ddp26

12 ms·

151.
by ddp26 3y ago
Hug of death is fixed, even this modest traffic was too much for our cache. | 90% chance of near term "human level" AI but only a 75% chance someone tries to influence the US election with "AI driven misinformation" whic
152.
The future of AI according to thousands of forecasters(metaculus.com)
93 points by ddp26 3y ago|81 comments
153.
by ddp26 3y ago
Setting aside value judgments on whether this is a good idea or not, it's odd how nonspecific this blog post is. Metaculus has some probabilities [1] of what kind of regulation might actually happen by ~2024-2026, e.g. requiring disclo
154.
Visualizing AI Discourse on Twitter(talktothe.city)
1 points by ddp26 3y ago|1 comments
155.
by ddp26 3y ago
Writeup at https://ai.objectives.institute/blog/mapping-the-discourse-o...
156.
Metaculus Introduces Conditional Probability Forecasting(lesswrong.com)
7 points by ddp26 4y ago|0 comments
157.
by ddp26 4y ago
Metaculus estimates [1] that Bing's marketshare will rise from 3.03% on Jan 15 to 4.07% by Dec 31, 2023, and it's trending up slightly as Microsoft's plans become more concrete. [1] https://www.metaculus.com/q
158.
by ddp26 4y ago
From speaking with folks who worked in Area120, one underappreciated benefit to having an inhouse incubator in a conglomerate is that ambitious folks will go there instead of leaving for a startup. Then they get "acquired" back in
159.
by ddp26 4y ago
Obligatory: predictions with (good) track records! https://www.metaculus.com/project/2018/
160.
by ddp26 4y ago
Metaculus | Frontend, Fullstack Software Engineer (& others) | Full Time | Remote (US) https://apply.workable.com/metaculus/ We’re rapidly scaling up the Metaculus (www.metaculus.com) forecasting platform to suppor
161.
by ddp26 4y ago
I don't think there is much of a business model :-). So far Metaculus has been producing public goods, and I don' think they've ever charged anyone for a forecast of any kind.
162.
Metaculus hits 1M predictions and becomes a Public Benefit Corporation(twitter.com)
3 points by ddp26 4y ago|3 comments
163.
by ddp26 4y ago
Very interesting launch, congrats and good luck! Anecdotally, I've struggled with inflammation (joint pain, needing lots of NSAIDs, adult-onset food allergies), but my C Reactive Protein levels were normal when tested. Have you conside
164.
by ddp26 4y ago
Good luck to the crypto prediction markets, we need them more than ever now. https://polymarket.com/
165.
by ddp26 4y ago
This could be due to this functionality moving to the Google Assistant. If you have a Pixel phone, you can have two "Google search bars". I have one at the top of my homescreen (Google Search) and one at the bottom (Google Assista
166.
by ddp26 5y ago
I'm curious too, as there were some early LessWrong folks working there, IIRC. I used to walk by their office in Mountain View. This article discusses what went wrong with their finances, but doesn't discuss what happened with the
167.
by ddp26 5y ago
Oh, my mistake, thanks!
168.
by ddp26 5y ago
Nit: It can be misleading to show cumulative metrics. You have to mentally take the first derivative. And cumulative metrics never go down! (Guilty of this myself.) I'd prefer if the chart at the top were daily/monthly queries. Th
169.
Prediction Markets in the Corporate Setting(forum.effectivealtruism.org)
1 points by ddp26 5y ago|0 comments
170.
by ddp26 5y ago
Yeah, fair points. You could imagine trying: (1) Ask "Will Google+ institute a real name policy by X date"? [This may not be useful to know.] (2) Ask "How many users will Google+ have on X date with a real name policy?"
171.
by ddp26 5y ago
[Disclaimer: I work on Gleangen at Google, opinions my own. Also, I wrote part of this in a comment on the blog.] I agree that insider concerns are a problem, but I think there's a very large space for questions that, as Hal Varian say
172.
by ddp26 5y ago
See also Scott Alexander's comments on this, https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-let-me-g... Edit: it's a separate HN post, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29642210
173.
by ddp26 5y ago
Paper on Google's first prediction market, from 2005-2007: http://static.googleusercontent.com/media/services.google.co...
174.
10k Google employees participate in new prediction market(twitter.com)
6 points by ddp26 5y ago|1 comments
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Google's Second Prediction Market(cloud.google.com)
2 points by ddp26 5y ago|0 comments
176.
by ddp26 5y ago
I made a small amount too, with a much smaller amount of effort :-). Very promising initial study on forecasting scientific replications with a prediction market.
177.
by ddp26 5y ago
Agree, it's perplexing that Waymo thinks it makes more sense to start mapping out NYC rather than making the product work in Phoenix or SF. You could interpret this as confidence, i.e. they're so close to a working service in Phoe
178.
by ddp26 5y ago
The reported disengage rate has improved a lot, but Waymo only reports disengagements it classifies as "related to safety", based on proprietary analysis and counterfactual simulations it does not share.
179.
by ddp26 5y ago
Are you opposed to futures markets for commodities, currencies, stock prices, etc. on the same grounds? Sometimes I think opposition to prediction markets is just opposition to markets in general, which is fine, but a very broad critique.
180.
by ddp26 5y ago
| A lot prediction markets suffer from the fact that volatility in them is limited and that the outcome is not of interest to many people +1. This is why I'm more interested these days in prediction markets within (large) institutions,

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