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California port truckers ‘drowning’ in supply chain inefficiencies
- melony 5y agoGood time for flexport to make a consolidation play and secure control of the entire supply chain vertical.
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- adtac 5y agoYou know how when there's a congestion in a road, the traffic moves backwards slowly? Example: https://i.imgur.com/7p43YV7.gifv https://i.imgur.com/7p43YV7.gifv Will this happen with the supply chain problems that we've had this year? For how long?
- halestock 5y agoYep, that is known as the bullwhip effect: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect
- spacemannoslen 5y agoNice, my Georgia tech OMSA classes have finally reached real world instance of hearing something I learned about. Thx
- quietbritishjim 5y agoThat looks quite different. According to the article, the key feature of the bullwhip effect is that it goes both too high and too low.
- marcosdumay 5y agoExactly. It's a very different phenomenon from group velocity. Both commonly happen after supply chain disruptions. Bullwhip effect happens over the entire chain, while group velocity happens on a single stage of it.
- the_mitsuhiko 5y agoThe supply chain situation is much worse because individual actors are trying to optimize for themselves for an advantage at the cost of everybody else.
- JoBrad 5y agoTragedy of the Supply Chain?
- whatshisface 5y agoIn contrast to the selflessness and charity of rush hour commuters?
- the_mitsuhiko 5y agoI don’t know how self aware rush hour commuters are about their situation. Also the animation linked does not involve decision making. Right now a lot of companies are aware of supply chain issues and counter acting them for instance by greater stockpiling which in turn worsens the situation for others.
- whatshisface 5y agoIf you're against stockpiling, then you're in favor of the zero inventory cost cutting practice that got us in to this mess to begin with.
- bfdm 5y agoYup, turned out that inventory isn't pure capital waste after all. It's an insurance policy, an investment in stability. Bring back inventory.
- mschuster91 5y agoAnd in ten years, when the pandemic has passed, the MBA beancounters and/or "activist investors" will ask the question "do we need stockpiles of inventory???" again. And then history will repeat itself - many years of profit, followed by a crisis of some kind and then we will have another "delivery crisis".
- ed_balls 5y agoThere is also a train congestion in Kazakhstan. A few articles mentioned end of summer 2022, but I guess this was assuming no extra disruptions.
- AtlasBarfed 5y agoWell, maybe we shouldn't make the supply chain so long. Shipping things 5000 miles should not be cheaper than making them closer to home. Although shipping is astonishingly efficient, a retroactive carbon tax (not just for the current emission, but one that doubles it for back-charges) should be instituted on shipping worldwide in bulk. That will incentivize local sourcing. It's not just for long-term global warming. We are a medium-scale disaster (small asteroid stike, supervolcano explosion, megatsunami) from worldwide starvation due to supply chain disruption. I'm really glad alternative energy is so competitive, because it is local generation, and not just in the local powerplant sense. Poor places actually are a lot more resilient to disruption because everyone has a cow in the backyard and a garden. Similarly home solar and storage are so much more disaster resilient. Perverse economic incentives aren't just on the liberal side. "Free market" economics with its unfunded externalities is another kind of perverse incentive that has led to these ridiculous rube goldberg supply chains.
- 14 5y agoI don’t agree with all you write but I will say I have been thinking about building a solar LED green house with battery pack to run it winter or at night. In summer just run it off the sun but as winter approaches fire up a LED grow light for extra light hours. Then I could cut my cost of food a lot but most importantly be resilient to supply chain disruptions.
- hattmall 5y agoI would really like to see some math / data on what amount of power / battery etc you need and what crops to grow and survive off of. Basically how much greenhouse space and electricity do you need per person and what would you be eating. We grow a seasonal garden, much larger than most people I know, about 3 acres and we don't keep tedious records or really optimize it but it seems like it would fall far short of being enough food to live off of.
- howLongHowLong 5y ago3 acres could definitely provide one with most enough to live on if one keeps animals, preserves surplus, and expands their definition of seasonal. "Four-Season Gardening" by Elliot Coleman, a great book on the subject, shows a green house strategy that involves no added energy (in Maine, no less). I imagine thoughtful addition of active control could improve output. The hardest part is growing enough protein, which is why livestock is sort of a necessity for subsistence living unless you live someplace with accessible and abundant fish or game. One past solution was collectively owned and worked acreage devoted to beans, milk or similar, though I suppose it could be argued that leads us back here, eventually, once someone gets the idea to sell the surplus of that. (It did once, already) TL;DR Check out "Four-season Gardening" by Elliot Coleman for interesting ideas on expanding your growing season without adding electricity
- mhb 5y agoMaybe I'm not understanding, but I don't see traffic moving backwards in that example.
- yelnatz 5y agoThe traffic isnt moving backwards but the traffic jam is.
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- ncallaway 5y agoThe wave of condensed cars is moving opposite of the direction of travel of the cars. The high density region of cars is moving backwards.
- picsao 5y agoIf a part cant take off cargo and the orders are stuck, the factory stops producing?
- dataflow 5y agoI think you mean the shockwave moves backwards, not the traffic.
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- Kye 5y agoThe confusion in replies is a great example of what happens when the forest and the trees get mixed up.
- zz865 5y agoThe real problem is too many people in Western USA buying too much stuff they dont need.
- bsder 5y agoSo where exactly, pray tell, is all the WalMart crap that is consumed by middle America and distributed from Bentonville, AR coming into the country from? I'll wait over here quietly while you figure out the answer.
- spodek 5y agoLike the jobs the book Bullshit Jobs referred to, I'd bet most of the cargo in these trucks is bullshit products that will end up in landfills within six months.
- arthurcolle 5y agoDavid Graeber, RIP
- vkou 5y agoI understand that this is an oft-repeated meme, but what are these mountains of products that go to the landfill in six months, and who has the money to buy them?
- nvader 5y agoFast fashion, costumes, holiday decorations and props, organizational solutions, non-heirloom[0] electronics. [0] not sure what the term of art here is, but flash drive, charger, cables, remotes, even monitors and TVs rather than designer record players, home entertainment systems etc
- anticensor 5y agoThe word you are looking for is obsoletable.
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- HenryKissinger 5y ago> "All we hear in the news is the lack of congestion on the waterside and we can confirm that, but we are drowning on the landside by long lines and staffing issues at the terminals,” Boston Dynamics has built droids capable of handling cargo.[1][2][3] [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iV_hB08Uns https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iV_hB08Uns [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7v8ZUq16F4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7v8ZUq16F4 [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkv-_LqTeQA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkv-_LqTeQA If humans are in short supply and these supply issues are causing companies to lose money, surely every business handling cargo from the ports will line up to buy some BD droids?
- WalterBright 5y agoThose aren't the droids we're looking for.
- lordofgibbons 5y agoI don't think there are any humans picking up and moving these containers by hand. Robots are already doing the physical moving from one transport type to another.
- cheese_van 5y agoAt the California ports experiencing the worst of being unable to fulfill high demand, the robotics space is intentionally diminished by union activity. Rotterdam stores, moves, and transfers with much greater efficiency with robotic assistance. However, I don't support injuring workers with tech efficiency advances - it's morally wrong. But I do wish tech and labor everywhere had better discussions on how to introduce efficiency while also, and more importantly, preserving gainful employment and creating better work experiences.
- 01100011 5y agoYou'd be surprised how strong the longshorman's union is. It's a cesspool of nepotism and corruption(at least in San Diego, where I used to be close to a family of them and got to hear the dirt). It would take a major economic catastrophe(no, not like the current one) to displace them, and you can bet there will be violence in return.
- rch 5y agoLong term thinking, but would more rail capacity help? It does seem like long haul trucking is overrepresented in our logistics chain.
- chrisseaton 5y agoI think the US already has a better than average rail freight system.
- 01100011 5y agoIt does, but that doesn't mean that the major west coast ports have adequate freight rail service. It seems to me the solution is to have a major rail artery which at least allows freight to be delivered to a distribution center farther inland(Ontario, Palm Springs, or somewhere east). That would free the truckers from dealing with LA freeway traffic. Another option would be a canal up to the Salton Sea. Obviously that's a much more major effort but it has nearly endless economic and ecological benefits.
- donarb 5y agoLA/Long Beach ports already have a dedicated rail corridor specifically for quickly sending rail traffic out of the LA basin and on to the midwest. Part of the problem is that rail yards in Chicago are clogged with trains that can't be unloaded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alameda_Corridor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alameda_Corridor
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- axiolite 5y ago> Another option would be a canal up to the Salton Sea. Obviously that's a much more major effort but it has nearly endless economic and ecological benefits. That would be an obscene undertaking... going a hundred miles THROUGH several mountain ranges. There would be no ecological benefit. Salton sea will still not have an outlet, so after a one-time dilution, the seas will continue to increase in salinity, endlessly. It needs a massive supply of FRESH water to try to dilute the salt down to acceptable levels. Sea water with salt will just worsen the problem, long-term. The economic benefits are marginal. You'll be limited to the number of vessels the canal can handle, the size of the port you can build in the desert, and you very quickly overwhelm the roads in the area. Any malfunction or damage to the canal would be devastating... the unstoppable flooding in the low desert and along the canal zone would be unprecedented.
- IronWolve 5y agoRoads are full, one of the issues I've noticed from living in seattle for decades, more parents are driving their kids to school instead of buses. Morning and afternoon traffic is jam packed with parents and kids, causing major delays for rush hour, just to reach the on/off ramps. Also, the park and rides are full too early, meaning people have to drive or get to work 1 hour or more early. Parking never kept up with all the new apartment buildings, the newer ones are multi levels, and are already mostly full. Public transit has failed to keep up with demand, meaning more cars on the road. Then the limited amount of highways, trucks are stuck in traffic for hours, sharing the road. Uber and Lyft isnt a fix for less cars on the road. Now compound that by the hundreds of issues along the supply chain, decades old port design, same methodology from the 1960s on loading/unloading at the ports, limited space at the ports/warehouses, day long waits for truckers at the port, inefficiency from start to finish. Some ideas, Have the ports move containers to a farther location for pick up, during non traffic times, 9pm to 5am. Have the National guard build some new depots outside of town, hopefully along highways. Optimize the ports, the containers are sitting too long in warehouses, and not enough cranes. The solution shouldn't be "ticket truckers" who cant fix the core issues.
- alexpotato 5y agoI remember reading years ago (pre Uber) that there should be more taxis in the New York City to help people get around. They quoted a professor who had, according to the article, the most accurate model of NYC traffic given a large number of variables e.g. number of commuters, taxis, buses, subway frequency etc. A key take away was the a taxi (or Uber/Lyft etc) is much WORSE for traffic than a commuter car. Commuters drive in, park, leave their car all day then leave. Taxis are constantly circling and looking for fares. IIRC the impact of a taxi was several multiples of the impact of a commuter on daily gridlock. Now, I love Uber/Lyft for all of the regular reasons e.g. allows people in under-served areas get transportation, senior citizens and the disabled with more access etc. The traffic impact, however, seems pretty substantial.
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- 1cvmask 5y agohttps://archive.md/iithw https://archive.md/iithw
- squabble 5y agoAmazon seems to be efficient. Maybe they should open a port.
- wrycoder 5y agoYeah, Bezos could just buy Houston?
- lotsofpulp 5y agoMight be wiser to buy something on the west coast if efficiency is the goal.
- wrycoder 5y agoYeah, it’s weird. I was watching a YouTube that showed how Amazon was building their own extra long containers and bringing them up the river in Houston on specially constructed container ships with integrated cranes for unloading/loading.
- bpodgursky 5y agoAnyone who could open a port free of longshoreman unions (aka able to automate) would be a step function above what we have. That's not easy to swing politically though.
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- njstraub608 5y agoThere’s a great podcast that explains the intricacies and roles within this section of the industry: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/craig-fuller-on-the-huge-challenge-of-getting-the/id1056200096?i=1000539981148 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/craig-fuller-on-the-hu...
- TheSpiceIsLife 5y agoThanks for sharing this, listening to the episode now and subscribed so will it out.
- ww520 5y agoFrom what I heard, the end points (retailers or warehouses) are out of spaces. There's no shelf space to store the incoming stuff. So they slow down the scheduling of trucks from the ports. The supply chain is so lean that there's no buffer space along the way. The ports end up as the buffering zone.
- hippich 5y agoWe are facing quite aggressive space limitation at FBA warehouses. And we are not alone... Meaning Amazon can't sell fast enough to free up warehouse space. I wonder if the pendulum moving to the other end, meaning we have too much stuff with significantly decreased consumption... For what it is worth, we are going to decrease order sizes for now.
- ralusek 5y agoIf that were the case, then why the consumer side shortages?...which are at least partly (although nowhere near the degree to which the fed and government would like us to believe) responsible for the price increases.
- hef19898 5y agoThat's one of the most under appreciated things about supply chains in general and inventory in particular. The fact that more inventory regularly does increase shortages. Among the worst offenders, within the industry, to not get that is production closely followed by (B2B) sales in my experience.
- pxue 5y ago> The president of a Southern California drayage company said the Lunar New Year, which starts Feb. 1, may be the recalibration the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach need to clear out the backlog as factories in China shut down for two weeks or more. > “The salvation I see is this is a time when we can hit the clock and we’ve got 30, 40, maybe 50 days to get the congestion out and reset the game board to zero,” the company executive, who didn’t want to be identified for fear of retaliation by terminal operators, told FreightWaves. That's one way to solve the problem.
- hef19898 5y agoI never thaught Chinese New wouod solve problems instead of creating them...
- aasasd 5y agoWell, by now Musk should come out with a plan to shoot containers straight from the factory to the warehouse.
- jiggawatts 5y agoYou joke, but self-driving electric trucks are precisely the type of thing that might be needed long term to meet demand…
- quakeguy 5y agoCurrent battery tech make E-trucks inefficient and expensive.
- koheripbal 5y agoAn automated rail system might work better.
- joshghent 5y agoKey word - "current". If people had used that same line of reasoning for computers, we wouldn't have the devices we take for granted today. Things start expensive, and inefficient. Then we innovate and things get cheap and reliable.
- sudosysgen 5y agoYeah but we already have a solution available right now that works well. It's called trains. So why wait for battery tech to improve?
- hi5eyes 5y agousg subsidized railguns for logistics
- tomrod 5y agoSounds like we need experts in mechanism design to work out the greedy-agent backlogs. Clear the bureaucracy to make it happen!