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EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

638 points by xendo 5y ago

threwaway4392 5y ago
Sanctions appear tough but will isolate the Belarusian people even more. The EU could up their game by recognizing the democratically elected Belarusian individuals as the rightful government in exile, and propose to kick-start EU integration talks with them. That would send a strong support message to the Belarusian people.
- capableweb 5y ago
  > Sanctions appear tough but will isolate the Belarusian people even more. Dictators only caring about themselves and isolating their own people even more than before? Color me surprised. > The EU could up their game by recognizing the democratically elected Belarusian individuals as the rightful government in exile Unlikely to happen, the EU has a strong history of not getting involved in the democratic process no matter how ugly it gets. Look at the "reaction" (or rather lack of reaction) from various referendums in EU countries and also abroad, and you'll see their default stance when it comes to "helping spread democracy". I think they carefully try to avoid ending up in the same position of the US, who has meddled in so many elections worldwide that it's hard to even keep track of them anymore.
matkoniecz 5y ago
Nice that something more than strongly worded letters was done.
- liaukovv 5y ago
  I'm not sure how much more it is
  - matkoniecz 5y ago
    For start, it has some real - though minimal - impact, unlike typical strongly worded letters.
    - liaukovv 5y ago
      I'm not entirely sure belavia is even profitable in the first place
      - matkoniecz 5y ago
        Hopefully now it will deteriorate even more.
        Symbiote 5y ago
        They just lost roughly ⅓ of their destinations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Belavia_destinations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Belavia_destinations
      - ajuc 5y ago
        The only things in Belarus that are profitable are IT companies. Which BTW brings up a question of big international corporations outsourcing to authoritarian countries. Should they be punished financially for being complicit in breaking human rights?
        liaukovv 5y ago
        The only way for bourgeoisie revolution to occur is to have bourgeoisie. A dictator would be perfectly happy flogging peasants until the end of time, see north korea for reference.
        deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - dmos62 5y ago
      I'd say banning Belorusian airlines after Belorus hijacked a plane (and kidnapped passengers) is like having your kid kidnapped and proclaiming that the kidnapper isn't welcome in your house. Edit: s/Belorussian/Belorusian
      - 5y ago
- planetis 5y ago
  You mean the European hypocrisy when they call out "state piracy"? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident
  - mam3 5y ago
    It's not and it was never about fairness. It's about strength.
  - matkoniecz 5y ago
    1) I am not supporting also this one, especially as it was a sad case of vassalisation 2) Refusing to allow use of airspace is different from hijacking plane and abducting people. If someone is using "state piracy" only for the second one it is entirely defensible. EDIT: 3) at least in this case I can say that my country (Poland) was not complicit, though probably mostly because they were not asked by USA to do so. 4) Plane was not forced to land, but landed due to technical malfunction > pilots requested emergency landing due to issues with fuel level indicators and thus inability to confirm sufficient amount of fuel to continue flight Though problem was triggered by France, Italy, Spain and Portugal refused to allow transit.
    - planetis 5y ago
      > 1) I am not supporting also this one, especially as it was a sad case of vassalisation Don't get me wrong I agree. > 2) Refusing to allow use of airspace is different from hijacking plane and abducting people. If someone is using "state piracy" only for the second one it is entirely defensible. Not much different the plane was forced to land in Austria. Also this was a diplomatic mission, unlike commercial flights they had absolutely NO jurisdiction to act like this.
      - matkoniecz 5y ago
        Plane was not forced to land, but landed due to technical malfunction > pilots requested emergency landing due to issues with fuel level indicators and thus inability to confirm sufficient amount of fuel to continue flight Though problem was triggered by France, Italy, Spain and Portugal refused to allow transit. There is difference between hijacking plane using fighter jet and refusal to allow transit. Both with blatant lies as a pretext.
- publicola1990 5y ago
  They hardly have any airlines in Belarus, may be only one Belavia may be of any significant size.
  - rich_sasha 5y ago
    Flying over Belarus might be a good income for the country - no longer. An interesting shift of the last decade or so of sanction wars is that sanctions must be targeted against the regime, not the people. Otherwise it's a bit of an own goal - you give the regime a bogeyman to point at. As such, this seems like a good, pragmatic type of sanction. Few regular Belarusians will feel the impact, but it does strike at the regime, even if it seems like small change.
    - pydry 5y ago
      I'm not sure if Belarussians having to cancel their holidays to the West and going to Crimea instead is going to have the desired effect of driving sympathies among Belarussians toward the west. Moreover the people who actually like Lukashenko will probably be pretty indifferent to this. They weren't planning on flying to Berlin any time soon. I'm almost certain Putin will jump on the chance to have alternate routes to Russian tourist destinations opened up (possibly even subsidized, like he did for flights to Crimea). I'm starting to wonder if Lukashenko/Putin wasn't counting on this kind of knee jerk reaction. If sanctions were on the cards anyway, with this stunt they got to pick the timing, reason and type. Edit : not a popular analysis, it seems...
      - rightbyte 5y ago
        Ye you don't want to isolate dictatures. That prevents change. Just fly around the country from now on and don't punnish the people ...
      - mopsi 5y ago
        The desired effect is to increase pressure on Lukashenko and I'm sure every holidaymaker with a ruined trip knows very well whose stupid stunt is to blame for it.
- 5tefan 5y ago
  On the contrary. Our political elites are unable to find political and diplomatic answers. Resorting to bans and sanctions is weak. Inability and unwillingnes to talk to each other will make the people suffer. The ultimate suffering is civil unrest and war. The big picture to me is a very dark one: The world is preparing for war. This is just another side note to heigthen tensions.
  - rob74 5y ago
    There is an appropriate answer for every act. In this case, if Belarus forces an airliner flying over their territory to divert to Minsk with a made-up bomb threat, and even sends a fighter jet to make sure that the pilots get the message, the appropriate answer is bans and sanctions - anything less than that would be seen as weak.
  - mopsi 5y ago
    > Resorting to bans and sanctions is weak. No, endless talk with no action is weak and pathetic. Mafia states will shit on you if you show unwillingness to stand for yourself. Biden lifted sanctions on Nord Stream and three days later you have this stunt. Let that be a lesson. Every incoming president has had such trial by fire.
    - 5tefan 5y ago
      They call for blood. You call for blood. This won't lead to less blood. As I stated in my comment and as you casually confirmed. I don't want blood at all.
      - mopsi 5y ago
        > They call for blood. You call for blood. This won't lead to less blood. Yes it will, because Belarus nor Russia are in a position for any serious confrontation. As soon as you call their bluff, they will retreat, as they have done many times before. Their power comes from YOUR FEAR and unwillingness to react appropriately to their provocations. Both Rusia and Belarus are mafia states that serve as piggy banks to oligarchs, who belong to the global elite. When their status, access and financial wellbeing takes a hit from sanctions, oligarchs will tell their public-facing puppets to tone down and seek better relations. Oligarhs are not hermits like Kim from the Best Korea or leaders of Middle Eastern theocracies. Their families live in the west, because Russia is a dangerous shithole; they own luxury apartments in NYC and houses in the best parts of London. They spend their holidays in Los Angeles, Southern France and elsewhere. Their kids and wives want to live like the rich people they see on Instagram and in Hollywood movies. They are not willing to give this westernized life up, and that's the string to pull them by: identify key power brokers and their inner circles and target them mercilessly.
- PeterisP 5y ago
  It is still largely symbolic - in last few months Lukashenka has implemented various travel restrictions with the west (both for political reasons and also to limit emigration/brain-drain as e.g. various IT companies were relocating Belarus employees to Poland/Lithuania/etc) and there was a feeling that he might have restricted flights or the ability to fly anyway - so now the same result gets achieved not by the prohibitions of the regime but can be blamed on the "evil neighbours". It's perhaps somewhat similar to sanctions against Russia which were followed by Russia-imposed sanctions on importing e.g. cheese, which has the benefit of improving trade balance (as people aren't consuming imported products) and any discontent of the people is blamed on the western sanctions; the regime wants to ban certain things but it has less impact on people's satisfaction if the ban can be blamed on everyone else.
- EugeneOZ 5y ago
  Yeah, Belavia already considering mass layoffs. If somebody is happy that workers of Belavia will be punished instead of Lukashenko - maybe they need to think more.
thepangolino 5y ago
Is there such a thing as flags of convenience for planes?
- allendoerfer 5y ago
  EU planes can still fly there and back to the EU.
  - kofejnik 5y ago
    >> At a meeting in Brussels, the leaders of the 27 member states also told EU airlines not to fly over Belarus, and promised further economic sanctions.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - allendoerfer 5y ago
      They told them to, but airlines are free to do whatever they want.
      - matkoniecz 5y ago
        Obviously, the next step is to make it illegal to fly over Belarus. Or prosecute airlines for endangering pasengers by doing this. Or refuse to approve any flights with flightpath in Belarusian airspace.
      - luch 5y ago
        Air France, Lufthansa, airBaltic & SAS already said they would not fly over belarus anymore
        tremon 5y ago
        And Dutch KLM (the other half of Air France) happily announced they would continue to fly over Belarus, but they changed their tune after a sharp condemnation from our prime minister.
helsinkiandrew 5y ago
I wasn't sure how big Belarusian airlines was, but their summer 2021 timetable shows a number of flights to Europe: https://en.belavia.by/webroot/delivery/files/TimeTable_en_s21.pdf https://en.belavia.by/webroot/delivery/files/TimeTable_en_s2... They appear to have 30 planes split between Boeing and Embraer: https://en.belavia.by/company/air_fleet/ https://en.belavia.by/company/air_fleet/
- chmod775 5y ago
  According to their website they're already cancelling flights and apparently their customer support is overloaded with calls right now. So there's that.
- iso1631 5y ago
  A lot of planes fly Belarus - Egypt, which means flying through Greek/Cyprus airspace. Will be interesting if Ukraine and/or Turkey responds, as flights from Belarus to Istanbul would be effected too. Ukraine (and Turkey) are part of Eurocontrol, but not part of the EU. Obviously Belarus will still be flying east to Russia
  - shantara 5y ago
    Ukraine just announced they are stopping all air traffic with Belarus from tomorrow on.
thu2111 5y ago
But how often do Lukashenko and his circle actually fly out of Belarus anyway? He already had no problem with closing his own borders before anyway, so it's not like this is going to seem like a strong move to him and it only really hurts the Belarusian people.
- toyg 5y ago
  They sanctioned individuals involved in the decision too. And at some point, the Belarusian people will have to take responsibility for their leaders. I'm not saying it should happen today or that they should start a civil war, but they should think about ways to change.
  - zibzab 5y ago
    Bro, you don't seem to understand the concept of a dictatorship. You think people were fine until now but not being able to fly to Spain suddenly makes them see their error?
  - mcky 5y ago
    You should read up on the opposition movement in Belarus before making such insensitive suggestions. Dissidents are regularly arrested, beaten and even raped, yet many turn out week after week to protest. Consider if you'd be brave enough to do what they already do first.
- dandanua 5y ago
  Dictators never rule alone, even though they suck all the attention. They have supporters and enablers. For example, a pilot of that MiG-29 fighter jet could blow a passenger plane if ordered so. Their police killed and tortured people that were on mass protests. Lukashenko doesn't have exclusive responsibility over this.
  - mopsi 5y ago
    > Their police killed and tortured people that were on mass protests. And someone who beat and raped peaceful protesters just a month ago may walk by you in Venice beach, holding ice cream in one hand and leading his daughter with the other. And maybe he even has an older son or daughter who goes to UCLA or Stanford on the money he's pillaged. That's really common. Current sanctions target only the very top, but violent regimes have layers and layers of collaborators and their family members who come to the west to enjoy freedoms they deprive others of in their country. This should have much more focus. Let them be confined to the environment they create.
mam3 5y ago
Why is there no one talking about some sort of military response like literally building a base at the bielorussian border with fighter planes that would prevent such equally military actions like that.
- agilob 5y ago
  BelaRUS Russia has military zone (Kaliningrad) close to Poland and Lithuania, escalating military conflict with Belarus will make Russia to respond.
  - mam3 5y ago
    So what, you are scared ? Military action was taken, we should answer with military as well.
  - gspr 5y ago
    Exactly how would Russia respond militarily? Except perhaps attempts to destabilize Ukraine even more, what cards can they really play here?
- Sideyon 5y ago
  ? There are NATO bases all over the world including the Belorussian border.
  - zokier 5y ago
    For reference, I think the closest thing would be polish air base in Lask, which has both polish F-16s and US aircraft stationed. It's about 400 km from belarussian border and 700 km from Minsk.
- StavrosK 5y ago
  Spend billions building a base to do what? Invade Belarussian airspace (an act of war) to guard the passenger plane if this incident happens again?
  - 5y ago
stanpinte 5y ago
This is not exact, the EU ban decision is not taken yet. see link here: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/05/24/european-council-conclusions-on-belarus-24-may-2021/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021... "- calls on the Council to adopt the necessary measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airports of flights operated by such airlines;" decision has still to be made by the council, and then - to my understanding - implemented by all member states one by one. It's a typical example of media interpretation of facts. See here https://en.belavia.by/news/4674378/ https://en.belavia.by/news/4674378/ -> Belavia confirms UK and FR banned, but it was their decision.
- matkoniecz 5y ago
  Thanks, thanks for revealing that I should trust journalism even less than I thought. I now noticed that > The EU has decided to ban Belarusian airlines from European skies has "decided" not "implemented" or "started", so technically it is matching reality, even if misleading.
  - calpaterson 5y ago
    "Cock-up before conspiracy": problem in this case is that journalists do not understand EU process. In fairness to them it is not straightforward and in any field of politics something is said to be "done" at many different junctures: for example when it is politically inevitable, when it is informally agreed, once it has been formally agreed and then, of course, once it has actually been effected.
    - stanpinte 5y ago
      my comment was without political meaning : I have relatives who need to fly to minsk from EU on Saturday for family reasons, I'm just monitoring the legal status.
  - iso1631 5y ago
    The BBC story is https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57236489 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57236489 With a headline of "EU agrees new Belarus sanctions after plane arrest" It states > The EU has decided to ban Belarusian airlines from European skies after a flight was diverted to Minsk on Sunday and a dissident journalist arrested. The specific release from the meeting: - calls on the Council to adopt the necessary measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airports of flights operated by such airlines; Seems reasonable reporting to me, the EU has decided to do it, and is now implementing that decision. Further in the article > The UK has suspended the operating permit for Belarusian state airline Belavia, and EU leaders have called on member states to take similar action. That the HN submitter changed the headline is hardly a damning indictment of journalism (The headline of the .com version was the same at 6:27 GMT) https://web.archive.org/web/20210525062723if_/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57236489 https://web.archive.org/web/20210525062723if_/https://www.bb...
varispeed 5y ago
All bark no bite. Assuming they got help from Russia, the gas pipeline (Nord Stream 2) is still going as planned. Germany must be sweating right now, how to look like as if they are actually committed to any sanctions, but in reality to not compromise their little joint project with Russia.
- 5ersi 5y ago
  Actually the one sweating should be Russia, because on the long haul (10-20 years), Germany is going to be energy independent due to massive investments (also subsidies) into renewable energy. Most of the countries that largely depend on oil/gas exports (Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc..) are going to be facing a major socioeconomic crises in the next decades.
  - newdude116 5y ago
    "Actually the one sweating should be Russia, because on the long haul (10-20 years), Germany is going to be energy independent due to massive investments (also subsidies) into renewable energy." ROTFL Edit: Yes, please feel free to show your ignorance and lack of basic math skills and downvote this comment. For all others: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ I am sure Russia is not scared. Who should be scared is the world and who is scared is me but such dumb comments.
    - Hikikomori 5y ago
      Interesting and fun read, but don't see how it relates to the near future, and even longer term. Energy demands likely closely follows population growth, which has been trending down for the last 50 years or so. Once it levels out so will energy demands, with some time lag as some countries catches up with standard of living. Unless your argument is that we will be unable to meet our energy demands at that point in time even with large amounts of renewables and nuclear I don't really see your point, even so Germany can likely meet their demands using renewables in the near future and go back to using nuclear at some later point in time.
therusskiy 5y ago
EU gets to appear "tough" while, unfortunately, this is only going to hurt people of Belarus. This is only going to help Lukashenko's narrative that the West is plotting against Belarus.
- 5ersi 5y ago
  Most people are not stupid, they understand the situation. Also most of the people do not believe Lukashenko's narratives any more. At this point is not about him convincing his people to believe him, it's about using force to remove those who are brave enough to fight him - this is actually what this kidnapping was about.
- xamolxix 5y ago
  What would the alternative be? Do nothing?
  - jopsen 5y ago
    Spend money on a BBC Belarusian comedy channel... Hehe.. Broadcast from neighbouring countries. It's probably not very rational, but it would be fun :)
    - Symbiote 5y ago
      There's already a BBC News Russian service: https://www.bbc.com/russian https://www.bbc.com/russian / https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_News_Russian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_News_Russian
  - dkirill 5y ago
    Sanction the elite
    - gspr 5y ago
      They are already sanctioned.
- romanovcode 5y ago
MichaelMoser123 5y ago
i think what is not quite understood is the show aspect of the whole story: the secret services of Belarus (and probably allied Russia as well) are trying to awe the population of their countries into obedience by setting an example: 'look, we can do everything'. Interesting that this is exactly the behavior that one would see from some street gang, it's not what one would expect from a state. interesting detail: some civil rights activists in Russia are taking this as an open threat: https://gulagu.net/news/2021-05-24-746.html https://gulagu.net/news/2021-05-24-746.html The gulagu.net project is stopping all activities inside Russia for fear of reprisals, since "the capture and arrest of Protasevich is bearing witness of the fact that Lukashenko and Putin are now no longer even trying to hide anything, and that they are ready to act out open reprisals against those they disapprove of. ... We understand that no limitations exist any more and that the secret services are literally ready to do everything." "... с целью захвата и ареста Протасевича свидетельствует о том, что Лукашенко и Путин теперь уже даже не скрывают ничего и готовы действовать открыто с целью организации расправы с неугодными ... Мы понимаем, что более никаких ограничений не существует и спецура готова в буквальном смысле на всё." i have the feeling that this will be a good test case; someone is trying to test the resolve and responses of the European Union. Interesting what will happen next (in other words: someone might be doing some integration testing here).
sneak 5y ago
The part of TFA that seems to be glossed over in the comments here is that Belarus released a video in the last 12 hours of him confessing to "crimes", which was presumably extracted under physical duress.
- MayeulC 5y ago
  His girlfriend was arrested together with him, it's not hard to imagine a way to pressure him into confessing.
ceilingcorner 5y ago
Unfortunately, the real losers of this situation will be the Belarusian people, many of whom have immigrated to nearby countries like Poland or Germany. They will now (probably) be unable to visit family members easily, as flights will have to reroute through Istanbul or Russia. Pretty much the same situation with Iran. Actions intended to punish an unjust government mostly just hurt their citizens.
- visarga 5y ago
  It's group guilt and punishment, a dehumanizing practice that ignores personal circumstances and is OK with collateral damage. A blunt tool.
  - frostburg 5y ago
    What would you suggest? Nothing, since economic sanctions have the same issue? "Humane" poisonings of involved politicians using exotic isotopes and/or nerve agents? Airstrikes and betting on Putin folding?
  - intricatedetail 5y ago
    Such tyranny exist because people allow it. Do you think nations should not bear responsibility for _their_ governments?
    - ceilingcorner 5y ago
      By that logic, millions of people from dozens of countries in the Middle East and Africa should be punished for the actions of their government. Exactly how does that help anyone?
      - Dylan16807 5y ago
        Do you also think it's a problem to fine companies when they do bad things?
        5y ago
bellyfullofbac 5y ago
Wonder what the geo-political consequences could be. What if Big Brother Putin now says all EU planes are banned from flying over Russia. Or what if Russian ATC are ordered to route planes flying from the east to Belarussian airspace. Of course there's probably a bit of freedom to choose routes by pilots, but if I were Putin I'd just say (or tell my ATC to say): "those routes are closed because of military training, your only available route is here through Belarussia"
- kilroy123 5y ago
  I think Russia charges a lot of money for planes to fly over their airspace to extract as much money as possible. I doubt they'll do this as they make a lot of money from this.
- peteretep 5y ago
  > What if Big Brother Putin now says all EU planes are banned from flying over Russia For what gain?
  - bellyfullofbac 5y ago
    He's been described as a very petty man. For the gain of maybe a move that inconveniences all the EU airlines enough that they'll lobby their governments to not implement this ban. An EU climbdown would be a delicious victory for him. But the way politics work, nobody ever climbs down anything.
- ratww 5y ago
  Putin has lots of issues, but he's way more pragmatic than that.
- gspr 5y ago
  > Wonder what the geo-political consequences could be. What if Big Brother Putin now says all EU planes are banned from flying over Russia. Well, who would really lose out if the EU and the US were to retaliate with the same action? Russia, or EU+US? I would wager the latter would revert to the transpolar routes of the cold war, while the former would be almost entirely shut out of its most lucrative markets. No way Putin would do this.
nomercy400 5y ago
I am surprised Hungary agreed. And Poland. The governments in those nations are not shy to touch on the freedoms of their population, and often disagree with the EU when the EU points these things out. Also Poland being directly next to Belarus will affect their relations.
- formerly_proven 5y ago
  Poland-Belarus relations are icy at best, since Belarus is a sock-puppet of Russia, while Poland is strongly aligned with the US.
  - jakub_g 5y ago
    Poland has been strongly anti-Lukashenka for a long time, and since 2007 broadcasts a Belarusian-language satellite TV channel (Belsat). It's probably the only non-regime-controlled Belarusian speaking TV. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belsat_TV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belsat_TV
- fsloth 5y ago
  Fear of Russia is the few things Hungary and Poland and rest of most of EU have in common.
  - chx 5y ago
    Ever heard of Paks 2?
- intricatedetail 5y ago
  Sanctions are only targeted at Belarus (When it's clear they got Russian assistance). Isolation of Belarus throws them into stronger Kremlin influence and that is precisely why Poland and Hungary were allowed by Putin to vote for those "sanctions".
- ceilingcorner 5y ago
  Disagreeing with the EU != equivalent to an authoritarian regime. Politics is more complicated than Good Guys vs. Bad Guys.
tremon 5y ago
Only half-related detail, the European track cycling championships are in Minsk next month: http://www.uec.ch/en/event/149/2021-uec-track-elite-european-championships http://www.uec.ch/en/event/149/2021-uec-track-elite-european... The Dutch cycling union is now recommending its athletes not to compete there.
- tweetle_beetle 5y ago
  I'm not familiar with all of the bureaucracy and hierarchies of the organising bodies, but it looks like a Belarussian and a Russian were elected to the management board of the UEC in March [1]. It will be interesting to see how that affects decisions. [1] https://minskeurotrack.com/en/news/news/20210329-the-chief-of-belarusian-cycling-federation-became-a-member-of-the-uec-management-board https://minskeurotrack.com/en/news/news/20210329-the-chief-o...
  - getlawgdon 5y ago
    WADA multi-year ban of Russia -- the entire country -- prohibits them from international competition. The very few Russian athletes who pass special criteria can compete stateless. Why would track cycling allow any Russian official near a position of authority, especially in a strength/explosiveness sport?
    - thecupisblue 5y ago
      Because for any "council", "federation", "organisation", "committee", the sport is not about the sport, but about money, power and influence of people in the aforementioned group.
- alkonaut 5y ago
  The IIHF World Hockey Championships should have taken right now in Minsk and Riga. They are currently taking place only in Riga. I'm sure no one regrets that decision right now. Unfortunately Belarus were allowed to participate.
  - 5y ago
k1m 5y ago
Glenn Greenwald's latest piece on this: > What Belarus did, while illegal, is not unprecedented. The dangerous tactic was pioneered by the same U.S. and E.U. officials now righteously condemning it. https://greenwald.substack.com/p/as-anger-toward-belarus-mounts-recall https://greenwald.substack.com/p/as-anger-toward-belarus-mou...
- peteretep 5y ago
  I don’t think the equivalence really holds: “while flying over Austria ... they were told by France, Spain and Italy that their permission to fly over those countries’ air space had been rescinded”
- scoopertrooper 5y ago
  Glenn Greenwald has just gone a bit funny these days. When he's not repeating propaganda straight out of RT (like this), he's minimising the crimes committed on 6 January. https://greenwald.substack.com/p/as-the-insurrection-narrative-crumbles https://greenwald.substack.com/p/as-the-insurrection-narrati... https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-false-and-exaggerated-claims https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-false-and-exaggerated-c... https://www.rt.com/russia/524731-belarus-ryanair-similar-incidents/ https://www.rt.com/russia/524731-belarus-ryanair-similar-inc...
  - api 5y ago
    I think he’s been a fascist all along. Same with Wikileaks, which was never neutral. There is a need for a neutral leak platform, preferably one that takes humans entirely out of the loop and therefore removes all possibility of bias or strategic timing of releases. Maybe something involving cryptographic time locks? While Assange is a problematic character ultimately the problem isn’t him so much as the presence of any secretive cabal of humans in that position.
EugeneOZ 5y ago
Whom they are punishing? Elites use private jets and will just laugh at that. Regular Belarusians will have difficulties, yes.
- capableweb 5y ago
  I guess that's up to who is interpreting the conclusion (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/05/24/european-council-conclusions-on-belarus-24-may-2021/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021...) It says: > calls on the Council to adopt the necessary measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airports of flights operated by such airlines; Now I don't know how private jets usually works, but isn't there some company responsible for the flight itself? Every plane in existence needs to file a flight plan, and I presume that if the flights origin is from Belarus and owned by a Belarus entity, they'll get denied to enter the other airways west/north to Belarus.
  - EugeneOZ 5y ago
    So in the worst case they’ll use Lufthansa or Emirates? Okay.
    - capableweb 5y ago
      Not sure how Emirates are relevant, that airline is from the UAB so can't really control their actions exactly. But when it comes to Lufthansa (since they are German), seems unlikely they'll be able to use Lufthansa as using the airspace of Belarus was just advised against... From the same link as before (give it a read: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/05/24/european-council-conclusions-on-belarus-24-may-2021/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021...) > calls on all EU-based carriers to avoid overflight of Belarus
      - EugeneOZ 5y ago
        It doesn't matter, they’ll use private jets. You are trying to argue with the little details and missing the whole point. It will not hurt the elites. In the most worst case (if every EU airline will decide to not serve Belarusians), they’ll fly to Russia first and use some russian plane. Or just will use a car - what a tragedy, lol. And it's the ONLY response from EU leaders. Pathetic cowards. Lukashenko now got confirmation that such actions will not be punished.
mcky 5y ago
Worth noting in all of this that Belarus recently closed their land borders to citizens [1], under the guise of COVID, but in reality to stop people leaving. The only way out was flying from Minsk, which is now even less of an option if there are no flights to the EU. As others have said these sanctions will likely do more to harm the repressed citizens of the regime than Lukashenko [1] https://www.bnt.eu/cs/zpravy/pravni-novinky/3137-belarus-introduces-ban-on-leaving-the-country?layout=bnt:news https://www.bnt.eu/cs/zpravy/pravni-novinky/3137-belarus-int...
- teekert 5y ago
  "As others have said these sanctions will likely do more to harm the repressed citizens of the regime than the Lukashenko" I feel that that is true for almost all sanctions everywhere sadly. The Russians love their children too. In fact we have to really think hard on who they benefit, short and long term. Making markets more independent of each other is only making a war more likely. If goods don't cross borders armies will. What is a better alternative? I don't know, but perhaps targeted educational pieces, like scientific papers to educate populations? Yeah it sounds like propaganda, but perhaps one can add methods to verify claims or something? Show how exactly a policy is detrimental to the population in question? It's a hard problem, I'm not claiming otherwise.
  - BurningFrog 5y ago
    > In fact we have to really think hard on who they benefit It will benefit air travellers whose planes will not get hijacked by the Belarus air force.
    - pavel_lishin 5y ago
      Forbidding non-Belarus based flights from flying over Belarus would accomplish that.
      - _ZeD_ 5y ago
        also treating this "incident" as a war act
anotheryou 5y ago
What an arbitrary sanction. What do Belarusian airlines have to do with any of this? The only value of picking airlines over anything else must be of symbolic nature. Unless maybe you see it as "balancing the competition" if other airlines loose the flights to belarus and have to use more fuel avoiding the airspace.
ddddq 5y ago
As a european (german) I can say, that this is mostly just show. Why? For once, only Belarus Airline will be suspended to fly in the EU. The other european airlines will still fly to and over Belarus, giving them money. For example, Lufthansa still wants to fly to Belarus and doesn't seem to care at all about solidarity with other european airlines. Money talks louder. And then people who don't have the time to research often don't know that Belarus is a important economical partner for german firms. The trade with Germany makes up around 5% of the GDP of Belarus and many german firms are (in)directly supporting Lukaschenko and his regime. It just isn't really known to the public. Therefor, if Germany really wanted it, big and impactful sanctions would easily be possible. The airline banning isn't really meaningful to Lukaschenko at all, they will rebrand the airline and fly from Moscow as Russia is their most important ally. And the thing is, that Germany still has the same problems with other trade partners. Germany still sells weapons to Turkey, Saudi-Arabia or Azerbaijan. Even if this countries did work or are currently working against european partners and neighbours. Even if these countries are violating human rights. A subject that Germany likes to teach to other european countries. Germany has the problem, that their economy is really connected and dependent on states that are violating human rights, are working and fighting against EU member states and are even starting to dictate german firms what they can and should do to be able to do their business (Belarus, Saudi-Arabia, Azerbaijan). It's levels above the USA and worse. One of the biggest firm in Germany, VW, is cooperating with Chinas ethnical cleansing and using Uyghurs working force as cheap labour. This or they just coincidentally build their new factories just hundreds of meters away from the concentration camps and Uyghurs are just coincidentally walking from the factory to the concentration camp.
- GekkePrutser 5y ago
  Turkey is still part of NATO. It would be a bit strange if NATO partners are supposed to defend one another but can't sell each other weapons :) Agree re. Saudi Arabia though. I'm surprised they still do that after Khasoggi.
  - ddddq 5y ago
    I also agree that NATO members should sell and exchange knowledge. But Turkey is acting more and more hostile, also working against US interests and even against the interests of Greece, a important EU member state. That's why the US will open now new military bases in Greece. I just wanted to show, that Germany tries to sell and make profits from both sites. And this will be a problem in the future, if parts of your economy are depending on, what someone would call, hostile states to western interests. It's already now a problem with the EU-Russia political conflict, where Germany is the main reason for the passivity of the EU regarding Russia and their aggressivity against eastern european nations. Also a reason why Poland trusts the USA way more on this topic than Germany or Western Europe.
beyondcompute 5y ago
It feels like the ban hits ordinary citizens more. The rich and the powerful (including politicians) won’t be affected as much. :(
- dzhiurgis 5y ago
  Irritate citizens enough and they will start revolting. Tho life there is bad enough that they ain't got time for that when your instinct calls for survival.
  - axiosgunnar 5y ago
    > Irritate citizens enough and they will start revolting. Like in Cuba?
  - beyondcompute 5y ago
    I don’t know, I don’t buy the “let’s make people suffer so that they’ll revolt” logic. I don’t think that EU should make Belarus citizens suffer. And ideally there should be better internationally-sanctioned ways to replace disfunctional governments and (what’s more important) institutions.
    - dzhiurgis 5y ago
      Know better way? Let me know if the comments!
atemerev 5y ago
So, now every Belarusian who didn't agree with the regime and wanted to leave the country will be stuck there.
- pessimizer 5y ago
  The purpose of sanctions is to torture the civilian population until they are willing to tacitly support the revolution you're trying to foment.
  - atemerev 5y ago
    There were peaceful mass protests every day since August, with millions of participants in some days. It didn’t help. Local police and state security tracks, jails and tortures the protest leaders and journalists. Or do you want a violent revolution instead?
- MichaelMoser123 5y ago
  Wouldn't they be able to cross the boarder into Lithuania by land?
  - atemerev 5y ago
    Nope. There are border controls.
    - MichaelMoser123 5y ago
      transit via Moscow airport?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
iansowinski 5y ago
I think that Giedroyc Doctrine is worth mentioning here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giedroyc_Doctrine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giedroyc_Doctrine
Sporktacular 5y ago
Politically convenient amnesia is on full display again: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/24/opinion/belarus-plane-protasevich.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/24/opinion/belarus-plane-pro... The US pressured Austria to do the same - for a head of state's airplane - while looking for Snowden. It's not whataboutism - both are abuses of power, but the sanctimony is just unbearable.
- omgtehlion 5y ago
  Yeah, but at least this have one minor difference: in Austria it was a government plane, lukashenka hijacked a civil plane.
- Sporktacular 5y ago
  May lose access due to lost password - if so will continue as Sporktacular2
Aeolun 5y ago
I don’t understand how any of this stuff is even ok. If any random person had done this, the police would be after them to arrest them for kidnapping, but because it’s a nation state doing this the only thing that happens is closed airspace? I feel like there should be something we can do that wouldn’t be a slap on the wrist.
- matwood 5y ago
  Welcome to the real world. Geopolitics are...complicated.
- frereubu 5y ago
  It's not. Lukashenko is bankrolled by Putin. You react too aggressively to Lukashenko and you're not just taking on Belarus, you're taking on Russia. Then Russia starts throttling gas supplies to Europe and so on and so on. As the sibling comment says, geopolitics are complicated.
  - Aeolun 5y ago
    I think it’s really simple. It’s like walking away from the bully because you don’t like to fight (or are afraid you’ll get hurt), they’ll just do it again next time since the only thing that was reinforced was that there are no consequences. It’s just larger in scale.
- scoopertrooper 5y ago
  It's not okay, but international relations are not like personal relations. There is no police force to arrest the guilty. It's really the law of the jungle with a few marginal-to-non-enforceable 'laws' sprinkled on top.
- reissbaker 5y ago
  Because this is a state actor, you can't just send the police after them: they have fighter jets (and it was a fighter jet that grounded the plane). You have to ask whether you're willing to go to war, or impose collective punishment on the people of Belarus via something like sanctions. The EU has already taken diplomatic steps for previous offenses like barring Lukashenko personally from the EU, and the US has banned loans to the Belarussian government in the past as well — and those bans remain in place today. There are probably more diplomatic levers to pull, but TBH none of the existing ones have seemed to do anything. States are okay at enforcing laws within their borders without massive death or total economic destruction, but don't seem to be very effective at enforcing much inside of someone else's borders barring those options.
Giorgi 5y ago
Yes, that will show em
- akie 5y ago
  What do you suggest instead?
h3cate 5y ago
I suppose they'll be banning us airlines too for forcing the Bolivian PMs plane to land in Vienna when looking for Snowden?
75dvtwin 5y ago
One might, briefly, struggle with this question: Can a cabal of morally bankrupt bribe-takers wielding selective-outrage-justice weapons against own citizens (Marine Le Pen, Trump, and their supporters) be scolding another, less-presentable Dictator? And the Obama admin behavior [1] with the attempted Snowden plane intercept, is not much different either, I agree.. [1] https://www.france24.com/en/20130703-bolivia-president-evo-morales-airplane-rerouted-vienna-snowden https://www.france24.com/en/20130703-bolivia-president-evo-m...
liberty-bzmh 5y ago
既存の事実に基づくと、これは明らかな陰謀です。
garfieldnate 5y ago
That statement from Joe Biden really irks me, given the treatment of whistle blowers, most famously Edward Snowden, during his last administration.

638 points by xendo 5y ago

Sanctions appear tough but will isolate the Belarusian people even more. The EU could up their game by recognizing the democratically elected Belarusian individuals as the rightful government in exile, and propose to kick-start EU integration talks with them. That would send a strong support message to the Belarusian people.

capableweb 5y ago
> Sanctions appear tough but will isolate the Belarusian people even more. Dictators only caring about themselves and isolating their own people even more than before? Color me surprised. > The EU could up their game by recognizing the democratically elected Belarusian individuals as the rightful government in exile Unlikely to happen, the EU has a strong history of not getting involved in the democratic process no matter how ugly it gets. Look at the "reaction" (or rather lack of reaction) from various referendums in EU countries and also abroad, and you'll see their default stance when it comes to "helping spread democracy". I think they carefully try to avoid ending up in the same position of the US, who has meddled in so many elections worldwide that it's hard to even keep track of them anymore.

matkoniecz 5y ago

Nice that something more than strongly worded letters was done.

liaukovv 5y ago
I'm not sure how much more it is
- matkoniecz 5y ago
  For start, it has some real - though minimal - impact, unlike typical strongly worded letters.
  - liaukovv 5y ago
    I'm not entirely sure belavia is even profitable in the first place
    - matkoniecz 5y ago
      Hopefully now it will deteriorate even more.
      - Symbiote 5y ago
        They just lost roughly ⅓ of their destinations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Belavia_destinations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Belavia_destinations
    - ajuc 5y ago
      The only things in Belarus that are profitable are IT companies. Which BTW brings up a question of big international corporations outsourcing to authoritarian countries. Should they be punished financially for being complicit in breaking human rights?
      - liaukovv 5y ago
        The only way for bourgeoisie revolution to occur is to have bourgeoisie. A dictator would be perfectly happy flogging peasants until the end of time, see north korea for reference.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
  - dmos62 5y ago
    I'd say banning Belorusian airlines after Belorus hijacked a plane (and kidnapped passengers) is like having your kid kidnapped and proclaiming that the kidnapper isn't welcome in your house. Edit: s/Belorussian/Belorusian
    - 5y ago
planetis 5y ago
You mean the European hypocrisy when they call out "state piracy"? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident
- mam3 5y ago
  It's not and it was never about fairness. It's about strength.
- matkoniecz 5y ago
  1) I am not supporting also this one, especially as it was a sad case of vassalisation 2) Refusing to allow use of airspace is different from hijacking plane and abducting people. If someone is using "state piracy" only for the second one it is entirely defensible. EDIT: 3) at least in this case I can say that my country (Poland) was not complicit, though probably mostly because they were not asked by USA to do so. 4) Plane was not forced to land, but landed due to technical malfunction > pilots requested emergency landing due to issues with fuel level indicators and thus inability to confirm sufficient amount of fuel to continue flight Though problem was triggered by France, Italy, Spain and Portugal refused to allow transit.
  - planetis 5y ago
    > 1) I am not supporting also this one, especially as it was a sad case of vassalisation Don't get me wrong I agree. > 2) Refusing to allow use of airspace is different from hijacking plane and abducting people. If someone is using "state piracy" only for the second one it is entirely defensible. Not much different the plane was forced to land in Austria. Also this was a diplomatic mission, unlike commercial flights they had absolutely NO jurisdiction to act like this.
    - matkoniecz 5y ago
      Plane was not forced to land, but landed due to technical malfunction > pilots requested emergency landing due to issues with fuel level indicators and thus inability to confirm sufficient amount of fuel to continue flight Though problem was triggered by France, Italy, Spain and Portugal refused to allow transit. There is difference between hijacking plane using fighter jet and refusal to allow transit. Both with blatant lies as a pretext.
publicola1990 5y ago
They hardly have any airlines in Belarus, may be only one Belavia may be of any significant size.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  Flying over Belarus might be a good income for the country - no longer. An interesting shift of the last decade or so of sanction wars is that sanctions must be targeted against the regime, not the people. Otherwise it's a bit of an own goal - you give the regime a bogeyman to point at. As such, this seems like a good, pragmatic type of sanction. Few regular Belarusians will feel the impact, but it does strike at the regime, even if it seems like small change.
  - pydry 5y ago
    I'm not sure if Belarussians having to cancel their holidays to the West and going to Crimea instead is going to have the desired effect of driving sympathies among Belarussians toward the west. Moreover the people who actually like Lukashenko will probably be pretty indifferent to this. They weren't planning on flying to Berlin any time soon. I'm almost certain Putin will jump on the chance to have alternate routes to Russian tourist destinations opened up (possibly even subsidized, like he did for flights to Crimea). I'm starting to wonder if Lukashenko/Putin wasn't counting on this kind of knee jerk reaction. If sanctions were on the cards anyway, with this stunt they got to pick the timing, reason and type. Edit : not a popular analysis, it seems...
    - rightbyte 5y ago
      Ye you don't want to isolate dictatures. That prevents change. Just fly around the country from now on and don't punnish the people ...
    - mopsi 5y ago
      The desired effect is to increase pressure on Lukashenko and I'm sure every holidaymaker with a ruined trip knows very well whose stupid stunt is to blame for it.
5tefan 5y ago
On the contrary. Our political elites are unable to find political and diplomatic answers. Resorting to bans and sanctions is weak. Inability and unwillingnes to talk to each other will make the people suffer. The ultimate suffering is civil unrest and war. The big picture to me is a very dark one: The world is preparing for war. This is just another side note to heigthen tensions.
- rob74 5y ago
  There is an appropriate answer for every act. In this case, if Belarus forces an airliner flying over their territory to divert to Minsk with a made-up bomb threat, and even sends a fighter jet to make sure that the pilots get the message, the appropriate answer is bans and sanctions - anything less than that would be seen as weak.
- mopsi 5y ago
  > Resorting to bans and sanctions is weak. No, endless talk with no action is weak and pathetic. Mafia states will shit on you if you show unwillingness to stand for yourself. Biden lifted sanctions on Nord Stream and three days later you have this stunt. Let that be a lesson. Every incoming president has had such trial by fire.
  - 5tefan 5y ago
    They call for blood. You call for blood. This won't lead to less blood. As I stated in my comment and as you casually confirmed. I don't want blood at all.
    - mopsi 5y ago
      > They call for blood. You call for blood. This won't lead to less blood. Yes it will, because Belarus nor Russia are in a position for any serious confrontation. As soon as you call their bluff, they will retreat, as they have done many times before. Their power comes from YOUR FEAR and unwillingness to react appropriately to their provocations. Both Rusia and Belarus are mafia states that serve as piggy banks to oligarchs, who belong to the global elite. When their status, access and financial wellbeing takes a hit from sanctions, oligarchs will tell their public-facing puppets to tone down and seek better relations. Oligarhs are not hermits like Kim from the Best Korea or leaders of Middle Eastern theocracies. Their families live in the west, because Russia is a dangerous shithole; they own luxury apartments in NYC and houses in the best parts of London. They spend their holidays in Los Angeles, Southern France and elsewhere. Their kids and wives want to live like the rich people they see on Instagram and in Hollywood movies. They are not willing to give this westernized life up, and that's the string to pull them by: identify key power brokers and their inner circles and target them mercilessly.
PeterisP 5y ago
It is still largely symbolic - in last few months Lukashenka has implemented various travel restrictions with the west (both for political reasons and also to limit emigration/brain-drain as e.g. various IT companies were relocating Belarus employees to Poland/Lithuania/etc) and there was a feeling that he might have restricted flights or the ability to fly anyway - so now the same result gets achieved not by the prohibitions of the regime but can be blamed on the "evil neighbours". It's perhaps somewhat similar to sanctions against Russia which were followed by Russia-imposed sanctions on importing e.g. cheese, which has the benefit of improving trade balance (as people aren't consuming imported products) and any discontent of the people is blamed on the western sanctions; the regime wants to ban certain things but it has less impact on people's satisfaction if the ban can be blamed on everyone else.
EugeneOZ 5y ago
Yeah, Belavia already considering mass layoffs. If somebody is happy that workers of Belavia will be punished instead of Lukashenko - maybe they need to think more.

thepangolino 5y ago

Is there such a thing as flags of convenience for planes?

allendoerfer 5y ago
EU planes can still fly there and back to the EU.
- kofejnik 5y ago
  >> At a meeting in Brussels, the leaders of the 27 member states also told EU airlines not to fly over Belarus, and promised further economic sanctions.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - allendoerfer 5y ago
    They told them to, but airlines are free to do whatever they want.
    - matkoniecz 5y ago
      Obviously, the next step is to make it illegal to fly over Belarus. Or prosecute airlines for endangering pasengers by doing this. Or refuse to approve any flights with flightpath in Belarusian airspace.
    - luch 5y ago
      Air France, Lufthansa, airBaltic & SAS already said they would not fly over belarus anymore
      - tremon 5y ago
        And Dutch KLM (the other half of Air France) happily announced they would continue to fly over Belarus, but they changed their tune after a sharp condemnation from our prime minister.

helsinkiandrew 5y ago

I wasn't sure how big Belarusian airlines was, but their summer 2021 timetable shows a number of flights to Europe: https://en.belavia.by/webroot/delivery/files/TimeTable_en_s21.pdf https://en.belavia.by/webroot/delivery/files/TimeTable_en_s2... They appear to have 30 planes split between Boeing and Embraer: https://en.belavia.by/company/air_fleet/ https://en.belavia.by/company/air_fleet/

chmod775 5y ago
According to their website they're already cancelling flights and apparently their customer support is overloaded with calls right now. So there's that.
iso1631 5y ago
A lot of planes fly Belarus - Egypt, which means flying through Greek/Cyprus airspace. Will be interesting if Ukraine and/or Turkey responds, as flights from Belarus to Istanbul would be effected too. Ukraine (and Turkey) are part of Eurocontrol, but not part of the EU. Obviously Belarus will still be flying east to Russia
- shantara 5y ago
  Ukraine just announced they are stopping all air traffic with Belarus from tomorrow on.

thu2111 5y ago

But how often do Lukashenko and his circle actually fly out of Belarus anyway? He already had no problem with closing his own borders before anyway, so it's not like this is going to seem like a strong move to him and it only really hurts the Belarusian people.

toyg 5y ago
They sanctioned individuals involved in the decision too. And at some point, the Belarusian people will have to take responsibility for their leaders. I'm not saying it should happen today or that they should start a civil war, but they should think about ways to change.
- zibzab 5y ago
  Bro, you don't seem to understand the concept of a dictatorship. You think people were fine until now but not being able to fly to Spain suddenly makes them see their error?
- mcky 5y ago
  You should read up on the opposition movement in Belarus before making such insensitive suggestions. Dissidents are regularly arrested, beaten and even raped, yet many turn out week after week to protest. Consider if you'd be brave enough to do what they already do first.
dandanua 5y ago
Dictators never rule alone, even though they suck all the attention. They have supporters and enablers. For example, a pilot of that MiG-29 fighter jet could blow a passenger plane if ordered so. Their police killed and tortured people that were on mass protests. Lukashenko doesn't have exclusive responsibility over this.
- mopsi 5y ago
  > Their police killed and tortured people that were on mass protests. And someone who beat and raped peaceful protesters just a month ago may walk by you in Venice beach, holding ice cream in one hand and leading his daughter with the other. And maybe he even has an older son or daughter who goes to UCLA or Stanford on the money he's pillaged. That's really common. Current sanctions target only the very top, but violent regimes have layers and layers of collaborators and their family members who come to the west to enjoy freedoms they deprive others of in their country. This should have much more focus. Let them be confined to the environment they create.

mam3 5y ago

Why is there no one talking about some sort of military response like literally building a base at the bielorussian border with fighter planes that would prevent such equally military actions like that.

agilob 5y ago
BelaRUS Russia has military zone (Kaliningrad) close to Poland and Lithuania, escalating military conflict with Belarus will make Russia to respond.
- mam3 5y ago
  So what, you are scared ? Military action was taken, we should answer with military as well.
- gspr 5y ago
  Exactly how would Russia respond militarily? Except perhaps attempts to destabilize Ukraine even more, what cards can they really play here?
Sideyon 5y ago
? There are NATO bases all over the world including the Belorussian border.
- zokier 5y ago
  For reference, I think the closest thing would be polish air base in Lask, which has both polish F-16s and US aircraft stationed. It's about 400 km from belarussian border and 700 km from Minsk.
StavrosK 5y ago
Spend billions building a base to do what? Invade Belarussian airspace (an act of war) to guard the passenger plane if this incident happens again?
- 5y ago

stanpinte 5y ago

This is not exact, the EU ban decision is not taken yet. see link here: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/05/24/european-council-conclusions-on-belarus-24-may-2021/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021... "- calls on the Council to adopt the necessary measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airports of flights operated by such airlines;" decision has still to be made by the council, and then - to my understanding - implemented by all member states one by one. It's a typical example of media interpretation of facts. See here https://en.belavia.by/news/4674378/ https://en.belavia.by/news/4674378/ -> Belavia confirms UK and FR banned, but it was their decision.

matkoniecz 5y ago
Thanks, thanks for revealing that I should trust journalism even less than I thought. I now noticed that > The EU has decided to ban Belarusian airlines from European skies has "decided" not "implemented" or "started", so technically it is matching reality, even if misleading.
- calpaterson 5y ago
  "Cock-up before conspiracy": problem in this case is that journalists do not understand EU process. In fairness to them it is not straightforward and in any field of politics something is said to be "done" at many different junctures: for example when it is politically inevitable, when it is informally agreed, once it has been formally agreed and then, of course, once it has actually been effected.
  - stanpinte 5y ago
    my comment was without political meaning : I have relatives who need to fly to minsk from EU on Saturday for family reasons, I'm just monitoring the legal status.
- iso1631 5y ago
  The BBC story is https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57236489 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57236489 With a headline of "EU agrees new Belarus sanctions after plane arrest" It states > The EU has decided to ban Belarusian airlines from European skies after a flight was diverted to Minsk on Sunday and a dissident journalist arrested. The specific release from the meeting: - calls on the Council to adopt the necessary measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airports of flights operated by such airlines; Seems reasonable reporting to me, the EU has decided to do it, and is now implementing that decision. Further in the article > The UK has suspended the operating permit for Belarusian state airline Belavia, and EU leaders have called on member states to take similar action. That the HN submitter changed the headline is hardly a damning indictment of journalism (The headline of the .com version was the same at 6:27 GMT) https://web.archive.org/web/20210525062723if_/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57236489 https://web.archive.org/web/20210525062723if_/https://www.bb...

varispeed 5y ago

All bark no bite. Assuming they got help from Russia, the gas pipeline (Nord Stream 2) is still going as planned. Germany must be sweating right now, how to look like as if they are actually committed to any sanctions, but in reality to not compromise their little joint project with Russia.

5ersi 5y ago
Actually the one sweating should be Russia, because on the long haul (10-20 years), Germany is going to be energy independent due to massive investments (also subsidies) into renewable energy. Most of the countries that largely depend on oil/gas exports (Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc..) are going to be facing a major socioeconomic crises in the next decades.
- newdude116 5y ago
  "Actually the one sweating should be Russia, because on the long haul (10-20 years), Germany is going to be energy independent due to massive investments (also subsidies) into renewable energy." ROTFL Edit: Yes, please feel free to show your ignorance and lack of basic math skills and downvote this comment. For all others: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ I am sure Russia is not scared. Who should be scared is the world and who is scared is me but such dumb comments.
  - Hikikomori 5y ago
    Interesting and fun read, but don't see how it relates to the near future, and even longer term. Energy demands likely closely follows population growth, which has been trending down for the last 50 years or so. Once it levels out so will energy demands, with some time lag as some countries catches up with standard of living. Unless your argument is that we will be unable to meet our energy demands at that point in time even with large amounts of renewables and nuclear I don't really see your point, even so Germany can likely meet their demands using renewables in the near future and go back to using nuclear at some later point in time.

therusskiy 5y ago

EU gets to appear "tough" while, unfortunately, this is only going to hurt people of Belarus. This is only going to help Lukashenko's narrative that the West is plotting against Belarus.

5ersi 5y ago
Most people are not stupid, they understand the situation. Also most of the people do not believe Lukashenko's narratives any more. At this point is not about him convincing his people to believe him, it's about using force to remove those who are brave enough to fight him - this is actually what this kidnapping was about.
xamolxix 5y ago
What would the alternative be? Do nothing?
- jopsen 5y ago
  Spend money on a BBC Belarusian comedy channel... Hehe.. Broadcast from neighbouring countries. It's probably not very rational, but it would be fun :)
  - Symbiote 5y ago
    There's already a BBC News Russian service: https://www.bbc.com/russian https://www.bbc.com/russian / https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_News_Russian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_News_Russian
- dkirill 5y ago
  Sanction the elite
  - gspr 5y ago
    They are already sanctioned.
romanovcode 5y ago

MichaelMoser123 5y ago

i think what is not quite understood is the show aspect of the whole story: the secret services of Belarus (and probably allied Russia as well) are trying to awe the population of their countries into obedience by setting an example: 'look, we can do everything'. Interesting that this is exactly the behavior that one would see from some street gang, it's not what one would expect from a state. interesting detail: some civil rights activists in Russia are taking this as an open threat: https://gulagu.net/news/2021-05-24-746.html https://gulagu.net/news/2021-05-24-746.html The gulagu.net project is stopping all activities inside Russia for fear of reprisals, since "the capture and arrest of Protasevich is bearing witness of the fact that Lukashenko and Putin are now no longer even trying to hide anything, and that they are ready to act out open reprisals against those they disapprove of. ... We understand that no limitations exist any more and that the secret services are literally ready to do everything." "... с целью захвата и ареста Протасевича свидетельствует о том, что Лукашенко и Путин теперь уже даже не скрывают ничего и готовы действовать открыто с целью организации расправы с неугодными ... Мы понимаем, что более никаких ограничений не существует и спецура готова в буквальном смысле на всё." i have the feeling that this will be a good test case; someone is trying to test the resolve and responses of the European Union. Interesting what will happen next (in other words: someone might be doing some integration testing here).

sneak 5y ago

The part of TFA that seems to be glossed over in the comments here is that Belarus released a video in the last 12 hours of him confessing to "crimes", which was presumably extracted under physical duress.

MayeulC 5y ago
His girlfriend was arrested together with him, it's not hard to imagine a way to pressure him into confessing.

ceilingcorner 5y ago

Unfortunately, the real losers of this situation will be the Belarusian people, many of whom have immigrated to nearby countries like Poland or Germany. They will now (probably) be unable to visit family members easily, as flights will have to reroute through Istanbul or Russia. Pretty much the same situation with Iran. Actions intended to punish an unjust government mostly just hurt their citizens.

visarga 5y ago
It's group guilt and punishment, a dehumanizing practice that ignores personal circumstances and is OK with collateral damage. A blunt tool.
- frostburg 5y ago
  What would you suggest? Nothing, since economic sanctions have the same issue? "Humane" poisonings of involved politicians using exotic isotopes and/or nerve agents? Airstrikes and betting on Putin folding?
- intricatedetail 5y ago
  Such tyranny exist because people allow it. Do you think nations should not bear responsibility for _their_ governments?
  - ceilingcorner 5y ago
    By that logic, millions of people from dozens of countries in the Middle East and Africa should be punished for the actions of their government. Exactly how does that help anyone?
    - Dylan16807 5y ago
      Do you also think it's a problem to fine companies when they do bad things?
      - 5y ago

bellyfullofbac 5y ago

Wonder what the geo-political consequences could be. What if Big Brother Putin now says all EU planes are banned from flying over Russia. Or what if Russian ATC are ordered to route planes flying from the east to Belarussian airspace. Of course there's probably a bit of freedom to choose routes by pilots, but if I were Putin I'd just say (or tell my ATC to say): "those routes are closed because of military training, your only available route is here through Belarussia"

kilroy123 5y ago
I think Russia charges a lot of money for planes to fly over their airspace to extract as much money as possible. I doubt they'll do this as they make a lot of money from this.
peteretep 5y ago
> What if Big Brother Putin now says all EU planes are banned from flying over Russia For what gain?
- bellyfullofbac 5y ago
  He's been described as a very petty man. For the gain of maybe a move that inconveniences all the EU airlines enough that they'll lobby their governments to not implement this ban. An EU climbdown would be a delicious victory for him. But the way politics work, nobody ever climbs down anything.
ratww 5y ago
Putin has lots of issues, but he's way more pragmatic than that.
gspr 5y ago
> Wonder what the geo-political consequences could be. What if Big Brother Putin now says all EU planes are banned from flying over Russia. Well, who would really lose out if the EU and the US were to retaliate with the same action? Russia, or EU+US? I would wager the latter would revert to the transpolar routes of the cold war, while the former would be almost entirely shut out of its most lucrative markets. No way Putin would do this.

nomercy400 5y ago

I am surprised Hungary agreed. And Poland. The governments in those nations are not shy to touch on the freedoms of their population, and often disagree with the EU when the EU points these things out. Also Poland being directly next to Belarus will affect their relations.

formerly_proven 5y ago
Poland-Belarus relations are icy at best, since Belarus is a sock-puppet of Russia, while Poland is strongly aligned with the US.
- jakub_g 5y ago
  Poland has been strongly anti-Lukashenka for a long time, and since 2007 broadcasts a Belarusian-language satellite TV channel (Belsat). It's probably the only non-regime-controlled Belarusian speaking TV. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belsat_TV https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belsat_TV
fsloth 5y ago
Fear of Russia is the few things Hungary and Poland and rest of most of EU have in common.
- chx 5y ago
  Ever heard of Paks 2?
intricatedetail 5y ago
Sanctions are only targeted at Belarus (When it's clear they got Russian assistance). Isolation of Belarus throws them into stronger Kremlin influence and that is precisely why Poland and Hungary were allowed by Putin to vote for those "sanctions".
ceilingcorner 5y ago
Disagreeing with the EU != equivalent to an authoritarian regime. Politics is more complicated than Good Guys vs. Bad Guys.

tremon 5y ago

Only half-related detail, the European track cycling championships are in Minsk next month: http://www.uec.ch/en/event/149/2021-uec-track-elite-european-championships http://www.uec.ch/en/event/149/2021-uec-track-elite-european... The Dutch cycling union is now recommending its athletes not to compete there.

tweetle_beetle 5y ago
I'm not familiar with all of the bureaucracy and hierarchies of the organising bodies, but it looks like a Belarussian and a Russian were elected to the management board of the UEC in March [1]. It will be interesting to see how that affects decisions. [1] https://minskeurotrack.com/en/news/news/20210329-the-chief-of-belarusian-cycling-federation-became-a-member-of-the-uec-management-board https://minskeurotrack.com/en/news/news/20210329-the-chief-o...
- getlawgdon 5y ago
  WADA multi-year ban of Russia -- the entire country -- prohibits them from international competition. The very few Russian athletes who pass special criteria can compete stateless. Why would track cycling allow any Russian official near a position of authority, especially in a strength/explosiveness sport?
  - thecupisblue 5y ago
    Because for any "council", "federation", "organisation", "committee", the sport is not about the sport, but about money, power and influence of people in the aforementioned group.
alkonaut 5y ago
The IIHF World Hockey Championships should have taken right now in Minsk and Riga. They are currently taking place only in Riga. I'm sure no one regrets that decision right now. Unfortunately Belarus were allowed to participate.
- 5y ago

k1m 5y ago

Glenn Greenwald's latest piece on this: > What Belarus did, while illegal, is not unprecedented. The dangerous tactic was pioneered by the same U.S. and E.U. officials now righteously condemning it. https://greenwald.substack.com/p/as-anger-toward-belarus-mounts-recall https://greenwald.substack.com/p/as-anger-toward-belarus-mou...

peteretep 5y ago
I don’t think the equivalence really holds: “while flying over Austria ... they were told by France, Spain and Italy that their permission to fly over those countries’ air space had been rescinded”
scoopertrooper 5y ago
Glenn Greenwald has just gone a bit funny these days. When he's not repeating propaganda straight out of RT (like this), he's minimising the crimes committed on 6 January. https://greenwald.substack.com/p/as-the-insurrection-narrative-crumbles https://greenwald.substack.com/p/as-the-insurrection-narrati... https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-false-and-exaggerated-claims https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-false-and-exaggerated-c... https://www.rt.com/russia/524731-belarus-ryanair-similar-incidents/ https://www.rt.com/russia/524731-belarus-ryanair-similar-inc...
- api 5y ago
  I think he’s been a fascist all along. Same with Wikileaks, which was never neutral. There is a need for a neutral leak platform, preferably one that takes humans entirely out of the loop and therefore removes all possibility of bias or strategic timing of releases. Maybe something involving cryptographic time locks? While Assange is a problematic character ultimately the problem isn’t him so much as the presence of any secretive cabal of humans in that position.

EugeneOZ 5y ago

Whom they are punishing? Elites use private jets and will just laugh at that. Regular Belarusians will have difficulties, yes.

capableweb 5y ago
I guess that's up to who is interpreting the conclusion (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/05/24/european-council-conclusions-on-belarus-24-may-2021/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021...) It says: > calls on the Council to adopt the necessary measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airports of flights operated by such airlines; Now I don't know how private jets usually works, but isn't there some company responsible for the flight itself? Every plane in existence needs to file a flight plan, and I presume that if the flights origin is from Belarus and owned by a Belarus entity, they'll get denied to enter the other airways west/north to Belarus.
- EugeneOZ 5y ago
  So in the worst case they’ll use Lufthansa or Emirates? Okay.
  - capableweb 5y ago
    Not sure how Emirates are relevant, that airline is from the UAB so can't really control their actions exactly. But when it comes to Lufthansa (since they are German), seems unlikely they'll be able to use Lufthansa as using the airspace of Belarus was just advised against... From the same link as before (give it a read: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/05/24/european-council-conclusions-on-belarus-24-may-2021/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021...) > calls on all EU-based carriers to avoid overflight of Belarus
    - EugeneOZ 5y ago
      It doesn't matter, they’ll use private jets. You are trying to argue with the little details and missing the whole point. It will not hurt the elites. In the most worst case (if every EU airline will decide to not serve Belarusians), they’ll fly to Russia first and use some russian plane. Or just will use a car - what a tragedy, lol. And it's the ONLY response from EU leaders. Pathetic cowards. Lukashenko now got confirmation that such actions will not be punished.

mcky 5y ago

Worth noting in all of this that Belarus recently closed their land borders to citizens [1], under the guise of COVID, but in reality to stop people leaving. The only way out was flying from Minsk, which is now even less of an option if there are no flights to the EU. As others have said these sanctions will likely do more to harm the repressed citizens of the regime than Lukashenko [1] https://www.bnt.eu/cs/zpravy/pravni-novinky/3137-belarus-introduces-ban-on-leaving-the-country?layout=bnt:news https://www.bnt.eu/cs/zpravy/pravni-novinky/3137-belarus-int...

teekert 5y ago
"As others have said these sanctions will likely do more to harm the repressed citizens of the regime than the Lukashenko" I feel that that is true for almost all sanctions everywhere sadly. The Russians love their children too. In fact we have to really think hard on who they benefit, short and long term. Making markets more independent of each other is only making a war more likely. If goods don't cross borders armies will. What is a better alternative? I don't know, but perhaps targeted educational pieces, like scientific papers to educate populations? Yeah it sounds like propaganda, but perhaps one can add methods to verify claims or something? Show how exactly a policy is detrimental to the population in question? It's a hard problem, I'm not claiming otherwise.
- BurningFrog 5y ago
  > In fact we have to really think hard on who they benefit It will benefit air travellers whose planes will not get hijacked by the Belarus air force.
  - pavel_lishin 5y ago
    Forbidding non-Belarus based flights from flying over Belarus would accomplish that.
    - _ZeD_ 5y ago
      also treating this "incident" as a war act

anotheryou 5y ago

What an arbitrary sanction. What do Belarusian airlines have to do with any of this? The only value of picking airlines over anything else must be of symbolic nature. Unless maybe you see it as "balancing the competition" if other airlines loose the flights to belarus and have to use more fuel avoiding the airspace.

ddddq 5y ago

As a european (german) I can say, that this is mostly just show. Why? For once, only Belarus Airline will be suspended to fly in the EU. The other european airlines will still fly to and over Belarus, giving them money. For example, Lufthansa still wants to fly to Belarus and doesn't seem to care at all about solidarity with other european airlines. Money talks louder. And then people who don't have the time to research often don't know that Belarus is a important economical partner for german firms. The trade with Germany makes up around 5% of the GDP of Belarus and many german firms are (in)directly supporting Lukaschenko and his regime. It just isn't really known to the public. Therefor, if Germany really wanted it, big and impactful sanctions would easily be possible. The airline banning isn't really meaningful to Lukaschenko at all, they will rebrand the airline and fly from Moscow as Russia is their most important ally. And the thing is, that Germany still has the same problems with other trade partners. Germany still sells weapons to Turkey, Saudi-Arabia or Azerbaijan. Even if this countries did work or are currently working against european partners and neighbours. Even if these countries are violating human rights. A subject that Germany likes to teach to other european countries. Germany has the problem, that their economy is really connected and dependent on states that are violating human rights, are working and fighting against EU member states and are even starting to dictate german firms what they can and should do to be able to do their business (Belarus, Saudi-Arabia, Azerbaijan). It's levels above the USA and worse. One of the biggest firm in Germany, VW, is cooperating with Chinas ethnical cleansing and using Uyghurs working force as cheap labour. This or they just coincidentally build their new factories just hundreds of meters away from the concentration camps and Uyghurs are just coincidentally walking from the factory to the concentration camp.

GekkePrutser 5y ago
Turkey is still part of NATO. It would be a bit strange if NATO partners are supposed to defend one another but can't sell each other weapons :) Agree re. Saudi Arabia though. I'm surprised they still do that after Khasoggi.
- ddddq 5y ago
  I also agree that NATO members should sell and exchange knowledge. But Turkey is acting more and more hostile, also working against US interests and even against the interests of Greece, a important EU member state. That's why the US will open now new military bases in Greece. I just wanted to show, that Germany tries to sell and make profits from both sites. And this will be a problem in the future, if parts of your economy are depending on, what someone would call, hostile states to western interests. It's already now a problem with the EU-Russia political conflict, where Germany is the main reason for the passivity of the EU regarding Russia and their aggressivity against eastern european nations. Also a reason why Poland trusts the USA way more on this topic than Germany or Western Europe.

beyondcompute 5y ago

It feels like the ban hits ordinary citizens more. The rich and the powerful (including politicians) won’t be affected as much. :(

dzhiurgis 5y ago
Irritate citizens enough and they will start revolting. Tho life there is bad enough that they ain't got time for that when your instinct calls for survival.
- axiosgunnar 5y ago
  > Irritate citizens enough and they will start revolting. Like in Cuba?
- beyondcompute 5y ago
  I don’t know, I don’t buy the “let’s make people suffer so that they’ll revolt” logic. I don’t think that EU should make Belarus citizens suffer. And ideally there should be better internationally-sanctioned ways to replace disfunctional governments and (what’s more important) institutions.
  - dzhiurgis 5y ago
    Know better way? Let me know if the comments!

atemerev 5y ago

So, now every Belarusian who didn't agree with the regime and wanted to leave the country will be stuck there.

pessimizer 5y ago
The purpose of sanctions is to torture the civilian population until they are willing to tacitly support the revolution you're trying to foment.
- atemerev 5y ago
  There were peaceful mass protests every day since August, with millions of participants in some days. It didn’t help. Local police and state security tracks, jails and tortures the protest leaders and journalists. Or do you want a violent revolution instead?
MichaelMoser123 5y ago
Wouldn't they be able to cross the boarder into Lithuania by land?
- atemerev 5y ago
  Nope. There are border controls.
  - MichaelMoser123 5y ago
    transit via Moscow airport?
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

iansowinski 5y ago

I think that Giedroyc Doctrine is worth mentioning here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giedroyc_Doctrine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giedroyc_Doctrine

Sporktacular 5y ago

Politically convenient amnesia is on full display again: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/24/opinion/belarus-plane-protasevich.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/24/opinion/belarus-plane-pro... The US pressured Austria to do the same - for a head of state's airplane - while looking for Snowden. It's not whataboutism - both are abuses of power, but the sanctimony is just unbearable.

omgtehlion 5y ago
Yeah, but at least this have one minor difference: in Austria it was a government plane, lukashenka hijacked a civil plane.
Sporktacular 5y ago
May lose access due to lost password - if so will continue as Sporktacular2

Aeolun 5y ago

I don’t understand how any of this stuff is even ok. If any random person had done this, the police would be after them to arrest them for kidnapping, but because it’s a nation state doing this the only thing that happens is closed airspace? I feel like there should be something we can do that wouldn’t be a slap on the wrist.

matwood 5y ago
Welcome to the real world. Geopolitics are...complicated.
frereubu 5y ago
It's not. Lukashenko is bankrolled by Putin. You react too aggressively to Lukashenko and you're not just taking on Belarus, you're taking on Russia. Then Russia starts throttling gas supplies to Europe and so on and so on. As the sibling comment says, geopolitics are complicated.
- Aeolun 5y ago
  I think it’s really simple. It’s like walking away from the bully because you don’t like to fight (or are afraid you’ll get hurt), they’ll just do it again next time since the only thing that was reinforced was that there are no consequences. It’s just larger in scale.
scoopertrooper 5y ago
It's not okay, but international relations are not like personal relations. There is no police force to arrest the guilty. It's really the law of the jungle with a few marginal-to-non-enforceable 'laws' sprinkled on top.
reissbaker 5y ago
Because this is a state actor, you can't just send the police after them: they have fighter jets (and it was a fighter jet that grounded the plane). You have to ask whether you're willing to go to war, or impose collective punishment on the people of Belarus via something like sanctions. The EU has already taken diplomatic steps for previous offenses like barring Lukashenko personally from the EU, and the US has banned loans to the Belarussian government in the past as well — and those bans remain in place today. There are probably more diplomatic levers to pull, but TBH none of the existing ones have seemed to do anything. States are okay at enforcing laws within their borders without massive death or total economic destruction, but don't seem to be very effective at enforcing much inside of someone else's borders barring those options.

Giorgi 5y ago

Yes, that will show em

akie 5y ago
What do you suggest instead?

h3cate 5y ago

I suppose they'll be banning us airlines too for forcing the Bolivian PMs plane to land in Vienna when looking for Snowden?

75dvtwin 5y ago

One might, briefly, struggle with this question: Can a cabal of morally bankrupt bribe-takers wielding selective-outrage-justice weapons against own citizens (Marine Le Pen, Trump, and their supporters) be scolding another, less-presentable Dictator? And the Obama admin behavior [1] with the attempted Snowden plane intercept, is not much different either, I agree.. [1] https://www.france24.com/en/20130703-bolivia-president-evo-morales-airplane-rerouted-vienna-snowden https://www.france24.com/en/20130703-bolivia-president-evo-m...

liberty-bzmh 5y ago

既存の事実に基づくと、これは明らかな陰謀です。

garfieldnate 5y ago

That statement from Joe Biden really irks me, given the treatment of whistle blowers, most famously Edward Snowden, during his last administration.