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FYI, I used a tool I develop [1] to look into this, and came to the following conclusions: - Biden will sign the bill (>95%) - The Commerce Secretary will
by ddp26 2y ago
FYI, I used a tool I develop [1] to look into this, and came to the following conclusions:
- Biden will sign the bill (>95%)
- The Commerce Secretary will start the 12 month clock (>95%)
- TikTok will challenge the ruling (>95%), which may delay the clock starting to delist or divest, but they are unlikely to win (20%)
- And if they lose, they will succeed in selling to a US company (75%)
- The sale will be for $30-50B (CI 50%), assuming it does not include certain ByteDance IP
- Walmart and Oracle won’t compete to buy it this time. Microsoft or Amazon are the top contenders, along with a consortium led by Susquehanna or Steven Mnuchin, possibly in partnership with Snap or X.
[1] I made a separate Show HN thread about the tool, FutureSearch, at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40140710 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40140710
- klyrs 2y agoI'll agree that Walmart seems an unlikely candidate.
- greenavocado 2y agoThe destination of the forced sale will be a large company with strong ties to the CIA
- nebula8804 2y agoCan you run a prediction on how the content on Tiktok will change in the coming 12 months or if Bytedance does indeed sell to this consortium? Will it start to lean towards the nonsense we are seeing with Meta platforms? (Limiting Pro-Palestinian voices, boosting Pro-Israel content).