35 ms·
US raises ‘deep concerns’ over WHO report on Covid’s Wuhan origins
- dm319 6y agoThis is worth a read: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
- godelmachine 6y ago>>*Although the evidence shows that SARS- CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here.* From the conclusion section
- 2bitencryption 6y agomy understanding of primitive/early vaccines is this: 1. take a virus that is highly adapted to humans, and inject it in another animal (like a rabbit) 2. the virus will cause a very low-grade infection in the rabbit, since the virus is adapted to humans, not rabbits - but it will still be a non-zero level of effectiveness 3. at the peak level of the rabbit's low-grade infection, the mutants of the virus that are more effective against rabbits will be expressed more than any others, and replicate themselves more than any other mutant 4. capture these variants from the rabbit, and inject them into another rabbit. 5. step 3 and 4 repeat as the virus becomes less human-specific and more rabbit-specific 6. if all goes well, you will have transformed the human-effective virus into a rabbit-effective virus. But the virus still has enough of the same characteristics that it will provoke an immune response in humans that will also protect against the human-specific variant I imagine if you wanted to do the opposite, and craft a virus that is more effective against humans instead of less, you would simply follow the steps in reverse. Since these steps are so simple, and require no direct modification of the genetic material (you simply encourage it to drift in a certain direction) it seems like it would be hard to tell which viruses were manipulated in this way.
- mgamache 6y agoThis was from early last year and really focuses on Pangolins which have been downgraded as a zoonotic source. Serial Passage is the most likely source (as all sources are low probability).
- f430 6y agoThe thing is they claimed it originated from the seafood market yet couple blocks across the street there was a BS4 bio lab literally working with the materials. It's amazing so many people will just take CCP's narrative at face value, there are still many that think it came from the seafood market. Nature has lied to protect the CCP before: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/world/asia/china-springer-nature-censorship.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/world/asia/china-springer...
- mgamache 6y agoIn the first few weeks the main source of info was the CCP and well known virologists. Both have conflicts of interest.
- agumonkey 6y agoI don't know what happened obviously, and I'm not really wishing for any theory to win (lab or nature). But I've read Chinese virology labs were made in partnership with France and french experts/teachers said many safety protocols were not fully applied.
- ZoomerCretin 6y ago>Nature has lied to protect the CCP before: >https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/world/asia/china-springer-nature-censorship.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/world/asia/china-springer... Your article does not support your claim. "One of the world’s largest academic publishers was criticized on Wednesday for bowing to pressure from the Chinese government to block access to hundreds of articles on its Chinese website."
- f430 6y agoWe simply don't know the author's connection to the CCP. Why not share that publicly as to add credibility to their claims? Not the first time Nature was caught covering for the CCP: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/world/asia/china-springer-nature-censorship.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/world/asia/china-springer... Why are all the criticisms of CCP downvoted and flagged on HN?
- ZoomerCretin 6y agoThis is supposed to be a scientifically-literate forum. Ad hominem dismissal of good data/analysis because it could come from a source you've been taught to dislike isn't conducive to good discussion. If you're curious about the authors' links, they are in the article you didn't read.
- oasisbob 6y agoConspiracy theories regarding genetically engineered viruses don't do well here.
- mgamache 6y agoYou should understand what Serial Passage and Gain of Function is. It's using natural selection in a lab and not easily detected. It was also a type of research that was being done at that lab. The paper addresses Serial Passage in the last part.
- vixen99 6y agoMuch work has been done on genetically engineering viruses and that includes coronoviruses. We certainly know very well how to do it for one purpose or another. This is a fact not a theory. Currently it's impossible to say Covid-19 resulted, maybe in part, from this activity or not. Terrible not to know something for a fact but that's how it is. Call a particular view a conspiracy theory if you like but that's just rhetoric and takes us not a step further towards a definitive answer.
- mc32 6y agoBeside the danger of adding function to an infectious virus, the biggest danger is the complete politicization of the virus. The WHO has changed their tune back and forth, often vehemently with little to back up its position. In that light the US should consider withdrawing completely from this body.
- mgamache 6y agoThe US just rejoined after Biden reversed Trumps withdrawal.
- mgamache 6y agoHere's one article about the Who reversal: "The scientific community applauded President Joe Biden's decision to rejoin the World Health Organization and other global efforts designed to stop and prevent COVID-19." https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/01/22/scientists-applaud-biden-decision-rejoin-world-health-organization/4243377001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/01/22/scient...
- bpodgursky 6y agoHN is reflexive with downvotes. It's not personal. A response of "Trump did thing, Biden undid thing" after a comment of "US should do thing" can be interpreted as support of Trump and criticism of Biden. This is not a good thing to be true. Thus, it is downvoted.
- mgamache 6y agoyou're right... I updated the post to remove the comment.
- addicted 6y agoThe WHO is not an organization with a military or the power to enforce anything. It’s completely at the mercy of the member states to pressure each other to allow it to do its job. The reality is that it was up to the member states to pressure China in early 2020 to release the information they should have shared. And as the only member state as large or larger than China, this was the US’s job. At the time, however, the Trump administration was entirely focused on closing a trade deal with China that Trump could use in his election campaign. Which is why the US said nothing which prevented the WHO from getting the support they needed to investigate the origins of the pandemic. For the first few months the US, and especially Trump, was basically going on about how well Xi Jinping was handling everything.
- mgamache 6y agoRelated: China refused to provide WHO team with raw data on early COVID cases, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-china/china-refused-to-provide-who-team-with-raw-data-on-early-covid-cases-team-member-says-idUSKBN2AD090 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-ch...
- f430 6y agoIf the CCP is innocent why not prove it to the world by sharing their data? Why hide things?
- mgamache 6y agoWell, lets say they don't know, but there's a chance of a lab leak. Why take the chance when you can use FUD to confuse the world and remove the downside risk (which is very large).
- loveistheanswer 6y agoPerhaps they did not account for a potential Streissand Effect
- buran77 6y agoWhile Chinese authorities may very well be to blame for this, your reasoning is flawed. Governments hide a lot of things for a lot of reasons, whether nefarious or not, especially when it comes to sharing with foreign powers. The "argument" that "if you've got nothing to hide then you have nothing to worry about" is is just as worthless when promoting encryption backdoors as it is now.
- katbyte 6y agoI’m not sure you can compare the two, “why are you encrypting your data/communication” is very different then “why are you not sharing the early virus samples”
- renewiltord 6y agoThe WHO is a useless organization. For political reasons, it will be necessary to engage, but hopefully US authorities will not treat it as an information source. The US should use its own primary sources in future to evaluate disease spread. China will lie to the WHO and the WHO will protect it. But to know the truth, we should use our modern equivalents of Key Hole. There is no truth but that which you have examined yourself.
- f430 6y ago> China will lie to the WHO and the WHO will protect it. No idea why you are being downvoted for speaking the truth.
- renewiltord 6y agoThanks. Site guidelines discourage comments like yours but I was definitely rapidly getting downvoted till you said something. Interesting stuff. I don't think anything I said about the WHO is particularly controversial considering the last year and their disinformation campaign. Anyway, bodies like the WHO can't be effective information sources because you get in trouble if a novel contagious disease started in your country. It has to lead to increased money flow to the diseased site at disease onset and decreased money flow to sites likely to risk creating novel disease. That is, market pandemic bonds structured on a regional basis will probably yield a better indicator than the WHO.
- addicted 6y agoYou mean primary sources like the program that had US scientists embedded in Chinese laboratories that Trump dismantled in 2019? Also, you clearly don’t understand what the WHO does and how critical it has been in the reduction and even eradication of disease spread across the world over decades. Further, the WHO, much like most multilateral organizations is dependent on its member states for strength. When the most powerful member state voluntarily and unilaterally chose to disengage over the past half decade, it shouldn’t be surprised that the 2nd most powerful member state is calling the shots.
- 6y ago
- f430 6y agoIf the CCP have nothing to hide then why do they do everything they possibly can to hide things from the rest of the world?
- OminousWeapons 6y agoPolitics. China is keen to not have the blame for COVID pinned on them. Accepting the blame makes Xi look weak and inept. It also opens up the door for countries to demand reparations. Meanwhile, every other country (especially the US) is eager to manufacture a narrative in which China eats the full blame for this because it absolves their politicians of responsibility for their complete mismanagement of the crisis. It sounds a lot better to say "we had a bioweapon unleashed against us and there was nothing we could do" than to say "this is just like the last 10 times we had a pandemic and we still botched our responses".
- jeswin 6y agoThe domestic narrative in China is that the virus is of foreign origin, with the CCP press strongly suggesting that it's of US origin - eg:[1]. The truth probably is that they know it originated (from animals) in China, and don't want the WHO to officially reach that conclusion. That's not particularly damaging to most countries, but in a communist country with tightly controlled information flow, the citizenry isn't shown a government making mistakes. 1: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1183658.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1183658.shtml
- pessimizer 6y agoSurveillance and covert activity launched from the US and Western Europe is not done openly. If a US government agency discovered a US origin for covid-19 tomorrow, do you seriously think you'd hear about it, or that it would ever be reported in a mainstream media outlet? If it escaped from a US lab, they knew it at the time, and had no way of stopping domestic spread, do you think that US agencies would be above covertly also releasing it in Wuhan as cover, and getting Chinese assets to report about suspicious deaths on social media? China is secretive about important things, and the West is secretive about important things. To be clear, these scenarios are entirely and spontaneously made up, but they're also entirely possible, and we've fallen into the trap of believing any old bullshit about China simply because it's possible, and reconciling our spreading it and our obvious ignorance with racist "inscrutable Chinese" tropes. The reason we don't know more about China is not because they're quiet, the reason we don't know about China is because we ban and censor media coming from China (just as they do to us, but moreso.) Somehow it's become mainstream to believe that the public shouldn't know what the Chinese government thinks (or the Russian government, or the Iranian government) and that it's better to rely on rumor and retired generals.
- rossdavidh 6y agoSo, perhaps there is a valid reason for China to refuse to give the raw data on early COVID-19 victims to the WHO, but I have to say, as a reader who's never been particularly impressed by the possibility of it being lab-created, I have to say this is not a good look for China.
- loveistheanswer 6y ago>as a reader who's never been particularly impressed by the possibility of it being lab-created It need not be "lab-created". Most samples are taken from the wild, and then has its evolution stimulated for research.
- rossdavidh 6y agoTrue, I should have said that differently, something more like "introduced to humanity from a lab sample". Important distinction, not least because way more likely to be possible given current technology. Valid point.
- musicale 6y agoIt doesn't have to be lab-created if you're simply bitten by a bat. Does anyone know whether this story (including video and photos is credible? https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4102619 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4102619
- zug_zug 6y agoCool, glad both sides of the aisle are willing to consider all possible origins. It shouldn't be a political statement to want the most accurate answer to a health-question, and maybe it won't have to be anymore.
- throwawaysea 6y agoFrom https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00375-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00375-7 > Dwyer says that the team didn’t see anything during its visits to suggest a lab accident. “Now, whether we were shown everything? You can never know. The group wasn’t designed to go and do a forensic examination of lab practice.” From https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/world/asia/china-who-wuhan-covid.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/world/asia/china-who-wuha... > Even in the best of circumstances, a full inquiry could take months, if not longer. The team must also navigate attempts by China to politicize the inquiry. And yet a few days ago the WHO pushed out a hasty judgment that it was very unlikely the virus leaked from the lab. And in the last day they’ve already started backtracking after intense skepticism from the world - see https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-12/who-backs-away-from-outright-rejection-of-virus-lab-leak-theory https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-12/who-backs... titled “ WHO Backs Away From Outright Rejection of Virus Lab-Leak Theory”. It also seems that now the virus may have been reported even earlier than we thought. From https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/world/asia/china-world-health-organization-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/world/asia/china-world-he...: > The Chinese scientists also acknowledged they had discovered that 92 people were hospitalized in Wuhan as early as October 2019 with symptoms such as fever and coughing. The Chinese experts said they had found no trace of Covid-19 in those people, but the tests were incomplete. The W.H.O. team members said more research was needed. Between the CCP’s early suppression of journalism and social media reporting on the virus, the fact that Taiwan was the first to warn the world, China’s repeated denials and delays in letting an outside team to visit the site, and their purge of all the coronavirus studies originating from this lab (https://www.the-sun.com/news/2113876/covid-cover-up-china-wuhan-studies-batwoman-virologist/ https://www.the-sun.com/news/2113876/covid-cover-up-china-wu...), there is very little reason to trust the claim that a lab leak can be ruled out. If anything it only seems more likely that a massive coverup is in progress, and the WHO is the willing mouthpiece for it.
- endisneigh 6y agoForgive my ignorance but even if it was lab created, so what? I don’t really understand why it matters or not. Didn’t the entire world basically have a nearly 3 month heads up on this either way?
- jeswin 6y agoThat depends. Most countries have ratified the biological weapons treaty. If proven to be lab created, the onus will be on them/whoever to prove that this was not part of a weaponization effort. Not to mention, instant loss of goodwill across the world. Personally, I think the idea of this being lab created by China is far fetched.
- phyalow 6y agoI used to think it was far fetched too, however applying Occams Razor and taking a read of this incredibly well researched article swayed me https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-esca... it would be worth your time.
- enchiridion 6y agoWell that was a very long read. Yep I agree, very little doubt it escaped from a lab. The arrogance of the corona virus researchers is astounding.
- ern 6y agoI suspect that it’s simpler than that. Having it accidentally leak out of a lab facility where it was being studied for legitimate scientific reasons would still be humiliating, and devastating to Chin’s soft-power.
- onethought 6y agoEven if it was lab leaked... every country studies viruses it's a HUGE jump to conclude it was a weaponisation effort... The facility is next to one of their largest research universities NOT near its military research facilities. Would China really do top secret illegal bio-weapons research in a lab essentially open to the public?
- esja 6y agoI am yet to see a single piece of evidence which rules out the lab leak hypothesis. Meanwhile the circumstantial evidence in favour of that hypothesis (including China’s behaviour) continues to pile up. We may never discover the truth, but I really hope we do.
- kjakm 6y ago>> Meanwhile the circumstantial evidence in favour of that hypothesis (including China’s behaviour) continues to pile up. What circumstantial evidence?
- tripletao 6y agoAlina Chan's WSJ article is a decent popular summary, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-needs-a-real-investigation-into-the-origins-of-covid-19-11610728316 https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-needs-a-real-investig... https://archive.is/R6kwN https://archive.is/R6kwN There's also been a string of academic preprints and articles, like https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2102/2102.03910.pdf https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2102/2102.03910.pdf The authors tend to be kind of fringe, not surprisingly given the reputational cost (and given that if a lab origin is ever confirmed, many of the techniques that top researchers have spent their lives mastering will probably become illegal). A lot of very senior virologists are on the record as open to the possibility of a lab escape, though, for example: > Baric said he still thought the virus came from bats in southern China, perhaps directly, or possibly via an intermediate host, although the smuggled pangolins, in his view, were a red herring. The disease evolved in humans over time without being noticed, he suspected, becoming gradually more infectious, and eventually a person carried it to Wuhan “and the pandemic took off.” Then he said, “Can you rule out a laboratory escape? The answer in this case is probably not.” https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-esca... I don't recommend that article in general; the author uses his talents as a novelist to paint a more vivid picture than I believe the evidence justifies. I do trust him to faithfully print the quote, though.
- SiempreViernes 6y ago
- throwaway4good 6y agoBoo. The Americans need to shut up or actual provide evidence for their outrageous claim that the virus escaped from a lab.
- jchook 6y agoI've seen papers from several scientists who believe that SARS-CoV-2 had laboratory origins. You can find them on Google Scholar or similar search engines, but you cannot post them to HN or Twitter because they get instantly censored. The evidence against laboratory origins seems flimsy to me as well. The most cited paper says because the virus infects humans suboptimally it must not be lab grown in human cells. Also they examined the "only" 3 relevant features of the virus and determined they evolved naturally from other SARS strains. Not exactly convincing.
- read_if_gay_ 6y ago> You can find them on Google Scholar or similar search engines, but you cannot post them to HN or Twitter because they get instantly censored. That seems crazy. Can you give me a pointer on what to search for?
- dempseye 6y agoI don't know either way, but the claim that the virus escaped from a lab is hardly outrageous. It is well within the sphere of possibilities that are worth examining. Lab leaks have happened before.
- pessimizer 6y agoWhy would you think that we would have to do that? It's only people who are being threatened that have to talk their way out of it. It's not only easy to casually threaten China, it's required to avoid charges of being a secret agent sent to destroy American unity.
- sjg007 6y agoIf it was lab created independent scientists would be able to figure it out and there would be evidence that it was. But it looks like there is not: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 Now maybe the virus mutated from those initial 174 cases but that's unlikely. China does have a narrative that covid19 reinfections are coming from imported frozen foods though so I'm not sure why they are pushing that angle. It's probably an economic one and to save face. But maybe it's real.. if it is we are screwed.
- mgamache 6y agoFirstly that was in March. Secondly it discounts the serial passage research which leaves little genetic evidence. All the potential sources are unlikely, so why discount a lab accident?
- jchook 6y agoI don't feel convinced by the argument. Maybe someone can help me understand better. - Virus infects human ACE2 suboptimally, therefore it's not lab grown. Why? Because a virus engineer is always going for maximizing spread rate? Seems plausible that less-than-ideal infection rates of humans could be a feature rather than a bug. - A polybasic clevage site was not seen in SARS-CoV... but it's function is not known. Okay? - The virus backbone was "0day" and not previously known to researchers. Seems like a feature that a covert bio warfare lab would desire. The rest of the speculation seems to ride on the assumption that the virus originated in China (despite evidence showing otherwise[1][2]), and their discovery seems biased toward any data to support that conclusion. 1. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472 https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid... 2. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00716-2 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00716-2
- loveistheanswer 6y ago>Why? Because a virus engineer is always going for maximizing spread rate? Seems plausible that less-than-ideal infection rates of humans could be a feature rather than a bug. You are correct. There is both gain of function and loss of function happening in these types of experiments. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK285579/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK285579/
- jchook 6y agoRelated: Scientists found SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in US blood samples taken from December 2019 to January 2020 https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472 https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid... Edit: removed incorrect conclusion
- mgamache 6y agoThat's not what is suggests: "These findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may have been introduced into the United States prior to January 19, 2020." Without Chinese data the origin will remain a mystery.
- kergonath 6y agoStudies have shown that it was circulating in France back in November 2019. Not saying it originated there, there’s no indication of that, but there is a possibility that it had already been spreading for some time before December 2019.
- Terretta 6y agoThe “detected in Barcelona sewer water in March 2019” stories from June 2020 didn’t seem to go anywhere either. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science-idUSKBN23X2HQ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-... Kept searching for followups, didn’t see anything till this: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720352797 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896972... That’s from 21 January 2021 and says: “So far unpublished data, analysing retained wastewater samples from Barcelona, Spain, taken in March 2019 showed positive RT-qPCR results for SARS-CoV-2 (Chavarria-Miró et al., 2020). The authors conclude that the virus was introduced to the Barcelona population due to global travel and remained undetected.” So as of then, still unpublished.
- kergonath 6y agoYeah what I have seen about the Barcelona samples was not very convincing at the time, but then I am not an epidemiologist and I’d be happy to read more. The French study has just been published last week [0]. It is based on a vast cohort study in which serum samples were collected regularly. They tested older samples and found some anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The article also mentions an Italian study with similar results [1]. [0] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00716-2 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00716-2 [1] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0300891620974755 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0300891620974755
- ttz 6y agoFirst gen Chinese, grew up in NA. Have contact with relatives "on the ground". My own experience: Don't ever trust the Chinese government on issues that could potentially involve the reputation of the party. Note that I'm not saying don't trust what CCP says, ever (sometimes they actually do good things) - just not on issues that involve anything to do with how the world might perceive them. Which is exactly what this issue is about. That's not to say we have compelling evidence that this was a lab virus, either. I think, for me, it's a, "we don't know, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if it was a lab virus".
- throwaway54095 6y agoIt's crazy that at this point we still keep with this delusion. Of course this is a lab virus. This info is getting old: https://project-evidence.github.io/ https://project-evidence.github.io/ https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-origins-genome-analysis-suggests-two-viruses-may-have-combined-134059 https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-origins-genome-analy... Who was really behind this, and the whole history of it, is something surely we won't know for know. "When war is declared, truth is the first casualty"
- AshWolfy 6y agoa lot of this is just really bad, like just off the top of my head 96 percent related genetics is not very much, thats the same similarity between humans and monkeys
- GauntletWizard 6y ago96% of human vs monkey DNA similarly is not a lot, because most of that DNA is shared throughout all of the animal kingdom. Since human DNA is close to a billion codons long, the remaining 4% is still tens of millions of codons. COVID-19 is ~30,000 base pairs long (10,000) codons. The 4% difference is 400 codons. That's not a lot. There are many singular proteins longer than that. Is that proof? No, the same way gravity is just a theory.
- 6y ago
- jjd33 6y agoUS also praises Saudi and Israeli rule of law and democratic institutions. North Korea seems a more trustworthy source of news than US nowdays.
- robomartin 6y ago> echoing concerns raised by the administration of former President Donald Trump, who also moved to quit the WHO over the issue This is what gets me in politics: For all the well-deserved vilification Trump was subjected to, it seems that every day we are discovering some of the important policies and opinions they issued were right on point. The dichotomy, it seems, is one of vilification due to his often insolent and down-right ignorant public style and presence rather than anything I would characterize as substantive. I have worked with people like that. People with sometimes deep personality and social issues who do great work and excel professionally. To take it in another direction, back when I was actively mentoring high school FRC teams we got all kinds of kids. There were kids on the Autism spectrum as well as Asperger's. I can say that every single one of them was superb in their team participation once I learned how to work with them and, above all, accept that they didn't sound or behave like the rest. I am not making a parallel between Trump and these conditions. Just saying that it is sometimes important to focus on substance rather than theater. Case in point: I just got my second COVID vaccine yesterday. Shaking and feeling like crap as I type this (it will last a few hours). When Trump said vaccines were coming by the end of the year everyone laughed at him. It was brutal. I remember watching CNN as they tore him to pieces for daring to "not use science" and raising our hopes in such ignorant ways. Well, we are currently vaccinating at a rate of approximately 1.5 million people per day and this will go up. Did Biden do this? Look, I am in manufacturing. Have been my entire life. You don't produce 1.5 million per day of anything, distribute and administer it with some sort of a "then a miracle occurs" approach. Biden has only been in office a few days. There is absolutely no way he could have any material impact on vaccine delivery and administration during that time. These things have to be planned and well-executed for months. Which means I got my vaccine (and 1.5 million people are getting their vaccines) because of the organization and planning the Trump administration created and drove, likely back to March/April of last year. I'd be interested in hearing from anyone --WITH MANUFACTURING EXPERIENCE-- who thinks you can instantly go from 100K per day to 1.5 million per day just because there's a new boss in town. I mean, remember that we couldn't even produce masks and PPE at scale in this country (or nearly any other country). In this sense this should have been a massive wakeup call to the world, not just the US. This means that Biden's "100 million in 100 days" will be achieved and exceeded --by Trump-- so long as people go get vaccinated. And, without a doubt, Biden will take credit for 100% of it. This is what I hate about politics. There are other issues for which he was vilified that will turn out to have been right non point. I won't dive into the details here. Some of these include: - The Paris climate accord (seriously, google the document, read it and tell me how it will save the world...it's nonsense...expensive nonsense) - Tariffs on steel and aluminum. I am doing an aircraft design project right now. I can buy US-made aluminum for roughly 25% less than the cost of steel. That has never been the case in my life. Of course, everyone in the metals industry wants Biden to keep the tariffs in place. May I remind you Trump was called "racist" and all kinds of other things for enacting this? - The pipeline. Aside from the fact that tens of thousands of jobs will be lost (a good friend of mine lost his and is facing having to sell his house to survive). Everything around you requires oil. It doesn't matter if it is made from plastics or not. You don't think aluminum and steel require oil for manufacturing and more? Do some research. The US achieved net exporter status during Trump's years. That will surely go away. Also, cost of goods (not just gasoline) was kept under check because we controlled oil. Not any more. A friend in Arizona tells me gasoline prices have doubled there. I regularly ship large aerospace components in the thousands of pounds. Freight prices are being impacted by this (my opinion) stupid move. Yes, we all want everything clean. However, there's a fine line between wishing something and being delusional about how and when it can be achieved. Anyhow, I'll stop here. There's more, but I need to go to the couch and shake-off the vaccine side effects for a few hours. If you disagree with the above, be honest enough to do the research before forming an opinion. Above all, if you do not have operational experience running a business, you need to understand that you are not equipped to understand the many dynamics at play here. Simple example: If gas prices explode companies are going to have to raise pay for their workers. Sounds good until you understand at least two things. First, the worker doesn't get to use that raise, it goes towards paying for oil. Second, that money could have been used to hire more people and create jobs. In fact, higher oil prices could destroy jobs in areas one might not suspect. No, everyone isn't going to go buy electric cars and trucks. Get over it. This will take a long time. The infrastructure isn't ready. FYI: Fixing climate change by 2030/2050/2100? Delusional. We can't do it. And yet we are going to burn resources promoting pure bullshit instead of talking about how to adapt. Politics sucks. I want honest exchange of ideas judged by their merit, not through a political lens.
- mgamache 6y agoIf anyone is tempted to associate 'lab leak' with xenophobia or anti-Chinese sentiment, please remember the WIV lab was in partnership with the U.S. NIH (National Institutes of Health). https://www.biospace.com/article/1nih-awards-ecohealth-alliance-7-5-million-grant-despite-political-furor/ https://www.biospace.com/article/1nih-awards-ecohealth-allia...
- loveistheanswer 6y agoAlso noteworthy is Dr. Fauci has been a long time proponent and sponsor of gain of function experiments as head of the NIAID, the infectious diseases arm of the NIH.[1] After a few different US lab leaks involving anthrax, smallpox, and avian flu in 2014 the Obama administration put a ban on the fuding of gain of function research.[2] The ban was eventually overturned in 2018.[3] [1]https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-flu-virus-risk-worth-taking/2011/12/30/gIQAM9sNRP_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-flu-virus-risk-wor... [2]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-anthrax-labs-analysis/how-to-fix-u-s-biosecurity-leaks-close-some-labs-idUSKBN0FJ0BC20140714 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-anthrax-labs-analysis... [3]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(18)30006-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
- justnotworthit 6y agoI don't get why supporters of GoF experiments with CoV in Wuhan aren't shouting from the rooftops that (1) They were right to predict the danger of a CoV originating from that area of the world and that (2) their research, years in the making, is thankfully (despite opposition's cries of danger) here to protect us. Instead, I can't find anything about the latest years of their research.
- mgamache 6y agogood point. the silence is deafening. They should be lobbying for more money...
- loveistheanswer 6y ago
- tebuevd 6y ago"Deep concerns" over Navalny's poisoning. "Deep concerns" over Navalny's imprisonment. "Deep concerns" over the coup in Myanmar. And now "deep concerns" over China refusing to provide data to the WHO.
- hereforphone 6y ago"Deep concerns" don't change anything.
- odyssey7 6y agoThe administration is making its first steps toward building the relationships that it wants. Signaling expectations is fine for that.
- underseacables 6y agoIt will take generations before China will recover from the Wuhan virus outbreak. However it happened, because of the CCP suppressing facts, people, and information, the harm to any credibility the Chinese government had is gone for some time. This could have been the China century, but for generations there will always be that doubt.
- lrem 6y agoDoesn't China need relatively the least recovery from this?
- underseacables 6y agoI can’t answer that question, because there is no dependable, verifiable factual data, On Chinese recovery whatsoever. It has already been established that nothing can be trusted coming from the government, and since the news is owned by the government, and only broadcast with the government approves, absolutely everything that comes out of China should be taken with a grain of salt. The only thing that can be ascertained is observational,
- foolmeonce 6y agoI think the WHO did a fine job of writing it up. The US motive for proving China is at fault is largely political diversion from the US' mishandling, which would be mishandling no matter what origin. That China blocked the Who's efforts and the WHO disclosed this is more relevant to future health policy than where this particular outbreak started. (Do we really want the public health system to tune to this specific scenario?)
- zepto 6y ago> The US motive for proving China is at fault is largely political diversion from the US' mishandling, which would be mishandling no matter what origin. Whether this is motivation is true or not has nothing to do with whether the WHO report reflects reality.
- foolmeonce 6y agoThe WHO disclosed they were blocked. You can infer a bayesian for a lab release of this specific virus. Now what does that change about the next pandemic?
- zepto 6y agoThe lab leak is not the only hypothesis the CCP may be seeking to avoid. What they knew and how early they knew it is at least as significant.
- foolmeonce 6y agoSo the fact that China didn't cooperate should affect future health policy? edit- make China/cooperate more explicit.
- zepto 6y agoOf course - if China knew more, earlier, wouldn’t you say knowing this should affect policy in future?
- tripletao 6y agoI don't know whether SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a lab. But if it did, then not only is it probably not the first lab-origin pandemic, but it's also not the first time the WHO initially excluded that possibility. The 1977 Russian Flu pandemic was genetically near-identical to a strain from 1950, without the expected mutations that should have appeared after 27 years of undetected circulation among humans or animals. It's been widely suspected in mainstream literature to have escaped from a research or vaccine manufacturing accident, to the point that the NEJM casually wrote: > The reemergence was probably an accidental release from a laboratory source in the setting of waning population immunity to H1 and N1 antigens https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra0904322 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra0904322 But at the time, the WHO said: > Laboratory contamination can be excluded because the laboratories concerned either had never kept H1N1 virus or had not worked with it for a long time. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2395678/pdf/bullwho00443-0095.pdf https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2395678/pdf/bul... And it's absolutely bizarre to me that people are asking why the origin even matters. After thousands of people died in Bhopal, did it matter whether better chemical safety standards could have prevented that? So with millions dead now, how could you possibly not wonder whether our current standards for the sampling and manipulation of poorly-understood pandemic-candidate viruses are adequate?
- mr_toad 6y ago> how could you possibly not wonder whether our current standards for the sampling and manipulation of poorly-understood pandemic-candidate viruses are adequate? Wait are we looking to improve and make sure that this doesn’t happen again, or do we just want someone to blame so we can continue to do nothing?
- option 6y agoBoth. We need to improve and, if anyone identified by investigation, held them responsible.
- blackrock 6y agoThe western world just wants to find an excuse to blame the Chinese, so that they can fulfill their wet dreams of invading China, and starting world war 3 with them. They were even demanding reparations too! If the Chinese didn’t have ICBM nukes to defend themselves, then you can bet that the western nations would’ve mounted a multi-country alliance to attack China by now. Read up Jack London’s The Unparalled Invasion from 1910. The Grand Master Plan is all laid out right there for you. It’s disgusting. You’ll want to throw up after you read it. But yet, this is how the white people of the western world sees China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Unparalleled_Invasion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Unparalleled_Invasion
- Fricken 6y agoWhat's weird is that a number of WHO investigation team members a week ago said China was very transparent, cooperative and helpful. Some have tweeted against the NYT who spun the WHO team's accounts into anti-China propaganda. https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/1360551108565999619 https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/13605511085659... https://mobile.twitter.com/TheaKFischer/status/1360590441817772034 https://mobile.twitter.com/TheaKFischer/status/1360590441817...
- bigpumpkin 6y agoWould love to hear more from Thea Fischer, who the WSJ quotes extensively.
- sn41 6y agoI don't know what is true and what is not, and am not criticizing any country. But it would be unwise for international missions to criticize any host country when its members are vulnerable - though not exactly the same, similar stances are taken by Red Cross. https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/other/57jncv.htm https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/resources/documents/article/othe...
- wk_end 6y agoPeter Daszak isn't impartial, and quite frankly his presence on the team alone makes its conclusions suspect. From this [1] excellent investigation into the subject from New York Magazine: > Peter Daszak, is a zoologist and bat-virus sample collector and the head of a New York nonprofit called EcoHealth Alliance — a group that [...] has channeled money from the National Institutes of Health to Shi Zhengli’s laboratory in Wuhan, allowing the lab to carry on recombinant research into diseases of bats and humans. > [...] > Daszak, for his part, seems to have viewed his bat quests as part of an epic, quasi-religious death match. In a paper from 2008, Daszak and a co-author described Bruegel’s painting The Fall of the Rebel Angels and compared it to the contemporary human biological condition. The fallen angels could be seen as pathogenic organisms that had descended “through an evolutionary (not spiritual) pathway that takes them to a netherworld where they can feed only on our genes, our cells, our flesh,” Daszak wrote. “Will we succumb to the multitudinous horde? Are we to be cast downward into chthonic chaos represented here by the heaped up gibbering phantasmagory against which we rail and struggle?” There's much more in there; it's clear that he's good friends and business partners with the WIV and it would be deeply his interest to suppress any consideration of the lab-escape hypothesis. [1] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-esca...
- prof-dr-ir 6y agoI, for one, would be interested in reading the actual report before deciding on whether to share any concerns about it. Unfortunately this is not yet possible because, well, the WHO scientists are still working on it.
- bluepirate 6y agoUm I shared analysis 15 days ago from a doctor who did an in-depth analysis and determined it to be from a lab. My post got one comment. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25965751 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25965751
- herpderperator 6y agoFrom the site: Caution: Potentially Misleading Contents Substantial peer feedback has been received that this record does not follow the norms of scientific rigour or balance, and thus the main claims may not stand the test of scientific scrutiny.
- markdown 6y agoMy father watched a video on youtube from such a doctor, and now not only thinks COVID is a hoax, but that so is HIV. The PCR Pandemic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LToSnpz8A4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LToSnpz8A4 Fuck these lone doctors and fuck Youtube for spreading their unfounded theories through the general population, putting millions of lives at risk.
- adolph 6y agoTests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk — akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left, Dr. Mina said. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testin...
- bluepirate 6y agoThe author is CEO of ATOS Therapeutics. He has invented seven FDA-approved pharmaceuticals which have helped over 80 million people. He has been cities over 9,000 in various works. I heard his company's breast cancer treatment had a major win last week - phase 2 so successful that it's being halted and moved immediately to phase 3. I don't think it's fair to put his work in the YouTube loon bucket.
- gfodor 6y agoIf this wasn’t from the lab, or a bad actor set it up to look like it was, to me it’s enough of a coincidence to basically conclude we live in a simulation.
- amelius 6y agoRunning on a computer without anti-virus software?
- throwitaway1235 6y agoWhat are we to make of the National Cancer Institute study that found Covid-19 in Italy as early as September 2019? https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-timing/researchers-find-coronavirus-was-circulating-in-italy-earlier-than-thought-idUSKBN27W1J2 https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-tim...
- Wolfenstein98k 6y agoWHO confirmed it was in China months before its confirmation in December.
- elchief 6y agoWhere was the NSA in all this? Shouldn't they have all communications, traffic data, location data on everyone in Wuhan?
- coldtea 6y agoIsn't it well established by now that Covid-19 was present in samples taken in Europe and elsewhere way before Wuhan incidents? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science-idUSKBN23X2HQ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-...
- j0ba 6y agoIn science, a single test of a single sample is a galaxy away from "well established."
- coldtea 6y agoIf it was a single study, yes: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/15/coronavirus-emerged-in-italy-earlier-than-thought-study-shows.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/15/coronavirus-emerged-in-italy... https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/12/01/study-suggests-covid-19-was-in-the-us-weeks-earlier-than-thought-before-first-public-cases-in-china/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/12/01/study-sug...
- mmmrtl 6y agoIt's bizarre that Reuters thought that this preprint was fit to report on. 8 months later, it still hasn't passed peer review. If a Mar 2019 introduction in Spain were real, they would have found more cases and been able to sequence them, instead of just getting a little blip on a super-sensitive assay.
- coldtea 6y agoHow about these: https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/12/01/study-suggests-covid-19-was-in-the-us-weeks-earlier-than-thought-before-first-public-cases-in-china/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/12/01/study-sug... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/15/coronavirus-emerged-in-italy-earlier-than-thought-study-shows.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/15/coronavirus-emerged-in-italy...
- 6y ago
- howtofly 6y agoNow we're busy celebrating Chinese New Year and the victory of the fight over COVID-19, who care about US concerns :)
- WarOnPrivacy 6y agoI will know whether or not China engineered this virus when I read compelling, trustworthy evidence to that end.
- count_chockula 6y agoFirst: Calling the virus Chinese is racist. Second: Trump is now gone. Now: The virus might have come from a lab in China. Summary: Playing politics harms all.
- blackrock 6y agoSo which is it? That the Chinese eat bats? Or that this was a lab leak? Because it obviously cannot be both! But yet, all the racist white people of the world, and yes, they were all white people, were accusing the Chinese of being disgusting and eating bats. The western world claims that they are multicultural, and not racist, but yet, this one thing caused them to show their true racist colors. Surprisingly, no normal white people, came to the defense and shouted down the racists among them. Thus validating the fact, that their silence meant that they supported all the racist vitriol that came out from their fellow brethren. The truth hurts. I know. I expect that my comment will be flagged and censored.
- diogenescynic 6y agoWHO can’t even say Taiwan, so I’m not going to trust anything they say related to China.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- Sparkyte 6y agoI don't know but the racism against Asian Americans needs to stop as majority of are not immigrants. Not just the immigrant complaint but not everyone Asian is Chinese. An elderly Thai man was brutally murdered by a couple racist kids, one ironically named Malaysia.
- knolax 6y agoIt's interesting that instead of posting the report itself, or even a detailed article that criticizes the report, the top article on HN is a bland summary of an accusation from a third party with no direct quotes or attribution. It's basically a press release. The only article that I can find that actually tries to levy complaints of obstruction is this one from the NYT[0]. However, several of the WHO investigators quoted have gone on Twitter accusing the NYT of twisting their words[1]. Makes me pretty doubtful that there was any obstruction. On one side we have a country with half a million cases that has since December been accusing China with "coverups" without materializing much evidence, despite document leaks and now an international investigation. On the other side we have a country with orders of magnitude fewer total and per capita cases, whose case demographics have matched up with numbers from other countries, and whose export numbers in neighboring countries has also been consistent with their reported numbers. At this point if there was some sort of obstruction or coverup the Whitehouse would have a smoking gun by now. Other comments here talking about the "lab origin" theory pretty much hinge on theological logic. "Well it could come from a lab, and there's no proof yet that it didn't, so I have faith". It isn't Bayesian reasoning if you don't bring up rigorous statistics to prove your point. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/world/asia/china-world-health-organization-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/world/asia/china-world-he... [1] https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/caught-in-the-act-new-york-times-intentionally-misquotes-scientists-to-fit-its-prescribed-narrative.html https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/caught-in-the-act-new-...
- bloomfilter 6y agoWhether the virus came out of a lab or not, one thing is clear — we as a country can’t handle any pandemic. Till this day we still can’t get everyone wear a mask in public. (I have some people on FB working at tech industry with grad school education still think we should let the virus run its course, and mask is stupid) Not to mention thousands of large social gatherings that happened way after the virus was already causing thousands of death. If you can’t control other countries, maybe we should at least figure out how to improve our response? What if some other virus comes out of nature next time when we have no one to blame?
- Leary 6y agoPeople don't realize that we are engaged in a great power competition with China. And the battle of information/misinformation is everywhere. Don't trust anything from the US/China about the other, rely on neutral third parties instead
- SixDouble5321 6y agoIt doesn't seem to me that any significant third party can be completely neutral when it concerns the US and China. There is practically nowhere on this planet one can hope to truly be unaffected by one or the other.
- anovikov 6y agoThese people will never change. Wasn't Yalta conference or Cuban missile crisis sufficient to understand that one should never trust Commies?
- jpswade 6y agoIt’s an interesting theory, I’d question what’s their end game here? What’s the motive?
- xnfra 6y agoI just wish everyone deals with this whole situation with absolute objectivity instead of hyperbole. Speculation and trust is important but please don't input your own subjective perspective into assumptions.
- sgt101 6y agoWe know that China made a mess of the first phase of the pandemic. There was a huge new years party in Wuhan and an uncontrolled outbreak. That was in the news at the time, but someone then put the story about a lab excursion out which is probably untrue and this has been a key focus of discussions since. To me this is like a magician distracting the audiences attention from the gold penny - you are all looking in the wrong place while the real issue is being forgotten.
- fuckCCP0 6y agoFucking kill yourself, CCP shill
- fuckCCP0 6y agoFucking kill yourself, CCP shill
- fuckCCP0 6y agoHahahahahahhahahahahahahaha "So no, this often repeated fallacy by the west that they condemn CCP not the Chinese people is not only ignorant but supremely arrogant and condescending in assuming 1.4B are somehow mindless robots at the mercy of the few." So are they or are they not mindless robots? It's not only ignorant but supremely arrogant and condescending to assume the 1.4B can't tell the difference between real and fake news and need to be restricted in what information they can consume. Fuck you
- yawaworht1978 6y agoLol this is why programmers should stick to programming.
- berdario 6y agoReuters is twisting the truth. We should rather listen to the scientists who actually worked at the WHO. https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/1360551108565999619 https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/1360551108565999619 https://twitter.com/TheaKFischer/status/1360590441817772034 https://twitter.com/TheaKFischer/status/1360590441817772034 https://twitter.com/LiuXininBeijing/status/1360741600507269121 https://twitter.com/LiuXininBeijing/status/13607416005072691... And people wonder why I complain about propaganda in the western world :/
- tremon 6y agoGTFO. The article is about the US government's stance, not about the WHO, so quoting random people that have no affiliation with the White House is completely missing the point, and I think intentionally.
- berdario 6y agoFrom the article: "China refused to give raw data on early COVID-19 cases to the WHO-led team probing the origins of the pandemic, according to one of the team’s investigators, potentially complicating efforts to understand how the outbreak began." The powerful people in our governments are reading the same propaganda that you and I are reading, and they can thus end up believing it. The reason why the US government is pushing this issue, is exactly because of what the NYT, Reuters, etc are peddling. You should also refrain from attacking others ("GTFO", "intentionally missing the point") if you want to have a discussion in good faith
- ggm 6y agoPlausible is not evidence. Gain of function as I understand it leaves signs. If scientists say they don't see the signs, that's absence of evidence. On the other hand zoonotic disease is known to exist. Please do not allow dislike of a state party system to pollute your thinking. Your views about China do not inform what happened and in the end, this becomes repetitive. I might add that I dislike many things about other economies just as much. I too indulge these "they musta dunnit" fantasies. But, I wake up to myself: wasting too much time on motive and belief is not helpful. There is no strong evidence of lab caused leakage. The WHO scientists are competent. WHO politics are ugly, all UN politics are ugly. Read the science.
- tim333 6y agoSerial passage doesn't leave much signs apart from maybe those observed.
- amelius 6y agoWhy isn't there some regulation in place that says that any man-made virus should contain some specific sequence of junk dna so that we can at least trace it as such?
- tim333 6y agoIt's not that easy to do in many cases. The human manipulation is often infecting cells in a lab rather than entering a sequence in a computer and synthesising it. However making it a regulation to keep samples and publish sequences would probably make sense.
- steve76 6y agoToday is Valentines Day. And a Sunday. Living in the USA, I have the luxury to acknowledge Christ, and love. Faith is doing what Adam could not do. Whether good things happen or not, humanity will always find paradise by limiting the violence and not creating it. From there arrives hope, knowing you found paradise while others are not. Their actions are not yours, and you wish them the best. Both annihilate the self, replacing it with paradise. Both require effort. Greater than both is love, not license, or the soft New Age. What's seen in nature, in Renaissance masters. Overwhelming power that dwarfs people, melting away one's faults with cherishment by someone else who's better in every way. No mysticism required with humanistic religion. Something more powerful lets me live. We exist because of forgiveness. That's good enough. Authoritarians, their unchecked ambition, unrestrained by laws replace life with nothing. To them, a place with plagues and murder is a good place. Billions of people are something to be processed, to be mined for hollow celebrity and ambitious license unrestrained by laws. A genetic weapon released from a communist military lab??? Everyone is very lucky they're still breathing. This could have easily killed the world. And for what? A 1% margin on soy bean prices? Americans, people we trusted with power and money rushed to defend their precious marxism like some teenage girl catfished by jihadis in 2014. Since everyone gets to what they want, I'm going to emit a matter wave into the center of the sun. The sub orbits a black hole. I make it so the surface of that black hole is a faster, easier path than completing an orbit around it. I expand that to the surface of the Earth for gravity applications, coherent control of pair production. All observable celestial bodies are thermal effects of what's here on Earth. It's one thing to mine an asteroid with fuel cells and drones. It's another thing to microwave it out of the sky, as if I command the weather around us, the clouds above, and even the great heavenly bodies themselves!!!