18 ms·

The Great Unwind

324 points by jart 8mo ago

caust1c 8mo ago
I watched this video yesterday corroborating this story and I gotta say the evidence is pretty hard to refute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ws8Grsc4jU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ws8Grsc4jU Purposefully devaluing the dollar to make US goods more globally marketable and hide the Japanese debt crisis is an interesting but risky strategy. Currently, I'm glad to see a correction without panic, but it's too early to make a call on the effect on the overall global economy. Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy.
- rednafi 8mo ago
  > Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy. I wonder why you’re worried. Regime’s change all the time. From a third party perspective, China is no better or worse than the US. Also, given how literally every country under the sun despises US now, this might just happen.
  - UltraSane 8mo ago
    The way China manages it's currency is very different to how the US manages theirs. China maintains strict controls on capital flows in/out. A reserve currency requires free convertibility. Holders need to move large sums instantly without permission. China has repeatedly tightened these controls during stress periods (2015-16 devaluation fears, for example). Limited access to Chinese bond markets and equities for foreign institutions. Reserve currency status requires deep, liquid markets where central banks can park hundreds of billions. US Treasury market is $26T and extremely liquid. Chinese government bond market is smaller and less accessible. Reserve currency issuer must run persistent current account deficits to supply the world with currency. China's economic model is built on export surpluses. They'd need to fundamentally restructure their economy.
    - maxglute 8mo ago
      >Reserve currency issuer must run This is PRC's fundamental disagreement. US reserve currency morphed into high liquid, high speculative instrument to fund unsustainable debt, hollowed out domestic industry (triffin)... but this is not by design. It's the result of emergency adaptations moving off gold, then people post rationalize the trinity musts (open capital, floating rates, independent central bank) is what makes reserve when it's unintended structural outcome from failed gold peg. Now we see hints of end stage USD reserve behavior, debt snow balls and reserve controller will pull the our dollar, your problem card. This US doing current conniptions trying to either reduce USD strength or inflate away debt... costly instability. People forget, liquidity / storage only matters to sovereign buyers who needs reserve for utility... everyone else (now plurality) are private buyers who buy for returns. If we enter end of dollar cycle and USD reserve cost them money, then they go elsewhere Elsewhere is what PRC wants to offer, HIGHLY CONTROLLED, BUT STABLE reserve pegged to PRC industrial chains, i.e. real economy instead of speculative financialization. This what recent yuan reserve talk is from (note it was old Xi speech republished in Qiushi), so the propose model isn't even in response to current USD conniptions but prediction on end life of US behavior when USD reserve goes from exorbitant privilege to just exorbitant. It's precisely because logical outcome of current reserve "musts", i.e. triffin charity/global good that makes it ultimately a stupid arrangement where the system breaks when US/owner can't afford to maintain or develops bad habits (deficit spending). Hence, what PRC plans to offer in parallel: stable regulated reserves for "real economy" financial utility. Stable Yuan "bank" reserve can coexist with volatile USD "casino" reserve. Now of course this all heterodox theory, but we are seeing theory of USD reserve limits peaking it's head, and PRC not retarded enough to pickup triffin baton. IMO PRC fine with US dealing with triffin headache and IMO betting US will fuck global creditors when shit hits fan, i.e. they waiting for USD reserve to implode due to inherent contradictions, to show world precisely why yuan reserve not modelled to repeat same mistake.
      - UltraSane 8mo ago
        No one sane is going to trust the CCP to manage a reserve currency. The euro would be a much better choice.
- UltraSane 8mo ago
  The Yuan is never going to be a global reserve currency with how opaque the CCP is.
  - bloppe 8mo ago
    The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability. Another 3 years of these kinds of manipulations and the Yuan could very well look like the lesser evil to a lot of countries.
    - UltraSane 8mo ago
      Still nowhere near what the CCP does.
    - XorNot 8mo ago
      The Euro is like, right there? Its a market larger then the US.
      - vachina 8mo ago
        Europeans dont make stuff i want to buy.
        XorNot 8mo ago
        Neither does the US that's not the utility of a reserve currency.
    - throw0101a 8mo ago
      > The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability. The yuan/renminbi is currently about 8.5% of all foreign currency transactions. That's on a similar to CAD and AUD (6%): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencie... It has a ways to go still.
  - tastyfreeze 8mo ago
- avensec 8mo ago
  The channel appears to be five years of "It is happening!" and "It started!" thumbnails. I just can't take it seriously, so I decided to look into the company/leadership. It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding.
  - johnvanommen 8mo ago
    > It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding. I really wish that people would wake up to the danger posed by meme stock BS “leaking” into the general markets. Just as voters are responsible for changes in society, uninformed investors can impact society too, especially when they’re amplifying their purchasing power via leverage. For instance, I’ve been buying real estate forever, and I’ve enjoyed the Reventure app. But I’ve REALLY noticed that his YT videos are exclusively doom and gloom. This ceaseless negativity moves markets, just as the irrational exuberance for real estate in 2005 moved markets. But the exuberance for real estate was driven by people who were buying real estate. The endless doom and gloom of YT finance videos is for a much different reason: It drives page views. That’s not a good thing. Because it’s really easy to get swept up in the negativity. And that negativity has a downstream effect, where it’s often used to convince people to invest in things that the YouTuber is promoting. Basically, I don’t know if we need an “SEC for YouTube,” but we might. Yes, I know we already have an SEC for YouTube (it’s the SEC), but nearly none of the people doling out financial advice on YT are trained professionals. It’s the fundamental defect of internet advice; who to trust?
    - zbentley 8mo ago
      Misinformation and mass hysteria suck, I agree. But if the amplification of the sky-is-falling-flavor-of-the-week braindead youtuber take can materially imperil financial markets, the stability of that system was always doomed. An “SEC for YouTube” can’t prevent shit if the lever of influence is already that long. It might be able to keep a lot of meme investor idiots from losing their shirts, but that has to be weighed against the historically evident risks of having what amounts to a ministry of truth/state propaganda regulator.
- drakythe 8mo ago
  I'm immediately concerned with the note about silver dropping so much. Yes, that happened, and was a historic drop. But it followed a historic run up to its prior price, so the drop is still net positive for even a 1 month period. I'm not saying the article's thesis is incorrect, but its providing some data without context. I'm always leery of data presented without context.
  - coffeebeqn 8mo ago
    I take “not financial advice” articles like this at best as entertainment. How can anyone seriously talk about metals for example without mentioning that gold was $1900 and silver $20 a few years ago. Today they sit at $5000 and $80. It’s completely absurd to write about the “drop” as a proof of anything
    - attila-lendvai 8mo ago
      this article discusses the events in the recent couple of months, explicitly. the moves prior to that is not really relevant for its thesis -- regardless of how true it actually is.
- lkey 8mo ago
  DO NOT make financial decisions based on the advice of a youtube channel. DO NOT make financial decisions based of of the advice of an an article written by a know associate of Curtis Yarvin. You saw the video yesterday because this is a marketing exercise. They hold a stake in the outcome, you are the greater fool. Christ. Find a professional fiduciary that doesn't have a youtube channel and never speculate more than you can afford to lose.
  - maleldil 8mo ago
    For the unaware: > Curtis Guy Yarvin (born 1973), also known by the pen name Mencius Moldbug, is an American far-right political blogger and software developer. He is known, along with accelerationist philosopher Nick Land, for founding the anti-egalitarian and anti-democratic philosophical movement known as the Dark Enlightenment or neo-reactionary movement (NRx). The author (jart, Justine Tunney) has openly supported these ideas: https://thebaffler.com/latest/mouthbreathing-machiavellis https://thebaffler.com/latest/mouthbreathing-machiavellis
    - lovich 8mo ago
      Oh so they’re a cryptofascist, for both senses of the word crypto
      - maleldil 8mo ago
        If one of those meanings is "one who hides their support for fascism", it doesn't apply, as they've made public displays of support. It's just that most people know them for their technical accomplishments without doing further research on who they are. This is understandable, hence my warning.
        lovich 8mo ago
        Everyone in the IDW or who followed Mencius moldbug always told normies they weren’t fascist and that you just called them Nazis because you disagreed with them until the current day when they are now more open about being in what they consider a post Constitutional era. That’s why they were called cryptofascists even though I agree they’ve dropped the hidden part since they feel they have the power to get away with it.
- pjc50 8mo ago
  Everyone forgetting the more likely, more rule-of-law based fallback option for a reserve currency and international payments system (which is the important bit!): the Euro. Digital or otherwise.
mwt 8mo ago
Only through the first two paragraphs but a little turned off by the "everybody else is wrong, we are right and it's this one specific thing" attitude when it the topic is understanding something as complex and opaque as the global economy
- floatrock 8mo ago
  The Yen Carry Trade isn't some big secret... it's caused enough turmoil that it hit the front pages of the WSJ a few times in last few years (Aug 2024 was a big one iirc) Finance bros will make their way in here soon to give a better peanut gallery, but I think "is there something here" comes down to do you believe the final bit of the articles opening act: > When correlations between historically uncorrelated assets (e.g. Gold, Bitcoin, Microsoft, and Silver) approach 1.0 during a sell-off, it serves as a distinct indicator that traders are not selling what they want to sell, but rather what they must sell in order to meet margin calls in a funding currency that is rapidly appreciating against their liabilities.
- svnt 8mo ago
  Yeah that part is a bit red string but the analysis further down is more reasonable. I have no idea whether it is an opportunity or someone grabbed the domain and going for a pump-and-dump, either seems plausible.
  - terminalbraid 8mo ago
    Except the part where they confuse "cryptography" for cryptocurrency. Assuming they knew the difference.
- ToucanLoucan 8mo ago
  Personally I think Microsoft's stock is crashing less about any of this (though it is a hell of a theory IMO) and more to do with the fact that: * They are investing in AI, both financially and by corporate communication, over and above everything else and pissing off damn near everyone in the process * The XBox brand is tanking * Windows is an utter disaster, according to Microsoft themselves, and Valve is so dispirited with it as the future for gaming that they've invested millions into a linux-based framework to run Windows games
joshuamcginnis 8mo ago
> In short, occupywallst.org is a living archive and occasional update point for a landmark left-wing protest movement that put economic inequality and corporate power at the center of national conversation starting in 2011. Is this true?
- bfung 8mo ago
  Dunno about the website or corp, but the occupy wall st movement was/is true. Happened right after 2008 stock market crash and people camped out on Wall Street in protest of bailing out the banks.
  - irishcoffee 8mo ago
    One can make the argument that trump was elected because of OWS knock-on effects...
    - tolerance 8mo ago
      I’m listening—...
      - DiscourseFan 8mo ago
        Just, like, it was the first populist political movement following the ‘08 crash, and while Obama was supposed to be the liberal technocratic answer to the failure of neoliberalism, he was not able to create policies that restored the social and economic post-war order in the US. After Bernie Sanders lost the 2016 nomination, the populist left, which still retained a hope of a new kind of society, no longer had a political representative, and Trump managed to clinch the nomination by campaigning in states that had been neglected by the Clinton campaign. Biden was another, more radical but still fundamentally liberal technocratic attempt to save the status quo of America politics, but the largest economic gains were for the educated professional class, and many people in the country felt left behind and ignored—-again, now with the backing of popular support, Trump won the 2024 election with a promise to completely reshape the country. And he has at least in part succeeded.
elaida73 8mo ago
>By anchoring borrowing costs at or near zero, the BOJ enabled Wall Street to borrow Yen cheaply and invest it with leverage into higher yielding instruments globally, such as U.S. treasuries, equities, and cryptography Think you mean crypto currency here?
- largbae 8mo ago
  They got the word wrong, but I don't believe cryptocurrency would count either: The interest rates at BoJ _are_ low, but to borrow anywhere near that low they have to have high quality collateral like treasuries.
- soperj 8mo ago
  No, they've got into cartography now. Have you never heard of a bitmap?
anonymous908213 8mo ago
[flagged]
- cedws 8mo ago
  Doubt that it’s LLM-generated given this is Justine Tunney’s project.
  - sharifhsn 8mo ago
    It is most certainly LLM generated. Nobody but an AI prompted with “connect the unwind of the yen carry trade with Trump’s threats to acquire Greenland” would have ever written something like that. My guess is that she did a lot of research on the topic with AI then created this article partially with AI generated text.
    - kykat 8mo ago
      I definitely got a strong feel of LLM output reading it. Not sure if the points themselves have any merit, but I don't think that I'll go and run to buy jpy.
      - potsandpans 8mo ago
        Yes and feelings are real
  - deleted 8mo ago
    [deleted]
drewbailey 8mo ago
> We saw silver drop 40% which hasn't happened since 1980 40% pullback but still up 150% over the past year..
- airstrike 8mo ago
  yeah, I stopped reading there
  - anonymous908213 8mo ago
    Aww, then you missed the best part! Who wouldn't be head over heels for the opportunity to follow this financial advice and lose all of their "monopoly money" (funsie term for real cash!)? Call To Action This won't just be the big one. This could be the last one. If you've been preparing your whole life, knowing that something's coming, then this could be the thing you've been preparing for. One final opportunity to get the guys who did this. [...] The worst that can happen is you lose your monopoly money, but that's been happening anyway.
    - johnvanommen 8mo ago
      Yeah that’s a huge red flag
- tartoran 8mo ago
  Bitcoin is crashing hard too.
- sharifhsn 8mo ago
  I spoke with a silver expert a week ago before the crash and he said half the flow is speculative, structural flow will remain. Looks like he was right.
- khuey 8mo ago
  It was the same on Silver Thursday in 1980 too. And then it went sideways for a couple decades.
OGEnthusiast 8mo ago
This reads like LLM slop. The "carry trade blowing up" has been written about hundreds of time before, so it's not surprising it's so prevalent in LLM training data.
- Supermancho 8mo ago
  The assertion that metals tanked because of Warsh being picked, is particularly telling. Warsh is not a hawk, despite some media narratives. The Fed is stuck behind not raising rates while the debt is coming down on banking while POTUS is crazier than ever and lowering rates to raise inflation/debase the currency and debt. It's not going to take long to see where this path leads.
  - othomp 8mo ago
    Not to mention that Congress is the one in control of the ship and they don't seem particularly keen on putting their hands on the wheel.
seydor 8mo ago
Nothing that cant be fixed with threats to invade okinawa or 100% tarriffs to matcha or sth
helios_invictus 8mo ago
I've skimmed this article, but what does this mean for most of the people in the US?
- forgetfreeman 8mo ago
  We are profoundly fucked.
  - alex_young 8mo ago
    We always are. And yet, number go up.
    - forgetfreeman 8mo ago
      Tell that to Adolf Merckle.
- largbae 8mo ago
  The author is implying that BoJ can/might/will cause appreciation of the Yen, which will force folks who are short(borrowing Yen) to buy USD assets to go underwater, forcing liquidation to pay back the Yen, and appreciating the Yen more. It's possible but there is no guarantee it would be a disruptive feedback loop or this year or etc. If you believe them, then you can hedge buy either shorting TLT(betting treasury yields will rise), or going long Yen (e.g. FXY shares/calls). I bought some FXY calls but just enough to hedge the Yen prices of my upcoming Tokyo trip in case they're right.
1024core 8mo ago
I don't understand one thing: why would the Japanese government maintain a ZIRP or a NIRP ? What do they have to gain by doing so?
- lbrito 8mo ago
  Probably to stimulate the economy which has been stagnant in terms of GDP since the 90s
- johnvanommen 8mo ago
  It’s to control inflation. Basically, when currency is scarce, its value goes UP. When currency is plentiful, its value goes DOWN. The first scenario lowers inflation, the second raises it. After Japans bubble economy popped in the early 90s, they had asset values FALL. So the BoJ began stimulating the economy - trying to push UP inflation - by adding currency to the markets. The Carry Trade illustrates one of the dangers: Japan was trying to stimulate their own economy, to counteract the deflation caused by their bubble popping. But money doesn’t know borders, and though the money was intended to stimulate JAPANS economy, there was nothing stopping ANYONE from purchasing that currency. It’s not like you have to live in Japan to buy Yen. So the money (yen) was created in Japan, but ended up all over the world. This has consequences: * Japan ended up with mountains of US dollars. This is one of the reasons that Japan has more US Treasuries than China. This mountain of dollars lowers YOUR cost of living. Because USD is being acquired for The Carry Trade. This creates artificial demand for USD. * Because the yen is created in Japan but is then used for international commerce, it dramatically reduces the inflation that “printing money” would normally create. This is why Japan has more debt per capita than any country by far, by a factor of over 2X I am just an I.T. dude who invests in real estate. So what I just posted may be completely wrong. The carry trade has existed for about four decades; that’s my summary of how it affects us, from the perspective of a small time real estate guy.
  - pjc50 8mo ago
    We're a bit far down in the thread, but I'd be interested in knowing why this alleged outflow of cheap yen didn't keep pushing the currency down. It's been flattish in the 100-150 band for decades. I had to fact check the Japan having most treasuries, it's true, see this chart: https://economicsinsider.com/top-15-largest-us-treasury-holders/ https://economicsinsider.com/top-15-largest-us-treasury-hold... As an aside, the presence of "Luxembourg" and "Grand Cayman" on that chart is a bit of a tipoff as to how the global economy works.
rvz 8mo ago
Either way, we all know a crash is due before the next decade (everyone is IPOing to the exit), and if you don't realize that by now, well...
- barbazoo 8mo ago
  I'll bite. Isn't as obvious to me as it is to you, I'm just a programmer, I don't know how the economy works. This is literally the first time in my life I heard anything about governments borrowing Yen like this and that this would become an issue. I'm aware of an "AI bubble" and the over-concentration on the "Magnificent 7". What else is obvious to people and why is the timeframe (next 4 years) so obvious?
  - wilkommen 8mo ago
    The entire stock market basically functions as a funnel of wealth from the middle class to the rich right now. When OpenAI and Anthropic IPO, they'll be megacap stocks and 401ks and pension funds the world over will invest in them. Then insiders will cash out, and the AI bubble will collapse. USD will have transferred from the retirement accounts of middle-class people to the rich. This is how all stock market crashes work. This one is especially interesting because the middle class is already so squeezed - how many more times can they pull this trick off? Seems like it can't go on many more times.
    - machiaweliczny 8mo ago
      Yeah, I think people have had enough this time its not gonna fly
    - jart 8mo ago
      That's not how the Google IPO worked. If you bought that at IPO and held it this whole time, you'd be very rich by now. Which is why the financial system will never let that happen again. These days many of the companies that go public will be nefarious financial schemes in Florida that hired and fired a guy in a San Jose at one point (thus transforming the scheme into a Silicon Valley startup) and anything good like Anthropic you need permission to invest in them, or you invest in them by proxy. If you want to long OpenAI you then you long Microsoft. If you want to long Anthropic then you long Google. Guess which one the carry traders liked more these past few days?
mempko 8mo ago
This is a good analysis of the yen carry trade but i'd argue the causality is backwards. Record high margin debt in the U.S. is the root cause as it's a powder keg. The yen is just the fuse being lit. When system-wide leverage is this extreme, any funding sock (whether it's the BOJ rate hikes, hawish fed, or geopolitical event) can initiate the liquidation cascade. The yen carry trade is one source of that leverage but the fragility was baked in. If Japan didn't do anything something else would have cause the liquidation cascade, only a matter of time. The real story isn't Tokyo, it's that Wall Street built a house of cards and ran out of steady hands. I have a public ThetaEdge card that monitors margin debt and calculates the correlation with the S&P here: https://thetaedge.ai/public/thetix-card/42d9c6de-218d-4627-ab49-8608a854900b https://thetaedge.ai/public/thetix-card/42d9c6de-218d-4627-a...
- topspin 8mo ago
  > Record high margin debt $566B in margin debt. Is that actually a financial black swan amount of money? If 50% of that got "corrected" into Money Heaven on Friday, would it be more than a bad day at the stock market?
  - mempko 8mo ago
    You're right that $566B alone isn't a black swan. That FINRA figure only captures retail and small institutional margin at broker-dealers. It excludes prime brokerage (hedge funds), securities-based lending, and repo markets. Conservative estimates put total leveraged exposure at $10-15 trillion. The $566B is maybe 5% of the iceberg. I see visible margin debt as both a canary and a proxy. It's a canary because retail cracks first (less sophisticated risk management, stricter regulatory margin). It's a proxy because when visible leverage contracts, it usually means hidden leverage is contracting too. They're exposed to the same assets. When FINRA margin debt starts falling, it's not just a warning, it's confirmation that system-wide deleveraging is already underway. That's my 2c. Does that make sense?
    - topspin 8mo ago
      > a canary and a proxy Whatever shenanigans are appear in the public record, multiply by 10x to approximate of the real story. > Does that make sense? Yep. 1929 called. Just to gloat. They don't want their market back.
knuckleheads 8mo ago
It is a shame that jart got control of @OccupyWallSt and occupywallst.com and never gave it up. It seems like her politics and views are very out of line with many of the people who were originally involved in that movement. Repurposing occupywallst.com for something like this compared to it's origin is a big disappointing contrast. https://web.archive.org/web/20111021162924/http://www.occupywallst.org/ https://web.archive.org/web/20111021162924/http://www.occupy...
- jart 8mo ago
  I was the one who registered it. Occupy as a movement has always been inclusive of people with different points of view. My job running the website and twitter has always been to give the people a voice. I think that's important, don't you? The only guy with more credibility than me in Occupy is Micah White but he's been growing vegetables in Oregon ever since he visited Davos a few years back. So I'm the best you've got.
  - deleted 8mo ago
    [deleted]
  - knuckleheads 8mo ago
    You in particular are my main criticism of Occupy as a movement. They lacked any sort of structure, shunned it in fact, that would have ripped control of these resources away from you once it became clear that you disagreed politically with the vast majority of the people involved. That you were allowed to keep control of those resources is emblematic of how Occupy could let all that energy dissipate into nothing.
    - jart 8mo ago
      What resources? OccupyWallSt.org only accepted enough donations to keep the 1-800 number and website online. I was smart enough to understand back then that an unemployed 26 year old activist living in a park wasn't qualified to manage the capital that was being offered to us. So what did I do? I gave you about twenty different links for various projects on the donation page to choose from.
IncreasePosts 8mo ago
Anyone doing any attempt at market analysis should lay out the trades they've made and the time frames they're talking about. So we can come back later and point a finger at them and laugh. It seems like their conclusion is "hold lots of yen"? We'll see I guess.
mekdoonggi 8mo ago
Bottom line is: buy Yen futures to screw billionaires. Sounds pretty good to me.
- worik 8mo ago
  Bottom line is: * Pay your debts * Own useful assets * Live in a peaceful stable country
  - mekdoonggi 8mo ago
    Well duh. That's obviously what everyone should try to do, but it's nice to engage in a bit of flight of fancy. I like imaging a rogue group of retail investors buying up the yen, short squeezing carry traders and sticking it to the billionaires. Real life is much more boring, and involves habitual, long term good choices.
sharifhsn 8mo ago
Speaking as a quant that has followed this story closely for months (and was educated about the yen carry trade in my degree), this narrative is somewhat wrong and also very obviously LLM slop. It is true that the yen carry trade is currently being unwound and that it has significant implications for nearly all holders of treasuries. But claiming that ALL of the recent volatility is due to this one event is ludicrous. There are some blatant falsities, like saying that gold and silver are historically uncorrelated??? And it’s clear that the author has a bias against the financial establishment (“monopoly money”), coloring the output. That said, there are legitimately interesting bits here I didn’t know about, like the Japanese institutional liquidation of US treasuries. I would not repeat this information to others without fact checking it, but if accurately described it’s an important space to watch. It’s not surprising that the LLM would get some things right, of course. One big problem with this article is the clear prompt given to connect x current event to the yen carry trade, like Warsh’s nomination and the Greenland nonsense. This creates a lot of noise. It’s basically the LLM looking for a pattern between these things instead of identifying a structural flow. It might not even be wrong, but it’s horribly biased towards finding a fake pattern, so I would never trust it. For the tech heads in HN that are excited to see a Justine Tunney post: don’t go crazy. If you’re really interested in learning about the unwinding of the yen carry trade, there’s plenty of information from actual experts to read about, not this slop.
- sharifhsn 8mo ago
  Also, while I’m not an expert on Japan, I’ve been following Gearoid Reidy’s commentary on Takaichi and the new Japanese economy and I think the fears expressed are significantly overblown. But this is also characteristic of many other market participants so I wouldn’t categorize this as something obviously wrong, just a disagreement.
- Supermancho 8mo ago
  > like the Japanese institutional liquidation of US treasuries There were news articles about this "happening" but this event never realized.
  - sharifhsn 8mo ago
ReptileMan 8mo ago
>Following the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, U.S. markets opened on January 20 to a bloodbath. The S&P 500 fell 2.1%, the Nasdaq composite dropped 2.4%, Should someone that calls 2.4 percent movement bloodbath be taken seriously?
- thegrim000 8mo ago
  And fully recovered in less than 48 hours. What a bloodbath ..
panphora 8mo ago
Anger about the 2008 bailout makes sense. Yen carry unwind deserves attention. However, the trading call to action fails on market structure. Key counterpoints: - Global FX turnover runs near $9.6T per day (BIS, April 2025). A retail wave of calls will not move USD/JPY in a durable way at that scale. - /6J options settle on /6J futures. When you buy calls, you mostly push dealer delta hedging into futures, then dealers unwind as exposure changes. No sustained spot yen demand comes from that flow. - FXY calls track an ETF wrapper, not spot. - “Widowmaker trade” most often refers to repeated losses from shorting Japanese government bonds, not a long-yen crowd squeeze.
- dist-epoch 8mo ago
  That $9.6T is mostly back and forth non-directional HFT. Otherwise it would not take a day to swap $500 mil for commercial reasons (think buying a couple Boeing plane with Euros) to avoid too much market impact as documented in multiple interviews with currency dealers stating it takes them 1 day to "work" a $500 mil order. Retail can move FX, if it piles into one pair. But unlike the Boeing order they will also need to exit the trade at some point, which makes them vulnerable.
- bandrami 8mo ago
  > Anger about the 2008 bailout makes sense Does it? It cost the taxpayers nothing (in fact it made us money), it destroyed 4 of the 5 largest investment banks in the US, and it sent over 200 bankers, brokers, and auditors to jail. What part of that are people mad about, and why?
  - tired-turtle 8mo ago
    If I had to guess, Americans say they dislike the 2008 bailouts to mean they dislike how Wall Street banks caused a recession.
    - bandrami 8mo ago
      I think most people think that TARP cost the government money (rather than the opposite) and that "only one banker went to jail" is still true (it hasn't been true since 2013). Which is honestly a pretty shocking indictment of the news media.
RayMan1 8mo ago
Great piece, I like the VIX part the best. Do you need any help with your site?
MaxfordAndSons 8mo ago
Can anyone recommend a good source to ramp up one's understanding of macroeconomics/monetary policy to a point where they can make sense of this? Starting from more or less a layman's understanding. Could be a book or course, but doesn't have to be university quality, a good blog or youtube channel could do.
- johnvanommen 8mo ago
  This is such a loaded question. Because the fundamentals are basic: Creating money out of thin air generally creates inflation, because theirs is more currency chasing the same amount of assets. But the Devil is in the details, because there are hundreds of currencies, one currency can be exchanged for another, and interest rates vary all over the world. Then once that starts to make sense, you open up a box called “derivatives,” and now the complexity just went off the charts. I only need to understand it in the context of loans on assets, so I can do the math in my head or in excel. Occasionally I’ll vibe code this stuff in Python. Because I’m not diving into the deep end of complexity, the books I absolutely LOVE are the cautionary tales of when it all blows up. In that respect, I think “when genius fails” is an all timer. Nearly everyone knows about the Great Recession, and the depression and the dot com bubble. But the collapse of Long Term Capital Management was the canary in the coal mine. LTCM blew up for all of the most predictable reasons, and as the name implies, nearly everyone involved in LTCM were at the top of their game. Another book that is more folksy is “a man for all markets“, a book about the dude who revolutionized stock options, largely due to a fascination with Blackjack! (The LTCM guys were big time gamblers too.) https://www.google.com/search?q=a+man+for+all+markets+by+ed+thorp https://www.google.com/search?q=a+man+for+all+markets+by+ed+...
wenbin 8mo ago
HN is full of tech savvy people. Yet an llm slop article is upvoted to the front page of HN... Imagine how deceptive llm slop contents are to the general population.
aeneas_ory 8mo ago
It‘s really hard to read this article, it smells of LLM generated slop once you get past the first couple of paragraphs - lots of negative parallelisms and lots of words without adding value to the sentence: > To validate the thesis that the Yen unwind is the primary driver of volatility, we must examine the sequence of events. The crash did not happen in a vacuum; it followed a precise timeline … > It wasn't just about rates anymore; it was about the stability of the U.S.-led global order > The unwinding of a carry trade is not a monolithic event; it is a cascade that ripples outward It‘s like almost in every paragraph. I don’t understand why this gets to be on the frontpage to be honest. It just reads horrible even if some of the points may be true (or hallucinated, who knows)
- potsandpans 8mo ago
  I have a sense that were in a moment of mass hysteria. You dot even understand what your reading anymore. Cant tell whether you're reading a hallucination or someones thoughts. "I don't agree / understand this, it must not be real!" Now, you have to wonder: is my grammar just poor? Or did I intentionally inject spelling and grammar errors into the output or an llm? Is it in my system prompt to do this?
jayd16 8mo ago
> then you buy treasury bonds that pay 4% > used by a generation of investors How short is a generation for investors? Aren't we near 20 year highs as far as US bond rates? I guess the point is that this is more about the Yen than about US bonds?
thrownawaysz 8mo ago
Sounds good, too bad I only have $5k available. Even if I spend all on FXY it won't gain that much from the current $58.6 in the forseeable future. Rich get richer I guess so nothing changes just the location.
ricksunny 8mo ago
Smacks of: "support my thesis and ignore alternative explanations and contrary evidence on whether there's even a there, there" AI-research slop.
WD-42 8mo ago
This is such a weird use of the domain, and kind of sad. I know the original movement was very diverse and had different ideas, but I'm not sure dispensing what ultimately amounts to financial advice from within the system really fits.
- wahnfrieden 8mo ago
  It doesn’t. The author is a Yarvinite and Musk worshipper
  - Biganon 8mo ago
    Being trans and a Musk worshipper is wild
    - omnimus 8mo ago
      Also their software projects are quite amazing. It has to be someone living just on the edge of sanity. Schizo rollercoaster life of being at the same time smartest person in the room while completely missing forrest for the trees. How can someone be starting occupy wall street and few years later fully embrace the moldbugs CEO corporate monarchy. Brilliant and dumb and scary. It's truly wild.
      - wahnfrieden 8mo ago
        A lot of grifter fash latched onto OWS and built careers off their early involvement
  - vidro3 8mo ago
    who is the author?
    - roxolotl 8mo ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justine_Tunney https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justine_Tunney
gwbas1c 8mo ago
A lot of the financial jargon makes the article hard to follow. I know I'm not the target audience, but I wish at times there were some plain English summaries of terms.
- marcosdumay 8mo ago
  The Japanese central bank arrived in zero effective interest rates in the 90s, and has been practicing negative effective rates (I.E. smaller than inflation) for a while. That had the effect that their banks took huge amounts of government loans and used it to buy foreign assets. As returns are higher in countries with higher interest rates, and lots of assets are practically safe, like government bonds, that is close to free money for them, and a very cheap loan to the receiving country. But last year their central bank made the interest rate positive. And investors are acting on the expected way, selling the foreign assets and paying off their government. The article is claiming that this is the cause of the recent turbulence in the investment markets.
  - gwbas1c 8mo ago
    Thanks, that was generally how I interpreted the article. The issue was the terms. There was a lot of logic inversion that someone who's much more familiar with the terms could probably follow, especially when trying to understand how an investment in Microsoft was loosing value when the investment was from a loan in yen. Likewise, the end of the article uses a lot of abbreviations, especially when referring to Australian currency, which I just don't understand at all.
    - marcosdumay 8mo ago
      TBF, I don't think he explained why he things Microsoft is going down because of that. He talks about timing, but stocks aren't a very common carry trade investment (from any country), and it didn't start unwinding last week. Those abbreviations are mostly for foreign exchange derivatives. That is, contracts that don't involve trading currency, but have terms that depend on the price of those currencies. Derivatives are quick to react to anything, so if you are looking for some kind of trigger signal, you will find it there first. But they are also quick to react to nothing, so even if you find a trigger signal there are still some good odds that nothing happened. One one relevant index there that isn't a forex derivative is VIX. Well, it's supposed to measure how much the S&P500 will go down in the future, but I have no idea what actually goes in it. If you want to look into it, I think the place to start is this: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/vix-intro/ https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/vix-intro/ (Oh, and the article makes a great deal of VIX being low, but on the time we took to read and discuss it, it's already quite high.)
QuiCasseRien 8mo ago
Seriously, I really appreciate that article, explaining a lot a thing we see that news are able to understand and explain. God job
jongjong 8mo ago
Japan is interesting because it has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio of any developed country and most other countries in the world are increasing their debt-to-GDP ratio; in effect, they're all moving towards a Japanese reality due to the fiat system's lack of hard monetary constraints. If you look at Japan, the aspects of its economy and society which stand out the most are: - Rigid economic structure and processes. - Economy dominated by huge corporations, without much room for startups. - Highly concentrated urban population. - Population decline. Many young people are not dating and not getting married, can't afford much on their salaries working in the city.
jongjong 8mo ago
Whenever a government offers loans at an interest rate which is below the risk premium, that difference essentially represents the government giving the borrower free money paid for by all citizens through loss of buying power. So when Japan offered 0% interest loans to traders who used it to buy USD bonds, it represents the Japan government offloading the cost of the risk premium to its citizens and giving the difference to the traders for free... But then the traders give that free money to the US government where it helps to inflate the USD currency supply to make American asset-holders richer. The traders aren't actually profiting from the carry trade because the 4% return on US bonds doesn't cover the real inflation (loss of buying power) of the US dollar; their net worth in terms of buying power is actually the same or dropping. US asset holders are the ones actually reaping the benefit.
msejas 8mo ago
What a lot of people seem to not understand about the stock market, is that at it's basis it's just a supply/demand ratio. When it goes down it means someone is selling a lot, someone is cashing in, at least converting it into cash. For me it was obvious something was afoot with earnings and performance not matching the prices, I finally understand why now thanks to this article. The fact that there are rules for institutional investors and retail investors and us in retail have so little visibility and time to keep up, just shows more and more the game is a david vs a goliath, and we are all slingless david.
- YZF 8mo ago
  It's more than just supply and demand. It's the price discovery. So I guess you can say supply and demand curves. The curves change with the market psychology and with future expectations. Most institutional investors are not going to outperform your diversified portfolio. It's not like professionally managed funds are killing it while individual investors are losing. There are some specific examples of funds/people who do well but on average most do ... average.
  - msejas 8mo ago
    Fully agree market psychology has a big influence in prices, TESLA is a great example of this. My main point is that most people, including the media, whenever there is a big crash in prices, like silver going down double digits, they act like the money evaporated and everyone that invested lost money. My point is that it's not the case, it dropped because there was a huge volume of people selling, making it cheaper. The people selling converted it all for liquidity, they just 'got' a lot of money in cash to spend, and they needed it or will use it for one reason to another. Retail investors don't have the time (unless you work in finance) to read all the news and information to be aware of situations that will trigger liquidity crunches like these past few months, while institutional investors will. My point here is you could have performed all of the value investing in the world and you are still eating losses, standard diversification theory is to put in gold when the markets are unstable, as it appreciates in time of high volatility, we are in times of extreme volatility and gold crashed, it makes no sense unless you have visibility in the institutional investing trends.
deleted 8mo ago
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thegrim000 8mo ago
Utter rubbish from an extremely biased source. Every time they say something like "didn't you notice X" or "your portfolio must look like Y" the answer is nope, you're completely wrong. Every time they talk about some major "crash" you can just go look at it and see that it recovered within 48 hours and looked identical to dozens of other events through recent history. The outright calls for violence + intentionally destroying our own economy to "stick it to the man" at the end surely make me believe this is some rational analysis.
meindnoch 8mo ago
Sir, just tell me what do I do to make money! Do I buy? Do I sell? And what?
- nojvek 8mo ago
  Buy when others are selling. Sell when others are buying.
  - meindnoch 8mo ago
    Thank you sir!!
Havoc 8mo ago
Seems like a pretty fragile analysis

324 points by jart 8mo ago

I watched this video yesterday corroborating this story and I gotta say the evidence is pretty hard to refute: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ws8Grsc4jU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ws8Grsc4jU Purposefully devaluing the dollar to make US goods more globally marketable and hide the Japanese debt crisis is an interesting but risky strategy. Currently, I'm glad to see a correction without panic, but it's too early to make a call on the effect on the overall global economy. Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy.

rednafi 8mo ago
> Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy. I wonder why you’re worried. Regime’s change all the time. From a third party perspective, China is no better or worse than the US. Also, given how literally every country under the sun despises US now, this might just happen.
- UltraSane 8mo ago
  The way China manages it's currency is very different to how the US manages theirs. China maintains strict controls on capital flows in/out. A reserve currency requires free convertibility. Holders need to move large sums instantly without permission. China has repeatedly tightened these controls during stress periods (2015-16 devaluation fears, for example). Limited access to Chinese bond markets and equities for foreign institutions. Reserve currency status requires deep, liquid markets where central banks can park hundreds of billions. US Treasury market is $26T and extremely liquid. Chinese government bond market is smaller and less accessible. Reserve currency issuer must run persistent current account deficits to supply the world with currency. China's economic model is built on export surpluses. They'd need to fundamentally restructure their economy.
  - maxglute 8mo ago
    >Reserve currency issuer must run This is PRC's fundamental disagreement. US reserve currency morphed into high liquid, high speculative instrument to fund unsustainable debt, hollowed out domestic industry (triffin)... but this is not by design. It's the result of emergency adaptations moving off gold, then people post rationalize the trinity musts (open capital, floating rates, independent central bank) is what makes reserve when it's unintended structural outcome from failed gold peg. Now we see hints of end stage USD reserve behavior, debt snow balls and reserve controller will pull the our dollar, your problem card. This US doing current conniptions trying to either reduce USD strength or inflate away debt... costly instability. People forget, liquidity / storage only matters to sovereign buyers who needs reserve for utility... everyone else (now plurality) are private buyers who buy for returns. If we enter end of dollar cycle and USD reserve cost them money, then they go elsewhere Elsewhere is what PRC wants to offer, HIGHLY CONTROLLED, BUT STABLE reserve pegged to PRC industrial chains, i.e. real economy instead of speculative financialization. This what recent yuan reserve talk is from (note it was old Xi speech republished in Qiushi), so the propose model isn't even in response to current USD conniptions but prediction on end life of US behavior when USD reserve goes from exorbitant privilege to just exorbitant. It's precisely because logical outcome of current reserve "musts", i.e. triffin charity/global good that makes it ultimately a stupid arrangement where the system breaks when US/owner can't afford to maintain or develops bad habits (deficit spending). Hence, what PRC plans to offer in parallel: stable regulated reserves for "real economy" financial utility. Stable Yuan "bank" reserve can coexist with volatile USD "casino" reserve. Now of course this all heterodox theory, but we are seeing theory of USD reserve limits peaking it's head, and PRC not retarded enough to pickup triffin baton. IMO PRC fine with US dealing with triffin headache and IMO betting US will fuck global creditors when shit hits fan, i.e. they waiting for USD reserve to implode due to inherent contradictions, to show world precisely why yuan reserve not modelled to repeat same mistake.
    - UltraSane 8mo ago
      No one sane is going to trust the CCP to manage a reserve currency. The euro would be a much better choice.
UltraSane 8mo ago
The Yuan is never going to be a global reserve currency with how opaque the CCP is.
- bloppe 8mo ago
  The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability. Another 3 years of these kinds of manipulations and the Yuan could very well look like the lesser evil to a lot of countries.
  - UltraSane 8mo ago
    Still nowhere near what the CCP does.
  - XorNot 8mo ago
    The Euro is like, right there? Its a market larger then the US.
    - vachina 8mo ago
      Europeans dont make stuff i want to buy.
      - XorNot 8mo ago
        Neither does the US that's not the utility of a reserve currency.
  - throw0101a 8mo ago
    > The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability. The yuan/renminbi is currently about 8.5% of all foreign currency transactions. That's on a similar to CAD and AUD (6%): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencie... It has a ways to go still.
- tastyfreeze 8mo ago
avensec 8mo ago
The channel appears to be five years of "It is happening!" and "It started!" thumbnails. I just can't take it seriously, so I decided to look into the company/leadership. It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding.
- johnvanommen 8mo ago
  > It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding. I really wish that people would wake up to the danger posed by meme stock BS “leaking” into the general markets. Just as voters are responsible for changes in society, uninformed investors can impact society too, especially when they’re amplifying their purchasing power via leverage. For instance, I’ve been buying real estate forever, and I’ve enjoyed the Reventure app. But I’ve REALLY noticed that his YT videos are exclusively doom and gloom. This ceaseless negativity moves markets, just as the irrational exuberance for real estate in 2005 moved markets. But the exuberance for real estate was driven by people who were buying real estate. The endless doom and gloom of YT finance videos is for a much different reason: It drives page views. That’s not a good thing. Because it’s really easy to get swept up in the negativity. And that negativity has a downstream effect, where it’s often used to convince people to invest in things that the YouTuber is promoting. Basically, I don’t know if we need an “SEC for YouTube,” but we might. Yes, I know we already have an SEC for YouTube (it’s the SEC), but nearly none of the people doling out financial advice on YT are trained professionals. It’s the fundamental defect of internet advice; who to trust?
  - zbentley 8mo ago
    Misinformation and mass hysteria suck, I agree. But if the amplification of the sky-is-falling-flavor-of-the-week braindead youtuber take can materially imperil financial markets, the stability of that system was always doomed. An “SEC for YouTube” can’t prevent shit if the lever of influence is already that long. It might be able to keep a lot of meme investor idiots from losing their shirts, but that has to be weighed against the historically evident risks of having what amounts to a ministry of truth/state propaganda regulator.
drakythe 8mo ago
I'm immediately concerned with the note about silver dropping so much. Yes, that happened, and was a historic drop. But it followed a historic run up to its prior price, so the drop is still net positive for even a 1 month period. I'm not saying the article's thesis is incorrect, but its providing some data without context. I'm always leery of data presented without context.
- coffeebeqn 8mo ago
  I take “not financial advice” articles like this at best as entertainment. How can anyone seriously talk about metals for example without mentioning that gold was $1900 and silver $20 a few years ago. Today they sit at $5000 and $80. It’s completely absurd to write about the “drop” as a proof of anything
  - attila-lendvai 8mo ago
    this article discusses the events in the recent couple of months, explicitly. the moves prior to that is not really relevant for its thesis -- regardless of how true it actually is.
lkey 8mo ago
DO NOT make financial decisions based on the advice of a youtube channel. DO NOT make financial decisions based of of the advice of an an article written by a know associate of Curtis Yarvin. You saw the video yesterday because this is a marketing exercise. They hold a stake in the outcome, you are the greater fool. Christ. Find a professional fiduciary that doesn't have a youtube channel and never speculate more than you can afford to lose.
- maleldil 8mo ago
  For the unaware: > Curtis Guy Yarvin (born 1973), also known by the pen name Mencius Moldbug, is an American far-right political blogger and software developer. He is known, along with accelerationist philosopher Nick Land, for founding the anti-egalitarian and anti-democratic philosophical movement known as the Dark Enlightenment or neo-reactionary movement (NRx). The author (jart, Justine Tunney) has openly supported these ideas: https://thebaffler.com/latest/mouthbreathing-machiavellis https://thebaffler.com/latest/mouthbreathing-machiavellis
  - lovich 8mo ago
    Oh so they’re a cryptofascist, for both senses of the word crypto
    - maleldil 8mo ago
      If one of those meanings is "one who hides their support for fascism", it doesn't apply, as they've made public displays of support. It's just that most people know them for their technical accomplishments without doing further research on who they are. This is understandable, hence my warning.
      - lovich 8mo ago
        Everyone in the IDW or who followed Mencius moldbug always told normies they weren’t fascist and that you just called them Nazis because you disagreed with them until the current day when they are now more open about being in what they consider a post Constitutional era. That’s why they were called cryptofascists even though I agree they’ve dropped the hidden part since they feel they have the power to get away with it.
pjc50 8mo ago
Everyone forgetting the more likely, more rule-of-law based fallback option for a reserve currency and international payments system (which is the important bit!): the Euro. Digital or otherwise.

mwt 8mo ago

Only through the first two paragraphs but a little turned off by the "everybody else is wrong, we are right and it's this one specific thing" attitude when it the topic is understanding something as complex and opaque as the global economy

floatrock 8mo ago
The Yen Carry Trade isn't some big secret... it's caused enough turmoil that it hit the front pages of the WSJ a few times in last few years (Aug 2024 was a big one iirc) Finance bros will make their way in here soon to give a better peanut gallery, but I think "is there something here" comes down to do you believe the final bit of the articles opening act: > When correlations between historically uncorrelated assets (e.g. Gold, Bitcoin, Microsoft, and Silver) approach 1.0 during a sell-off, it serves as a distinct indicator that traders are not selling what they want to sell, but rather what they must sell in order to meet margin calls in a funding currency that is rapidly appreciating against their liabilities.
svnt 8mo ago
Yeah that part is a bit red string but the analysis further down is more reasonable. I have no idea whether it is an opportunity or someone grabbed the domain and going for a pump-and-dump, either seems plausible.
- terminalbraid 8mo ago
  Except the part where they confuse "cryptography" for cryptocurrency. Assuming they knew the difference.
ToucanLoucan 8mo ago
Personally I think Microsoft's stock is crashing less about any of this (though it is a hell of a theory IMO) and more to do with the fact that: * They are investing in AI, both financially and by corporate communication, over and above everything else and pissing off damn near everyone in the process * The XBox brand is tanking * Windows is an utter disaster, according to Microsoft themselves, and Valve is so dispirited with it as the future for gaming that they've invested millions into a linux-based framework to run Windows games

joshuamcginnis 8mo ago

> In short, occupywallst.org is a living archive and occasional update point for a landmark left-wing protest movement that put economic inequality and corporate power at the center of national conversation starting in 2011. Is this true?

bfung 8mo ago
Dunno about the website or corp, but the occupy wall st movement was/is true. Happened right after 2008 stock market crash and people camped out on Wall Street in protest of bailing out the banks.
- irishcoffee 8mo ago
  One can make the argument that trump was elected because of OWS knock-on effects...
  - tolerance 8mo ago
    I’m listening—...
    - DiscourseFan 8mo ago
      Just, like, it was the first populist political movement following the ‘08 crash, and while Obama was supposed to be the liberal technocratic answer to the failure of neoliberalism, he was not able to create policies that restored the social and economic post-war order in the US. After Bernie Sanders lost the 2016 nomination, the populist left, which still retained a hope of a new kind of society, no longer had a political representative, and Trump managed to clinch the nomination by campaigning in states that had been neglected by the Clinton campaign. Biden was another, more radical but still fundamentally liberal technocratic attempt to save the status quo of America politics, but the largest economic gains were for the educated professional class, and many people in the country felt left behind and ignored—-again, now with the backing of popular support, Trump won the 2024 election with a promise to completely reshape the country. And he has at least in part succeeded.

elaida73 8mo ago

>By anchoring borrowing costs at or near zero, the BOJ enabled Wall Street to borrow Yen cheaply and invest it with leverage into higher yielding instruments globally, such as U.S. treasuries, equities, and cryptography Think you mean crypto currency here?

largbae 8mo ago
They got the word wrong, but I don't believe cryptocurrency would count either: The interest rates at BoJ _are_ low, but to borrow anywhere near that low they have to have high quality collateral like treasuries.
soperj 8mo ago
No, they've got into cartography now. Have you never heard of a bitmap?

anonymous908213 8mo ago

[flagged]

cedws 8mo ago
Doubt that it’s LLM-generated given this is Justine Tunney’s project.
- sharifhsn 8mo ago
  It is most certainly LLM generated. Nobody but an AI prompted with “connect the unwind of the yen carry trade with Trump’s threats to acquire Greenland” would have ever written something like that. My guess is that she did a lot of research on the topic with AI then created this article partially with AI generated text.
  - kykat 8mo ago
    I definitely got a strong feel of LLM output reading it. Not sure if the points themselves have any merit, but I don't think that I'll go and run to buy jpy.
    - potsandpans 8mo ago
      Yes and feelings are real
- deleted 8mo ago
  [deleted]

drewbailey 8mo ago

> We saw silver drop 40% which hasn't happened since 1980 40% pullback but still up 150% over the past year..

airstrike 8mo ago
yeah, I stopped reading there
- anonymous908213 8mo ago
  Aww, then you missed the best part! Who wouldn't be head over heels for the opportunity to follow this financial advice and lose all of their "monopoly money" (funsie term for real cash!)? Call To Action This won't just be the big one. This could be the last one. If you've been preparing your whole life, knowing that something's coming, then this could be the thing you've been preparing for. One final opportunity to get the guys who did this. [...] The worst that can happen is you lose your monopoly money, but that's been happening anyway.
  - johnvanommen 8mo ago
    Yeah that’s a huge red flag
tartoran 8mo ago
Bitcoin is crashing hard too.
sharifhsn 8mo ago
I spoke with a silver expert a week ago before the crash and he said half the flow is speculative, structural flow will remain. Looks like he was right.
khuey 8mo ago
It was the same on Silver Thursday in 1980 too. And then it went sideways for a couple decades.

OGEnthusiast 8mo ago

This reads like LLM slop. The "carry trade blowing up" has been written about hundreds of time before, so it's not surprising it's so prevalent in LLM training data.

Supermancho 8mo ago
The assertion that metals tanked because of Warsh being picked, is particularly telling. Warsh is not a hawk, despite some media narratives. The Fed is stuck behind not raising rates while the debt is coming down on banking while POTUS is crazier than ever and lowering rates to raise inflation/debase the currency and debt. It's not going to take long to see where this path leads.
- othomp 8mo ago
  Not to mention that Congress is the one in control of the ship and they don't seem particularly keen on putting their hands on the wheel.

seydor 8mo ago

Nothing that cant be fixed with threats to invade okinawa or 100% tarriffs to matcha or sth

helios_invictus 8mo ago

I've skimmed this article, but what does this mean for most of the people in the US?

forgetfreeman 8mo ago
We are profoundly fucked.
- alex_young 8mo ago
  We always are. And yet, number go up.
  - forgetfreeman 8mo ago
    Tell that to Adolf Merckle.
largbae 8mo ago
The author is implying that BoJ can/might/will cause appreciation of the Yen, which will force folks who are short(borrowing Yen) to buy USD assets to go underwater, forcing liquidation to pay back the Yen, and appreciating the Yen more. It's possible but there is no guarantee it would be a disruptive feedback loop or this year or etc. If you believe them, then you can hedge buy either shorting TLT(betting treasury yields will rise), or going long Yen (e.g. FXY shares/calls). I bought some FXY calls but just enough to hedge the Yen prices of my upcoming Tokyo trip in case they're right.

1024core 8mo ago

I don't understand one thing: why would the Japanese government maintain a ZIRP or a NIRP ? What do they have to gain by doing so?

lbrito 8mo ago
Probably to stimulate the economy which has been stagnant in terms of GDP since the 90s
johnvanommen 8mo ago
It’s to control inflation. Basically, when currency is scarce, its value goes UP. When currency is plentiful, its value goes DOWN. The first scenario lowers inflation, the second raises it. After Japans bubble economy popped in the early 90s, they had asset values FALL. So the BoJ began stimulating the economy - trying to push UP inflation - by adding currency to the markets. The Carry Trade illustrates one of the dangers: Japan was trying to stimulate their own economy, to counteract the deflation caused by their bubble popping. But money doesn’t know borders, and though the money was intended to stimulate JAPANS economy, there was nothing stopping ANYONE from purchasing that currency. It’s not like you have to live in Japan to buy Yen. So the money (yen) was created in Japan, but ended up all over the world. This has consequences: * Japan ended up with mountains of US dollars. This is one of the reasons that Japan has more US Treasuries than China. This mountain of dollars lowers YOUR cost of living. Because USD is being acquired for The Carry Trade. This creates artificial demand for USD. * Because the yen is created in Japan but is then used for international commerce, it dramatically reduces the inflation that “printing money” would normally create. This is why Japan has more debt per capita than any country by far, by a factor of over 2X I am just an I.T. dude who invests in real estate. So what I just posted may be completely wrong. The carry trade has existed for about four decades; that’s my summary of how it affects us, from the perspective of a small time real estate guy.
- pjc50 8mo ago
  We're a bit far down in the thread, but I'd be interested in knowing why this alleged outflow of cheap yen didn't keep pushing the currency down. It's been flattish in the 100-150 band for decades. I had to fact check the Japan having most treasuries, it's true, see this chart: https://economicsinsider.com/top-15-largest-us-treasury-holders/ https://economicsinsider.com/top-15-largest-us-treasury-hold... As an aside, the presence of "Luxembourg" and "Grand Cayman" on that chart is a bit of a tipoff as to how the global economy works.

rvz 8mo ago

Either way, we all know a crash is due before the next decade (everyone is IPOing to the exit), and if you don't realize that by now, well...

barbazoo 8mo ago
I'll bite. Isn't as obvious to me as it is to you, I'm just a programmer, I don't know how the economy works. This is literally the first time in my life I heard anything about governments borrowing Yen like this and that this would become an issue. I'm aware of an "AI bubble" and the over-concentration on the "Magnificent 7". What else is obvious to people and why is the timeframe (next 4 years) so obvious?
- wilkommen 8mo ago
  The entire stock market basically functions as a funnel of wealth from the middle class to the rich right now. When OpenAI and Anthropic IPO, they'll be megacap stocks and 401ks and pension funds the world over will invest in them. Then insiders will cash out, and the AI bubble will collapse. USD will have transferred from the retirement accounts of middle-class people to the rich. This is how all stock market crashes work. This one is especially interesting because the middle class is already so squeezed - how many more times can they pull this trick off? Seems like it can't go on many more times.
  - machiaweliczny 8mo ago
    Yeah, I think people have had enough this time its not gonna fly
  - jart 8mo ago
    That's not how the Google IPO worked. If you bought that at IPO and held it this whole time, you'd be very rich by now. Which is why the financial system will never let that happen again. These days many of the companies that go public will be nefarious financial schemes in Florida that hired and fired a guy in a San Jose at one point (thus transforming the scheme into a Silicon Valley startup) and anything good like Anthropic you need permission to invest in them, or you invest in them by proxy. If you want to long OpenAI you then you long Microsoft. If you want to long Anthropic then you long Google. Guess which one the carry traders liked more these past few days?

mempko 8mo ago

This is a good analysis of the yen carry trade but i'd argue the causality is backwards. Record high margin debt in the U.S. is the root cause as it's a powder keg. The yen is just the fuse being lit. When system-wide leverage is this extreme, any funding sock (whether it's the BOJ rate hikes, hawish fed, or geopolitical event) can initiate the liquidation cascade. The yen carry trade is one source of that leverage but the fragility was baked in. If Japan didn't do anything something else would have cause the liquidation cascade, only a matter of time. The real story isn't Tokyo, it's that Wall Street built a house of cards and ran out of steady hands. I have a public ThetaEdge card that monitors margin debt and calculates the correlation with the S&P here: https://thetaedge.ai/public/thetix-card/42d9c6de-218d-4627-ab49-8608a854900b https://thetaedge.ai/public/thetix-card/42d9c6de-218d-4627-a...

topspin 8mo ago
> Record high margin debt $566B in margin debt. Is that actually a financial black swan amount of money? If 50% of that got "corrected" into Money Heaven on Friday, would it be more than a bad day at the stock market?
- mempko 8mo ago
  You're right that $566B alone isn't a black swan. That FINRA figure only captures retail and small institutional margin at broker-dealers. It excludes prime brokerage (hedge funds), securities-based lending, and repo markets. Conservative estimates put total leveraged exposure at $10-15 trillion. The $566B is maybe 5% of the iceberg. I see visible margin debt as both a canary and a proxy. It's a canary because retail cracks first (less sophisticated risk management, stricter regulatory margin). It's a proxy because when visible leverage contracts, it usually means hidden leverage is contracting too. They're exposed to the same assets. When FINRA margin debt starts falling, it's not just a warning, it's confirmation that system-wide deleveraging is already underway. That's my 2c. Does that make sense?
  - topspin 8mo ago
    > a canary and a proxy Whatever shenanigans are appear in the public record, multiply by 10x to approximate of the real story. > Does that make sense? Yep. 1929 called. Just to gloat. They don't want their market back.

knuckleheads 8mo ago

It is a shame that jart got control of @OccupyWallSt and occupywallst.com and never gave it up. It seems like her politics and views are very out of line with many of the people who were originally involved in that movement. Repurposing occupywallst.com for something like this compared to it's origin is a big disappointing contrast. https://web.archive.org/web/20111021162924/http://www.occupywallst.org/ https://web.archive.org/web/20111021162924/http://www.occupy...

jart 8mo ago
I was the one who registered it. Occupy as a movement has always been inclusive of people with different points of view. My job running the website and twitter has always been to give the people a voice. I think that's important, don't you? The only guy with more credibility than me in Occupy is Micah White but he's been growing vegetables in Oregon ever since he visited Davos a few years back. So I'm the best you've got.
- deleted 8mo ago
  [deleted]
- knuckleheads 8mo ago
  You in particular are my main criticism of Occupy as a movement. They lacked any sort of structure, shunned it in fact, that would have ripped control of these resources away from you once it became clear that you disagreed politically with the vast majority of the people involved. That you were allowed to keep control of those resources is emblematic of how Occupy could let all that energy dissipate into nothing.
  - jart 8mo ago
    What resources? OccupyWallSt.org only accepted enough donations to keep the 1-800 number and website online. I was smart enough to understand back then that an unemployed 26 year old activist living in a park wasn't qualified to manage the capital that was being offered to us. So what did I do? I gave you about twenty different links for various projects on the donation page to choose from.

IncreasePosts 8mo ago

Anyone doing any attempt at market analysis should lay out the trades they've made and the time frames they're talking about. So we can come back later and point a finger at them and laugh. It seems like their conclusion is "hold lots of yen"? We'll see I guess.

mekdoonggi 8mo ago

Bottom line is: buy Yen futures to screw billionaires. Sounds pretty good to me.

worik 8mo ago
Bottom line is: * Pay your debts * Own useful assets * Live in a peaceful stable country
- mekdoonggi 8mo ago
  Well duh. That's obviously what everyone should try to do, but it's nice to engage in a bit of flight of fancy. I like imaging a rogue group of retail investors buying up the yen, short squeezing carry traders and sticking it to the billionaires. Real life is much more boring, and involves habitual, long term good choices.

sharifhsn 8mo ago

Speaking as a quant that has followed this story closely for months (and was educated about the yen carry trade in my degree), this narrative is somewhat wrong and also very obviously LLM slop. It is true that the yen carry trade is currently being unwound and that it has significant implications for nearly all holders of treasuries. But claiming that ALL of the recent volatility is due to this one event is ludicrous. There are some blatant falsities, like saying that gold and silver are historically uncorrelated??? And it’s clear that the author has a bias against the financial establishment (“monopoly money”), coloring the output. That said, there are legitimately interesting bits here I didn’t know about, like the Japanese institutional liquidation of US treasuries. I would not repeat this information to others without fact checking it, but if accurately described it’s an important space to watch. It’s not surprising that the LLM would get some things right, of course. One big problem with this article is the clear prompt given to connect x current event to the yen carry trade, like Warsh’s nomination and the Greenland nonsense. This creates a lot of noise. It’s basically the LLM looking for a pattern between these things instead of identifying a structural flow. It might not even be wrong, but it’s horribly biased towards finding a fake pattern, so I would never trust it. For the tech heads in HN that are excited to see a Justine Tunney post: don’t go crazy. If you’re really interested in learning about the unwinding of the yen carry trade, there’s plenty of information from actual experts to read about, not this slop.

sharifhsn 8mo ago
Also, while I’m not an expert on Japan, I’ve been following Gearoid Reidy’s commentary on Takaichi and the new Japanese economy and I think the fears expressed are significantly overblown. But this is also characteristic of many other market participants so I wouldn’t categorize this as something obviously wrong, just a disagreement.
Supermancho 8mo ago
> like the Japanese institutional liquidation of US treasuries There were news articles about this "happening" but this event never realized.
- sharifhsn 8mo ago

ReptileMan 8mo ago

>Following the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, U.S. markets opened on January 20 to a bloodbath. The S&P 500 fell 2.1%, the Nasdaq composite dropped 2.4%, Should someone that calls 2.4 percent movement bloodbath be taken seriously?

thegrim000 8mo ago
And fully recovered in less than 48 hours. What a bloodbath ..

panphora 8mo ago

Anger about the 2008 bailout makes sense. Yen carry unwind deserves attention. However, the trading call to action fails on market structure. Key counterpoints: - Global FX turnover runs near $9.6T per day (BIS, April 2025). A retail wave of calls will not move USD/JPY in a durable way at that scale. - /6J options settle on /6J futures. When you buy calls, you mostly push dealer delta hedging into futures, then dealers unwind as exposure changes. No sustained spot yen demand comes from that flow. - FXY calls track an ETF wrapper, not spot. - “Widowmaker trade” most often refers to repeated losses from shorting Japanese government bonds, not a long-yen crowd squeeze.

dist-epoch 8mo ago
That $9.6T is mostly back and forth non-directional HFT. Otherwise it would not take a day to swap $500 mil for commercial reasons (think buying a couple Boeing plane with Euros) to avoid too much market impact as documented in multiple interviews with currency dealers stating it takes them 1 day to "work" a $500 mil order. Retail can move FX, if it piles into one pair. But unlike the Boeing order they will also need to exit the trade at some point, which makes them vulnerable.
bandrami 8mo ago
> Anger about the 2008 bailout makes sense Does it? It cost the taxpayers nothing (in fact it made us money), it destroyed 4 of the 5 largest investment banks in the US, and it sent over 200 bankers, brokers, and auditors to jail. What part of that are people mad about, and why?
- tired-turtle 8mo ago
  If I had to guess, Americans say they dislike the 2008 bailouts to mean they dislike how Wall Street banks caused a recession.
  - bandrami 8mo ago
    I think most people think that TARP cost the government money (rather than the opposite) and that "only one banker went to jail" is still true (it hasn't been true since 2013). Which is honestly a pretty shocking indictment of the news media.

RayMan1 8mo ago

Great piece, I like the VIX part the best. Do you need any help with your site?

MaxfordAndSons 8mo ago

Can anyone recommend a good source to ramp up one's understanding of macroeconomics/monetary policy to a point where they can make sense of this? Starting from more or less a layman's understanding. Could be a book or course, but doesn't have to be university quality, a good blog or youtube channel could do.

johnvanommen 8mo ago
This is such a loaded question. Because the fundamentals are basic: Creating money out of thin air generally creates inflation, because theirs is more currency chasing the same amount of assets. But the Devil is in the details, because there are hundreds of currencies, one currency can be exchanged for another, and interest rates vary all over the world. Then once that starts to make sense, you open up a box called “derivatives,” and now the complexity just went off the charts. I only need to understand it in the context of loans on assets, so I can do the math in my head or in excel. Occasionally I’ll vibe code this stuff in Python. Because I’m not diving into the deep end of complexity, the books I absolutely LOVE are the cautionary tales of when it all blows up. In that respect, I think “when genius fails” is an all timer. Nearly everyone knows about the Great Recession, and the depression and the dot com bubble. But the collapse of Long Term Capital Management was the canary in the coal mine. LTCM blew up for all of the most predictable reasons, and as the name implies, nearly everyone involved in LTCM were at the top of their game. Another book that is more folksy is “a man for all markets“, a book about the dude who revolutionized stock options, largely due to a fascination with Blackjack! (The LTCM guys were big time gamblers too.) https://www.google.com/search?q=a+man+for+all+markets+by+ed+thorp https://www.google.com/search?q=a+man+for+all+markets+by+ed+...

wenbin 8mo ago

HN is full of tech savvy people. Yet an llm slop article is upvoted to the front page of HN... Imagine how deceptive llm slop contents are to the general population.

aeneas_ory 8mo ago

It‘s really hard to read this article, it smells of LLM generated slop once you get past the first couple of paragraphs - lots of negative parallelisms and lots of words without adding value to the sentence: > To validate the thesis that the Yen unwind is the primary driver of volatility, we must examine the sequence of events. The crash did not happen in a vacuum; it followed a precise timeline … > It wasn't just about rates anymore; it was about the stability of the U.S.-led global order > The unwinding of a carry trade is not a monolithic event; it is a cascade that ripples outward It‘s like almost in every paragraph. I don’t understand why this gets to be on the frontpage to be honest. It just reads horrible even if some of the points may be true (or hallucinated, who knows)

potsandpans 8mo ago
I have a sense that were in a moment of mass hysteria. You dot even understand what your reading anymore. Cant tell whether you're reading a hallucination or someones thoughts. "I don't agree / understand this, it must not be real!" Now, you have to wonder: is my grammar just poor? Or did I intentionally inject spelling and grammar errors into the output or an llm? Is it in my system prompt to do this?

jayd16 8mo ago

> then you buy treasury bonds that pay 4% > used by a generation of investors How short is a generation for investors? Aren't we near 20 year highs as far as US bond rates? I guess the point is that this is more about the Yen than about US bonds?

thrownawaysz 8mo ago

Sounds good, too bad I only have $5k available. Even if I spend all on FXY it won't gain that much from the current $58.6 in the forseeable future. Rich get richer I guess so nothing changes just the location.

ricksunny 8mo ago

Smacks of: "support my thesis and ignore alternative explanations and contrary evidence on whether there's even a there, there" AI-research slop.

WD-42 8mo ago

This is such a weird use of the domain, and kind of sad. I know the original movement was very diverse and had different ideas, but I'm not sure dispensing what ultimately amounts to financial advice from within the system really fits.

wahnfrieden 8mo ago
It doesn’t. The author is a Yarvinite and Musk worshipper
- Biganon 8mo ago
  Being trans and a Musk worshipper is wild
  - omnimus 8mo ago
    Also their software projects are quite amazing. It has to be someone living just on the edge of sanity. Schizo rollercoaster life of being at the same time smartest person in the room while completely missing forrest for the trees. How can someone be starting occupy wall street and few years later fully embrace the moldbugs CEO corporate monarchy. Brilliant and dumb and scary. It's truly wild.
    - wahnfrieden 8mo ago
      A lot of grifter fash latched onto OWS and built careers off their early involvement
- vidro3 8mo ago
  who is the author?
  - roxolotl 8mo ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justine_Tunney https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justine_Tunney

gwbas1c 8mo ago

A lot of the financial jargon makes the article hard to follow. I know I'm not the target audience, but I wish at times there were some plain English summaries of terms.

marcosdumay 8mo ago
The Japanese central bank arrived in zero effective interest rates in the 90s, and has been practicing negative effective rates (I.E. smaller than inflation) for a while. That had the effect that their banks took huge amounts of government loans and used it to buy foreign assets. As returns are higher in countries with higher interest rates, and lots of assets are practically safe, like government bonds, that is close to free money for them, and a very cheap loan to the receiving country. But last year their central bank made the interest rate positive. And investors are acting on the expected way, selling the foreign assets and paying off their government. The article is claiming that this is the cause of the recent turbulence in the investment markets.
- gwbas1c 8mo ago
  Thanks, that was generally how I interpreted the article. The issue was the terms. There was a lot of logic inversion that someone who's much more familiar with the terms could probably follow, especially when trying to understand how an investment in Microsoft was loosing value when the investment was from a loan in yen. Likewise, the end of the article uses a lot of abbreviations, especially when referring to Australian currency, which I just don't understand at all.
  - marcosdumay 8mo ago
    TBF, I don't think he explained why he things Microsoft is going down because of that. He talks about timing, but stocks aren't a very common carry trade investment (from any country), and it didn't start unwinding last week. Those abbreviations are mostly for foreign exchange derivatives. That is, contracts that don't involve trading currency, but have terms that depend on the price of those currencies. Derivatives are quick to react to anything, so if you are looking for some kind of trigger signal, you will find it there first. But they are also quick to react to nothing, so even if you find a trigger signal there are still some good odds that nothing happened. One one relevant index there that isn't a forex derivative is VIX. Well, it's supposed to measure how much the S&P500 will go down in the future, but I have no idea what actually goes in it. If you want to look into it, I think the place to start is this: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/vix-intro/ https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/vix-intro/ (Oh, and the article makes a great deal of VIX being low, but on the time we took to read and discuss it, it's already quite high.)

QuiCasseRien 8mo ago

Seriously, I really appreciate that article, explaining a lot a thing we see that news are able to understand and explain. God job

jongjong 8mo ago

Japan is interesting because it has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio of any developed country and most other countries in the world are increasing their debt-to-GDP ratio; in effect, they're all moving towards a Japanese reality due to the fiat system's lack of hard monetary constraints. If you look at Japan, the aspects of its economy and society which stand out the most are: - Rigid economic structure and processes. - Economy dominated by huge corporations, without much room for startups. - Highly concentrated urban population. - Population decline. Many young people are not dating and not getting married, can't afford much on their salaries working in the city.

jongjong 8mo ago

Whenever a government offers loans at an interest rate which is below the risk premium, that difference essentially represents the government giving the borrower free money paid for by all citizens through loss of buying power. So when Japan offered 0% interest loans to traders who used it to buy USD bonds, it represents the Japan government offloading the cost of the risk premium to its citizens and giving the difference to the traders for free... But then the traders give that free money to the US government where it helps to inflate the USD currency supply to make American asset-holders richer. The traders aren't actually profiting from the carry trade because the 4% return on US bonds doesn't cover the real inflation (loss of buying power) of the US dollar; their net worth in terms of buying power is actually the same or dropping. US asset holders are the ones actually reaping the benefit.

msejas 8mo ago

What a lot of people seem to not understand about the stock market, is that at it's basis it's just a supply/demand ratio. When it goes down it means someone is selling a lot, someone is cashing in, at least converting it into cash. For me it was obvious something was afoot with earnings and performance not matching the prices, I finally understand why now thanks to this article. The fact that there are rules for institutional investors and retail investors and us in retail have so little visibility and time to keep up, just shows more and more the game is a david vs a goliath, and we are all slingless david.

YZF 8mo ago
It's more than just supply and demand. It's the price discovery. So I guess you can say supply and demand curves. The curves change with the market psychology and with future expectations. Most institutional investors are not going to outperform your diversified portfolio. It's not like professionally managed funds are killing it while individual investors are losing. There are some specific examples of funds/people who do well but on average most do ... average.
- msejas 8mo ago
  Fully agree market psychology has a big influence in prices, TESLA is a great example of this. My main point is that most people, including the media, whenever there is a big crash in prices, like silver going down double digits, they act like the money evaporated and everyone that invested lost money. My point is that it's not the case, it dropped because there was a huge volume of people selling, making it cheaper. The people selling converted it all for liquidity, they just 'got' a lot of money in cash to spend, and they needed it or will use it for one reason to another. Retail investors don't have the time (unless you work in finance) to read all the news and information to be aware of situations that will trigger liquidity crunches like these past few months, while institutional investors will. My point here is you could have performed all of the value investing in the world and you are still eating losses, standard diversification theory is to put in gold when the markets are unstable, as it appreciates in time of high volatility, we are in times of extreme volatility and gold crashed, it makes no sense unless you have visibility in the institutional investing trends.

deleted 8mo ago

[deleted]

thegrim000 8mo ago

Utter rubbish from an extremely biased source. Every time they say something like "didn't you notice X" or "your portfolio must look like Y" the answer is nope, you're completely wrong. Every time they talk about some major "crash" you can just go look at it and see that it recovered within 48 hours and looked identical to dozens of other events through recent history. The outright calls for violence + intentionally destroying our own economy to "stick it to the man" at the end surely make me believe this is some rational analysis.

meindnoch 8mo ago

Sir, just tell me what do I do to make money! Do I buy? Do I sell? And what?

nojvek 8mo ago
Buy when others are selling. Sell when others are buying.
- meindnoch 8mo ago
  Thank you sir!!

Havoc 8mo ago

Seems like a pretty fragile analysis