berserk1010

6 ms·

1.
by berserk1010 3y ago
> they have a more nimble economy that can turn around quicker That's not evident in the persistent high youth unemployment rate. There is also something called middle income trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
2.
by berserk1010 3y ago
Most Chinese factories in 2023, due to way less orders and needing to clear out their over inventory, had to cut their margins dramatically. thus, more shipped out, but making way less. They won't be able to do that in 2024, with fact
3.
by berserk1010 3y ago
Also, the Chinese army in general is probably non-functional. Too much corruption, case in point: Corrupt Chinese Officials Filled Missiles With Water, Report Says https://www.newsweek.com/china-missiles-rocket-fuel-corrupt
4.
by berserk1010 3y ago
A decrease of prior investment level is divestment, just not happening all at once. If you want to see that kind of activity: Foreign investors have snatched back nearly 90% (!!!) of the money they put into Chinese stocks this year (2023)
5.
by berserk1010 3y ago
OP never followed up his many claims with responses nor numbers, and had many wrong things that were disproven. I wouldn't bother.
6.
by berserk1010 3y ago
China is in no shape to invade, being in a great depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-... , up to its eyeballs in debt, and having horrible demographics. And having
7.
by berserk1010 3y ago
Not really seeing a "stagnation" using a graph, in the last 6 years https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/taiwan/annual-househol... 13k in 2017, 17k in 2022, 30% increase. and 22k in 2023, 30% incr
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by berserk1010 3y ago
Here's an interesting and often used Chinese government propaganda word they use: vassal. It's meant to insult any U.S allies that work together with U.S against Chinese aggression, and to try to drive a wedge between the countri
9.
by berserk1010 3y ago
here are some more companies have announced over $166 billion in manufacturing in semiconductors and electronics, and at least 50 community colleges in 19 states have announced new or expanded programming to help American workers access goo
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by berserk1010 3y ago
> US is a frail aging empire that just cannot handle the peaceful rise of China Not seeing that by the numbers 1.) The heavy market losses in 2024 come hot on the heels of a bruising run last year, when the CSI 300 index, comprising 300
11.
by berserk1010 3y ago
> Being too close and too dependent on China mainland This is changing quickly. New investments in China by Taiwanese companies declined 10.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of the year (2023) to US$758 million...That follows a
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by berserk1010 3y ago
here are some numbers U.S. manufacturing construction spending reached a 20-year high, hitting a $194 billion annual rate in April 2023, nearly double the $107 billion annual rate from a year ago. https://thinkkc.com/news&#x
13.
by berserk1010 3y ago
Correct, Europe would be wise to detach from China faster Exports to the EU fell 11% from a year earlier to $38.3 billion in November compared https://apnews.com/article/china-exports-imports-decline-eco... China'
14.
by berserk1010 3y ago
> It’s crazy to me that you haven’t see more divestments in China from Taiwanese companies. There is a ton of divestment, what do you mean? New investments in China by Taiwanese companies declined 10.4 percent year-on-year in the first q
15.
by berserk1010 3y ago
Many wrong things with comments. Your pro-china KMT bias is showing > Taiwan will never compete on the global market for most of its products. the aggregate brand value of Taiwan's 25 largest brands totaled US$13.84 billion in 2023
16.
by berserk1010 3y ago
Lots of wrong things with the comments > Contrast that to the US and Europe who keep talking about these things, but don't actually execute(although the US at least tries to throw money at the problem). "Our analysis of multipl
17.
by berserk1010 3y ago
It's not a distraction; most of the developed countries have similar level of range of debt. Maybe that's how modern developed economies are suppose to function.
18.
by berserk1010 3y ago
Most developed countries' economies have in the range of debt that Zeihan described, so not sure what you're getting at, unless you think the developed countries as a whole is crashing. Not seeing that really anywhere with low un
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by berserk1010 3y ago
dupe: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39211473 Take a look at Zeihan's video where he shows in a graph how US debt level compares to other major economies. https://youtu.be/mcZPOuI-vcU?t=939 . US i
20.
by berserk1010 3y ago
That's a valid question. He does have videos where he just speaks off top of his head, and I prefer the ones where he has charts and numbers that he speaks to. If you don't believe his charts and numbers, find ones online that y
21.
by berserk1010 3y ago
Take a look at Zeihan's video where he shows in a graph how US debt level compares to other major economies. https://youtu.be/mcZPOuI-vcU?t=939 . US is in the middle of the pack. US is going to be ok. Also, watch unt
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by berserk1010 3y ago
That's why we need remote work to increase even further, from the current 12.7% of population. So people can live in cheaper areas. Unfortunately, C level execs get in the way CEOs Are Using Return to Office Mandates to Mask Poor Mana
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by berserk1010 3y ago
> China is still urbanizing rapidly. Many things wrong with that statement. There is a reverse migration from cities back to countryside, since the wages in the city have fallen, jobs have disappeared, rent is still expensive, and it&#x
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by berserk1010 3y ago
this regime, aka Xi Jing Ping's reign is pretty stupid. He has had failed projects after failed projects for 10 years now. Also, dictatorships don't care about unemployed young men, look at Putin, sending waves of unequipped unt
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by berserk1010 3y ago
> Most of the unfinished buildings will be completed in 2-5 years. Many things wrong with that statement. Chinese local governments are overloaded with debt - 12.6 TRILLION https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/
26.
by berserk1010 3y ago
I mean 3 years to start liquidation. Lehman brother's liquidation started on 9/19/2008, a few days after it filed for bankruptcy on 9/15/2008. https://www.sipc.org/news-and-media/news-releases
27.
by berserk1010 3y ago
Definitely. And country garden is bigger and more focused on properties in non-tier 1 cities than Evergrande, and has 4X more unfinished buildings than Evergrande, which means the collapse will be even greater
28.
by berserk1010 3y ago
Depends, are you one of those overseas Chinese police that threatens Chinese citizens abroad with their families' life in China unless they cooperate and stay silent on social media? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-
29.
by berserk1010 3y ago
I guess you weren't looking hard enough. Pre-owned housing prices in Shenzhen fell by nearly half from their peak in 2020 after holding up over the past two years of plunging new-home values amid slumping demand and a liquidity crunch
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by berserk1010 3y ago
Chinese equities suffered a US$3.4 billion outflow from non-resident portfolios in the last month of 2023, while Chinese bonds only had a marginal US$189 million inflow for the same month, according to preliminary data from the Institute of

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