ddp26

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121.
Apple's plan to power Siri with ChatGPT was a predictable failure(futuresearch.ai)
15 points by ddp26 2y ago|1 comments
122.
OpenAI Deep Research – Six Strange Failures(futuresearch.ai)
8 points by ddp26 2y ago|0 comments
123.
by ddp26 2y ago
FutureSearch | Software Engineer, Research Engineer, Research Scientist | Full Remote (global) | Full-time FutureSearch ( https://futuresearch.ai ) is a seed-stage startup building AI systems that reason about the future reliably.
124.
by ddp26 2y ago
Yeah, that's right. Though one could fantasize about a corporate prediction market where people are betting part of their yearly bonuses...
125.
by ddp26 2y ago
Yes, this example does illustrate this point. As I acknowledge later in the article: > This turns out to be a general lesson from running a corporate prediction market. Forecasting internal progress, and acting on that information, requi
126.
by ddp26 2y ago
Not quite. From the article: > As Prophit had done, I got approval to pay out valuable prizes to complement the play-money leaderboards. Some traders won things like iPads, and similar rewards that even highly paid tech employees conside
127.
by ddp26 2y ago
That's very kind of you to ask. My personal blog is defunct (for now!). But some of my recent writings can be found on the research page [1] of my startup, FutureSearch. We're building an AI that can forecast accurately. We'v
128.
by ddp26 2y ago
(Author here.) This is generally checked via calibration charts, e.g. bucketing markets at various points in time into 0-5%, 5-10%, etc; then counting how often the underlying events actually happen. The more they match, the more it's
129.
by ddp26 2y ago
(Author here) Yeah, good feedback, I think I overstated this in the article. It would have better to say Google popularized these practices rather than pioneered them. Or at least, that these practices became much more widespread among te
130.
by ddp26 2y ago
(Author here). > To rise above the simple wisdom of the crowds, you would want to identify the subset of market participants that are constantly beating the market (because they have a more accurate mental model of the world). Identifyin
131.
by ddp26 2y ago
(Author here) It's complicated :-). I will say: it's hard to define "gambling" in the corporate setting. Is it gambling to do an extra project in hope of getting a "Spot Bonus" (~$250-$1000) in recognition? Tha
132.
by ddp26 2y ago
(Author here.) I agree with this critique in theory, but not in practice. The stakes don't need to be high to encourage strong participation. Corporate prediction markets have already scaled quite far, and those who have studied them d
133.
by ddp26 2y ago
My vercel-hosted site is partially down. Many pages are 400. Others work.
134.
by ddp26 2y ago
Both but here I meant per-project.
135.
by ddp26 2y ago
I worked in Area120 and then at Waymo, in the X building, and saw lots of the other X projects. They built some jaw-dropping stuff. It's tempting to talk about structural problems, incentives, the dynamic between search ads & &quot
136.
by ddp26 2y ago
I looked [1] at all the prominent whistleblowers in the last ~50 years, and while some people have been seriously harassed and felt their lives were in danger, there's only a single case where someone was plausibly murdered by a privat
137.
by ddp26 2y ago
For those who only read the headline, LLMs can in fact do advanced probabilistic reasoning, when given the right tooling. This article is talking about their ability to act as a RNG. One interesting thing I've found in building an AI f
138.
by ddp26 2y ago
These conclusions are mine, based on research the AI did. None of these probabilities were directly output, it simply found lots of news articles, made simple models, researched what people have said & done historically.
139.
by ddp26 2y ago
I did some AI-assisted research on this, and have come to the following tentative conclusions: 1. The re-scheduling will happen (90%), the administrative hurdles will be cleared. Only counterexample I could find was Kratom in 2016, which wa
140.
by ddp26 2y ago
Maybe. Steve Mnuchin said he wants to partner with an AI company to replicate it. The CCP might prevent ByteDance from licensing it?
141.
by ddp26 2y ago
I looked into this, and here's what I think will happen [copied from another thread where I posted this]: - ByteDance will challenge the ruling in court (>95%), but they will lose (80%) - They then will succeed in selling Tik
142.
Biden signs TikTok ban – what will happen next?(github.com)
9 points by ddp26 2y ago|0 comments
143.
by ddp26 2y ago
FYI, I used a tool I develop [1] to look into this, and came to the following conclusions: - Biden will sign the bill (>95%) - The Commerce Secretary will start the 12 month clock (>95%) - TikTok will challenge the ruling (&
144.
Show HN: FutureSearch – answer hard questions like "Who will buy TikTok US?"
22 points by ddp26 2y ago|3 comments
145.
by ddp26 2y ago
Looks great Simon! Do you have any anecdotes of journalists using the techniques in this demo in news pieces we can read?
146.
by ddp26 3y ago
FutureSearch ( https://futuresearch.ai ) | Full Remote | Full-Stack Eng / Research Eng / Research Scientist FutureSearch gives unbiased, deeply-researched answers to hard questions about the world, and always gives a con
147.
by ddp26 3y ago
Striking visualization, makes me wonder: can this density of satellite coverage meaningfully change how earth appears to an alien civilization many lightyears away, in a way that coverage by 1% or 10% as many satellites over the last ~50 ye
148.
by ddp26 3y ago
> I don't pay for ChatGPT Plus, I only have a paid API key so I used instead a command line client, chatgpt-cli and manually ran the output programs. But this is much different, and likely much worse, than paid ChatGPT. Code Interpr
149.
by ddp26 3y ago
Now down to 19%. Starting to stabilize, at 143 forecasters.
150.
by ddp26 3y ago
Metaculus launched a Quarterly Cup [1] this month, running new forecasting questions on current events every few days, all resolving within a week to a few months. It's a great, low-stakes way to get your feet wet with forecasting, get

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