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US economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, unemployment highest in 4 yrs
- ceejayoz 1y agoDon't worry, it'll all be sunshine and roses when the new commissioner is confirmed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E.J._Antoni https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E.J._Antoni
- NewJazz 1y agoWhat's interesting is that Trump should be happy with a weak labor market, as it helps him with that interest rate on debt problem he seems to have.
- throw10920 1y agoHuh, how does a weak labor market reduce interest?
- algorithmmonkey 1y agoThe Federal Reserve operates under a "dual mandate" from Congress to promote maximum employment and stable prices (low inflation). As unemployment rises, the Fed will lower interest rates to stimulate investment (increase employment opportunities).
- lenerdenator 1y agoThat really just feels like they're operating with the mandate to keep the cost of labor low, and the main way to do that is by not paying people enough.
- algorithmmonkey 1y agoCan you explain how the Fed is keeping the cost of labor low, and what they should do to help folks paid enough? I'm not sure I see the connection.
- ceejayoz 1y ago> Can you explain how the Fed is keeping the cost of labor low... The Fed calls workers being able to push for significantly increased salaries an "overheated labor market". https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/rising-immigration-has-helped-cool-an-overheated-labor-market/ https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/ris... "The same influx of immigrant workers that helped fill job openings also dampened wage pressures across the affected industries and states. At the industry level, sectors with some of the highest immigrant workforce growth, such as construction and manufacturing, saw the sharpest deceleration in wage growth (specifically, average hourly earnings) from 2021 to 2023."
- lenerdenator 1y agoMaybe I should expand it to say it sounds like they're under a mandate to keep people more-or-less economically stuck. They need to keep employment high and keep prices stable. Their main lever for controlling these two things is the prime interest rate. They kept that rate low for a long time. Capital now thinks that being able to get money for cheap is the norm. If it can't get money for cheap, well, that's a problem, because capital's mandate is to get more capital. If you're being incentivized to keep prices low and employment high by this institution, while also trying to accumulate capital for yourself, you are more likely to employ people at lower wages in order to keep prices low instead of taking the hit in reduced capital accumulation to employ people at higher wages while keeping prices low. Furthermore, any sort of sane prime interest rate now seems high to capital, so that additional cost is also factored in as why costs must rise and wages must drop to keep the accumulation rate of capital as high as possible. Is there anything wrong with accumulation of capital? In and of itself, no, but when you have people with net worths in the hundreds of billions of dollars making the decisions on how to allocate resources for their own continued benefit, well, you get a reduction in economic returns for the rest of the economy.
- vladimirralev 1y agoIf AI is the cause, it will only stimulate investment in more AI and accelerate the layoffs though. And because they don't have other tools, looks like this is exactly what they are going to do. Investment tends to concentrate massively at the festest-growing trend which this time is just replacing workers with AI.
- 0xbadcafebee 1y agoWhich will deepen the hole, until we crest over the AI peak of inflated expectations, bottom out in the trough of disillusionment, and start creeping up the slope of enlightenment. The next 12 months should be worsening unemployment, more rate cuts, higher AI stock prices. Once we bottom out in disillusionment (or companies run out of AI capital), the stock will plummet again, AI companies will die off, unemployment reduces, and rates return to previous levels. That's the "exists-in-a-vacuum" picture anyway. Stimulus, tariffs, a new war, or some other bullshit will change the results.
- rogerkirkness 1y agoIt indicates that the cost of capital might be too high to justify investing, so you can reduce it in order to spur investment (like during ZIRP).
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- amanaplanacanal 1y agoFederal reserve looks at unemployment rate when deciding whether to lower interest rates.
- cj 1y agoSimply put, when the economy is in the shitter, the federal reserve lowers interest rates. When the economy is doing well, interest rates tend to go up.
- lenerdenator 1y agoThat's the way it used to work. Then we went through a decade of stupidly-low interest rates in the 10s, while the economy was doing decently well. Maybe it was because of low interest rates. Though then you could argue capital just doesn't want to have to pay the price of operating in a borrowing environment where the average person can go down to the local bank, get a 90 day CD at 5-ish percent, and have a nice guaranteed source of steadily-growing rainy day cash, which, in turn, makes it less likely that they'll gamble it on stocks and bonds that capital holds most of its wealth in.
- 0xbadcafebee 1y agoThere's a bunch of advantages to high unemployment. It reduces inflation. You get to champion a bill to introduce a new stimulus package (whether or not it gets accepted, you look good). A rate cut means stock boosts which politicians/the rich and corporations like. It makes it easier for employers to hire (bigger pool to choose from), wages lower, and it tamps down on those pesky "union agitators" as everyone is fearing for their livelihood more. All the downsides are long-term and affect individuals more than corporations or politicians.
- hackable_sand 1y agoAn insurrectionist recommended by Bannon, go figure
- thrance 1y ago[flagged]
- andyjohnson0 1y agoJust as with social media and trust within society, destroying the credibility of US government economic statistics may be the intention. When nothing is trustworthy then lots of upsides may become available to exploit. And everything becomes deniable.
- dakiol 1y agoFrom Wikipedia: > Antoni graduated from St. Charles Borromeo Seminary with a Bachelor of Arts.[3] He then graduated from Northern Illinois University with a Master of Arts[3] and later a doctorate in economics in 2020 How can someone get a doctorate in economics when they studied "Bachelor/Master of Arts"?
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- lenerdenator 1y ago"Of Arts" just means an art, not necessarily "Art". You can get a Bachelor of Arts in Computer Science or a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science at my alma mater, albeit from different colleges. Maybe that art was the art of economics, which seems to be more subjective than actual painting.
- dragonwriter 1y ago“of Arts” comes from the Liberal Arts, the seven traditional fields covered in medieval universities, the Bachelor of Arts being the basic degree in medieval universities, the Master of Arts being the subsequent degree which also conferred the qualification to teach the liberal arts, and after those degrees were doctoral degrees in the “higher faculties” of Law, Medicine, and Theology. While no longer using the Trivium and Quadrivium comprising the traditional Liberal Arts as the sum of the programs, the name of the degrees has been retained widely, and used for degrees in almost any field of study, even while some institutions also offer Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees with other styles (particularly “of Science”). There is no consistent meaning or differentiation to the “of Arts” or “of Science” styles, though they may have signify institution-specific differences in curriculum at some institutions.
- jjice 1y agoI was under the impression that your graduate degrees didn't have to be related to undergrad at all, but I know nothing about these corners of higher education.
- throw0101c 1y agoA critique of his thesis: * https://old.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/1n23ixd/ej_antoni_is_unqualified_to_run_the_bls_his/ https://old.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/1n23ixd/ej_an...
- SilverElfin 1y agoIt means the federal reserve will do a rate cut soon. Stock market goes down and then up.
- rwmj 1y agoWon't the stock market go only up, if interest rates are cut? (For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not saying this is either a good or bad thing)
- algorithmmonkey 1y agoRate cuts are priced in at about 100% for a 1/4 point. It might go up for a 1/2 point, but that may also signal fear which could have the opposite effect. I think it's hard to say at this point.
- lantry 1y ago- high unemployment means the fed will do a rate cut, so markets go up - low unemployment means the economy is booming, so markets go up hmmm... the more I learn about the stock market, the more I believe in the limits of human understanding
- paulyy_y 1y agoSo much winning!
- nine_zeros 1y ago[flagged]
- MangoToupe 1y agoAh, it happened way earlier than that—it was their fervor for Reagan that caused us to mortgage our future for a short-term boom. You can tie so many of our current problems (debt addiction, outsourcing, vanishing of pensions, busting of unions, deregulation—basically, prioritizing the health of the market over american workers) directly to this phenomenon. MAGA is basically the attempt to continue to be in denial about this. Ironically, reagan had a large number of policies that are now considered to the left of the democratic party—it took two parties agreeing to be in pro-corporate economic lockstep to fuck us over. Such is the risk when you only differentiate parties over culture wars.
- AnimalMuppet 1y ago40 years since Reagan. That's quite a "short term boom".
- MangoToupe 1y agoWell, whatever length you want to perceive it as, it's certainly not a sustainable way to run a country. Except into the ground.
- ZeroGravitas 1y agoI was just listening to 1981 song/poem "B Movie" by Gil Scott Heron about electing Ronald Reagan and found it sadly very timely. > The idea concerns the fact that this country wants nostalgia > They want to go back as far as they can-- > Even if it's only as far as last week > Not to face now or tomorrow, but to face backwards
- dfxm12 1y agoThe Republican party has long held reactionary politics. You can barely describe them as conservative on most issues anymore.
- mrtksn 1y agoOkay, so there will be rate cut soon and the USD will become even weaker, right? Then with those tariffs, which are consumption tax on imports, will become even more pronounced as US added value part will be smaller percentage of the overall final price tag. So everything will be quite expensive if people still have money to pay, if not the margins and as a result the profits of businesses will go down. Is this an attempt to reduce the infamous American consumerism? Also maybe force companies to build more in US but wouldn't that require strong immigration as the unemployment is actually still quite low and those who lost jobs wouldn't be plug-n-play employees for manufacturing jobs that didn't exist before.
- NicoJuicy 1y agoTrump is a real estate guy. His real estate is worth more with high inflation and low interest rates ( like in 1970) See: Volcker shock.
- toomanyrichies 1y ago> Trump is a real estate guy. I mean, these days it seems like he's more of a meme coin guy. [1] "New crypto token boosts Trump family's wealth by $5 billion" 1. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-wlfi-world-liberty-financial-crypto-wealth/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-wlfi-world-liberty-financ...
- NicoJuicy 1y agoYeah, but he still has the perspective of 50 years ago. He still thinks banks and a strong dollar works against him. While everyone else got more rich, he went bankrupt.
- zahlman 1y ago> the USD will become even weaker You imply that it is already weak, but this doesn't seem to bear out considering current vs historical exchange rates.
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- pessimizer 1y ago[flagged]
- kiratp 1y agoSource?
- dakiol 1y agoThe greatest thing the rich ever did was convince the poor that the even poorer was stealing their money/jobs. You seem to be from the past.
- thrance 1y agoYou got sources for any of that?
- gdulli 1y agoFear.
- catigula 1y agoThe trump administration supports vast H1B immigration.
- krapp 1y ago>Half of all job gains under Biden went to illegal immigrants No they didn't, stop blindly parroting Trumpist propaganda. Biden was growing the economy, and Trump cratered it. Deal with it. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/17/politics/fact-check-donald-trump-jobs-biden-immigration https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/17/politics/fact-check-donald-tr... https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2024/07/21/employment-grew-more-under-biden-and-immigrants-did-not-get-most-jobs/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2024/07/21/emplo... I also note that your "fact check" is talking about immigrants, not illegal immigrants.
- phendrenad2 1y agoI believe in zero-sum economics, I.E, I don't believe that there can be a "global market crash", all crashes have an equal and opposite effect somewhere else. I'm expecting to hear that jobs are booming in some other countries. In fact, there is data on this. Those of you who experienced Silicon Valley at its height, I hope that this means we get to experience the next iteration of that, even if it's somewhere random on the planet.
- IAmGraydon 1y ago>I believe in zero-sum economics, I.E, I don't believe that there can be a "global market crash", all crashes have an equal and opposite effect somewhere else. I'm expecting to hear that jobs are booming in some other countries. In fact, there is data on this. Yeah this isn't right. Changing policy can reduce the value of assets across the board, everywhere. It's very possible. The money just disappears because those assets are no longer worth the same in the new environment. Sometimes everyone loses.
- phendrenad2 1y ago> Changing policy can reduce the value of assets across the board, everywhere If the value of everything changes uniformly, what difference does it make? If I can sell an ounce of gold and buy 1,000 gallons of milk, what does it matter if I briefly have $1,000 or $10,000 in my bank account while accomplishing this trade?
- AnimalMuppet 1y agoI would suggest that 1929 is a pretty decent example of a global crash. Economics can be positive sum, zero sum, or negative sum, depending on the situation. But in this instance, if the US is removing itself from the global scene, there may in fact be booms in other places.
- phendrenad2 1y ago> I would suggest that 1929 is a pretty decent example of a global crash How so? Did no one gain from it?
- bsimpson 1y agoWhen we were kids, my dad felt like he was always the last one to buy into the stock market. He would buy, it would peak, and then it would crater. I was gonna buy in when the tariff shock hit, but it started to rebound before I got in. The 40% rise since then feels so irrational (though it's "only" 20% if you ignore the tariff shock). I feel like I'm about to be my dad - watch the whole climb going "it's gotta come down, right?", capitulate at the top, and then have the bottom fall out.
- nemomarx 1y agoHow much are you timing when to buy vs buying in little bits continuously? If you just buy a set amount per month your cost will balance out better I think
- e40 1y agoDollar cost averaging is the way.
- Der_Einzige 1y agoDiamond hands is the way. Just keep holding!!!
- stogot 1y ago> Diamond hands is the way. Just keep holding!!! You’re mocking a well known, risk adverse market investment strategy.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- Der_Einzige 1y agoBecause an even more well known, even more risk adverse market investment strategy is right in front of you. BUY AND HOLD! If you're not renetech/a HFT company, you might as well give up on ever finding reliable arbitrage/alpha. You're not a market maker or market mover.
- catigula 1y agoI know a lot of people, especially those in the industry, don't want to deal with this, but this was the year of "AI agents". I'm not sure what else you'd expect.
- duxup 1y agoIs there much to indicate the losses are due to AI. I see a lot of stories but not a lot to make it clear if that is the case. I usually see it claimed with legit job numbers, but then very iffy connections to AI.
- JohnMakin 1y agoNot really, this was just on the front page of this site: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45129267 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45129267 What a nice self-fulfilling prophecy some people have here. Hype AI as a job killer, execs become convinced of the tech before any real results are delivered, use it as excuse for layoffs, something something job numbers, "SEE?? AI!"
- matwood 1y agoAI is the smoke screen companies are using to cut costs because they see things slowing down (tariffs and the general admin causing enormous uncertainty), and many are still recovering from all the over hiring during COVID.
- myrmidon 1y agoThis is "bad reporting", in my view, because it (intentionally) baits readers into drawing sweeping conclusions ("Trumps policies have been a complete disaster, I knew it!") from very little data and small effect sizes. This happens a ton on both sides of the political spectrum and I hate it. On the topic itself: If you want to bring formerly offshored industries back at scale (a overall dubious plan in my opinion), then high unemployment is a good starting point because it helps avoid labor shortages and price spikes in unrelated industries. But what CNN reports is too small to have much of an effect on that.
- add-sub-mul-div 1y agoThese same numbers come out and are reported on every month. It would be more conspicuous not to report on the August numbers.
- thenaturalist 1y ago> then high unemployment is a good starting point This strikes me as overly simplistic and optimistic. The real world is not a zero-sum-game where if someone loses someone else wins. Macroeconomics in today's world is an interconnected hot mess where I wouldn't dare to infer much except for that simple cause and effect chains surely do not work. What you deduce might be true in an otherwise stable and sunny economic climate, but we're far from that. - Trumps active hand in messing with the US economy (Going on an immigrant (labor) hunt, firing a FED governor and threatening Powell, buying into Intel, imposing tariffs coughed up by an LLM) - Unprecedented amounts of money are being singularly invested into "AI" and not much else - Consumer prices for Americans as a compound combination of tariffs and an expected weaker dollar if interest rates go down aren't playing well with peak unemployment Taking that all in, comparatively to only a couple of months ago, this setup is by far not the most desirable investment climate in the US for foreign investment. And while bringing back offshored industries sure sounds nice on paper, I'm wondering how that's gonna play out with a) historically high CoL in the US leading to b) higher wages required for the supposed high quality jobs coming back leading to c) high prices to purchase said goods.
- myrmidon 1y ago
- oxqbldpxo 1y agoLike and subscribe!
- kaycebasques 1y agoThis paragraph from the article is probably a bigger story than the August headline: > August’s job report also included a downward revision to June, which showed the US economy lost 13,000 jobs that month. It’s the first negative employment month since December 2020, and it brings to an end what was the second-longest period of employment expansion on record.
- dfxm12 1y agofor the first time in four years, the number of available jobs was lower than the number of job seekers Oof. This sounds particularly bad, not just for the economy, but for workers, no?
- p_j_w 1y agoMission accomplished then.
- asdev 1y agoAI hype is fading too, I think around mid 2026 stocks will crash
- latchkey 1y ago> AI hype is fading too Source? I see it growing in my business.
- Workaccount2 1y ago>Source? The AI gooners who lost their virtual girlfriend/boyfriend when GPT-5 came out, and wouldn't shut up about how awful GPT-5 was for a week.
- ulfw 1y agoYou see the hype even growing??
- latchkey 1y agoYes. AI utility is growing at an ever increasing rate. It is becoming more and more useful. That utility drives hype.
- asdev 1y agowhat business? if your sector isn't tech, then it's just a lagging indicator
- hereme888 1y agoI think we have to remember all the beneficial job cuts: DOGE savings: ~$205B, ~$1,273 per taxpayer. DOGE direct layoffs: ~68K, total federal departures ~178K; corresponding to savings of ~$1.15M per departure.
- dcre 1y ago"Through July, DOGE said it has saved taxpayers $52.8 billion by canceling contracts, but of the $32.7 billion in actual claimed contract savings that POLITICO could verify, DOGE’s savings over that period were closer to $1.4 billion." https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/12/trump-doge-contract-claims-savings-inflation-00498178 https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/12/trump-doge-contract... Great stuff!
- hereme888 1y agoYou think $1.4B makes sense, when the crazy contracts they've cancelled are easily way over that? Also, politico is not an authoritative source of information. They're rated as a left-leaning organization, known to be wrong, often.
- dcre 1y agoYes. Nearly everything they said they canceled either didn’t happen at all or the contract had ended before they canceled it.
- add-sub-mul-div 1y agoIs this a parody of someone who still believes the $200bn number?
- kccoder 1y agoWait, some people actually believed the numbers doge put out? Why? Do you also believe that tesla FSD will be available ten years ago?
- hereme888 1y ago
- jfengel 1y ago"...boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September to stimulate the economy" The new unemployment rate is 4.3% That's above the Fed's 4% target for full employment, but not all that high above it. By contrast, inflation is about 3% -- a full percentage point above the target of 2%, and 50% higher. Lowering target rates is supposed to lower unemployment and raise inflation. Once you hit full employment, additional money for wages increases money supply without increasing product supply. The Fed, of course, has more precise models than I've just described. But these numbers suggest to me that the Fed should leave rates as they are; they aren't any kind of emergency or pending emergency. The market is at or near record highs; it doesn't need its bubble expanded. I know the the Fed is under political pressure because politicians like soaring stock markets. And the pressure is now verging on threats. But it still seems unlikely that the Fed will cave quite so soon when the numbers say to do just the opposite.
- A_Duck 1y agoCentral Bank interest rate setting has a long lag time. You need to turn the wheel 12-18 months before the car turns.
- matwood 1y agoSure, which is why they were already on track to cut again as inflation was coming down. That was until Trump through his tariff grenade into the mix causing the fed to take on a wait and see approach.
- mothballed 1y agoI'm curious, if we eliminated the central bank and let interest rates float with private banks, would it have a similar lag time? Seems like it might let the market adjust faster and match supply and demand for loans better.
- altairprime 1y agoIf it behaves like gas prices, then they will travel one direction instantaneously and the other direction only after months of profit are accrued. Generally most markets selling tangible goods shift prices rapidly only to the benefit of sellers; one can expect interest rates to behave accordingly.
- JCM9 1y agoTech sector is very frothy at the moment with bloated staffing. It’s going to get worse before it gets better. Big tech has been doing slow layoffs and would be surprised to see much bigger rounds soon as shops shut down unprofitable projects and expect those left to do more with less. The use of RTO and other means to force folks out has squeezed out what’s gonna get squeezed out so now expect a shift to just flat layoffs. Some of the big tech companies have so many people that frankly aren’t needed. A ton of folks hired into vaguely defined “AI” roles doing “solutions” and product management nonsense that is ripe to be blown up the second the current hype slows just a bit. Heading into a period where that needs to get cleaned up. It’s not going to be via “AI” (although that’s the PR spin) but just old fashion slash and burn.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- fuckinpuppers 1y agoNot surprising. 1. Tariff uncerainty. Businesses love instability and inability to plan ahead 2. Mass adoption and prioritization of AI 3. Bullying and trying to take over the fed by the executive 4. Large scale downsizing of the government workforce 5. Government contract cuts, which trickle down to the private sector in multiple ways The executive branch is at war with the world and the middle and lower class of the US. They’re not even doing many favors for the upper class, the decisions aren’t even helping them a lot of the time
- ajross 1y ago> 2. Mass adoption and prioritization of AI FWIW we aren't really seeing any layoffs/downsizing/robot-onshoring due to AI yet. If anything the huge datacenter construction/deployment boom fueled by the AI race is helping the economic numbers.
- D-Coder 1y agoClearly Biden's fault. And Obama's.