29 ms·

Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

231 points by DantesKite 5y ago

ceejayoz 5y ago
> "A Nordic study involving Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark found that men under the age of 30 who received Moderna Spikevax had a slightly higher risk than others of developing myocarditis," he said. I find it frustrating that we’re still not putting numbers on statements like this in news articles. How slight?
- peakaboo 5y ago
  Does it matter? You may have noticed that you are not allowed to be against the vaccine. What's the point then to even discuss any numbers? All of this should appearently be decided by experts, isn't that the general consensus?
- tim333 5y ago
  The more important question to me is how bad it is. Myocarditis is inflammation of the heart muscle. If you get that as a long term thing with no obvious cause it's obviously bad. But if you get it for a couple of days after a vaccine and it goes away it wouldn't seem a big deal.
- teekert 5y ago
  Yeah I hate that, is it something real or are my chances lower than being bitten to death by a dog?
  - agumonkey 5y ago
    Why are people only focusing on numbers. There are tons of negative stuff with higher odds of happening to you but I don't want to risk myocarditis. I'd rather get bitten, unless it's a rabid dog.
    - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
      Because people focus on the idea that the vaccine induced myocarditis is bad, while ignoring the rate of myocarditis from the condition the vaccine is there to prevent. But you're right, there's a whole spectrum of other problems.
    - raxxorrax 5y ago
      Dog bites can cause myocarditis. Typical monday when that happens.
      - agumonkey 5y ago
        TIL about Capnocytophaga canimorsus
- jdlyga 5y ago
  I wonder if it's because it's a higher dose. Slightly better protection against covid and slightly higher risk of side effects.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- azinman2 5y ago
  2.7 per 100k [1] according to an Israeli study. Couldn’t find these details on the Scandinavian study. This article at least in text said you’re more at risk of getting it from Covid than the vaccine — I wish this context with numbers were always printed in these cases. The non-scientifically trained public isn’t taught or should be expected to know how to contextualize these things. [1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475
  - mfer 5y ago
    The Israeli study was on Phizer. Finland is recommending people people not take Moderna and instead take the Phizer. Without a more detailed case behind this it feels like "just trust us". I'd really like some trust but verify. The lack of ability to verify many of these directions, especially with some of them from different organizations contradicting each other, is bothersome.
    - azinman2 5y ago
      New study using Kaiser data with both Pfizer and Moderna all ages [1]. 15 cases out of 2,392,924 (0.8 cases per 1 million first doses and 5.8 cases per 1 million second doses over a 10-day observation window), of which all were men with a median age of 25 years. While that's both vaccines, it's still quite rare especially given the large population size (2.3M people), especially considering for under 16s your risk of myocarditis is 37x more likely if you get Covid [2]. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2784800 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar... [2] https://www.aappublications.org/news/2021/08/31/covid-myocarditis-risk-children-083121 https://www.aappublications.org/news/2021/08/31/covid-myocar...
      - mfer 5y ago
        Thanks for the data. In a world where people like to talk about their opinions, it's great to have some form of foundation. When I speak to folks and can talk about these details it often sways opinions on those who aren't at the extremes. I wish more people shared data and the foundation for their opinion.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  CDC's numbers are here, if you're curious: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/03-COVID-Su-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...
- deverant 5y ago
  Taken from https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12132652 https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12132652 (sorry, in Finnish): Spikevax: 5 cases out of about 49000 Comirnaty: 6 out of about 380000 I think these are numbers from Finland specifically and not the larger study.
  - nojokes 5y ago
    They say less than 5.
- mortehu 5y ago
  On the other hand communication during this pandemic has been littered with point estimates where confidence intervals should have been used. Based on the FHI announcement, I think the result is not significant, but the decision was made because the Moderna vaccine is now redundant in Scandinavia.
- jbergstroem 5y ago
  In sweden, this seems to be the "recommendation" from the government: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2021/oktober/anvandningen-av-modernas-vaccin-mot-covid-19-pausas-for-alla-som-ar-fodda-1991-och-senare/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhets... ..which links to https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/sv/nyheter/covid-19-mrna-vaccinerna-comirnaty-och-spikevax-risk-for-myokardit-och-perikardit https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/sv/nyheter/covid-19-mrna-vac... ..which in turn seems to point here: https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/4a0b25/globalassets/dokument/nyheter/dhpc/comirnaty-spikevax-dhpc-2021-07-19.pdf https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/4a0b25/globalassets/dokument... ..which references EMA & EES which are European that states "145 cases of myocarditis out of 177M dosis of Comirnaty". Have anyone else found a better source?
  - mschild 5y ago
    Comirnaty is the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine. Spikevax the Moderna one. I dont know Swedish. Does it provide any numbers for Spikevax?
    - CookiesOnMyDesk 5y ago
      only numbers are from july, 19 cases of each *carditis after 20m doses.
      - barney54 5y ago
        But how many doses are in men under 30? That is the right subpopulation to look at, not the entire population.
        CookiesOnMyDesk 5y ago
        Ask the Swedes, not me.
    - thepasswordis 5y ago
      Can somebody please get moderna and pfizer a new person to come up with these names?
- schmichael 5y ago
  Indeed. A little clicking, and I couldn't find numbers either. Luckily raw numbers aren't all that necessary for decision making because: > The risk of myocarditis is substantially increased for those who contract COVID-19, and vaccination is the best way to protect against this. So even if only Moderna is available to you, you are still safer getting it than COVID-19. I think these countries are just making sure that each demographic gets the safest vaccine for them which is great.
- Gibbon1 5y ago
  They don't because if they put numbers and also described the usual clinical course of these cases it would show the issue to be a nothing burger. The numbers I saw were about 1.0 per 100k were hospitalized for 2-3 days. No deaths and half those recovered completely after a month. I haven't seen anyone say this but that's probably the same risk of myocarditis you get from the flu. And 100 times lower than the risk from covid.
- mikeyouse 5y ago
  The study is preliminary - but they're being cautious and recommending young men switch to the Pfizer vaccine since the risk of myocarditis is lower. But just so people don't get the wrong idea, they're finding that the risk of myocarditis in young men who've actually caught Covid is something like 6x more likely than in those who received the vaccine: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v... So if you're a young male, the correct response to avoiding myocarditis (among all of the other downsides that come with actually catching Covid) is to get vaccinated with the Pfizer or J&J shots.
  - nicoburns 5y ago
    As a young male who got myocarditis from both covid and the vaccine, the other thing that's worth knowing that I wish I'd known earlier: if you do get it, then the best thing to do to prevent long-term damage is to avoid exercise completely (potentially for 6 months to a year, or until you've been cleared by a doctor).
    - __blockcipher__ 5y ago
      Just out of curiosity, did you get COVID first and then decided to get the vaccine later on? Or was it the other way around? I'm guessing the former - I've had friends who had COVID and their doctors still advised them to get the vaccine - and find it quite troubling if so. We've known for so long now how robust natural immunity is - and before we "knew for sure" any sane person's priors would still assume natural immunity works the way it does for any other respiratory pathogen - yet there was a concerted institutional/media push to act as if immunity literally didn't exist, or the more subtle form that immunity might exist but that vaccine immunity is "better". Not that it's super relevant but the friends I mentioned were mid 20's and in fine health, no weird immune disorders or anything, so the fact that their doc advised the vaccine was frankly just negligence in my book.
      - basch 5y ago
        One answer I can think of is if you caught covid and then got regeneron. A month later, after the regeneron wears off, you’d probably want to build up your body’s immunity.
- that_lurker 5y ago
  Taken and translated from THL's website[1] (Finnish Institute for Healt and Welfare ) "in its study, THL has examined the incidence of myocardial inflammation requiring hospitalization in different age groups. In boys and men aged 12–39 years, a total of 6 cases of myocarditis have been reported in Finland per 381,000 doses of Comirnaty and less than 5 cases per less than 49,000 doses of Spikevax in Finland. A total of less than five cases of myocarditis have been reported in girls and women of the same age, and the prevalence of myocarditis in women and girls after vaccination has not differed from that normally seen in the general population." The study is still ongoing in Finland, but as the early results seem to match with the other nordic countries the limitation has been placed. [1] (Page is only in Finnish still as it was written today). https://thl.fi/fi/-/thl-ohjeistaa-tarjoamaan-alle-30-vuotiaille-miehille-vain-comirnaty-koronarokotetta-spikevaxin-yhteytta-sydanlihastulehdukseen-arvioidaan https://thl.fi/fi/-/thl-ohjeistaa-tarjoamaan-alle-30-vuotiai...
- yes_man 5y ago
  https://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/thl-monitoring-myocarditis-after-covid-19-vaccination-are-rare-in-finland-and-also-occur-in-those-infected-with-covid-19 https://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/thl-monitoring-myocarditis-... According to Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, an additional 4 cases per 100k men under the age of 30. They also note that having covid is a risk factor for myocarditis. So perhaps still worth it to take the shot. Possibly they are doing this to put out the antivax wildfires in social media by reacting to statistical information about risks. So as to show that when there are scientifically established risks, there will be reaction to that as well.
  - nabla9 5y ago
    It seems like if you take everything into account, taking the vaccine might not provide any benefit from men under 30. Any medical intervention must be beneficial to justify the use. If it's so and so, or equal risk, then it's not done. EDIT: The alternative is not stopping vaccinations. Men under 30 are given Pfizer.
    - neuronexmachina 5y ago
      Based on the data in the study linked below, the risk for myocarditis among COVID-19 patients is 0.146%, and 0.009% among people without COVID-19 (study was done pre-vaccine). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm > During March 2020–January 2021, the risk for myocarditis was 0.146% among patients with COVID-19 and 0.009% among patients without COVID-19. Among patients with COVID-19, the risk for myocarditis was higher among males (0.187%) than among females (0.109%) and was highest among adults aged ≥75 years (0.238%), 65–74 years (0.186%), and 50–64 years (0.155%) and among children aged <16 years (0.133%).
      - nabla9 5y ago
        The alternative is not stopping vaccinations. Men under 30 are given Pfizer.
    - tptacek 5y ago
- deleted 5y ago
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- citilife 5y ago
  The long-term studies I am way more curious about. Heart damage typically can cause lasting effects. Many people may have heart damage and not even know it. I'm not making any specific claims, just that it's unknown. Here's an explanation of how a heart cannot or very slowly repairs: https://www.uclahealth.org/heart/cardiac-repair-regeneration https://www.uclahealth.org/heart/cardiac-repair-regeneration
  - guywhocodes 5y ago
    I personally know three persons that got some degree of chest pain. I had worse symptoms than they did, now 3 months later I can let my heart rate hit maximum, which is significantly lower than before. My cardiologist says that without an MRI he can't diagnose me and my insurance did not cover it. It's quite likely imo that there is a relevant diagnosis not being made because it's inaccessible.
    - AndrewBissell 5y ago
      > My cardiologist says that without an MRI he can't diagnose me and my insurance did not cover it. It's quite likely imo that there is a relevant diagnosis not being made because it's inaccessible. I would suggest you report it to VAERS, but everyone's decided that data should just be ignored so what's the point?
      - phonypc 5y ago
        Nobody says it should be ignored. You just can't take the reports at face value and use any loose connection to a condition as proof positive that the condition was present and associated with the vaccine. It's meant for identifying possible correlations for further study, not relaying the true rate of events.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- l1ambda 5y ago
  https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ontario-now-recommending-against-moderna-vaccine-for-men-18-24-years-old https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ontario-now-recommend... "Ontario now recommending against Moderna vaccine for men 18-24 years old...This comes after public health officials determined there is a 1 in 5,000 risk of myocarditis — a form of heart inflammation — following a second dose of the Moderna vaccine."
  - vkou 5y ago
    Which is, by the way, still multiple orders of magnitude lower than the risk of myocarditis from catching COVID.
    - RustyRussell 5y ago
      Can you provide data? Here's the weekly Ontario report on vaccine side effects: at the end is the myocarditis/pericarditis breakdown: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/health-topics/immunization/vaccine-safety https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/health-topics/immuniza...
      - vkou 5y ago
        > Among patients with COVID-19, the risk for myocarditis was higher among males (0.187%) than among females (0.109%) and was highest among adults aged ≥75 years (0.238%), 65–74 years (0.186%), and 50–64 years (0.155%) and among children aged <16 years (0.133%). > In adjusted analyses, patients with COVID-19 had, on average, 15.7 (95% CI = 14.1–17.2) times the risk for myocarditis compared with patients without COVID-19; Okay, so it's 'just' an order of magnitude higher. Unfortunately, myocarditis is one of the least serious side effects of COVID. If you have a choice between a vaccine that offers 95% protection against COVID, and a 1 in 5000 chance of myocarditis, and one that offers 90% protection against COVID, and a zero chance of myocarditis, you're better off taking the former. You're also far better off taking either one, compared to being unvaccinated. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm
- tablespoon 5y ago
  >> "A Nordic study involving Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark found that men under the age of 30 who received Moderna Spikevax had a slightly higher risk than others of developing myocarditis," he said. > I find it frustrating that we’re still not putting numbers on statements like this in news articles. This article on the same general topic has numbers: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/06/health/covid-vaccine-children-dose.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/06/health/covid-vaccine-chil... > A New Vaccine Strategy for Children: Just One Dose, for Now > Myocarditis, a rare side effect, occurs mostly after the second dose. So in some countries, officials are trying out single doses for children.... > Officials in Hong Kong as well as in Britain, Norway and other countries have recommended a single dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children ages 12 and older — providing partial protection from the virus, but without the potential harms occasionally observed after two doses.... > Advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reviewed data on myocarditis in June, and unanimously voted to recommend the vaccine for children ages 12 and older, saying the benefits far outweighed the risk. > Agency research has estimated that for every million vaccinated boys ages 12 to 17 in the United States, the shots might cause a maximum of 70 myocarditis cases, but they would prevent 5,700 infections, 215 hospitalizations and two deaths. Studies have also shown that the risk of heart problems after Covid-19 is much higher than after vaccination.... > The latest analysis, which was published on Wednesday in The New England Journal of Medicine, found that the incidence of myocarditis after vaccination in Israel was highest among males aged 16 to 29. About 11 of every 100,000 males in that age group developed the condition a few days after being vaccinated, a rate higher than most earlier estimates. (The risk was negligible in females of any age.) That article also had some interesting discussion about reducing vaccination for young people because of myocarditis. Whether that's a wise decision or not really depends on how well the country in question has contained COVID.
- robomartin 5y ago
  Well my kid was in the hospital for two weeks with myocarditis. One of 700 cases in the US at the time. Not sure what the number might be up to now. He is fine. Interestingly enough, my father was in the hospital at the same time being monitored for a potential heart attack. The were both going through exactly the same testing and treatment. In other words, my young son was, among other things, being tested for the heart attack enzyme. In this case it was the Pfizer vaccine. The rest of the family, myself included, got Moderna. The issue --with kids-- seems to have been that the second dose had to be lower than what they were/are giving them. I haven't followed developments since he got out. He had a three month checkout and all was well. While our entire family is vaccinated, this event made me realize that we must not vilify those who have doubts. Yes, of course, I wish everyone was vaccinated. And yet, I have to ask myself: What would we had done had we known there was a potential for our young kid to actually suffer a heart attack because of the vaccine? As small as the probability of something like that might be, I am not sure how I would answer the question. My wife is an MD. Her opinion is we probably would have given them just one dose. Still, it's easy to say things like that after the fact.
notoclotshot 5y ago
Geez, as the real data behind the vaccine slowly drips out I'm happier and happier I didn't inject an experimental drug in me. Especially considering all the "studies" thus far have taken place during summer when covid isn't an issue anyways. What we've learned since their release: - the spike protein is toxic - vaccine immunity is narrow, binding to only a few epitopes on the virus - immunity wanes quickly - IgA antibodies aren't produced by the vaccine, causing vaccinated to still suffer infection - heart inflammation becoming more and more common - the mrna accumulated literally all over the body, not just the muscle as we were initially told - manufacturing of these vaccines are subject to frequent contamination And that's just to name a few. Glad I wasn't dumb enough to take one for a disease that's not a risk to most healthy young people.
mfer 5y ago
So, they are halting the Moderna vaccine due to myocarditis and recommending the Phizer shot for younger men. Yet, Israel found the Phizer shot lead to myocarditis issues [0]. I wonder what the numbers are and what data decision makers are looking at. [0] https://archive.is/3bZoH/ https://archive.is/3bZoH/ (NYTimes)
- chippiewill 5y ago
  Moderna and Pfizer are both very similar and likely cause Myocarditis for the same reason. However it's also likely that people will have a worse reaction to Moderna (if they have one) because the vaccine doses are far larger than with Pfizer. This is born out in the statistics that show that while we see Myocarditis for both vaccines, the prevalence seems to be higher for Moderna.
- mach1ne 5y ago
  I assume that the numbers reported (one comment quoted 6/39000) are actually lowballed, since you constantly hear about cases where symptoms obviously relevant to covid/vaccines are dismissed as not connected. I would guess decisionmakers take the reluctance to report into account when estimating the true risk factors.
  - kspacewalk2 5y ago
    >I would guess decisionmakers take the reluctance to report into account when estimating the true risk factors. I would guess they do no such thing.
- polack 5y ago
  Sweden have had 125 reported cases of myocarditis for people that have used Pfizer and 44 that used Moderna. But then there have been 10,6 million shots of Pfizer administered and only 1,8 million shots of Moderna. So quite clear that the risk is higher for Moderna, even though the risk is low for both of them.
  - Antipode 5y ago
mytoothhurts 5y ago
Geez, as the real data behind the vaccine slowly drips out I'm happier and happier I didn't inject an experimental drug in me. Especially considering all the "studies" thus far have taken place during summer when covid isn't an issue anyways. What we've learned since their release: - the spike protein is toxic - vaccine immunity is narrow, binding to only a few epitopes on the virus - immunity wanes quickly - IgA antibodies aren't produced by the vaccine, causing vaccinated to still suffer infection - heart inflammation becoming more and more common - the mrna accumulated literally all over the body, not just the muscle as we were initially told - manufacturing of these vaccines are subject to frequent contamination And that's just to name a few. Glad didn't take the jab for a disease that's not a risk to most healthy young people.
tomp 5y ago
In 6 months we've gone from "vaccines are 100% safe and well tested and there's no chance of long-term side effects whatsoever" to 3 out of 4 "main" vaccines being not recommended for different groups of people. Great for science, not so great for trust in public officials & experts.
- 542458 5y ago
  I feel you’re taking the wrong message away here - the countries in question have more than enough doses, and can pick and choose between the vaccines. None of the vaccines are more dangerous than covid itself, but the government is recommending that (since they have an adequate supply) their people shouldn’t bother with the ones that are potentially extremely marginally more risky. If the “best” vaccine didn’t exist, they’d still be recommending the next best one.
  - tssge 5y ago
    What about those who have natural immunity? As someone who has recovered from covid before the vaccines, it feels unfair to be forced to take the vaccine when the risks seem to outweigh the benefits. No one seems to even notice the people with natural immunity, we are always skipped when having a discussion about vaccines.
  - tomp 5y ago
    There's a lot of nuance that you're not taking into account. For example, previously infected benefit minimally from getting vaccinated (they're already better protected than non-infected but vaccinated individuals). The risks of covid are strongly correlated with age and healthiness, as are risks of vaccines (e.g. affects particularly young men). There's many variables that individuals can take into account when deciding what to do. Note that I'm mainly criticising anti-scientific propaganda sold as science, and forced vaccinations, not vaccination itself (in general or specifically for COVID).
    - Delk 5y ago
      It seems the number of myocarditis cases in Finland has been in the order of a few cases out of a few hundred thousand vaccinated in the specific demographic, so perhaps approximately one per 100,000, give or take. That's still not far from 100 percent, and the 100 percent might be substantially more correct than "not 100 % safe" in terms of the impression it gives. Of course nothing is actually 100 percent, in anything, ever, but sometimes it's practically close enough from an epidemiological point of view that some people probably find it easier to round things. Better than saying that there may be some rare risk of this or that, because some people are going to get hung up on that, and that might cause more harm than good. Public communication about these kinds of risks is anything but easy to get right.
orf 5y ago
~2.7 cases of myocarditis per 100k. Deadly car crashes in the US is about 11 deaths per 100k (between 3.3 and 25 when looking at states directly, 18.2 worldwide average). That's not even counting indirect deaths caused by car fumes. So to the person posting the same thing from new accounts about vaccines being a great risk to yourself, I hope you take driving and crossing the road as seriously as you take getting vaccinated because that's faaar more dangerous (especially if you live in Wyoming).
- DantesKite 5y ago
  The risk profiles are different, since one is multiplicative and one is additive. One car crash won't cause 100,000 car crashes, but an infectious disease can.
  - 542458 5y ago
    The post you’re replying to is a bit unclear - it’s talking about the risk of contracting myocarditis, not COVID.
- yabones 5y ago
  The rate might be higher, but the cluster effect is completely different. If you're in traffic, the only people you can "spread" a car accident to are the other cars around you. But with infectious disease, you have a chance of spreading it to everybody you contact, all day every day. You can't sit near somebody on the bus who transmits car accidents to you. Nor can you get in a car accident because your child caught it from school from a classmate whose parent got it from somebody they work with. Statistically it might make sense, but that's not how the real world works. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
  - orf 5y ago
    Sure, I agree, but I was referring to 2.7 cases of myocarditis per 100k after taking the vaccine. The cluster effect is still different but not as wildly different as comparing rates of COVID per capita to car crashes.
  - 5y ago
jimbob45 5y ago
> The cases of myocarditis and pericarditis were "generally mild," and individuals "tend to recover within a short time following standard treatment and rest," Pfizer said in a statement. This is the closest I got to any of the study. If you can link me to the actual study paper, you’re my hero.
- georgekv 5y ago
  Don't have nordic study but here's NEJM Israeli one from the other day: "In our study, definite or probable cases of myocarditis among persons between the ages of 16 and 19 years within 21 days after the second vaccine dose occurred in approximately 1 of 6637 male recipients" https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109730?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article&utm_source=pocket_mylist#article_discussion_sc3 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109730?query=re...
mytoothhurts 5y ago
To the mods censoring me: I hate you all
bsaul 5y ago
All people here pointing that you still should get vaccinated because side effects of vaccines are still less likely : Let's not forget that : 1-some european country are already past the delta variant wave (so you have to ponderate by the chance of actually getting infected) 2- we still have no idea what the new variant of the next wave of covid is going to look like, when it is going to happen, and if the vaccine is going to offer any protection. as an example, living in France, my personal choice atm is to not get the vaccine... ( and in all cases i'll definitely check for antibodies before getting a shot, in case i already got infected without knowing)
solarkraft 5y ago
Is it rational? The same concerns have been raised about the BioNTech vaccine, yet that is still perfectly in use.
gorwell 5y ago
A lot of comments here asking for specific numbers and making comparisons to other risks. That's exactly how one should be looking at this. What I don't understand is why people don't apply this same critical thought process to the risks of Covid? For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? If you said >50%, you would be in good company. It's the most common answer. But what's the actual risk? <1%. When vaccinated, the risk is even lower! Yet people are still more afraid of Covid than myriad other risks we accept on a daily basis and don't even think about, and certainly don't rearrange our lives around. For whatever reason, we are avoiding a basic cost benefit analysis and vastly overestimate the risks. "92% overstate the risk that unvaccinated people will be hospitalized, and 62% overstate the risk for vaccinated people" https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimates-covid-hospitalization-risk.aspx https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimat...
- sergiotapia 5y ago
  It's heretical to say such things and "anti-science" as branded by the media. The fact that California now wants kids to get the vaccine is bonkers to me. Kids don't even feel this shit if they catch it. Pharmaceutical companies must be paying big bucks to the politicians in that state.
  - javagram 5y ago
    Covid is more dangerous to kids than chicken pox, we still vaccinate kids for chickenpox though. Hundreds of children have died of Covid-19. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Focus-on-Ages-0-18-Yea/nr4s-juj3 https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Focus-...
    - makomk 5y ago
      Not all countries vaccinate kids for chickenpox. The UK still doesn't for example. I'm pretty sure it's easily the least necessary of the childhood vaccinations.
    - Jensson 5y ago
kaitai 5y ago
Note a cultural memory component: in Finland (and Norway, Sweden) there was a rash of narcolepsy after the swine flu vaccinations of 2009-2010. Gov't was criticized for not reacting quickly enough (to be fair, side effect was not observed until vaccinations were ~complete, and so it was all just rearguard action after that). Lots of memory, bad press about kids being damaged. There is a cultural-political component here beyond the science. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/03/studies-confirm-h1n1-vaccine-narcolepsy-link-finnish-kids https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/03/studies-...
- dingdongbing 5y ago
  There is not a political component to this, we (Sweden) have probably the most objective and science based Health system in the world. For this reason we get criticized by other nations for not having lockdowns and not wearing masks, there is no indication that these actually work and they probably cause more harm than good. Our leaders have shown great competence to follow the science and not make a knee-jerk reaction to what France and America are doing. If Moderna is clearly worse than Pfizer, then why shouldn't we stop it?
  - nojokes 5y ago
    Except your scientist(s) were wrong this time and killed 10 times more people by not implementing quick and mild restrictions and letting the disease spread. Sure, what US and France did was also different kind of wrong but it does not make you right. Only thing that has been life saving is very quick reaction that limits the spread at its infancy. Also of course quick vaccination.
    - dingdongbing 5y ago
      >Except your scientist(s) were wrong this time and killed 10 times more people by not implementing quick and mild restrictions and letting the disease spread. This is the dumbest hunk of shit I've ever heard. We have the exact same death rates and infection rates as the rest of Europe.
thepasswordis 5y ago
In nordic countries these vaccines are restricted. In the US, they're required. Very odd.
- iammisc 5y ago
  That's because the US is descending into authoritarianism and the nordic countries value freedom, economic and civil.
  - bserge 5y ago
    Oh please.
- Delk 5y ago
  They're restricted in the sense that the health authorities stopped recommending a specific covid-19 vaccine for a particular demographic. That demographic -- young males under 30 -- are recommended and given a vaccine from another vendor (practically Pfizer) instead. That's rather different than the impression you might get from "these vaccines being restricted", or something similar.
  - dingdongbing 5y ago
    That's actually not true, people who got the first dose of moderna will not get a second one, and it's being stopped for all persons under 30, not just males. In practice it will be stopped for everyone above 30 as well. /Swede
- neuronexmachina 5y ago
  Also interesting to note that each of the Nordic countries also has a vaccination rate higher than the US's: https://covid19.healthdata.org/finland?view=vaccinations&tab=compare https://covid19.healthdata.org/finland?view=vaccinations&tab...
- nojokes 5y ago
  Moderna vaccine is not authorized for 12-17 olds in US. Has never been, so no need to restrict it.
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georgekv 5y ago
From NEJM Israeli study on Pfizer: "In our study, definite or probable cases of myocarditis among persons between the ages of 16 and 19 years within 21 days after the second vaccine dose occurred in approximately 1 of 6637 male recipients and in 1 of 99,853 female recipients." Moderna shot is worse then for boys. What again is the rush to vaccinate the lowest risk age group? https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109730?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article&utm_source=pocket_mylist https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109730?query=re...
- silicon2401 5y ago
  this is exactly why the dogmatic culture around vaccines is toxic. Nobody should be forced to take a vaccine before the side effects are even known.
  - nicce 5y ago
    You really don’t have time to wait 5 years for ”complete” results. People don’t understand basic math and threat modeling. How likely you are going to get covid and how serious it can be (for you and others)? How likely you get something serious from vaccine (only you) but most likely avoid serious covid (and spread it less to others)? Of course, forced vaccine might look bad from very selfish perspective, but benefits from bigger picture are obvious even with side effects.
  - nojokes 5y ago
    And how are you going to find these rare events when you do not use the vaccine?
- lightsighter 5y ago
  > What again is the rush to vaccinate the lowest risk age group? Because they still contribute to chain of transmission to the most vulnerable members of society, likely in a disproportional way since younger members of society tend to socialize more. Fighting a virus is a collective action. In order to stop transmission to the vulnerable members, you need to cut edges along all paths through the graph. Furthermore, additional spread, even among healthy people with no side effects, increases the probability of mutations that lead to more fit variants capable of causing even more sickness and death.
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noetic_techy 5y ago
The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly the more we learn and the more fervent the mandates become. We pulled the swine flu vaccine for way less back in 2010, I think it was 12 cases of GBS only! The fact that I know of people who have either had mycarditis AND clots tells me the rate is much higher then reported by VAERS. The reason damn near everyone except for adamant anti-vax have the perception that VACCINE=SAFE/GOOD is that 93% of experimental candidates are rejected and it takes 10-15 years of trails and data to get full approval. It's the reason you are confident giving it to your own children the safety standards are so stringent. These comparisons to your chances of car accidents and being struck by lighting are totally bogus, you need to compare the data to past vaccines! And yet we think we got this mRNA/Adenovirus vector formula right on the first try times 3 different brands with 2 years of reduced trials? That's all gone out the window for the sake of the pandemic emergency and that's fine as long as the choice is clear and consensual, let those who want it take the risk, but don't mandate it. The VAERS data is abysmal, worse then the past 50 years of all vaccine combined, and yet people are now in the mode of dismissing the VAERS system entirely because its self reported, with no alternative to fall back to! The FDA even had the option of setting up a separate system for covid vaccine adverse event reporting and rejected it. Fine, then VAERS it is! The only system we have ever had to judge this by. At what point is it ethical to hand someone a long list of side effects that occur at x50+ higher rates then past vaccines and then say "but you must take this or you can't work". I think in 10 years, we will see this technology as higher risk but much faster turn around times compared to traditional vaccines. Just be up front about it and let people choose.
- AndrewBissell 5y ago
  Actually what happened with the 2010 swine flu vaccine was that people developed narcolepsy starting about a year after the first shots were administered (many of them to people who were never at particularly high risk from the swine flu itself). It took about another year after those symptoms first arose for authorities to acknowledge the link to Pandemrix.
- iratewizard 5y ago
  Here's my vaccine anecdata. My wife and I are at the age when everyone we know is starting to have kids. My wife and I got pregnant on the first try, and 3 of her other friends had similar easy success. All 4 unvaccinated. On the vaccinated side of her friends there are two miscarriages, one stillbirth, one who has been trying since June, one trying much longer than that, and one that we think has been trying for a while but hasn't announced it to the group. If these were caveman times and those people were drinking from a different stream, we would tell them not to drink from it. 3/3 success stories vs. 3 traumatic failures and two or three infertility issues.
marcus_holmes 5y ago
ffs, what have we come to? This is HN, where smart, educated, science-literate people congregate. Reading the comments, I'm ashamed of us. We're better than this. Read the actual f*cking papers people. Not the YouTube videos, not the weird-ass political shit on FB. Not the New York Times, or even Reuters. The actual papers. We've all got SciHub (thankfully!), there's no excuse. If you don't think you're educated enough to grok the actual studies then you're probably not educated enough to understand the issues, and you probably shouldn't be contradicting the experts. Unless, of course, you think this is all a conspiracy, in which case I have a bridge to sell you...
- jamps 5y ago
  Keep cool friend. It gives me headaches as well but... Everybody is entitled to their stupid opinion. So are we :) But I have to react to : > and you probably shouldn't be contradicting the experts. As you know, expert themselves can disagree, and have strong evidence to defend their sides. For example, Niels Bohr and Einstein had massive disagreements, both of them are references, and had convincing arguments. In the end you got to choose what you want to believe in with your intellect and your guts. And if you have neither, the New York Times it is haha
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hanklazard 5y ago
A mouse model linking the myocarditis risk of covid mRNA vaccines to accidental IV injection: https://www.researchhub.com/paper/1266246/intravenous-injection-of-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-can-induce-acute-myopericarditis-in-mouse-model https://www.researchhub.com/paper/1266246/intravenous-inject...
yumraj 5y ago
But want Pfizer vaccine also found to be linked to myocarditis and pericarditis in a very small percentage of younger people, primarily males. OTOH, even COVID is linked to higher percentage of both, and other issues..
m0zg 5y ago
It's being limited only for kids and youth. Simple truth our media is studiously trying to sweep under the rug - almost nobody below age of 30 dies from COVID. Compared to all cause mortality the numbers are laughable and ridiculous. Fewer than 500 kids died _with_ COVID since the beginning of the pandemic in the US. Not _of_, _with_. Under these circumstances, there's simply no justification to give these experimental vaccines to children. And yes, Moderna is still experimental, and it says so in the leaflet they give out when you go for a vaccination. It seems to me that cooler heads are prevailing in at least some European countries, at least until Pfizer/Moderna lobbyists wake up and deliver large suitcases of cash to the decision makers.
- rc2634 5y ago
  We know the seasonal flu kills thousands of kids every year and there are safe and effective vaccines for it that have existed for a long time now, yet we never mandated it for kids. But somehow, fewer than 500 deaths with COVID over almost two years means we have to mandate experimental vaccines that haven’t existed for that long for kids. It makes no sense whatsoever.
Kosirich 5y ago
@dang the reuters title is misleading, please correct The correct one would be in case of Denmark: "Denmark limits Moderna Covid-19 vaccine to over 18s".
tim333 5y ago
Some stats on myocarditis - apparently about 1 in 50,000 get it from the vaccine but in one study 1 in 45 get it from covid so you are better getting vaxxed. The Scandinavians are switching from Moderna to Pfizer for the moment rather than stopping vaccination. (stats https://whyy.org/articles/myocarditis-and-the-covid-19-vaccine-what-to-know-about-rare-heart-inflammation/ https://whyy.org/articles/myocarditis-and-the-covid-19-vacci...)
ctrlp 5y ago
It's probably not so helpful to look at absolute numbers of cases rather than risk reduction. If men under 30 already have a very low risk from Covid and there is an alternate vaccine available, then this policy makes a lot of sense. This is the sort of caution we used to expect from our drug regulators.

231 points by DantesKite 5y ago

> "A Nordic study involving Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark found that men under the age of 30 who received Moderna Spikevax had a slightly higher risk than others of developing myocarditis," he said. I find it frustrating that we’re still not putting numbers on statements like this in news articles. How slight?

peakaboo 5y ago
Does it matter? You may have noticed that you are not allowed to be against the vaccine. What's the point then to even discuss any numbers? All of this should appearently be decided by experts, isn't that the general consensus?
tim333 5y ago
The more important question to me is how bad it is. Myocarditis is inflammation of the heart muscle. If you get that as a long term thing with no obvious cause it's obviously bad. But if you get it for a couple of days after a vaccine and it goes away it wouldn't seem a big deal.
teekert 5y ago
Yeah I hate that, is it something real or are my chances lower than being bitten to death by a dog?
- agumonkey 5y ago
  Why are people only focusing on numbers. There are tons of negative stuff with higher odds of happening to you but I don't want to risk myocarditis. I'd rather get bitten, unless it's a rabid dog.
  - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
    Because people focus on the idea that the vaccine induced myocarditis is bad, while ignoring the rate of myocarditis from the condition the vaccine is there to prevent. But you're right, there's a whole spectrum of other problems.
  - raxxorrax 5y ago
    Dog bites can cause myocarditis. Typical monday when that happens.
    - agumonkey 5y ago
      TIL about Capnocytophaga canimorsus
jdlyga 5y ago
I wonder if it's because it's a higher dose. Slightly better protection against covid and slightly higher risk of side effects.
- deleted 5y ago
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azinman2 5y ago
2.7 per 100k [1] according to an Israeli study. Couldn’t find these details on the Scandinavian study. This article at least in text said you’re more at risk of getting it from Covid than the vaccine — I wish this context with numbers were always printed in these cases. The non-scientifically trained public isn’t taught or should be expected to know how to contextualize these things. [1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110475
- mfer 5y ago
  The Israeli study was on Phizer. Finland is recommending people people not take Moderna and instead take the Phizer. Without a more detailed case behind this it feels like "just trust us". I'd really like some trust but verify. The lack of ability to verify many of these directions, especially with some of them from different organizations contradicting each other, is bothersome.
  - azinman2 5y ago
    New study using Kaiser data with both Pfizer and Moderna all ages [1]. 15 cases out of 2,392,924 (0.8 cases per 1 million first doses and 5.8 cases per 1 million second doses over a 10-day observation window), of which all were men with a median age of 25 years. While that's both vaccines, it's still quite rare especially given the large population size (2.3M people), especially considering for under 16s your risk of myocarditis is 37x more likely if you get Covid [2]. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2784800 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar... [2] https://www.aappublications.org/news/2021/08/31/covid-myocarditis-risk-children-083121 https://www.aappublications.org/news/2021/08/31/covid-myocar...
    - mfer 5y ago
      Thanks for the data. In a world where people like to talk about their opinions, it's great to have some form of foundation. When I speak to folks and can talk about these details it often sways opinions on those who aren't at the extremes. I wish more people shared data and the foundation for their opinion.
dragontamer 5y ago
CDC's numbers are here, if you're curious: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/03-COVID-Su-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...
deverant 5y ago
Taken from https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12132652 https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12132652 (sorry, in Finnish): Spikevax: 5 cases out of about 49000 Comirnaty: 6 out of about 380000 I think these are numbers from Finland specifically and not the larger study.
- nojokes 5y ago
  They say less than 5.
mortehu 5y ago
On the other hand communication during this pandemic has been littered with point estimates where confidence intervals should have been used. Based on the FHI announcement, I think the result is not significant, but the decision was made because the Moderna vaccine is now redundant in Scandinavia.
jbergstroem 5y ago
In sweden, this seems to be the "recommendation" from the government: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2021/oktober/anvandningen-av-modernas-vaccin-mot-covid-19-pausas-for-alla-som-ar-fodda-1991-och-senare/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhets... ..which links to https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/sv/nyheter/covid-19-mrna-vaccinerna-comirnaty-och-spikevax-risk-for-myokardit-och-perikardit https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/sv/nyheter/covid-19-mrna-vac... ..which in turn seems to point here: https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/4a0b25/globalassets/dokument/nyheter/dhpc/comirnaty-spikevax-dhpc-2021-07-19.pdf https://www.lakemedelsverket.se/4a0b25/globalassets/dokument... ..which references EMA & EES which are European that states "145 cases of myocarditis out of 177M dosis of Comirnaty". Have anyone else found a better source?
- mschild 5y ago
  Comirnaty is the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine. Spikevax the Moderna one. I dont know Swedish. Does it provide any numbers for Spikevax?
  - CookiesOnMyDesk 5y ago
    only numbers are from july, 19 cases of each *carditis after 20m doses.
    - barney54 5y ago
      But how many doses are in men under 30? That is the right subpopulation to look at, not the entire population.
      - CookiesOnMyDesk 5y ago
        Ask the Swedes, not me.
  - thepasswordis 5y ago
    Can somebody please get moderna and pfizer a new person to come up with these names?
schmichael 5y ago
Indeed. A little clicking, and I couldn't find numbers either. Luckily raw numbers aren't all that necessary for decision making because: > The risk of myocarditis is substantially increased for those who contract COVID-19, and vaccination is the best way to protect against this. So even if only Moderna is available to you, you are still safer getting it than COVID-19. I think these countries are just making sure that each demographic gets the safest vaccine for them which is great.
Gibbon1 5y ago
They don't because if they put numbers and also described the usual clinical course of these cases it would show the issue to be a nothing burger. The numbers I saw were about 1.0 per 100k were hospitalized for 2-3 days. No deaths and half those recovered completely after a month. I haven't seen anyone say this but that's probably the same risk of myocarditis you get from the flu. And 100 times lower than the risk from covid.
mikeyouse 5y ago
The study is preliminary - but they're being cautious and recommending young men switch to the Pfizer vaccine since the risk of myocarditis is lower. But just so people don't get the wrong idea, they're finding that the risk of myocarditis in young men who've actually caught Covid is something like 6x more likely than in those who received the vaccine: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v... So if you're a young male, the correct response to avoiding myocarditis (among all of the other downsides that come with actually catching Covid) is to get vaccinated with the Pfizer or J&J shots.
- nicoburns 5y ago
  As a young male who got myocarditis from both covid and the vaccine, the other thing that's worth knowing that I wish I'd known earlier: if you do get it, then the best thing to do to prevent long-term damage is to avoid exercise completely (potentially for 6 months to a year, or until you've been cleared by a doctor).
  - __blockcipher__ 5y ago
    Just out of curiosity, did you get COVID first and then decided to get the vaccine later on? Or was it the other way around? I'm guessing the former - I've had friends who had COVID and their doctors still advised them to get the vaccine - and find it quite troubling if so. We've known for so long now how robust natural immunity is - and before we "knew for sure" any sane person's priors would still assume natural immunity works the way it does for any other respiratory pathogen - yet there was a concerted institutional/media push to act as if immunity literally didn't exist, or the more subtle form that immunity might exist but that vaccine immunity is "better". Not that it's super relevant but the friends I mentioned were mid 20's and in fine health, no weird immune disorders or anything, so the fact that their doc advised the vaccine was frankly just negligence in my book.
    - basch 5y ago
      One answer I can think of is if you caught covid and then got regeneron. A month later, after the regeneron wears off, you’d probably want to build up your body’s immunity.
that_lurker 5y ago
Taken and translated from THL's website[1] (Finnish Institute for Healt and Welfare ) "in its study, THL has examined the incidence of myocardial inflammation requiring hospitalization in different age groups. In boys and men aged 12–39 years, a total of 6 cases of myocarditis have been reported in Finland per 381,000 doses of Comirnaty and less than 5 cases per less than 49,000 doses of Spikevax in Finland. A total of less than five cases of myocarditis have been reported in girls and women of the same age, and the prevalence of myocarditis in women and girls after vaccination has not differed from that normally seen in the general population." The study is still ongoing in Finland, but as the early results seem to match with the other nordic countries the limitation has been placed. [1] (Page is only in Finnish still as it was written today). https://thl.fi/fi/-/thl-ohjeistaa-tarjoamaan-alle-30-vuotiaille-miehille-vain-comirnaty-koronarokotetta-spikevaxin-yhteytta-sydanlihastulehdukseen-arvioidaan https://thl.fi/fi/-/thl-ohjeistaa-tarjoamaan-alle-30-vuotiai...
yes_man 5y ago
https://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/thl-monitoring-myocarditis-after-covid-19-vaccination-are-rare-in-finland-and-also-occur-in-those-infected-with-covid-19 https://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/thl-monitoring-myocarditis-... According to Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, an additional 4 cases per 100k men under the age of 30. They also note that having covid is a risk factor for myocarditis. So perhaps still worth it to take the shot. Possibly they are doing this to put out the antivax wildfires in social media by reacting to statistical information about risks. So as to show that when there are scientifically established risks, there will be reaction to that as well.
- nabla9 5y ago
  It seems like if you take everything into account, taking the vaccine might not provide any benefit from men under 30. Any medical intervention must be beneficial to justify the use. If it's so and so, or equal risk, then it's not done. EDIT: The alternative is not stopping vaccinations. Men under 30 are given Pfizer.
  - neuronexmachina 5y ago
    Based on the data in the study linked below, the risk for myocarditis among COVID-19 patients is 0.146%, and 0.009% among people without COVID-19 (study was done pre-vaccine). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm > During March 2020–January 2021, the risk for myocarditis was 0.146% among patients with COVID-19 and 0.009% among patients without COVID-19. Among patients with COVID-19, the risk for myocarditis was higher among males (0.187%) than among females (0.109%) and was highest among adults aged ≥75 years (0.238%), 65–74 years (0.186%), and 50–64 years (0.155%) and among children aged <16 years (0.133%).
    - nabla9 5y ago
      The alternative is not stopping vaccinations. Men under 30 are given Pfizer.
  - tptacek 5y ago
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citilife 5y ago
The long-term studies I am way more curious about. Heart damage typically can cause lasting effects. Many people may have heart damage and not even know it. I'm not making any specific claims, just that it's unknown. Here's an explanation of how a heart cannot or very slowly repairs: https://www.uclahealth.org/heart/cardiac-repair-regeneration https://www.uclahealth.org/heart/cardiac-repair-regeneration
- guywhocodes 5y ago
  I personally know three persons that got some degree of chest pain. I had worse symptoms than they did, now 3 months later I can let my heart rate hit maximum, which is significantly lower than before. My cardiologist says that without an MRI he can't diagnose me and my insurance did not cover it. It's quite likely imo that there is a relevant diagnosis not being made because it's inaccessible.
  - AndrewBissell 5y ago
    > My cardiologist says that without an MRI he can't diagnose me and my insurance did not cover it. It's quite likely imo that there is a relevant diagnosis not being made because it's inaccessible. I would suggest you report it to VAERS, but everyone's decided that data should just be ignored so what's the point?
    - phonypc 5y ago
      Nobody says it should be ignored. You just can't take the reports at face value and use any loose connection to a condition as proof positive that the condition was present and associated with the vaccine. It's meant for identifying possible correlations for further study, not relaying the true rate of events.
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l1ambda 5y ago
https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ontario-now-recommending-against-moderna-vaccine-for-men-18-24-years-old https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/ontario-now-recommend... "Ontario now recommending against Moderna vaccine for men 18-24 years old...This comes after public health officials determined there is a 1 in 5,000 risk of myocarditis — a form of heart inflammation — following a second dose of the Moderna vaccine."
- vkou 5y ago
  Which is, by the way, still multiple orders of magnitude lower than the risk of myocarditis from catching COVID.
  - RustyRussell 5y ago
    Can you provide data? Here's the weekly Ontario report on vaccine side effects: at the end is the myocarditis/pericarditis breakdown: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/health-topics/immunization/vaccine-safety https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/health-topics/immuniza...
    - vkou 5y ago
      > Among patients with COVID-19, the risk for myocarditis was higher among males (0.187%) than among females (0.109%) and was highest among adults aged ≥75 years (0.238%), 65–74 years (0.186%), and 50–64 years (0.155%) and among children aged <16 years (0.133%). > In adjusted analyses, patients with COVID-19 had, on average, 15.7 (95% CI = 14.1–17.2) times the risk for myocarditis compared with patients without COVID-19; Okay, so it's 'just' an order of magnitude higher. Unfortunately, myocarditis is one of the least serious side effects of COVID. If you have a choice between a vaccine that offers 95% protection against COVID, and a 1 in 5000 chance of myocarditis, and one that offers 90% protection against COVID, and a zero chance of myocarditis, you're better off taking the former. You're also far better off taking either one, compared to being unvaccinated. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm
tablespoon 5y ago
>> "A Nordic study involving Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark found that men under the age of 30 who received Moderna Spikevax had a slightly higher risk than others of developing myocarditis," he said. > I find it frustrating that we’re still not putting numbers on statements like this in news articles. This article on the same general topic has numbers: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/06/health/covid-vaccine-children-dose.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/06/health/covid-vaccine-chil... > A New Vaccine Strategy for Children: Just One Dose, for Now > Myocarditis, a rare side effect, occurs mostly after the second dose. So in some countries, officials are trying out single doses for children.... > Officials in Hong Kong as well as in Britain, Norway and other countries have recommended a single dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for children ages 12 and older — providing partial protection from the virus, but without the potential harms occasionally observed after two doses.... > Advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reviewed data on myocarditis in June, and unanimously voted to recommend the vaccine for children ages 12 and older, saying the benefits far outweighed the risk. > Agency research has estimated that for every million vaccinated boys ages 12 to 17 in the United States, the shots might cause a maximum of 70 myocarditis cases, but they would prevent 5,700 infections, 215 hospitalizations and two deaths. Studies have also shown that the risk of heart problems after Covid-19 is much higher than after vaccination.... > The latest analysis, which was published on Wednesday in The New England Journal of Medicine, found that the incidence of myocarditis after vaccination in Israel was highest among males aged 16 to 29. About 11 of every 100,000 males in that age group developed the condition a few days after being vaccinated, a rate higher than most earlier estimates. (The risk was negligible in females of any age.) That article also had some interesting discussion about reducing vaccination for young people because of myocarditis. Whether that's a wise decision or not really depends on how well the country in question has contained COVID.
robomartin 5y ago
Well my kid was in the hospital for two weeks with myocarditis. One of 700 cases in the US at the time. Not sure what the number might be up to now. He is fine. Interestingly enough, my father was in the hospital at the same time being monitored for a potential heart attack. The were both going through exactly the same testing and treatment. In other words, my young son was, among other things, being tested for the heart attack enzyme. In this case it was the Pfizer vaccine. The rest of the family, myself included, got Moderna. The issue --with kids-- seems to have been that the second dose had to be lower than what they were/are giving them. I haven't followed developments since he got out. He had a three month checkout and all was well. While our entire family is vaccinated, this event made me realize that we must not vilify those who have doubts. Yes, of course, I wish everyone was vaccinated. And yet, I have to ask myself: What would we had done had we known there was a potential for our young kid to actually suffer a heart attack because of the vaccine? As small as the probability of something like that might be, I am not sure how I would answer the question. My wife is an MD. Her opinion is we probably would have given them just one dose. Still, it's easy to say things like that after the fact.

notoclotshot 5y ago

Geez, as the real data behind the vaccine slowly drips out I'm happier and happier I didn't inject an experimental drug in me. Especially considering all the "studies" thus far have taken place during summer when covid isn't an issue anyways. What we've learned since their release: - the spike protein is toxic - vaccine immunity is narrow, binding to only a few epitopes on the virus - immunity wanes quickly - IgA antibodies aren't produced by the vaccine, causing vaccinated to still suffer infection - heart inflammation becoming more and more common - the mrna accumulated literally all over the body, not just the muscle as we were initially told - manufacturing of these vaccines are subject to frequent contamination And that's just to name a few. Glad I wasn't dumb enough to take one for a disease that's not a risk to most healthy young people.

mfer 5y ago

So, they are halting the Moderna vaccine due to myocarditis and recommending the Phizer shot for younger men. Yet, Israel found the Phizer shot lead to myocarditis issues [0]. I wonder what the numbers are and what data decision makers are looking at. [0] https://archive.is/3bZoH/ https://archive.is/3bZoH/ (NYTimes)

chippiewill 5y ago
Moderna and Pfizer are both very similar and likely cause Myocarditis for the same reason. However it's also likely that people will have a worse reaction to Moderna (if they have one) because the vaccine doses are far larger than with Pfizer. This is born out in the statistics that show that while we see Myocarditis for both vaccines, the prevalence seems to be higher for Moderna.
mach1ne 5y ago
I assume that the numbers reported (one comment quoted 6/39000) are actually lowballed, since you constantly hear about cases where symptoms obviously relevant to covid/vaccines are dismissed as not connected. I would guess decisionmakers take the reluctance to report into account when estimating the true risk factors.
- kspacewalk2 5y ago
  >I would guess decisionmakers take the reluctance to report into account when estimating the true risk factors. I would guess they do no such thing.
polack 5y ago
Sweden have had 125 reported cases of myocarditis for people that have used Pfizer and 44 that used Moderna. But then there have been 10,6 million shots of Pfizer administered and only 1,8 million shots of Moderna. So quite clear that the risk is higher for Moderna, even though the risk is low for both of them.
- Antipode 5y ago

mytoothhurts 5y ago

Geez, as the real data behind the vaccine slowly drips out I'm happier and happier I didn't inject an experimental drug in me. Especially considering all the "studies" thus far have taken place during summer when covid isn't an issue anyways. What we've learned since their release: - the spike protein is toxic - vaccine immunity is narrow, binding to only a few epitopes on the virus - immunity wanes quickly - IgA antibodies aren't produced by the vaccine, causing vaccinated to still suffer infection - heart inflammation becoming more and more common - the mrna accumulated literally all over the body, not just the muscle as we were initially told - manufacturing of these vaccines are subject to frequent contamination And that's just to name a few. Glad didn't take the jab for a disease that's not a risk to most healthy young people.

tomp 5y ago

In 6 months we've gone from "vaccines are 100% safe and well tested and there's no chance of long-term side effects whatsoever" to 3 out of 4 "main" vaccines being not recommended for different groups of people. Great for science, not so great for trust in public officials & experts.

542458 5y ago
I feel you’re taking the wrong message away here - the countries in question have more than enough doses, and can pick and choose between the vaccines. None of the vaccines are more dangerous than covid itself, but the government is recommending that (since they have an adequate supply) their people shouldn’t bother with the ones that are potentially extremely marginally more risky. If the “best” vaccine didn’t exist, they’d still be recommending the next best one.
- tssge 5y ago
  What about those who have natural immunity? As someone who has recovered from covid before the vaccines, it feels unfair to be forced to take the vaccine when the risks seem to outweigh the benefits. No one seems to even notice the people with natural immunity, we are always skipped when having a discussion about vaccines.
- tomp 5y ago
  There's a lot of nuance that you're not taking into account. For example, previously infected benefit minimally from getting vaccinated (they're already better protected than non-infected but vaccinated individuals). The risks of covid are strongly correlated with age and healthiness, as are risks of vaccines (e.g. affects particularly young men). There's many variables that individuals can take into account when deciding what to do. Note that I'm mainly criticising anti-scientific propaganda sold as science, and forced vaccinations, not vaccination itself (in general or specifically for COVID).
  - Delk 5y ago
    It seems the number of myocarditis cases in Finland has been in the order of a few cases out of a few hundred thousand vaccinated in the specific demographic, so perhaps approximately one per 100,000, give or take. That's still not far from 100 percent, and the 100 percent might be substantially more correct than "not 100 % safe" in terms of the impression it gives. Of course nothing is actually 100 percent, in anything, ever, but sometimes it's practically close enough from an epidemiological point of view that some people probably find it easier to round things. Better than saying that there may be some rare risk of this or that, because some people are going to get hung up on that, and that might cause more harm than good. Public communication about these kinds of risks is anything but easy to get right.

orf 5y ago

~2.7 cases of myocarditis per 100k. Deadly car crashes in the US is about 11 deaths per 100k (between 3.3 and 25 when looking at states directly, 18.2 worldwide average). That's not even counting indirect deaths caused by car fumes. So to the person posting the same thing from new accounts about vaccines being a great risk to yourself, I hope you take driving and crossing the road as seriously as you take getting vaccinated because that's faaar more dangerous (especially if you live in Wyoming).

DantesKite 5y ago
The risk profiles are different, since one is multiplicative and one is additive. One car crash won't cause 100,000 car crashes, but an infectious disease can.
- 542458 5y ago
  The post you’re replying to is a bit unclear - it’s talking about the risk of contracting myocarditis, not COVID.
yabones 5y ago
The rate might be higher, but the cluster effect is completely different. If you're in traffic, the only people you can "spread" a car accident to are the other cars around you. But with infectious disease, you have a chance of spreading it to everybody you contact, all day every day. You can't sit near somebody on the bus who transmits car accidents to you. Nor can you get in a car accident because your child caught it from school from a classmate whose parent got it from somebody they work with. Statistically it might make sense, but that's not how the real world works. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- orf 5y ago
  Sure, I agree, but I was referring to 2.7 cases of myocarditis per 100k after taking the vaccine. The cluster effect is still different but not as wildly different as comparing rates of COVID per capita to car crashes.
- 5y ago

jimbob45 5y ago

> The cases of myocarditis and pericarditis were "generally mild," and individuals "tend to recover within a short time following standard treatment and rest," Pfizer said in a statement. This is the closest I got to any of the study. If you can link me to the actual study paper, you’re my hero.

georgekv 5y ago
Don't have nordic study but here's NEJM Israeli one from the other day: "In our study, definite or probable cases of myocarditis among persons between the ages of 16 and 19 years within 21 days after the second vaccine dose occurred in approximately 1 of 6637 male recipients" https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109730?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article&utm_source=pocket_mylist#article_discussion_sc3 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109730?query=re...

mytoothhurts 5y ago

To the mods censoring me: I hate you all

bsaul 5y ago

All people here pointing that you still should get vaccinated because side effects of vaccines are still less likely : Let's not forget that : 1-some european country are already past the delta variant wave (so you have to ponderate by the chance of actually getting infected) 2- we still have no idea what the new variant of the next wave of covid is going to look like, when it is going to happen, and if the vaccine is going to offer any protection. as an example, living in France, my personal choice atm is to not get the vaccine... ( and in all cases i'll definitely check for antibodies before getting a shot, in case i already got infected without knowing)

solarkraft 5y ago

Is it rational? The same concerns have been raised about the BioNTech vaccine, yet that is still perfectly in use.

gorwell 5y ago

A lot of comments here asking for specific numbers and making comparisons to other risks. That's exactly how one should be looking at this. What I don't understand is why people don't apply this same critical thought process to the risks of Covid? For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? If you said >50%, you would be in good company. It's the most common answer. But what's the actual risk? <1%. When vaccinated, the risk is even lower! Yet people are still more afraid of Covid than myriad other risks we accept on a daily basis and don't even think about, and certainly don't rearrange our lives around. For whatever reason, we are avoiding a basic cost benefit analysis and vastly overestimate the risks. "92% overstate the risk that unvaccinated people will be hospitalized, and 62% overstate the risk for vaccinated people" https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimates-covid-hospitalization-risk.aspx https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimat...

sergiotapia 5y ago
It's heretical to say such things and "anti-science" as branded by the media. The fact that California now wants kids to get the vaccine is bonkers to me. Kids don't even feel this shit if they catch it. Pharmaceutical companies must be paying big bucks to the politicians in that state.
- javagram 5y ago
  Covid is more dangerous to kids than chicken pox, we still vaccinate kids for chickenpox though. Hundreds of children have died of Covid-19. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Focus-on-Ages-0-18-Yea/nr4s-juj3 https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Focus-...
  - makomk 5y ago
    Not all countries vaccinate kids for chickenpox. The UK still doesn't for example. I'm pretty sure it's easily the least necessary of the childhood vaccinations.
  - Jensson 5y ago

kaitai 5y ago

Note a cultural memory component: in Finland (and Norway, Sweden) there was a rash of narcolepsy after the swine flu vaccinations of 2009-2010. Gov't was criticized for not reacting quickly enough (to be fair, side effect was not observed until vaccinations were ~complete, and so it was all just rearguard action after that). Lots of memory, bad press about kids being damaged. There is a cultural-political component here beyond the science. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/03/studies-confirm-h1n1-vaccine-narcolepsy-link-finnish-kids https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/03/studies-...

dingdongbing 5y ago
There is not a political component to this, we (Sweden) have probably the most objective and science based Health system in the world. For this reason we get criticized by other nations for not having lockdowns and not wearing masks, there is no indication that these actually work and they probably cause more harm than good. Our leaders have shown great competence to follow the science and not make a knee-jerk reaction to what France and America are doing. If Moderna is clearly worse than Pfizer, then why shouldn't we stop it?
- nojokes 5y ago
  Except your scientist(s) were wrong this time and killed 10 times more people by not implementing quick and mild restrictions and letting the disease spread. Sure, what US and France did was also different kind of wrong but it does not make you right. Only thing that has been life saving is very quick reaction that limits the spread at its infancy. Also of course quick vaccination.
  - dingdongbing 5y ago
    >Except your scientist(s) were wrong this time and killed 10 times more people by not implementing quick and mild restrictions and letting the disease spread. This is the dumbest hunk of shit I've ever heard. We have the exact same death rates and infection rates as the rest of Europe.

thepasswordis 5y ago

In nordic countries these vaccines are restricted. In the US, they're required. Very odd.

iammisc 5y ago
That's because the US is descending into authoritarianism and the nordic countries value freedom, economic and civil.
- bserge 5y ago
  Oh please.
Delk 5y ago
They're restricted in the sense that the health authorities stopped recommending a specific covid-19 vaccine for a particular demographic. That demographic -- young males under 30 -- are recommended and given a vaccine from another vendor (practically Pfizer) instead. That's rather different than the impression you might get from "these vaccines being restricted", or something similar.
- dingdongbing 5y ago
  That's actually not true, people who got the first dose of moderna will not get a second one, and it's being stopped for all persons under 30, not just males. In practice it will be stopped for everyone above 30 as well. /Swede
neuronexmachina 5y ago
Also interesting to note that each of the Nordic countries also has a vaccination rate higher than the US's: https://covid19.healthdata.org/finland?view=vaccinations&tab=compare https://covid19.healthdata.org/finland?view=vaccinations&tab...
nojokes 5y ago
Moderna vaccine is not authorized for 12-17 olds in US. Has never been, so no need to restrict it.

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georgekv 5y ago

From NEJM Israeli study on Pfizer: "In our study, definite or probable cases of myocarditis among persons between the ages of 16 and 19 years within 21 days after the second vaccine dose occurred in approximately 1 of 6637 male recipients and in 1 of 99,853 female recipients." Moderna shot is worse then for boys. What again is the rush to vaccinate the lowest risk age group? https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109730?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article&utm_source=pocket_mylist https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109730?query=re...

silicon2401 5y ago
this is exactly why the dogmatic culture around vaccines is toxic. Nobody should be forced to take a vaccine before the side effects are even known.
- nicce 5y ago
  You really don’t have time to wait 5 years for ”complete” results. People don’t understand basic math and threat modeling. How likely you are going to get covid and how serious it can be (for you and others)? How likely you get something serious from vaccine (only you) but most likely avoid serious covid (and spread it less to others)? Of course, forced vaccine might look bad from very selfish perspective, but benefits from bigger picture are obvious even with side effects.
- nojokes 5y ago
  And how are you going to find these rare events when you do not use the vaccine?
lightsighter 5y ago
> What again is the rush to vaccinate the lowest risk age group? Because they still contribute to chain of transmission to the most vulnerable members of society, likely in a disproportional way since younger members of society tend to socialize more. Fighting a virus is a collective action. In order to stop transmission to the vulnerable members, you need to cut edges along all paths through the graph. Furthermore, additional spread, even among healthy people with no side effects, increases the probability of mutations that lead to more fit variants capable of causing even more sickness and death.

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noetic_techy 5y ago

The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly the more we learn and the more fervent the mandates become. We pulled the swine flu vaccine for way less back in 2010, I think it was 12 cases of GBS only! The fact that I know of people who have either had mycarditis AND clots tells me the rate is much higher then reported by VAERS. The reason damn near everyone except for adamant anti-vax have the perception that VACCINE=SAFE/GOOD is that 93% of experimental candidates are rejected and it takes 10-15 years of trails and data to get full approval. It's the reason you are confident giving it to your own children the safety standards are so stringent. These comparisons to your chances of car accidents and being struck by lighting are totally bogus, you need to compare the data to past vaccines! And yet we think we got this mRNA/Adenovirus vector formula right on the first try times 3 different brands with 2 years of reduced trials? That's all gone out the window for the sake of the pandemic emergency and that's fine as long as the choice is clear and consensual, let those who want it take the risk, but don't mandate it. The VAERS data is abysmal, worse then the past 50 years of all vaccine combined, and yet people are now in the mode of dismissing the VAERS system entirely because its self reported, with no alternative to fall back to! The FDA even had the option of setting up a separate system for covid vaccine adverse event reporting and rejected it. Fine, then VAERS it is! The only system we have ever had to judge this by. At what point is it ethical to hand someone a long list of side effects that occur at x50+ higher rates then past vaccines and then say "but you must take this or you can't work". I think in 10 years, we will see this technology as higher risk but much faster turn around times compared to traditional vaccines. Just be up front about it and let people choose.

AndrewBissell 5y ago
Actually what happened with the 2010 swine flu vaccine was that people developed narcolepsy starting about a year after the first shots were administered (many of them to people who were never at particularly high risk from the swine flu itself). It took about another year after those symptoms first arose for authorities to acknowledge the link to Pandemrix.
iratewizard 5y ago
Here's my vaccine anecdata. My wife and I are at the age when everyone we know is starting to have kids. My wife and I got pregnant on the first try, and 3 of her other friends had similar easy success. All 4 unvaccinated. On the vaccinated side of her friends there are two miscarriages, one stillbirth, one who has been trying since June, one trying much longer than that, and one that we think has been trying for a while but hasn't announced it to the group. If these were caveman times and those people were drinking from a different stream, we would tell them not to drink from it. 3/3 success stories vs. 3 traumatic failures and two or three infertility issues.

marcus_holmes 5y ago

ffs, what have we come to? This is HN, where smart, educated, science-literate people congregate. Reading the comments, I'm ashamed of us. We're better than this. Read the actual f*cking papers people. Not the YouTube videos, not the weird-ass political shit on FB. Not the New York Times, or even Reuters. The actual papers. We've all got SciHub (thankfully!), there's no excuse. If you don't think you're educated enough to grok the actual studies then you're probably not educated enough to understand the issues, and you probably shouldn't be contradicting the experts. Unless, of course, you think this is all a conspiracy, in which case I have a bridge to sell you...

jamps 5y ago
Keep cool friend. It gives me headaches as well but... Everybody is entitled to their stupid opinion. So are we :) But I have to react to : > and you probably shouldn't be contradicting the experts. As you know, expert themselves can disagree, and have strong evidence to defend their sides. For example, Niels Bohr and Einstein had massive disagreements, both of them are references, and had convincing arguments. In the end you got to choose what you want to believe in with your intellect and your guts. And if you have neither, the New York Times it is haha

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hanklazard 5y ago

A mouse model linking the myocarditis risk of covid mRNA vaccines to accidental IV injection: https://www.researchhub.com/paper/1266246/intravenous-injection-of-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-can-induce-acute-myopericarditis-in-mouse-model https://www.researchhub.com/paper/1266246/intravenous-inject...

yumraj 5y ago

But want Pfizer vaccine also found to be linked to myocarditis and pericarditis in a very small percentage of younger people, primarily males. OTOH, even COVID is linked to higher percentage of both, and other issues..

m0zg 5y ago

It's being limited only for kids and youth. Simple truth our media is studiously trying to sweep under the rug - almost nobody below age of 30 dies from COVID. Compared to all cause mortality the numbers are laughable and ridiculous. Fewer than 500 kids died _with_ COVID since the beginning of the pandemic in the US. Not _of_, _with_. Under these circumstances, there's simply no justification to give these experimental vaccines to children. And yes, Moderna is still experimental, and it says so in the leaflet they give out when you go for a vaccination. It seems to me that cooler heads are prevailing in at least some European countries, at least until Pfizer/Moderna lobbyists wake up and deliver large suitcases of cash to the decision makers.

rc2634 5y ago
We know the seasonal flu kills thousands of kids every year and there are safe and effective vaccines for it that have existed for a long time now, yet we never mandated it for kids. But somehow, fewer than 500 deaths with COVID over almost two years means we have to mandate experimental vaccines that haven’t existed for that long for kids. It makes no sense whatsoever.

Kosirich 5y ago

@dang the reuters title is misleading, please correct The correct one would be in case of Denmark: "Denmark limits Moderna Covid-19 vaccine to over 18s".

tim333 5y ago

Some stats on myocarditis - apparently about 1 in 50,000 get it from the vaccine but in one study 1 in 45 get it from covid so you are better getting vaxxed. The Scandinavians are switching from Moderna to Pfizer for the moment rather than stopping vaccination. (stats https://whyy.org/articles/myocarditis-and-the-covid-19-vaccine-what-to-know-about-rare-heart-inflammation/ https://whyy.org/articles/myocarditis-and-the-covid-19-vacci...)

ctrlp 5y ago

It's probably not so helpful to look at absolute numbers of cases rather than risk reduction. If men under 30 already have a very low risk from Covid and there is an alternate vaccine available, then this policy makes a lot of sense. This is the sort of caution we used to expect from our drug regulators.