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The state of the restaurant industry
- TylerE 7y agoGetting ready to nose dive totally. Here in NC we just joined the list of states that have banned dine-in service entirely. Curbside or delivery only, after 5PM today.
- mark-r 7y agoSame here in Minnesota.
- frosted-flakes 7y agoAnd Ontario.
- fbonetti 7y agoSame in Illinois and Michigan.
- welfare 7y agoSame in PA
- kshannon 7y agoIowa is carry-out or drive thru only as of noon Tuesday.
- AnimalMuppet 7y agoIn Utah it was 11 PM yesterday. Or at least in Salt Lake City.
- radmarshallb 7y agoThe governor made it statewide earlier today
- enraged_camel 7y agoSame here in Austin!
- jborichevskiy 7y agoSame here in NYC since this morning.
- bigsassy 7y agoSame here in Maryland (since yesterday).
- neltnerb 7y agoI'm always a little surprised that so many people never picked up the ability to even do basic cooking. Of course, as recently as Sunday people like Nunes were telling people it was important to support their local businesses by eating out as if it were their patriotic duty. It might be different now that even Fox and Trump are saying the same thing as the CDC finally. Maybe not if people literally cannot feed themselves without eating out, though I think that's pretty embarrassing.
- JCharante 7y agoMaybe the demand is also caused by people who have returned from traveling in the past two weeks and are self quarantining somewhere where they have no cooking equipment?
- neltnerb 7y agoCould be, and obviously some people can't cook for reasons other than lack of willingness to learn. I get that, I'm also disabled and cooking is sometimes too hard. But I bet it looks a lot different next Saturday than it did last Saturday just from 46% of the country suddenly hearing from the only source they trust that this is, indeed, a big deal. I'm thankful for this, though I wish we hadn't spent the last month trying to convince that same 46% of the country (who trend significantly towards the elderly end of the spectrum) that it was an overblown conspiracy against the incumbent president.
- sneak 7y agoMany grocery stores have major shortages, short-term grocery deliveries are fully booked, and where I am, normally 1-2 day Amazon food/medicine mail-order deliveries are presently at 5+ days. I stocked up a month ago when everything was still running to ensure my household has food 12 weeks (I always have 30 days, but wanted to be on the safe side), but I know many people did not, and it’s going to be a while before all of those people can be properly supplied.
- pc86 7y agoEspecially when you have people who already have 4 weeks of food going out and buying another 2 months worth.
- cs702 7y agoWow, 50-70% drop in online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-in diners, compared to last year, in every country measured by OpenTable. The restaurant sector generates $3 trillion in annual sales worldwide, and provides employment to a vast number of individuals.[a] Absent government intervention, the cascading economic impact from just this one sector will be enormous. [a] https://medium.com/@CravyHQ/the-restaurant-industry-a-global-perspective-26cea1b91701 https://medium.com/@CravyHQ/the-restaurant-industry-a-global...
- BolexNOLA 7y agoWe’re feeling it baaaad here in New Orleans. Roughly 8% of our workforce is in the service sector and our film/television industry has ground to a halt. I work in video production. My friends/colleagues and I are basically just sitting around now hoping productions can get back up again in a safe but still somewhat timely manner. It’s going to be rough for a while.
- kingbirdy 7y agoA friend works at a large chain hotel in NOLA, the entire hotel staff was furloughed for 2 months a few days ago.
- BolexNOLA 7y agoHope your friend is doing alright. I’m talking to my sister about a project for small businesses and gig economy workers today. Hopefully we can get something going. Let them know that the New Orleans Business Alliance has also set up a fund for people out of work for 7 days or more!
- yibg 7y agoNot sure how well this correlates to revenue lost though. I'm sure there is massive impact, I wouldn't be surprised if there is also a corresponding uptick in takeout orders.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- brenden2 7y agoPresumably it should be -100% in cities like NYC where restaurants have been ordered to shut down for in-restaurant dining.
- pbourke 7y agoThe OpenTable data includes takeout and delivery. I think NYC actually might do a bit better than other markets, since there is a strong takeout and delivery culture with most restaurants below the fine dining level.
- dlandis 7y agoDoes that data indicate that seated reservations are only presently down 56% YOY in the US ? That's pretty discouraging if that many people are still ignoring standard guidance.
- bluedino 7y agoIn my state it's over 70% All the drive-throughs only had 1-2 cars in them today at lunch, instead of the line being wrapped around the building like usual.
- nck4222 7y agoThere are a lot of people who don't really understand the importance of social distancing yet. When we told in-laws that the state (MA) had just banned dining-in starting the next day their response was "wow good thing we went out for dinner tonight then."
- logicalmind 7y agoI'm sure I'm not the only one who has had to question the intelligence of family and acquaintances whom I used to hold in high regard. I've been asked to participate in "measle parties" with my kids. And to do a community stationary bike ride a the local gym to support them.
- Terretta 7y agoThe cognitive dissonance is real, it’s a sort of inverse ‘tragedy of the commons’, or akin to years of climate change behavior played out in days.
- wmeredith 7y agoThat's about to completely crater. My city issued guidance just yesterday (3/16) that all dining room service is to stop. Drive through, delivery, and curbside only.
- the_economist 7y agoWhat city?
- jcranmer 7y agoThe jurisdictions I'm aware of that have banned dining room service include: Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, several places in the Bay Area, New York, New Jersey, Washington, Illinois, Ohio. Basically, at this point, whenever a few large jurisdictions announce their intentions to take some coronavirus measures (such as closing schools or closing restaurants), everyone else follows through within 48 hours.
- jedberg 7y agoNot sure what city OP is in, but every Bay Area county did that today.
- gooseus 7y agoAll of Oregon just started today as well
- mNovak 7y agoIllinois and Ohio, I know at least
- sixothree 7y agoLouisiana closed all bars and limited restaurants to takeout, delivery, or drive-thru service only.
- prkr 7y agoAnd Colorado as well.
- 7y ago
- coldcode 7y agoIn Orlando its 50% capacity, but no sales of booze except to go.
- KptMarchewa 7y agoI can't understand why would somebody think that putting latest data on the left is a good idea.
- pp19dd 7y agoThought the same thing, and came to a conclusion it was intended so it shows angry red first on smaller screens, the very punchline it was meant to show. The page is obviously not responsive optimized (vertical table for narrow layouts maybe?) but the importance of the data makes me overlook hastiness in which it was put together.
- kinkrtyavimoodh 7y agoMaybe they're from an Arabic speaking country :P
- dabeeeenster 7y agoOften cohort tables start with the most recent date on the left.
- 7777fps 7y agoIf it becomes very long then the data you lose to the scrollbar is the least relevant.
- overcast 7y agoThen don't put long data in a horizontal scrollbar. It's the worst possible UX ever.
- tylerchilds 7y agoWhat's your suggestion for improvement?
- overcast 7y agoHow about a neat line graph? There's only 8 data sources. Most of the space on their table is wasted by large left/right padding.
- zaroth 7y agoSiting at a table with your family that is wiped down just before you sit seems to me like an incredibly low risk activity. As in, less risky than picking up food from a grocery store where infected people are shopping and touching things on a daily basis.
- atom-morgan 7y agoHave you ever actually watched a busboy wipe down your table? Sometimes I swear they just use a wet rag dumped into soapy water that's been reused over and over.
- zaroth 7y agoRight, so this is a good time for the health department to provide specific instructions on what is required (e.g. the type of disinfectant spray, how long it sits, and drying with paper towels not rags) EDIT: HN is preventing me from replying to you so I’ll edit it in here... Yes, of course, all of it... - They of course should remove the salt & paper shakers. Single use packets can be provided. - They need disposable or wiped down menus. - There can be no self-serve dispensers for napkins or utensils, those have to be distributed one by one. - Seating must be reorganized to keep reasonable distances. - Chefs and waitstaff all must check temperature before their shifts and record in a logbook These are all reasonable common sense measures we can take to keep a massive segment of the economy alive. Restaurants can add a $10 COVID cleaning surcharge if they want to. I mean, it’s only worth like $1 trillion dollars to the economy. There are ~15 million jobs at stake, and that’s not counting secondary effects. And the problem isn’t going away in a few days or even a couple weeks. I saw a video of the Tesla Factory in China and the changes they’ve made to protect workers. For example, the cafeteria tables have been converted into single-person cubbies enclosed on 3 sides. https://youtu.be/9l_4ZH3iXbw https://youtu.be/9l_4ZH3iXbw
- function_seven 7y agoThe surface of the table is just one thing out of dozens: Are they going to spray down the salt and pepper shakers, the menus, the hot sauce, the napkin dispenser, the chair seat and back? For self-serve places, how often are the trash cans disinfected, or the ketchup and mustard dispensers (or packet piles)? All that not to mention the other patrons in close proximity while you dine. We don't realize how many communal surfaces we touch in a normal day.
- jedberg 7y agoI noticed that the global line and the US line are pretty much within 1% of each other the entire time. So really this is US data, since it looks like almost all of their restaurants are in the US. I wouldn't put much stock in the other countries. That being said, this data certainly shows a devastating trend for the restaurant industry.
- j88439h84 7y ago'trend' doesn't seem like the right word
- jedberg 7y agoDevastating collapse?
- mmanfrin 7y agoOT is majority US, but UK/JP/MX/CA are also big markets for them and I wouldn't discount that data. Source: I'm a former OT employee :]
- Ensorceled 7y agoNot sure about the rest of Canada, but they have a significant share of restaurants in the GTA and most of Ontario.
- drpgq 7y agoI own a small share of a bar and we closed yesterday. Definitely hurts financially before St. Patrick's Day. We're lucky that our rent is low and we're a pretty small operation with limited food service. I can imagine for places in downtowns where rent is bigger percentage of sales, that's going to be tough.
- mNovak 7y agoSBA will be distributing low-interest, long term loans, if it helps any. https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/disaster-assistance https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/disaster-assistance
- Ensorceled 7y agoRestaurants typically run at 3-5% margins, how low are these interest rates?
- vxNsr 7y agoapparently 3.75%
- himinlomax 7y agoIn France it's -100% by law, except for takeaway. Thanks a bunch, Xi Jinping!
- vkou 7y agoWhy do you think any other country would have been able to contain this outbreak?
- himinlomax 7y agoOther countries don't have those filthy wet markets. They ARE absolutely filthy. They're on the same hygiene levels as the bushmeat markets in the poorest African countries. You know, Ebola? Isn't it amazing that poorer, even denser countries like India or Bangladesh haven't originated the same deadly pandemics? The PRC deserves the blame for this. Scientists have known about the issues with those markets for a long time, at least since SARS. They only just prohibited the trade of wild animals. Why not before? (Of course some people will call this racism, but other ethnic Chinese countries like HK, Taiwan or Singapore have world-leading hygiene standards. This one is on the Chinese dictatorship, not the Chinese people.)
- danenania 7y agoIndustrial farming practices in the US and many other countries could easily lead to similarly dangerous animal-to-human transmissions.
- fock 7y agofortunately in industrial farming, the infection risk the other way round (human→animal) is such a business risk, that adequate precautions are taken!
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago> Industrial farming practices in the US and many other countries could easily lead to similarly dangerous animal-to-human transmissions SARS-CoV-2 appears to have originated in bats, been passed to Malayan pangolins, and then made its jump to humans [1]. That is likely in a wet market. It is not likely on a single-animal industrial farm. [1] https://www.cell.com/pb-assets/journals/research/current-biology/CURBIO_CURRENT-BIOLOGY-D-20-00299-compressed.pdf https://www.cell.com/pb-assets/journals/research/current-bio...
- threatofrain 7y agoPerhaps US eat-out culture will die, and those who worked those jobs will just have to find some other means by which to negotiate value from the economy.
- trianglem 7y agoBut there’s just so many of them. Between the hotel and restaurant industry we’re talking about more than 20 million people.
- xbmcuser 7y agoPeople don't realise that many of these business will be dead and wont come back after. The knock on effect will go up the supply chain. For example lobster trappers, fishers, ranchers, farmers bulk of their income comes from supplying to restaurants if restaurants are not buying prices will come down which will affect them further.
- mml 7y agoHaving seen it first hand, the vast majority of those 20 million people are living check to check. even missing a few shifts puts them on the brink of homelessness. this is going to be very, very bad.
- ericd 7y agoI’m pretty sure the police departments and judges aren’t going to be allowing evictions right now.
- throwaway5752 7y agoMaybe, given the financial shock, no other means are readily available. Maybe, given the lack of means to negotiate value from the economy the lose the ability to buy food or pay for their shelter. Maybe in that case they either band with other people unable to negotiate this value, abandon respect for the law, and take that value by force. Maybe they do not do this, and are forced into situations that put them in greater contact with other people and makes the pandemic worse.
- tinyhouse 7y agoMost restaurants moved to take out and delivery mode. Obv no one is doing online reservations these days. I don't understand what's OpenTable trying to say here.
- bdcravens 7y agoHouston, like many cities, banned dine-in, though takeout and delivery are still options. Obviously Open Table's data won't reflect those sales.
- slg 7y agoThe government has talked about bailouts for various industries from airlines, to cruise ships, to shale companies. But almost every sector of the US economy is going to be hit by this and I have no idea how we are going to react. Will there be a restaurant bailout? What would that even look like? It is much easier to work on bailing out a handful of airlines but how do you handle it for literally thousands of small businesses?
- thedogeye 7y agoSBA just announced a program for loans up to $2M at 3.75% to make payroll
- slg 7y agoLoans don't solve this. It isn't like once this is over restaurant patronage will jump up to 200% of normal. This is business these companies will never get back. Giving them a loan that they can't repay is just delaying the problem.
- dillondoyle 7y agoprobably with compounding interest if they allow deferred payments lol
- mech1234 7y agoSpreading the problem out over a long period of time keeps the company in business. It's a no-brainer good idea for the SBA to do this. Not sure what you would prefer instead.
- slg 7y agoIt is like CPR. It is better than doing absolutely nothing and gives extra time for more extreme measures, but on its own it is just delaying the inevitable.
- 7y ago
- acq_question 7y agoThis is probably a good proxy of adherence to social distancing
- smallgovt 7y agoNot to trivialize the numbers, but people still have to eat, so these dollars are largely being re-allocated elsewhere, primarily to takeout, food delivery, and grocery stores. Other sectors that are service-based represent real net loss in GDP.
- creato 7y agoEven delivered groceries are significantly cheaper than eating out. That difference is mostly the income of restaurant workers.
- sk5t 7y agoYep. Food cost is usually about 1/3 of the bill; 1/3 to rent and overhead, 1/3 to staff. If a few percent can be squeezed from any of those areas, there's the restaurant's profit.
- smallgovt 7y agoIf there's a silver lining, it's that takeout is higher margin for restaurants and I'm sure takeout revenue is spiking during city shutdowns.
- selectodude 7y agoNo it’s not. The margin on one beer is more than two entrees put together.
- whatshisface 7y agoBut a takeout beer would be higher margin than a sit-in beer.
- zackbloom 7y agoHow many people order takeout beer at restaurants? Depending on the city it's often not even legal.
- hammock 7y agoAt this point, what good is "seated diners" data when every restaurant is takeout and delivery only?
- cj 7y agoAgree. I have 2 cousins who manage a restaurant in upstate New York. Everyone was told to apply for unemployment (which has had its waiting period waived), except for the manager and assistant manager. The game plan is to trial take-out only dinners, but since less than 5% of their previous business was take out, their hopes aren’t high. I’m really interested to see how many small businesses like this pull through.
- nemonemo 7y agoThough some of the major ones may have the restriction, not all US metros have the regulation yet. It would be good to have a data on how much of the number is under the regulation.
- brewdad 7y agoI would expect these restrictions to be nationwide by this weekend, if not sooner.
- MuffinFlavored 7y agoCurious if this 40-70% drop in seated diners has been offset by takeout/delivery.
- corford 7y agoIt's true. Would be great if JustEat and others posted similar data.
- thom 7y agoI realise this is an entirely irrelevant point, but any ideas why Germany was doing so well up until this crisis?
- jedberg 7y agoMy guess is that the have very few restaurants in Germany, so it's just noise.
- tastroder 7y agoIt also seems to be year over year data and February last year was pretty warm, potentially driving more people outside instead of into restaurants compared to the relatively rainy month we just had.
- netsharc 7y agoOpened opentable.de, they say they have 1744 restaurants in Berlin alone, 624 in Hamburg, and 1122 in Munich, plus many other cities/regions. I wonder why only Munich and Hamburg are in the Cities table, and why there's e.g a jump of 19% in Munich for Sunday March 1. This year it was warm (for winter) and dry on that Sunday, and last year it was presumably wet and dreary.
- baby 7y agohave you eaten German food before?
- save_ferris 7y agoIs this really that surprising given that states and countries are now explicitly prohibiting dine-in options and mandating restaurants to be takeout only? I'd love to see this data overlaid against the changes in takeout orders.
- SlowRobotAhead 7y agoAbsolutely. My town shut down restaurant eat in this week, but when I went my favorite Thai place for pickup the owner said they had one of their busiest Saturdays ever. Despite fear, rational or not, people still need to eat.
- mcv 7y agoI heard of at least one fancy restaurant that announced they're going to offer take-out and delivery soon. It's going to be the only way to survive.
- quickthrowman 7y agoAdapt or die, many upscale restaurants in my area are doing the same.
- Stratoscope 7y agoHere in the Bay Area, that's all any restaurant is allowed to do.
- jmb12686 7y agoHere in the entire state of Ohio, literally every dine in restaurant and/or bar operation has been shut down. Only take out / delivery is allowed: https://governor.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/governor/media/news-and-media/dewine-orders-ohio-bars-restaurants-to-close https://governor.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/governor/media/news... I believe other states / municipalities have started to follow suit, but entire state shutdown has been surreal.
- 7y ago
- aresant 7y agoI have a friend that owns a restaurant, doesn't sell gift cards online and no idea how to do. What's the fastest way to set up a Gift Card program?
- cromulent 7y agohttps://stripe.com/partners/gift-up https://stripe.com/partners/gift-up
- notacoward 7y agoCould you do something with Venmo plus a manual ledger? Send money, write down the person's name etc., if they come in later you can look it up and give the credit.
- ajay1215 7y agoDo they use square? https://squareup.com/us/en/gift-cards https://squareup.com/us/en/gift-cards
- synack 7y agohttps://twitter.com/mulligan/status/1239774408173969413 https://twitter.com/mulligan/status/1239774408173969413
- CodeCube 7y agoI truly hope your friend can figure out a way through this ... however isn't selling gift cards just kind of punting the problem down the road? If their customers buy gift cards now, and then return to use then in X weeks/months, wouldn't they just be working for "free" at that point (assuming all the funds from the gift cards were used to get them through the customer-less time)?
- koheripbal 7y agoIt effectively acts as an interest free loan to the business.
- krallja 7y agoThe golf pro shop near me uses a laser printer and colorful paper. The actual liability is recorded in a ledger. You could do this with email and a spreadsheet.
- runevault 7y agoI would love to see similar data for other industries as well. Any form of retail is going to get hit by this. Those that don't have online ordering setup are in for a world of hurt, and those that have it but don't advertise it well may not change the message fast enough. The long term impact for a lot of people is terrifying, but I don't see a way to avoid it without instead badly damaging our healthcare system and potentially killing a lot of people.
- throwaway7291 7y agoWe have built a dashboard to do this sort of tracking https://www.econdb.com/covid/Italy/ https://www.econdb.com/covid/Italy/ which will be improved gradually. Obtaining good proxies for economic activity can be hard on some sectors.
- batirch 7y agoGreat insights. Thanks for your work!
- dylan604 7y ago>the cascading economic impact from just this one sector will be enormous. The entire hospitality industry is going to take a huge hit. I do work in the convention, corporate travel/event space, and my calendar up until June has been wiped out. Cascading is the key thing people seem to gloss over. Sure, servers and kitchen staff are obvious. The food delivery people will not be needed. Companies like Aramark that provide cleaning services for floor mats/uniforms/etc are not needed. Down the line it goes.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- 51Cards 7y agoI also work in the conventions/trade shows/consumer shows space... we're also 100% cancelled for awhile. Had to lay off a bunch of staff this week, some who live paycheck to paycheck. Going to be a rough ride for a lot of people for awhile.
- rosybox 7y agoIt's going to be wiped out far beyond June. Based on the recent models run by UK, the same models that prompted the White House to warn against gatherings of greater than 10 people, the curve doesn't end even without intervention until August. With intervention what we are going through right now could last well into 2021.
- spookthesunset 7y agoStop with the doomsday panic. This lockdown thing isn’t going to last more than a few weeks at most—at least without massive social upheaval. Source: my ill informed opinion, same as yours. same source as yours.
- coldtea 7y ago>Stop with the doomsday panic. This lockdown thing isn’t going to last more than a few weeks at most—at least without massive social upheaval. Social upheaval against a "lockdown" becomes a moot point if people you know keep dropping dead.
- fimbulvetr 7y agoI'd like to see similar data for real estate, though I recognize that the data is much more proprietary and there's a much longer lead time for some events (like closings) but for things like showings, open houses, etc. it would be nice to see.
- changoplatanero 7y agoWhat happened in Nebraska in feb 22nd?
- Jim- 7y agoThe Wilder vs Fury fight? :p
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- justinmares 7y agoCrazy. Over the weekend my friend Brent and I built something to help - https://givelocal.co/ https://givelocal.co/ Basically, a site that helps you buy gift cards and support your favorite local restaurant through the COVID pandemic. Would love community feedback!
- rosybox 7y agoI feel for the industry, but I'm having a hard time seeing myself buying gift cards at a moment when I'm wondering if I will have a job or food for my family.
- jpizagno 7y agoI was just laid off due to the virus. So yes, be careful. That is the problem with "corona panic", it causes other people to panic and behave irrationally
- chintan 7y agoNice viz. the 102% increase in New Orleans on feb 25 could be explained due to the ball game between Pelicans vs Lakers
- jihadjihad 7y agoFar more likely that it's due to Mardi Gras (Feb 25, 2020)
- jborichevskiy 7y agoGood data here. I would love to see Square publish something.
- koolba 7y agoLosing 30% of retirement savings likely caused a chunk of this as well. Maybe not the bulk but I’d bet it’s a factor in people pulling back on all spending.
- linuxftw 7y agoTechnically speaking, nobody should have lost 30% of their retirement savings. Young people should have much more saving to do, so it will be a smaller fraction of their overall retirement savings. Older folks should have been pivoting into less risky assets already.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- koheripbal 7y agoEven losing 15% will cause you to cut spending.
- stronglikedan 7y agoOn the bright side, I've never received better dine-in service than I have in the past few days.
- ck2 7y agoIt's not about industry, it's about the people. We handle this like any other shuttered or suffering business though no fault of their own, with safety nets for the people. Problem is those safety nets have been destroyed in this country and people voted for that to happen on purpose because darn if they are going to let one single migrant get assistance. This is the result. People feeling they must go into work sick because "no other choice".
- evo_9 7y agoMy wife an I opened a nail and wax salon 6 months ago. Really don't know what to do, so far they haven't asked us to shutdown. Business had been steadily growing and we are about break-even. No idea how this will play-out, what if anything the building owner can do to help out, or how the federal help might work for a small business like ours. The rent and payroll are our biggest expenses naturally, we can of course cut hours and even close entirely; no idea what our staff will do with no income. If this lasts more than 3-4 weeks (which is likely), yeah it's hard to say how any business is going to survive. Only good thing is I have a full time job for a major health company and our mobile app usage this week has sky rocketed... so my day job is quite secure at least.
- joering2 7y agoWhat's your mobile app please? :)
- evo_9 7y agoDavita Care Connect. Def. not 'my app', I just work on it.
- linuxftw 7y ago> Really don't know what to do People are trapped at home, itching to get out. You run aggressive promotions right now to drive up your customer base since everyone is sitting at home bored with nothing to do.
- mft_ 7y agoWould that be a socially appropriate action to take? Encourage people out of their homes at a time when it seems that the exact opposite is needed to start controlling the spread of the virus?
- linuxftw 7y agoPeople are still going out and doing things. Grocery store is open, home improvement stores are open, Walmart is open. It sounds like their business is currently open, so they might as well bring in more customers.
- spookthesunset 7y agoIf this lasts more than two or three weeks, at least with out a crisp well articulated end game, things are going to go downhill very fast.
- ma2rten 7y agoI don't see how this can be over in less than 3 months.
- spookthesunset 7y agoBased on what data? If you think society will tolerate this kind of lockdown for more than a few weeks, you need to rethink your stance. If we are locked up for 3 months like this you will have your doomsday scenario. Our entire supply chain will fall apart. People won’t get food, medicine, things that make them happy. Sporting events, social gatherings, etc. People will become depressed and kill themselves. People will go nuts and kill everybody around them. You’ll have a situation on your hands much, much worse than this virus. Much worse. People have lost their damn minds and stopped thinking rationally. Snap out it. Go on a damn walk. Nobody is gonna be locked down for three fucking months. If we actually are, I suggest stocking up on guns and ammo now because that will devolve into a doomsday scenario. One much worse than anything this virus can possibly dish out.
- AndrewKemendo 7y agoBased on what I'm seeing, it seems like that's exactly the path we're on in the US unfortunately.
- spookthesunset 7y agoBased on what data?
- evo_9 7y agoAs a business owner I hope you are right, that this clears up in weeks not months; However it would be pretty irresponsible of me to take that line of thinking, no? The facts appear to be supporting the 3 month shutdown, they include: - The US Government has said, including the President, that this could last until August. Some expert think that's conservative. - A vaccine isn't likely for 12+ months. - Testing facilities are limited and will likely take 3-4 weeks for widespread roll-out. - We don't fully understand the dynamics of how the virus is spread. - Congress/Senate are readying a staggeringly large help package (800 BILLION); that relief is at least 2-3 weeks away and I would argue suggests the lock down is going to last well past 3-4 weeks (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/white-house-senate-republicans-coronavirus-aid-133732 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/white-house-senate-...).
- 76543210 7y agoIt's a useless industry, it's a disposable luxury. I feel for the workers, but as a whole, less disposable luxuries sounds good for fiscal responsibility and productivity.
- blazespin 7y agoThat's unnecessarily harsh, but I do agree we might want to consider developing an economy less based on such types of consumer spending. If a particularly bad flu can take us out like these, we are very fragile indeed.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- csolorio 7y agoI run an online mobile ordering app for restaurants as a side project and have never seen this many sign ups in one day. I have a full time job so had to bring my gf on to help with customer support.
- Melting_Harps 7y ago> I run an online mobile ordering app for restaurants as a side project and have never seen this many sign ups in one day. I have a full time job so had to bring my gf on to help with customer support. Interesting, I'd like to see how the indie apps compete against the big guys like Doordash and Uber Eats, especially now during this shutdown. What is your biggest bottleneck, background checks and driver license verification? Bank accounts? Let me know if you want an extra hand from a remote worker, I used to have to do tech support/emails for my startup, too. All while having a day job so I can understand how overwhelming coming home to 77 unread emails while staring at a backlog of unresolved tickets can be.
- Melting_Harps 7y agoInteresting update: https://downdetector.com/status/doordash/ https://downdetector.com/status/doordash/
- ape4 7y agoOpentable could help their "restaurant partners" by charging them smaller amount.
- ganoushoreilly 7y agoAs I was reading this I got a notification that Uber Eats would be providing $0 fee delivery for food in our area.
- tkdkop 7y ago7shifts also posted yesterday about the effects they're seeing from COVID-19. Their Seattle customers were hit extremely hard https://www.7shifts.com/blog/covid-19-for-restaurants/ https://www.7shifts.com/blog/covid-19-for-restaurants/
- Touche 7y agoCan anyone explain how you are supposed to pick up food (or have it delivered) while still maintaining the 6-foot distance from other individuals?
- yeswecatan 7y agoLeave it on a table?
- Touche 7y agoMany restaurants are advertising curbside service. I assume this means they bring it to your car. I'm just trying to understand how this all works.
- yalogin 7y agoThese will be the lingering repurcussions from this crisis. Restaurants might bounce back but the people working in those places will have a tough time.
- zdw 7y agoLooking at this data, prior to asking people to isolate, I wonder if the day to day variation is based on a weekly pattern - people culturally may eat out more on weekends or weekdays, so the same calendar day may not be directly comparable to the one in the previous year.
- Shermanium 7y agoWe could turn all these empty hotel rooms into ICU beds if we upgrade to negative pressure ventilation, and we could turn all these empty restaurants into community testing and supply distribution centers staffed by the laid off employees paid for with federal helicopter-drop funds. Think New Deal-level changes.
- teknopaul 7y agoGood plan. Restaurants are almost like like hospitals if you discount for training, facilities and ability to deal with ill people. ICU === eating pizza With fries.
- Shermanium 7y agoi said restaurants for supply sites. whats your idea?
- Engineering-MD 7y agoNot real possible. ITU wards are highly specialised. However the UK is already looking at moving the most well patients to hotels and then uograding wards to ITUs.
- Shermanium 7y agoTHIS. Yes I'm aware of the challenges, not the least of which is ventilation. But this is a great step towards a pivot. Thanks!
- Shermanium 7y agohttps://www.hospitalityandcateringnews.com/2020/03/covid-19-hotels-to-be-turned-into-hospitals/ https://www.hospitalityandcateringnews.com/2020/03/covid-19-...
- nstj 7y agoIt would be interesting to see how this lines up with incidence in coronavirus/covid spread. Some places look to be slower on the uptake in dropping restaurant reservations, which may portend a more severe onset of cv in that community.
- pbourke 7y agoThere are some notable outliers, such as major Florida cities showing less of a drop (maybe due to Spring Break?) despite Florida having active cases and I believe a couple of deaths for over a week now.
- mindfulgeek 7y agoHubby and I own a coffee shop. We closed up on Monday. We have cash reserves to pay our staff and rent for a month (As if they are still working). Praying we’ll be able to increase online bean sales to cover payroll before then.
- hedora 7y agoIt might be better to lay them all off right now, and let them collect covid unemployment benefits. Maybe give them a bonus on the way out the door if the math doesn’t work out well enough for them. That way, you’ll have the cash reserve left over to reliably reopen (and rehire them) after the crisis.
- swiley 7y agoWe didn’t build, now that rent is insane no one will be able to pay it. What happens next? Will all the service workers end up homeless rather than a decent fraction?
- DoreenMichele 7y agoI've been trying to encourage people to support local eateries by getting takeout. I have a compromised immune system. I don't do a lot of eating at restaurants. I do get a lot of takeout and have for a lot of years now. If you call ahead or order online and pick up, it minimizes your exposure to other people. Little Caesar's has a pizza portal where you can order online, pay online, enter a code at the store and retrieve your own pizza from a customer-facing warming oven without ever directly interacting with a person. If you aren't sucking wind financially as a consequence of layoffs and shut downs, getting takeout can help protect our economy from a total meltdown while fostering new habits for a healthier future culture. I'm still getting takeout and some staff at eateries are beginning to greet me enthusiastically by my first name like I'm their best friend, apparently thrilled to pieces to have a regular customer while business is hurting.
- yibg 7y agoAnyone knowledge about the probabilities of getting infected from takeout / delivered food? Either via handling at the restaurant itself or en route. All indications are that the virus can survive quite a while on smooth surfaces like plastic bags.
- nikanj 7y agoThe only thing I know, is the people making the food probably don’t get paid sick leave. With the huge demand in place for delivery food, the pressure is on from their bosses to keep coming in no matter how sick.
- nitwit005 7y agoI suspect most people have friends who have mentioned the same, so the overall trust level is likely fairly low. > Twelve percent of workers said they worked when they were sick with vomiting or diarrhea on two or more shifts during the last year. https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/ehs/ehsnet/plain_language/food-workers-working-when-sick.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/ehs/ehsnet/plain_language/food-work...
- 7y ago
- jpizagno 7y agoRelated to the restaurant industry, Yelp is laying people off due to the corona virus. My contract with the Yelp has been withdrawn. This "corona panic" will kill more people than the virus itself.
- sosodev 7y agoCorona panic isn’t going to kill more people than the virus. Also, it certainly will kill far less people than if we didn’t react at all.
- jpizagno 7y ago"Corona panic isn’t going to kill more people than the virus" I wish I could bet you on that. I could get rich fast
- tomhoward 7y agoYou can buy stocks/derivatives. I'm tempted, though I don't have much cash - I keep putting it into startups (my own and others').
- sershe 7y agoIf the current metrics, economic measures taken, and politicians' statements are any indications, the "corona panic" may as well waste far more life than the worst case unchecked virus epidemic could versus the slowed-down epidemic that will happen anyway.
- shrimpx 7y agoI agree with your sentiment if “wasting life” is taken to mean long lasting negative impact and loss of momentum in people’s lives. This is happening already, to my friends.
- pbourke 7y agoNow that events are cancelled and local businesses cease spending on ads, local media outlets will also start hurting. First local newspapers, then radio, eventually TV. The alt-weeklies in Seattle and Portland have already furloughed a lot of staff and ceased print publication. The economy is a vast web that just had a bowling ball dropped on it.
- pentae 7y agoI ate at a high end Korean steak house the other night in Bali and ALL guests were temperature checked and made to use hand sanitizer on the way into the restaurant. The servers all wore disposable gloves as well. It obviously doesn't stop people who are asymptomatic but it seemed like a great step in the right direction. I imagine if more restaurant venues did this they would get more business during these times.
- gerland 7y agoIMHO the state of the restaurant industry is - why does it still exist? I would have expected it to move to a service oriented model a long time ago. Taking into account how underpaid are the workers comapred to how overpriced they usually are it's nothing short of a miracle. I guess there are SOME restaurants that are necessay, but there is a few of them on almost every street near the place I live in.
- veggieburglar 7y agoSimple- people other than you enjoy going to restaurants and find value in them.
- temporaryCocoon 7y agoAre the data available in more detail? I would like to see the finer substructures of the data such as food types and changes in preference. My business focuses on providing and building such models. If anyone here is from OpenTable and is interested, feel free to reply to this comment.