16 ms·

Circuit breaker triggered in Japan for stock futures trading

249 points by perihelions 2y ago

returnInfinity 2y ago
They are determined to bring back some of the supply chain back to USA I don't know much, but this is the messaging
- piva00 2y ago
  It's the messaging which you need to apply a reality check: how is it going to happen? Let's say I'm an industrialist, I have an HQ in the USA while my products are made in factories around Asia (China, Vietnam, Taiwan), I invested some US$ dozens of millions to setup production where labour costs are lower, my whole pricing depends on comparative advantages: my USA HQ does R&D by well-paid workers, the designs are then dispatched to be produced at lower cost factories. Now my products will be taxed some 30-50% more, I will have a big drop in sales so the forecast for the foreseeable future is looking like a loss for many quarters, I'd need to invest some US$ dozens of millions to setup factories in the USA, hire people to do the work that Vietnamese workers do but paying US salaries, or invest a ton more in automation and robots to run these factories as cheap as I currently can in Asia. But my financial outlook is pretty bad, I won't be able to sell my products, there's a major risk there so I can't get very low interest loans since no bank can know if I'll be able to pay it. Also, should I invest this in case it will take some 5-10 years to recoup the investment? How will tariffs look like in that time frame? If I invest and competitors don't and tariffs get struck down/removed I will have just burnt money, evaporated it, while my competitors get an advantage by saving it. Repeat this across thousands of companies to get the scale of the dilemma. I will need to put more collateral to get cheaper rates, while it's looking like I will be potentially losing money until I manage to setup these factories. I also need suppliers, and they need to setup shop in the USA as well because if not my inputs will all be more expensive anyway from the tariff tax, so I'm being squeezed in that direction as well. Multiply this by thousands and thousands of companies, all depending on a global supply chain, how the actual fuck will this work out in reality to onshore production when these companies all got squeezed all at the same time? There is no basis in reality for the messaging, it's devoid of any actual plan, any regards for the potential impact not to the "economy™" but to all the people employed by all the affected companies who will see a massive drop in sales, the workers are the consumers and when they get laid off because the companies can't keep paying salaries it will further depress outlooks on sales, turning into even riskier deals for financiers to take to support the necessary investments to onshore production of entire supply chains. To top it all off there will be massive inflation since all prices went up overnight by being taxed through tariffs, less consumer spending, fewer products being purchased, companies earning less, firing people, less consumer spending, fewer purchases, so on and so forth. It's a death spiral completely triggered by maniacs, no confidence crisis, no major shock from a natural disaster (i.e.: a pandemic), just a bunch of lunatics trying to impose a new world order through decree. And stupid people eat this messaging up, they want to believe it will be all fine and dandy even if it's one of the stupidest acts ever taken by a major government... It's all just so fucking stupid, I still can't believe how it is all just plainly so stupid.
  - returnInfinity 2y ago
    That's a good analysis, better than what I could come up at least. Trump like tariffs, you can see his old videos about that. There is one offramp, which is that all tariffs come down and trump accepts that as a win. Also Bessent's friend Druckenmiller likes a consumption tax, and they think tariffs are a good consumption tax.
    - piva00 2y ago
      Thank you but I really don't think it should be considered "good analysis". It's an extremely basic analysis made by a layman (me) with just a cursory knowledge of macroeconomics, and average reasoning skills. The case that I could come up with it in 5 minutes while writing a comment on a forum just showcases how braindead this policy is, more than braindead, how one needs to be ideologically compromised to even float this idea as something that could work in reality. Whatever "model" the dumbfucks in the USA administration came up with to justify to themselves any support for this will meet with reality very, very fast, and the major problem here is that they are stubbornly ideological, Trump won't change his fucking demented mind when reality hits, he will double down like he usually does, and all of us will feel the pain, a large majority of the world's population will feel the impacts of this, layoffs are coming if this policy continues even for just a few months, businesses closing (big and small), lots and lots of suffering will be inflicted because Americans decided to elect a stupid man, surrounded by stupid sycophants. Just compare the current administration's background with any other serious nation on Earth, it's bonkers that the Americans are accepting being led by absolutely incompetent people: Education being led by an entertainment business person, Defence being led by a TV host, Health being led by an anti-science person whose claim to fame is being a relative of assassinated politicians, the list goes on and on. It's so absurd that I lost any respect I had left for the USA as a society, it's deathly sick and already rotting... Maybe this is the time it will be put in the coffin, just fucking sucks to feel that my loved ones will all feel the pain of this rotting. Edit: Just as an example of the idiocy, this is a comment from Bessent, probably the person in this administration who is the closest to being more technical: > Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted there didn’t need to be a recession and dismissed the long-term impact of stock market losses, using words like “choppiness” and “adjustment process” to explain the panic. And speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Bessent rejected the idea that people who want to retire soon had taken a serious blow. “Americans who have put away for years in their savings accounts, I think they don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what’s happening,” Bessent said. He added: “The reason the stock market is considered a good investment is because it’s a long-term investment. If you look day-to-day, week-to-week, it’s very risky. Over the long term, it’s a good investment.” The absolute denial of reality, coming from what most would consider the "competent grown up" in the whole administration. Absolute shambles...
- lawn 2y ago
  "The Jews are responsible for everything bad in the world". I don't know much, but this is the messaging (that I'm going to repeat ad nauseam so that more people will believe it). Don't be a part of the problem.
ninetyninenine 2y ago
China: "See?? we're not the enemy, the US is the enemy."
gpi 2y ago
Non paywalled link: https://archive.ph/Xo8zg https://archive.ph/Xo8zg
- ranger_danger 2y ago
  Endless captcha loops for me.
  - marcosdumay 2y ago
    There isn't a lot more there anyway. The breaker triggers at 8% changes on either direction, and was triggered at ~4:30 am (Tokyo). The exchange is open now anyway, so you can look how it's going.
    - bigmattystyles 2y ago
      Either way - that I didn't know. Do they all do this?
      - nighthawk454 2y ago
        Circuit breakers are now more common. The US has them at whole-market level and individual stock level. Somewhat like an API rate limit, there are tiered penalties - the bigger the intraday drop the longer the time-out period. In the worst case the market will be shut down for the day to cool off. This is one reason you occasionally hear about the exchange ‘stopping trading’ of a security. More details here: https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/stock-market-circuit-breakers https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-ba...
      - timr 2y ago
        More important is why they do it: it's a chance for the market to pause and rationally assess automated trades. The reason we're seeing it more often is because it's a reaction to stuff like "flash crashes", which weren't a thing (as much of a thing, anyway) before bots took over the market. Of course, journalism remains trapped in a death cycle of click-chasing stupidity. This means that the triggering of the mechanism itself has now become a source of hype to propagate the panic ("OMGOMGOMG the market fell so fast that it tripped the circuit breakers!! Panic! Flee! Run away!"), so it's less clear that the mechanism is a net good.
fzeroracer 2y ago
[flagged]
- tayo42 2y ago
  congress is complicit too. this could all be over anytime they want it to be
  - aoanevdus 2y ago
    Would they need a veto-proof majority for that to work? You’d need like half the republicans to go along with that.
    - JKCalhoun 2y ago
      That doesn't make it any less on them.
    - gonzo41 2y ago
      They are more alike as an investor class than different because of party affiliation. At the end of the day they all like being rich more than anything else.
      - loeg 2y ago
        Which aligns them with their voters -- voters don't like expensive goods and stock market crashes. The stock-owning coalition of Americans alone is bigger than either party, and everyone pays for goods.
      - gymbeaux 2y ago
        No matter how many upvotes this comment gets it will never be enough.
    - __MatrixMan__ 2y ago
      I feel like most rooms containing republicans could be talked into grabbing power that's just sitting there waiting to be grabbed at a rate of 50% or better. I'm not sure what's wrong with this one.
srvo 2y ago
I probably have terminal "investor brain," but whenever this stuff happens my first thought is "my favorite store is having a sale." Then I think about everyone that's getting hurt by this and kick myself for giving into my lizard brain.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- tananaev 2y ago
  I'm bouncing between this and thinking that "this time it's different". You can reverse tariffs policy, but a lost trust is very hard to repair.
  - giantg2 2y ago
    If it's reversed faster than alternatives are in place, then it won't matter too much if the trust is there because what alternative is there? The logistics and stuff take time to change. If it persists long enough, then the trust piece will be more of a factor.
    - energy123 2y ago
      The alternative is to not spend and not invest and not hire because confidence is down and policy uncertainty is high, leading to a recession.
      - giantg2 2y ago
        Mone of that really has to do with the tariffs. Consumers will continue to buy what they can afford. This won't reduce that much, probably by about 5% is my guess based on multiple factors. Most healthy companies will continue to operate just fine. Market confidence is down, but it's been fragile due to it's overvalued state for a while. Aside from tariffs, policy outlook is very business friendly. This mostly a market overreaction or correction from being overvalued if we look at the past. This Chinese trade war has been going on since Trumps first term (at least). The rates on the top import/exports have been around or over 25% for a while. It's also interesting how much China is hurting itself with pork. The Chinese own Smithfield and are a huge importer of pork from the US, yet they slapped an 80% tarriff on it?
MaxPock 2y ago
Trust the plan and the process.We need to start manufacturing shoes and socks here in the US.
- Aurornis 2y ago
  Burning it all down to go back to making shoes and socks domestically is pure economic illiteracy. Literally any introductory Econ book would explain why this is nonsense. It’s depressing that this mindset is resonating with so many people who think it’s better to put massive taxes on basic necessities (tariffs are taxes) and destroy the economy.
  - j4coh 2y ago
    Fairy certain the post you’re replying to was sarcasm.
  - scarab92 2y ago
    The goal isn’t to repatriate low value manufacturing, it’s simply to create negotiating leverage to discourage other countries from applying asymmetric tariffs on the US. It doesn’t make sense for the US to allow other exporters in other countries free access to US consumers, while other countries charge US exporters for the same privilege.
    - ricardobeat 2y ago
      What countries were applying “asymmetric tariffs” to the US before? I think you misunderstood the message you’re trying to stand behind: when they talk about reciprocity they mean trade deficits (as if that made sense), not import tariffs. The majority of the world had very low import taxes on US products before this happened, and now they are only going up.
    - Peanuts99 2y ago
      Trade deficits are not tariffs, the average tariff paid by the US to the EU for goods for example is around 1%.
- 2y ago
mcoliver 2y ago
High probability the US trips tomorrow as well.
- dehrmann 2y ago
  I assume dark pools keep trading?
- GaryNumanVevo 2y ago
  Futures already softening, VIX is falling too. pre-market anyways
dachris 2y ago
Refreshing to see the negative number/percentage displayed in green though.
TheBlight 2y ago
Don't let what people who don't know that much more than you say freak you out too much.
simgt 2y ago
What's in there for Trump and his friends? There is no way they actually care about bringing back all sorts of sweatshops in the US, and that can't just be blind nationalism. How do they personally benefit from that situation?
- sinuhe69 2y ago
  Loyalty and obedience is one possibility. Because if you lobby, your business can be exempted from the tariffs.
- petesergeant 2y ago
  For Trump this is a quasi-religious quest, that he’s been obsessed with since forever. For everyone else, there’s one or two nutty finance guys who believe in this shit and then exclusively yes men.
- jmward01 2y ago
  Trump has two basic strategies: 1) Double down because the one with the most money/power will eventually win with that strategy. 2) Bully everyone he thinks has less money/power than him so he can use strategy #1. The thing about the bully strategy number two though is that you have to keep using your power and keep it on display for it to work. That means he has to keep doing bully like things, over and over, no matter how dumb they are. The thing about strategy 1 is that you can never admit you were wrong/back down because then you loose all the doubling you have put in. We are seeing the result of these two simplistic strategies at play. He will only stop because it has all come crashing down and even then he will not back down. He has never had to use a different strategy because he has been rich his whole life. He has never once been 'smart', just rich and we are all paying the price of that as everyone else has his entire life.
  - ttyprintk 2y ago
    In game theory, he’s grim trigger and it shows in multiple ways. I suppose we’ve never seen him forced to play a game in which he’s not allowed to change the rules.
ChrisArchitect 2y ago
Related: U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on Wall Street https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43605670 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43605670
SubiculumCode 2y ago
Impeachment (and conviction) would be the best market solution, and I am not joking.
- Glyptodon 2y ago
  Only if they impeach and convict Vance at the same time.
  - wetpaws 2y ago
    [dead]
  - Coffeewine 2y ago
    Why do you say that? The strong impression I have is that Vance is agreeing with Trump because he has to in order to maintain any influence (and not get Pence'd), is there any indication he actually wants these Tariffs in the same way that Trump does?
    - ModernMech 2y ago
      Part of what’s going on is that there’s an aura of incompetence and chaos that has everyone confused. Vance is part of that, and he’s on top of it very young so he can’t even claim to have the experience to handle the current crisis, nor would he ever have been elected to do so as POTUS. So to the extent markets are reacting to that aura, Vance does nothing to assuage it. Honestly the team with the experience, knowledge, and relationships to right this ship was just kicked out of the White House.
- penguin_booze 2y ago
  Sir, a king can neither be convicted nor be impeached.
  - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
    Not. My. King.
john_texas 2y ago
[dead]
moomin 2y ago
A reminder that, whilst markets are imperfect and the price is often wrong, the price represents the best guesses of some highly compensated and highly able individuals who do this for a living and, as a consequence, is much more likely to be in the right ballpark than any guess made by someone here.
- bmicraft 2y ago
  See also: GameStop
kolanos 2y ago
In other news.... Vietnam Offers to Remove Tariffs on US After Trump’s Action [0] Taiwan eyes zero tariffs with US, pledges more investment [1] [0]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-06/vietnam-offers-to-remove-all-tariffs-on-us-after-trump-action?embedded-checkout=true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-06/vietnam-o... [1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/taiwan-wont-take-reciprocal-tariffs-against-us-will-remove-trade-barriers-2025-04-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/taiwan-wont-take-reciprocal-ta...
KennyBlanken 2y ago
Kospi (SK) and Taiex (Taiwan) tripped as well. China's main index dropped 7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 9% at open. Europe opens pretty soon. That's going to be ugly. Absolutely insane. We had an economy that was highly stratified with massive wealth inequality but was otherwise growing - pretty good job numbers, inflation was coming down at a healthy rate. We were doing better than almost any other country in the world in terms of recovering from the economic damage from COVID. a geopolitical situation that was very tense in several areas, but not much in the way of actual action except in Palestine. All that, gone. A recession is guaranteed; businesses started shutting down factories and laying off people almost immediately. Tens of thousands of people likely lost their jobs Friday and I imagine it'll be even worse Monday now that the Orange Turd has made inflammatory comments insisting he's seeing great success. Now realize that all the social safety net programs that would be vital during a recession? They're gone. Which means there will soon be a lot of very desperate people. And that means crime. And a lot of foreclosures. Guess what that means? Real estate market crash. That means that boomers watch their homes tank in value. Mr. Very Stable Genius put oil production and export at the top of his list and the price of oil is plunging, too - the market likely anticipates a huge drop in global and local shipping. To top it all off, while the market tanked, he was golfing and schmoozing with people who had paid millions to his campaign to sit at his table and get a few minutes of his time. Practically playing his violin while the country's economy burns. He's spent the last 4-5 decades obsessing about this. It's his white whale. He will not blink. He won't surrender. If there's anything he hates more, it's looking weak. The only thing that will stop this is someone pulling him out under the 25th amendment; I think that is the sole reason he's stacked his cabinet with the imbeciles that he has - they're loyal imbeciles. Putin is laughing his ass off right now. He's won. He's gotten his revenge for the economic damage done to Russia after much of the world slammed the door on them and I'd guess Ukraine falls within months at most. Pooh Bear is laughing too and will probably try to invade Ukraine. Israel is going to finish wiping out the Palestinians. And who do we have in charge of our military? An alcoholic, wife-beating, ultra-right christian white nationalist Army captain who is more concerned about people being clean-shaven than anything else. Did I mention that US antipiracy efforts are likely being strongly cut which means world shipping is going to get a lot more dangerous, expensive, and unreliable?
- 2y ago
whatever1 2y ago
How did the Tech & Finance Leaders fall for this during the election? Amazing lack of foresight.
- Infinity315 2y ago
  For whatever reason, people did not believe Trump would be this crazy. In fact, people in the stock market still do not believe he is this crazy. If they did, the stock market would drop much lower. From what I've heard from people in finance, the bond market is indicating some economic growth this year. If this goes on, expect a financial crisis which rivals that of the Great Depression. It's not a lack of foresight, it's just that they do not believe him or believe that someone will stop him. People have just misread Donald Trump and his intentions.
  - disgruntledphd2 2y ago
    To be fair, he said he would do all this crazy stuff the first time but didn't. So there's some evidence for the position that he wouldn't do crazy stuff. Also, it's hard for people to understand that someone in power might just not understand why their decisions are a terrible, terrible idea (see politicians and backdooring encryption for a tech example of this).
    - beAbU 2y ago
      He didn't do those things, or he couldn't? Not too familiar with American politics, but AIUI his majority was much weaker last time round, possibly resulting in some of his crazy being kept under control?
      - andelink 2y ago
        Yes, he couldn't. Anyone paying attention knows he tried.
        disgruntledphd2 2y ago
goldchainposse 2y ago
Orange Monday?
peteforde 2y ago
The thing that keeps my mind boggled is the sheer number of right wing commentators who appear to genuinely believe that it's even remotely possible for America to build (and grow, and mine) everything they need inside of their wall. It's a literally ignorant opinion that requires zero perspective on what the supply and manufacturing chain for the stuff they love to buy actually looks like. All of that doesn't even touch at the jobs Americans clearly do not want part.
- ohgr 2y ago
  I figure they've been playing Minecraft too much.
- Cthulhu_ 2y ago
  While I'm of the opinion that countries should become more self-sufficient for as many things as possible (because pollution of intercontinental shipping and political tensions / leverage... although that goes both ways), I know it's simply not possible since not everything is available everywhere, resource and knowledge / expertise wise. But if more independence was the goal, they should've made it a long-term goal, not a trap door. China does this a lot better with their 5 year plans in my opinion. I'm not a fan of China either (human rights etc), but they are on track to take over as the world's leading economic force. In fact I think they already are, but the west is sleepwalking. China has got a(n economic) hand in a lot of countries around the world, and I think the raw figures like GPD are only telling part of the story.
  - bmicraft 2y ago
    Environmental consequences for shipping are very low compared to technologies like "growing things where they do not natively grow", as in heated greenhouses or drying out the desert to grow water-intensive crops.
    - zombot 2y ago
      How do you dry out a desert?
Yeul 2y ago
Maybe this is jealousy from Americans? If we can't have a pension nobody can crash the markets! Everyone is working until they die! No more 36 hour work week!
c0wb0yc0d3r 2y ago
So a circuit breaker is intended to prevent a giant sell off? Did this happen during the giant pandemic sell off? I don’t remember hearing about it. Can this sort of thing happen multiple times a day?
- bitshiftfaced 2y ago
  Circuit breakers triggered during March of 2020. I believe the idea is that when the market moves that fast, a pause allows investors time to catch up and process the news.
- yolovoe 2y ago
  Yes and Yes.
exabrial 2y ago
Well it's nearly 1pm in US Markets :) Reading through the threads here should remind everyone that investing advice on the internet attached to politically charged comments is probably worth stepping over.
consumer451 2y ago
Something even crazier happened today, all based off of a single tweet. > At 10:10 AM ET, rumors emerged that the White House was considering a "90-day tariff pause." > At 10:15 AM ET, CNBC reported that Trump is considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for ALL countries except for China. > By 10:18 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added over +$3 TRILLION in market cap from its low. > At 10:25 AM ET, reports emerged that the White House was "unaware" of Trump considering a 90-day pause. > At 10:26 AM ET, CNBC reports that the 90-day tariff pause headlines were incorrect. > At 10:34 AM ET, the White House officially called the tariff pause headlines "fake news." > By 10:40 AM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.5 TRILLION of market cap from its high, 22 minutes prior. https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1jtohbt/a_short_summary_of_the_craziness_that_happened_in/ https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1jtohbt/a_s...

249 points by perihelions 2y ago

returnInfinity 2y ago

They are determined to bring back some of the supply chain back to USA I don't know much, but this is the messaging

piva00 2y ago
It's the messaging which you need to apply a reality check: how is it going to happen? Let's say I'm an industrialist, I have an HQ in the USA while my products are made in factories around Asia (China, Vietnam, Taiwan), I invested some US$ dozens of millions to setup production where labour costs are lower, my whole pricing depends on comparative advantages: my USA HQ does R&D by well-paid workers, the designs are then dispatched to be produced at lower cost factories. Now my products will be taxed some 30-50% more, I will have a big drop in sales so the forecast for the foreseeable future is looking like a loss for many quarters, I'd need to invest some US$ dozens of millions to setup factories in the USA, hire people to do the work that Vietnamese workers do but paying US salaries, or invest a ton more in automation and robots to run these factories as cheap as I currently can in Asia. But my financial outlook is pretty bad, I won't be able to sell my products, there's a major risk there so I can't get very low interest loans since no bank can know if I'll be able to pay it. Also, should I invest this in case it will take some 5-10 years to recoup the investment? How will tariffs look like in that time frame? If I invest and competitors don't and tariffs get struck down/removed I will have just burnt money, evaporated it, while my competitors get an advantage by saving it. Repeat this across thousands of companies to get the scale of the dilemma. I will need to put more collateral to get cheaper rates, while it's looking like I will be potentially losing money until I manage to setup these factories. I also need suppliers, and they need to setup shop in the USA as well because if not my inputs will all be more expensive anyway from the tariff tax, so I'm being squeezed in that direction as well. Multiply this by thousands and thousands of companies, all depending on a global supply chain, how the actual fuck will this work out in reality to onshore production when these companies all got squeezed all at the same time? There is no basis in reality for the messaging, it's devoid of any actual plan, any regards for the potential impact not to the "economy™" but to all the people employed by all the affected companies who will see a massive drop in sales, the workers are the consumers and when they get laid off because the companies can't keep paying salaries it will further depress outlooks on sales, turning into even riskier deals for financiers to take to support the necessary investments to onshore production of entire supply chains. To top it all off there will be massive inflation since all prices went up overnight by being taxed through tariffs, less consumer spending, fewer products being purchased, companies earning less, firing people, less consumer spending, fewer purchases, so on and so forth. It's a death spiral completely triggered by maniacs, no confidence crisis, no major shock from a natural disaster (i.e.: a pandemic), just a bunch of lunatics trying to impose a new world order through decree. And stupid people eat this messaging up, they want to believe it will be all fine and dandy even if it's one of the stupidest acts ever taken by a major government... It's all just so fucking stupid, I still can't believe how it is all just plainly so stupid.
- returnInfinity 2y ago
  That's a good analysis, better than what I could come up at least. Trump like tariffs, you can see his old videos about that. There is one offramp, which is that all tariffs come down and trump accepts that as a win. Also Bessent's friend Druckenmiller likes a consumption tax, and they think tariffs are a good consumption tax.
  - piva00 2y ago
    Thank you but I really don't think it should be considered "good analysis". It's an extremely basic analysis made by a layman (me) with just a cursory knowledge of macroeconomics, and average reasoning skills. The case that I could come up with it in 5 minutes while writing a comment on a forum just showcases how braindead this policy is, more than braindead, how one needs to be ideologically compromised to even float this idea as something that could work in reality. Whatever "model" the dumbfucks in the USA administration came up with to justify to themselves any support for this will meet with reality very, very fast, and the major problem here is that they are stubbornly ideological, Trump won't change his fucking demented mind when reality hits, he will double down like he usually does, and all of us will feel the pain, a large majority of the world's population will feel the impacts of this, layoffs are coming if this policy continues even for just a few months, businesses closing (big and small), lots and lots of suffering will be inflicted because Americans decided to elect a stupid man, surrounded by stupid sycophants. Just compare the current administration's background with any other serious nation on Earth, it's bonkers that the Americans are accepting being led by absolutely incompetent people: Education being led by an entertainment business person, Defence being led by a TV host, Health being led by an anti-science person whose claim to fame is being a relative of assassinated politicians, the list goes on and on. It's so absurd that I lost any respect I had left for the USA as a society, it's deathly sick and already rotting... Maybe this is the time it will be put in the coffin, just fucking sucks to feel that my loved ones will all feel the pain of this rotting. Edit: Just as an example of the idiocy, this is a comment from Bessent, probably the person in this administration who is the closest to being more technical: > Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted there didn’t need to be a recession and dismissed the long-term impact of stock market losses, using words like “choppiness” and “adjustment process” to explain the panic. And speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Bessent rejected the idea that people who want to retire soon had taken a serious blow. “Americans who have put away for years in their savings accounts, I think they don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what’s happening,” Bessent said. He added: “The reason the stock market is considered a good investment is because it’s a long-term investment. If you look day-to-day, week-to-week, it’s very risky. Over the long term, it’s a good investment.” The absolute denial of reality, coming from what most would consider the "competent grown up" in the whole administration. Absolute shambles...
lawn 2y ago
"The Jews are responsible for everything bad in the world". I don't know much, but this is the messaging (that I'm going to repeat ad nauseam so that more people will believe it). Don't be a part of the problem.

ninetyninenine 2y ago

China: "See?? we're not the enemy, the US is the enemy."

gpi 2y ago

Non paywalled link: https://archive.ph/Xo8zg https://archive.ph/Xo8zg

ranger_danger 2y ago
Endless captcha loops for me.
- marcosdumay 2y ago
  There isn't a lot more there anyway. The breaker triggers at 8% changes on either direction, and was triggered at ~4:30 am (Tokyo). The exchange is open now anyway, so you can look how it's going.
  - bigmattystyles 2y ago
    Either way - that I didn't know. Do they all do this?
    - nighthawk454 2y ago
      Circuit breakers are now more common. The US has them at whole-market level and individual stock level. Somewhat like an API rate limit, there are tiered penalties - the bigger the intraday drop the longer the time-out period. In the worst case the market will be shut down for the day to cool off. This is one reason you occasionally hear about the exchange ‘stopping trading’ of a security. More details here: https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/stock-market-circuit-breakers https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-ba...
    - timr 2y ago
      More important is why they do it: it's a chance for the market to pause and rationally assess automated trades. The reason we're seeing it more often is because it's a reaction to stuff like "flash crashes", which weren't a thing (as much of a thing, anyway) before bots took over the market. Of course, journalism remains trapped in a death cycle of click-chasing stupidity. This means that the triggering of the mechanism itself has now become a source of hype to propagate the panic ("OMGOMGOMG the market fell so fast that it tripped the circuit breakers!! Panic! Flee! Run away!"), so it's less clear that the mechanism is a net good.

fzeroracer 2y ago

[flagged]

tayo42 2y ago
congress is complicit too. this could all be over anytime they want it to be
- aoanevdus 2y ago
  Would they need a veto-proof majority for that to work? You’d need like half the republicans to go along with that.
  - JKCalhoun 2y ago
    That doesn't make it any less on them.
  - gonzo41 2y ago
    They are more alike as an investor class than different because of party affiliation. At the end of the day they all like being rich more than anything else.
    - loeg 2y ago
      Which aligns them with their voters -- voters don't like expensive goods and stock market crashes. The stock-owning coalition of Americans alone is bigger than either party, and everyone pays for goods.
    - gymbeaux 2y ago
      No matter how many upvotes this comment gets it will never be enough.
  - __MatrixMan__ 2y ago
    I feel like most rooms containing republicans could be talked into grabbing power that's just sitting there waiting to be grabbed at a rate of 50% or better. I'm not sure what's wrong with this one.

srvo 2y ago

I probably have terminal "investor brain," but whenever this stuff happens my first thought is "my favorite store is having a sale." Then I think about everyone that's getting hurt by this and kick myself for giving into my lizard brain.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
tananaev 2y ago
I'm bouncing between this and thinking that "this time it's different". You can reverse tariffs policy, but a lost trust is very hard to repair.
- giantg2 2y ago
  If it's reversed faster than alternatives are in place, then it won't matter too much if the trust is there because what alternative is there? The logistics and stuff take time to change. If it persists long enough, then the trust piece will be more of a factor.
  - energy123 2y ago
    The alternative is to not spend and not invest and not hire because confidence is down and policy uncertainty is high, leading to a recession.
    - giantg2 2y ago
      Mone of that really has to do with the tariffs. Consumers will continue to buy what they can afford. This won't reduce that much, probably by about 5% is my guess based on multiple factors. Most healthy companies will continue to operate just fine. Market confidence is down, but it's been fragile due to it's overvalued state for a while. Aside from tariffs, policy outlook is very business friendly. This mostly a market overreaction or correction from being overvalued if we look at the past. This Chinese trade war has been going on since Trumps first term (at least). The rates on the top import/exports have been around or over 25% for a while. It's also interesting how much China is hurting itself with pork. The Chinese own Smithfield and are a huge importer of pork from the US, yet they slapped an 80% tarriff on it?

MaxPock 2y ago

Trust the plan and the process.We need to start manufacturing shoes and socks here in the US.

Aurornis 2y ago
Burning it all down to go back to making shoes and socks domestically is pure economic illiteracy. Literally any introductory Econ book would explain why this is nonsense. It’s depressing that this mindset is resonating with so many people who think it’s better to put massive taxes on basic necessities (tariffs are taxes) and destroy the economy.
- j4coh 2y ago
  Fairy certain the post you’re replying to was sarcasm.
- scarab92 2y ago
  The goal isn’t to repatriate low value manufacturing, it’s simply to create negotiating leverage to discourage other countries from applying asymmetric tariffs on the US. It doesn’t make sense for the US to allow other exporters in other countries free access to US consumers, while other countries charge US exporters for the same privilege.
  - ricardobeat 2y ago
    What countries were applying “asymmetric tariffs” to the US before? I think you misunderstood the message you’re trying to stand behind: when they talk about reciprocity they mean trade deficits (as if that made sense), not import tariffs. The majority of the world had very low import taxes on US products before this happened, and now they are only going up.
  - Peanuts99 2y ago
    Trade deficits are not tariffs, the average tariff paid by the US to the EU for goods for example is around 1%.
2y ago

mcoliver 2y ago

High probability the US trips tomorrow as well.

dehrmann 2y ago
I assume dark pools keep trading?
GaryNumanVevo 2y ago
Futures already softening, VIX is falling too. pre-market anyways

dachris 2y ago

Refreshing to see the negative number/percentage displayed in green though.

TheBlight 2y ago

Don't let what people who don't know that much more than you say freak you out too much.

simgt 2y ago

What's in there for Trump and his friends? There is no way they actually care about bringing back all sorts of sweatshops in the US, and that can't just be blind nationalism. How do they personally benefit from that situation?

sinuhe69 2y ago
Loyalty and obedience is one possibility. Because if you lobby, your business can be exempted from the tariffs.
petesergeant 2y ago
For Trump this is a quasi-religious quest, that he’s been obsessed with since forever. For everyone else, there’s one or two nutty finance guys who believe in this shit and then exclusively yes men.
jmward01 2y ago
Trump has two basic strategies: 1) Double down because the one with the most money/power will eventually win with that strategy. 2) Bully everyone he thinks has less money/power than him so he can use strategy #1. The thing about the bully strategy number two though is that you have to keep using your power and keep it on display for it to work. That means he has to keep doing bully like things, over and over, no matter how dumb they are. The thing about strategy 1 is that you can never admit you were wrong/back down because then you loose all the doubling you have put in. We are seeing the result of these two simplistic strategies at play. He will only stop because it has all come crashing down and even then he will not back down. He has never had to use a different strategy because he has been rich his whole life. He has never once been 'smart', just rich and we are all paying the price of that as everyone else has his entire life.
- ttyprintk 2y ago
  In game theory, he’s grim trigger and it shows in multiple ways. I suppose we’ve never seen him forced to play a game in which he’s not allowed to change the rules.

ChrisArchitect 2y ago

Related: U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on Wall Street https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43605670 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43605670

SubiculumCode 2y ago

Impeachment (and conviction) would be the best market solution, and I am not joking.

Glyptodon 2y ago
Only if they impeach and convict Vance at the same time.
- wetpaws 2y ago
  [dead]
- Coffeewine 2y ago
  Why do you say that? The strong impression I have is that Vance is agreeing with Trump because he has to in order to maintain any influence (and not get Pence'd), is there any indication he actually wants these Tariffs in the same way that Trump does?
  - ModernMech 2y ago
    Part of what’s going on is that there’s an aura of incompetence and chaos that has everyone confused. Vance is part of that, and he’s on top of it very young so he can’t even claim to have the experience to handle the current crisis, nor would he ever have been elected to do so as POTUS. So to the extent markets are reacting to that aura, Vance does nothing to assuage it. Honestly the team with the experience, knowledge, and relationships to right this ship was just kicked out of the White House.
penguin_booze 2y ago
Sir, a king can neither be convicted nor be impeached.
- AnimalMuppet 2y ago
  Not. My. King.

john_texas 2y ago

[dead]

moomin 2y ago

A reminder that, whilst markets are imperfect and the price is often wrong, the price represents the best guesses of some highly compensated and highly able individuals who do this for a living and, as a consequence, is much more likely to be in the right ballpark than any guess made by someone here.

bmicraft 2y ago
See also: GameStop

kolanos 2y ago

In other news.... Vietnam Offers to Remove Tariffs on US After Trump’s Action [0] Taiwan eyes zero tariffs with US, pledges more investment [1] [0]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-06/vietnam-offers-to-remove-all-tariffs-on-us-after-trump-action?embedded-checkout=true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-06/vietnam-o... [1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/taiwan-wont-take-reciprocal-tariffs-against-us-will-remove-trade-barriers-2025-04-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/taiwan-wont-take-reciprocal-ta...

KennyBlanken 2y ago

Kospi (SK) and Taiex (Taiwan) tripped as well. China's main index dropped 7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 9% at open. Europe opens pretty soon. That's going to be ugly. Absolutely insane. We had an economy that was highly stratified with massive wealth inequality but was otherwise growing - pretty good job numbers, inflation was coming down at a healthy rate. We were doing better than almost any other country in the world in terms of recovering from the economic damage from COVID. a geopolitical situation that was very tense in several areas, but not much in the way of actual action except in Palestine. All that, gone. A recession is guaranteed; businesses started shutting down factories and laying off people almost immediately. Tens of thousands of people likely lost their jobs Friday and I imagine it'll be even worse Monday now that the Orange Turd has made inflammatory comments insisting he's seeing great success. Now realize that all the social safety net programs that would be vital during a recession? They're gone. Which means there will soon be a lot of very desperate people. And that means crime. And a lot of foreclosures. Guess what that means? Real estate market crash. That means that boomers watch their homes tank in value. Mr. Very Stable Genius put oil production and export at the top of his list and the price of oil is plunging, too - the market likely anticipates a huge drop in global and local shipping. To top it all off, while the market tanked, he was golfing and schmoozing with people who had paid millions to his campaign to sit at his table and get a few minutes of his time. Practically playing his violin while the country's economy burns. He's spent the last 4-5 decades obsessing about this. It's his white whale. He will not blink. He won't surrender. If there's anything he hates more, it's looking weak. The only thing that will stop this is someone pulling him out under the 25th amendment; I think that is the sole reason he's stacked his cabinet with the imbeciles that he has - they're loyal imbeciles. Putin is laughing his ass off right now. He's won. He's gotten his revenge for the economic damage done to Russia after much of the world slammed the door on them and I'd guess Ukraine falls within months at most. Pooh Bear is laughing too and will probably try to invade Ukraine. Israel is going to finish wiping out the Palestinians. And who do we have in charge of our military? An alcoholic, wife-beating, ultra-right christian white nationalist Army captain who is more concerned about people being clean-shaven than anything else. Did I mention that US antipiracy efforts are likely being strongly cut which means world shipping is going to get a lot more dangerous, expensive, and unreliable?

2y ago

whatever1 2y ago

How did the Tech & Finance Leaders fall for this during the election? Amazing lack of foresight.

Infinity315 2y ago
For whatever reason, people did not believe Trump would be this crazy. In fact, people in the stock market still do not believe he is this crazy. If they did, the stock market would drop much lower. From what I've heard from people in finance, the bond market is indicating some economic growth this year. If this goes on, expect a financial crisis which rivals that of the Great Depression. It's not a lack of foresight, it's just that they do not believe him or believe that someone will stop him. People have just misread Donald Trump and his intentions.
- disgruntledphd2 2y ago
  To be fair, he said he would do all this crazy stuff the first time but didn't. So there's some evidence for the position that he wouldn't do crazy stuff. Also, it's hard for people to understand that someone in power might just not understand why their decisions are a terrible, terrible idea (see politicians and backdooring encryption for a tech example of this).
  - beAbU 2y ago
    He didn't do those things, or he couldn't? Not too familiar with American politics, but AIUI his majority was much weaker last time round, possibly resulting in some of his crazy being kept under control?
    - andelink 2y ago
      Yes, he couldn't. Anyone paying attention knows he tried.
      - disgruntledphd2 2y ago

goldchainposse 2y ago

Orange Monday?

peteforde 2y ago

The thing that keeps my mind boggled is the sheer number of right wing commentators who appear to genuinely believe that it's even remotely possible for America to build (and grow, and mine) everything they need inside of their wall. It's a literally ignorant opinion that requires zero perspective on what the supply and manufacturing chain for the stuff they love to buy actually looks like. All of that doesn't even touch at the jobs Americans clearly do not want part.

ohgr 2y ago
I figure they've been playing Minecraft too much.
Cthulhu_ 2y ago
While I'm of the opinion that countries should become more self-sufficient for as many things as possible (because pollution of intercontinental shipping and political tensions / leverage... although that goes both ways), I know it's simply not possible since not everything is available everywhere, resource and knowledge / expertise wise. But if more independence was the goal, they should've made it a long-term goal, not a trap door. China does this a lot better with their 5 year plans in my opinion. I'm not a fan of China either (human rights etc), but they are on track to take over as the world's leading economic force. In fact I think they already are, but the west is sleepwalking. China has got a(n economic) hand in a lot of countries around the world, and I think the raw figures like GPD are only telling part of the story.
- bmicraft 2y ago
  Environmental consequences for shipping are very low compared to technologies like "growing things where they do not natively grow", as in heated greenhouses or drying out the desert to grow water-intensive crops.
  - zombot 2y ago
    How do you dry out a desert?

Yeul 2y ago

Maybe this is jealousy from Americans? If we can't have a pension nobody can crash the markets! Everyone is working until they die! No more 36 hour work week!

c0wb0yc0d3r 2y ago

So a circuit breaker is intended to prevent a giant sell off? Did this happen during the giant pandemic sell off? I don’t remember hearing about it. Can this sort of thing happen multiple times a day?

bitshiftfaced 2y ago
Circuit breakers triggered during March of 2020. I believe the idea is that when the market moves that fast, a pause allows investors time to catch up and process the news.
yolovoe 2y ago
Yes and Yes.

exabrial 2y ago

Well it's nearly 1pm in US Markets :) Reading through the threads here should remind everyone that investing advice on the internet attached to politically charged comments is probably worth stepping over.

consumer451 2y ago

Something even crazier happened today, all based off of a single tweet. > At 10:10 AM ET, rumors emerged that the White House was considering a "90-day tariff pause." > At 10:15 AM ET, CNBC reported that Trump is considering a 90-day pause on tariffs for ALL countries except for China. > By 10:18 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added over +$3 TRILLION in market cap from its low. > At 10:25 AM ET, reports emerged that the White House was "unaware" of Trump considering a 90-day pause. > At 10:26 AM ET, CNBC reports that the 90-day tariff pause headlines were incorrect. > At 10:34 AM ET, the White House officially called the tariff pause headlines "fake news." > By 10:40 AM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.5 TRILLION of market cap from its high, 22 minutes prior. https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1jtohbt/a_short_summary_of_the_craziness_that_happened_in/ https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1jtohbt/a_s...