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I think a while back TSMC finally understood that building a factory in the US is just not feasible, so their backup is to just transition to Japan long term if

I think a while back TSMC finally understood that building a factory in the US is just not feasible, so their backup is to just transition to Japan long term if Taiwan's situation doesn't pan out. During the Pandemic for example, when Japan noticed that their supply chain is too dependent on China, and that during an emergency they too are subject to export controls, even for their own factories, they immediately acted to bring manufacturing of giants such as Iris Ohyama back to Japan. Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute(although the US at least tries to throw money at the problem). TSMC lost the Chinese market, because their government went along headfirst with US trade war policy(similar to what Japan did in 1986, but worse in fact). South Korean officials on the other hand lobbied heavily to get long term exemptions, which allowed them to turn around their profit situation.

boringuser2 3y ago
The thing is, TSMC floundered in America because they had to compensate American workers. American workers aren't cheap. These brutal Asian work cultures can only exist in Asia. Americans and Europeans compete through ingenuity and intellect economically, not through a meat grinder of hard work. It's much different. America's plan to revitalize their industry cannot be contingent on the graces of foreign countries. China is grinding out their own domestic chip manufacturing even though it's far behind the technological sophistication of Taiwan. In the long run, China's strategy is vastly superior. It's a bit embarrassing.
- _kb 3y ago
  By the stats, USA is the brutal one: https://data.oecd.org/chart/7kW3 https://data.oecd.org/chart/7kW3.
  - boringuser2 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - sanxiyn 3y ago
      Highlighted countries in the chart is US and Japan and US is working more hours than Japan. Since TSMC is happy to build factories in Japan, it should be happy to build factories in US, working hours wise.
      - boringuser2 3y ago
        [flagged]
        tonmoy 3y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - altcognito 3y ago
      Make your point without name calling or being insulting.
  - 1000100_1000101 3y ago
    While that does have Japan, the link lacks China and many other countries. Check out this list from Wikipedia[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_annual_labor_hours https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a...
  - Yiin 3y ago
    Could be a case where US workers work those hours officially, but Japan workers work a lot on unpaid overtime in addition to those hours.
  - immawizard 3y ago
    Per source: “ The data are intended for comparisons of trends over time; they are unsuitable for comparisons of the level of average annual hours of work for a given year, because of differences in their sources and method of calculation.” https://data.oecd.org/emp/hours-worked.htm https://data.oecd.org/emp/hours-worked.htm
- newswasboring 3y ago
  From my experience working at TSMC, although the number of work hours are higher it definitely is not brain dead the way you are sketching out to be. They are solving really hard problems with really short deadlines. I also don't see how a factory can work any other way. Every second the machine is down you lose millions, literally.
  - trealira 3y ago
    There have been former workers who claimed that there were unsafe working conditions there, and that they were called lazy by higher-ups: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/28/phoenix-microchip-plant-biden-union-tsmc https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/28/phoenix-mic...
    - newswasboring 3y ago
      I don't see how this connects to what I said.
jacobsimon 3y ago
My understanding is that the US factory is underway and going to start producing chips next year and that they have plans to construct a second factory already. I’ve been seeing this negative narrative a lot around the US factory, but I’m curious if there’s any evidence that they’ve actually stopped progress. I feel like that would be a huge political loss for Biden and the CHIPS act at this point.
- sanxiyn 3y ago
  TSMC fab construction site in the US is a popular target for drone video and such videos are regularly uploaded to YouTube. I watch them, and there is no evidence of stopping. My understanding is that TSMC is happy with construction, and their main worry is CHIPS act. No CHIPS act fund is actually distributed to advanced fabs yet because US government has so many conditions.
- kredd 3y ago
  It’s going AFAIK, but had a bunch of mishaps and talent/labour shortage, so it’s going slower. I’m curious how big its output is going to be, compared to the one that’s supposed to start producing chips in 2024 in Japan. Just a bit disheartening timeline wise. It took Japanese ~3 years (2021-2024) from the announcement to production, versus ~5+ (2020-2025 TBD) for North American factory. I hope we figure out the logistics and have it easier for the second factory though!
- KerrAvon 3y ago
  There would be an easy fix: pressure Tim Cook to increase the US-manufactured content of iPhones. Trump actually did a version of this with some success; it was the version of the Mac Pro nobody wanted, because Trump has the reverse Midas touch, but previous presidents could have done more here.
KingOfCoders 3y ago
Have the Intel plans concerning Germany changed? https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-germany.html https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibi... "This is the first phase of Intel’s plans to invest as much as 80 billion euros in the European Union over the next decade along the entire semiconductor value chain—from R&D to manufacturing and advanced packaging." Germany earmarked $22B for chipmakers support. Though experts think the EU needs $500B. https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/eu-chip-goal-totally-unrealistic-2024-01/ https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/eu-chip-goal...
gpapilion 3y ago
| TSMC lost the Chinese market, because their government went along headfirst with US trade war policy(similar to what Japan did in 1986, but worse in fact). Taiwan is definitely caught between a rock and a hard place. They watched what happened in Hong Kong and no longer is interested in rejoining Xi’s China. So now they are threatened with invasion unless they rejoin China. They are reliant on the US to prevent that’s from happening. So given the choices, it’s not surprising that they are choosing the US to continue existing. It’s crazy to me that you haven’t see more divestments in China from Taiwanese companies.
- sanxiyn 3y ago
  China and Taiwan use the same language so China is still very attractive for oversea expansion for Taiwanese companies.
  - baq 3y ago
    Ukraine and Russia also mostly speak the same language. Doesn’t mean much if the great leader decides to make a move, actually it is another reason to make a move.
    - Waterluvian 3y ago
      About 1/3 of Ukrainians know Russian.
      - voxic11 3y ago
        Ukrainian and Russian are mutually intelligible languages. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_intelligibility#Slavic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_intelligibility#Slavic Whereas different dialects of Mandarin may not be mutually intelligible > Many varieties of Mandarin, such as those of the Southwest (including Sichuanese) and the Lower Yangtze, are not mutually intelligible with the standard language https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandarin_Chinese https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandarin_Chinese
jahnu 3y ago
There is actually a ton of reshoring going on in the EU. They are just relatively quiet about it. Here’s a database that only goes up to 2018 https://reshoring.eurofound.europa.eu/reshoring-cases https://reshoring.eurofound.europa.eu/reshoring-cases
- TheCapeGreek 3y ago
  I wonder if this is relating now to remote work as well? Been seeing a lot more "Remote only in EU/UK" type roles, and when I ask they're explicitly not catering to other timezone-aligned regions.
  - jahnu 3y ago
    Good question but I don’t know to be honest.
  - krab 3y ago
    I was hiring that way in the previous company I worked for. Before we decided that, we had a few good candidates from UA and several African countries because initially we thought we'd limit only by the time zones. In the end, we decided for EU/UK because of law compatibility, ease of enforcement (in case we would have to deal with some serious problems) and ease of gathering together from time to time.
paulsutter 3y ago
Every major country is trying to build new fabs as fast as they can. ASML (maker of the highest resolution lithography machines) has a 400% increase in orders for their equiopment. This isn't a decision of "Japan instead of US", the US is building as many fabs as they can, so is Japan, so is Europe
- newsclues 3y ago
  Seems like everyone is chasing the high end fans, but what about basic components and PCBs? The supply chain is more than latest node chips!
  - amelius 3y ago
    Have you noticed a shortage of low-end components?
    - Qwertious 3y ago
      Raspberry pis were chronically in short supply for the last 3 years and were scalped to $80-100, to the point where x86 microPCs were cheaper.
      - christina97 3y ago
        That has nothing to do with the broader ecosystem and has all to do with RPi’s weird relationship with Broadcom.
        TaylorAlexander 3y ago
        Do you have a source? I’ve seen a lot of unsubstantiated rumors about the source of the raspberry pi shortage.
      - LoganDark 3y ago
        Wasn't that just because everyone wanted the RPis themselves, not because of shortages of their components?
qxfys 3y ago
> building a factory in the US is just not feasible Please educate me. why?
- MichaelTheGeek 3y ago
  I wonder what he's thinking when he said that.
- poochipie 3y ago
  Not OP, but: TSMC has tried before. The workforce is not educated properly and the workplace cultures are vastly different. In this case, the US workers were used to stronger labor protections than their Taiwanese counterparts.
  - edgyquant 3y ago
    The US has multiple fabs and has multiple more being built right now. This is just the propaganda of the elite class who sold off our industrial base and you’re repeating it verbatim
    - zeroCalories 3y ago
      Every year it becomes harder to justify hiring a Westerner from a business perspective. America in 50 years will look like Argentina, full of mediocre workers that demand empire era wages. If we wanna change that, we need to work on developing global monopolies and crushing our enemies. Won't happen though, we'll just wither away wondering why our economy is wasting away.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - edgyquant 3y ago
        I’ll take this bet and see you in 50 years. The US has surged ahead of the rest of the world in recent years and it’s only just starting to put itself first again.
Giorgi 3y ago
Well EU is busy getting out of having their supply routs and clientele being depended on Russia, can't really exit two failing tyrannic dictatorships at the same time - can you? Communist China is still in recession and as manufacturing keeps exiting to India and other places, Chinese market won't be that attractive anytime soon. No wonder real Chinese (Taiwanese) companies want backup plants elsewhere and are not interested into selling-off to failing dystopian dictatorships.
- berserk1010 3y ago
  Correct, Europe would be wise to detach from China faster Exports to the EU fell 11% from a year earlier to $38.3 billion in November compared https://apnews.com/article/china-exports-imports-decline-economy-7eabaf75c502f943afdd122e121b26dc https://apnews.com/article/china-exports-imports-decline-eco... China's newly appointed defense chief and Shoigu discussed boosting military cooperation and coordination as the Russia-Ukraine war drags onhttps://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-ukraine-war-dong-jun-conflict-shoigu-1866797 https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-ukraine-war-dong-jun-c...
randomcarbloke 3y ago
They didn't lose it, they volunteered it, supporting not only the embargo but the spirit of the embargo...rightfully. Opening a factory in the USA means jeopardizing the safety of Taiwan to some extent, they were all for it, and as far as I know as of late last year was reading to begin staffing and production, however the US administration backed off their enthusiasm and support leaving the factory stranded, an absolute fucking catastrophe.
- Rapzid 3y ago
  > Opening a factory in the USA means jeopardizing the safety of Taiwan to some extent It doesn't which is why they are all for it. Diversifying TSMCs production base geographically weakens China's hand.
  - kavalg 3y ago
    but also weakens Taiwan's value from US' perspective.
Mistletoe 3y ago
I’m out of the loop, why was building a factory in the US not feasible?
- georgeburdell 3y ago
  U.S. doesn’t work 996, TSMC tried to import all of the senior staff from Taiwan leading to cultural mismatch and resentment
  - Mistletoe 3y ago
    >The 996 working hour system (Chinese: 996工作制) is a work schedule practiced by some companies in China. It derives its name from its requirement that employees work from 9:00 am to 9:00 pm, 6 days per week; i.e. 72 hours per week, 12 hours per day. A number of Mainland Chinese internet companies have adopted this system as their official work schedule. Critics argue that the 996 working hour system is a violation of Chinese Labour Law and have called it "modern slavery". Oh good Lord. I wonder if anyone has insight into how this is actually done. Are people really working the 72 hours or is it like here, people goofing off most of the day and hurrying up to get done when they need to? These posts seem to imply the latter? https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/boq5qe/what_the_996_working_conditions_like/ https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/boq5qe/what_the_996_...
omgJustTest 3y ago
"Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute(although the US at least tries to throw money at the problem)." What other things should governments do other than "throw money at the problem"... crazy profitable ventures should have some help but they aren't giving those grants back etc. I'd say total compensation packages in orgs are the root of why things might work in Japan and not in the US. The pay structure in Japan is very rigid, and by just one metric, top executive pay [1], Japan is 3.4x more efficient. While a highly-paid CEO may not break the company, the skew in pay upward across an org will. [1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/26592017#:~:text=After%20controlling%20for%20firm%20characteristics,higher%20than%20the%20Japanese%20level https://www.jstor.org/stable/26592017#:~:text=After%20contro....
Vt71fcAqt7 3y ago
>they immediately acted to bring manufacturing of giants such as Iris Ohyama back to Japan. Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute I'm not sure what you mean by this because the US already has Intel 4 while Japan currently has zero advanced fabs. Is this just another Japan good comment or do you have a specific point in mind?
berserk1010 3y ago
Lots of wrong things with the comments > Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute(although the US at least tries to throw money at the problem). "Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. " https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/98200-a-look-back-at-2023-the-reshoring-year-in-review https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/98200-a-look-back-at-20... China's annual exports drop for first time in seven years. Among key trading partners, exports to the U.S. led the decline, down 13% from the previous year https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/China-s-annual-exports-drop-for-first-time-in-seven-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/China-s-annual-exports... > TSMC lost the Chinese market...South Korean officials on the other hand lobbied heavily to get long term exemptions, which allowed them to turn around their profit situation. Samsung profit tumbles 35% as chip weakness persists. https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3248969/china-remains-tough-market-stage-comeback-worlds-former-top-smartphone-vendor-samsung https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3248969/china-rem... Over 50% of Korean firms missing earnings target in China this year: survey https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230830000611 https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230830000611
- thfuran 3y ago
  >Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. 'Some' is doing a lot of work. What does that really mean? If 99% of manufacturers each onshore 0.01% of their manufacturing, all that has really happened is that everyone can probably now label things "made in america".
  - berserk1010 3y ago
    here are some numbers U.S. manufacturing construction spending reached a 20-year high, hitting a $194 billion annual rate in April 2023, nearly double the $107 billion annual rate from a year ago. https://thinkkc.com/news/blog/kc-smartport-blog/2023/08/01/investment-in-u.s.-manufacturing-on-the-rise https://thinkkc.com/news/blog/kc-smartport-blog/2023/08/01/i... In 2021, Intel announced more than $43.5 billion in new manufacturing investments across Arizona, New Mexico and Ohio to bolster U.S. chipmaking and R&D leadership. https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1638/opinion-intel-is-poised-to-unleash-americas-innovation https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1638/... Walmart previously announced a $350 billion investment to make U.S. manufacturing more “affordable and feasible,” https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/october/reshoring-and-restoring-u.s.-manufacturing/ https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/october/resho...
corethree 3y ago
>I think a while back TSMC finally understood that building a factory in the US is just not feasible TSMC always understood this. This wasn't a realization as the cost benefit analysis is obvious: US workers don't have the skill involved and they demand higher pay. The combination of the two makes the US plant a net loss. TSMC did what they did because of political pressure. So the plan was always for the US plant to just satisfy that political pressure as much as possible. There was never a plan for the US plant to do anything profitable, it's more of a forced "technology transfer".
- adventured 3y ago
  It's nothing like a forced technology transfer at all. The US isn't acquiring TSMC tech in any manner what-so-ever. It could hack TSMC - as China does the US - if that's what it wanted. The US is adding such domestic manufacturing for strategic national security reasons: namely, a modern tech-heavy economy can't function without the chips that power it. And yes, of course it pressured TSMC to contribute to that.
  - corethree 3y ago
    It's technology transfer. And it won't be obtained all through legal means. Hacking isn't enough the amount of skill involved can't be gleaned from a computer file. You need US based employees who can be poached who are doing espionage and all that. This is entirely what it's for. CIA and other defense agencies do this worse stuff. What I'm saying isn't out of the blue. And it's also quite obvious. There's really no real difference between manufacturing here or abroad so that is the only reason why they bring it here.
- pjc50 3y ago
  Most of the IP that TSMC make comes from US-based companies anyway. There's no "technology transfer".
  - corethree 3y ago
    You're describing technology transfer from the US to Taiwan. Which is absolutely true and happened. But the literal fact that the US can't build what Taiwan builds shows it's currently a literal transfer in the Other direction. What I don't understand, is how thr initial US transfer to Taiwan negates the technology transfer I'm describing here? It doesn't. I think you lack objectivity. Your American pride is getting in the way. Same with the downvoters I guess. My comment has nothing to do with whether or not Taiwan or the US deserves or does not deserve to be a participant or victim in this "technology transfer" it's just a statement about reality.
zitterbewegung 3y ago
Having a facility that’s not on the ring of fire and avoiding any earthquakes or similar natural disasters are also big benefits. Apple also invested with TSMC by buying out all 3nm production.
UncleOxidant 3y ago
> a while back TSMC finally understood that building a factory in the US is just not feasible Why would that be? There are plenty of fabs in the US.
- charlieyu1 3y ago
  They probably won’t work for $30-40k per year and think it is a lot of money
hcarvalhoalves 3y ago
Well, that’s certainly a narrative. But a more likely reason is Japan has excellent infrastructure and the Yen is at a record low (and falling).
throwaway2037 3y ago
> manufacturing giants such as Iris Ohyama ??? Giant? No. They have less than 3,000 employees and make mostly cheap plastic home goods. They have annual revenue (not profits) of less than 1B USD.
seanmcdirmid 3y ago
> TSMC lost the Chinese market, because their government went along headfirst with US trade war policy Does TSMC really have a choice given their dependency on IS and Western European suppliers to make chips at all? The plan for Taiwan being taken over is to simply stop supplying Taiwan fabs, they aren’t self sufficient (or Korean or Japanese etc…).
EasyMark 3y ago
I don't think that's right. TSMC will not change their corporate style and management style to what American engineers are used to. We won't work for less wages than competitors while also working 25-30% more. There is absolutely no reason they can't build fabs in the USA, sure it's not as easy as in Taiwan, but that because they are brittle about how to get it done. There's also the rather positive fact that the USA isn't out to end their civilization and way of life.
ksec 3y ago
>they immediately acted to bring manufacturing of giants such as Iris Ohyama back to Japan. Finally people on HN are talking about this. Along with a lot of Supply Chain / raw material shifting as well post 2020. So it wasn't just manufacturing. >Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute Contrast to Apple, Which keeps feeding PR and Media about they are moving out of China but dont actually execute ( until very very recently in 2023 ).

boringuser2 3y ago

The thing is, TSMC floundered in America because they had to compensate American workers. American workers aren't cheap. These brutal Asian work cultures can only exist in Asia. Americans and Europeans compete through ingenuity and intellect economically, not through a meat grinder of hard work. It's much different. America's plan to revitalize their industry cannot be contingent on the graces of foreign countries. China is grinding out their own domestic chip manufacturing even though it's far behind the technological sophistication of Taiwan. In the long run, China's strategy is vastly superior. It's a bit embarrassing.

_kb 3y ago
By the stats, USA is the brutal one: https://data.oecd.org/chart/7kW3 https://data.oecd.org/chart/7kW3.
- boringuser2 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - sanxiyn 3y ago
    Highlighted countries in the chart is US and Japan and US is working more hours than Japan. Since TSMC is happy to build factories in Japan, it should be happy to build factories in US, working hours wise.
    - boringuser2 3y ago
      [flagged]
      - tonmoy 3y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - altcognito 3y ago
    Make your point without name calling or being insulting.
- 1000100_1000101 3y ago
  While that does have Japan, the link lacks China and many other countries. Check out this list from Wikipedia[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_annual_labor_hours https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a...
- Yiin 3y ago
  Could be a case where US workers work those hours officially, but Japan workers work a lot on unpaid overtime in addition to those hours.
- immawizard 3y ago
  Per source: “ The data are intended for comparisons of trends over time; they are unsuitable for comparisons of the level of average annual hours of work for a given year, because of differences in their sources and method of calculation.” https://data.oecd.org/emp/hours-worked.htm https://data.oecd.org/emp/hours-worked.htm
newswasboring 3y ago
From my experience working at TSMC, although the number of work hours are higher it definitely is not brain dead the way you are sketching out to be. They are solving really hard problems with really short deadlines. I also don't see how a factory can work any other way. Every second the machine is down you lose millions, literally.
- trealira 3y ago
  There have been former workers who claimed that there were unsafe working conditions there, and that they were called lazy by higher-ups: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/28/phoenix-microchip-plant-biden-union-tsmc https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/28/phoenix-mic...
  - newswasboring 3y ago
    I don't see how this connects to what I said.

jacobsimon 3y ago

My understanding is that the US factory is underway and going to start producing chips next year and that they have plans to construct a second factory already. I’ve been seeing this negative narrative a lot around the US factory, but I’m curious if there’s any evidence that they’ve actually stopped progress. I feel like that would be a huge political loss for Biden and the CHIPS act at this point.

sanxiyn 3y ago
TSMC fab construction site in the US is a popular target for drone video and such videos are regularly uploaded to YouTube. I watch them, and there is no evidence of stopping. My understanding is that TSMC is happy with construction, and their main worry is CHIPS act. No CHIPS act fund is actually distributed to advanced fabs yet because US government has so many conditions.
kredd 3y ago
It’s going AFAIK, but had a bunch of mishaps and talent/labour shortage, so it’s going slower. I’m curious how big its output is going to be, compared to the one that’s supposed to start producing chips in 2024 in Japan. Just a bit disheartening timeline wise. It took Japanese ~3 years (2021-2024) from the announcement to production, versus ~5+ (2020-2025 TBD) for North American factory. I hope we figure out the logistics and have it easier for the second factory though!
KerrAvon 3y ago
There would be an easy fix: pressure Tim Cook to increase the US-manufactured content of iPhones. Trump actually did a version of this with some success; it was the version of the Mac Pro nobody wanted, because Trump has the reverse Midas touch, but previous presidents could have done more here.

KingOfCoders 3y ago

Have the Intel plans concerning Germany changed? https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-germany.html https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibi... "This is the first phase of Intel’s plans to invest as much as 80 billion euros in the European Union over the next decade along the entire semiconductor value chain—from R&D to manufacturing and advanced packaging." Germany earmarked $22B for chipmakers support. Though experts think the EU needs $500B. https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/eu-chip-goal-totally-unrealistic-2024-01/ https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/eu-chip-goal...

gpapilion 3y ago

| TSMC lost the Chinese market, because their government went along headfirst with US trade war policy(similar to what Japan did in 1986, but worse in fact). Taiwan is definitely caught between a rock and a hard place. They watched what happened in Hong Kong and no longer is interested in rejoining Xi’s China. So now they are threatened with invasion unless they rejoin China. They are reliant on the US to prevent that’s from happening. So given the choices, it’s not surprising that they are choosing the US to continue existing. It’s crazy to me that you haven’t see more divestments in China from Taiwanese companies.

sanxiyn 3y ago
China and Taiwan use the same language so China is still very attractive for oversea expansion for Taiwanese companies.
- baq 3y ago
  Ukraine and Russia also mostly speak the same language. Doesn’t mean much if the great leader decides to make a move, actually it is another reason to make a move.
  - Waterluvian 3y ago
    About 1/3 of Ukrainians know Russian.
    - voxic11 3y ago
      Ukrainian and Russian are mutually intelligible languages. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_intelligibility#Slavic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_intelligibility#Slavic Whereas different dialects of Mandarin may not be mutually intelligible > Many varieties of Mandarin, such as those of the Southwest (including Sichuanese) and the Lower Yangtze, are not mutually intelligible with the standard language https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandarin_Chinese https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandarin_Chinese

jahnu 3y ago

There is actually a ton of reshoring going on in the EU. They are just relatively quiet about it. Here’s a database that only goes up to 2018 https://reshoring.eurofound.europa.eu/reshoring-cases https://reshoring.eurofound.europa.eu/reshoring-cases

TheCapeGreek 3y ago
I wonder if this is relating now to remote work as well? Been seeing a lot more "Remote only in EU/UK" type roles, and when I ask they're explicitly not catering to other timezone-aligned regions.
- jahnu 3y ago
  Good question but I don’t know to be honest.
- krab 3y ago
  I was hiring that way in the previous company I worked for. Before we decided that, we had a few good candidates from UA and several African countries because initially we thought we'd limit only by the time zones. In the end, we decided for EU/UK because of law compatibility, ease of enforcement (in case we would have to deal with some serious problems) and ease of gathering together from time to time.

paulsutter 3y ago

Every major country is trying to build new fabs as fast as they can. ASML (maker of the highest resolution lithography machines) has a 400% increase in orders for their equiopment. This isn't a decision of "Japan instead of US", the US is building as many fabs as they can, so is Japan, so is Europe

newsclues 3y ago
Seems like everyone is chasing the high end fans, but what about basic components and PCBs? The supply chain is more than latest node chips!
- amelius 3y ago
  Have you noticed a shortage of low-end components?
  - Qwertious 3y ago
    Raspberry pis were chronically in short supply for the last 3 years and were scalped to $80-100, to the point where x86 microPCs were cheaper.
    - christina97 3y ago
      That has nothing to do with the broader ecosystem and has all to do with RPi’s weird relationship with Broadcom.
      - TaylorAlexander 3y ago
        Do you have a source? I’ve seen a lot of unsubstantiated rumors about the source of the raspberry pi shortage.
    - LoganDark 3y ago
      Wasn't that just because everyone wanted the RPis themselves, not because of shortages of their components?

qxfys 3y ago

> building a factory in the US is just not feasible Please educate me. why?

MichaelTheGeek 3y ago
I wonder what he's thinking when he said that.
poochipie 3y ago
Not OP, but: TSMC has tried before. The workforce is not educated properly and the workplace cultures are vastly different. In this case, the US workers were used to stronger labor protections than their Taiwanese counterparts.
- edgyquant 3y ago
  The US has multiple fabs and has multiple more being built right now. This is just the propaganda of the elite class who sold off our industrial base and you’re repeating it verbatim
  - zeroCalories 3y ago
    Every year it becomes harder to justify hiring a Westerner from a business perspective. America in 50 years will look like Argentina, full of mediocre workers that demand empire era wages. If we wanna change that, we need to work on developing global monopolies and crushing our enemies. Won't happen though, we'll just wither away wondering why our economy is wasting away.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - edgyquant 3y ago
      I’ll take this bet and see you in 50 years. The US has surged ahead of the rest of the world in recent years and it’s only just starting to put itself first again.

Giorgi 3y ago

Well EU is busy getting out of having their supply routs and clientele being depended on Russia, can't really exit two failing tyrannic dictatorships at the same time - can you? Communist China is still in recession and as manufacturing keeps exiting to India and other places, Chinese market won't be that attractive anytime soon. No wonder real Chinese (Taiwanese) companies want backup plants elsewhere and are not interested into selling-off to failing dystopian dictatorships.

berserk1010 3y ago
Correct, Europe would be wise to detach from China faster Exports to the EU fell 11% from a year earlier to $38.3 billion in November compared https://apnews.com/article/china-exports-imports-decline-economy-7eabaf75c502f943afdd122e121b26dc https://apnews.com/article/china-exports-imports-decline-eco... China's newly appointed defense chief and Shoigu discussed boosting military cooperation and coordination as the Russia-Ukraine war drags onhttps://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-ukraine-war-dong-jun-conflict-shoigu-1866797 https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-ukraine-war-dong-jun-c...

randomcarbloke 3y ago

They didn't lose it, they volunteered it, supporting not only the embargo but the spirit of the embargo...rightfully. Opening a factory in the USA means jeopardizing the safety of Taiwan to some extent, they were all for it, and as far as I know as of late last year was reading to begin staffing and production, however the US administration backed off their enthusiasm and support leaving the factory stranded, an absolute fucking catastrophe.

Rapzid 3y ago
> Opening a factory in the USA means jeopardizing the safety of Taiwan to some extent It doesn't which is why they are all for it. Diversifying TSMCs production base geographically weakens China's hand.
- kavalg 3y ago
  but also weakens Taiwan's value from US' perspective.

Mistletoe 3y ago

I’m out of the loop, why was building a factory in the US not feasible?

georgeburdell 3y ago
U.S. doesn’t work 996, TSMC tried to import all of the senior staff from Taiwan leading to cultural mismatch and resentment
- Mistletoe 3y ago
  >The 996 working hour system (Chinese: 996工作制) is a work schedule practiced by some companies in China. It derives its name from its requirement that employees work from 9:00 am to 9:00 pm, 6 days per week; i.e. 72 hours per week, 12 hours per day. A number of Mainland Chinese internet companies have adopted this system as their official work schedule. Critics argue that the 996 working hour system is a violation of Chinese Labour Law and have called it "modern slavery". Oh good Lord. I wonder if anyone has insight into how this is actually done. Are people really working the 72 hours or is it like here, people goofing off most of the day and hurrying up to get done when they need to? These posts seem to imply the latter? https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/boq5qe/what_the_996_working_conditions_like/ https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/boq5qe/what_the_996_...

omgJustTest 3y ago

"Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute(although the US at least tries to throw money at the problem)." What other things should governments do other than "throw money at the problem"... crazy profitable ventures should have some help but they aren't giving those grants back etc. I'd say total compensation packages in orgs are the root of why things might work in Japan and not in the US. The pay structure in Japan is very rigid, and by just one metric, top executive pay [1], Japan is 3.4x more efficient. While a highly-paid CEO may not break the company, the skew in pay upward across an org will. [1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/26592017#:~:text=After%20controlling%20for%20firm%20characteristics,higher%20than%20the%20Japanese%20level https://www.jstor.org/stable/26592017#:~:text=After%20contro....

Vt71fcAqt7 3y ago

>they immediately acted to bring manufacturing of giants such as Iris Ohyama back to Japan. Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute I'm not sure what you mean by this because the US already has Intel 4 while Japan currently has zero advanced fabs. Is this just another Japan good comment or do you have a specific point in mind?

berserk1010 3y ago

Lots of wrong things with the comments > Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute(although the US at least tries to throw money at the problem). "Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. " https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/98200-a-look-back-at-2023-the-reshoring-year-in-review https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/98200-a-look-back-at-20... China's annual exports drop for first time in seven years. Among key trading partners, exports to the U.S. led the decline, down 13% from the previous year https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/China-s-annual-exports-drop-for-first-time-in-seven-years https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/China-s-annual-exports... > TSMC lost the Chinese market...South Korean officials on the other hand lobbied heavily to get long term exemptions, which allowed them to turn around their profit situation. Samsung profit tumbles 35% as chip weakness persists. https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3248969/china-remains-tough-market-stage-comeback-worlds-former-top-smartphone-vendor-samsung https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3248969/china-rem... Over 50% of Korean firms missing earnings target in China this year: survey https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230830000611 https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20230830000611

thfuran 3y ago
>Our analysis of multiple surveys indicates that as much as 91 percent of U.S. manufacturers have reshored some production in 2022, up from just 7 percent 2012. 'Some' is doing a lot of work. What does that really mean? If 99% of manufacturers each onshore 0.01% of their manufacturing, all that has really happened is that everyone can probably now label things "made in america".
- berserk1010 3y ago
  here are some numbers U.S. manufacturing construction spending reached a 20-year high, hitting a $194 billion annual rate in April 2023, nearly double the $107 billion annual rate from a year ago. https://thinkkc.com/news/blog/kc-smartport-blog/2023/08/01/investment-in-u.s.-manufacturing-on-the-rise https://thinkkc.com/news/blog/kc-smartport-blog/2023/08/01/i... In 2021, Intel announced more than $43.5 billion in new manufacturing investments across Arizona, New Mexico and Ohio to bolster U.S. chipmaking and R&D leadership. https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1638/opinion-intel-is-poised-to-unleash-americas-innovation https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1638/... Walmart previously announced a $350 billion investment to make U.S. manufacturing more “affordable and feasible,” https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/october/reshoring-and-restoring-u.s.-manufacturing/ https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/october/resho...

corethree 3y ago

>I think a while back TSMC finally understood that building a factory in the US is just not feasible TSMC always understood this. This wasn't a realization as the cost benefit analysis is obvious: US workers don't have the skill involved and they demand higher pay. The combination of the two makes the US plant a net loss. TSMC did what they did because of political pressure. So the plan was always for the US plant to just satisfy that political pressure as much as possible. There was never a plan for the US plant to do anything profitable, it's more of a forced "technology transfer".

adventured 3y ago
It's nothing like a forced technology transfer at all. The US isn't acquiring TSMC tech in any manner what-so-ever. It could hack TSMC - as China does the US - if that's what it wanted. The US is adding such domestic manufacturing for strategic national security reasons: namely, a modern tech-heavy economy can't function without the chips that power it. And yes, of course it pressured TSMC to contribute to that.
- corethree 3y ago
  It's technology transfer. And it won't be obtained all through legal means. Hacking isn't enough the amount of skill involved can't be gleaned from a computer file. You need US based employees who can be poached who are doing espionage and all that. This is entirely what it's for. CIA and other defense agencies do this worse stuff. What I'm saying isn't out of the blue. And it's also quite obvious. There's really no real difference between manufacturing here or abroad so that is the only reason why they bring it here.
pjc50 3y ago
Most of the IP that TSMC make comes from US-based companies anyway. There's no "technology transfer".
- corethree 3y ago
  You're describing technology transfer from the US to Taiwan. Which is absolutely true and happened. But the literal fact that the US can't build what Taiwan builds shows it's currently a literal transfer in the Other direction. What I don't understand, is how thr initial US transfer to Taiwan negates the technology transfer I'm describing here? It doesn't. I think you lack objectivity. Your American pride is getting in the way. Same with the downvoters I guess. My comment has nothing to do with whether or not Taiwan or the US deserves or does not deserve to be a participant or victim in this "technology transfer" it's just a statement about reality.

zitterbewegung 3y ago

Having a facility that’s not on the ring of fire and avoiding any earthquakes or similar natural disasters are also big benefits. Apple also invested with TSMC by buying out all 3nm production.

UncleOxidant 3y ago

> a while back TSMC finally understood that building a factory in the US is just not feasible Why would that be? There are plenty of fabs in the US.

charlieyu1 3y ago
They probably won’t work for $30-40k per year and think it is a lot of money

hcarvalhoalves 3y ago

Well, that’s certainly a narrative. But a more likely reason is Japan has excellent infrastructure and the Yen is at a record low (and falling).

throwaway2037 3y ago

> manufacturing giants such as Iris Ohyama ??? Giant? No. They have less than 3,000 employees and make mostly cheap plastic home goods. They have annual revenue (not profits) of less than 1B USD.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

> TSMC lost the Chinese market, because their government went along headfirst with US trade war policy Does TSMC really have a choice given their dependency on IS and Western European suppliers to make chips at all? The plan for Taiwan being taken over is to simply stop supplying Taiwan fabs, they aren’t self sufficient (or Korean or Japanese etc…).

EasyMark 3y ago

I don't think that's right. TSMC will not change their corporate style and management style to what American engineers are used to. We won't work for less wages than competitors while also working 25-30% more. There is absolutely no reason they can't build fabs in the USA, sure it's not as easy as in Taiwan, but that because they are brittle about how to get it done. There's also the rather positive fact that the USA isn't out to end their civilization and way of life.

ksec 3y ago

>they immediately acted to bring manufacturing of giants such as Iris Ohyama back to Japan. Finally people on HN are talking about this. Along with a lot of Supply Chain / raw material shifting as well post 2020. So it wasn't just manufacturing. >Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute Contrast to Apple, Which keeps feeding PR and Media about they are moving out of China but dont actually execute ( until very very recently in 2023 ).