19 ms·

You're discounting the very real possibility that Parag is operating as if the deal will not go through, and is making large strategic decisions in anticipation

You're discounting the very real possibility that Parag is operating as if the deal will not go through, and is making large strategic decisions in anticipation of that being the case. For Parag, I don't see it "burning his reputation" at all, considering either a) he's right and will face the tall task of helming a Twitter that continues to disappoint its investors or b) he's wrong and it won't be his problem when Elon fires him next year.

Traster 4y ago
But what's changed? If Parag wanted to go this direction why didn't he do it when he took over as CEO?
- e-clinton 4y ago
  It’s been like 5 months. I’d imagine he’s still learning about the issues.
  - devmunchies 4y ago
    He's been at twitter for 11 years and was the CTO, should take a couple weeks to get up to speed on the knowledge delta between CEO and CTO.
    - Infinitesimus 4y ago
      You might be underestimating the complexity of being a good CEO (not to say he is) at a public tech company under a lot of global government scrutiny.
- sulam 4y ago
  A thoughtful CEO doesn’t take the role and immediately start making changes. It takes some time to absorb what’s going on.
  - Traster 4y ago
    It's not like he was an outsider, he was CTO for about 5 years before he became CEO. He knew what was going on in the company.
    - sulam 4y ago
      Knowing Parag, he probably didn’t actually have strong opinions about Product until it was his job to.
- hackerfromthefu 4y ago
  We've passed an inflection point from a bull to a bear market.
fny 4y ago
It maximizes his chance of survival either way. The probability that Elon is margin called by year end is roughly 40% according to option prices. - 60% chance you get fired either by Musk or investors if you don't turn the ship. - 40% chance you Musk is margin called and doesn't take over, but still might be fired by investors or acquired by someone else who may in turn can him.
- SemanticStrengh 4y ago
  The crypto crisis should significantly diminish musk wealth no?
  - heartbreak 4y ago
    You’re getting downvoted for no apparent reason, but there’s an argument to be made here that crypto crashing would cause retail investors to pull out of investments altogether, and meme stocks like Tesla would take a hit. Bloomberg, WSJ, etc. are all writing about this potential contagion effect today.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    No, why would you think that? His wealth is mostly owning 20% of Tesla, plus some extra few billions from owning significant fractions of SpaceX, The Boring Company, and Neuralink. Presumably there’s some cash in there as well, but on his scale a hundred million is a rounding error.
    - SamBam 4y ago
      It still confuses me that being part-owner of an old dot-com payment company, part-owner of a mid-sized car company (by number of cars sold), and part-owner of a (very good) rocket company make a person richer than anyone has ever been in the history of the planet, but that's probably because I just haven't looked into it enough.
      - disgruntledphd2 4y ago
        I think Mr Musk will no longer be the world's richest man by end of 2023.
altacc 4y ago
If the deal falls through then Twitter will probably have to announce some big changes to keep its stock price from falling too much. Although this move could have been made after the deal's collapse is announced but maybe he wants to have things in place before that happens.
- kenrik 4y ago
  It'll be a bloodbath if the deal falls through since there was a runup when Elon first started sniffing around. The fact that it's not pegged to the purchase price already shows there is some skepticism that it actually closes.
dekhn 4y ago
CEOs of large companies that are forced out during acquisitions often fail upward. It really depends on how they behave right before the close. Effectively, the CEO has to advocate for the company and get the most out of the acquisition, and if they do, they are often rewarded (with seats on board or choice of next job). realistically, he will be able to retire for life after this if he chooses, and will be able to select a job offer that works well for him.
- throwaway_1928 4y ago
  Job offer or not, $42 million for doing almost nothing is a great deal.
  - nr2x 4y ago
    Sign me up.
    - black_13 4y ago
      See my previous comments
  - HeyLaughingBoy 4y ago
    Not if your one desire is to run large corporations and you're easily bored.
    - saghm 4y ago
      I'd consider myself easily bored, but I think $42 million would give me plenty of novel ways to entertain myself. (I definitely would _not_ want to run a large corporation though, so I guess it's a good thing I'd never get hired for one of these jobs anyways)
      - FridgeSeal 4y ago
        Hell, even if you managed a year or two, you’re still walking away with tens of millions that’s pretty close to financial security for the rest of your life.
duxup 4y ago
I worked at a big company that was being acquired. The bigger acquiring company needed our company to sell off some divisions to avoid regulatory issues. So we were in this "going to be acquired.. one day" phase for like 18 months. In the meantime our company actually had to tell the a subsidiary of bigger acquiring company.... to sort of shove off on a partnership we had with them. This subsidiary was crap and they were not holding up their end of the partnership. It was reiterated many times that "while we will likely be acquired by their parent company our job is to operate in the interest of our current stockholders and that best interest is to no longer work with <subsidiary>". No word if the acquiring company ever responded negatively. By all accounts they understood (and really had a bigger picture in mind). That situation seemed pretty logical to me.
- arthurcolle 4y ago
  so what happened?
  - duxup 4y ago
    Company eventually acquired. Never heard about the subsidiary again.
throwaway4good 4y ago
If Elon bails the deal. Twitter will be at 1/3 the price and there will probably be massive layoffs.
sillysaurusx 4y ago
Ding ding ding. Congratulations, you are tonight’s HN winner. The Twitter deal didn’t go through, and you totally called it.
- version_five 4y ago
  I remembered the parent comment from yesterday and came to say the same thing. It aged very well.

Traster 4y ago

But what's changed? If Parag wanted to go this direction why didn't he do it when he took over as CEO?

e-clinton 4y ago
It’s been like 5 months. I’d imagine he’s still learning about the issues.
- devmunchies 4y ago
  He's been at twitter for 11 years and was the CTO, should take a couple weeks to get up to speed on the knowledge delta between CEO and CTO.
  - Infinitesimus 4y ago
    You might be underestimating the complexity of being a good CEO (not to say he is) at a public tech company under a lot of global government scrutiny.
sulam 4y ago
A thoughtful CEO doesn’t take the role and immediately start making changes. It takes some time to absorb what’s going on.
- Traster 4y ago
  It's not like he was an outsider, he was CTO for about 5 years before he became CEO. He knew what was going on in the company.
  - sulam 4y ago
    Knowing Parag, he probably didn’t actually have strong opinions about Product until it was his job to.
hackerfromthefu 4y ago
We've passed an inflection point from a bull to a bear market.

fny 4y ago

It maximizes his chance of survival either way. The probability that Elon is margin called by year end is roughly 40% according to option prices. - 60% chance you get fired either by Musk or investors if you don't turn the ship. - 40% chance you Musk is margin called and doesn't take over, but still might be fired by investors or acquired by someone else who may in turn can him.

SemanticStrengh 4y ago
The crypto crisis should significantly diminish musk wealth no?
- heartbreak 4y ago
  You’re getting downvoted for no apparent reason, but there’s an argument to be made here that crypto crashing would cause retail investors to pull out of investments altogether, and meme stocks like Tesla would take a hit. Bloomberg, WSJ, etc. are all writing about this potential contagion effect today.
- ben_w 4y ago
  No, why would you think that? His wealth is mostly owning 20% of Tesla, plus some extra few billions from owning significant fractions of SpaceX, The Boring Company, and Neuralink. Presumably there’s some cash in there as well, but on his scale a hundred million is a rounding error.
  - SamBam 4y ago
    It still confuses me that being part-owner of an old dot-com payment company, part-owner of a mid-sized car company (by number of cars sold), and part-owner of a (very good) rocket company make a person richer than anyone has ever been in the history of the planet, but that's probably because I just haven't looked into it enough.
    - disgruntledphd2 4y ago
      I think Mr Musk will no longer be the world's richest man by end of 2023.

altacc 4y ago

If the deal falls through then Twitter will probably have to announce some big changes to keep its stock price from falling too much. Although this move could have been made after the deal's collapse is announced but maybe he wants to have things in place before that happens.

kenrik 4y ago
It'll be a bloodbath if the deal falls through since there was a runup when Elon first started sniffing around. The fact that it's not pegged to the purchase price already shows there is some skepticism that it actually closes.

dekhn 4y ago

CEOs of large companies that are forced out during acquisitions often fail upward. It really depends on how they behave right before the close. Effectively, the CEO has to advocate for the company and get the most out of the acquisition, and if they do, they are often rewarded (with seats on board or choice of next job). realistically, he will be able to retire for life after this if he chooses, and will be able to select a job offer that works well for him.

throwaway_1928 4y ago
Job offer or not, $42 million for doing almost nothing is a great deal.
- nr2x 4y ago
  Sign me up.
  - black_13 4y ago
    See my previous comments
- HeyLaughingBoy 4y ago
  Not if your one desire is to run large corporations and you're easily bored.
  - saghm 4y ago
    I'd consider myself easily bored, but I think $42 million would give me plenty of novel ways to entertain myself. (I definitely would _not_ want to run a large corporation though, so I guess it's a good thing I'd never get hired for one of these jobs anyways)
    - FridgeSeal 4y ago
      Hell, even if you managed a year or two, you’re still walking away with tens of millions that’s pretty close to financial security for the rest of your life.

duxup 4y ago

I worked at a big company that was being acquired. The bigger acquiring company needed our company to sell off some divisions to avoid regulatory issues. So we were in this "going to be acquired.. one day" phase for like 18 months. In the meantime our company actually had to tell the a subsidiary of bigger acquiring company.... to sort of shove off on a partnership we had with them. This subsidiary was crap and they were not holding up their end of the partnership. It was reiterated many times that "while we will likely be acquired by their parent company our job is to operate in the interest of our current stockholders and that best interest is to no longer work with <subsidiary>". No word if the acquiring company ever responded negatively. By all accounts they understood (and really had a bigger picture in mind). That situation seemed pretty logical to me.

arthurcolle 4y ago
so what happened?
- duxup 4y ago
  Company eventually acquired. Never heard about the subsidiary again.

throwaway4good 4y ago

If Elon bails the deal. Twitter will be at 1/3 the price and there will probably be massive layoffs.

sillysaurusx 4y ago

Ding ding ding. Congratulations, you are tonight’s HN winner. The Twitter deal didn’t go through, and you totally called it.

version_five 4y ago
I remembered the parent comment from yesterday and came to say the same thing. It aged very well.