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After all the wailing and rending of clothes, the industrial policy worked out great and we have top tier production here in the US, transferring knowledge from

After all the wailing and rending of clothes, the industrial policy worked out great and we have top tier production here in the US, transferring knowledge from TSMC to a US workforce. This is a significant win for the US, and just the beginning of the amazing industrial policy passed over the past few years. US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated, and we in the US are going to be building our own future both for chips and for energy security. This is great news, and we should celebrate.

pbhjpbhj 2y ago
So the free market was the enemy all along, what we needed was state planning?
- louwrentius 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - sgu999 2y ago
    What are you doing with these 70TB of storage? I was meant to ask the other day when you reached the front page, but someone asked me a question during the meeting I was in. (Your comment made me giggle so I went looking for more banter on a potential blog, sorry for creeping up)
    - louwrentius 2y ago
      I've answered that question here below the picture: https://louwrentius.com/71-tib-diy-nas-based-on-zfs-on-linux.html https://louwrentius.com/71-tib-diy-nas-based-on-zfs-on-linux...
- anon291 2y ago
  The free market actually works great under the assumption of governments not acting irrationally. However, since China has expressed interest in war with Taiwan (not a thing advised by the free market), someone needs to address that. In terms of economics, this is a net loss, but then again, the effects of war in Taiwan would be worse.
- sph 2y ago
  The free market is an innocent scapegoat that never existed in any government. As long as the State makes the laws, it is a form of state planning. The only different between Soviet Russia and modern Western countries is how heavy the hand of the state tries to move the needle of the market. But I agree on the sentiment: everybody seems to have decided the state should control the market even further than it did three decades ago. Free market was never given a chance.
- EasyMark 2y ago
  The free market often needs nudges in the right direction. The free market is a rule of thumb and not an actual Scientific Law. When left unchecked it ultimately eats itself
lettergram 2y ago
Notably, this was started in 2020 with a $12B investment - https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm Then in 2022, TSMC invested another $18B and received $6.6B from the CHIPS act. My bet, is TSMC was given a “you build in the US or we wont give you defense contract work” in 2018-2020 timeframe lol
- iknowstuff 2y ago
  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act#History https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act#Histor...
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - thatwasunusual 2y ago
    Of course Republicans opposed it. :-/
    - nebula8804 2y ago
      Does it matter? They played pretend opposition like they always do. Democrats can pass this stuff no problem but people elected the opposition party to advance meaningful democratic reforms like better health care, dealing with housing, increasing minimum wage. They haven't done anything. Its blatantly obvious this chips bill was a giant handout to corporations. Sure the plens get a few breadcrumbs but its pointless to point to republicans when both sides are not really enacting fundamental change for the common man.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- klyrs 2y ago
  > My bet, is TSMC was given a “you build in the US or we wont give you defense contract work” in 2018-2020 timeframe lol TSMC is in an extremely precarious geopolitical situation; China's hardball is a lot scarier than Trump's. Expanding their geographical redundancy through billions in handouts is pretty appealing to investors.
mlyle 2y ago
> US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated One thing that I think that frequently eludes people in this discussion is that US manufacturing has pretty much been constantly growing for the past century; just its share of GDP has fallen as other sectors have grown faster. And the share of the workforce has fallen even faster, as the actual manufacturing has moved towards higher value items and greater degrees of automation. I think the actual outcome of this policy is mixed. I think it was a big case of corporate welfare that will result in somewhat increased chip production in the US. I think this is a win for national security. I don't think the government applying such levers to change how the market allocates capital probably won't be a win for economic output or quality of life.
- jojobas 2y ago
  This might be true, but the rust belt is called that for a reason. I also wonder what's the share of non-disposable products in US and other Western countries manufacturing.
  - mlyle 2y ago
    > This might be true, but the rust belt is called that for a reason. > > as the actual manufacturing has moved towards higher value items and greater degrees of automation. US manufacturing has moved away from things like primary metals, which the steel belt had focused on, and towards things further up the value chain. https://www.nist.gov/sites/default/files/styles/2800_x_2800_limit/public/images/2023/11/15/Figure%202-10.png?itok=8TeNHa-I https://www.nist.gov/sites/default/files/styles/2800_x_2800_... Manufacturing fell from 25% of GDP in 1947 to 12% in 2015... but real GDP increased by 10x. So, the value of manufacturing output went up by ~4x over that span. https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/april/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/blog/2017/april/blogimage_manunomgdpshare_041117.jpg https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/april/-/media... What really went away were the jobs.
    - llamaimperative 2y ago
      Just further evidence of the accelerating returns to capital. It just makes less and less sense for America to be engaged in highly wealth-distributive (i.e. labor intensive) activities, more sense for it to engage in capital-intensive ones which, by definition, accrue further benefit to the owners of that capital. Yikes!
shiroiushi 2y ago
[flagged]
- mthoms 2y ago
  You’re missing the forest for the trees. The cause to celebrate is not that Apple chips are being made. It’s to celebrate that chips of such high calibre are being made. It’s only a start, but it’s a huge deal in an economic, technological and geopolitical context.
  - dgfitz 2y ago
    Yeah, it really is a big deal. I wish politics weren’t hitting this topic so hard. This is monumental.
  - shiroiushi 2y ago
    Yeah, that's great, but it will be a lot better when they're making high-caliber chips for multiple customers, not just one.
    - jjtheblunt 2y ago
      It looks like you’re complaining Apple happens to have placed first orders for the new fab. Maybe next week a run of Qualcomm Snapdragon Elite will begin production, for example. Is that second set of orders what you’re awaiting?
      - shiroiushi 2y ago
        Yes, basically. I don't like seeing what appears to be a whole ecosystem in the US centered on Apple. I really don't want to see a future where so much production is Apple-centered in America, that it's "un-American" to use non-Apple devices (because the Apple devices are mostly American-made, whereas the competitors are foreign-made). So seeing the US fabbing cutting-edge CPUs for a whole range of mobile devices from different vendors would be great.
KK7NIL 2y ago
> transferring knowledge from TSMC to a US workforce. No, no it's not. When semiconductor manufacture moved to Asia, this was generally done under a "technology transfer agreement", which was an explicit agreement for US companies to transfer their (usually older) tech to an independent local company who would then be allowed to manufacture it and develop it. This is how TSMC started, by doing a deal with Philips to manufacture for them but also to trained on the tech and to be allowed to use it themselves. This TSMC US fab (and Samsung's new fab) are not under such an agreement, it is directly run by TSMC with no explicit goal to transfer technology. I think it was a mistake for the US CHIPS act funding to go to such a venture without a clause for technology transfer back to a US company.
- klooney 2y ago
  The workers can walk away with whatever is in their heads
  - pests 2y ago
    Long walk back to Taiwan.
  - moooo99 2y ago
    I’ve seen this attitude in other fields and while it is conceptually true, the more complex the field, the more workers have to „walk away“ with their knowledge to have enough knowledge to be of any use
  - Joeri 2y ago
    Arizona has enforceable non-compete contracts, so they may walk away with the knowledge but they might not be allowed to use it.
    - cududa 2y ago
      Yes, and if China invades Taiwan, those noncompetes are going out the window and/ or the plant is getting nationalized
systemvoltage 2y ago
[flagged]
- calgarymicro 2y ago
  Well, one of the three fabs did. The newer two fabs, including the one with the most advanced processes, started in '22 and '24 respectively; that was thanks to the Biden Admin, per TSMC.[0][1] [0]https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm [1]https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3122 https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3122
  - laidoffamazon 2y ago
    Biden, Democrats and the moderate Republicans that came together to support this deserve the credit here. It's game changing stuff, a big chunk of which could be on the chopping block if the extreme takes power again.
    - mvelbaum 2y ago
      The extreme? His policy is literally to bring back as much manufacturing back to America.
      - laidoffamazon 2y ago
        Past is prologue - if he couldn’t do it then, how could he do it now? He’s already said he’d repeal the IRA. All he’s proposing is 10-20% universal tariffs that’ll raise the cost of off-season fruits and in-season coffee by 10-20%.
- laidoffamazon 2y ago
  Absolutely astounding to credit the guy on whose watch this literally did not happen for something that's happening now. Is this like the people that credited current infrastructure improvements to his infrastructure week that didn't happen?
nineteen999 2y ago
One can only hope that the US learned from its mistake, and doesn't allow chip manufacturing to go offshore to that degree again in future peaceful times.
- VWWHFSfQ 2y ago
  > US learned from its mistake, and doesn't allow chip manufacturing to go offshore to that degree again I don't think USA made any mistake. It was always heavily invested in South Korea and Taiwan. Neither of them would even exist today without USA's investment, interest, and stewardship. Intel is the one that made the mistake.
  - mschuster91 2y ago
    On top of that, the US outsourced of a very very ecologically damaging part of industry. The remains of Silicon Valley, literally named after the hotbed of what was manufactured there, are the largest concentration of Superfund sites in the US.
    - flakeoil 2y ago
      Is it that ecologically damaging? Maybe in the old times when silicon wafers where produced in Silicon Valley and when no-one thought or cared much about the environment. But today, I would assume the damaging effects of semiconductor manufacturing are less profound. But I do not know. Any inputs are welcome.
      - mschuster91 2y ago
        > But today, I would assume the damaging effects of semiconductor manufacturing are less profound Manufacturing chips of just TSMC accounts for 5% (!) of Taiwan's entire electricity consumption, Intel's Arizona fab produces thousands of tons of hazardous waste a year [1]. It's far from the old days, but still a massive impact. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/18/semiconductor-silicon-chips-carbon-footprint-climate https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/18/semicond...
bongodongobob 2y ago
Maybe you should visit the rust belt/midwest before SV starts patting itself on the back for single-handedly re-invigorating the economy. I get the spirit, but flyover country is not doing great. Unemployment is rising and there is a severe lack of decent paying jobs. Chips are great, but everything else is made in Asia. Increased automation is making a ton of jobs obsolete and there is no solution in sight yet. Chips ain't gonna do it.
- tomcam 2y ago
  You are completely correct. But the chips have immense strategic value. Not being able to manufacture them would be catastrophic in the event that China cut us off.
- epistasis 2y ago
  Maybe you should look at actual stats for what's going on in the economy before being completely cynical. The investment in factories is absolutely massive over the past few years. The Inflation Reduction Act is bringing massive amounts of manufacturing into the US, starting with the lowest value add of assembly, and after that additional suppliers lower down the chain will be built up too. It is not SV reinvigorating the economy, it's not happening in SV, it's happening in small towns all over the country. It's happening due to the bills that Democrats passed over Republican opposition, but because of politics, it's not being trumpeted as a partisan win in the towns where factories are being built.
  - laidoffamazon 2y ago
    > The investment in factories is absolutely massive over the past few years. The fascinating thing is people don't want to believe this. They'll make every excuse before admitting that it's true. They want to be in a declining empire when the reality is the opposite.
    - riehwvfbk 2y ago
      That's because reality that is readily observable by these people does not match the reality reported by the media and the reality portrayed in Democrat speeches. In that alternate reality manufacturing-heavy towns are booming and not dying out. US-made automobiles are the most advanced and Detroit is a world-class city. And it's simply not true, much like what Pravda would report back in the day.
bydo 2y ago
This is (only a few years later than the rest of the world's) state-of-the-art manufacturing, built only with the expertise of a Taiwanese company, that relies on the technology of a Dutch company, that in turn purchased (and has since monopolized) its IP from another US company, twenty years ago, and only then because a number of other companies (notably Canon and Nikon, both in Japan) were excluded from using it. It is not something to be celebrated. What TSMC and ASML are doing is amazing, but we could be so much further ahead.
- breerbgoat 2y ago
  If you look at it from a geopolitical angle, it's much to be celebrated. It means US can rely on its democratic like minded friends to help protect the supply chain of cutting edge chips, against the now very visible alliance of dictatorships (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran). And make no doubt about it, there is a democratic alliance vs dictatorships here. Russia is aggressively sourcing artillery shells from North Korea, ballistic missiles from Iran, and financing and weapons from China. China incidentally is the economic caretaker of Iran and North Korea. US accuses China of giving ‘very substantial’ help to Russia’s war machine https://www.politico.eu/article/united-states-accuse-china-help-russia-war-kurt-campbell/ https://www.politico.eu/article/united-states-accuse-china-h... China’s Double Threat to Europe: How Beijing’s Support for Moscow and Quest for EV Dominance Undermine European Security https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-double-threat-europe https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-double-threat-eu...
  - thomasahle 2y ago
    > If you look at it from a geopolitical angle, it's much to be celebrated. I'm not sure. Taiwan is already a democratic ally. They are relying on the chip manufacture to keep them safe politically. Without that they'll quickly get "absorbed" by China. The US decoupling and isolating technologically/economically from the rest of the world, likely makes war more likely. Not less.
    - codethief 2y ago
      China has already been working hard on decoupling from the West, likely because they are anticipating conflict in the future, so I don't think we'd be doing ourselves a favor by continuing to rely on our supply chains in Asia. In-sourcing doesn't make that conflict more likely, but it does increase our options to react if push comes to shove.
InkCanon 2y ago
I wonder how Taiwan feels about this. From their perspective jobs are getting offshored from their country because of massive subsidies, and the strategic shield of having most critical semiconductors coming from them is getting getting thinner. At the same time they can't complain because only the US could defend them from China.
- ip26 2y ago
  I've always thought there's some geopolitical chess at here. The US can't abide being completely dependent on the island of Taiwan. So if TSMC wasn't willing to do this, the US might fund an alternative. This could leave Taiwan no leverage at all. Now, with some US based production, TSMC is still in charge, and more resilient to disruption. So it may still be a very strong move.
  - ImJamal 2y ago
    I am not sure if Taiwan has any real leverage. If Taiwan is destroyed or otherwise compromised by China, the US would probably seize the American branch of TSMC, force the sale of the American branch to a western company, or force TSMC America become an independent company.
    - zarzavat 2y ago
      Isn't that like China seizing an iPhone factory and declaring that they are going to make the next iPhone? I doubt that a TSMC US fab can function independently for very long in the case of invasion, the Taiwanese govt presumably did this calculation before signing off on it.
      - mjevans 2y ago
        Context matters. Reactions to active conflict have a different threshold than normal civil operations. The interests of the US are biased towards continued peace. War is inherently value destructive (even if the military industrial complex gets to sell more stuff for a bit) so a majority of the population from a multitude of perspectives would rather remain fat and happy with their circuses (sports-ball). That balance changes, as it has since the dawn of western history times, when outside forces disrupt the regular machinations of the people. When events like Pearl Harbor, the turn of the century terrorist airplane hijackings that turned them into missiles and America's citizens into hostages to our own national security theater paranoia, or some country turning the place all of our iPhone and computer brains are fabricated in into a war zone.
resters 2y ago
You really think it's a success to force Apple to lose money to make US politicians look like they are "doing something" about a world economy that is increasingly leaving the US in the dust? Meanwhile in China, 1000 engineers (to one in the US) are building all kinds of electronics and embedded systems on shoestring budgets that truly force them to learn engineering. China's industrial policy architects are likely laughing at this big folly on the part of the US. The worst is the 100% tariff on EVs which keeps the US in an artificial economy of gigafactory, high-end nonsense when the rest of the world will be getting true economies of scale from EVs which are actually simple, reliable and low cost. It's deeply embarrassing that the US must suffer poltical rule of its economy along with the double embarrassment of seeing other nations do it so much more effectively. Industrial policy should be measured in terms of person months of career acceleration (experience) per dollar. The US focuses on helping prolong the dominance of internal combustion engines and taxing high profile, high-end companies that do not offer skills that transfer well into the rest of the economy. How many Apples are there? Will forcing manufacture in the US suddenly result in another company doing 2nm process and competing with Apple? It's absurd. I know of a variety of small and medium sized US tech companies (aerospace and 3d printing / robotics) that were almost sunk by US "industrial policy" becasue they relied on a small number of China-manufactured inputs that suddenly became unavailable, forcing unplanned re-engineering and work the companies could not afford. Sadly, one went under. Meanwhile, the US firms that import finished goods are thriving selling Chinese manufactured gear -- Chinese companies didn't have to pay US tariffs on the same inputs. Utterly absurd. Politicians should stay out of the economy and focus on moving us closer to nuclear war and promoting the religion of American Exceptionalism.
- worldsayshi 2y ago
  > Industrial policy should be measured in terms of person months of career acceleration (experience) per dollar Sounds about right but how would you come close to measuring that?
  - resters 2y ago
    China probably measures it. In the US it's probably driven by a Fox News opinion poll of rural PA voters.
yarg 2y ago
This is a move with swinging geopolitical implications. But the value and urgency of the reinvigoration of the American manufacturing centre cannot be overstated. China's gonna be a bit salty though. What I really want them building in America though is low-end AMD chips for development boards. 4-Core/8-Thread CPU, 4-Core GPU, 16 GB ram, sane IO, and however many of Xilinx's FPGAs they can put on it without overdoing it. People would be able to make some pretty decent things with that.
Refusing23 2y ago
It also helps TSMC, i think. More "allegiance" with the US while China is scrambling to catch up
stackghost 2y ago
I've long been of the belief that, much like uranium enrichment, supply chain integrity of semiconductors will become a national security issue. We've seen it already in reverse with export controls being placed on GPU cards, and of course there is a reason the NSA operates its own chip fab. The threat to western economies of (for lack of a better term) "poisoned" chips making their way into phones, laptops, industrial SCADA equipment, etc. is real if nascent. On-shoring top-tier manufacturers like is absolutely a win not just for the high-tech manufacturing sector but also for the US and allied countries. >This is great news, and we should celebrate. Couldn't agree more.
misja111 2y ago
Not only that, the US now also has some backup when China will invade Taiwan and take over TSMC.
vagrantJin 2y ago
> we in the US are going to be building our own future both for chips and for energy security. > just the beginning of the amazing industrial policy Isn't intel one of the biggest companies in the world, makes chips for everyone and everything and based in the US? If the marker for industrial success is supplying Apple Inc, Intel did until 2022?
ninetyninenine 2y ago
>This is a significant win for the US, and just the beginning of the amazing industrial policy passed over the past few years. I don't consider it a win. I consider it a loss. This is a desperate move by the US. Intel making better chips then TSMC is a win. The government strong arming Taiwan with "protection" from China in order to gain this technology is a display of American incompetence. But then again maybe is't not about fair play. If the US wins by unfair means, it's still a win? A pathetic win but a win none the less.
- breerbgoat 2y ago
  Someone in the thread mentioned "China's gonna be a bit salty though." I see what salty China looks like now.
  - ninetyninenine 2y ago
    I’m an American though. But yes, of course China will be pissed. I suspect China wants this though. Once the US has Taiwan semiconductor technology there’s no need to protect Taiwan and China can move in. Symbolically Taiwan represents more to China than some island that makes great chips. I still think it’s better if intel was able to pull it off, but i don’t think us Americans have the capability.
- matrix87 2y ago
  There's a common pattern here, it's easier for them to import fresh meat than fix the rotting carcass back home Whether that's fair or not, who really cares, what can we do about it
  - ninetyninenine 2y ago
    As an American I care because it’s shameful and rather pathetic. And remember stuffing a rotting carcass with imported fresh meat doesn’t actually fix the rotting carcass. I look at where all the talent is going in the US and it’s all full stack software engineers and gen AI.
mihaaly 2y ago
Wave the flag and have colourful fireworks with hand at the heart and tears in the eyes, this is a glorious moment the children will cheer its glory in glorious essays!
crote 2y ago
> US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated, and we in the US are going to be building our own future both for chips and for energy security. Don't count on it. For every high-end chip you need hundreds of commodity parts to support them, and nobody is investing in US factories to make $0.001 capacitors or $0.10 connectors. You just can't compete with cheap Chinese labor, so the US supply lines will never be able to equal a city like Shenzhen. Unless the US is willing to get rid of capitalism and switch to a plan economy, most of those expensive high-end chips will just be shipped to Asia for assembly. So much for building your own future.
- sgu999 2y ago
  > most of those expensive high-end chips will just be shipped to Asia for assembly I get the first part of your comment, but why wouldn't all the missing components be imported for assembly in the US? SMT lines in particular don't need that much cheap labour to operate. Even Brits can assemble PCBs!
  - crote 2y ago
    Either you ship one component to Asia where it'll be combined with thousands of parts made by factories literally in the same city, or you're shipping all those thousands of parts over the US for assembly. Even with zero labor cost for assembly it's not hard to guess which option is cheaper and easier to manage.
- swalsh 2y ago
  "You just can't compete with cheap Chinese labor" You sure can, we have cheap Mexican labor... and we have a much healthier trade relationship with Mexico.
- mike50 2y ago
  Those components are not used in military products. Specialized vendors manufacture passives for the military. AVX, CDE and Vishay are just the first three I recall.
- themaninthedark 2y ago
pyrale 2y ago
> This is great news, and we should celebrate. On the other hand, this is a protectionist policy that has been straining US' relations with its allies. That development means the US empire is a little less mutually beneficial, and a little more beneficial to the core. Its success requires these allies not to reciprocate, and this is a long-term prospect that only time will confirm.
norswap 2y ago
Hold your horses — this will only produce a fraction of the chips, and probably at a much higher cost. It's a step in the right direction for the policy goals, but they've really just entered the woods with this one.
- swalsh 2y ago
  But it also makes us not dependent on a place that China has their literal sights focused on.
Keyframe 2y ago
...transferring knowledge from TSMC to a US workforce. This is a significant win for the US... I get what you're saying and I agree, but there's some heavy irony in saying that considering that's exactly how TSMC started out but from the opposite side; Transferring knowledge from "the west" (RCA from US and Philips) with ITRI it evolved into a project of Taiwanese state which culminated in TSMC.
ActionHank 2y ago
I feel like you are running around high fiving everyone for a job well done and the first chips aren't even off the line yet. This is a huge milestone, but it seems a little premature.
swalsh 2y ago
"US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated" Oh i'm going to be downvoted into oblivion for this one.... but I think this is a win we can give to Trump. It was a hard focus of his, I think he put the right people in place to do it, and I think time is going to prove he was right to do it. I didn't vote for him in 2016, but I think it's important to acknowledge it.
- erellsworth 2y ago
  This is because of the CHIPS act. Other than Trump's constant whinging about China, he didn't have anything to do with this.
  - swalsh 2y ago
    I understand, but I was commenting specifically around the comment "US Manufacturing is reinvigorating" which it is, and which is more general than chips. I think when the Trump admin renegotiated trade policies (and I'll given Biden credit for keeping them) the economic incentives were rebalanced. I think the result is complex/low volume manufacturing is starting to return to the US, and simple high volume manufacturing is moving to Mexico (which we have a very good relationship with... i'll discredit Trump for being so stupidly aggressive with them in the first few months of his administration though)
apercu 2y ago
Yep. We should be investing our tax dollars in our economy and our people.
thisconnect 2y ago
> US manufacturing America is a continent.
ckemere 2y ago
Agree that TSMC is good news. > US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated I’d suggest you post a small/medium quantity machining RFP on MFG.com with a medium to high complexity. I’ve been quite discouraged that US vs China price differences are 5-10x. (My part was a custom M0.8 screw in quantity ~500.) It seems that without a vibrant base of small businesses, it will be very challenging to truly reinvigorate US manufacturing. And that would require reforming the finance sector/allocation of capital that currently is skewing really heavily towards “scale”.
Workaccount2 2y ago
>and we have top tier production here in the US TSMC's process that they are bringing to the US is 2nd tier. The crown jewels are being kept at home. If Intel can get their act together, then we will have top tier in the US.
- zrail 2y ago
  That's not really true, afaict. This press release[1] states that Fab 21 (Arizona) phase 1 is 4nm, which is not the best but clearly is enough to manufacture the A16, phase 2 opening in 2026 will be 3nm, and phase 3 will be 2nm or better. I'm not a semiconductor engineer so maybe there's some process nuance that I don't know, but it certainly seems that this is at or near the top of TSMC's process list. [1]: https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2977 https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2977
  - talldayo 2y ago
    Those are decently advanced nodes, but if 3nm isn't coming until 2026 then this is absolutely a last-gen fab. For reference, Samsung is considered a "last-gen/trailing gen" fab, and they'll be shipping 2nm in 2026 on their roadmap. Taiwan's TSMC will have a process and sampling edge for the foreseeable future, unless they change the roadmap.
lossolo 2y ago
I think you are overly optimistic, this is an older process, which means that next iphones will need to source their CPUs from TSMC fabs in Asia, not from US. There also will be no knowledge transfer, that was not part of the deal. It's more of a national security political message than a real change. I guess it's better than nothing. I wouldn't call it a significant win, but it’s a step in the right direction. And fabs are not enough: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-03/us-needs-to-innovate-to-stay-ahead-of-china-in-chips https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-03/us-nee... You can't lead in the energy transition or produce chips without the supply chain and critical minerals: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-harnesses-a-technology-that-vexed-the-west-unlocking-a-treasure-chest-5d984585?st=1assyg4kncgr3jz https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-harnesses-a-technology-... https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/29/biden-minerals-price-support-china-00176777 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/29/biden-minerals-pric... https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/13/steelmaker-biden-climate-grant-00179145 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/13/steelmaker-biden-cl... There's still a lot more to do to actually make it work before you can celebrate a win.
AndrewKemendo 2y ago
Why did it take the United States government having to invest in US labor? Why wasn’t the “free market” Capitalism allocating resources to the United States if in fact, it is the best place for this to happen? Or is this just garden variety realpolitik nationalism?
BiteCode_dev 2y ago
This also lowers the Taiwan risk, which was increasingly high after the China chip ban.
eru 2y ago
> After all the wailing and rending of clothes, the industrial policy worked out great and we have top tier production here in the US, transferring knowledge from TSMC to a US workforce. > This is a significant win for the US, and just the beginning of the amazing industrial policy passed over the past few years. I'm not sure these conclusions are justified. It's the 'seen vs unseen'.
TaylorAlexander 2y ago
I actually think the extreme density and breadth of manufacturing in China is going to continue to outpace US manufacturing. They have multiple enormous manufacturing hubs connected by high speed rail lines over a wide geographic area. The US has no equivalent to the likes of Shenzhen and Guangzhou, where you can finish a PCB design in the morning and have the prototype in hand that evening. You can go to the Huaqiangbei Electronics Market and find exactly the right motor and controller for your specs, pick up specialized sensors, and build your next rev overnight. I have lived in the Bay Area my entire adult life. We used to have Halted/HSC, we used to have Weird Stuff. We used to have Triangle Machinery Co in Santa Clara. Now everything is gone. I think it’s great that we built a semiconductor manufacturing plant. That’s important for strategic manufacturing. But we’ve so thoroughly destroyed our manufacturing base, let the factories rot, and financialized property value that the “weird place with random electronics” can no longer even afford to do business. Starbucks makes more money, so in it goes. US politicians love to shout about manufacturing. “Manufacturing jobs jobs economy growth.” But these people DO NOT understand how things get made. They have no serious industrial policy. They do not know the value of a high speed train connecting manufacturing centers. And even if they did, the entire apparatus of our government is set up to stop it. Manufacturing workers need education. They need housing, transit, health care, maternity and sick leave. They need secure jobs and extra income that allows them time off to take classes to learn new skills. I’m glad we passed the inflation reduction act, and the CHIPS act. We need that investment. But it’s going to take much more than that to “bring manufacturing back” and I’ve have seen time and time again that we do not have the vision or capability to move in the ways that would be required. I hope manufacturing comes back. We desperately need it. But I’m quite frustrated that despite some marginal progress, the serious changes we need are not on the horizon nor seemingly beyond it.
- mptest 2y ago
  Perfect comment, it's important to celebrate but more important to keep in mind it's a tiny piece of the public infrastructure and government inertia we need to do this correctly. We need exactly what you describe, and I want to bolster the mention of education. China produces 2x the stem phds we do every year. Sure, bigger population, but they also have a growing share of citations. (source for both is suleyman's book "the coming wave")
bboygravity 2y ago
It's also terrible/impossible news from a USD perspective if the US produces things nationally in a significant way (importing less, selling less printed USD in exchange for goods). Printing insane amounts of USD to allow for systemic government over-spending and huge untenable government debt doesn't go hand in hand with not importing most goods. You can't keep your currency strong if you can't force others to buy your currency. If you have a lot of production in the US, this is going to cause hyperinflation to come sooner. In the long term it won't matter, the end result is the same, but if production significantly moves back to the US it will be very scary from a currency perspective.
- digital-cygnet 2y ago
  I don't see the argument here. Importing less leads to selling less USD (yes), somehow leading to devaluation of USD? Is the implication that the dollar is strong because the US government "forces others" (foreign manufacturers) to buy it? Isn't that the opposite of the first thought, which implied that "selling less printed USD" was the reason that domestic manufacturing would be inflationary? I don't understand the causality, and it doesn't match my mental model ("a country that can build things domestically at a competitive price point should be deflationary because now there is more supply of stuff and equal supply of money"), so I think this could do with some expanding.
EasyMark 2y ago
I think it falls back on lots of elites feeling that only “one special group” can do a thing. The pendulum swung too far into the “globalist”agenda and now it’s swinging back. I’m sure it will overshoot and we’ll be back to globalism within a decade, but I for one welcome anchoring more things to the domestic economy; the US is a huge country with lots of resources and lots of untapped potential (despite not being China big) and we could use some of that trickle down economy that the globalists have been hoarding for a while now.

pbhjpbhj 2y ago

So the free market was the enemy all along, what we needed was state planning?

louwrentius 2y ago
[flagged]
- sgu999 2y ago
  What are you doing with these 70TB of storage? I was meant to ask the other day when you reached the front page, but someone asked me a question during the meeting I was in. (Your comment made me giggle so I went looking for more banter on a potential blog, sorry for creeping up)
  - louwrentius 2y ago
    I've answered that question here below the picture: https://louwrentius.com/71-tib-diy-nas-based-on-zfs-on-linux.html https://louwrentius.com/71-tib-diy-nas-based-on-zfs-on-linux...
anon291 2y ago
The free market actually works great under the assumption of governments not acting irrationally. However, since China has expressed interest in war with Taiwan (not a thing advised by the free market), someone needs to address that. In terms of economics, this is a net loss, but then again, the effects of war in Taiwan would be worse.
sph 2y ago
The free market is an innocent scapegoat that never existed in any government. As long as the State makes the laws, it is a form of state planning. The only different between Soviet Russia and modern Western countries is how heavy the hand of the state tries to move the needle of the market. But I agree on the sentiment: everybody seems to have decided the state should control the market even further than it did three decades ago. Free market was never given a chance.
EasyMark 2y ago
The free market often needs nudges in the right direction. The free market is a rule of thumb and not an actual Scientific Law. When left unchecked it ultimately eats itself

lettergram 2y ago

Notably, this was started in 2020 with a $12B investment - https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm Then in 2022, TSMC invested another $18B and received $6.6B from the CHIPS act. My bet, is TSMC was given a “you build in the US or we wont give you defense contract work” in 2018-2020 timeframe lol

iknowstuff 2y ago
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act#History https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act#Histor...
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- thatwasunusual 2y ago
  Of course Republicans opposed it. :-/
  - nebula8804 2y ago
    Does it matter? They played pretend opposition like they always do. Democrats can pass this stuff no problem but people elected the opposition party to advance meaningful democratic reforms like better health care, dealing with housing, increasing minimum wage. They haven't done anything. Its blatantly obvious this chips bill was a giant handout to corporations. Sure the plens get a few breadcrumbs but its pointless to point to republicans when both sides are not really enacting fundamental change for the common man.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
klyrs 2y ago
> My bet, is TSMC was given a “you build in the US or we wont give you defense contract work” in 2018-2020 timeframe lol TSMC is in an extremely precarious geopolitical situation; China's hardball is a lot scarier than Trump's. Expanding their geographical redundancy through billions in handouts is pretty appealing to investors.

mlyle 2y ago

> US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated One thing that I think that frequently eludes people in this discussion is that US manufacturing has pretty much been constantly growing for the past century; just its share of GDP has fallen as other sectors have grown faster. And the share of the workforce has fallen even faster, as the actual manufacturing has moved towards higher value items and greater degrees of automation. I think the actual outcome of this policy is mixed. I think it was a big case of corporate welfare that will result in somewhat increased chip production in the US. I think this is a win for national security. I don't think the government applying such levers to change how the market allocates capital probably won't be a win for economic output or quality of life.

jojobas 2y ago
This might be true, but the rust belt is called that for a reason. I also wonder what's the share of non-disposable products in US and other Western countries manufacturing.
- mlyle 2y ago
  > This might be true, but the rust belt is called that for a reason. > > as the actual manufacturing has moved towards higher value items and greater degrees of automation. US manufacturing has moved away from things like primary metals, which the steel belt had focused on, and towards things further up the value chain. https://www.nist.gov/sites/default/files/styles/2800_x_2800_limit/public/images/2023/11/15/Figure%202-10.png?itok=8TeNHa-I https://www.nist.gov/sites/default/files/styles/2800_x_2800_... Manufacturing fell from 25% of GDP in 1947 to 12% in 2015... but real GDP increased by 10x. So, the value of manufacturing output went up by ~4x over that span. https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/april/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/blog/2017/april/blogimage_manunomgdpshare_041117.jpg https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/april/-/media... What really went away were the jobs.
  - llamaimperative 2y ago
    Just further evidence of the accelerating returns to capital. It just makes less and less sense for America to be engaged in highly wealth-distributive (i.e. labor intensive) activities, more sense for it to engage in capital-intensive ones which, by definition, accrue further benefit to the owners of that capital. Yikes!

shiroiushi 2y ago

[flagged]

mthoms 2y ago
You’re missing the forest for the trees. The cause to celebrate is not that Apple chips are being made. It’s to celebrate that chips of such high calibre are being made. It’s only a start, but it’s a huge deal in an economic, technological and geopolitical context.
- dgfitz 2y ago
  Yeah, it really is a big deal. I wish politics weren’t hitting this topic so hard. This is monumental.
- shiroiushi 2y ago
  Yeah, that's great, but it will be a lot better when they're making high-caliber chips for multiple customers, not just one.
  - jjtheblunt 2y ago
    It looks like you’re complaining Apple happens to have placed first orders for the new fab. Maybe next week a run of Qualcomm Snapdragon Elite will begin production, for example. Is that second set of orders what you’re awaiting?
    - shiroiushi 2y ago
      Yes, basically. I don't like seeing what appears to be a whole ecosystem in the US centered on Apple. I really don't want to see a future where so much production is Apple-centered in America, that it's "un-American" to use non-Apple devices (because the Apple devices are mostly American-made, whereas the competitors are foreign-made). So seeing the US fabbing cutting-edge CPUs for a whole range of mobile devices from different vendors would be great.

KK7NIL 2y ago

> transferring knowledge from TSMC to a US workforce. No, no it's not. When semiconductor manufacture moved to Asia, this was generally done under a "technology transfer agreement", which was an explicit agreement for US companies to transfer their (usually older) tech to an independent local company who would then be allowed to manufacture it and develop it. This is how TSMC started, by doing a deal with Philips to manufacture for them but also to trained on the tech and to be allowed to use it themselves. This TSMC US fab (and Samsung's new fab) are not under such an agreement, it is directly run by TSMC with no explicit goal to transfer technology. I think it was a mistake for the US CHIPS act funding to go to such a venture without a clause for technology transfer back to a US company.

klooney 2y ago
The workers can walk away with whatever is in their heads
- pests 2y ago
  Long walk back to Taiwan.
- moooo99 2y ago
  I’ve seen this attitude in other fields and while it is conceptually true, the more complex the field, the more workers have to „walk away“ with their knowledge to have enough knowledge to be of any use
- Joeri 2y ago
  Arizona has enforceable non-compete contracts, so they may walk away with the knowledge but they might not be allowed to use it.
  - cududa 2y ago
    Yes, and if China invades Taiwan, those noncompetes are going out the window and/ or the plant is getting nationalized

systemvoltage 2y ago

[flagged]

calgarymicro 2y ago
Well, one of the three fabs did. The newer two fabs, including the one with the most advanced processes, started in '22 and '24 respectively; that was thanks to the Biden Admin, per TSMC.[0][1] [0]https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm [1]https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3122 https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3122
- laidoffamazon 2y ago
  Biden, Democrats and the moderate Republicans that came together to support this deserve the credit here. It's game changing stuff, a big chunk of which could be on the chopping block if the extreme takes power again.
  - mvelbaum 2y ago
    The extreme? His policy is literally to bring back as much manufacturing back to America.
    - laidoffamazon 2y ago
      Past is prologue - if he couldn’t do it then, how could he do it now? He’s already said he’d repeal the IRA. All he’s proposing is 10-20% universal tariffs that’ll raise the cost of off-season fruits and in-season coffee by 10-20%.
laidoffamazon 2y ago
Absolutely astounding to credit the guy on whose watch this literally did not happen for something that's happening now. Is this like the people that credited current infrastructure improvements to his infrastructure week that didn't happen?

nineteen999 2y ago

One can only hope that the US learned from its mistake, and doesn't allow chip manufacturing to go offshore to that degree again in future peaceful times.

VWWHFSfQ 2y ago
> US learned from its mistake, and doesn't allow chip manufacturing to go offshore to that degree again I don't think USA made any mistake. It was always heavily invested in South Korea and Taiwan. Neither of them would even exist today without USA's investment, interest, and stewardship. Intel is the one that made the mistake.
- mschuster91 2y ago
  On top of that, the US outsourced of a very very ecologically damaging part of industry. The remains of Silicon Valley, literally named after the hotbed of what was manufactured there, are the largest concentration of Superfund sites in the US.
  - flakeoil 2y ago
    Is it that ecologically damaging? Maybe in the old times when silicon wafers where produced in Silicon Valley and when no-one thought or cared much about the environment. But today, I would assume the damaging effects of semiconductor manufacturing are less profound. But I do not know. Any inputs are welcome.
    - mschuster91 2y ago
      > But today, I would assume the damaging effects of semiconductor manufacturing are less profound Manufacturing chips of just TSMC accounts for 5% (!) of Taiwan's entire electricity consumption, Intel's Arizona fab produces thousands of tons of hazardous waste a year [1]. It's far from the old days, but still a massive impact. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/18/semiconductor-silicon-chips-carbon-footprint-climate https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/18/semicond...

bongodongobob 2y ago

Maybe you should visit the rust belt/midwest before SV starts patting itself on the back for single-handedly re-invigorating the economy. I get the spirit, but flyover country is not doing great. Unemployment is rising and there is a severe lack of decent paying jobs. Chips are great, but everything else is made in Asia. Increased automation is making a ton of jobs obsolete and there is no solution in sight yet. Chips ain't gonna do it.

tomcam 2y ago
You are completely correct. But the chips have immense strategic value. Not being able to manufacture them would be catastrophic in the event that China cut us off.
epistasis 2y ago
Maybe you should look at actual stats for what's going on in the economy before being completely cynical. The investment in factories is absolutely massive over the past few years. The Inflation Reduction Act is bringing massive amounts of manufacturing into the US, starting with the lowest value add of assembly, and after that additional suppliers lower down the chain will be built up too. It is not SV reinvigorating the economy, it's not happening in SV, it's happening in small towns all over the country. It's happening due to the bills that Democrats passed over Republican opposition, but because of politics, it's not being trumpeted as a partisan win in the towns where factories are being built.
- laidoffamazon 2y ago
  > The investment in factories is absolutely massive over the past few years. The fascinating thing is people don't want to believe this. They'll make every excuse before admitting that it's true. They want to be in a declining empire when the reality is the opposite.
  - riehwvfbk 2y ago
    That's because reality that is readily observable by these people does not match the reality reported by the media and the reality portrayed in Democrat speeches. In that alternate reality manufacturing-heavy towns are booming and not dying out. US-made automobiles are the most advanced and Detroit is a world-class city. And it's simply not true, much like what Pravda would report back in the day.

bydo 2y ago

This is (only a few years later than the rest of the world's) state-of-the-art manufacturing, built only with the expertise of a Taiwanese company, that relies on the technology of a Dutch company, that in turn purchased (and has since monopolized) its IP from another US company, twenty years ago, and only then because a number of other companies (notably Canon and Nikon, both in Japan) were excluded from using it. It is not something to be celebrated. What TSMC and ASML are doing is amazing, but we could be so much further ahead.

breerbgoat 2y ago
If you look at it from a geopolitical angle, it's much to be celebrated. It means US can rely on its democratic like minded friends to help protect the supply chain of cutting edge chips, against the now very visible alliance of dictatorships (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran). And make no doubt about it, there is a democratic alliance vs dictatorships here. Russia is aggressively sourcing artillery shells from North Korea, ballistic missiles from Iran, and financing and weapons from China. China incidentally is the economic caretaker of Iran and North Korea. US accuses China of giving ‘very substantial’ help to Russia’s war machine https://www.politico.eu/article/united-states-accuse-china-help-russia-war-kurt-campbell/ https://www.politico.eu/article/united-states-accuse-china-h... China’s Double Threat to Europe: How Beijing’s Support for Moscow and Quest for EV Dominance Undermine European Security https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-double-threat-europe https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-double-threat-eu...
- thomasahle 2y ago
  > If you look at it from a geopolitical angle, it's much to be celebrated. I'm not sure. Taiwan is already a democratic ally. They are relying on the chip manufacture to keep them safe politically. Without that they'll quickly get "absorbed" by China. The US decoupling and isolating technologically/economically from the rest of the world, likely makes war more likely. Not less.
  - codethief 2y ago
    China has already been working hard on decoupling from the West, likely because they are anticipating conflict in the future, so I don't think we'd be doing ourselves a favor by continuing to rely on our supply chains in Asia. In-sourcing doesn't make that conflict more likely, but it does increase our options to react if push comes to shove.

InkCanon 2y ago

I wonder how Taiwan feels about this. From their perspective jobs are getting offshored from their country because of massive subsidies, and the strategic shield of having most critical semiconductors coming from them is getting getting thinner. At the same time they can't complain because only the US could defend them from China.

ip26 2y ago
I've always thought there's some geopolitical chess at here. The US can't abide being completely dependent on the island of Taiwan. So if TSMC wasn't willing to do this, the US might fund an alternative. This could leave Taiwan no leverage at all. Now, with some US based production, TSMC is still in charge, and more resilient to disruption. So it may still be a very strong move.
- ImJamal 2y ago
  I am not sure if Taiwan has any real leverage. If Taiwan is destroyed or otherwise compromised by China, the US would probably seize the American branch of TSMC, force the sale of the American branch to a western company, or force TSMC America become an independent company.
  - zarzavat 2y ago
    Isn't that like China seizing an iPhone factory and declaring that they are going to make the next iPhone? I doubt that a TSMC US fab can function independently for very long in the case of invasion, the Taiwanese govt presumably did this calculation before signing off on it.
    - mjevans 2y ago
      Context matters. Reactions to active conflict have a different threshold than normal civil operations. The interests of the US are biased towards continued peace. War is inherently value destructive (even if the military industrial complex gets to sell more stuff for a bit) so a majority of the population from a multitude of perspectives would rather remain fat and happy with their circuses (sports-ball). That balance changes, as it has since the dawn of western history times, when outside forces disrupt the regular machinations of the people. When events like Pearl Harbor, the turn of the century terrorist airplane hijackings that turned them into missiles and America's citizens into hostages to our own national security theater paranoia, or some country turning the place all of our iPhone and computer brains are fabricated in into a war zone.

resters 2y ago

You really think it's a success to force Apple to lose money to make US politicians look like they are "doing something" about a world economy that is increasingly leaving the US in the dust? Meanwhile in China, 1000 engineers (to one in the US) are building all kinds of electronics and embedded systems on shoestring budgets that truly force them to learn engineering. China's industrial policy architects are likely laughing at this big folly on the part of the US. The worst is the 100% tariff on EVs which keeps the US in an artificial economy of gigafactory, high-end nonsense when the rest of the world will be getting true economies of scale from EVs which are actually simple, reliable and low cost. It's deeply embarrassing that the US must suffer poltical rule of its economy along with the double embarrassment of seeing other nations do it so much more effectively. Industrial policy should be measured in terms of person months of career acceleration (experience) per dollar. The US focuses on helping prolong the dominance of internal combustion engines and taxing high profile, high-end companies that do not offer skills that transfer well into the rest of the economy. How many Apples are there? Will forcing manufacture in the US suddenly result in another company doing 2nm process and competing with Apple? It's absurd. I know of a variety of small and medium sized US tech companies (aerospace and 3d printing / robotics) that were almost sunk by US "industrial policy" becasue they relied on a small number of China-manufactured inputs that suddenly became unavailable, forcing unplanned re-engineering and work the companies could not afford. Sadly, one went under. Meanwhile, the US firms that import finished goods are thriving selling Chinese manufactured gear -- Chinese companies didn't have to pay US tariffs on the same inputs. Utterly absurd. Politicians should stay out of the economy and focus on moving us closer to nuclear war and promoting the religion of American Exceptionalism.

worldsayshi 2y ago
> Industrial policy should be measured in terms of person months of career acceleration (experience) per dollar Sounds about right but how would you come close to measuring that?
- resters 2y ago
  China probably measures it. In the US it's probably driven by a Fox News opinion poll of rural PA voters.

yarg 2y ago

This is a move with swinging geopolitical implications. But the value and urgency of the reinvigoration of the American manufacturing centre cannot be overstated. China's gonna be a bit salty though. What I really want them building in America though is low-end AMD chips for development boards. 4-Core/8-Thread CPU, 4-Core GPU, 16 GB ram, sane IO, and however many of Xilinx's FPGAs they can put on it without overdoing it. People would be able to make some pretty decent things with that.

Refusing23 2y ago

It also helps TSMC, i think. More "allegiance" with the US while China is scrambling to catch up

stackghost 2y ago

I've long been of the belief that, much like uranium enrichment, supply chain integrity of semiconductors will become a national security issue. We've seen it already in reverse with export controls being placed on GPU cards, and of course there is a reason the NSA operates its own chip fab. The threat to western economies of (for lack of a better term) "poisoned" chips making their way into phones, laptops, industrial SCADA equipment, etc. is real if nascent. On-shoring top-tier manufacturers like is absolutely a win not just for the high-tech manufacturing sector but also for the US and allied countries. >This is great news, and we should celebrate. Couldn't agree more.

misja111 2y ago

Not only that, the US now also has some backup when China will invade Taiwan and take over TSMC.

vagrantJin 2y ago

> we in the US are going to be building our own future both for chips and for energy security. > just the beginning of the amazing industrial policy Isn't intel one of the biggest companies in the world, makes chips for everyone and everything and based in the US? If the marker for industrial success is supplying Apple Inc, Intel did until 2022?

ninetyninenine 2y ago

>This is a significant win for the US, and just the beginning of the amazing industrial policy passed over the past few years. I don't consider it a win. I consider it a loss. This is a desperate move by the US. Intel making better chips then TSMC is a win. The government strong arming Taiwan with "protection" from China in order to gain this technology is a display of American incompetence. But then again maybe is't not about fair play. If the US wins by unfair means, it's still a win? A pathetic win but a win none the less.

breerbgoat 2y ago
Someone in the thread mentioned "China's gonna be a bit salty though." I see what salty China looks like now.
- ninetyninenine 2y ago
  I’m an American though. But yes, of course China will be pissed. I suspect China wants this though. Once the US has Taiwan semiconductor technology there’s no need to protect Taiwan and China can move in. Symbolically Taiwan represents more to China than some island that makes great chips. I still think it’s better if intel was able to pull it off, but i don’t think us Americans have the capability.
matrix87 2y ago
There's a common pattern here, it's easier for them to import fresh meat than fix the rotting carcass back home Whether that's fair or not, who really cares, what can we do about it
- ninetyninenine 2y ago
  As an American I care because it’s shameful and rather pathetic. And remember stuffing a rotting carcass with imported fresh meat doesn’t actually fix the rotting carcass. I look at where all the talent is going in the US and it’s all full stack software engineers and gen AI.

mihaaly 2y ago

Wave the flag and have colourful fireworks with hand at the heart and tears in the eyes, this is a glorious moment the children will cheer its glory in glorious essays!

crote 2y ago

> US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated, and we in the US are going to be building our own future both for chips and for energy security. Don't count on it. For every high-end chip you need hundreds of commodity parts to support them, and nobody is investing in US factories to make $0.001 capacitors or $0.10 connectors. You just can't compete with cheap Chinese labor, so the US supply lines will never be able to equal a city like Shenzhen. Unless the US is willing to get rid of capitalism and switch to a plan economy, most of those expensive high-end chips will just be shipped to Asia for assembly. So much for building your own future.

sgu999 2y ago
> most of those expensive high-end chips will just be shipped to Asia for assembly I get the first part of your comment, but why wouldn't all the missing components be imported for assembly in the US? SMT lines in particular don't need that much cheap labour to operate. Even Brits can assemble PCBs!
- crote 2y ago
  Either you ship one component to Asia where it'll be combined with thousands of parts made by factories literally in the same city, or you're shipping all those thousands of parts over the US for assembly. Even with zero labor cost for assembly it's not hard to guess which option is cheaper and easier to manage.
swalsh 2y ago
"You just can't compete with cheap Chinese labor" You sure can, we have cheap Mexican labor... and we have a much healthier trade relationship with Mexico.
mike50 2y ago
Those components are not used in military products. Specialized vendors manufacture passives for the military. AVX, CDE and Vishay are just the first three I recall.
themaninthedark 2y ago

pyrale 2y ago

> This is great news, and we should celebrate. On the other hand, this is a protectionist policy that has been straining US' relations with its allies. That development means the US empire is a little less mutually beneficial, and a little more beneficial to the core. Its success requires these allies not to reciprocate, and this is a long-term prospect that only time will confirm.

norswap 2y ago

Hold your horses — this will only produce a fraction of the chips, and probably at a much higher cost. It's a step in the right direction for the policy goals, but they've really just entered the woods with this one.

swalsh 2y ago
But it also makes us not dependent on a place that China has their literal sights focused on.

Keyframe 2y ago

...transferring knowledge from TSMC to a US workforce. This is a significant win for the US... I get what you're saying and I agree, but there's some heavy irony in saying that considering that's exactly how TSMC started out but from the opposite side; Transferring knowledge from "the west" (RCA from US and Philips) with ITRI it evolved into a project of Taiwanese state which culminated in TSMC.

ActionHank 2y ago

I feel like you are running around high fiving everyone for a job well done and the first chips aren't even off the line yet. This is a huge milestone, but it seems a little premature.

swalsh 2y ago

"US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated" Oh i'm going to be downvoted into oblivion for this one.... but I think this is a win we can give to Trump. It was a hard focus of his, I think he put the right people in place to do it, and I think time is going to prove he was right to do it. I didn't vote for him in 2016, but I think it's important to acknowledge it.

erellsworth 2y ago
This is because of the CHIPS act. Other than Trump's constant whinging about China, he didn't have anything to do with this.
- swalsh 2y ago
  I understand, but I was commenting specifically around the comment "US Manufacturing is reinvigorating" which it is, and which is more general than chips. I think when the Trump admin renegotiated trade policies (and I'll given Biden credit for keeping them) the economic incentives were rebalanced. I think the result is complex/low volume manufacturing is starting to return to the US, and simple high volume manufacturing is moving to Mexico (which we have a very good relationship with... i'll discredit Trump for being so stupidly aggressive with them in the first few months of his administration though)

apercu 2y ago

Yep. We should be investing our tax dollars in our economy and our people.

thisconnect 2y ago

> US manufacturing America is a continent.

ckemere 2y ago

Agree that TSMC is good news. > US manufacturing is about to be reinvigorated I’d suggest you post a small/medium quantity machining RFP on MFG.com with a medium to high complexity. I’ve been quite discouraged that US vs China price differences are 5-10x. (My part was a custom M0.8 screw in quantity ~500.) It seems that without a vibrant base of small businesses, it will be very challenging to truly reinvigorate US manufacturing. And that would require reforming the finance sector/allocation of capital that currently is skewing really heavily towards “scale”.

Workaccount2 2y ago

>and we have top tier production here in the US TSMC's process that they are bringing to the US is 2nd tier. The crown jewels are being kept at home. If Intel can get their act together, then we will have top tier in the US.

zrail 2y ago
That's not really true, afaict. This press release[1] states that Fab 21 (Arizona) phase 1 is 4nm, which is not the best but clearly is enough to manufacture the A16, phase 2 opening in 2026 will be 3nm, and phase 3 will be 2nm or better. I'm not a semiconductor engineer so maybe there's some process nuance that I don't know, but it certainly seems that this is at or near the top of TSMC's process list. [1]: https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2977 https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2977
- talldayo 2y ago
  Those are decently advanced nodes, but if 3nm isn't coming until 2026 then this is absolutely a last-gen fab. For reference, Samsung is considered a "last-gen/trailing gen" fab, and they'll be shipping 2nm in 2026 on their roadmap. Taiwan's TSMC will have a process and sampling edge for the foreseeable future, unless they change the roadmap.

lossolo 2y ago

I think you are overly optimistic, this is an older process, which means that next iphones will need to source their CPUs from TSMC fabs in Asia, not from US. There also will be no knowledge transfer, that was not part of the deal. It's more of a national security political message than a real change. I guess it's better than nothing. I wouldn't call it a significant win, but it’s a step in the right direction. And fabs are not enough: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-03/us-needs-to-innovate-to-stay-ahead-of-china-in-chips https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-03/us-nee... You can't lead in the energy transition or produce chips without the supply chain and critical minerals: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-harnesses-a-technology-that-vexed-the-west-unlocking-a-treasure-chest-5d984585?st=1assyg4kncgr3jz https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-harnesses-a-technology-... https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/29/biden-minerals-price-support-china-00176777 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/29/biden-minerals-pric... https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/13/steelmaker-biden-climate-grant-00179145 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/13/steelmaker-biden-cl... There's still a lot more to do to actually make it work before you can celebrate a win.

AndrewKemendo 2y ago

Why did it take the United States government having to invest in US labor? Why wasn’t the “free market” Capitalism allocating resources to the United States if in fact, it is the best place for this to happen? Or is this just garden variety realpolitik nationalism?

BiteCode_dev 2y ago

This also lowers the Taiwan risk, which was increasingly high after the China chip ban.

eru 2y ago

> After all the wailing and rending of clothes, the industrial policy worked out great and we have top tier production here in the US, transferring knowledge from TSMC to a US workforce. > This is a significant win for the US, and just the beginning of the amazing industrial policy passed over the past few years. I'm not sure these conclusions are justified. It's the 'seen vs unseen'.

TaylorAlexander 2y ago

I actually think the extreme density and breadth of manufacturing in China is going to continue to outpace US manufacturing. They have multiple enormous manufacturing hubs connected by high speed rail lines over a wide geographic area. The US has no equivalent to the likes of Shenzhen and Guangzhou, where you can finish a PCB design in the morning and have the prototype in hand that evening. You can go to the Huaqiangbei Electronics Market and find exactly the right motor and controller for your specs, pick up specialized sensors, and build your next rev overnight. I have lived in the Bay Area my entire adult life. We used to have Halted/HSC, we used to have Weird Stuff. We used to have Triangle Machinery Co in Santa Clara. Now everything is gone. I think it’s great that we built a semiconductor manufacturing plant. That’s important for strategic manufacturing. But we’ve so thoroughly destroyed our manufacturing base, let the factories rot, and financialized property value that the “weird place with random electronics” can no longer even afford to do business. Starbucks makes more money, so in it goes. US politicians love to shout about manufacturing. “Manufacturing jobs jobs economy growth.” But these people DO NOT understand how things get made. They have no serious industrial policy. They do not know the value of a high speed train connecting manufacturing centers. And even if they did, the entire apparatus of our government is set up to stop it. Manufacturing workers need education. They need housing, transit, health care, maternity and sick leave. They need secure jobs and extra income that allows them time off to take classes to learn new skills. I’m glad we passed the inflation reduction act, and the CHIPS act. We need that investment. But it’s going to take much more than that to “bring manufacturing back” and I’ve have seen time and time again that we do not have the vision or capability to move in the ways that would be required. I hope manufacturing comes back. We desperately need it. But I’m quite frustrated that despite some marginal progress, the serious changes we need are not on the horizon nor seemingly beyond it.

mptest 2y ago
Perfect comment, it's important to celebrate but more important to keep in mind it's a tiny piece of the public infrastructure and government inertia we need to do this correctly. We need exactly what you describe, and I want to bolster the mention of education. China produces 2x the stem phds we do every year. Sure, bigger population, but they also have a growing share of citations. (source for both is suleyman's book "the coming wave")

bboygravity 2y ago

It's also terrible/impossible news from a USD perspective if the US produces things nationally in a significant way (importing less, selling less printed USD in exchange for goods). Printing insane amounts of USD to allow for systemic government over-spending and huge untenable government debt doesn't go hand in hand with not importing most goods. You can't keep your currency strong if you can't force others to buy your currency. If you have a lot of production in the US, this is going to cause hyperinflation to come sooner. In the long term it won't matter, the end result is the same, but if production significantly moves back to the US it will be very scary from a currency perspective.

digital-cygnet 2y ago
I don't see the argument here. Importing less leads to selling less USD (yes), somehow leading to devaluation of USD? Is the implication that the dollar is strong because the US government "forces others" (foreign manufacturers) to buy it? Isn't that the opposite of the first thought, which implied that "selling less printed USD" was the reason that domestic manufacturing would be inflationary? I don't understand the causality, and it doesn't match my mental model ("a country that can build things domestically at a competitive price point should be deflationary because now there is more supply of stuff and equal supply of money"), so I think this could do with some expanding.

EasyMark 2y ago

I think it falls back on lots of elites feeling that only “one special group” can do a thing. The pendulum swung too far into the “globalist”agenda and now it’s swinging back. I’m sure it will overshoot and we’ll be back to globalism within a decade, but I for one welcome anchoring more things to the domestic economy; the US is a huge country with lots of resources and lots of untapped potential (despite not being China big) and we could use some of that trickle down economy that the globalists have been hoarding for a while now.