money from it in the m
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by ddp26 3mo ago
Doesn't this argument prove too much? Why does AlphaSense sell their company research instead of using it to trade themselves? Why do people work on open source time series forecasting packages instead of quietly using them to trade?
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by ddp26 3mo ago
Indeed they are! It's funny, in Sept 2024 I and others wrote about how the AI Superforecasters _weren't_ here, despite several claims that they were: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGkRcHqatmPkvpGLq/cont

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