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Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025
- Ologn 2y agoEarnings estimates were bumped up recently by analysts due to buying (a lot of which looks like from FAANGs) and Nvidia beat those estimates, on top of the enormous run-up in revenues and profits it has had in the past year.
- bingguistics 2y ago[dead]
- almog 2y agoGuidance should be out soon and it might change things a bit but so far, the stock barely moves (compared to past earning reports) even with stock split + dividend increase. This looks rather bearish.
- TheAlchemist 2y agoDividend yield is 0.02% - the increase is meaningless anyway. It's quite amazing to me how the stock splits tends to boost the price, or at least it's the perception. What's the underlying mecanism ?
- drexlspivey 2y agoYou can’t buy options on a $1000 stock, the notional amount for each contract would be $100k
- nvy 2y ago>You can’t buy options on a $1000 stock Yes you can.
- drexlspivey 2y agoThanks for your pedantic contribution. I obviously mean you can’t buy them on a small account. You can by a fraction of an NVDA share with $200 but you can’t buy a call option
- cbanek 2y agoI heard they are also announcing a 10 for 1 stock split, which would really help the option cost too due to the share price going to about $100
- choppaface 2y agoCall / put spreads work
- jfrbfbreudh 2y agoYou quite literally can; a $1000 strike call contract on NVDA 2-DTE is <$2000 $1140 strike is <$200 (before markets closed today obviously)
- drexlspivey 2y agoMan.. this forum is something else
- sicromoft 2y agoIt quite literally is not something else
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- _zoltan_ 2y agoaaaand? why should you be able to? get a bigger account if you want to play around with 1k stocks.
- 2y ago
- ptsneves 2y agoYep. It is really hard to trade options even for hedging when the notional is so high. Of course you can do combinations of strategies to lower the upfront but I imagine many brokers might just not give the credit worthiness or permissions for that. Don’t know why your were downvoted. Unless I miss something obvious, as well.
- epolanski 2y agoSomebody think about the casinos!
- throwaway20004 2y agomaybe allows more retail investors to buy? hypothetically fractional shares solves this but i bet in practice, not many folks buy fractional shares.
- TheAlchemist 2y agoThat's about the only 'rational' explanation I can think of - but I suspect that's really small money overall - it's not people who can only afford to buy 50$ that will drive up the price ? Or maybe the actual number is x10 - since we don't want to buy just 1 share, and the real minimum is 10 shares ?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- Detrytus 2y agoRemember this McDonald's billboard saying "Hey Crypto Bros, we're hiring"? :) Many individual investors are people who only have like 100-200 USD per month to invest through Robinhood. Or they do have some 401k plan where they get like $400 monthly.
- almog 2y agoI think it mostly just opens the door to retail investors with a smaller account. The announcement of a stock split by itself create that expectation and drives the price up.
- choppaface 2y agoOptions strategies also become more accessible and the leverage of one-cent differences increases dramatically
- SantiagoQ 2y agoThe underlying mechanism is that supply (of stocks) will decrease. The boost in prize is an anticipation of the result. In poor economic theory, there shouldn't be any change, but if you consider behavioral economics, and regulations that introduct inefficiencies it explains the change in price. It also communicates to investors (through action) the plan, apetite for risk, and investment opportunities (for the company) moving forward.
- jsnell 2y agoThat's not at all how stock splits work. You're probably confusing them with buybacks.
- nvy 2y agoOne of the primary reasons companies split their stock is to keep the price in a more natural trading range where there's likely to be more liquidity. An n-way stock split in theory should reduce the price by a factor of n (that is, a 2:1 split ought to halve the price) but what we're seeing now is likely just price discovery based on the bullish earnings report.
- tverbeure 2y agoNot a comment about the stock price increase due to splits, but very high stock prices are an issue for employee stock purchase plans (ESPP): they can't offer fractional shares and they need to round down. If you set aside 15% of a gross salary of $100k for 6 months, that's $7500. When the stock is at $1000, you get 7 shares. If the stock is $100, you get 75 shares. The lower your income, the more you miss out on ESPP that way. It's not a huge deal if the stock is flat (you only get a 15% discount), but for a fast appreciating stock, those additional 5 shares can be real money.
- epolanski 2y agoMany people around the world can invest only small amounts per month. A 1000$ price makes the entry high. Only some trading platforms allow for buying of fractional shares. The underlying logic is that lower per share price would increase volume and maybe a bit the price.
- matwood 2y agoMakes options more accessible. It also an additional signal of bullishness from the company. Before partial shares and odd lots, it also let less money buy the stock.
- mbesto 2y ago> the stock barely moves even with stock split + dividend increase. This looks rather bearish. Already priced in. Look at comps of PE ratios in tech focused companies and you'll see what I mean.
- jejeyyy77 2y agolol, you realize markets are closed right? this is all low volume after market trading.
- almog 2y agoOf course, all earning reports occurs outside trading hours. In the past though, most of the price action following earnings happened in after hours trading. Again, it might change after conference call but that's just the way it's been in the past quarters at least.
- Bluecobra 2y agoDepending on your broker you are able to trade certain symbols 24 hours a day now: https://www.bankrate.com/investing/24-hour-stock-trading/ https://www.bankrate.com/investing/24-hour-stock-trading/
- gopher_space 2y agoIs it just that they rely on someone else’s fab?
- martinpw 2y agoBit premature to say that. It's now up 7% after hours. And of course tomorrow is what really matters.
- almog 2y agoPremature to say what? It's an observation based on past earning reports that preceded earning calls. Even the peak 7% post earnings call (now 5.7% and probably a different number by the time I hit "reply") is a relatively small move compared to past 4 quarters and that's without even taking the stock split + dividend increase into account. Sure, tomorrow it can get to 15% but all I can compare it with right now is the past price action post earnings.
- acchow 2y agoLast earnings, it popped up 8% during AH trading. But that was after falling 7% during the week leading up to earnings. This time around, the stock has been up slightly over the past week, and now popping 5.5% during AH trading.
- almog 2y agoExactly, which makes it the smallest post earnings price action in the past 4 quarters (last one was also smaller than the 4 that preceded it iirc). And today was the only one that had stock split. It'd have probably been even less than 5.5% if it wasn't for that. Not saying it's not going to beat the market in years to come but it is slowing.
- foota 2y agoNvidia must be the fastest growing in revenue a company has ever been at their revenue, right? If you adjust for inflation I imagine they'd have some competition from the robber barons, but it's hard to imagine.
- groceryheist 2y agoThe topline is that the meteoric growth has already occurred. 18% quarterly revenue growth is good, YoY growth was 15x that.
- foota 2y agoImo this depends on whether the limiting factor is demand or production. If it's production capacity, then if in a year they're able to get TSMC to make them twice as many chips, they could likely increase their growth rate? I'd be sweating if I were any of TSMCs other customers right now and trying to renew my contract. Idk what the ratio is in size between an H100 and an M3, but I doubt it's anywhere near proportional to how much nvidia is willing to offer TSMC.
- groceryheist 2y agoNvidia is doing fine :), but it would be better for them if they were not limited. Hopefully, and probably, you are right and production is limiting.
- MangoCoffee 2y ago>I'd be sweating if I were any of TSMCs other customers right now and trying to renew my contract. How many TSMC's customers need the latest tech?
- foota 2y agoAnyone that wants to keep selling new phones every year?
- madisp 2y ago
- nabla9 2y agoBloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were: 400% earnings growth and 242% revenue growth. The reality was 461% earnings growth (629% GAAP) 262% revenue growth. Nvidia did it again.
- nabla9 2y agoBloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were: 400% earnings growth and 242% revenue growth. The reality was 461% earnings growth (629% GAAP) 262% revenue growth. 78.9% gross margin. Nvidia did it again.
- deadbabe 2y agoHow do they keep doing this
- nabla9 2y agoas long as supply << demand.
- trhway 2y agoin the past - Industrial Revolution - when somebody started producing something profitable others would start similar production too. In our post-Industrial age software provides the moat protecting your hardware margin. The IBM's PC cloning was the perfect illustration when such a moat wasn't utilized. Everybody learned the lesson, pushed for DMCA and the likes and here we're. Speaking about how high is the specific moat here - NVDA had great foresight starting to develop their CUDA almost 20 years ago. I at the time was thinking - the HPC market couldn't be that big to support that investment. Well, when 10 year ago the GPU deep learning arrived with AlexNet the CUDA was ready for that Valkyrie ride we've been seeing since then while all the other players are only starting to wake up at best. That is on supply side. On the demand side - if any projections about AI even in nanobots in your blood come even partially true - we have decades of AI technology growth ahead, and like with other foundational technologies of our civilization - electricity and the internet and the space (guess who is going to mine He3 on the Moon?) - it will be everywhere. NVDA probably like any other company will stagnate and become MBA heaven like say IBM or even rot and perish and/or somebody will come up with completely different technology for AI leaving NVDA in the dust, yet it is hard to see how it can take less than coupe of decades (i.e. hardly can happen until Jensen leaves). (i'm long if any asks :)
- nabla9 2y ago
- legitster 2y agoI know it's never going to happen, but Nvidia really should spin off their consumer division - it's such a complete afterthought at this point. They are sitting on all of this amazing technology but just kind of stringing along the market at this point.
- epolanski 2y agoWhy should they? The underlying technology is the same.
- ftufek 2y agoTheir consumer cards are the entry point for many researchers and students though, so it pays off eventually when they become engineers working with the expensive enterprise cards.
- pciexpgpu 2y agoGreat point - an analogy comes to mind: MSFT (and Adobe) were totally okay with (and even encouraged) students pirating Windows/Photoshop etc in non-Western countries in the hopes they grow up and carry that knowledge in a future legal venture. They were right. This is the hardware equivalent of that. Only until CUDA is replaceable though: and who is gonna do that? Intel better carry through their promises in this regard.
- 01100011 2y agoNah. Besides, I want them to continue to diversify in case there ever is an AI winter. If that happens, at least I'll get an updated Shield TV or something.
- MangoCoffee 2y agoIsn't Nvidia's AI chip is based on their own GPU? Let's say the current AI trend goes away. It's good to have something to fall back on, and why would you cut the consumer side off? It's all based on the same architecture. It's not like it's going to cost or lose them money.
- 0xcde4c3db 2y ago
- AnotherGoodName 2y agoThis stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge. I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone). I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we're posting that "Nvidia is the best shorting opportunity" without any of the knowledge of the market. It looks like it's now going above $1000 and still going up. Invest in things you know intimately folks. Also do the opposite of Reddit.
- amelius 2y agoBut don't put all your eggs in one basket.
- aldarisbm 2y agodo you have an exit strategy?
- AnotherGoodName 2y agoI started selling at the one year mark since capital gains is lower for stocks held longer than one year in the USA. For a complete exit I would need to see a genuine competitor emerge. I have not seen that yet.
- somethoughts 2y agoThe million dollar question (or trillion dollar question I suppose) is for the upcoming quarters - will there be pallets of h100s waiting shipment, 2x pallets of h100s or 10x pallets of h100s... or have all the pallets are shipped for the time being. Has demand saturated while downstream AI engineers tinker on actually profitable use cases or is it going to keep growing exponentially. Probably most stock price models assume at minimum linear growth for the next 5-10 years. But if the future reality is that it nearly plateauing and will likely drop off...
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- allenrb 2y agoWe all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens: 1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it. 2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Intel can churn out hardware optimized for the right few functions and sell for a faction of the price. Nvidia can still be an innovator but they won’t be able to sell “bread and butter” products at these prices. Sales and/or margins crater, as does the stock.
- stocknoob 2y agoYou know, you can make money with predictions if you have the conviction.
- Detrytus 2y agoNot GP, but that's exactly what I'm doing. Sold NVIDIA recently at 869 USD (having bought it at 453 USD), and invested profits in Intel :) We'll see how that plays out in a year or two.
- eaenki 2y agoreally? intel a sideways stock from the 70s is the best long you found in the entire planet? out of all the financial instruments and all the markets and all the categories u actually believe that’s the best pain to gain ratio play
- kaibee 2y agoThey have their own fabs, a new GPU line, and they're national security critical. they also make pretty good CPUs even if they aren't the best value/$.
- HDThoreaun 2y agoIntel literally cant fail because of national security. The government will continuously bail them out which I think is a pretty big advantage, giving them time to figure something out. Theyre cheap as fuck too so tons of upside
- PaulKeeble 2y agoThis likely has more staying power than the crypto boom that fueled AMD's GPUs to enormous heights but when that crashed AMD ended up holding a lot of stock it couldn't shift and had an enormous right down of inventory. This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task or a realisation that the issues with AI just can't be solved and a cooling off of the market hype. What I fear is that Nvidia sees no value in its basic graphics cards any more or wants a lot more for them because they could sell that wafer space to businesses for more $. Its been getting crazy expensive for decent GPUs for a while for gaming and I can't see the next generation doing anything but being much higher due to the AI boom.
- 3abiton 2y ago> This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task True, but currently, no one can match the offering of NVidia, they are the sole pioneer in this market. AMD is yet to show any viable option (both on the HW and SW layers).
- latchkey 2y agoMI300x is a great start. Agreed that the software needs work.
- parineum 2y agoAI is still fueled by hope. The actually applications of it (they do exist and they are valuable) pale in comparison and value to what it's valuation is based on, it's future promise. When the people who say things like "AI is going to replace all accountants!" stop speaking the the future tense, it's value will be justified. For now, it's OpenAI spending billions developing a product they hope will make trillions and Nvidia is happy to sit in the background selling billions of dollars in compute.
- AlexandrB 2y agoIn many cases there's no obvious way to collect additional revenue for AI features either. For example, Google now has an AI box in their search but will this translate to more ad revenue?
- wslh 2y agoI remember a recent HN thread where it was discussed if Nvidia has really an unique edge in AI because there are other approaches (NPUs, TPUs) to generating, and inferring models beyond the power on these GPUs. I think for the general public it sounds like what Nvidia has is unique (like in gaming) where in AI other approaches arised and are arising.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- talldayo 2y ago> I think for the general public it sounds like what Nvidia has is unique (like in gaming) Gaming is where Nvidia is least unique; they run standards-compliant software by supporting well-documented APIs in-hardware (eg. DX12/Vulkan). AMD does the same thing, and even Intel is able to scale up a simple dGPU setup. The hard part is software. Nvidia "won" because they spent 10 years developing CUDA when everyone else was smothering their OpenCL implementations in the crib. Now it doesn't matter what Nvidia ships, as long as it's fast and supports CUDA. The Blackwell/Grace systems seem like a good example of this. TPUs have a slim shot at disrupting things; NPUs are pretty much dead-on-arrival. TPUs are hopeful because they genuinely represent a yak-shaving project that can ignore CUDA semantics to simply infer or train faster. It will be hard to make TPUs as efficient as TSMC-manufactured Nvidia chips, but there's room for disruption given how expensive a single GH200 is. NPUs... I hate to be a pessimist, but they don't have a very bright feature. In the best of scenarios, an NPU is redundant silicon idling or in-usage to alleviate pressure from the more-powerful main GPU and CPU. Seems great on paper; until you start scaling to LLM/Stable Diffusion size. Now you're bottlenecked by such a low-power component, and have to switch to the GPU which was more powerful all-along. In the worst of cases, the NPU is an expensive waste of space on your SOC. Unlike TPU pods, I think there is no hope for NPUs to compete directly with CUDA. If anything it increases the demand for high-performance training compute, which Nvidia monopolizes.
- ein0p 2y agoWhat’s baffling about all this is both AMD and Intel have competing offerings and those offerings see next to no traction in spite of being much more attractive from the cost standpoint. I understand why they aren’t taking off on the training side: fragmentation is very counterproductive there. But why not deploy them in large quantities for inference at least? The effort of porting transformer based models is trivial for both vendors, and the performance is very competitive
- Clubber 2y agoCUDA is their API and is proprietary. It's very fast and it's a significant competitive advantage. https://analyticsindiamag.com/is-cuda-nvidias-competitive-moat https://analyticsindiamag.com/is-cuda-nvidias-competitive-mo...
- ein0p 2y agoIt really doesn’t matter if you have cuda or not if you’re going to run inference at scale. As I said above (speaking from experience), porting models for inference is not a technically difficult problem. Indeed with both Intel Gaudi or AMD MI series of accelerators a lot of the popular architectures and their derivatives are supported either out of the box or with minimal tweaks.
- joe_the_user 2y agoI think the problem the other players have is they don't actually want to compete head-on with Nvidia. AMD actually commissioned a drop-in CUDA emulator and we found out 'cause they stopped financing it and they open-sourced it as parts of the contract. I would speculate that no one actually wants a "clone wars" situation since it would commodify the GPU and reduce everyone's profit rate.
- acchow 2y agoThe companies buying billions of dollars of Nvidia GPUs definitely do want to commodify the GPU
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- declan_roberts 2y agoAs they say, during a gold rush sell shovels. NVIDIA has an excellent shovel. However I do notice that big players (GOOG, Meta, etc), seem more concerned with power cost right now than they do per-unit video cards.
- aurareturn 2y agoOne of the best ways of saving on power is to buy ever more efficient chips. With each generation of chips, perf/watt increases.
- JonChesterfield 2y agoThe earnings call is wild. The pitch is essentially that AI is here right now and if you don't buy loads of Nvidia GPU immediately you'll be destroyed by other companies/countries that did buy it.
- incognition 2y agoArms race is lucrative, even better than gold rush
- peppermint_gum 2y agoThis could have been AMD, but they choose to sabotage themselves with half-baked APIs that don't even support all of their GPUs. Hell, ROCm didn't even support Windows until recently. Frankly, it's shocking how bad they are at it.
- timy2shoes 2y agoEveryone talks about the chips, but Nvidia's true competitive advantage is CUDA. Only recently has PyTorch added AMD support, and benchmarks I've seen have shown that AMD has a lot of work to catch up.
- latchkey 2y ago> Only recently has PyTorch added AMD support April 15th, 2023. It has been more than a year now. https://pytorch.org/blog/experience-power-pytorch-2.0/ https://pytorch.org/blog/experience-power-pytorch-2.0/
- JonChesterfield 2y agoWindows is horrendously annoying to implement anything on and completely absent from the HPC field. Maybe people are trying to do AI training things on it now but that also seems likely to be Linux boxes. Shipping rocm releases that don't run on a bunch of their GPUs is just an absurd choice, there's no way to defend that one.
- Zenst 2y ago2 hours into the post, nobody else noticed it is dated 2025, so what am I missing?
- AnotherGoodName 2y agoWe're literally in fiscal year 2025. The report also calls it fiscal year 2025. Fiscal years are about when you'll pay tax. This is Q1 of four quarters to be reported before Nvidia pays tax in 2025.
- jsnell 2y agoThis is incorrect. Fiscal years have nothing to do with when you pay tax. They're pretty much totally arbitrary, with different companies using different values. To demonstrate: The earnings Microsoft reported for this same quarter (calendar Q1 2024) a month ago were reported as their Q3 2024 fiscal year results. Apple's were fiscal Q2 2024. Google's were fiscal Q1 2024.
- StayTrue 2y ago> A fiscal year is a 12-month period chosen by a company or government to coincide with planning, budgeting, or revenue cycles. > Financial reports, external audits, and federal tax filings are based on a company's fiscal year. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiscalyear.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiscalyear.asp
- jsnell 2y agoYes, your link also explains that there's no single fiscal year, and every company just chooses to define it however they want. And while the fiscal year affects when the company needs to file a tax return, that's not when the company pays taxes which is what the GP claimed. They make estimated payments continuously, once per quarter.
- thiagoperes 2y agoIt's a fiscal year convention. Companies use the following year to reference the fiscal year because the fiscal year is named after the year in which it ends.
- hi-v-rocknroll 2y agoAnd they only have ~18 months of absurd profits from just a couple of customers (Meta and Microsoft/OpenAI) who are likely to realize they don't have the revenue to support 10 figure CapEx and will chose to develop their own chips, cutting NVIDIA out of the loop. I foresee Nvidia stock playing out like a softer version of iomega that will still have consumer demand, but not as much temporary demand from the megacorps. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/day-market-history-iomegas-incredible-152207943.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/day-market-history-iomegas-in...
- theGnuMe 2y agoThe race to build their own chips vs buy nvidia… I imagine they do both. Any nvidia they leave lying around the others will buy and start training models with. Arms race basically and you don’t want your enemy buying the alternative.
- zamadatix 2y agoNvidia, being the 3rd most valued company in the world right now, couldn't get bought by any of its customers until after it's no longer relevant to leading the AI race and has been devalued accordingly.
- sumedh 2y agoIsnt one of the reason to buy all this compute is to attract skilled AI people who want all that compute power, makes it easier to hire them.
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- seatac76 2y agoA 10:1 split, this could run to a $1000 again in a couple years.
- yq2325 2y agoLeader in the next generation!
- shreezus 2y agoHere's the thing - compute/semiconductors will be the substrate for superintelligence. If you believe AGI/ASI is imminent, the demand curve for compute will far exceed supply for the foreseeable future. (Disclaimer: I am heavily biased, as a longtime investor in Nvidia + semiconductors, since 2014+).
- crakenzak 2y ago"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
- n_ary 2y agoI am immensely surprised by all the speculation in comments. NVIDIA simply hit a lucky streak. They rode out the crypto fad from last decade and happens to fall on the AI fad of this decade. If it continues, competitors will eventually catch up as regardless of how slow the behemoths are currently, if something transforms into a stable gold mine instead of random lucky streak, other competitors will start offering cheaper and competitive shovels. Just my 2c, you have the right to disagree :)
- StressedDev 2y agoNVIDIA is the best GPU manufacturer in the world. They have been an excellent company for decades and have produced most of the best (in terms of performance or performance per watt) GPUs. They started spreading out from graphics when they realized GPUs could be used for massively parallel floating-point or integer computations. They have been producing data center GPUs for years. NVIDIA's financial performance is not luck. It came from hard work and from producing the best products.
- oracle65 2y agoAre we already in 2025 ? Same typo on their website. I guess the finance team didn’t use AI :)
- billconan 2y agonot a typo. it's the fiscal year 2025. https://www.xero.com/us/glossary/fiscal-year/ https://www.xero.com/us/glossary/fiscal-year/
- armaautomotive 2y agoWhat year is it? I'm surprised they haven't fixed the title.
- ngcc_hk 2y ago2025? Second 2025 posting recently here. Is HN has Time Traveller these days and someone have successfully hacked a Time Machine ?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]