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What if the Hormuz closure will not be brief?
- onecommentman 7mo ago[flagged]
- kdheiwns 7mo agoTaiwan, Japan, and Korea import the vast majority of their fuel from that region. If any of those three countries run out of fuel, the impacts would be larger than if any single Western European country lost energy. The world as a whole depends on tech manufactured in this countries, and we're already in a pinch with AI slop companies buying up global supplies of components for the whole year. If LCD/OLED screen factories are shut down for even a few weeks, that will have massive rippling effects across the world. And if TSMC needs to turn off its factories, it will be absolutely disastrous.
- asacrowflies 7mo ago[flagged]
- 01100011 7mo agoSome countries are more prepared than others. Vietnam, who now handles a lot of mfg moved from China, has reserves measured in days. Yes, some countries have a couple months. I don't know the stats for nat gas though, and that could be better or worse. Petrochemicals are a big part of the world economy. Energy is needed to get workers to work, factories to run, and ships to move. This could slow goods production on par with covid. Forward looking financial markets which, by and large, failed to predict this will likely overreact as well. If the private credit bubble bursts coincident with market panic we could see a major financial crisis (maybe not GFC, but big). It's a big price just to cover up the Epstein Files...
- mkoubaa 7mo agoDelusional levels of cope
- dzink 7mo agoPutin’s war ambitions profit most from the scare around Hormuz. His sanctions get removed to provide alternative supply, he can charge exorbitant prices, and he gets leverage. Since he is also providing targeting information for Iran to shoot at, it feels like this is an avatar joystick war for him to distract from his Ukraine disaster.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- Qwertious 7mo agoPutin mainly benefits from the increased price of oil - black-market oil prices are a discount relative to standard-market oil, so he'll have a much healthier budget, even if his sanctions stay "airtight". China benefits here - they import Russian crude oil over land, so their costs won't increase as much as the international market (unless Russia uses the leverage to absorb all the benefit, which I doubt), but more crucially: the alternative to oil fuel is renewables, and China dominates renewables so a spike in demand for solar/batteries will be a godsend for them.
- vkou 7mo ago> China benefits here - they import Russian crude oil over land, No, they don't. 54% of their oil comes from the middle east. Only 20% comes from Russia. China does have a healthy oil reserve at the moment, so this may be marginally less bad for them. And yes, their electricity comes from renewables, but like in any other country, all of their logistics run on diesel. By starting this war, the United States, unsatisfied with flipping the table on bilateral trade with other countries just flipped the table on multipolar international trade. What a time to be alive.
- bryanlarsen 7mo agoMost of their trains are electric, and 50% of semi tractors sold in 2025 were electric. Lots of their logistics run without diesel.
- Animats 7mo agoIt's not a big threat to the US. The US is a net oil exporter, has the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and, if absolutely necessary, Trump could make up with Canada so those oil imports restart. Taiwan, Japan, and Korea, though - totally dependent on imports for oil. Something that most pundits have missed: unlike all other US wars since Korea, the US can't end this war by pulling out. Iran, unlike all US combat opponents from Vietnam to Venezuela, has the demonstrated ability to strike well beyond its borders. This war isn't over until both sides say it's over.
- reliabilityguy 7mo ago> has the demonstrated ability to strike well beyond its borders. Yep, now if IR survives, I see no reason for them not to double down on even longer range missiles. Like, why not?
- UltraSane 7mo agoEventually the world will get so fed up with them they WILL invade.
- bpodgursky 7mo agoFrankly this whole thing is worth it if it scares Taiwan and Japan into building new nuclear capacity. Taiwan has been suicidally turning off nuclear generation for a decade despite it being the last country on earth that wants to rely on naval imports of essential goods.
- foota 7mo agoCould it be because nuclear is highly centralized? I would expect that something like solar/wind power would be better for decentralization (in a war). Even if you don't blow up a nuclear plant, it seems like cutting the power from one would be relatively easy.
- bpodgursky 7mo agoRussia has refrained from hitting Ukraine's nuclear plants directly, and Ukraine has more or less kept them connected to the grid (albeit with nonstop repair efforts). Transformer substations are more vulnerable targets but it's hard to be decentralized enough to not have those.
- LAC-Tech 7mo agoMy predictions for the end of this war: - The USA eventually declares some arbitrary "victory" condition. - Iran will be left even poorer, and much less able to defend itself conventionally, but will remain under the same regime. Very likely they give up cooperating with atomic energy inspectors and do what North Korea did to a acquire weapons. - Israel's ability to dictate US foreign and military policy will be degraded long term. What many commentators do not see is how anti-Israel younger consevatives trend in the US now. It will be decades or before a serious anti-Israel republican candidate will be fielded, but it is inevitable, and even your typical greatest-ally-wall-kissers will have to moderate themselves. Will be very interesting to see what the mid terms bring. Some on the American right are already talking about voting democrat to protest - MAGA was specifically sold to them as an antidote to necon middle eatern entanglements.
- nradov 7mo agoIran won't be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. North Korea was under China's protection but no one is going to protect Iran. The USA, Israel, and maybe some of the Gulf states will continue occasionally "mowing the grass" whenever the threat level increases. (I'm not claiming that this is a good scenario, just a likely one.)
- bulbar 7mo ago[flagged]
- LAC-Tech 7mo agoAside from the fact that the Iranian Regime never said that...why exactly should westerners care about the fate of Israel? I know they think they are special, but to me they are just another West Asian country. I have zero reason to support them over Yemen, Lebanon, Iran, or any other state. Arguably I have more reason to resent them, considering how much money and blood we have spent furthering their cause and how ungrateful they are in return. No Mullah ever called me "goy".
- standeven 7mo agoChina’s move toward solar and wind seems more prescient than ever.
- 0wis 7mo agoEU rollback on reducing gas liability, especially the widely debated rule on « no gas car after 2030 », feels now laughable. Maybe the reason why « technocrats » are good rulers is because they use science and data to do it.
- cyber_kinetist 7mo agoThe problem with the EU is that now they depend on rare earth minerals / solar panels / etc. for their infrastructure, which means more dependency on China. However, as the war unfolds, I bet the EU will certainly want to cozy up more with China than whatever the hell that is the Middle East and the US (and hell no they don't want to depend on Russia either!)
- Hikikomori 7mo agoChina is looking pretty good compared to the alternative.
- dzink 7mo agoRare earth minerals are often all over the place, they are just very messy to get to and that gets in the way of EU pollution regulations. China is not a sole producer - they are just cheap enough to make mining elsewhere not worth the hassle. That will change fast if they bottleneck the supply.
- danaris 7mo agoAnd once enough panels start nearing the end of their lifetime, it's likely that we should be able to recover nearly all the rare earth minerals from them with proper recycling. They don't actually get used up the way, say, fossil fuels do.
- zmmmmm 7mo agoI think the real threat is that if you tip the Iranian conflict over into asymmetrical warfare, then nobody can stop it - ever. It seems to be almost the intent with the US and Israel especially announcing explicit intent to keep removing anybody who attempts to form a system of government. So you'll have a permanently aggrieved population with nothing to lose saturated with know-how and materials for building missiles and drones who will just keep taking pot shots at ships and possibly commercial airliners. They don't have to "close" the straight - just make it hazardous enough that it becomes permanently very risky to sail through there. They can go dormant for 3 months and then send 30 drones at a single ship. I'm not sure who in the strategic planning decided that no system of government for 90 million people was a good idea, but it seems quite insane to me.
- Jordan-117 7mo agoIn fairness to the Trump administration, they did have several acceptable candidates in mind for a transitional government. They just accidentally killed them all. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/world/middleeast/iranian-leaders-trum.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/world/middleeast/iranian-...
- mkoubaa 7mo agoActually it was the other party in the war that killed them all
- pfannkuchen 7mo agoAnd they happen to have a different set of interests, which they may choose to follow over shared interests.
- queenkjuul 7mo agoIn fairness i don't really believe them, i don't think anyone in the Iranian line of succession would've worked with the US.
- throwaw12 7mo ago
- DrProtic 7mo agoTrump announced yesterday they will murder anyone who takes leadership. They don’t want it opened, they want China and India to suffer while establishing themselves as alternative energy supplier. US itself has huge reserves, and recent move with Venecuela further expands it. Middle East countries are too blind to see it, they’re being thrown under the bus to hurt Iran.
- thisislife2 7mo agoYes, a decade or two down the lane, all of middle-east will regret that they didn't do anything to check the US backed Israeli aggression in their region. The lack of political foresight and political will is really astounding (and surprising). And this is after the US Ambassador to Israel openly said that Israel has the "Biblical right" to all of middle-east, and the US is fine with that!
- jaybrendansmith 7mo agoThis is all a double bluff to solve Global Warming. Make it impossible to trade oil, everyone will be forced to switch to solar and wind.
- entwife 7mo agoYes, doubling the price of oil, and setting random maybe-not-enforceable tariffs and embargoes, is a net positive because it has the unintended effect of reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
- widenitnow 7mo agoThey could always widen the straight...
- whattheheckheck 7mo agoThey could nuke both sides and make it bigger?
- jiggawatts 7mo agoAs a “bonus”, all the dust blown into the stratosphere by the nukes would also conveniently cool the Earth!
- cosmicgadget 7mo agoSeems like tankers passing through the straits will always be at risk so long as the IRGC (or any irregular faction) remains intact with access to drones. Seems like the only options are reaching a deal with whatever the new regime is or occupying the coastal areas.
- alwayspossible 7mo agoSeems to me that a conglomerate of oil companies could have funded a canal and reduce this risk a long time ago. Just around this choke point in global logistics.
- thatmiddleway 7mo agoI think scarcity and price spikes are a feature not a bug.
- jazzyjackson 7mo agoMy favorite conspiracy so far is the Qataris would like Iranian production to be destroyed because they drink the same milkshake Good thing the Qataris have no influence over the American president /s
- pfannkuchen 7mo agoThe Qataris wouldn’t even have to have direct influence if they more are likely to be long term friendly. I hadn’t heard this before, it would actually make a lot of sense and wouldn’t even really be a conspiracy theory just a theory (unless we consider anything multiple people in government do together to be a conspiracy).
- pibaker 7mo agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hajar_Mountains https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hajar_Mountains "Just" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.
- pseudohadamard 7mo agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Plowshare https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Plowshare They could cover some of the costs by running selfie trips to the Wadi Jizz.
- Recurecur 7mo agoIt actually doesn’t look too bad if the canal ran on the west side of the mountains… One hopes that will be a moot point once the Islamists fall in Iran.
- void_ai_2026 7mo ago[flagged]
- thephyber 7mo agoPaul Warburg on YouTube is a geopolitical analyst. His video from this weekend[1] walks through the many reasons why the energy market is resilient and adjusts to issues like Hormuz being temporarily impassable, ship insurance risk, the geopolitical uncertainty of Iranian leadership, the price of oil/gas and how changes in the supply/demand curve cause other wells elsewhere in the world to take up the slack, etc. [1] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2rgVaTofGQU https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2rgVaTofGQU
- treebeard901 7mo agoClosing the strait of Hormuz is worse for Iran and China than anyone else. Natural gas to Europe but not as big of an issue compared to Russian energy supplies. The Saudis and others have pipelines to bypass the strait. Many countries who sell oil obviously benefit from the increased price. I'd almost see how the U.S., Russia, Saudis and even the current administration in Venezuela would be fine with the oil price increase if Irans supply is taken off the market for a long time.
- subscribed 7mo agoIt's not just oil. It's food for all the states in the area and it's 11% of the global trade: https://theconversation.com/strait-of-hormuz-gulf-states-food-security-is-at-immediate-risk-but-wider-shortages-could-push-up-consumer-prices-globally-277214 https://theconversation.com/strait-of-hormuz-gulf-states-foo...