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I bought BYD stock in 2025 before split in the hope that their market dominance will translate to great returns. The stock has pretty consistently traded down s

by malshe 10mo ago

I bought BYD stock in 2025 before split in the hope that their market dominance will translate to great returns. The stock has pretty consistently traded down since then. Meanwhile Tesla stock soared purely on the air coming out of Elon’s mouth.

hn_throwaway_99 10mo ago
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." But as another comment pointed out, they have tons of debt, and TFA states that their "revised" target was revised downward, meaning earlier stock valuations were priced for higher sales.
omarforgotpwd 10mo ago
[flagged]
- lawlessone 10mo ago
  Do you own stock in them? it's the only thing you ever comment about.
  - sebmellen 10mo ago
    Perhaps it’s Elon’s HN account!
    - lawlessone 10mo ago
      haha, i wondered, but it's too friendly to be him
dzhiurgis 10mo ago
Chinese stocks don’t seem to follow any reality either. BYD is basically flat over 5 years.
- Tiktaalik 10mo ago
  The explanation that I'm finding more and more compelling is that this is because there's actual competition in China, whereas in the west conglomerates have been able to carve up the market into fiefdoms and feast, with increasing amounts of cash that they can funnel into dividends and buybacks. From the NA vehicle POV it doesn't look healthy. Stocks of the major auto makers have done well this year, while product gets more and more expensive and limited. Barely seems possible to buy anything but a F150like anymore.
  - thesmtsolver2 10mo ago
    Outside of EVs and more broadly China rates near the bottom for market freedom https://gfmag.com/data/economic-freedom-by-country/ https://gfmag.com/data/economic-freedom-by-country/ If the broader market is rigged, investors don’t rush in for just one segment.
    - bparsons 10mo ago
      Interesting definition of freedom. The top three countries happen to be the places most permissive to international tax dodgers.
      - Sayrus 10mo ago
        > produced by the Heritage Foundation > Twelve are the factors related to four key aspects of the economic environment that are graded from 0 to 100 and averaged to determine a country’s score: rule of law (and related sub-categories: property rights, government integrity, judicial effectiveness); government size (government spending, tax burden, fiscal health); regulatory efficiency (business, labor and monetary freedom); open markets (trade, investment and financial freedom). Quite the definition they made up.
        atvrager 10mo ago
        > produced by the Heritage Foundation why bother to read past that? save yourself some time.
Etheryte 10mo ago
This is the story of nearly every Chinese stock ever. Their market is very different and even simple intuitions don't carry over.
- culi 10mo ago
  Anytime China targets an industry we get a situation where basically every major city has their own brand that they're backing. There's a lot more competition in China compared to western markets that tend to be dominated by a few major players. There's over 100 EV brands in China today, e.g. BYD (Shenzhen), NIO (Hefei), GAC Aion (Guangzhou), and SAIC (Shanghai) There's been a lot written about China's "Fiscal Federalism" https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0147596722000294 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01475...
  - narrator 10mo ago
    How they do financial bailouts by printing their own debt-free money and having fine-grained control of the banking system is also something that the west doesn't do.
    - eru 10mo ago
      Chinese cities can't print their own money. > How they do financial bailouts by printing their own debt-free money [...] What do you mean by that? > [...] and having fine-grained control of the banking system is also something that the west doesn't do. Giving bureaucrats even more levers to pick winners badly isn't a good idea. There's a reason China isn't as rich as the west.
      - narrator 10mo ago
        Non-performing loans of state-owned entities get bought by asset management companies (AMCs) with AMC liabilities. People's Bank of China liquifies AMC Liabilities so the banks keep lending.[1] AMCs often then can't pay because the state-owned entity isn't able to pay on the loan it bought. They then get bailed out by the Ministry of Finance, but the actual source of funds inside the government is difficult to discern [2]. [1] https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/apr/chinas-monetary-policy-framework-and-financial-market-transmission.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/apr/chinas... [2] https://newbagehot.yale.edu/docs/china-1999-asset-management-corporations?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://newbagehot.yale.edu/docs/china-1999-asset-management...
nutjob2 10mo ago
> Meanwhile Tesla stock soared purely on the air coming out of Elon’s mouth. Wrong orifice.
newyankee 10mo ago
No AI, self driving hype in BYD
- culi 10mo ago
  BYD's self-driving is free and much more widely available. Not to mention it uses LiDAR. I'm not gonna get into whether or not their God's Eye is better or worse than Tesla's FSD but it's at least widely acknowledged that they are at least comparable. Tesla is also not very transparent so it's hard to cite statistics but a recent study found that Tesla had the highest rate of fatal accidents of any brand in the US https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study
thegreatpeter 10mo ago
Purely on the air coming out of Elon’s mouth as well as the 1 million cars sold world wide, 165 successful Falcon 9 launches and 9 million Starlink subscriptions
- sgerenser 10mo ago
  SpaceX’s success have no bearing on Tesla. And Tesla’s sales for the year are down for the second year in a row. Hardly a logical reason for the stock to go up.
  - eru 10mo ago
    You are right that SpaceX is a separate company. > And Tesla’s sales for the year are down for the second year in a row. Hardly a logical reason for the stock to go up. If the market originally expected and priced in an even bigger decline, the stock would logically go up. Because of all the possible anticipations stock price movements are hard to understand, even in retrospect.
  - tonyhart7 10mo ago
    "Hardly a logical reason for the stock to go up" I think its because Elon would continue to be CEO of tesla , Elon is a brand at this point its well known "brand", Yes there is a lot to hate but you cant ignore his huge follower I mean Elon can come to Saudi and Saudi can invest in his company because they like him, that is just the way it works
  - andrewinardeer 10mo ago
    Tesla is more than one person. Plenty of incredibly talented people at Tesla that is not Elon.
    - ulfw 10mo ago
      Who haven't launched an actual proper real new car in a decade except for one that failed utterly
NooneAtAll3 10mo ago
your very mistake was trading stocks at all stocks and the whole money-as-a-business is US thing - making actual product is the China thing
lossolo 10mo ago
Chinese stock market is very different than US. In US you have like 62% of Americans reporting owning stock (including via mutual funds/retirement accounts) and in China, it's single digits participation. And China's market is famously retail heavy one, there were some studies showing that Shanghai Stock Exchange retail trading is 80%+ of volume vs ~10% in the US. There is less hype and they are also not affected as much as US if stock goes down or stays flat.
- seanmcdirmid 10mo ago
  The Shanghai stock exchange is still too heavy on insider trading, and consumer investors feel it is more like gambling than investing. Like, you could wager some money on a mahjong game, or you could blindly pick a stock and hope you can get some money by riding in the wake of a connected insider trader. If you just want to invest money, there is real estate or investing in a family member’s business. Pensions and other institutions in need of safe (in aggregate) investments won’t go near the SSE yet. China is doing more things right but still has a long way to go on other things.
  - eru 10mo ago
    > The Shanghai stock exchange is still too heavy on insider trading, [...] What does that mean? Insider trading is good for the function of the market: it makes sure information is reflected in prices sooner, benefiting the general public. > Like, you could wager some money on a mahjong game, or you could blindly pick a stock and hope you can get some money by riding in the wake of a connected insider trader. If you are a clueless retail investor, buy a low cost index fund. Why would you be picking stocks?
    - idiotsecant 10mo ago
      That's a spicy meatball. And also very stupid, but I admire the lack of foresight it takes to advocate for insider trading. What's your next hot take? Can i suggest 'Epstein did nothing wrong'?
paxys 10mo ago
The Chinese economy isn't set up to endlessly create value for the capital-owning class, so you are never going to profit off of Chinese companies and stocks in the way we are used to in the west.
mullingitover 10mo ago
In the combination Keynesian Beauty Contest[1] and casino that passes for an equity market in the US, everyone knows that Tesla is ugly as hell, but everyone also knows that everyone knows that it will get votes, so the show goes on. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest
- eru 10mo ago
  What do you mean by 'everyone'? Tesla usually has quite a bit of short interest.
- idiotsecant 10mo ago
  Only works until it doesn't.
  - dandanua 10mo ago
    Or until they have enough power and influence to hack the government so the money flow will never end
viktorcode 10mo ago
For the major part BYD sales performance is dependent on government subsidies in the country where they sell three quarters of all the cars they produce. That is a high risk factor investors don't like.
- dworks 10mo ago
  Can you provide a source for the government subsidies you say BYD is dependent on?
  - viktorcode 10mo ago
    Here's the recent news on that: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-signals-it-will-pull-plug-subsidies-evs-with-five-year-plan-exclusion-2025-10-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-...
    - tw1984 10mo ago
      nice article. excellent proof that the whole industry is indeed driven by market force and profitability. > "11 out of 17 listed Chinese automakers were profitable." > "93 of 169 automakers operating in China have market shares below 0.1%."
ralph84 10mo ago
Auto manufacturing is low margin and capital intensive. BYD is valued as an auto manufacturer. Tesla is not. Even all of that aside, the idea that foreign investors will be allowed to meaningfully participate in the upside of Chinese companies is questionable. Every Chinese company is one recapitalization away from zeroing out the common stock owned by foreigners. What are they gonna do, sue in Chinese court?
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  For quite some time, Warren Buffett was a BYD investor via Berkshire Hathaway. If you tried to get into EV stocks after the Tesla exuberance started, you were already mostly too late. > The filing by Berkshire’s energy subsidiary recorded the value of its BYD investment as zero as of the end of March, down from $415 million at the end of 2024. > Buffett’s company began investing in Shenzhen-based BYD in 2008, when it paid $230 million for about 225 million shares, equivalent to a 10% stake at the time. > It began selling those shares in 2022 after BYD’s share price had risen more than twentyfold. Warren Buffett’s fund exits BYD after a 17-year investment that grew over 20-fold in value - https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/22/investing/warren-buffet-berkshire-hathaway-exits-byd https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/22/investing/warren-buffet-berks... - September 22nd, 2025
  - Seattle3503 10mo ago
    That investment predates Xi Jinping's leadership.
  - profsummergig 10mo ago
    This is fascinating, because from what I've heard, Warren Buffett did not favor tech stocks. Does anyone know what gave Buffett the faith that this company was a real deal?
    - dalyons 10mo ago
      They “just” were a battery company then. Is that considered tech?
    - 10mo ago
dd36 10mo ago
It’s stock manipulation.
refurb 10mo ago
Stock prices are forward looking. You bought BYD after it had been hyped to the moon. Of course the price doesn’t move when it meets sales expectations.
- chmod775 10mo ago
  Yeah, and if you have decent eyesight you can look forward even further to see the bubble popping.
maxdo 10mo ago
it make sense with geo politics, governments started slowly using same playbook, banning chinese cars anywere possible because of real risks of espionage etc.
stouset 10mo ago
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Also, their market position has already been factored in by market participants with multiple orders of magnitude greater capital and access to information about the company than you do. Thats not to say the market valuation is accurate, but it does mean that you guessing which way the market has mis-valued the stock is a coin flip.
Lerc 10mo ago
One of the things that got him in trouble with the authorities was publicly stating that he thought Tesla stock is overvalued.
njarboe 10mo ago
BYD does not make most of its revenue on BEVs. It is mostly batteries and more plugin hybrids than BEVs and they lose money selling BEVs (less than almost all other electric car makers though). Tesla make only BEVs and make a profit doing so (the only? large maker to consistently do so).
- dworks 10mo ago
  I believe Tesla's profits are from carbon credits, not vehicle sales.
  - LanceJones 10mo ago
    They have positive gross margin and net margin. That's not ZEV credits.
- thg 10mo ago
  Tesla was only profitable the last few quarters due to selling their carbon credits to other companies. They'd have lost money otherwise. And since Trump basically did away with that, Tesla is no longer a profitable company now.
omgwtfbyobbq 10mo ago
My guess is that Tesla is doing better because FSD has improved significantly over the past few months. Even with that, most of the recent increase has been them regaining the valuation they lost earlier this year.
- toxic72 10mo ago
  Source?
  - omgwtfbyobbq 10mo ago
    My use of V3/V4 daily and other anecdotes. https://nypost.com/2025/12/31/tech/tesla-owner-completes-first-fully-autonomous-drive-across-america-and-elon-musk-weighs-in-on-the-historic-road-trip/ https://nypost.com/2025/12/31/tech/tesla-owner-completes-fir... https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1pmnilm/second_fully_driverless_tesla_spotted_in_austin/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1pmnilm/se...
- Alconicon 10mo ago
  Talking about FSD has increased, nothing more. There is still the law suite about FSD and the old hardware. There is still Elon the hitler Musk Oligarch who wielded a chainsaw. There were plenty of FSD videos last year and the year before showing that FSD is working. The question is still, is it working good enough, and what will be the business of a robotaxi. The Taxi market overall is not that big, competition is hard and the most critical thing is peak demand. In parallel random people believe tesla will wipe out the whole taxi industry + private cars tomorrow. Ignoring competition and everything else. Aaand as an edit: When it finally works, people will tell you "told you so look at it, FSD works" yeah really? Of course it works but it was promised from Musk that 2020 all these Teslas will drive autonomsly. Its 2026
  - omgwtfbyobbq 10mo ago
    The performance of V3 and V4 have improved significantly. I use them daily, more V3 than V4. It's partially about fully automated cars, but that's barely started. IMO, it's more about them as ADAS now. And it's not just about whether anyone else will catch up in terms of automation/ADAS, it's about whether anyone else will catch up in terms of manufacturing+automation/ADAS. Edit- And yes, Elon acting like that doesn't help, but Tesla isn't Elon.
chvid 10mo ago
I am a China perma bull and a panda hugger but most of my money is in the US. US capital is the completely dominant center of global capital and it will be so for decades to come. Ultimately this will flip too as China becomes the global economic center but I am not quite sure what it will look like and I don't assume the process of capital allocation will be exactly the same as it is today in the US-system (there may be more state directed investment, more bank lending, perhaps less public speculation, or even novel financial structures). That said - Chinese stocks had a good year in 2025 and are currently on a run - and there is certainly a lot of value there.
bytesandbits 10mo ago
I could give you many reasons. I see where you went wrong, here are some to think about: - next time don't just look at stock value and volume. Look at cashflow - Consider that most investment volume comes from institutional investors in Wall Street, not in China. Even Chinese investment is routed through NY, Singapore, UK, etc, with the slight exception of Hong Kong. - Consider geopolitics before investing too. Trump really went all-in in tariffs that basically geofence EV business to american brands. - The hope for BYD is in EU and UK markets. EU has also been extremely harsh to welcoming BYD and protectionist of their (German) auto makers. This hasn't avoided BYD entering the market, but also has stopped them from shipping en masse. Might change. - BYD is not a competitor to Tesla. BYD market is the low end market mostly. For example, what today in EU is Dacia (1st or 2nd best seller by number of units). Tesla on the other hand is purposely set up as a mid-high seller. It is too expensive for the cheap segment of the market (10-20k) and is well below luxury vehicles. Different market segment, also better margins in that segment. - Auto industry is cyclical not defensive. In times of economic uncertainty like today, if you want a solid investment you should look at defensive not cyclical. - Generally it is a bad idea for retailers to invest in Chinese HQed companies due to the complex geopolitics that surrounding the stock. For example, you have severe limitations in stock market products and they have tight regulation, unlike the US where you have a free-market. - Consider the market of derivatives. Very different market of futures in China vs the US. - Tesla is also a self-driving company and robotics company. It would be better compared to XPENG than to BYD. - Tesla owns the EV market in North America. Period. This is the reality today. - On top of all that yes the stock is hyped up. But you should know that and invest with that in mind. Being full blown rational in an irrational market will not work.
- tpm 10mo ago
  > - The hope for BYD is in EU and UK markets. EU has also been extremely harsh to welcoming BYD and protectionist of their (German) auto makers. This hasn't avoided BYD entering the market, but also has stopped them from shipping en masse. Might change. The way this will change is Chinese companies opening factories in the EU. BYD is opening one in Szeged, Hungary soon.
torginus 10mo ago
Can you even own Chinese stock as a foreigner? I thought Chinese 'stock' was essentially 'IOU's held by a foreign third party who holds it on your behalf. I would not trust a significant amount of money to such a scheme.
- lurking_swe 10mo ago
  it’s not very hard to trade directly on the hong kong stock exchange. https://www.investasian.com/stock-market/hong-kong-brokerage-account/ https://www.investasian.com/stock-market/hong-kong-brokerage...
cowsandmilk 10mo ago
I like this quote from Dan Wang's 2025 letter: > Part of the reason that China’s stock market trends sideways is that everyone’s profits are competed away. Big Tech might enjoy the monopolistic success smiled upon by Peter Thiel, coming almost to genteel agreements not to tread too hard upon each other’s business lines. Chinese firms have to fight it out in a rough-and-tumble environment, expanding all the time into each other’s core businesses, taking Jeff “your margin is my opportunity” Bezos with seriousness. https://danwang.co/2025-letter/ https://danwang.co/2025-letter/
- piyuv 10mo ago
  Is that a fancy way of saying “communist” China has real, authentic capitalism and “capitalist” US has monopolies all over?
xedeon 10mo ago
> I bought BYD stock in 2025 before split in the hope that their market dominance will translate to great returns. The stock has pretty consistently traded down since then. Meanwhile Tesla stock soared purely on the air coming out of Elon’s mouth. Interesting take there. Tesla Model Y is the #1 best-selling car globally in 2025 for the third year. Meanwhile, your BYD is bleeding from real price wars and demand slumps. Tesla's valuation? Still baked in autonomy, energy, and AI upside not just car volume. Calling it "air" while hyping your own wishful dominance is nothing but peak projection.
- checker659 10mo ago
  I can't tell if this is satire or serious.
  - deleted 10mo ago
    [deleted]
  - xedeon 10mo ago
    You are clearly clueless about the current state of EVs. I'm willing to bet you haven't even driven or owned a Tesla or BYD. So you're uninformed at best.
    - AlexandrB 10mo ago
      All I know is I'd never buy a Tesla. Having seen them up close, the quality control is clearly not priority one. Unacceptable for a vehicle at that price.
      - xedeon 10mo ago
        > All I know is I'd never buy a Tesla. Having seen them up close, the quality control is clearly not priority one. Unacceptable for a vehicle at that price You must be trolling. 'Having seen them up close' isn't a serious basis for an opinion on an any vehicle. Take a proper 24-hour test drive and then talk about build quality.
- 10mo ago

by malshe 10mo ago

hn_throwaway_99 10mo ago

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." But as another comment pointed out, they have tons of debt, and TFA states that their "revised" target was revised downward, meaning earlier stock valuations were priced for higher sales.

omarforgotpwd 10mo ago

[flagged]

lawlessone 10mo ago
Do you own stock in them? it's the only thing you ever comment about.
- sebmellen 10mo ago
  Perhaps it’s Elon’s HN account!
  - lawlessone 10mo ago
    haha, i wondered, but it's too friendly to be him

dzhiurgis 10mo ago

Chinese stocks don’t seem to follow any reality either. BYD is basically flat over 5 years.

Tiktaalik 10mo ago
The explanation that I'm finding more and more compelling is that this is because there's actual competition in China, whereas in the west conglomerates have been able to carve up the market into fiefdoms and feast, with increasing amounts of cash that they can funnel into dividends and buybacks. From the NA vehicle POV it doesn't look healthy. Stocks of the major auto makers have done well this year, while product gets more and more expensive and limited. Barely seems possible to buy anything but a F150like anymore.
- thesmtsolver2 10mo ago
  Outside of EVs and more broadly China rates near the bottom for market freedom https://gfmag.com/data/economic-freedom-by-country/ https://gfmag.com/data/economic-freedom-by-country/ If the broader market is rigged, investors don’t rush in for just one segment.
  - bparsons 10mo ago
    Interesting definition of freedom. The top three countries happen to be the places most permissive to international tax dodgers.
    - Sayrus 10mo ago
      > produced by the Heritage Foundation > Twelve are the factors related to four key aspects of the economic environment that are graded from 0 to 100 and averaged to determine a country’s score: rule of law (and related sub-categories: property rights, government integrity, judicial effectiveness); government size (government spending, tax burden, fiscal health); regulatory efficiency (business, labor and monetary freedom); open markets (trade, investment and financial freedom). Quite the definition they made up.
      - atvrager 10mo ago
        > produced by the Heritage Foundation why bother to read past that? save yourself some time.

Etheryte 10mo ago

This is the story of nearly every Chinese stock ever. Their market is very different and even simple intuitions don't carry over.

culi 10mo ago
Anytime China targets an industry we get a situation where basically every major city has their own brand that they're backing. There's a lot more competition in China compared to western markets that tend to be dominated by a few major players. There's over 100 EV brands in China today, e.g. BYD (Shenzhen), NIO (Hefei), GAC Aion (Guangzhou), and SAIC (Shanghai) There's been a lot written about China's "Fiscal Federalism" https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0147596722000294 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01475...
- narrator 10mo ago
  How they do financial bailouts by printing their own debt-free money and having fine-grained control of the banking system is also something that the west doesn't do.
  - eru 10mo ago
    Chinese cities can't print their own money. > How they do financial bailouts by printing their own debt-free money [...] What do you mean by that? > [...] and having fine-grained control of the banking system is also something that the west doesn't do. Giving bureaucrats even more levers to pick winners badly isn't a good idea. There's a reason China isn't as rich as the west.
    - narrator 10mo ago
      Non-performing loans of state-owned entities get bought by asset management companies (AMCs) with AMC liabilities. People's Bank of China liquifies AMC Liabilities so the banks keep lending.[1] AMCs often then can't pay because the state-owned entity isn't able to pay on the loan it bought. They then get bailed out by the Ministry of Finance, but the actual source of funds inside the government is difficult to discern [2]. [1] https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/apr/chinas-monetary-policy-framework-and-financial-market-transmission.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/apr/chinas... [2] https://newbagehot.yale.edu/docs/china-1999-asset-management-corporations?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://newbagehot.yale.edu/docs/china-1999-asset-management...

nutjob2 10mo ago

> Meanwhile Tesla stock soared purely on the air coming out of Elon’s mouth. Wrong orifice.

newyankee 10mo ago

No AI, self driving hype in BYD

culi 10mo ago
BYD's self-driving is free and much more widely available. Not to mention it uses LiDAR. I'm not gonna get into whether or not their God's Eye is better or worse than Tesla's FSD but it's at least widely acknowledged that they are at least comparable. Tesla is also not very transparent so it's hard to cite statistics but a recent study found that Tesla had the highest rate of fatal accidents of any brand in the US https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study https://www.iseecars.com/most-dangerous-cars-study

thegreatpeter 10mo ago

Purely on the air coming out of Elon’s mouth as well as the 1 million cars sold world wide, 165 successful Falcon 9 launches and 9 million Starlink subscriptions

sgerenser 10mo ago
SpaceX’s success have no bearing on Tesla. And Tesla’s sales for the year are down for the second year in a row. Hardly a logical reason for the stock to go up.
- eru 10mo ago
  You are right that SpaceX is a separate company. > And Tesla’s sales for the year are down for the second year in a row. Hardly a logical reason for the stock to go up. If the market originally expected and priced in an even bigger decline, the stock would logically go up. Because of all the possible anticipations stock price movements are hard to understand, even in retrospect.
- tonyhart7 10mo ago
  "Hardly a logical reason for the stock to go up" I think its because Elon would continue to be CEO of tesla , Elon is a brand at this point its well known "brand", Yes there is a lot to hate but you cant ignore his huge follower I mean Elon can come to Saudi and Saudi can invest in his company because they like him, that is just the way it works
- andrewinardeer 10mo ago
  Tesla is more than one person. Plenty of incredibly talented people at Tesla that is not Elon.
  - ulfw 10mo ago
    Who haven't launched an actual proper real new car in a decade except for one that failed utterly

NooneAtAll3 10mo ago

your very mistake was trading stocks at all stocks and the whole money-as-a-business is US thing - making actual product is the China thing

lossolo 10mo ago

Chinese stock market is very different than US. In US you have like 62% of Americans reporting owning stock (including via mutual funds/retirement accounts) and in China, it's single digits participation. And China's market is famously retail heavy one, there were some studies showing that Shanghai Stock Exchange retail trading is 80%+ of volume vs ~10% in the US. There is less hype and they are also not affected as much as US if stock goes down or stays flat.

seanmcdirmid 10mo ago
The Shanghai stock exchange is still too heavy on insider trading, and consumer investors feel it is more like gambling than investing. Like, you could wager some money on a mahjong game, or you could blindly pick a stock and hope you can get some money by riding in the wake of a connected insider trader. If you just want to invest money, there is real estate or investing in a family member’s business. Pensions and other institutions in need of safe (in aggregate) investments won’t go near the SSE yet. China is doing more things right but still has a long way to go on other things.
- eru 10mo ago
  > The Shanghai stock exchange is still too heavy on insider trading, [...] What does that mean? Insider trading is good for the function of the market: it makes sure information is reflected in prices sooner, benefiting the general public. > Like, you could wager some money on a mahjong game, or you could blindly pick a stock and hope you can get some money by riding in the wake of a connected insider trader. If you are a clueless retail investor, buy a low cost index fund. Why would you be picking stocks?
  - idiotsecant 10mo ago
    That's a spicy meatball. And also very stupid, but I admire the lack of foresight it takes to advocate for insider trading. What's your next hot take? Can i suggest 'Epstein did nothing wrong'?

paxys 10mo ago

The Chinese economy isn't set up to endlessly create value for the capital-owning class, so you are never going to profit off of Chinese companies and stocks in the way we are used to in the west.

mullingitover 10mo ago

In the combination Keynesian Beauty Contest[1] and casino that passes for an equity market in the US, everyone knows that Tesla is ugly as hell, but everyone also knows that everyone knows that it will get votes, so the show goes on. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest

eru 10mo ago
What do you mean by 'everyone'? Tesla usually has quite a bit of short interest.
idiotsecant 10mo ago
Only works until it doesn't.
- dandanua 10mo ago
  Or until they have enough power and influence to hack the government so the money flow will never end

viktorcode 10mo ago

For the major part BYD sales performance is dependent on government subsidies in the country where they sell three quarters of all the cars they produce. That is a high risk factor investors don't like.

dworks 10mo ago
Can you provide a source for the government subsidies you say BYD is dependent on?
- viktorcode 10mo ago
  Here's the recent news on that: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-signals-it-will-pull-plug-subsidies-evs-with-five-year-plan-exclusion-2025-10-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-...
  - tw1984 10mo ago
    nice article. excellent proof that the whole industry is indeed driven by market force and profitability. > "11 out of 17 listed Chinese automakers were profitable." > "93 of 169 automakers operating in China have market shares below 0.1%."

ralph84 10mo ago

Auto manufacturing is low margin and capital intensive. BYD is valued as an auto manufacturer. Tesla is not. Even all of that aside, the idea that foreign investors will be allowed to meaningfully participate in the upside of Chinese companies is questionable. Every Chinese company is one recapitalization away from zeroing out the common stock owned by foreigners. What are they gonna do, sue in Chinese court?

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
For quite some time, Warren Buffett was a BYD investor via Berkshire Hathaway. If you tried to get into EV stocks after the Tesla exuberance started, you were already mostly too late. > The filing by Berkshire’s energy subsidiary recorded the value of its BYD investment as zero as of the end of March, down from $415 million at the end of 2024. > Buffett’s company began investing in Shenzhen-based BYD in 2008, when it paid $230 million for about 225 million shares, equivalent to a 10% stake at the time. > It began selling those shares in 2022 after BYD’s share price had risen more than twentyfold. Warren Buffett’s fund exits BYD after a 17-year investment that grew over 20-fold in value - https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/22/investing/warren-buffet-berkshire-hathaway-exits-byd https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/22/investing/warren-buffet-berks... - September 22nd, 2025
- Seattle3503 10mo ago
  That investment predates Xi Jinping's leadership.
- profsummergig 10mo ago
  This is fascinating, because from what I've heard, Warren Buffett did not favor tech stocks. Does anyone know what gave Buffett the faith that this company was a real deal?
  - dalyons 10mo ago
    They “just” were a battery company then. Is that considered tech?
  - 10mo ago

dd36 10mo ago

It’s stock manipulation.

refurb 10mo ago

Stock prices are forward looking. You bought BYD after it had been hyped to the moon. Of course the price doesn’t move when it meets sales expectations.

chmod775 10mo ago
Yeah, and if you have decent eyesight you can look forward even further to see the bubble popping.

maxdo 10mo ago

it make sense with geo politics, governments started slowly using same playbook, banning chinese cars anywere possible because of real risks of espionage etc.

stouset 10mo ago

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Also, their market position has already been factored in by market participants with multiple orders of magnitude greater capital and access to information about the company than you do. Thats not to say the market valuation is accurate, but it does mean that you guessing which way the market has mis-valued the stock is a coin flip.

Lerc 10mo ago

One of the things that got him in trouble with the authorities was publicly stating that he thought Tesla stock is overvalued.

njarboe 10mo ago

BYD does not make most of its revenue on BEVs. It is mostly batteries and more plugin hybrids than BEVs and they lose money selling BEVs (less than almost all other electric car makers though). Tesla make only BEVs and make a profit doing so (the only? large maker to consistently do so).

dworks 10mo ago
I believe Tesla's profits are from carbon credits, not vehicle sales.
- LanceJones 10mo ago
  They have positive gross margin and net margin. That's not ZEV credits.
thg 10mo ago
Tesla was only profitable the last few quarters due to selling their carbon credits to other companies. They'd have lost money otherwise. And since Trump basically did away with that, Tesla is no longer a profitable company now.

omgwtfbyobbq 10mo ago

My guess is that Tesla is doing better because FSD has improved significantly over the past few months. Even with that, most of the recent increase has been them regaining the valuation they lost earlier this year.

toxic72 10mo ago
Source?
- omgwtfbyobbq 10mo ago
  My use of V3/V4 daily and other anecdotes. https://nypost.com/2025/12/31/tech/tesla-owner-completes-first-fully-autonomous-drive-across-america-and-elon-musk-weighs-in-on-the-historic-road-trip/ https://nypost.com/2025/12/31/tech/tesla-owner-completes-fir... https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1pmnilm/second_fully_driverless_tesla_spotted_in_austin/ https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1pmnilm/se...
Alconicon 10mo ago
Talking about FSD has increased, nothing more. There is still the law suite about FSD and the old hardware. There is still Elon the hitler Musk Oligarch who wielded a chainsaw. There were plenty of FSD videos last year and the year before showing that FSD is working. The question is still, is it working good enough, and what will be the business of a robotaxi. The Taxi market overall is not that big, competition is hard and the most critical thing is peak demand. In parallel random people believe tesla will wipe out the whole taxi industry + private cars tomorrow. Ignoring competition and everything else. Aaand as an edit: When it finally works, people will tell you "told you so look at it, FSD works" yeah really? Of course it works but it was promised from Musk that 2020 all these Teslas will drive autonomsly. Its 2026
- omgwtfbyobbq 10mo ago
  The performance of V3 and V4 have improved significantly. I use them daily, more V3 than V4. It's partially about fully automated cars, but that's barely started. IMO, it's more about them as ADAS now. And it's not just about whether anyone else will catch up in terms of automation/ADAS, it's about whether anyone else will catch up in terms of manufacturing+automation/ADAS. Edit- And yes, Elon acting like that doesn't help, but Tesla isn't Elon.

chvid 10mo ago

I am a China perma bull and a panda hugger but most of my money is in the US. US capital is the completely dominant center of global capital and it will be so for decades to come. Ultimately this will flip too as China becomes the global economic center but I am not quite sure what it will look like and I don't assume the process of capital allocation will be exactly the same as it is today in the US-system (there may be more state directed investment, more bank lending, perhaps less public speculation, or even novel financial structures). That said - Chinese stocks had a good year in 2025 and are currently on a run - and there is certainly a lot of value there.

bytesandbits 10mo ago

I could give you many reasons. I see where you went wrong, here are some to think about: - next time don't just look at stock value and volume. Look at cashflow - Consider that most investment volume comes from institutional investors in Wall Street, not in China. Even Chinese investment is routed through NY, Singapore, UK, etc, with the slight exception of Hong Kong. - Consider geopolitics before investing too. Trump really went all-in in tariffs that basically geofence EV business to american brands. - The hope for BYD is in EU and UK markets. EU has also been extremely harsh to welcoming BYD and protectionist of their (German) auto makers. This hasn't avoided BYD entering the market, but also has stopped them from shipping en masse. Might change. - BYD is not a competitor to Tesla. BYD market is the low end market mostly. For example, what today in EU is Dacia (1st or 2nd best seller by number of units). Tesla on the other hand is purposely set up as a mid-high seller. It is too expensive for the cheap segment of the market (10-20k) and is well below luxury vehicles. Different market segment, also better margins in that segment. - Auto industry is cyclical not defensive. In times of economic uncertainty like today, if you want a solid investment you should look at defensive not cyclical. - Generally it is a bad idea for retailers to invest in Chinese HQed companies due to the complex geopolitics that surrounding the stock. For example, you have severe limitations in stock market products and they have tight regulation, unlike the US where you have a free-market. - Consider the market of derivatives. Very different market of futures in China vs the US. - Tesla is also a self-driving company and robotics company. It would be better compared to XPENG than to BYD. - Tesla owns the EV market in North America. Period. This is the reality today. - On top of all that yes the stock is hyped up. But you should know that and invest with that in mind. Being full blown rational in an irrational market will not work.

tpm 10mo ago
> - The hope for BYD is in EU and UK markets. EU has also been extremely harsh to welcoming BYD and protectionist of their (German) auto makers. This hasn't avoided BYD entering the market, but also has stopped them from shipping en masse. Might change. The way this will change is Chinese companies opening factories in the EU. BYD is opening one in Szeged, Hungary soon.

torginus 10mo ago

Can you even own Chinese stock as a foreigner? I thought Chinese 'stock' was essentially 'IOU's held by a foreign third party who holds it on your behalf. I would not trust a significant amount of money to such a scheme.

lurking_swe 10mo ago
it’s not very hard to trade directly on the hong kong stock exchange. https://www.investasian.com/stock-market/hong-kong-brokerage-account/ https://www.investasian.com/stock-market/hong-kong-brokerage...

cowsandmilk 10mo ago

I like this quote from Dan Wang's 2025 letter: > Part of the reason that China’s stock market trends sideways is that everyone’s profits are competed away. Big Tech might enjoy the monopolistic success smiled upon by Peter Thiel, coming almost to genteel agreements not to tread too hard upon each other’s business lines. Chinese firms have to fight it out in a rough-and-tumble environment, expanding all the time into each other’s core businesses, taking Jeff “your margin is my opportunity” Bezos with seriousness. https://danwang.co/2025-letter/ https://danwang.co/2025-letter/

piyuv 10mo ago
Is that a fancy way of saying “communist” China has real, authentic capitalism and “capitalist” US has monopolies all over?

xedeon 10mo ago

> I bought BYD stock in 2025 before split in the hope that their market dominance will translate to great returns. The stock has pretty consistently traded down since then. Meanwhile Tesla stock soared purely on the air coming out of Elon’s mouth. Interesting take there. Tesla Model Y is the #1 best-selling car globally in 2025 for the third year. Meanwhile, your BYD is bleeding from real price wars and demand slumps. Tesla's valuation? Still baked in autonomy, energy, and AI upside not just car volume. Calling it "air" while hyping your own wishful dominance is nothing but peak projection.

checker659 10mo ago
I can't tell if this is satire or serious.
- deleted 10mo ago
  [deleted]
- xedeon 10mo ago
  You are clearly clueless about the current state of EVs. I'm willing to bet you haven't even driven or owned a Tesla or BYD. So you're uninformed at best.
  - AlexandrB 10mo ago
    All I know is I'd never buy a Tesla. Having seen them up close, the quality control is clearly not priority one. Unacceptable for a vehicle at that price.
    - xedeon 10mo ago
      > All I know is I'd never buy a Tesla. Having seen them up close, the quality control is clearly not priority one. Unacceptable for a vehicle at that price You must be trolling. 'Having seen them up close' isn't a serious basis for an opinion on an any vehicle. Take a proper 24-hour test drive and then talk about build quality.
10mo ago