34 ms·

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion:

by tpmx 4y ago

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at magnitude 2.3. They were picked up by stations all over the country. It's clear from the registered seismic waves that the events are not earthquakes. - You can clearly see how the waves bounce from the bottom to the surface. There is no doubt that it was a blast or explosion. We even had a station in Kalix [quite far up north, some 1300 km away] that picked this up, says Björn Lund, who is a lecturer in seismology and director of the Swedish national seismic network, which measures Swedish earthquakes and explosions. Translated and summarized from: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-avslojar-tva-explosioner-intill-nord-stream https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-avslojar-tva-explosio... (Sweden's national public service broadcaster, within the last hour)

bobowzki 4y ago
In a radio interview Björn Lund also says it was a relativly large explosion, equivalent to "a couple of hundred kg of dynamite".
dongobongo 4y ago
Act of war by USA? (equivalent if done through ally)
- brightball 4y ago
  Why would the US do that?
  - bobowzki 4y ago
    To strengthen Europes resolve when it gets cold?
  - fuoqi 4y ago
    Because it cuts a huge temptation for Germans to find some compromise with Russia and allows them to sell LNG for huge profits?
    - ericmay 4y ago
      Doesn't pass the smell test (also we're talking about the entire EU having issues not just Germany). Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out which would destroy any semblance of relations with the EU and significantly strengthen Russia's hand. US companies (and others) are going to sell LNG to Europe for huge profits anyway. These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway The US would prefer energy markets to be stable and not have sky-high prices Russia's invasion of Ukraine was one of the greatest foreign policy gifts in United States history and it significantly strengthened US alliances across the globe and put the entire west in lockstep with each other with regards to Russia and China. Placing that gift at risk is beyond foolish.
      - gpderetta 4y ago
        Yes, if US did it and it becomes public, it would be the best gift to Putin. Then again, Russia might not have the monopoly on stupidity.
        marginalia_nu 4y ago
        Honestly, the timing doesn't make sense. I'd maybe the US blowing the pipelines a year ago when it looked as though NS2 might conceivably go online, but given how frosty relationships are right now between the EU and Russia, and given the scramble to wean Europe off Russian gas-dependency already is in progress, there just doesn't appear to be much of a point, not in the short term and not in the long term.
        throwaway29812 4y ago
        "Why would Russia damage their own pipeline?" Why would Russia invade and annex Ukraine? The answer can be stupid people making stupid decisions, don't assume everything done by a nation-state is logical.
  - dongobongo 4y ago
    If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737 https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737
    - jcranmer 4y ago
      That's not recently, that's 2022-02-07, nearly 8 months ago, and before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    - dongobongo 4y ago
      oops thought it was July...
      - ISL 4y ago
        There's still time to edit an error.
    - 1ris 4y ago
      That's not right, this is isn't even wrong. German policy has always been that this pipeline is a stranded assert once russia shuts it down. Keeping this as a lever and credible threat is vastly important for maintaining a somewhat secure supply of gasoline for east germany. When speaking about a energy catastrophe you really, really want this pipeline shut. In fact germany has taken measures to make sure that the pipelines will not become operational again. Confiscating and removing compressors and reuse them for the planned LNG terminals. If anybody profits from these explosions, it's germany. And russian natural gas revenues hit ground and are now searching for oil themselfs, now.
    - ajsnigrutin 4y ago
      On the other hand, this now means freezing europe and a lot of money for USA, against european peoples interests... especially for people who don't really care about ukraine, as they didn't care about afghanistan, syria, libya etc., and just want a nice life for themselves (so, most people).
  - mynameishere 4y ago
    Biden actually said we would halt NS2 back in February. https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662?s=46&t=kJAzCn_j-narPVNJR3kuww https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662?s=46&t=kJ...
- ed_balls 4y ago
  Similar thing has happened on USA soil (Gas Terminal explosion)
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- bilbo0s 4y ago
  Let's hope no NATO ally would be fool hardy enough to take this action. I'm uncomfortable with light hearted talk about the US and NATO being involved in this. Clearly people speaking so cavalierly about that possibility do not understand the implications of such an act in the alliance system. The purpose of an alliance is not to surprise your partners. It's to ensure your partners are not surprised. On a completely unrelated note: /s Brazil, South Africa, Kenya and Ghana. Property markets had been a little crazy as they are everywhere. I didn't think there was much upside in these markets, but I'm starting to see that perhaps these might be good places for long term residential investment afterall? Probably offer some moderate but steady returns as the insurance policies of the rats, and enormous returns as the most likely places the rats would run if things nosedive. Now I understand the USD4 million condos in Nairobi.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
    "Die Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt."
  - sschueller 4y ago
    The US tapped the German prime Minister Angela Merkel's phone. Not not much of an alliance there. If it serves US interest all bets are off and it's time for everyone to realize that.
- dongobongo 4y ago
  Little bit of circumstantial evidence: https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/ https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunit...
- dongobongo 4y ago
  More evidence: https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines?utm_source=post-email-title&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/us-blew-up-russi...
  - Calvin02 4y ago
    In English, evidence, conjecture, and pure speculation are very different things. This would qualify, at best, as speculation. :)
eloff 4y ago
So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to build it after all. So was this an EU country? The USA? The Ukraine doesn't have resources in the Baltic, right? That's an intriguing mystery.
- netsharc 4y ago
  Maybe the Russian military has some factions, and a faction is thinking surrender. Destroying the pipelines would advantage the faction against surrender, because then the surrenderists would be weaker, since they have less to offer to the EU. Which faction Putin would belong to is a different area of speculation. Or it's really Putin's way of saying "I'm not bluffing, in fact, here's how serious I am, see these pipes for that possible future gas sale?". If he really is destroying something that could make him money in the future, maybe he's really in an "If I can't win then let me flip the board" mood. Which I'd extrapolate to him being in a "Get the nukes warmed up" mood. I wonder what discussion inside the intelligence community is like currently. It'd be amazing. Maybe watch what the senators connected to the intelligence committee are buying/selling.
  - percevalve 4y ago
    Reading that the Norway-Poland pipeline just happened to open today... Sounds like a loud a clear message to me, along the lines of "Gas pipeline seems to be very fragile around here, let's just hope nothing happens to yours". If you add factions into the mix, I would say that this might be what makes the most sense. https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-poland-gas-pipeline-opens-in-key-move-to-cut-dependency-on-russia https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-polan...
    - PartyOperator 4y ago
      There's also the fact that it just shakes things up a bit. Russia isn't benefiting from the pipeline now. Leaving it intact leaves long-term opportunities and risks that strategic actors with time on their side can turn against Russia (or against Putin in particular). Blowing a hole in the pipeline creates confusion, disruption and opportunities today. For what? Unclear, but Putin seems to thrive on short-term crises.
jcranmer 4y ago
Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). * Russia sabotage -- this isn't terribly rational for Russia, but Russia has been unwilling to pursue rational options for a while. I can see someone in Russia thinking this will stoke anger in Germany (and the rest of Europe) that may create European pressure to force Ukraine to end the war (which is the most viable path I see at this point for Russia winning the war). * Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. Especially if it is a demonstration of Ukrainian cyberwarfare capabilities. * Poor maintenance -- this strikes me as unlikely because NS1 is quite new infrastructure (2011), so it would have to be extremely substandard to have failed this quickly, and I believe most of the construction was done by European and not Russian firms, so I don't think that's at all plausible. But there may be some failure modes I'm not thinking of here.
- NeverFade 4y ago
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - ShivShankaran 4y ago
    - jcranmer 4y ago
      > The Siberian pipeline was also sabotaged by the US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_pipeline_sabotage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_pipeline_sabotage I'm skeptical of that claim. It is sourced entirely from an autobiography, and there's no corroborating evidence of the explosion from any other source. > Russia has been pressuring Germany to re-open NordStrom 2 for weeks now. Maybe, but Germany hasn't been close to yielding to that pressure.
mercy_dude 4y ago
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662 https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662
hedora 4y ago
I wonder how it compares to the 1982 pipeline explosion the US caused in a similar situation: https://www.smh.com.au/world/cold-war-hotted-up-when-sabotaged-soviet-pipeline-went-off-with-a-bang-20040228-gdifyv.html https://www.smh.com.au/world/cold-war-hotted-up-when-sabotag... At the time, it was the largest non-nuclear, man-made explosion in history. (The grammar of the first few paragraphs of that story is odd, but the source it cites is solid, and it gets better after a paragraph or two -- couldn't find a better link.)

by tpmx 4y ago

bobowzki 4y ago

In a radio interview Björn Lund also says it was a relativly large explosion, equivalent to "a couple of hundred kg of dynamite".

dongobongo 4y ago

Act of war by USA? (equivalent if done through ally)

brightball 4y ago
Why would the US do that?
- bobowzki 4y ago
  To strengthen Europes resolve when it gets cold?
- fuoqi 4y ago
  Because it cuts a huge temptation for Germans to find some compromise with Russia and allows them to sell LNG for huge profits?
  - ericmay 4y ago
    Doesn't pass the smell test (also we're talking about the entire EU having issues not just Germany). Gigantic risk for the US and would eventually be found out which would destroy any semblance of relations with the EU and significantly strengthen Russia's hand. US companies (and others) are going to sell LNG to Europe for huge profits anyway. These pipelines weren't deliving gas anyway The US would prefer energy markets to be stable and not have sky-high prices Russia's invasion of Ukraine was one of the greatest foreign policy gifts in United States history and it significantly strengthened US alliances across the globe and put the entire west in lockstep with each other with regards to Russia and China. Placing that gift at risk is beyond foolish.
    - gpderetta 4y ago
      Yes, if US did it and it becomes public, it would be the best gift to Putin. Then again, Russia might not have the monopoly on stupidity.
      - marginalia_nu 4y ago
        Honestly, the timing doesn't make sense. I'd maybe the US blowing the pipelines a year ago when it looked as though NS2 might conceivably go online, but given how frosty relationships are right now between the EU and Russia, and given the scramble to wean Europe off Russian gas-dependency already is in progress, there just doesn't appear to be much of a point, not in the short term and not in the long term.
        throwaway29812 4y ago
        "Why would Russia damage their own pipeline?" Why would Russia invade and annex Ukraine? The answer can be stupid people making stupid decisions, don't assume everything done by a nation-state is logical.
- dongobongo 4y ago
  If the pipeline started operating, which it probably would in a few months with energy catastrophe in Europe - it would be total victory for Russia: natural gas revenues through the roof, end of war, etc etc. USA for some reason believes that Russian victory is against its interests. See Biden recently: https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737 https://twitter.com/ah114088/status/1574435558675316737
  - jcranmer 4y ago
    That's not recently, that's 2022-02-07, nearly 8 months ago, and before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
  - dongobongo 4y ago
    oops thought it was July...
    - ISL 4y ago
      There's still time to edit an error.
  - 1ris 4y ago
    That's not right, this is isn't even wrong. German policy has always been that this pipeline is a stranded assert once russia shuts it down. Keeping this as a lever and credible threat is vastly important for maintaining a somewhat secure supply of gasoline for east germany. When speaking about a energy catastrophe you really, really want this pipeline shut. In fact germany has taken measures to make sure that the pipelines will not become operational again. Confiscating and removing compressors and reuse them for the planned LNG terminals. If anybody profits from these explosions, it's germany. And russian natural gas revenues hit ground and are now searching for oil themselfs, now.
  - ajsnigrutin 4y ago
    On the other hand, this now means freezing europe and a lot of money for USA, against european peoples interests... especially for people who don't really care about ukraine, as they didn't care about afghanistan, syria, libya etc., and just want a nice life for themselves (so, most people).
- mynameishere 4y ago
  Biden actually said we would halt NS2 back in February. https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662?s=46&t=kJAzCn_j-narPVNJR3kuww https://twitter.com/abc/status/1490792461979078662?s=46&t=kJ...
ed_balls 4y ago
Similar thing has happened on USA soil (Gas Terminal explosion)
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
bilbo0s 4y ago
Let's hope no NATO ally would be fool hardy enough to take this action. I'm uncomfortable with light hearted talk about the US and NATO being involved in this. Clearly people speaking so cavalierly about that possibility do not understand the implications of such an act in the alliance system. The purpose of an alliance is not to surprise your partners. It's to ensure your partners are not surprised. On a completely unrelated note: /s Brazil, South Africa, Kenya and Ghana. Property markets had been a little crazy as they are everywhere. I didn't think there was much upside in these markets, but I'm starting to see that perhaps these might be good places for long term residential investment afterall? Probably offer some moderate but steady returns as the insurance policies of the rats, and enormous returns as the most likely places the rats would run if things nosedive. Now I understand the USD4 million condos in Nairobi.
- LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
  "Die Hoffnung stirbt zuletzt."
- sschueller 4y ago
  The US tapped the German prime Minister Angela Merkel's phone. Not not much of an alliance there. If it serves US interest all bets are off and it's time for everyone to realize that.
dongobongo 4y ago
Little bit of circumstantial evidence: https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/ https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunit...
dongobongo 4y ago
More evidence: https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines?utm_source=post-email-title&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/us-blew-up-russi...
- Calvin02 4y ago
  In English, evidence, conjecture, and pure speculation are very different things. This would qualify, at best, as speculation. :)

eloff 4y ago

So that doesn't look like an accident. I have difficulty imagining accidental ignition in an underwater gas pipeline. Where would the oxygen come from? Plus it's more than one explosion on the same day - can't be a coincidence. The next question is, who did it? It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. They invested huge sums of money to build it after all. So was this an EU country? The USA? The Ukraine doesn't have resources in the Baltic, right? That's an intriguing mystery.

netsharc 4y ago
Maybe the Russian military has some factions, and a faction is thinking surrender. Destroying the pipelines would advantage the faction against surrender, because then the surrenderists would be weaker, since they have less to offer to the EU. Which faction Putin would belong to is a different area of speculation. Or it's really Putin's way of saying "I'm not bluffing, in fact, here's how serious I am, see these pipes for that possible future gas sale?". If he really is destroying something that could make him money in the future, maybe he's really in an "If I can't win then let me flip the board" mood. Which I'd extrapolate to him being in a "Get the nukes warmed up" mood. I wonder what discussion inside the intelligence community is like currently. It'd be amazing. Maybe watch what the senators connected to the intelligence committee are buying/selling.
- percevalve 4y ago
  Reading that the Norway-Poland pipeline just happened to open today... Sounds like a loud a clear message to me, along the lines of "Gas pipeline seems to be very fragile around here, let's just hope nothing happens to yours". If you add factions into the mix, I would say that this might be what makes the most sense. https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-poland-gas-pipeline-opens-in-key-move-to-cut-dependency-on-russia https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-polan...
  - PartyOperator 4y ago
    There's also the fact that it just shakes things up a bit. Russia isn't benefiting from the pipeline now. Leaving it intact leaves long-term opportunities and risks that strategic actors with time on their side can turn against Russia (or against Putin in particular). Blowing a hole in the pipeline creates confusion, disruption and opportunities today. For what? Unclear, but Putin seems to thrive on short-term crises.

jcranmer 4y ago

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). * Russia sabotage -- this isn't terribly rational for Russia, but Russia has been unwilling to pursue rational options for a while. I can see someone in Russia thinking this will stoke anger in Germany (and the rest of Europe) that may create European pressure to force Ukraine to end the war (which is the most viable path I see at this point for Russia winning the war). * Ukrainian sabotage -- pretty much the only actor for whom sabotage makes rational sense. Especially if it is a demonstration of Ukrainian cyberwarfare capabilities. * Poor maintenance -- this strikes me as unlikely because NS1 is quite new infrastructure (2011), so it would have to be extremely substandard to have failed this quickly, and I believe most of the construction was done by European and not Russian firms, so I don't think that's at all plausible. But there may be some failure modes I'm not thinking of here.

NeverFade 4y ago
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ShivShankaran 4y ago
  - jcranmer 4y ago
    > The Siberian pipeline was also sabotaged by the US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_pipeline_sabotage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_pipeline_sabotage I'm skeptical of that claim. It is sourced entirely from an autobiography, and there's no corroborating evidence of the explosion from any other source. > Russia has been pressuring Germany to re-open NordStrom 2 for weeks now. Maybe, but Germany hasn't been close to yielding to that pressure.

mercy_dude 4y ago

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662 https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662

hedora 4y ago

I wonder how it compares to the 1982 pipeline explosion the US caused in a similar situation: https://www.smh.com.au/world/cold-war-hotted-up-when-sabotaged-soviet-pipeline-went-off-with-a-bang-20040228-gdifyv.html https://www.smh.com.au/world/cold-war-hotted-up-when-sabotag... At the time, it was the largest non-nuclear, man-made explosion in history. (The grammar of the first few paragraphs of that story is odd, but the source it cites is solid, and it gets better after a paragraph or two -- couldn't find a better link.)