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OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B
- alanlammiman 2y agoI wonder if these investors have a liquidation preference as they would in normal VC rounds. And if it's a 1x preference (as is normal) or if a higher multiple is built in.
- gmaster1440 2y agoGift Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/02/technology/openai-valuation-150-billion.html?unlocked_article_code=1.PE4.zFlk.U9zKlbwKU6dO&smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/02/technology/openai-valuati...
- lupire 2y agoDoes OpenAI have a moat?
- returnInfinity 2y agoIt still has the first mover advantage, based on the revenue and usage graphs. If somebody puts a cheaper and better version, then no moat.
- hshshshsvsv 2y agoIt's called llama. And it's free.
- m3kw9 2y agoLlama sucks man vs the best models sorry you cannot really be serious
- hshshshsvsv 2y agoI have only tried it with gpt4. Seems to be doing a pretty good job? What models should I try?
- neom 2y agoEh, in the b2c play, sure- if they nail the enterprise maybe not.
- jjice 2y agoAs a layman outsider, it doesn't seem like it. Anthropic is doing great work (I personally prefer Claude) and now there are so many quality LLMs coming out that I don't know if OpenAI is particularly special anymore. They had a lead at first, but it feels like many others are catching up. I could be _very_ wrong though.
- cubefox 2y agoThey recently released a new model, called "o1-preview", that is significantly ahead of the competition in terms of mathematical reasoning.
- Q6T46nT668w6i3m 2y agoOn benchmarks where it’s impossible to verify whether there’s contamination?
- diffeomorphism 2y agoIs it? There was some discussion on HN a while ago that it is better than gpt4o but nothing about the competition and that seems quite doubtful compared to e.g. alphaproof. Also, if "significantly ahead" just means "a few months ahead" that does not justify the valuation.
- varelse 2y ago[dead]
- petesergeant 2y ago> that is significantly ahead Perhaps, but at most generous, it’s three months ahead of competitors I imagine
- layoric 2y agoAgreed. Sonnet 3.5 is still by far the most useful model I've found. o1-mini is priced similar and no where near as useful even if programming which it is suppose to excel. I recently tried o1-mini using `aider` and it would randomly start responding in russian mid way through despite all input being in english. If anything, I think Anthropic still has a decent lead when it comes to price to performance. Their update to Haiku and Opus will be very interesting.
- cubefox 2y agoIt's the company that's most likely to be the first to develop superintelligence.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 2y agoBased on… CEO proclamations?
- cubefox 2y agoBased on a comparison with DeepMind and Anthropic.
- awfulneutral 2y agoIf superintelligence happens, then money won't matter anymore anyway.
- snapcaster 2y agoI don't disagree, but what makes you say this?
- hshshshsvsv 2y agoDefine super intelligence first maybe?
- cubefox 2y agoMore intelligent than any human.
- hshshshsvsv 2y agoWhat is intelligence and how does one measure that?
- cubefox 2y agoWhat is measurement? What is a definition?
- infecto 2y agoHard to say in my opinion. I can say that I still use OpenAI heavily compared to the competition. It really depends though. I do believe they are still leaders in offering compelling apis and solutions.
- moralestapia 2y agoIt does. "ChatGPT", GPT, "OpenAI", etc... are strong brands associated with it. Edit: You can downvote me all you want, I have plenty of karma to spare. This is OpenAI's strongest moat, whether people like it or not.
- diffeomorphism 2y agoGPT is a generic tool name. Those moats are pretty weak. People use Apple Idioticnaming or MS Copilot or Google whatever, which transparently use some interchangeable model in the background. Compared to chatgpt these might not be as smart, but have much easier access to OS level context. In other words: Good luck defending this moat against OS manufacturers with dominant market shares.
- moralestapia 2y ago>Those moats are pretty weak. Name any other AI company with better brand awareness and that argument could make a little bit of sense. Armchair analysts have been saying that since ChatGPT came out. "Anyone could steal the market, anytime" and there's a trillion USD at play, yet no one has, why? Because that's a delusion.
- changing1999 2y agoWhat you are overlooking is the fact that AI today and especially AI in the future is going to be about integrations. Assisted document writing, image generation for creative work, etc etc. Very few people will look at the tiny gray text saying "Powered by ChatGPT" or "Powered by Claude"; name recognition is not as relevant as eg iPhone. Anecdotally, I used to pay for ChatGPT. Now I run a nice local UI with Llama 3. They lost revenue from me.
- diffeomorphism 2y ago> Name any other ~~AI~~ company with better brand awareness and that argument could make a little bit of sense. I just gave you three of them. Right now a large share of chatgpt customers come from the integration provided by those three. > "Anyone could steal the market, anytime" and there's a trillion USD at play, yet no one has, why? Because that's a delusion. Bullshit. It is not about "stealing" but about carving a significant niche. And that has happened: Apple In happens in large parts on device using not-chatgpt, google's circle to search, summaries etc use not-chatgpt, copilot uses not-chatgpt. The danger to a moat is erosion not invasion.
- m3kw9 2y agoIn fact they do, it’s called servers, GPUs, scale. You need them to train new models and to serve them. They also have speed and in AI speed is a non traditional moat. They got crazy connections too because of Sam. All of that together becomes a moat that someone just can’t do a “Facebook clone” on OpenAI
- fach 2y agoSomeone certainly can "Facebook clone" OpenAI. Google, Meta and Apple all are more well capitalized than OpenAI, operate at a larger scale and are actively training and publishing their own models.
- m3kw9 2y agoNot anyone, it would be tough. You could also say the same that any one of these companies can do a Facebook clone, but it won’t be easy
- petesergeant 2y agoI’m building several commercial projects with LLMs at the moment. 4o mini has been sufficient, and is also super cheap. I don’t need better reasoning at this point, I just need commodification, and so I’ll be using it for each product right up to the point that it gets cheaper to move up the hosting chain a little with Llama, at which point I won’t be giving any money to them. They’ve built a great product, the price is good, but it’s entirely unclear to me that they’re continue to offer special sauce here compared to the competition.
- danpalmer 2y agoOpenAI is dependent on Microsoft for GPUs, who are in turn dependent on Nvidia for GPUs. It’s nearly the least moat-y version of this out there.
- m3kw9 2y agoUsed to be when they had no money
- brotchie 2y agoNo. The race is, can OpenAI innovate on product fast enough to get folks to switch their muscle memory workflows to something new? It doesn't matter how good the model is, if folks aren't habituated to using it. At the moment, my muscle memory to go to Claude, since it seems to do better at answering engineering questions. The competition really is between FAANG and OpenAI, can OpenAI accumulate users faster than Apple, Google, Meta, etc layer in AI-based features onto their existing distribution surfaces.
- layer8 2y agoAside from vendor lock-in by making their integrations (APIs) as idiosyncratic and multifaceted as possible, I don’t think so.
- cs702 2y agoGiven the high risk, investors likely want a shot of earning at least a 10x return. $157 billion x 10 = $1.57 trillion, greater than META's current market capitalization. Greater returns would require even more aggressive assumptions. For example, a 30x return would require OpenAI to become the world's most valuable company by a large margin. All I can say to the investors, with the best of hopes, is: Good luck! You'll need it!
- alex_young 2y agoMaybe they view it as at least a sure thing for a 2x return... Another issue here is that at this value level they are now required to become a public company and a direct competitor to their largest partners. It will be interesting to see how the competitive landscape changes.
- cs702 2y agoMy understanding is that the company is burning $0.5+ to $1+ billion each month. I'd say that's very high risk.
- lumost 2y agoThat is also much lower than Uber at its peak.
- smt88 2y agoUber was a literally life-changing product with an obvious value for anyone. LLMs have neither benefit.
- choilive 2y agoEvery cafe, airport, school I've been to has people using ChatGPT or its competitors. Its obviously valuable for almost anyone. Just like how people cant imagine life before smartphones, people wont be able to imagine life before LLMs became ubiquitous. Its everywhere.
- janandonly 2y agoChatGPT is valued $157BN? What discount rate do you use on a cash burning non-profit?
- fullstackchris 2y agoAsk the same to Tesla which has a 700B+ valuation, earlier over 1T. Like it or not, company valuations are about stories, not facts.
- paxys 2y agoTesla made $12.4B in profit last year. You can argue that the company is overvalued, sure, but there's no case to be made that it isn't a very viable and successful business. OpenAI meanwhile is banking on the fact that it will invent AGI soon and the AGI will figure out how to stop losing money on every query.
- smlacy 2y agonegative times a negative is a positive
- shermantanktop 2y agoIt’s just math, duh.
- artninja1988 2y agoI've been very disappointed in recent model releases, to be honest. It seems that o1 is their venture into reasoning, llms lack so much, but it's unclear if their approach does actually works towards robust reasoning. I do cheer for them and hope they can come up with something. Ai research is advancing too slowly!
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y agoThe closer you get to 100% accurate, the harder it is to improve.
- infamouscow 2y ago[flagged]
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- throwup238 2y ago> The new fund-raising round, led by the investment firm Thrive Capital, values OpenAI at $157 billion, according to two people with knowledge of the deal. Microsoft, the chipmaker Nvidia, the tech conglomerate SoftBank, the United Arab Emirates investment firm MGX and others are also putting money into OpenAI. Yeah, that bodes well. Led by Jared Kushner's brother's VC firm with the UAE's sovereign wealth fund and Softbank following. If not for Microsoft and NVIDIA, this would be the ultimate dumb money round.
- jddj 2y agoMicrosoft and (indirectly) Nvidia are the real destinations for a bunch of that money anyway, so I think your point stands.
- ralph84 2y agoMicrosoft and NVIDIA are guaranteed an ROI since it comes right back as revenue for them.
- blackhawkC17 2y ago[flagged]
- asukumar 2y agoThrive is one of the 10 most respected firms in venture capital. They work super hard and have a track record to prove it. Nobody who knows what they’re talking about would consider them dumb money. https://www.newcomer.co/p/sequoia-founders-fund-usv-elad-gil https://www.newcomer.co/p/sequoia-founders-fund-usv-elad-gil
- KoolKat23 2y agoSoftbank is the one I'd worry about
- BonoboIO 2y agoSoftBank you say … boy I wouldn’t touch anything that SoftBank is investing in.
- heyitsguay 2y agoIf I were an investor, I'd be pretty concerned with such a high valuation after the o1 release. It's great, no question, but in my usage so far it's a modest step up from 4o, much smaller than the 3->4 jump. Real world exponential growth is exponential until it's logistic, and this sort of feels like entering that phase of the LLM paradigm. Talking to friends who are very successful, knowledgeable AI researchers in industry and academia, their big takeaway from o1 is that the scaling hypothesis appears to be nearing its end, and that this is probably the motivation for trading additional training-time compute for additional inference-time compute. So where does that leave an investor's calculus? Is there evidence OpenAI can pull another rabbit or two out of its hat and also translate that into a profitable business? Seems like a shaky bet right now.
- m3kw9 2y agoThen you alone will not invest
- ilaksh 2y agoThey have evidence that inference time and inference time during training can continue to increase the reasoning abilities. They do not actually need any further technology development to continue to add profitable products. There are numerous ways they can apply their existing models to offer services with various levels of specificity and target markets. Even better, their API offerings can be leveraged by an effectively infinite variety of other types of business, so they don't even need to do the application development themselves and can still profit from those companies using their API.
- lumost 2y agoanecdotally, I'm flipping back and forth between o1 and GPT-4. o1 is mildly better at editing larger code segments. I worked with it to edit a large ~2k line python file in an unusual domain. But o1 is also incredibly verbose. It'll respond with 1-2 pages of text which often contains redundant data. GPT-4o is better in it's descriptions.
- iamleppert 2y agoThat's exactly what it is and what has been done. It's just an iterative model with a planning step. In my tests you can get nearly the same results with GPT4 by first asking for a plan, and then asking for each step of the plan within the same context window.
- Someone1234 2y agoI hope better competition appear before the enshittification begins. As far as I understand it they're actually underwater on their API and even $20/month pricing, so we'll either see prices aggressively increase and or additional revenue streams like ads or product placement in results. We've witnessed that every time a company's valuation is impossibly high: They do anything they can to improve outlook in an attempt to meet it. We're currently in the equivalent of Netflix's golden era where the service was great, and they could do no wrong. Personally I'll happily use it as long as I came, but I know it is a matter of "when" not "if" it all starts to go downhill.
- jsheard 2y ago> additional revenue streams like ads or product placement in results. It's largely flown under the radar but they appear to already be testing this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41658837 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41658837
- lynx23 2y ago"This hallucination was brought to you by the coca cola company." Given how picky the ad industry can be about where their ads are being placed, I somehow suspect this is going to be complicated. After all, every paragraph produced is potentially plain untrue.
- canada_dry 2y ago> the enshittification I've assumed that when AI becomes much more mainstream we'll see multiple levels of services. The cheapest (free or cash strapped services) will implement several (hidden/opaque) ways to reduce the cost of answering a query by limiting the depth and breadth of its analysis. Not knowing any better you likely won't realize that a much more complete, thoroughly considered answer was even available.
- shermantanktop 2y agoOr an answer that left out the fact that Pepperidge Farm remembers, Coke is life, and yo queiro Taco Bell.
- teqsun 2y agoAfter Theranos and WeWork, I'm always skeptical of any Pre-IPO "valuations".
- kredd 2y agoFor every Theranos and WeWork, there’s Uber, Coinbase, AirBnb. I know they didn’t raise as much as OpenAI, but it wasn’t insignificant amount of money burning before they became profitable with large market caps. It’s very strange times we’re living in.
- _1 2y agoHave any of those become profitable?
- kredd 2y agoYup, I think all three are posting about 500M/quarter profits on average for the past year or so. Might be wrong though, I don’t really keep up with all of them.
- plorkyeran 2y agoAirBnB has been profitable for two years. Coinbase’s financials are complicated by them holding a substantial amount of cryptocurrency, but they’ve been profitable for two quarters even with significant losses there.
- paxys 2y agoYes, all of them are profitable.
- padjo 2y agoUber made a 1.1 billion profit last year.
- romanhn 2y agoAirbnb is down 10% since going public. Coinbase is down over 50%. I think some skepticism around pre-IPO valuation is warranted.
- deisteve 2y ago$157B marketcap means they need to 20x their current revenue of roughly 400 million dollars by next year... But the revenue has flatlined and you can't raise your existing users cost by 20x... It truly is a mystery as to how anybody throwing other peoples money hopes to get it back from OpenAI
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- qeternity 2y agoI'm not justifying anything here but I think their revenues are expected to triple next year...now that doesn't mean they will of course. But why do you say they've flatlined?
- NickNaraghi 2y ago> But the revenue has flatlined and you can't raise your existing users cost by 20x... Why not? They’re already shopping a 2k/mo subscription option
- adastra22 2y agoWho would pay 2k/mo? For what? That’s someone’s rent.
- tonyedgecombe 2y ago>Who would pay 2k/mo? Spammers.
- ToValueFunfetti 2y agoThey made 300 million revenue last month, apparently up 17x from last year[1]. To get a P/E ratio of 20, assuming (falsely) that their spending holds constant, they'd need ~4x more revenue [1]https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/openai-closes-funding-157-billion-valuation-microsoft-nvidia-softbank-rcna173693 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/openai-closes...
- pcurve 2y agoI'm wondering... if the rapid development of openai will actually have deflationary effect on the economy.
- Rebuff5007 2y agoI for one can never get over the fact that Mira Murati was not laughed out of the room when she said -- with a straight face -- that GPT4 had high school level intelligence and the non-existent GPT5 will have PHD-level intelligence [1]. IMO -- this is not a serious company with serious people building an important long-lived product. This is a group of snake oil salesmen that are in the middle of the greatest grift of their careers. That, and some AI researchers that are probably enjoying limitless gpus. [1] https://www.timesnownews.com/technology-science/next-gen-chatgpt-to-have-phd-level-intelligence-says-openai-cto-mira-murati-article-111172332 https://www.timesnownews.com/technology-science/next-gen-cha...
- petesergeant 2y ago> this is not a serious company with serious people building an important long-lived product. This is a group of snake oil salesmen But that’s obviously not a fair description either, because they have the world-leading product in an intensely competitive field that does stuff nobody would have thought possible five years ago. The marketing is obviously massive hyperbole bordering the ridiculous, but the idea that they haven’t produced something deeply serious and important is also ridiculous, to me. The only (gigantic, huge, fatal—perhaps) problem they have at the moment is that their moat seems to only consist of a short head start over the competition.
- Mistletoe 2y agoBut is it world leading? https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/chatgpt-vs-google-gemini/ https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/chatgpt-vs-g... Gemini won this one in September. It won another one I read in March. I just use Gemini for free.
- Rebuff5007 2y agoThe whole industry is full of snake oil salesmen. Do you really think this [2] is not a hype bubble waiting to be turned into a tell-all docuseries? They have produced something impactful sure, but I don't think their product is a tenth as valuable or "intelligent" as they are claiming it to be. There are too many domain-specific tools that are far superior to whatever pseudo-intelligence you get from chatgpt... what proof do we have that any industry has found material value from this chatbot? [2] https://x.com/deedydas/status/1841670760705949746 https://x.com/deedydas/status/1841670760705949746
- CSMastermind 2y agoI wonder why Apple pulled out
- paxys 2y agoApple is an extremely conservative minded company. Making a huge gamble on an overhyped overvalued company for a chance at a 10x return isn't in their DNA.
- dom96 2y agoor after building their own LLM that runs locally on Apple Sillicon they've decided that this technology is crazily overhyped
- BonoboIO 2y agoApple survived with Siri for 10 years that is absolutely useless beside creating a timer … so they have time to wait and even use open source llms in the future.
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y agoIt's almost as if people are willing to pay more for an iPhone than an assistant / LLM.
- Mistletoe 2y agoI asked Siri how much 500 mL of water weighed the other day and she said 0.13 gallons. I should have remembered a mL weighs a gram but still. Siri is dumber than dirt.
- CSMastermind 2y agoBut why wait until the 11th hour to pull out? They were on the round up until today.
- paxys 2y ago
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- paxys 2y ago$6.6B raise. The company loses $5B per year. So all this money literally gives them just an extra ~year and change of runway. I know the AI hype is sky high at the moment (hence the crazy valuation), but if they don't make the numbers make sense soon then I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. Another interesting part: > Under the terms of the new investment round, OpenAI has two years to transform into a for-profit business or its funding will convert into debt, according to documents reviewed by The Times. Considering there are already lawsuits ongoing about their non-profit structure, that clause with that timeline seems a bit risky.
- nwiswell 2y ago> if they don't make the numbers make sense soon then I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. This is pretty much obvious just from the valuations. The wild bull case where they invent a revolutionary superintelligence would clearly value them in the trillions, so the fact that they're presently valued an order of magnitude less implies that it is viewed as an unlikely scenario (and reasonably so, in my opinion).
- bpodgursky 2y agoIt actually represents the scenario where they invent a revolutionary superintelligence that doesn't kill the VCs investing in the firm, and allows them enough control to take profit. In the top range ASI capacity outcomes, the sand god does not return trillions to the VCs. This actually represents only the narrow "aligned" range of AI outcomes, so it makes sense it's a small one.
- seanhunter 2y agoJudging by the ones I have met, the VCs probably believe that any kind of superintelligence would by definition be something that would like them and be like them. If it wasn’t on their side they would take it as incontrovertible proof that it wasn’t a superintelligence.
- 2y ago
- gsky 2y agoas a geniune user (not robot) i could not create an account with OpenAI even after solving their puzzles 100 times.
- threwaway4392 2y agoThey haven't even started their own versions of AdWords. Google's money printing is based on people telling Google what they want in the search bar, and google placing ads about what they want right when they ask for it. Today people type what they want in the ChatGPT search bar.
- seper8 2y agoDifference is is that I can just switch to another LLM. I cant really do the same for Google.
- nicce 2y agoI haven't used Google for year, and I find better results than ever.
- EasyMark 2y agoFor me ddg and brave search have been fine with an occasional dose of chatgpt . I don’t miss google. I used Kagi for a few months and it was great but I got tired of them aggressively logging me out because I use a VPN that often changes IPs all over the US to find the speediest server. I understand why they do it, but I could not tolerate it forcing me to log back in every couple of days across devices. I was using 2FA so it was obviously me and not someone else using my account.
- move-on-by 2y agoI use private mode on safari as my primary browser experience- so I’m never logged into anything. Kagi has a ‘Session Link’ feature where the URL itself logs you in. It’s pretty easy to get setup and then you never have to log in again unless you want to make account changes. I agree with you that it wouldn’t be worth it if I was constantly having to log in. Anyways, just something to consider, there is a solution.
- adastra22 2y agoThere are other search engines… I haven’t used google in years.
- jppope 2y agoCan't help but think about this scene from silicon valley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo The "no revenue" scene... All OpenAI needs to do is start making some revenue to offset the costs!
- tim333 2y agoIt's too late! They have revenue. Safe Superintelligence Inc is showing the way.
- paul7986 2y agoIn April they hyped up being able to talk to something like a H.E.R. Yet it seems all hype and not a reality. They say sign up and u might get access lol ... startup for speak give us ur money but we don't have the product we advertised/hyped up! Won't give them anymore of my money!
- esafak 2y agoAnd the avatar in the demo was from another company.
- turingfeel 2y agoWhat avatar?
- esafak 2y agoThis is the video they first went with: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO9Jge1z7OU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO9Jge1z7OU Later they replaced it with https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgYi3Wr7v_g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgYi3Wr7v_g
- paul7986 2y agowho knows in that regards ... all i know is they sold and advertised a product to get people to pay them for hype and dangling a product in front of them with tricky language .. subscribe and you might get it lol. They are playing the start-up horseshit marketing game as its still not a product on the market and does it really exist.......
- paxys 2y agoOpenAI raises $6.6B. Related: Microsoft and NVIDIA's revenues increase by a combined $6.6B.
- ddxv 2y agoI'm surprised there isn't more concern for OpenAI in that open source / open weight models are fast catching up to the plateau that OpenAI is at. Include edge AI models, ie tiny models that fit in apps/extensions etc and you have a LOT of nearly free competition coming for OpenAI.
- muzani 2y agoThey've dodged several of these lately. GPT-4o brought the competition to multimodal. o1 brought it back to reasoning/coding. There's products like Assistants and Memories, which isn't easily doable on open source either. It's like watching Muhammad Ali or Mike Tyson boxing - they're the most agile large company we've ever seen and they're able to do it on a heavyweight platform.
- epolanski 2y agoThere's no chance in the world they are worth even a tenth of it. Like literally some of their best talent tomorrow starts their own company and all they need is data center credits to catch up with open ai itself. What is the company's moat exactly? Being few months at best ahead of the curve (and only on specific benchmarks)?
- muzani 2y agoI've been following them for years, and every year everyone says they're not worth it. It started with "AI progress is fake." "AI will never beat human creativity." "AI can't code anything past 15k tokens." "AI will always be too expensive." "AI will never sound like a human." "AI can't even understand humor." And now we're at "AI is only like this because they're stealing copyright." "If everyone uses AI, it will cannibalize its own outputs." "Other people can build LLMs too." But year after year, they solve these problems. They weren't worth a hundredth of it in 2021. At this rate, they would be worth a tenth of it in 2026, and maybe a oneth of it in 2030. And that's what the VCs are backing on. If they're not, well, it converts to debt. Google (the search engine) hasn't really had a moat either. Plenty of competitors, some better ones, but they're still around. ChatGPT is a brand name.
- epolanski 2y agoYet you're ignoring that competitors, have done a terrific job at catching up in extremely small time frames. Hell, even Nvidia 2 weeks ago released their own LLM model which is competitive with the best commercial ones. AI is a commodity, eventually where money will be made (interacting with the software and user, from Excel to your OS like Apple Intelligence) it won't be much relevant which model you use, average Joe won't even notice.
- muzani 2y agoI don't consider models a commodity though. Coffee and steel are commodities. You need some level of quality and materials, but they can be swapped out. Models are more like engines or CPUs. Unbenchmarked things like their ability to use south Jakartan slang, writing jokes, how and when they reject input, how tightly they adhere to system input, how they'd rate a thing from 1-10. They function as a part of a complex system and can't be swapped out. I'm using Claude Sonnet 3.0 for a production app and I need a week to be able to swap it to 3.5 while maintaining the same quality. We've trained our own models and it's still incredibly hard to compete with $0.075 per million tokens just on things like cost of talent, hardware, electricity. And that speed. The question is why not something like Anthropic? I'd say OpenAI has other cards up their sleeve. The hardware thing Jony Ive is working on. Sam Altman invests into fusion power and Stripe; guess who's getting a discount? There is a moat, but it lies at a higher level. Other competitors are also playing other kinds of moats like small offline AI.
- sub7 2y agoFunny that they will call syntactically correct word vectors trained on reddit comments "AGI". There is no "self learning", just chaining outputs trained on different .txt instruction sets. There has never been a better time to have human intelligence and apply it to fields that are moving towards making critical decisions based on latent space probability maps. NLP and Human-Computer Interaction however are fields that have actually been revolutionized though this wave so I do expect at least much better voice interfaces/suggestion engines.
- KoolKat23 2y agoThink you need to read up what transformers actually do (they refine syntactically, semantically and whatever additional way you wish) and what emergent properties they have.
- arjunaaqa 2y agoSeeing the discussions, I would point out that a startup needs stability in leadership to grow that fast. Look at Google, Meta, etc. They were super stable in leadership when they took off. Can’t say the same for OpenAI. Also, being an AI researcher, them converting to profit org after accepting donations in name of humanity and non-profit is honestly shameful and will not attract most talented researchers. Similar to what happened to Microsoft once they got labelled as “evil”.
- nadist 2y ago[dead]
- moomin 2y agoPeople need to stop looking at the implied valuation of the stock purchase and take into account the rest of the financial terms. If the tiny stock trade values it at 10 and the attached huge preferred debt at 1, I know which valuation to believe.
- eichi 2y agoReally good financial engineering which had convinced the value. Cheers.
- K0IN 2y agoso they are now close to where every float in the original gpt3 model, is worth 1$.