35 ms·

'Finally, a virus got me’: Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects

196 points by akeck 6y ago

amelius 6y ago
> It turned out I had severe oxygen deficiency, although I still wasn’t short of breath. I've read about this pitfall before. It might be an idea to have a blood oxygen saturation meter at home to keep an eye on this.
- beamatronic 6y ago
  They to be about $25 and now they’re about 70, Thanks to price gouging
  - chrischen 6y ago
    What's the difference between price gouging and price increases due to shortages?
    - andi999 6y ago
      Thats easy: if you are politically left leaning it is price gouging, if not then it is supply and demand.
    - jhayward 6y ago
      Price gouging means you took stock on hand and re-priced it to gouge the desperate with no increase in cost to the seller. It also covers people who buy out the retail stock in 4 states to "corner" the supply, and then try to extort high prices for necessary goods due to an emergency. A price increase due to shortage is legitimate if it is new stock or production, brought online or made possible by a higher price that is now sought to satisfy demand.
      - andi999 6y ago
        I also believe a price increase to prevent shortage is legitimate (or actually good). If demand goes up prices shd go up so the buyer themselves can prioritise (if desinfect prices hiked immediately (some ppl would call it price gouging) buyers might not empty the shelves or at least more ppl had the chance to get something. But this needs to be done with stock on hand.
        jhayward 6y ago
        That's still price gouging, it merely re-allocates the supply from those that need it to those that can pay exorbitantly. It's not as though the wealthy have more legitimate need for the products.
        andi999 6y ago
        It doesnt merely do that. If like one liter of desinfectant costs 200US, still everybody can afford it, but everybody will think twice (actually not thinks twice, but dismiss the idea) of buying more than one bottle.
    - ken 6y ago
      IANAL (or economist), but I'd say price gouging is when hoarders raise prices to profit from artificial shortages that they created. As a people, we did not run low on hand sanitizer. As a free market, we ran low on hand sanitizer because a small minority decided they needed 10,000 bottles in their garage. When there exists plenty of product for everyone, and there are distribution networks by which we can get it to everyone who needs it, and yet opportunists insert themselves in the middle for no purpose other than to make a quick buck, I call that price gouging.
      - javagram 6y ago
        I’m pretty sure we actually did run low on hand sanitizer. Yes, there were some hoarders, but people also started buying and using a lot more sanitizer, the supply chain was overwhelmed. Companies didn’t have huge excess warehouses of the stuff ready to ship when demand suddenly spiked over the period of a few days.
        Raidion 6y ago
        I think he's referring to the feedback loop that hoarding causes. If you're confident you'll be able to buy the good in the future, you'll buy less now. If a hoarder clears out the supermarket, that means that everyone that shops at that supermarket and doesn't get what they want is more liable to make a larger purchase when do find it at another store. This chain reaction leads to shortages. It's impossible to prove the direct amount of causation (and of course organic demand spiked), but the relationship is clearly there.
        chrischen 6y ago
        I think he's specifically referring to the hoarders being the cause of the price increase in the first place and profiting off of their hoarding (correct me if I'm wrong). But that's definitely not the case with most shortages of things like PPE and alcohol. Most people are calling any price increase gouging, to the point where sites like eBay have simply banned anyone from selling masks at marked up prices. However they grandfathered some pre-existing sellers. Ironically this created a monopoly situation that has constrained supply which by definition means ebay is price gouging (since they make a percentage based fee on sales). If they simply let new sellers "price gouge", it would flood the supply and naturally lower prices for things like masks on eBay.
  - vmception 6y ago
    State-level State of Emergency declarations activate "price gouging" statutes, which have almost no way of including a pulse oximeter. The price gouging statutes are often codified to last 30 days, because if the state of emergency lasts longer than 30 days then something much much bigger must be occurring, something far outside the capabilities of that state. It looks like the legislatures were accurate. There is no reason to pay attention to any price gouging idea or statute anymore. There is a market price and that's it. If the state really wants to disrupt a market to alleviate cost pressures on their consumers, then they can subsidize over a particular price if it wishes. There is no interstate price gouging statute so basically any online merchant can conform any price around a different state's price gouging statute. When you see the Federal Government saying they are investigating price gouging, it doesn't mean anything, the Feds just extend enforcement resources to help a state enforce state level laws, which often don't apply to anything that's actually happening. When the state of emergency lasts forever you just have a market.
  - jansan 6y ago
    That's quite a moderate price increase compared to face masks. In January the price for a single surgical mask was about 6 Eurocents. Now you will pay about a Euro, if you are lucky.
  - cableshaft 6y ago
    If you're in the US, check eBay. There's a bunch being sold on there for only about $30. I got one for $25 off there about a month ago and it seems to work fine.
    - mattchew 6y ago
      Same with us.
  - 49531 6y ago
    You can find them for ~$30 on Amazon.
  - deathgrips 6y ago
    Good! This will reduce waste and allow firms to manufacture more at a greater marginal production cost.
  - bookofjoe 6y ago
    $34.99 at Walmart: https://www.walmart.com/ip/Heart-Pcs-Waterproof-Film-Large-Band-3-HUAWEI-Full-Blood-HONOR-Monitor-Bracelet-Watch-Faces-Oxygen-Customize-AMOLED-Rate-Color-SpO2-Smart-Soft-0-95-T/568301589?wmlspartner=wlpa&selectedSellerId=101001360 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Heart-Pcs-Waterproof-Film-Large-B...
- Noumenon72 6y ago
  The Samsung Health app on their Galaxy phones has a Stress Tracker that measures your blood oxygen saturation. You put your finger on the sensor and it shines light to measure your pulse and O2.
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    The caveat there is that it is reputed to be quite inaccurate, so it may be useful as an indicator, but it may also cause unnecessary distress.
  - sampo 6y ago
    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/question-should-smartphone-apps-be-used-as-oximeters-answer-no/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/question-should-smartphone-app... > It therefore requires the measurement of light transmission or reflection from a body segment such as a finger at two different wavelengths (usually in the red and infra-red). > The Samsung Galaxy series of phones had a red light emitting diode (LED) built into the phone in addition to the flash light and camera. There were no details released by the company of how its app used the LED to estimate oxygen saturation, but it appears from publicity material on YouTube that it worked via a single-wavelength measurement (albeit with a monochromatic light source, the LED) and therefore that oxygen saturation could not be accurately derived from it.
    - Noumenon72 6y ago
      > For the few patients whose oxygen saturation measurements were between 85% and 93%, the difference between the smartphone estimate and the ABG device varied between -5.5% and +2.5%. In other words, the readings become less accurate as the patient becomes more hypoxic. That's accurate enough to tell whether you have serious Covid in many cases, especially if your baseline reading is 99% like mine. "No evidence" has killed a lot of people in this pandemic by discouraging practices that work but haven't been RCT'd. "Should not be trusted" because something has error bars, even when they're smaller than the dangerous range, could kill even more. It's good to have the information out there that this is an inferior way to check, but I already assumed that was true just because it was only a phone app. "Possibly-inaccurate and free" is the choice I want to make with my health. I have low risk and it leaves more oximeters for others.
- dharma1 6y ago
  huawei honor band 5 has an SpO2 sensor, about $30. Your oxygen saturation should be 95-100%
- zaarn 6y ago
  I think the overall reason for that effect might be that CO2 can still be transported out properly (which is what your body uses to measure how much breath it's got) but not enough O2 in, which you don't notice happening at all other than oxygen deprivation symptoms.
- amalter 6y ago
  I sent out blood-ox monitors to all my family members after a discussion on COVID hypoxia with a MD friend. It’s never my favorite source, but in the US there are a number of Chinese companies with US shipping on EBay. I purchased 7 devices from “ConTec” at ~$26/each. All arrived and at least my unit read the same as a retail unit from Walgreens. Not trying to shill, there are a number of other sources with thousands of positive reviews.
jobu 6y ago
"Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives." There have also been reports of people in China with significantly reduced lung capacity even months after recovery. Still so many scary questions about the long-term effects of this virus, possibly the biggest ones being about the post-recovery immunity. How long does the immunity last and how encompassing is it?
- pl0x 6y ago
  There is so much we donot know about the long-term effects. It shocks me to Silicon Valley icons like Elon Musk, Paul Graham, and Justin Kan pushing to reopen and spreading conspiracy theories over building tools to understand the long term effects.
  - ignoramous 6y ago
    > It shocks me to Silicon Valley icons like Elon Musk, Paul Graham, and Justin Kan pushing to reopen... In fairness, they might be pushing to reopen to make the governments do better than rely on lockdown indefinitely. After all, necessity necessitates invention. One way to reopen and still be on top of the epidemic is accurate, fast, and cheap testing [0] at scale, so that, not only could people be tested repeatedly to curb the spread but also get a good overall data on the spread itself. Contact tracing, social distancing, and quarantine remains essential till a vaccine, or a prophylactic / therapeutic treatment is discovered. [0] Grant Sanderson, Simulating an Epidemic, https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/gxAaO2rsdIs https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/gxAaO2rsdIs
    - Red_Leaves_Flyy 6y ago
      Have you been tested?[1] I'd rather not get tested multiple times a month for months on end, thanks. 1.https://youtu.be/ssApeG-FBCU?t=1m37s https://youtu.be/ssApeG-FBCU?t=1m37s
jansan 6y ago
The German hospital Universitätsklinikum Hamburg Eppendorf (UKE) performed more than 190 autopsies of patients who died with COVID-19. In a study (where they covered the first 12 cases) they found an unusually high number of of thromboembolic events. Therfore they are now recommending a prophylactic heparin treatment (a commonly uses blood thinner to prevent thrombosis), even for ambulantory care. Here is the study: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2765934/autopsy-findings-venous-thromboembolism-patients-covid-19-prospective-cohort-study https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2765934/autopsy-findings-... And for those who speak German, here is their press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvH3mG-v0Ms https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvH3mG-v0Ms
- novaRom 6y ago
  Interesting, natural sunlight is also a strong blood thinner - can it be used as a treatment?
  - glormph 6y ago
    I had never heard that about sunlight before, but if true, it seems impractical to roll out ICU beds into the sun. (Not sure if patients outside of hospital would need blood thinning of course.) Edit: read too quick when typing "outside of hospital", ambulantory care has nothing to do with ambulances.
chvid 6y ago
“Let’s be clear: Without a coronavirus vaccine, we will never be able to live normally again. The only real exit strategy from this crisis is a vaccine that can be rolled out worldwide.” Worldwide? It is fair to expect this will take years. In the mean time what does normalcy look like? Sweden?
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  Yes, unless something important changes. Many places have published their pre-vaccine plan, and the restrictions have been pretty similar to what Sweden has.
  - adventured 6y ago
    This is interesting and I wonder if we could use it on our most vulnerable until a vaccine is ready (part of focusing on cutting the mortality rate further): "Sorrento Therapeutics and Mount Sinai Health System in New York City have joined forces to develop an antibody cocktail they hope will shield against Covid-19 infection for up to two months. The treatment, called COVI-SHIELD, is designed to be administered as often as necessary, with each dose expected to provide antiviral protection for health care and other essential workers." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/sorrento-therapeutics-mount-sinai-develop-covid-19-antibody-shield.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/sorrento-therapeutics-mount-...
    - vikramkr 6y ago
      Theres a risk of antibody dependent enhancement (antibodies backfire and lead to worse disease) with coronavirus antibody cocktails based on what we know about SARS. There are efforts to develop monoclonal antibodies that are selected to avoid ADE if that turns out to be a problem, so maybe a passive vaccine like that could be viable
- rustybelt 6y ago
  With the death rate is so slow for large portions of the population, the vaccine will have basically no margin for error. How do you convince parents to vaccinate kids for a disease that has say a .001% fatality rate for those under 17 unless the vaccine is even safer?
fermienrico 6y ago
How are people catching COVID-19? It would be good to hear plausible scenarios of how people still catch it despite of masks and social distancing. There is something to learn from each story. And I see a distinct lack of focus on anecdotal stories of how people think they caught it. How the fuck are people catching this disease?
- Marsymars 6y ago
  I expect mostly poor hygiene when it comes to touching contaminated things and faces. I basically can't go out in public without seeing someone with their mask pulled down to talk/eat/smoke. You should be sanitizing your hands every single time you don or doff a mask.
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    There have been studies of influenza that suggest nearly 100% of all transmission occurs through coughing & sneezing and inhaling the output. To a close approximation, handwashing does exactly zero to stop it from spreading. Scientists seem to think the same is likely true for SC2. Which isn't to say you shouldn't wash your hands, because there are other things you get on your hand which can make you ill. It means keep the damn mask on, and don't take it off until you're well out of range of other people.
    - taeric 6y ago
      This has been nagging me. Feels like we are dangerously close to many taking "precautions" as a signaling move more than being cautious. :(
    - Johnjonjoan 6y ago
      If you're going to say hand washing doesn't affect transmission rates please at the very least post sources. If that turns out to be misinformation it could be extremely dangerous advice.
  - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
2Xheadpalm 6y ago
Little Peter needs funding.. Hmmm, I better tow the WHO party line!
guscost 6y ago
> That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair. Do viral epidemiologists have much insight about the effects of economic depression, combined with all-but-unprecedented fear and social isolation, on public health? Do they have any at all? This comes across as incredibly arrogant, and just as unfair.
- Caligatio 6y ago
  There's a huge difference between criticizing the people/science and criticizing the decision. We collectively need to have a real conversation about the pros/cons/risks of reopening parts of society. However, we're stuck in this rut of just calling the science bad (it's not) in order to avoid talking about the harsh reality of increased death rate.
battery_cowboy 6y ago
There's so much conflicting information out there right now that I'm not even listening to it. I'm wearing masks and avoiding people, because my wife has bad lungs and I have a 6 month old. Until there's more facts that are rock solid, all anyone is doing is speculating. The real issue here is lack of consistency and leadership from the top levels of government (USA here). If we had a consistent message from the experts and politicians together, then there would be less speculation, less fighting over lockdowns, less misinformation, and less grasping at straws guessing what the virus is doing. Instead, we (Americans in aggregate) have lost trust in both the experts and politicians, which is resulting in major issues. The deadliness of the virus isn't the major issue, it's the infighting that's preventing us from fixing it that's the issue now and will result in more dead.
- afarrell 6y ago
  When you walk around outside, are you also carrying an umbrella? Because cloth masks aren't that effective at protecting the wearer and I don't see how else you can prevent someone else from getting close to you.
  - battery_cowboy 6y ago
    I had n95 masks saved from the fires around me in previous years, but i generally don't run into people where i live so i can skip the mask when outdoors. People generally stay away from each other where i live, too. I don't live in a big city, so it's easier for me. But like i said before, I don't care about what people say about the efficacy of masks, i will wear one anyways. Your comment had no bearing on my plan to keep doing so, because, like i said, i don't trust any "facts" about this virus right now, so i default to the most safe choice: wearing a mask.
    - afarrell 6y ago
      oh sure. And good that you aren't finding it hard to keep distance. Stay healthy fellow human.
  - graeme 6y ago
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
op00to 6y ago
I’m so, so sad.
balb0a 6y ago
In Slovenia we did random sample testing. Out of this we concluded that 3% of population had covid-19. This is 60000 people of which ~100 people die. This gives death rate around 0.17. Majority were people in elderly homes with many other diseases.
- vkou 6y ago
  Serology testing is incredibly inaccurate, and has a ~2-3% false positive rate.
  - balb0a 6y ago
    I agree that tests have a high false positive rate, but still how would you interpret results we got?
- Isinlor 6y ago
  NYC has population fatality ratio of 0.17% to 0.23%. 8.4 million people and 14,753 confirmed COVID-19 deaths [0]. They have also 5,178 probable COVID-19 deaths. In other words, around 1 person per 500 overall died due COVID-19. Serology tests shows that only one in 5 people had the disease [1]. So the population fatality rate could still go up to 1 in 200. Imagine a wedding party, then imagine one person dead and 5 hospitalized, that's how bad it can get. There are very similar statistics in Bergamo, Italy and on board of Diamond Princess. Well, Diamond Process has infection fatality rate of 1.8% - 13 people out of 712 infected died. [0] https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-anti...
  - balb0a 6y ago
    I am just pointing this out because severe seasonal flu that appears in some years has reportingly ~0.1 fatality rate. Then my explanation would be that those two are comparable. Except covid spreads faster and therefore we see more death in shorter period? Please poke holes in my theory:) I would like to se poking holes in my theory:)

196 points by akeck 6y ago

> It turned out I had severe oxygen deficiency, although I still wasn’t short of breath. I've read about this pitfall before. It might be an idea to have a blood oxygen saturation meter at home to keep an eye on this.

beamatronic 6y ago
They to be about $25 and now they’re about 70, Thanks to price gouging
- chrischen 6y ago
  What's the difference between price gouging and price increases due to shortages?
  - andi999 6y ago
    Thats easy: if you are politically left leaning it is price gouging, if not then it is supply and demand.
  - jhayward 6y ago
    Price gouging means you took stock on hand and re-priced it to gouge the desperate with no increase in cost to the seller. It also covers people who buy out the retail stock in 4 states to "corner" the supply, and then try to extort high prices for necessary goods due to an emergency. A price increase due to shortage is legitimate if it is new stock or production, brought online or made possible by a higher price that is now sought to satisfy demand.
    - andi999 6y ago
      I also believe a price increase to prevent shortage is legitimate (or actually good). If demand goes up prices shd go up so the buyer themselves can prioritise (if desinfect prices hiked immediately (some ppl would call it price gouging) buyers might not empty the shelves or at least more ppl had the chance to get something. But this needs to be done with stock on hand.
      - jhayward 6y ago
        That's still price gouging, it merely re-allocates the supply from those that need it to those that can pay exorbitantly. It's not as though the wealthy have more legitimate need for the products.
        andi999 6y ago
        It doesnt merely do that. If like one liter of desinfectant costs 200US, still everybody can afford it, but everybody will think twice (actually not thinks twice, but dismiss the idea) of buying more than one bottle.
  - ken 6y ago
    IANAL (or economist), but I'd say price gouging is when hoarders raise prices to profit from artificial shortages that they created. As a people, we did not run low on hand sanitizer. As a free market, we ran low on hand sanitizer because a small minority decided they needed 10,000 bottles in their garage. When there exists plenty of product for everyone, and there are distribution networks by which we can get it to everyone who needs it, and yet opportunists insert themselves in the middle for no purpose other than to make a quick buck, I call that price gouging.
    - javagram 6y ago
      I’m pretty sure we actually did run low on hand sanitizer. Yes, there were some hoarders, but people also started buying and using a lot more sanitizer, the supply chain was overwhelmed. Companies didn’t have huge excess warehouses of the stuff ready to ship when demand suddenly spiked over the period of a few days.
      - Raidion 6y ago
        I think he's referring to the feedback loop that hoarding causes. If you're confident you'll be able to buy the good in the future, you'll buy less now. If a hoarder clears out the supermarket, that means that everyone that shops at that supermarket and doesn't get what they want is more liable to make a larger purchase when do find it at another store. This chain reaction leads to shortages. It's impossible to prove the direct amount of causation (and of course organic demand spiked), but the relationship is clearly there.
        chrischen 6y ago
        I think he's specifically referring to the hoarders being the cause of the price increase in the first place and profiting off of their hoarding (correct me if I'm wrong). But that's definitely not the case with most shortages of things like PPE and alcohol. Most people are calling any price increase gouging, to the point where sites like eBay have simply banned anyone from selling masks at marked up prices. However they grandfathered some pre-existing sellers. Ironically this created a monopoly situation that has constrained supply which by definition means ebay is price gouging (since they make a percentage based fee on sales). If they simply let new sellers "price gouge", it would flood the supply and naturally lower prices for things like masks on eBay.
- vmception 6y ago
  State-level State of Emergency declarations activate "price gouging" statutes, which have almost no way of including a pulse oximeter. The price gouging statutes are often codified to last 30 days, because if the state of emergency lasts longer than 30 days then something much much bigger must be occurring, something far outside the capabilities of that state. It looks like the legislatures were accurate. There is no reason to pay attention to any price gouging idea or statute anymore. There is a market price and that's it. If the state really wants to disrupt a market to alleviate cost pressures on their consumers, then they can subsidize over a particular price if it wishes. There is no interstate price gouging statute so basically any online merchant can conform any price around a different state's price gouging statute. When you see the Federal Government saying they are investigating price gouging, it doesn't mean anything, the Feds just extend enforcement resources to help a state enforce state level laws, which often don't apply to anything that's actually happening. When the state of emergency lasts forever you just have a market.
- jansan 6y ago
  That's quite a moderate price increase compared to face masks. In January the price for a single surgical mask was about 6 Eurocents. Now you will pay about a Euro, if you are lucky.
- cableshaft 6y ago
  If you're in the US, check eBay. There's a bunch being sold on there for only about $30. I got one for $25 off there about a month ago and it seems to work fine.
  - mattchew 6y ago
    Same with us.
- 49531 6y ago
  You can find them for ~$30 on Amazon.
- deathgrips 6y ago
  Good! This will reduce waste and allow firms to manufacture more at a greater marginal production cost.
- bookofjoe 6y ago
  $34.99 at Walmart: https://www.walmart.com/ip/Heart-Pcs-Waterproof-Film-Large-Band-3-HUAWEI-Full-Blood-HONOR-Monitor-Bracelet-Watch-Faces-Oxygen-Customize-AMOLED-Rate-Color-SpO2-Smart-Soft-0-95-T/568301589?wmlspartner=wlpa&selectedSellerId=101001360 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Heart-Pcs-Waterproof-Film-Large-B...
Noumenon72 6y ago
The Samsung Health app on their Galaxy phones has a Stress Tracker that measures your blood oxygen saturation. You put your finger on the sensor and it shines light to measure your pulse and O2.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  The caveat there is that it is reputed to be quite inaccurate, so it may be useful as an indicator, but it may also cause unnecessary distress.
- sampo 6y ago
  https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/question-should-smartphone-apps-be-used-as-oximeters-answer-no/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/question-should-smartphone-app... > It therefore requires the measurement of light transmission or reflection from a body segment such as a finger at two different wavelengths (usually in the red and infra-red). > The Samsung Galaxy series of phones had a red light emitting diode (LED) built into the phone in addition to the flash light and camera. There were no details released by the company of how its app used the LED to estimate oxygen saturation, but it appears from publicity material on YouTube that it worked via a single-wavelength measurement (albeit with a monochromatic light source, the LED) and therefore that oxygen saturation could not be accurately derived from it.
  - Noumenon72 6y ago
    > For the few patients whose oxygen saturation measurements were between 85% and 93%, the difference between the smartphone estimate and the ABG device varied between -5.5% and +2.5%. In other words, the readings become less accurate as the patient becomes more hypoxic. That's accurate enough to tell whether you have serious Covid in many cases, especially if your baseline reading is 99% like mine. "No evidence" has killed a lot of people in this pandemic by discouraging practices that work but haven't been RCT'd. "Should not be trusted" because something has error bars, even when they're smaller than the dangerous range, could kill even more. It's good to have the information out there that this is an inferior way to check, but I already assumed that was true just because it was only a phone app. "Possibly-inaccurate and free" is the choice I want to make with my health. I have low risk and it leaves more oximeters for others.
dharma1 6y ago
huawei honor band 5 has an SpO2 sensor, about $30. Your oxygen saturation should be 95-100%
zaarn 6y ago
I think the overall reason for that effect might be that CO2 can still be transported out properly (which is what your body uses to measure how much breath it's got) but not enough O2 in, which you don't notice happening at all other than oxygen deprivation symptoms.
amalter 6y ago
I sent out blood-ox monitors to all my family members after a discussion on COVID hypoxia with a MD friend. It’s never my favorite source, but in the US there are a number of Chinese companies with US shipping on EBay. I purchased 7 devices from “ConTec” at ~$26/each. All arrived and at least my unit read the same as a retail unit from Walgreens. Not trying to shill, there are a number of other sources with thousands of positive reviews.

jobu 6y ago

"Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives." There have also been reports of people in China with significantly reduced lung capacity even months after recovery. Still so many scary questions about the long-term effects of this virus, possibly the biggest ones being about the post-recovery immunity. How long does the immunity last and how encompassing is it?

pl0x 6y ago
There is so much we donot know about the long-term effects. It shocks me to Silicon Valley icons like Elon Musk, Paul Graham, and Justin Kan pushing to reopen and spreading conspiracy theories over building tools to understand the long term effects.
- ignoramous 6y ago
  > It shocks me to Silicon Valley icons like Elon Musk, Paul Graham, and Justin Kan pushing to reopen... In fairness, they might be pushing to reopen to make the governments do better than rely on lockdown indefinitely. After all, necessity necessitates invention. One way to reopen and still be on top of the epidemic is accurate, fast, and cheap testing [0] at scale, so that, not only could people be tested repeatedly to curb the spread but also get a good overall data on the spread itself. Contact tracing, social distancing, and quarantine remains essential till a vaccine, or a prophylactic / therapeutic treatment is discovered. [0] Grant Sanderson, Simulating an Epidemic, https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/gxAaO2rsdIs https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/gxAaO2rsdIs
  - Red_Leaves_Flyy 6y ago
    Have you been tested?[1] I'd rather not get tested multiple times a month for months on end, thanks. 1.https://youtu.be/ssApeG-FBCU?t=1m37s https://youtu.be/ssApeG-FBCU?t=1m37s

jansan 6y ago

The German hospital Universitätsklinikum Hamburg Eppendorf (UKE) performed more than 190 autopsies of patients who died with COVID-19. In a study (where they covered the first 12 cases) they found an unusually high number of of thromboembolic events. Therfore they are now recommending a prophylactic heparin treatment (a commonly uses blood thinner to prevent thrombosis), even for ambulantory care. Here is the study: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2765934/autopsy-findings-venous-thromboembolism-patients-covid-19-prospective-cohort-study https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2765934/autopsy-findings-... And for those who speak German, here is their press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvH3mG-v0Ms https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvH3mG-v0Ms

novaRom 6y ago
Interesting, natural sunlight is also a strong blood thinner - can it be used as a treatment?
- glormph 6y ago
  I had never heard that about sunlight before, but if true, it seems impractical to roll out ICU beds into the sun. (Not sure if patients outside of hospital would need blood thinning of course.) Edit: read too quick when typing "outside of hospital", ambulantory care has nothing to do with ambulances.

chvid 6y ago

“Let’s be clear: Without a coronavirus vaccine, we will never be able to live normally again. The only real exit strategy from this crisis is a vaccine that can be rolled out worldwide.” Worldwide? It is fair to expect this will take years. In the mean time what does normalcy look like? Sweden?

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
Yes, unless something important changes. Many places have published their pre-vaccine plan, and the restrictions have been pretty similar to what Sweden has.
- adventured 6y ago
  This is interesting and I wonder if we could use it on our most vulnerable until a vaccine is ready (part of focusing on cutting the mortality rate further): "Sorrento Therapeutics and Mount Sinai Health System in New York City have joined forces to develop an antibody cocktail they hope will shield against Covid-19 infection for up to two months. The treatment, called COVI-SHIELD, is designed to be administered as often as necessary, with each dose expected to provide antiviral protection for health care and other essential workers." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/sorrento-therapeutics-mount-sinai-develop-covid-19-antibody-shield.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/sorrento-therapeutics-mount-...
  - vikramkr 6y ago
    Theres a risk of antibody dependent enhancement (antibodies backfire and lead to worse disease) with coronavirus antibody cocktails based on what we know about SARS. There are efforts to develop monoclonal antibodies that are selected to avoid ADE if that turns out to be a problem, so maybe a passive vaccine like that could be viable
rustybelt 6y ago
With the death rate is so slow for large portions of the population, the vaccine will have basically no margin for error. How do you convince parents to vaccinate kids for a disease that has say a .001% fatality rate for those under 17 unless the vaccine is even safer?

fermienrico 6y ago

How are people catching COVID-19? It would be good to hear plausible scenarios of how people still catch it despite of masks and social distancing. There is something to learn from each story. And I see a distinct lack of focus on anecdotal stories of how people think they caught it. How the fuck are people catching this disease?

Marsymars 6y ago
I expect mostly poor hygiene when it comes to touching contaminated things and faces. I basically can't go out in public without seeing someone with their mask pulled down to talk/eat/smoke. You should be sanitizing your hands every single time you don or doff a mask.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  There have been studies of influenza that suggest nearly 100% of all transmission occurs through coughing & sneezing and inhaling the output. To a close approximation, handwashing does exactly zero to stop it from spreading. Scientists seem to think the same is likely true for SC2. Which isn't to say you shouldn't wash your hands, because there are other things you get on your hand which can make you ill. It means keep the damn mask on, and don't take it off until you're well out of range of other people.
  - taeric 6y ago
    This has been nagging me. Feels like we are dangerously close to many taking "precautions" as a signaling move more than being cautious. :(
  - Johnjonjoan 6y ago
    If you're going to say hand washing doesn't affect transmission rates please at the very least post sources. If that turns out to be misinformation it could be extremely dangerous advice.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago

2Xheadpalm 6y ago

Little Peter needs funding.. Hmmm, I better tow the WHO party line!

guscost 6y ago

> That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair. Do viral epidemiologists have much insight about the effects of economic depression, combined with all-but-unprecedented fear and social isolation, on public health? Do they have any at all? This comes across as incredibly arrogant, and just as unfair.

Caligatio 6y ago
There's a huge difference between criticizing the people/science and criticizing the decision. We collectively need to have a real conversation about the pros/cons/risks of reopening parts of society. However, we're stuck in this rut of just calling the science bad (it's not) in order to avoid talking about the harsh reality of increased death rate.

battery_cowboy 6y ago

There's so much conflicting information out there right now that I'm not even listening to it. I'm wearing masks and avoiding people, because my wife has bad lungs and I have a 6 month old. Until there's more facts that are rock solid, all anyone is doing is speculating. The real issue here is lack of consistency and leadership from the top levels of government (USA here). If we had a consistent message from the experts and politicians together, then there would be less speculation, less fighting over lockdowns, less misinformation, and less grasping at straws guessing what the virus is doing. Instead, we (Americans in aggregate) have lost trust in both the experts and politicians, which is resulting in major issues. The deadliness of the virus isn't the major issue, it's the infighting that's preventing us from fixing it that's the issue now and will result in more dead.

afarrell 6y ago
When you walk around outside, are you also carrying an umbrella? Because cloth masks aren't that effective at protecting the wearer and I don't see how else you can prevent someone else from getting close to you.
- battery_cowboy 6y ago
  I had n95 masks saved from the fires around me in previous years, but i generally don't run into people where i live so i can skip the mask when outdoors. People generally stay away from each other where i live, too. I don't live in a big city, so it's easier for me. But like i said before, I don't care about what people say about the efficacy of masks, i will wear one anyways. Your comment had no bearing on my plan to keep doing so, because, like i said, i don't trust any "facts" about this virus right now, so i default to the most safe choice: wearing a mask.
  - afarrell 6y ago
    oh sure. And good that you aren't finding it hard to keep distance. Stay healthy fellow human.
- graeme 6y ago

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

op00to 6y ago

I’m so, so sad.

balb0a 6y ago

In Slovenia we did random sample testing. Out of this we concluded that 3% of population had covid-19. This is 60000 people of which ~100 people die. This gives death rate around 0.17. Majority were people in elderly homes with many other diseases.

vkou 6y ago
Serology testing is incredibly inaccurate, and has a ~2-3% false positive rate.
- balb0a 6y ago
  I agree that tests have a high false positive rate, but still how would you interpret results we got?
Isinlor 6y ago
NYC has population fatality ratio of 0.17% to 0.23%. 8.4 million people and 14,753 confirmed COVID-19 deaths [0]. They have also 5,178 probable COVID-19 deaths. In other words, around 1 person per 500 overall died due COVID-19. Serology tests shows that only one in 5 people had the disease [1]. So the population fatality rate could still go up to 1 in 200. Imagine a wedding party, then imagine one person dead and 5 hospitalized, that's how bad it can get. There are very similar statistics in Bergamo, Italy and on board of Diamond Princess. Well, Diamond Process has infection fatality rate of 1.8% - 13 people out of 712 infected died. [0] https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-anti...
- balb0a 6y ago
  I am just pointing this out because severe seasonal flu that appears in some years has reportingly ~0.1 fatality rate. Then my explanation would be that those two are comparable. Except covid spreads faster and therefore we see more death in shorter period? Please poke holes in my theory:) I would like to se poking holes in my theory:)