plaidfuji

3 ms·

1.
by plaidfuji 7d ago
It is 2026. How are we still publishing articles on medical diagnostics data science and using area under the ROC curve as the primary metric of success. ROC-AUC of 0.9 under severe class imbalance (almost always the case in diagnostics) co
2.
by plaidfuji 10d ago
Occam’s Razor could also simply be that OpenAI and Anthropic are massively overvalued. If OpenAI or Anthropic go away tomorrow, people find a new model and move on. If Google goes away tomorrow, people’s lives would be severely disrupted, a
3.
by plaidfuji 10d ago
This is the most grounded and coherent take I’ve seen on the actual realizable value of LLMs.. pretty much since they came out. > the classes of firms that can accept the use of fully autonomous LLMs are few, by my count just three: 1. t
4.
by plaidfuji 11d ago
I’m wondering if they even see a coding agent as a valuable prize. It’s a competitive market in a race to the bottom economically, hard to establish consistent differentiation and virtually zero switching cost for customers. I think they’ve
5.
by plaidfuji 13d ago
> For the first time in human history, any member of the working class can just about afford to have a team of expert scientist/physician/lawyer/engineers working directly for them. Super intelligence (the ability to have
6.
by plaidfuji 16d ago
> Here’s the thing: most of our habits at work still assume that producing something means you have to understand it. This has only ever been true in a relative sense. Until recently, one was expected to understand the software-level cod
7.
by plaidfuji 17d ago
1. They are massively unprofitable. It is a statement of fact. Nowhere did I say “can’t ever”. 2. Even their pursuit of this problem was itself unprofitable - $15M in compute to solve a problem with a $1M prize. Not that that was the point,
8.
by plaidfuji 17d ago
The whole thing reeks of the desperation of an unprofitable venture-backed startup looking for its next PR win to keep the wind in the sails. But I think what’s being overlooked in the race to claim absolute credit is that both sides ultima
9.
by plaidfuji 18d ago
To me it’s morally ambiguous… if you hand parts of your thinking over to a tool like this (knowing full well the terms of service), of course the tool makers will want to claim some credit, and they do deserve it. But the bigger question to
10.
by plaidfuji 22d ago
More likely ten years from now you’ll think, “man, we were pretty naive to think we were on the cusp of AGI back when LLMs automated low-level software engineering.”
11.
by plaidfuji 22d ago
Bingo
12.
by plaidfuji 24d ago
I believe Gemini Flash is smart enough to know when to ground with web search. Their app has been saying it’s running a web search on almost all of my queries since 3.6. And given that Google … is Google, I trust them with web search ground
13.
by plaidfuji 25d ago
I think the sentiment is misplaced here (there is a legitimate concern for IP protection), but this is my absolute favorite line from Silicon Valley - small correction though: “… makes the world a better place better than we do ”
14.
by plaidfuji 26d ago
> The week before Christmas 2025, five mathematicians were holed up in a classroom at ETH Zurich. So happy this didn’t end with, “tweaking their prompt for ChatGPT Sol” or whatever. > He, Diskin, and Radhakrishnan made some progress a
15.
by plaidfuji 1mo ago
This seems like a pretty straightforward and easily winnable situation for GitHub. The demand for their services just doubled, apparently. They have no real competitor operating at the scale they’re at. They have pretty substantial network
16.
by plaidfuji 1mo ago
This is so random. I had just pulled this exact page up this morning to settle a debate with coworkers over whether the product names were real Swedish words or not. I thought they were all made up! Was very surprised to find things like “b
17.
by plaidfuji 1mo ago
In chemicals and materials, 50 rows of good data is a really solid study. That’s e.g. a 3x4x4 experimental design (assuming replicates for each condition get averaged into a single row). If you managed to prep that many samples correctly an
18.
by plaidfuji 1mo ago
> “…the focus of AI in drug discovery must shift from doing what can be done - such as modelling data that is readily available, but that is unlikely to move the needle - to doing what should be done, even if this requires, for example,
19.
by plaidfuji 2mo ago
That means they’ve learned how to say “no” more diplomatically :)
20.
by plaidfuji 2mo ago
This assumes that writing standalone apps (what is now implied by “realizing an idea” in the AI hype-o-sphere) still has defensible value
21.
by plaidfuji 2mo ago
Poison can act on more than just your stomach
22.
by plaidfuji 2mo ago
If this were true, food companies wouldn’t have a Regulatory team. Except every single one of them does, and they function similarly to how you describe, but without dissolving. They’re treated as a constraint that must be checked before ma
23.
by plaidfuji 2mo ago
I would be genuinely very impressed - but still not scared - if the Riemann hypothesis were solved. I suspect that we may require “new math” to make progress on that. If a new operator / symbol is required, is that fundamentally not
24.
by plaidfuji 2mo ago
Any computable problem will eventually fall to computers. LLMs have made math proofs more computable, in the sense that a computer can both generate potential solutions and check the validity of its solutions on its own, with a reasonable c
25.
by plaidfuji 2mo ago
I think the manufacturing analogy is apt. If you consider both the need for minimal COGS and the large R&D expense, it’s kind of like… biomanufacturing. You spend a lot on R&D to develop your bug, which at the end of the day is just
26.
by plaidfuji 2mo ago
Right. It also makes it sound like they’re not using the Haber Bosch process… but then: > Electrolyzers are located on-site. They use wind energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen gas. > Additionally, nitrogen gas is directly ha
27.
by plaidfuji 3mo ago
> I don't think most software is like solving a math problem or series of math problems. I agree with you when talking about high level software design. As you say it ultimately boils down to building something people will pay for,
28.
by plaidfuji 3mo ago
It seems like a solid set of criteria for how easily a task can be automated by AI agents is: - extent to which correctness of solution be easily specified and checked - extent to which new potential solutions can be implemented as text - e
29.
by plaidfuji 3mo ago
Does anyone really believe he’s doing all of this just to sell out and live on a beach somewhere? This dude sleeps at his own factories. He literally works like 24/7 and has no personal life. If this was all a cash grab he’s had dozens
30.
by plaidfuji 4mo ago
As much as it’s tempting to read some kind of ulterior motive into this, I think the most reasonable explanation is that AWS, as perhaps the single biggest point of failure in the backbone of US IT infrastructure, has legitimate concerns ab

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