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Dow plunges 2,200 points, Nasdaq enters bear market
- ldng 2y agoWho would have thought ...
- alabastervlog 2y ago[flagged]
- russdill 2y agoOh, and science? Education? Fuck 'em.
- Terr_ 2y ago"Plus, I'm gonna declare that we're already in a secret war with a gang from Venezuela, and use that to kidnap latino-looking people off the streets, and if we find non-citizens--even if they're legally allowed to be here--I'll send them a gulag I rented from the dictator of El Salvador... So don't be mean to me." "Oh, and you know that funding that Congresse passed a law to use somewhere in your state? You'll need to do a few things for me first..."
- selimthegrim 2y agoWho knew the ghost of Christmas past for Trump was actually Marion Barry
- imperialdrive 2y agoHe's never had alcohol due to a family with addiction problems, that's my understanding anyway. I kinda see your point though.
- jfengel 2y agoThe drinker in that story is the OP, coping with the barrage of bad ideas.
- alabastervlog 2y agoMy imagined normal government advisor-sort who's just (figuratively) awoken from a 20-year coma and is attempting to approach this situation, initially, as a normal interaction with a normal President is the one drinking and hitting the crack pipe by the end. I tried not to over-burden it with formatting, but may have gone too light and made that unclear.
- i80and 2y agoThe alcohol pouring is by the narrator in the vignette, not by Trump
- Ensorceled 2y agoPretty sure it's the unnamed guy that's doing the drinking in this scenario. No idea how you worked it out the other way.
- NickC25 2y agoAccording to the original producers of The Apprentice, he's not a drinker but has had an addiction to both Sudafed and Cocaine going back probably 40 years now, which has made him completely incontinent.
- vessenes 2y agoI mean to be fair this was the campaign promise, not like a random decision post election. He’s implementing exactly what he said he would.
- jiggawatts 2y agoYou missed the really brilliant part: using tariffs to force unskilled and low-skilled jobs back onshore while simultaneously mass-deporting most of the unskilled labour force.
- selimthegrim 2y agoWell you know, officer, I was going towards the brothel in order to get away from the brothel....
- gdiamos 2y agoIf I wanted to source semiconductors from the US to avoid tariffs, how would I go about doing that? Don’t micron, intel, and GF have US fabs?
- myHNAccount123 2y agoYou're still going to be paying the higher price so does it matter?
- gdiamos 2y agoWhy do you say that? Because the components are going to become more expensive? Because the US labor is more expensive? Do you know how it breaks down?
- ashoeafoot 2y agoBecause those exvluded from tarifs will take the tatiffed competition sticker price -1$ to milkvtheir good fortune ? money on the table for patriotism ?
- bilbo0s 2y agoBecause the components are going to become more expensive? Of course. Do you think you're the only one who wants to source US semiconductor parts? It's supply and demand. Along with some good ole fashioned profiteering.
- gdiamos 2y agoBut I thought semiconductor manufacturing was high margin?
- ChuckMcM 2y agoGenerally the BOM cost of most hardware is much smaller than the labor cost of assembly. That's why company shipped their semiconductors to low labor cost countries and re-imported finished goods. That said, if the US does enter a depression then the cost of labor in the US will plummet as people compete for jobs which may? change that ratio in favor of manufacturing in the US. That is rumored to be the "big secret" behind these stupid moves but frankly the folks who believe that are not seeing what I'm seeing I guess.
- redwood 2y agoIncompetence has a price
- Kkoala 2y agoYeah Americans are going to learn that the hard way, if they haven't already
- cj 2y agoI'm hoping the lesson we learn is "do everything possible to maintain 3 separate but co-equal branches of government" Tariffs are supposed to be imposed by congress, not the president. The president is using a loophole (declaring a national emergency) to give himself authority to bypass congress. It shouldn't be possible for 1 branch of government to take such drastic measures unilaterally.
- atmavatar 2y agoThe fundamental problem is that political parties (and, in particular, a two-party system) render the existing constitutional checks and balances useless. As long as you have political parties with members spanning all three branches, they are not truly separate branches. We lived in the illusion that this wasn't the case for nearly 250 years because most of the time, elected officials have largely acted in good faith. However, the Republican party (correctly) determined that when it comes to wielding power most effectively, it's in their best interest to protect its own members in all branches rather than members in each branch thinking of themselves as independent of (or even in conflict with) the other two branches as the constitution envisions.
- horns4lyfe 2y agoAh yes, the government has famously been only competent up to this point
- le-mark 2y agoWe didn’t know how good we had it!
- TomK32 2y agoWikipedia has a list for this, point-wise today was #3 pushing yesterday down to #6. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average#Largest_point_changes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_...
- AznHisoka 2y agoShouldn’t we be looking at percentage changes? Naturally, there would be larger point changes as the total market cap of the entire market goes up over time
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- yieldcrv 2y agofor derivatives traders, points is good enough, given how options prices are calculated but yeah, it is a red herring in an industry that’s obsessed with hyperbolic phrasing
- mimirs 2y agoIt’s 6th (yesterday) and 7th (today) by rate.
- vonmoltke 2y agoOnly within the table of 20 largest point drops. Neither even makes the table of 20 largest percentage drops (which is above).
- sgc 2y agoThis metric will be irrelevant shortly. Better to start looking at weekly, monthly, annual declines. No doubt it will soon make this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_a...
- 2y ago
- Prosammer 2y agoI have very little understanding of geopolitics or economics, so these tariffs don't make sense to me, and they don't seem to make sense to most people. What’s the best steelman argument for them? I’ve read a bit of Peter Navarro and others who support this line of thinking, but I’m trying to understand: is there a coherent endgame here that benefits the country long-term, or is this just short-term political theater dressed up as strategy? What would the best possible version of this policy look like if it were smart?
- lucyjojo 2y agothis video had a few good points https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ts5wJ6OfzA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ts5wJ6OfzA
- gwd 2y agoWell, one theory is that Trump wants individual companies to come to him and beg for exemptions to the tariffs. This would consolidate his power: Nobody would dare to do anything that would oppose him, for fear of having their "tariff exemption" revoked. Another theory is that Trump has some complicated plan to reduce the US's debt; again, it involves using tariffs as a "stick" to push our allies into doing what we want. Summarized here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=090CqPrw_AE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=090CqPrw_AE
- eeixlk 2y agoTrump take bribes with companies and countries for exemptions to tariffs. Trump informs insiders of upcoming market manipulations so they can exploit the falls and rises. Inflation rises in the us as companies have fewer competitors and another justification for price increases. Income inequality increases just like the last guy that said lets make america great again.
- darksaints 2y agoThe best (if not only) valid argument for tariffs is that they can be used to negotiate lower tariffs. Because tariffs only serve to reduce trade, which mathematically is suboptimal for economic output, and has been recognized as such by nearly every economist since David Ricardo. Unfortunately, Donald Trump doesn't agree with that. Or his handlers don't. Not that the distinction matters anymore. The diplomatic and trade relations that we are destroying right now can't just be fixed by electing a new President. This is the US's Suez Crisis...we are no longer a world leader.
- rib3ye 2y agoHe had a choice of hard landing vs soft landing. He chose hard landing — looking at history, large scale war follows failed economic war and alliances are arming up in anticipation. I hope Hegseth is ready.
- abuani 2y agoGood news is most of his reserves come from Kentucky, so he won't have to worry about getting hit with tariffs. Oh, you're talking about ready for the military?
- danso 2y agoI didn't understand put options until this month. Today I bought puts w/ 1 or 2-week expirations on virtually all of the top 20 companies (by size) that were at their 52-week high. Didn't matter that I never had heard of some of them (AWK is a water company?), made gains on everything. My only mistake was not betting against Phillip Morris, thinking that people will probably want to vape/smoke even more during this crisis, but nope, they fell 7% too. Obviously it can't be that easy, but seems like the market still thinks Trump might just do a complete 180? I guess he's done so multiple times the last two months, but those threats/alarms seem like dry runs from which he's crafted his current policy.
- cj 2y ago> made gains on everything Just remember you didn't make gains until you sell those puts. If you made a lucky bet and won, sell!
- yieldcrv 2y agoIt can be that easy, but you are gambling. If the market turns for whatever reason, then all your positions go near to zero. Countries acquiesce Or Jerome Powell does an emergency rate cut like the President keeps demanding Or Trump acquiesces Or everyone just decides they oversold everything enjoy the volatility, the first hit is free
- mikestew 2y agoIt can be that easy, but you are gambling. If the market turns for whatever reason, then all your positions go near to zero. They’re options, they can go all the way to zero, not “near to zero” (which is what happens to the majority of options contracts regardless). That said, with options you leverage a lot more shares than buying outright, so the risk can be smaller. And if OP has any sense, they’ve unloaded those positions already and made some serious bank.
- stephc_int13 2y agoThe reason it is not a real market crash yet is the uncertainties around those tariffs, as they seem too absurd to be kept as announced. And I believe this is a correct analysis, but I also think that Trump is over playing his hand and miscalculating the reactions of the world at large. We are going to see a lot more chaos and weird moves during the coming weeks, but I am not optimist about the final outcome.
- jfengel 2y agoWhich is to say: the market hasn't yet fully priced in the effects of the tariffs. It will continue to fall until people have accepted that the tariffs are here to stay. After that it could level off. Or continue to fall, if there are knock-on effects that haven't yet been priced in. (Or, I suppose, a bunch of manufacturing could spring up in the US, superior to the rest of the world, giving us whole new export markets and pushing the Dow into six figures. Let's find out!)
- paulryanrogers 2y ago> (Or, I suppose, a bunch of manufacturing could spring up in the US, superior to the rest of the world, giving us whole new export markets and pushing the Dow into six figures. Let's find out!) Didn't we find out like a century ago with the Smooth-Hawley tariffs? Do we really have to test this again, and now in the sloppiest most haphazard way?
- jfengel 2y agoWe appear to be intent on repeating a lot of old mistakes. So we're gonna find out.
- lvl155 2y agoVietnam already approached this admin hat in hand. Remember they are all politicians and they will do what it takes to remain in power. Having a global financial meltdown is a bluff. Some countries will play the game (smaller ones) and some will not (China).
- ChrisArchitect 2y agoRelated earlier: Dow Slides Another 1k Points. Nasdaq on Pace to Enter Bear Market https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43582292 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43582292
- throwrec 2y ago[dead]
- megamike 2y agoChina retaliates with Tarries hmmm dont Family Dollar Dollar General dont they have a lot of Chinese stuff? Well guess who if frequenting those stores more and more As inflation hits harder, middle-class shoppers gravitate to dollar stores Dollar stores have traditionally served low-income and rural shoppers who have few options to stock up on what they need — but the pandemic is changing that. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/inflation-hits-harder-middle-class-shoppers-gravitate-dollar-stores-rcna7378 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/inflation-hit...
- steveBK123 2y agoHoping the VC bros are enjoying what they sowed. IPOs already getting pulled, M&A market dead, market selloff, inflation persisting (soon to rise), probable max tax brackets to rise, etc.
- 9283409232 2y agoVC bros want a recession so they can buy everything for cheap. I'm sure they are very very happy right now. Pay attention to REITs.
- overfeed 2y agoThey may get that in the short term, but also get higher taxes and a CFPB-on-steroids oversight agency over the next couple of election cycles.
- 9283409232 2y agoI feel like people haven't internalized that there may not be fair another presidential election. The SAFE Act is the most Orwellian bill that is highly likely to pass and would tremendously move things in Republican's favor
- orthecreedence 2y agoI looked this up and it seems like something from 2008 about mortgages? Can you explain why this important?
- overfeed 2y agoI wouldn't say it's important, I'm merey speculating on the likely outcomes of VC bros hitching their wagons to a specific political movement, and the public's demand for action after a financial crisis.
- overfeed 2y ago> I feel like people haven't internalized that there may not be fair another presidential election. The degree of thumbing the scales has to outweigh unpopularity of the incumbent. High voter turnout will beat any attempts of deniable cheating. Which is why unpopular dictators end up imprisoning or disqualifying their opponents , and rather than subverting the voting process. America hasn't reached "desperate dictatorship" levels yet, nor will it be there in 4 years. Extrapolating from current events, congressional Republicans are barreling towards a midterm wipe-out.
- gsibble 2y agoSomething like 60% of consumer spending is by the top 5% of income earners. This is actually a tax on the rich. And they won't care about higher prices.
- sofixa 2y ago> This is actually a tax on the rich Nope, it's a tax on everyone. Rich people will pay more of it, but non rich people will be harder hit as % of income. Same as sales tax/VAT.
- abracadaniel 2y agoThe wealthier you are, the more flexibility you have in your purchasing decisions as well. It’s easier to accelerate or delay a big purchase to save 30% when it’s not something you need to live, or can’t afford to jump on a purchase last minute.
- HarHarVeryFunny 2y agoIt's a tax on everyone. You eat, don't you? Wear clothes? Drive a car? Rich people will pay more for their food too, but they can afford to - they are rich.
- 18172828286177 2y agoAre these tariffs even popular in the US?
- cj 2y agoNo. The uncertainty of what will happen 2-3 weeks or 2-3 months (or 2-3 years) from now is causing a lot of people to react very negatively to this, regardless of their personal politics.
- ty6853 2y agoYes they are incredibly popular amongst cartels and shady characters with import/export business, as Trump just handed them the largest geo-arbitrage payday of their lives.
- icedchai 2y agoDoes anybody want this? Increasing costs and financial chaos aren't good for anyone. Congress needs to do their job and fix this: revoke (or amend) the "emergency" economic powers that allowed Trump to do this in the first place. I realize that is unlikely to happen.
- layer8 2y agoFrom polls, a good half disapproves, while a third approves. The remaining sixth or so is undecided.
- EasyMark 2y agoNo this is because of trump and a few people he picked to agree with him, mostly from the failed Heritage Foundation. They only got a fraction of their project 2025 goals finished by trump so now they want to punish us all with suicidal economic action because they have a cache of money and gold and can weather it. Trump could have been pro business, kill of regulatory state, reduce some of the size of military obligations and government entitlement programs. Instead he pushed the economy off a ledge.
- throwrec 2y ago[dead]
- hankchinaski 2y agoBe gready when others are fearful, glad to see everyone on this thread is the greatest hedge fund manager of all time selling and shorting, happy days
- dismalaf 2y agoAnother more apt saying in this case: don't catch a falling knife...
- wonderwonder 2y agoMeh, I shorted the Dow a couple months ago, I was early but its paying off now in gangbusters. He has been shouting what he was going to do for months now, free money
- le-mark 2y agoThree plus more years of this too. Fortunes will be made.
- chasd00 2y agoYeah I went 100% to cash about 5 days ago. Jobs report came in ok, I think Trump is enjoying the side effect of forcing the fed to lower rates to stave off recession. On the other hand the market is super emotional right now and not making sense. I’m out until the dust settles. I have to admit, it’s nice to see Wall Street twist in the wind when they’ve been running the show for so long. Remember the financial crisis when Bush (R) wrote them a $800B check and Obama (D) delivered it hat in hand? Suck it wall st.
- arghandugh 2y agoTrump and the Republican Party have forcibly assumed control of the federal government, dismantled it, voided every function of the Constitution and replaced people critical to the functioning of global affairs with morons and lunatics. The economic and social and international underpinnings of the planet have been detonated on purpose so the remaining pieces can be reordered for their exclusive benefit. This is just the beginning, and I can’t wait to see even more threads here trying to rationalize why this is all Good, Actually before a thread discussing the end of Pax Americana gets killfiled by an Altman acolyte.
- superconduct123 2y agoSay hypothetically the Tarrifs are all reversed on Monday, does the market go back to normal?
- vizzier 2y agoSeems doubtful. Trust is earned slowly but spent quickly.
- krapp 2y agoNo, why would it? The United States has burned trust and credibility that can never be recovered. Its collapse into a pariah state like North Korea or Russia, cut off from diplomatic ties and trade and left by most of the world to decompose into an irrelevant husk is inevitable. The market will adapt, likely after years of global depression, with China and Europe competing to become the new global hegemon. The normal that existed prior to Trump, like all those jobs he promised, is never coming back. If you see a Trump supporter, be sure to thank them.
- ethics13 2y agoThis is a bit of hyperbole. Market will normalize, the most extreme case which even the biggest critics of Trump argue, will be recession. Even that's a probability and not a certainty. How are you predicting Depression (global no less)? Speaking as one of the biggest Trump critics.
- Macha 2y agoDefine go back to normal. Will it go up from where we are? Sure. Will it immediately return to its former highs, unlikely, the US government has now proven to be a lot more unpredictable and risky than the previous prices assumed. Will it eventually inch its way back to the highs, probably.
- ThatMedicIsASpy 2y agoThe current US government is a circus full of unqualified yes-people - the only thing that stops losing even more is to disband the circus.
- 2y ago
- codedokode 2y agoBy the way, in US do federal and local governments give a preference to locally manufactured products in government purchases?
- kylehotchkiss 2y agoAnecdotally, most federal vehicle seem to be from national brands. State and local government there doesn't seem to be much a consistent policy.
- Smilliam 2y agoThe federal government does. It was signed into law in 1933[1]. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buy_American_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buy_American_Act
- lvl155 2y agoFirst of all, I don’t like Trump. I’ve voted blue all my life. Having said that, Trump is the only one willing to play ball with the Chinese. And the US national debt is not sustainable at this level. Something has to break in order to bring down servicing costs. I am not saying this is the right way to do all this. Far from it. But we do have a huge debt problem in this country and Chinese corps do not play by the rules (ie IP is nonexistent). This could go wrong in so many ways and eventually undermine US strength while boosting Chinese global influence even further.
- sachinjoseph 2y agoSo this is the wrong way but will still address the deficit? How exactly will this address the deficit?
- lvl155 2y agoHe’s (rather Bessent) literally crashing the economy in order to force the Fed to lower the rates. To be fair, a soft landing was a pipe dream. Bessent has a long history of talking about this type of reckoning.
- sachinjoseph 2y ago"Setting the building on fire was and in turn the entire blockthe only way to address the creaky floors". There's no Trump masterplan here (or anywhere else) than the sanewashing of his bs by his fanbois.
- bryanlarsen 2y ago> Trump is the only one willing to play ball with the Chinese Biden was also willing to do so. For example, he put a 100% tariff on electric cars. > But we do have a huge debt problem in this country. Which is largely Trump's fault. He increased the debt by $8T versus Biden's $5T, and people costing his promises on the campaign trail concluded that his promises would increase the debt at twice the rate that Harris's promises would have.
- dismalaf 2y agoWhat's especially interesting is that the market already had tariffs priced in, yet what Trump announced was SO bad that the markets have dropped another 10%... My European friends and family are amused... China is going to take the US' place in the world economy, Europe will become more self-sufficient and innovative, the US turning mercantilist will simply reduce their influence in the global marketplace... There's not much the world truly NEEDS from the US... Stuff like semiconductors were outsourced long ago, ASML and TSMC are the most important companies in that equation, neither are American.
- gtech1 2y agoI'm willing to believe this administration is acting in good faith, but two things seem to contradict that, although maybe I'm wrong: 1. Why didn't they include services exported by the US in their 'tariff chart' ? The EU for example, imports a lot more US (tech amongst others) services than they export to the US. It seems disingenous 2. Why couldn't this tariff strategy be implemented in a more calculated, predictable, slow way to give everyone time to adjust, at home and abroad. What's to gain from doing it this way over the one I mentioned ?
- binarymax 2y agoWith what I’ve seen I don’t believe the administration is acting in good faith. Everything about their behavior suggests otherwise.
- Trumpion 2y ago[dead]
- wonderwonder 2y agoI voted for Trump, I think they have very large aspirational ideas. I think they have a very shallow bench to implement the low level details. They are also just terrible at communication, needlessly aggressive and bombastic
- gtech1 2y agoalright, can you try and answer #1 for me ? Why weren't services included in that chart ?
- wonderwonder 2y agoI have a guess but not a solid one. The way they determined the rates on these tariffs makes no sense at all. I wish they would have just explained it instead of pushing back and insisting it was based on real existing tariff rates. They really dropped the ball on this implementation. If I was to hazard that guess, they don't care about services, services are already a dominant US product, no one can beat us. Manufacturing is where we are weak so they went after that. They want manufacturing to come back to the US in case of a war with China over Taiwan. They also don't want counter tariffs on services as again that's our major export. What's really interesting and I could be wrong here is I dont think anyone else has actually hit the US with tariffs on those same services. Its a very calm trade war so far. But its early
- rescripting 2y agoCan someone explain how tariffs aren’t both a tax and inflation, all rolled in to one? These are two of the most toxic words in politics and yet those most allergic to them are relatively quiet.
- wredcoll 2y agoBecause it was never actually about principles.
- vagab0nd 2y agoNot inflation because it's a one time price increase. Inflation is the rate of change.
- scoofy 2y agoThe "inflation rate" is the rate of change. Price being higher than they were in the past is inflation.
- MarkMc 2y agoUltimately a large number of people identify with Trump. So when he says he inherited an awful economy and the tariffs are the cure, they believe him
- xtiansimon 2y ago“… a large number of people identify with Trump.” That’s so true, and I think it undermines reasonable conversations about his actions. Like talking to someone about why they’re rooting for the bad guy in a movie.
- almog 2y agoIf only they he use a fancy French word for what's essentially is "import taxes", I'm pretty sure the election results would have been very different. To put that in Simpsons terms: "The Garage? Well oo la di da Mr. Frenchman." https://youtu.be/JhbJnlIvfyc https://youtu.be/JhbJnlIvfyc
- TooSmugToFail 2y agoWow. Who would have thought that international trade policy written in crayon could go this wrong. Shocked.
- RickJWagner 2y agoStocks have now declined to where they were about a year ago. The Shiller ratio is at 31.3. Stocks have done very well and have been at historically high prices. There is still much room to fall.
- darthrupert 2y ago[flagged]
- geenkeuse 2y ago[dead]