18 ms·

A decade-long boom is ending as consumers hang on to devices for longer

• JTbane 8y ago
  Call me a conspiracy theorist, but is this the reason for the huge push towards non-user-servicable phones? My phone (LG V20) is one of the last made with an easily removable battery.
• Ibethewalrus 8y ago
  Agreed, bought mine 2 years ago, top of the line, extended warranty, etc. instead I’ve been thinking about replacing my iPad...
• daemonhunter 8y ago
  When they cost as much as they do, is it really a surprise that a good portion of people don't want to replace them every other year? I would like to be one of the people replacing theirs every year or every other year and while I could afford it, I can't justify the expenditure. Add to that the fact that most phones purchased within the past couple of years remain performant enough for most people.
  • screye 8y ago
    Exactly, at this point phones cost about the same as laptops and laptops have a ~3-4 year replacement cycle. I won't be surprised if the same starts applying to phones, now that the improvements between generations are mainly cosmetic.
  • EthanHeilman 8y ago
    I have a pixel one; I see no reason to upgrade. What feature do new phones offer that I can't do with the pixel one.
    • wilsonnb3 8y ago
      Waterproofing is worth it IMO.
      • WaltPurvis 8y ago
        So upgrade when/if you drop your old phone in water? That's actually the only time I've upgraded to a newer phone, the two times I ruined my old phone with water. If my next phone is waterproof, it might be 10 years before I upgrade. (Right now I'm on a Galaxy Note 4, which I got after accidentally running my Note 2 through the laundry a few years ago; it's more than adequate for what I use it for.)
      • sapphire_tomb 8y ago
        In ten years of smartphone ownership, I've never killed a phone with water damage. I've actually never lost one to any damage at all. Waterproofing is a gimmick (to me).
  • 2muchcoffeeman 8y ago
    For a while it was alright. I was willing to upgrade every tick of the iPhone cycle and hand down my old iPhones. I even handed down a couple of iPads. The last few years has been different though. The devices have been good enough. And the prices on the lastest iPhone has kept going up. Had the prices been cheaper I’d have upgraded. My parents are on 4+ year old phones (I use for 2, then they use for 2 before another hand down) and even older spares that are just used for travel and the get a local sim. The incremental improvement is worth it if I can pass down. As it is, I think they’ll have to get new phones when they just stop being supported. I’m not upgrading.
  • hyperpallium 8y ago
    I think the higher prices are in anticipation of slowing sales, the root cause of which is the end of Moore's law etc.
    • manmal 8y ago
      I‘m not sure you can blame Moore‘s law here with iPhone CPUs getting 20-30% performance bumps every year.
      • hyperpallium 8y ago
        Since 28nm, successive nodes cost more per transistor, instead of cheapening exponentially as they had formerly. Strictly speaking, this is one of the Moores-related laws, falling under the "etc" of my comment. tl;dr the performance bumps cost more.
  • bagacrap 8y ago
    Seems easy to justify to me. You use it constantly, a small increase in joy or functionality multiplied by many hours = worth the cost of a speeding ticket.
    • josteink 8y ago
      3% faster is just going to be 3% faster, and nowhere near bringing me actual joy. Having to pay $100 a month for a difference barely measurable in real world performance however... That will cause me real-world dissatisfaction.
      • Dylan16807 8y ago
        You're kidding about those numbers, right? An optimistic but realistic scenario is something like 40% faster and $20 a month, where the phone is used a lot and the speed translates into saving multiple hours a month. Definitely worth it there.
        • josteink 8y ago
          If the phone is a flagship or Apple-priced that’s at least $1200. $100 a month if you buy a new one every year. If the webpages I browse today load fast on my existing phone, network being the speed barrier... will I actually experience a 40% speed-up on a new phone? No way. The value is just not there. And that’s not my opinion. That’s the market speaking. Figures are down for phones everywhere.
          • Dylan16807 8y ago
            Every other year. $2400. And that's if you throw your old phone in the garbage. $20-25 a month lets you trade up to a new $700-900 phone every other year. You won't benefit from that 40% all the time, sure. But if you get 8%, and you use your phone two hours a day, that's almost five hours saved! Processing is not a negligible amount of waiting. Plus new phones tend to have better radios.
  • black_puppydog 8y ago
    Top reason for me to even consider upgrading from my Galaxy S5: Google maps has gotten so overloaded with "features" that opening it takes about a minute and unloads everything else including music player. Similar for Twitter. I don't complain about fb messenger because I took its bloat as a nudge to ditch it years ago already. Luckily, Osmand is getting better and better, and Twitter less and less relevant. \o/
• clumsysmurf 8y ago
  > Optimists (and phonemakers) argue that a new wave of innovation could rejuvenate demand. Hopefully that innovation is the return of the headphone jack :P
  • asaph 8y ago
    I switched to wireless headphones (AirPods) and don't miss the headphone jack at all. Good riddance to tangled wires.
    • mclehman 8y ago
      I have wireless headphones and a Pixel 2 and still wish I had a jack. Sometimes you just want to get in a friend's car and be able to play music or use a nice pair of open-backed headphones when you won't bother someone. I'd still have the choice of whether or not to say good riddance to tangled wires if my phone had a headphone jack.
      • asaph 8y ago
        You still have the choice via an adapter.
        • steelframe 8y ago
          Between constantly needing to plug in to power and plug in to use headphones, the USB-C port on my Pixel 2 wore out in less than one year. I'd constantly lose audio as the cord jostled around, and the power cord would just slip out enough to stop charging in the middle of the night. Google recognized that as a hardware flaw and replaced it with a refurbished phone under warranty, but I don't know what the future repair cost will be outside of warranty.
          • asaph 8y ago
            Consider wireless charging.
        • 8y ago
• inamberclad 8y ago
  Are consumers rallying against the excess of the smartphone market or is this just a product of the quality of new devices? The yearly improvements feel more incremental than ever, so I'm inclined to think it's a little of both.
  • mastazi 8y ago
    The other factor, besides the two that you mentioned, would be that smartphones are a “mature” product category and new models are not introducing significant improvements compared to last year’s. I still remember when I upgraded from an old Symbian-based Nokia to my first “modern” smartphone (an iPhone 3GS): it was a big change! My latest update (from an Android Moto G 3rd gen to an iPhone 7 Plus) was just an incremental improvement.
  • skookumchuck 8y ago
    My old iphone6 does everything I want in a phone.
    • mroche 8y ago
      Still rocking an iPhone 6 here as well. I just can’t lose the jack... :P My battery life isn’t what it used to be, but I can still make it a full day with slightly less usage (restricted to browser/text based mediums). Should have taken advantage of the battery upgrade. Meanwhile my sibling’s 6S(?) Plus drains charge like someone is bloodletting it.
      • b1daly 8y ago
        I have a 6s plus, and had the battery replaced, and still drains the battery like that. I’ve tried all the obvious tricks. I’m befuddled by this, it’s the worst battery life of any phone I’ve had. I thought the bigger case would have helped, but maybe the bigger screen out weighs it. What I find mystifying is why as an average user it’s impossible to figure out why it happens, is it normal, is your phone broken? Apple docs and support provide no insight into one of the primary usability issues. Other than that, it’s quite a nice phone. I picked it up cheap on Craigslist and it’s going strong for two years.
• sn41 8y ago
  I am happy to say that my desktop from 2004 is still alive and kicking. Some websites are a drag, but some on-board replacements have kept the old warrior running. I hope one day we can keep our smartphones on life support for a long time.
  • asaph 8y ago
    You still use a desktop? The portability of a laptop is something I couldn't do without.
    • mclehman 8y ago
      There's nothing that precludes you from having both. My computing needs are adequately met by my laptop, desktop, and personal server at work. Without the laptop, I definitely wouldn't be anywhere near as productive but the same goes for the desktop. My laptop is always ssh-ed (mosh provides the "always" aspect) into one of the others anyway. It's stuck with 8GB of RAM which is often a bottleneck, especially since Docker holds onto a couple gigs and Chrome tries its hardest to get the rest. Portability is necessary but not sufficient to addrrss my computing needs.
    • mastazi 8y ago
      Depending on your requirements you could make it work with a powerful desktop and small and lightweight (but obviously not powerful) laptop, at least I found that’s what works for me rather than those giant and heavy “desktop-replacement” laptops. It gives me the best of both worlds.
      • TeMPOraL 8y ago
        I'm running that configuration with a somewhat powerful desktop and an el-cheapo 10.1″ 2-in-1 (worth ~$200, I bought an used one for ~$120). I was initially saving up to replace the latter with a powerful small laptop, but over the past couple of months necessity made me learn to work more over SSH. So today, I can do 90% of my work somewhat comfortably on that small 2-in-1 via SSH-ing to my desktop and running an extra Emacs frame in terminal. Since that's just a "view" of the same instance I have running in GUI mode on my desktop, I can switch between the two machines almost completely seamlessly. This fits my current needs so well that I actually refrained from buying new hardware right now, and will just keep the money in a "hardware fund" until the poor little 2-in-1 dies.
• zepto 8y ago
  Longer lasting devices are strategic for Apple. It means a larger installed base for the delivery of software, services, and adjunct devices which otherwise wouldn’t be possible when competing against cheap android devices. A lower TCO is a selling point. Analysts are just failing to understand the evolution of the business model.
  • samatman 8y ago
    Agreed. I picked up a X because I just couldn't help myself, even though I tend to think the 's' updates are the ones to get. Barring calamity, I should have no problem holding onto it until the XIs (or whatever they end up calling it). Might need a new battery at the halfway point, but performance is pretty clearly leveling off, the camera is quite nice, and it's hard to imagine what new shiny tech they could add that would get me to buy a new phone in the next three years.
  • santoshalper 8y ago
    This doesn't make any sense and isn't backed by any evidence. Software purchased for either phone platform is entirely device independent. Why would longer hardware purchase cycles impact software sales either way? I don't think there is any correlation here at all. Analysts aren't making this up. Apple's financials have been stagnant because they can't get people excited about new devices. It's not unique to Apple either, new smartphones just aren't that interesting anymore.
    • zepto 8y ago
      Apple’s financials aren’t stagnant. They have been growing until this quarter and have taken a hit because of the Chinese economy. It may be peak iPhone nonetheless, which is why extending device life is strategic. Their services income is growing year over year. They have multiple line of adjunct devices that are growing year over year. I said nothing about software sales. New services mean delivering software. The more clients you can address, the better. Do a few google searches to confirm these statements. Everything I’ve said here is fact. I’m sorry this doesn’t make sense to you.
    • 8y ago
• Animats 8y ago
  There's no next big thing in the pipeline. And everybody already has a smartphone.
  • arketyp 8y ago
    Now is the time for the cloud I think. Phones are pretty much laptops and laptops have replaced desktops, heavy tasks are more often outsourced. When the hardware is interchangeable (and that includes the next version of the iPhone) that's when the demand for the cloud will be heard. Before it was a convenience, now it's an exigent matter of not being able to keep things apart. Up until now, devices have been objects of treasure and identification. When what your machine does is taken for granted, something else will have to replace it as your personal hearth keeping you warm at night. I agree that there is no next big thing. But there is a next big "thing".
    • hn_throwaway_99 8y ago
      Umm, huh? No offense but this looks like a game of buzzword bingo. "Now is the time for the cloud I think." How does "the cloud" have anything to do with the rest of what you've written?
      • Animats 8y ago
        Also, Amazon AWS opened in 2006. The first iPhone shipped in 2007. "The Cloud" has been around for a while.
• hnruss 8y ago
  As a software developer, people tend to assume that I’m really into hardware as well. They’re usually surprised when I tell them that I prefer to buy older hardware and keep it running for longer. I often skip multiple generations of devices. I just bought a new TV with Roku built in. My last TV was a tube TV. I’m writing this on a iPhone SE, which I upgraded to for $100 when my 5S stopped working. I kept the same phone case. I’ll probably buy another iPhone when they release a new one with the same size screen. I might get a new phone case then, too. I was playing Zelda on the original Wii earlier. It’s the newest game console that I own. Don’t get me wrong, I think new stuff is cool, too. I’d just rather go on a trip than have the newest cool thing.
  • skookumchuck 8y ago
    I use a separate Roku box from the TV so the TV can't spy on me with their frackin' microphone. I don't plug the TV into the internet. Haha, take that, N SA!
    • techsupporter 8y ago
      At least in the case of a Roku TV, it's the exact same Roku hardware just strapped onto the board of an off-the-shelf flat panel display. The only real difference is that the UI has selections for the TV's inputs. There's no microphone unless you use the phone app to yell at the TV or buy a different remote than the one supplied. That's why I have a Roku TV (well that, and I like the Roku software better) versus one of the other smart TVs. I'd have a Roku anyway so this just frees up an HDMI port.
  • a11595 8y ago
    I'm a little different, but same result. I buy the best thing out at the time, then use it till it dies. It's because it's a tool, and these modern tools take a while to set up, and that's a task. Had a nexus 6, rooted, custom rom with unneeded crap disabled. It died last year when I finally broke the screen. It was running fine, and the battery got me through the day w/o a top-off. I picked the max config pixel2xl for over thousand bucks, put a custom rom on it w/o google crap, and that's going to last me till it physically dies. My boss on the other hand, gets both the pixel and the iphone refresh every year, and fiddles with each for an hour each day for weeks. Screw that. End result though - both you and me aren't as good a customer as companies want - they want my boss. To address your point, which I cannot relate to. If money is the limiting factor and you still think the new stuff is cool - why not just buy a $200 phone every 3 years? the top of the line stuff is overpriced, but the margins are close to zero on everything else, and specs and features, at least for android, are pretty much the same.
• blt 8y ago
  Same thing happened with desktop PC's around when the Core 2 Duo came out and 1080p lcd displays became standard. The machines can do most of the stuff we want them to do.
• skilled 8y ago
  Oh no! Now you're giving companies the green light to produce shittier products so they need to be replaced sooner! I hope this marks the end of an era where people feel compelled to buy the 'latest and greatest' just because it's going to make them stand out in front of their friends.
• continuations 8y ago
  Cellphones have reached the state of performance surplus that desktops have reached years ago. There's simply no reason to upgrade. I'm still using the desktop I built in 2013 w i7-3770 & 32GB RAM for $600. There's been no reason to get a new one. As phones are becoming commodities like computers, I wonder if Apple will meet the same fate in mobile as it did in computers: being marginalized as a niche player in the market it pioneered as most people flock to the mainstream choice (Windows for computer, Android for phone)
  • burlesona 8y ago
    Apple is already in this position globally and has never been a majority even in the US. I think the difference is that the phone market is MUCH bigger, and combined with fragmentation issues across Android, that makes iPhone still a really attractive developer target. But also remember that Apple has never cared about dominating market share. They think of themselves like BMW or similar, they don’t care that not everyone buys Apple, they just want to make the “best” devices and to have happy customers.
    • hevi_jos 8y ago
      Apple has always cared about dominating market share. It gives them extreme negotiation power when dealing with suppliers, giving them a good price and quality. Apple usually is the first to choose the best quality components from dealers and the rest of manufacturers have to live with the left overs. In fact, Apple has dominated the portable music player for a long time. They also dominate the laptops market, making the biggest seller models of all the world. They make them in Aluminum(extremely expensive to make for small productions) and the big quantity they sell make extremely hard for others to compete. They dominate the smartphones also. Other manufacturers have more market share but divided in lots of models, and several manufacturers. The Ipads had been selling fro hundreds of millions per year. There is no sophisticated product in the world that have been sold at those massive numbers in the entire history of mankind. This is something that Steve Jobs understood very well. The current CEO was the boss of manufacturing for a long time, so he knows it. But if they continue raising prices, they will lose the mass production.
• irrational 8y ago
  My company pays for my phone. I can upgrade every 18 months. My latest upgrade date has come and gone, but I haven't bothered to do it since my current phone (iPhone 7 plus) still works as well as it did the first day I got it. The only reason I can foresee getting a new phone is if next year's iPhone includes a headphone jack. Now that would be an improvement worth getting.
  • heipei 8y ago
    Anecdotal, but I'm in the same position when it comes to my laptop update. I'm eligible to update my corporate MacBook every two years, but so far I'm still sticking with my 5-year-old MacBook Pro Retina (13") because none of the current options provide a clear benefit for me and the downside is potentially huge (no native Linux, unreliable keyboard, dongle-life). As long as the battery doesn't die on me I'll keep using this thing.
    • hliyan 8y ago
      Similar anecdote: still sticking to my 3 year old MacBook Pro despite being offered the new one because newer "innovations" actually subtract from my experience: no physical function keys or escape key, no regular USB or HDMI, insufficient haptic feedback from keyboard etc.
  • Markoff 8y ago
    why not upgrade and sell the phone? economically it doesn't make sense keeping the same phone if you can have free upgrade and stay with carrier anyway
    • irrational 8y ago
      I have to turn the phone into IT when I get a new one. It still belongs to the company since they bought it (and they pay for my unlimited data plan).
• jgalt212 8y ago
  I think 5G will cause a big bump if data plans are cheap enough to drop your home internet plan and just hotspot to your phone.
  • Jaruzel 8y ago
    I can barely get full speed 4G as I travel around the UK. Unless 5G is full-speed everywhere out of the gate, I can't see the point in upgrading just yet.
    • Lev1a 8y ago
      Since 5G reportedly has a rather small range, the cities/countryside probably would have to be littered with "hotspots"/"towers".
      • Jaruzel 8y ago
        I saw a thing, can't remember where, that some telecos are planning on turning 'manhole' covers into antennas and running the cables through sewers.
  • JustSomeNobody 8y ago
    5G phones will be more expensive and the first will likely be battery hogs. I’d definitely wait a couple generations.
  • asdff 8y ago
    This all assumes that carriers are incentivized to innovate.
• rawoke083600 8y ago
  Yup my latest upgrade from a SAMSUNG S5 (Great phone) was a ~$200 Xiaomi Redmi 5 Plus. Which i plan to keep for another 5 years or so.
  • djuralfc 8y ago
    I'm looking for a new phone, since I still use 5s, and I'm thinking of switching to Android. Xiaomi really caught my eye, good specs for great price. What's your experience been with it so far?
    • rawoke083600 8y ago
      Well im coming from an Android flagship(back in the day s5) and the xiaomi is brilliant ! Big screen super fast and well built. But the price is of course the best :)
    • nisa 8y ago
      Not the op I but got a Xiaomi Mi A2 Lite for ~180€ (64GB/4GB RAM) after my 4 years old Moto G had strange issues with the battery that even replacing the battery didn't solve: Could not be happier. Android One get's monthly updates from Google for the next 3 years, Feature Updates for 2 years. Clean and stable experience. I've read there are better cameras out there, however it's way better than the Moto G. Build quality is fine for me. I hope it will last 5 years.
• amanzi 8y ago
  The rate of perceivable changes has decreased over recent years while the price of flagships has increased substantially. I have a Galaxy S7 and it still works perfectly well for everything I need. The only issue with it is that I know Samsung won't be releasing Android Pie for this model, so I'll be forced into an upgrade if I want to stay on a current version.
  • lordnacho 8y ago
    Do you not find everything gets slower with each software update? This is the principal reason I dumped Samsung. Everything was working fine, then update, then brick.
• fipple 8y ago
  The vendors have thrived for a decade just by improving specs. We went from NTSC to 1080p to 4K and TV sizes from 27 inches to 55 inches. But now peoples eyes aren’t good enough and their houses aren’t big enough to need anymore. Same thing with phones. It used to be that an old phone felt slow compared to a new one. But now they’re fine for most uses. If companies want to sell devices they need new shit to sell. VR, AR is one possible avenue. Smart Home is another. But don’t expect me to just volunteer $1K for a slightly better version of what I already have.
  • hliyan 8y ago
    In the 90's phone manufacturers tried doubling down on one of the main selling features: size. I saw phones almost as small as a Zippo lighter on the market before the industry regained its sanity. Today we're similarly going to the extremes of screen size + thinness. I believe once the industry once again regains its sanity, we might see a new form factor: 1. Smaller, egg-shaped 'pods' that fit more comfortably in your palm and pocket, something along the lines of: http://www.yankodesign.com/2008/05/05/mobile-phone-shaped-like-and-egg-sorta/ http://www.yankodesign.com/2008/05/05/mobile-phone-shaped-li... 2. Thicker, but less dense and more durable (think Nokia 3310) 3. Some form of innovative physical scroll/click control on the edges of the device to alleviate thumb-scrolling (perhaps a pressure sensor with no moving parts) 4. Perhaps even a control on the rear side of the device, that can be activated with the index finger (for single handed operation)
    • eitland 8y ago
      Agree. I'm considering a 3310 class device plus a high end pad with a pen (one in the same price range as a reasonable phone) for when my current phone breaks. (Currently I'm on a Nokia 6.1 AndroidOne and except the camera it is really good and costed literally a fraction of other new phones. Considering the fact that my job pays my phone and it tells something about what I think about current flagship phones and prices.)
    • ClassyJacket 8y ago
      2, 3, and 4 all exist. Motorola Droid Turbo. Digital Crown on the Apple Watch. Oppo N1.
• J253 8y ago
  Smartphones are so refined these days that upgrading yearly or even every two years just doesn’t seem worth it to me if I’m paying full retail price for it. However, if the carrier companies still offered subsidized phones I’d be more than happy to upgrade for the subsidized price. It wasn’t until NEXT and all the similar “pay the full price over N months” plans came along that I stopped upgrading regularly. Seems like the burden of not upgrading has fallen back on the smartphone manufacturer, no? If I’m paying full price I’m either going to buy less often or look for a cheaper option.
  • xbmcuser 8y ago
    This was also one of the major reasons for apple getting such a large market share in the US. As people were not required to pay full price for the phones buying a $100 iphone or $50 android phone with contract didn't affect many people but paying $1000 or $500 will.
• renjimen 8y ago
  Well this is great news for the environment!
• techsin101 8y ago
  Been using Nexus 5x. $210. It does everything. Plays all videos. Charges fast. Id buy new phone if did one of the followings... A) had a battery that lasted a month. B) had free unlimited data. C) can 3d scan objects I'll not buy it if it has A) NSA 2.0 Alexa or ok Google always turned on B) reliance on Bluetooth. I've concerns about radiation effects. C) battery lasts one day
  • pan69 8y ago
    Mid last year I also upgraded to a 5X after my trusty Nexus 5 gave up on me (nearly 5 years I used that thing!). Super happy with the 5X. I'm simply not going to shell out $1000, or some other ridiculous amount of money, for a phone like some iPhone or Pixel thing.
  • JamesAdir 8y ago
    Can you explain the not buy (B)? You're not worried on radiation from the device mobile network but from the bluetooth?
  • wilsonnb3 8y ago
    A nexus 5x is a worse phone in every way than a modern flagship. I don’t understand the point of these comments as anything more than a dick-waving contest about who’s using the worse hardware on a daily basis.
• TheLuddite 8y ago
  Maybe they should offer more variety in design, usability, features and colours? There are no small new smartphones, there are no QWERTY phones, soon there will be no phones with headphone jacks...I'd love to have a QWERTY for business + small phone with nice camera and durable battery for travel combo.
  • nippoo 8y ago
    The Blackberry KEY2 sounds like exactly what you’re looking for!
• Domark 8y ago
  Cycles go up and down. Good luck trying to prevent that. Best to plan for downturns and upturns.
• thatoneuser 8y ago
  There’s no point in upgrading anymore aside from ditching the feeling that your phone is slow (which is likely fixed with a factory reset). Camera is infinitesimally better. Processor is better in a way you can’t measure. Oh now you can push anywhere to use your fingerprint! There’s no more cash cow cuz phones aren’t getting noticeably better. Get back to me when I can stop using my thumbs to type or when the world becomes my monitor. Maybe I sound entitled but some day the bullions these companies keep expecting has to be justified.
  • iClaudiusX 8y ago
    The thing that would get me excited about mobile devices is the ability to run my own programs and access a real file system like a general purpose computer. That would be a real improvement in capability along the lines of the first true smartphone with a touchscreen, browser, and GPS for turn-by-turn navigation.
    • tuukkah 8y ago
      Android is Linux: it has a real file system that you can access. You can run your own programs on it as well.
      • Jedi72 8y ago
        Running programs inside a sandbox is not what the OP is talking about. If you can't reinstall your own OS and get root permission* to talk to the hardware, you're not really in control of whats going on. *Im of course aware you can root Android phones and jailbreak iPhones, again this isnt what OP is talking about - they void warranties and are challenging/time consuming even for tech people.
        • v_lisivka 8y ago
          Some phones can be unblocked officially: https://motorola-global-portal.custhelp.com/app/standalone/bootloader/unlock-your-device-a https://motorola-global-portal.custhelp.com/app/standalone/b... However, I agree that OP is talking about document centered interface instead of application centered.
• roenxi 8y ago
  The Jobs-era strategy at Apple was pretty straightforward. From what I recall around 2000-2010 the Apple strategy was: 1) Decided on a minimum acceptable functionality for a device 2) Set up uncompromising logistics chains to support creating a device (eg, famously, touchscreens) 3) Price at a rate that was extremely competitive when considering the device components 4) Crush competitors who could only offer cheap goods that didn't really do what Apple's could, or expensive goods that could match functionality but not price - recall the iPad's original differentiation was it was cheaper than expected, given what it did. It looked very cheap compared to the preemptive tablet releases of the time trying to head its success off at the pass. They've made a lot of money over the last few years, but that strategy doesn't seem to match the modern Apple's approach. The price gap between an iPod Touch and the cheapest iPhone is not something I'd have expected of 2010 Apple. EDIT I looked for a source - https://www.videogamesblogger.com/2010/03/29/ipod-touch-vs-iphone-vs-ipad-comparison.htm https://www.videogamesblogger.com/2010/03/29/ipod-touch-vs-i... - initial iPhone was extremely comparable to an expensive iPod.
  • zozbot123 8y ago
    The original iPad was a potato. Came out with 256MB RAM in 2010 and could only run one app at a time. Sure, everything else about it was very good, but it was not cheap for what it could do. Like the iPod with "less space than a Nomad", haha.
  • saagarjha 8y ago
    > The price gap between an iPod Touch and the cheapest iPhone is not something I'd have expected of 2010 Apple. Just to confirm, up until a couple of months ago, the difference between the low-end iPod Touch and the cheapest iPhone was $150, and today this is $250. I don't recall there ever being a time that this was significantly lower.
• Havoc 8y ago
  Well Apple's pricing has increased dramatically while the devices haven't really gained any new game changer innovation. Thought I'd get a iphone X to replace my 7 but meh
  • votepaunchy 8y ago
    The iPhone X was released one year after the iPhone 7. Your anecdote is really not apropos as the manufacturers have never expected that users would upgrade every year.
  • tempodox 8y ago
    They did add Dongle Hell though, to an extent as yet unseen in the Appleverse.
• baybal2 8y ago
  Repost from a month ago; Very true, I'd say a downgrade is the trend. I saw like 10+ people deciding to switch from "superphones" down to mid-range models, and even dumbphones for their new phones. People who had ultrabooks, often try Atom based notebooks and sufraces. The key deciding factor for such people, I think, is having a good screen and bearable ergonomics (no microscopic keyboards, or batteries.) The data I have access to tell that the "big screen, small CPU," is the category with the biggest year on year growth. Atom based 14 and 15 inchers are selling like hot cookies. As a person working in the industry, I can say that's a very visible trend. People switch their devices more due to battery and physical wear than actual need for more features. In that respect, things got very "Japanised" in respect that Japanese cellphone makers are often making new models every season with no real changes other than cosmetic. Japan is also the only developed market where "dumbphones" ever saw few upwards trends in last 5 years.
• kashyapc 8y ago
  A proud owner of Nexus-5 for five years waves hi. It's still in top-notch condition; only had to replace the screen protector once, and did a small surgery to replace the "irreplaceable" battery. I keep telling my friends that I am planning to use this for 10 years. /me hopes that the fine community of LineageOS provides at least security patches for Nexus-5 for the upcoming five years.
  • vongomben 8y ago
    I assume you are using Lineageos on it. Are you using Gapps as well?
    • kashyapc 8y ago
      Afraid, I'm still in the process of switching to LineageOS :-( I am first doing my homework by reading related forums, etc. On the current Android OS, I don't use much of GApps. All the applications I use are: Keep 'notes', Maps, Google Translator, Spotify, LifeReminders, Dutch–English dictionary, an OTP generator, SMS, WhatsApp, Signal, Firefox, and from time-to-time the camera; that's it. No native email apps, no "social media" (I don't even have any accounts) or such. And of course, everything and everyone is on mute, except one person; so no notifications. From a recent IRC chat on #lineagos (on Freenode), folks there said I should be totally fine switching Nexus-5 to Lineage. I'm just being cautious before I pull the trigger.
  • zozbot123 8y ago
    Nexus 5 is expected to be the flagship device for PostmarketOS, running on a mainline kernel, even. So, it will be in very good shape for the foreseeable future, even after it's no longer able to run a supported version of Android. (Besides, I don't buy the notion that current phones are more expensive than in the past. A good baseline-to-midrange device, costing around $300, can do everything that the N5 could and more. The Xiaomi A line is very good, or you can pick Asus or BQ if you're concerned about Xiaomi being from China. Really, just pick something that's trivially unlocked and has good support by the modding community, and you're good to go.)
• DyslexicAtheist 8y ago
  had a samsung galaxy S4 until start of this year. I made a bet with myself and put it in a drawer where it remains until 2020. Then I'll decide if I really must have a mobile phone or not. I have reduced usage and removed all apps last year then started to leave it at home when going out since past Fall. This way it wasn't a total ice-bucket challenge. I haven't missed it for a moment yet. When I go out and wait for the bus or tram to arrive I look at other people, the clouds and my general environment. I am more calm again and it feels like everyone else glued to their screen is part of some matrix. They almost obsessively dig around their pockets quickly to find their phone as soon as they get on the bus in order to avoid eye-contact with everyone else at all cost. I remember how it was when I too did this it was like some kind of insecurity that my phone allowed me to escape. e.g. I pretend that I'm busy on my phone ... because there is a pretty girl on the other side and the last thing I want is to look at her ... if she'd notice me she would think I am a weirdo because I'm just sitting their without doing anything and even get the impression that I stare ... Or I get an uncomfortable vibe from somebody else on the bus and so quickly get my phone because the pretend-world in there feels just so much safer. It also shows the world that I do have a life and am not just a weirdo. Or does it? I remember going out w/out a phone last year and I was in a different city (and country). Asking a passerby on the road was the only option and he actually said to me why you don't just check google maps yourself. I told him sorry my battery is flat which seemed the only correct response without looking like a total weirdo. But these are outliers, in general I do just fine. The reason why I became militant about not having a phone was when I see my gf who is a hell of a lot younger than me and was pushed into using it by her own parents. They would freak out if she wasn't reachable for even a short time and so she always had one on her since the age of twelve. When I was 12 mobile phones didn't even exist and I owned my first phone when I was 22 (it was a Motorola brick phone and my employer gave it to me to stay in touch). I see a lot of the anxiety people complain about every day being rooted in phones and their capability to distract and steal our time (life's too short for this shit ... but then I'm just an old man shouting at the cloud).
• tanilama 8y ago
  iPhone is getting pricer with no good reason besides greed. It is time to tell Tim Cook enough is enough
  • matwood 8y ago
    > iPhone is getting pricer with no good reason besides greed. Except margins have remained the same. So while the iPhone prices have increased Apple is not making more money (given the increase in service revenue which is high margin it could be argued Apple is making even less margin on iPhones now). If there is any argument it is that Apple got too far out over their skis on things like the t2 chip and A12x.
    • tanilama 8y ago
      One simple fact is that when margin remains, and the price goes up, Apple's absolute revenue also goes up. They are charging more money from their user.
• DoubleGlazing 8y ago
  I used to work for a mobile phone wholesaler that also owned a phone repair business and they noticed this trend as far back as 2013. The age of phones coming in for repair was rising year on year. They were coming under pressure from manufacturers and retailers to disincentivise customers from repairing older phones. One manufacturer even threatened to stop paying for in-warranty repairs if the company offered an out-of-warranty repair service. The problem is that smartphones are way too expensive. Back in the old days of dumb phones a top end SIM free phone would cost no more than €400. Most people would opt for a cheaper model that allowed for a 12 months subsidy with the phone being free and monthly fees being fairly low by todays standards. In the UK it was common to find deals where you got a cheap phone for free, plus a game console or TV on a 12 month contract. Now it has flipped. Top end phones are now nudging €1000, this means higher monthly fees plus 24-36 month contracts. That's a hell of a commitment, especially considering smart phones aren't as durable as dumb phones were. Of course people are repairing phones when they cost that much. Plus, there is less of a feature incentive to upgrade. All I use my phone for is web browsing, email, social stuff and photo/video - it's three years old and does all that with no lag. New models don't offer me enough of an incentive to upgrade. If manufacturers want people to upgrade more often they need to work on curbing the price of top end models. The more expensive they are, the longer people are going to want them to last. Also, a bit more innovation would be nice - must every smartphone follow the exact same black rectangle design template?
  • franciscop 8y ago
    Exactly. I made a very good decision this time around; I wanted the cheapest phone that was fingerprint-protected and had USB Type-C, since I wanted it to last me several years and pin codes are painful. I got my current phone for 160€ (if I'm not mistaken) 1.5 years ago and I couldn't be happier. Browses the web perfectly and runs my few apps great, I'll keep it until it breaks. I'm so happy that I'm even considering buying an extra screen to have reparaibility in the future in case they are hard to find then! It's funny that many of my non-tech friends who spent half a month salary on an iPhone (Spain) are quite confused about me using a cheap android. Edit: also note that my 160€ phone now is way better than those 400€ phones 6-8 years ago. And there's not even that much difference with a current 800-1000€ phone.
• Tsubasachan 8y ago
  Not surprising at all. The same happened to PCs and laptops. At some point its good enough, only gamers need the latest Intel processor or nvidia GPU. So people stopped buying new computers until the old one broke.
• robin_reala 8y ago
  I’d love to update my 2012 MacBook Air as it is getting a little slow on some of the scripts I’d like to run. Unfortunately the 2018 MacBook Air is only 1/3rd faster for CPU (it dropped a power category), so there’s little point just yet. Maybe Apple will use their own CPUs in the near future which should give a nice boost, but for the time being I’ve just been hand-optimising the scripts instead.
  • itg 8y ago
    I had the same issue, but decided I'm not waiting on Apple, since the last few years have been a complete disappointment. Went with a dell xps and pretty happy with it. In fact, I've found myself moving away from Apple's ecosystem and once my iphone 6s needs to be replaced, I will probably move over android and be done with apple once and for all.
• Lev1a 8y ago
  Bought a Moto G4 in 2016, cracked the screen that early 2017, use it despite worsening screen burn-in. Finally decided to get a new phone (Motorola One), which is scheduled to arrive tomorrow. Will probably use that at least three years as well. I always wondered why I would buy an expensive "flagship" phone other than showing off? A "mid-range" one is entirely enough... - good camera for the few occasions I use that - Watching videos/streaming - Looking up stuff while on-the-go (when a laptop/tablet isn't available) - listening to music on inexpensive "conventional" headphones (F wireless headphones) which I can get new for cheap at almost any supermarket - If I wanted to I could use the dual-SIM-capability that both my current and my new phone have
• jonquark 8y ago
  I'm surprised that the comments don't focus much on security patches. Manufacturers are trying very hard to have built-in obsolescence: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/31/dutch_court_says_samsung_has_no_obligation_to_keep_old_phones_patched/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/31/dutch_court_says_sa... Unless this fundamentally changes, most non-techy users will have to needlessly upgrade perfectly good devices, run insecure software or become much more savvy about which manufacturers are better in this regard.
  • captainbland 8y ago
    I wonder if there's viable market in keeping old phones up to date, maybe as some kind of add-on to battery replacement services and such like. I'd guess it's probably too low value given the work involved, which is a shame.
    • tw04 8y ago
      There was - cyanogenmod. Then they got greedy, screwed most of their open source contributors, and were dumb enough to actually claim they were going to take out Android. End results was Google pulling more and more out of the base OS to prevent anyone from ever really forking android again, as well as cyanogenmod leadership screwing several OEM partners (oneplus in India), and they're basically dead now. The community is still there but it seems like it took a massive hit after that debacle.
      • zozbot123 8y ago
        These days, PostmarketOS is trying to support those older devices, and in a way that actually takes out Android! ...out of the device I mean, haha. But IIRC, most devices that CM used to run on, only had 512MB of RAM-- and that's honestly not enough to even browse the web on nowadays. (Many of them are also on earlier flavors of ARM that would be a bit harder to support natively, with e.g. Alpine having dropped support for anything earlier than ARM7.)
  • pjmlp 8y ago
    Because the large majority of the non-technical consumers doesn't care one second about them. In fact, I know many people that disable updates on their phones, because they are afraid of the apps not looking the same after an update takes place.
• mentos 8y ago
  I could use a windows phone that could Remote Desktop into my PC and be an extension of my PC experience. Could probably give me a mini tablet sized screen, just enough to fit in my jeans pocket but large enough to not require a new UI operating system, just a tweak to make icons and fonts larger.
• James_Owens_69 8y ago
  Not buying new crap unless they give me replacable battery and 16:9 screen.
• odiroot 8y ago
  I'm not surprised. Until I'm gonna a get a new model that is compact and has a headphone jack, fingerprint reader and SD card slot I'm not planning to ever change my device. The whole market went crazy in completely opposite direction than what the consumers want.
  • steelframe 8y ago
    I'm right there with you. My old 2015 Sony Xperia Z5 Compact still does the job just fine. Maybe just give me a camera update to something on-par with the 2017 Pixel 2, and that's all I want in a smartphone.
  • sosborn 8y ago
    > The whole market went crazy in completely opposite direction than what the consumers want. Did they? HN and other tech related comment boards are not representative of the general market. The people happy about the direction the market has moved aren't going to post threads about their satisfaction, they'll just gone on with their day.
• shaklee3 8y ago
  I've had my Nexus 6p for close to 3.5 years. The battery has started dying early recently, so I considered replacing the phone. But it's still plenty fast for me, and there's nothing I'd possibly get from an upgrade besides a better camera, so I just replaced the battery for $20. Works like new again, and hopefully lasts a couple more years.
• kobasa 8y ago
  Got a Xiaomi Redmi Note 5 a few months ago for around $180 and couldn't be happier. Big screen, crazy battery that lasts 2 days on heavy use, fingerprint unlock, fast and quite sleek look. I've even dropped it quite a bit (not cover, no screen protector) and not a scratch on the screen. What do people actually get for getting something at 5x the price? Notchless design, maybe better camera, and can't really think of anything else. Phones IMO are transitioning from a functional item to a status item (maybe similar to watches). At least that's the angle I'd be taking if I was a high end phone manufacturer...
• dimva 8y ago
  I would gladly buy a new phone if they stopped taking away features. I currently use an iPhone SE, and I treat my phone as an extension of my brain - I use it 5 hours / day. For me, the pros/cons of an upgrade to an iPhone XS are: Pros: better camera, faster processor, water resistant Cons: no headphone jack, too large for my hands It's not obvious that upgrading would make my life better - it's more likely to make things worse, actually. I'm not paying $1000 for that.
  • ianai 8y ago
    They’re also making phones that are less comfortable to hold. But taking away the headphone jack is a non-starter for me. The FaceID “only” thing is a deal breaker for professional reasons. I also can’t stand the notch. They clearly don’t like the notch, either, since they hide it in all of their marketing. I’d rather they removed the selfie camera and relocate the speaker to the top of the phone. Love my SE. The size is crazy portable. It’s even a little too thin for my comfort. But it’s so thin that a battery case isn’t a problem.
    • hashmymustache 8y ago
      In the SE boat as well. Great chassis - durable and fits in small pockets. Wish they'd keep squeezing newer gen parts into it. Every time someone sees it they're astounded at its tiny size, but I have no trouble reading on it.
      • ianai 8y ago
        I’ve had male relatives comment on the size of my phone like it’s an extension of my ego. Totally bizarre. I think it’d be awesome to have the same form factor with an actual edge to edge display.
        • tuesdayrain 8y ago
          That's bizarre. I have a feeling that anyone who would make that connection and feel the need to say it out loud is projecting their own insecurities.
• buboard 8y ago
  TBH i m surprised it lasted that long. The diminishing returns started long time ago, and practically it is the OS upgrades slowing down old phones, and drained batteries that drive the upgrades. Apart from the tech crowd, ppl don't care if their phone makes marginally better photos , as long as it makes them good enough to post to facebook. Same thing with laptops. I ve been wanting to give myself a new thinkpad as christmas gift , but i just couldnt justify upgrading from an i7-5600 . Which means, a lot of people are setting aside money that they would spend for their yearly phone upgrade, for the next seductive product. This could be a good opportunity for novel stuff.
• jader201 8y ago
  I keep seeing article after article talking about to slow down of buying phones, but I’ve never seen any mention of the main reason I stopped buying phones every year: They stopped subsidizing them. For a while, most carriers (at least AT&T with iPhones) would include a phone with a two year contract as part of your monthly bill. But about 3 or 4 years ago, they stopped doing this. And so people had no incentive to renew every time they were eligible. Everybody I’m close to stopped for this reason. Now they only renew now when they have to, or when there’s a really compelling reason to. And any more, both of these are becoming less and less of a need. Why has nobody talked about this?
  • petersellers 8y ago
    I don’t think “subsidizing” is the right word as the customer still had to pay for the full price of the phone. The carrier would just spread out the cost of half of the phone across a 2 year period. Nowadays (at least for Verizon) you can get a phone for nothing upfront and have the entire cost spread out over a 2 year period. Basically the same as before except it requires nothing down instead of half the phone value. If anything I feel this method is more likely to get people to sign up as it requires nothing upfront.
    • jader201 8y ago
      If I remember correctly, the “fee” they charged for the phone was charged regardless of whether or not you renewed. I remember doing the math multiple times each year, and there was never a reason to not renew, unless you planned on changing carriers.
  • wmf 8y ago
    Mostly because the media's memory extends back a year at most. But there seems to be an additional slowdown in addition to the one caused by the end of carrier subsidies.
• ohiovr 8y ago
  The Original telephone company bell telephone, didn’t sell phones they rented them. Wiki says it was crucial to their survival in the early days. Not saying I want to lease my phone but it seems a lot of people are willing to lease cars and shop at rent to own stores. Include service as an mvno and might be viable as a business.
• chriselles 8y ago
  Is the lenghtening replacement cycle on mobile phones identical to the lengthening replacement cycle on PC’s from a generation ago? I recall in the early days of PCs software drove(compelled?) PC hardware upgrades every 2 or so years. Then hardware upgrades became unnecessary unless you were a hardcore gamer. Wouldn’t the same hardware/software relationship apply with mobile phone hardware? What’s the next compelling value proposition? Will a next generation AI/ML Assistant compel a hardware upgrade in terms of an AI focused chipset or additional sensors for data collection? Is there anything in the Chinese WeChat ecosystem that compels mobile hardware upgrades? How else can human vanity in terms of mobile hardware/software be exploited?
• honkycat 8y ago
  They don't offer any new features that are desirable. The voice assistants are a flop, not nearly good enogh. I miss my headphone jack a little. I wish I could get a blackberry style physical keyboard. As much as the iPhone vs Android debate continues to rage, they basically do the same things.
• noobiemcfoob 8y ago
  Which they'll do until software picks up the slack and demonstrates a real need for advancement or integration of new features. Phones are so underutilized today it is painful.
• atiredturte 8y ago
  I owned a samsung s8 for a while, purchased it for about $700 brand new just when it came out. Since it followed the new trend of having everything be glass, and I am a clumsy person, it ended up breaking. Repairing it would have cost be about $400, and second hand s8s go for around that rate. It simply didn't make sense to repair it and sell it, or even to repair it at all really. I ended up purchasing a second hand Pixel XL (1st version) for $180. It has lasted me incredibly well, and I've had hardly any problems. The phone is durable, has a headphone jack, and a fantastic camera. It seems that most phone hardware now has reached the point of being more than good enough. The only real bottle neck for many devices is software. My Samsung phones, with their bloated skins, always seemed to age quite quickly. When the software experience is finely tuned and bloat removed, then phones seem to last indefinitely.
• notacoward 8y ago
  One factor I haven't seen mentioned is that moving everything to a new phone is a bit of a risk and a pain. Reinstalling apps, reestablishing connections and credentials, manually moving the stuff that inevitably got missed, getting a new case. Bleh. If I have to spend my money and my time, there has to be more than a sliver of payback, but a sliver is usually all that's offered. Forget it. In another few months my work phone will be up for replacement, and TBH I'm not looking forward to it. Just another damn forced "upgrade" to steal away my time for no real gain.
• rajacombinator 8y ago
  So fewer incremental spec improvements, plus major incremental price increases and major UX regressions is a losing recipe. Who woulda thunk it!
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